Ichorid's Tipping Point

[Grand Inquisitor]

Ichorid has placed highly and consistently over the last few weeks on both sides of the ocean:

TMD Open
CVL
Chicago
Zurich

What has traditionally had the reputation as a powerful but fragile deck, is now much more firmly on the radar of the Vintage community.  What has caused the shift?

I'm not nearly as familiar with the archetype as others here, but I'll posit a few factors that seem likely to me and hopefully discussion will follow:

1) Kill condition ~ with players going with a reasonably wide variety of dread return targets (or no dread returns at all), recent lists have seemed to focus on using Flame-Kin Zealot, sometimes backed up by Angel of Despair (the TMD Open list breaks this trend)

2) Sideboard ~ especially compared with the earlier lists, the recent sideboard configurations seem to have a better mix of answers to a combination of creature, artifact and enchantment hate.

3) Metagame ~ partly related to the previous two points, the metagame has evolved to a point where Ichorid can focus its maindeck disruption and its sideboard answers to counteract the current top strategies.  This could include a much more complicated explanation, but I'll just use the example that few of the top decks are heavily grave dependent, allowing leyline of the void to be dropped from many maindecks.  Similarly, many of the top decks are much more dependent on artifact acceleration (relative to the pre-restriction metagame), making this a much more potent early game play.

4) Popularity ~ the accusations of Ichorid being easily foiled, outplayed or succumbing to its own mulligans have been shown as overstated.  People have begun playing the deck in larger numbers (perhaps closer to its real EV) and the results are latent proof of the deck's viability.

What do people think?

[Smmenen]

I agree completely!

Ichorid has been consistently underestimated over the last year.    For a very long time now I've been advocating no less than 7-8 anti-ichorid cards in every decklist I run.    After losing to Ichorid at the Prelims tournament to the Vintage Championship last year, I have been telling everyone playing TPS to board no less than 8 anti-ichorid cards. 

There is also one very, very important point I would add: there is an assumption that Ichorid is not very skill intensive.  I can remember alot of people making this claim.   I believe it's very wrong.   In some ways, and I hate to say this because I think that Ichorid is a good thing for Vintage, in that there is another viable deck, but it reminds me alot of Trinistax in this sense:  One game is going to be a one-sided blowout, but there are two very interactive and highly interesting games.

When you get your hate online, Ichorid goes into this mode where it uses its mana, resources, discard, and answers and draw (i.e. bazaar filtering) to try and assemble the exact combination of cards that will beat you.   I watched a TON of Ichorid matches both at GP Chicago Vintage side event and at the Waterbury, and I noticed how highly interactive these games were and how they were always decided by superior play skill, time and again.   Knowing when to use bazaar, what to play (i.e. do you play a second bazaar?), what not to play, what to sideboard, what to take out, all are hugely important.   most Ichorid players can point to mistakes that contributed to their game losses, despite the opposing hate.

EDIT:

There is also one very, very important point to make.

Ichorid went from being somewhat marginal, albeit very interesting before Future Sight, to an amazing option.   The problem is that for the entire first year of Ichorids post-Future Sight (i.e. Narcomoeba + Bridge From Below) existence, Flash was in the format as well.   Thus, every single sideboard in the format had 4 Leyline of the Void.   Since last July, the number and amount of anti-ichorid hate fell off accordingly. 

Thus, from June 20 2007 through June 20, 2008, Ichorid's numbers were mediocre at best.  But since then, it's become a better performer, and I think it is directly attributable, not just to the factors you mentioned, but to the dissapearance of Flash and thus LOTV from sideboards as well.

One last fact, which I've repeated many times: If there is an Ichorid in a top 8, chances are at least 25% that you'll face it.  To me, if my goal is to win a tournament, then that's like constructing a metagame where 25% of the field is Ichorid.  Ignoring it is stupid.  If there are two, they are better than 50% that  you'll face it.   Trying to get "lucky" by not running Anti-Ichorid hate is a recipe for not winning tournaments.   You might make top 8, by dropping a swiss round to it, but it's unacceptable to simply try and pass on it if you genuinely want to win the whole thing. 

[Troy_Costisick]

I'll just quote myself from earlier today in this thread:  http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=37631.0

Wow, Ichorid is coming out of nowhere lately!  Are people just not building their sideboards correctly?

What do you mean correctly, you start your post out shocked that ichorid is winning again. Well if ichorid isn't winning alot then you can safely take some of the hate out of your sideboard until it starts winning again.

PS, that means put the Ichorid hate back in your sideboards people.  Make it go away!

Yeah...that's what I'm saying.  I think with Flash and Dragon Combo decks gone, a lot of the GY hate is being traded out for Artifact hate.  It's natural, really, if such a shift in sideboards is taking place.  (I would note that Leyline of the Void was only the 15th most played card and Tormod's Crypt dropped to the 11th according to Morphling.de, that's quite a drop from last September which was just before all the new restrictions and printings took effect).  Ichorid made up just over 5% of the top 8's in the last bi-monthly metagame report by Steven.  If these signigicant showings continue, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ichorid double that next time.

[sundering jerk]

There is also one very, very important point I would add: there is an assumption that Ichorid is not very skill intensive.  I can remember alot of people making this claim.   I believe it's very wrong.   In some ways, and I hate to say this because I think that Ichorid is a good thing for Vintage, in that there is another viable deck, but it reminds me alot of Trinistax in this sense:  One game is going to be a one-sided blowout, but there are two very interactive and highly interesting games.

When you get your hate online, Ichorid goes into this mode where it uses its mana, resources, discard, and answers and draw (i.e. bazaar filtering) to try and assemble the exact combination of cards that will beat you.   I watched a TON of Ichorid matches both at GP Chicago Vintage side event and at the Waterbury, and I noticed how highly interactive these games were and how they were always decided by superior play skill, time and again.   Knowing when to use bazaar, what to play (i.e. do you play a second bazaar?), what not to play, what to sideboard, what to take out, all are hugely important.   

The first paragraph is completely right by stating that ichorid has the consistency to guarantee game one, but for games two and three I don't agree that their is real interaction. You either know when to pop tormod's/relic or you don't, while you wait and see who draws better cards. Why wouldn't this deck be on the rise now that leyline is gone from the meta?!

I really wish WOT cared enough to listen more before the B&R list posting. If you lose to ichorid it's your own fault for not SBing 7-15 cards against them, but I really miss playing a format where I can use all 15 slots and not dedicate half to the least fun match ever.

It's easy, it's cheap, and you only need to get lucky enough to win game 2 or 3 post side. This is a perfect beginner deck as well.

Also now that Flash, Ponder, Bstorm are gone it is a lot harder to dig for the same amount of hate as we used to or to just win faster which means that we must mulligan more cause we know that we are on a 2-3 turn clock.

[vassago]

you only need to get lucky enough to win game 2 or 3 post side.

Also now that Flash, Ponder, Bstorm are gone it is a lot harder to dig for the same amount of hate as we used to or to just win faster which means that we must mulligan more cause we know that we are on a 2-3 turn clock.

I dont know how I feel about the first statement.  Sometimes it seems like its the other way around for the dredge player, depending on the draw.  We have a quasi decent dredge player here in our local area, and this is how I have seen games go: Lop sided draws for either side post board, or a continuous battle for board position and/or for card advantage.  Most of the time, its exactly how Stephen says, the on going struggle for advantage and really decent games to play actually. It pretty much boils down to that point on play skill and top decking. 

Well I think the reason why you need at 7-8 sideboard options for dredge now is the lack of cheap draw spells that we were used too back then. 

[jamestosetti]

Once you know what your doing with the deck its hard not to play it. I'd say it's going to to be a strong choice for a while at least. Once you know how to s/b you can wipe out some incredible hate. That's part of the reason I like to use extirpate against ichorid. I agree half your s/b for ichorid seems dull at first but once you play the deck yourself the match up becomes funner.

[nataz]

I've been playing ichorid forever, and I'm pretty sure that Fatesticher is going to push ichorid into the top tier. It will do well for a short period of time, and then people will figure out how to sideboard. It's not just leylines that are the issue. People are getting smarter about sb'ing against dredge. Jailer, Crypt, Relic, and Leyline among others are all great cards.

The trick is to diversify. A good mix of 4 jailers, relic, crypt, needle and then something random that has splash dmg (like artifact hate for needles or chalice, or wasteland/strip) will wreak havoc with an ichorid players. Sure, sometimes they will have the contagion for the Jailer, and sometimes they'll have the charm for the leyline, but the more diverse answers you run, the more likely it is for them to have the wrong answer at the wrong time.

[Tha Gunslinga]

I think we'll start to see more maindeck hate.  It's not hard to fit one or two Crypts or Relics in your main, especially if you're playing a deck with Thirst for Knowledge or Tezzeret.  I'm running a Tormod's Crypt maindeck in Painter, to go with my two Trinket Mages, and the sideboard has 3 Relics and 2 Pithing Needles as well.

[Harlequin]

The first paragraph is completely right by stating that ichorid has the consistency to guarantee game one, but for games two and three I don't agree that their is real interaction. You either know when to pop tormod's/relic or you don't, while you wait and see who draws better cards. Why wouldn't this deck be on the rise now that leyline is gone from the meta?!

My top-8 match day 2 of TMD vrs Ichorid was the most interactive match I had all weekend.  It was a very intense match, where I had to use all my resources and play flawlessly to pull out a 2-1 win including a game 1 win.  It was truely a technical battle and my oppenent was formitable.  Day 1 I played almost all Tezz mirrors, and I was actually shocked how non-interactive the Tezz mirror is.  Every Tezz mirror I played was a blowout one way or the other, there was basically nothing the other player could do to stop the winner.  Day 2 I played Fish, which at least forced some level of interaction... but again in the Tezz match I either got completely blow away, or could protected null rod and shut them out of the game completely.   

I think people need to put more thought into WHAT they bring in, what they keep in, and focus less on HOW MUCH they bring in.  I think people who complain about Dredge being non-interactive don't actually know what it takes to beat the deck - and don't fully understand that the deck is weak to more than just graveyard hosing.  For example: I've seen more people board out Misdirrection against Ichorid than I've seen people keep it in.

I boarded in 9 cards for the ichorid match: 4 Children of Korlis, 2 Jitte, 2 STP, 2 Tormods, 1 Relic.  Only 3 of of which were actual "Ichorid Hate" cards... the rest were splash hate.  My plan against dredge is:
1) avoid zombies at all costs, RFG bridges early and often
2) and then I only have to beat Narcos and Ichys.   

As Jared was saying, diversity is your best answer to Ichorid.  I would add to that, true understanding of the match is another requirement for success.

[Grand Inquisitor]

It seems like people don't agree with the idea that Ichorid is genuinely viable, and that it is instead a function of metagame hate:

a lot of the GY hate is being traded out for Artifact hate

Why wouldn't this deck be on the rise now that leyline is gone from the meta?

I guess there's a slight concession that cheap diggers have played a factor in its relative power:

harder to dig for the same amount of hate

lack of cheap draw spells that we were used too back then

Fatesticher is going to push ichorid into the top tier...It will do well for a short period of time, and then people will figure out how to sideboard...The trick is to diversify.

These comments seem somewhat paradoxical.  Not that this is the place for discussing tiers, but I perceive a good deck to be one that can hold a prominent place in the metagame despite what hate everyone else is packing.

As far as other decks diversifying hate, I can only attest to what I saw Saturday.  Most of the people I saw had 6+ slots with a combination of jailer/crypt/extirpate/needle; they seemed prepared.  We'll have to wait to see how many total Ichorid decks there were relative to high placements, but at least one was able to navigate what seemed to be a well prepared field.

There's only a few posts, but people seem divided on whether a talented Ichorid player can successfully beat dedicated hate or if it's just a matter of dialing up the metagame response.

[nataz]

There's only a few posts, but people seem divided on whether a talented Ichorid player can successfully beat dedicated hate or if it's just a matter of dialing up the metagame response.

It's not really a paradox, its just how people look at deckbuilding. Think how much the existance of drain based decks influences our deck building. Same with Dark ritual decks. No one is going to run a deck out there that has no game plan against Drains or Rituals because we are so used to dealing with them. Not only are answers in our sideboard, we answer them with cards and stratigies out of the maindeck. Ichorid, on the other hand, is fairly new.

Very few people set out when they are building a deck and go, okay, we have to deal with Drains, shops, aggro, dark ritual, AND ichorid. Its more like all the rest, and then cram a couple of sideboard cards in and hope to deal. People don't like the extra constraints, they don't like the added difficulty of another point on the metagame star.

The thing is, Ichorid is really good at wining game 1, but thats only half because its a good deck. The other half of the reason is because almost nothing is prepared for it in the maindeck. With all the manipulation in type 1, if every deck packed 1-2 maindeck answers to ichorid its game 1 win % would go waaaay down, and we already know how much it can struggle in g2/3.

so sure, Ichorid is good enough when people don't test against it, when people don't understand finer points in the match up, when people don't build their deck expecting it, and when people use their sideboard as a crutch. Its just too narrow to win consistantly if people are prepared.

thankfully as someone who plays ichorid, very few people really prepare. 

[meadbert]

Basically Dredge is a fairly natural foil for Tez decks.  The reason is that discard is a terrible way to fight dredge and counterspells are not great either.  Tez decks that are trying to control with 8 counters and 4 Duress effects find that they have around 12 suboptimal cards in their maindeck.  That leaves a lot of board space needed to fix this.

Dredge's recent performance is caused by a relatively high number of Tez decks and the relatively modest amount of hate they are running.  Tez decks that run the 12 controlling cards mentioned above really need to be dedicating 12 sideboard slots to dredge.  This would then open up the meta to a host of other decks.  Instead Tez decks run their anti Stax cards and their Red Blasts for the mirror and only end up with 6-9 anti Dredge cards.  They then must do stuff like leave in Force of Will post board.

Dredge still has some huge problems.  I still consider Long to be a problem because it has a decent probability of winning in game 1 and then can easily play Leylines post board.
Running Fatestitchers and Sadistic Hypnotists partially mitigates this and that is one of the biggest reasons that I advocate that package.  It might not be best against many decks out there, but it is best against Long.

The second huge problem can be Oath.  I advocate using the standard Leyline defense of 4 Chains and 4 Emerald Charms.  Leyline shows up in the mirror and in Long and with Charm and Chain I at least know they are not dead if my opponent does not run Leyline although since Fatestitchers were printed Charm is much worse.

Anyway, many Dredger players are now skimping on the Leyline hate.  This opens up Dredge to Leyline, but it also opens up Dredge to Oath.  All the testing that I am doing is showing that various Oath decks are actually the decks to beat right now.   Dredge cannot keep creatures off the table so Oath meerly needs to find and play Oath to win.  It used to be that I would run 12x Enchantment removal spells because Leyline was so prevalent, but now I only run 8 because there are so many Jailers, Needles and other hate running around that I must address those.

Fish, Shop Aggro and random Aggro can generally do well against Dredge since they run Wastelands and have fast clocks thus they can race in game 1 and all have access to hate if needed post board.  Unlike Long and Tez which may need 8 and 12 anti dredge cards post board, these aggro decks may only need to run 4 anti dredge cards since they already run Wasteland and Strip Mine.  UW Fish may need more like 8, but Goblins, R/G Beats and Shop Aggro can run fewer.

Dredge is actually playing a very important role in the metagame right now that folks may not appreciate.  Dredge forces the best decks (Long, Tez) to dedicate large amounts of board space to fight Dredge.  This means less space to fight Stax, Fish, Shop Aggro, Random Aggro, Oath, etc.  Meanwhile many of these other decks (that pack maindeck wastes) do not need to dedicate nearly as much space to Dredge hate and thus can afford to dedicate those board slots to hating out Long and Tez.  The result is that Dredge's existence acts as a balancing force that helps balance out the naturally strong decks like Tez and Long with naturally weaker decks like Stax, Shop Aggro, Oath and Random Aggro.

As Tez decks are forced to dedicate more sideboard space to Dredge this should decrease the amount of anti aggro, anti Oath and anti Stax hate and increase the diversity of the format.

[LordHomerCat]

But Force is actually good post board in Tez.  Being able to protect Jailer and Needle is very important, unless you want to dedicate your entire board to Dredge hate so you can always have another waiting.

I think that good Dredge players can consistently play through two pieces of hate.  I say this from extensive experience playing against good dredge players, and losing a lot of very close games where I drew a crypt and a jailer or a relic and a needle or something like that.  The deck is very powerful and is only now seeing more play and seeing play by people who know what they are doing with it.  There is consistently one or two Dredge decks in top 8's out here, and often played by a few particular pilots.  Just like Tez can sometimes just beat Null Rod fish decks, Dredge can and often does win post-board games where the opponent only manages 1-2 pieces of hate.  Not to mention, if the non-dredge players messes up along the way or keeps a bad hand, they can easily just lose a game without doing anything that matters.

[meadbert]

But Force is actually good post board in Tez.  Being able to protect Jailer and Needle is very important, unless you want to dedicate your entire board to Dredge hate so you can always have another waiting.

Force is certainly not dead against Dredge since Force on Unmask or Chain when holding Jailer or Needle can win a game and can Force on Chalice of the Void, but it is not nearly as good as another Jailer or Needle or Thirst or Fact or bounce or basically any other card left in.  The reason is that in order for Force to be good you already need a hate card to protect.  The cost of Force which is usually pitching a blue business spell is actually very expensive and a top decked Force can be mostly dead.  Force, without another hate card neither slows down dredge nor speeds up Tez.  Instead it just sits in your hand.

Personally I think that most Drain players attempt to take too much of a controlling role post board and that this is a mistake.   Instead of resolving your Needle or Jailer and then working to protect it, I think Combo/Control decks are better off throwing out their piece of hate and then trying to win quickly.  For a long time I have advocated pulling out Forces, Drains and Duresses if you run them and simply swapping in hate in combo and combo control decks.  This way Tez, either gets no hate, but 7 business/acceleration in which case it should race post board since it should be looking at a turn 3 or even turn 2 win, or 1 hate + 6 business/acceleration in which case it will still probably race since Tez is on pace for a turn 3/4 win and Dredge must deal with hate + race or 2xhate in which case Dredge should be severely slowed.

People forget that post board Dredge is in no position to race turn 3 combo decks so if you run Combo or Combo/Control just racing post board is a viable option when you get no hate.

[FadeToBlack]

I have to echo the statement that diversity in your Ichorid hate is important. I went 3-0 against Ichorid on Day 2 of TMD Open, with the following "hate" cards:

Md:
1 Pithing Needle
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Trinket Mage

SB:
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Ingot Chewer

Clearly, my hate is all over the place. I do not fold to Chalice or Pithing Needle. I could also back up my hate pieces with quick Tarmgoyfs that ensured the game would end before Dredge could fine appropriate answers. And for all you haters of 1 Leyline of the Void, I guess I should quote Gunslinga who put it best (albeit, sarcastically):

1 Leyline seems like the most baller thing ever; it seems like it's flipping off your opponent, especially if you manage to actually hit it.

If you hit it, great. If you don't, they'll probably board out any Leyline removal they have (aside from CoV) for g3. Sure, drawing it is awful, but so is drawing several other cards in your deck against Dredge. On top of this, I see a trend of Ichorid players cutting back on Leyline hate, which is probably due to the lack of Leylines. As someone who played Dredge for several tournaments, I feel this is a terrible choice (though awesome for people who play Leyline). You really can't do anything with a Leyline in play. At least with Yixlid Jailer, you can Bazaar stuff away until you kill off Jailer. With Leyline, your milling away your business, and it becomes much more difficult to win quickly before they drop another hate piece.

I'd also like to comment on other "hate" card choices. First off, Extirpate isn't very good. You really need to hit multiples for them to do anything effective against Dredge. If Bridge tokens don't get you, Ichorids will. If Ichorids don't, Narcomoebas --> Golgari-Grave Troll will. Tormod's Crypt and Relic are great, but you need to be able to win quickly afterwards. Just because you got rid of a couple of Bridge doesn't mean there aren't anymore sitting in there deck. Lastly, I feel that Pithing Needle is the trickiest one to evaluate. As decks try to pack in Fatestichers, shutting down a Bazaar becomes even more vital. However, as more people begin playing Mana'd Ichorid, Needle gets worse, as they have a bunch of Draw spells and Cephalid Coliseum.

One other major reason I can cite for Ichorid winning is improper play against it. This is most notable when players are running cards like Tormod's Crypt or Relic of Progenitus. They either pop it prematurely (often just a Time Walk), or try and sandbag it while they get run over by Zombie Tokens. Writing off the deck as skillless and packing a few cards against it that you don't know how to use properly is just setting up for failure.

[Grand Inquisitor]

I'm pretty happy with the responses here.  The picture I feel being painted of Ichorid is a narrow but capable deck that requires skill on both sides of the board and plays an important metagame role.  With limited experience (probably less than 10 tournament matches) I have to say that my games have been a combination of mulligans and highly interactive resource wars.  The recent developments to the deck and metagame play a crucial role (and refer nicely to my original points) to the opportunity space of the deck.

The recent posts hit especially hard:

Very few people set out when they are building a deck and go, okay, we have to deal with...AND ichorid

really need to be dedicating 12 sideboard slots to dredge

(I like Meatbert, but if this is true, then we...the DCI is in real trouble)

good Dredge players can consistently play through two pieces of hate.  I say this from extensive experience playing against good dredge players

This resonates with most of my test experience.  I've been hedging hard against this discovery for some time, but maybe it's time to recognize that this deck is for real.

they don't like the added difficulty of another point on the metagame star.

[Smmenen]

(I like Meatbert, but if this is true, then we...the DCI is in real trouble)

Is that the covert (but true) purpose (and meaning of the topic) of this thread?  To garner or indirectly elicit support for further restrictions connected with Dredge?

If your intent is even partly to create sympathy in support of restriction, I would just remind you of my mock B&R list post last year:

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=36021.0

DCI Banned and Restricted List Announcement
September 1, 2008
9/1/08, Effective 9/20/08

Vintage:

Bazaar of Baghdad
Dark Ritual
Cabal Ritual
Grim Tutor
Mishra's Workshop

Bazaar of Baghdad

Bazaar of Baghdad has been carefully monitored by the DCI for many years now as it has been a source of concern among players, fueling combo decks as a recurring draw engine and combo outlet.  With the printing of Future Sight's Narcomoeba and Bridge From Below, the Vintage dredge deck has now become unacceptably fast and resilient, capable of winning consistently on turn two through most disruption.  Bazaar of Baghdad consequently joins the restricted list.  It will still see play as a singleton, but will no longer be a problem.

But if, by "tipping point" you actually meant: Is Ichorid finally a Top Tier competitor?   I would say you are behind the curve, if that's what you are wondering.  Perhaps its some of that stubborn NE prejudice that thinks that anything that isn't blue or doesn't play Mana Drains is bad 

After the Vintage Championship last year and Shards of Alara, everyone on my team quickly concluded thatthat the top three decks (however you define it) were Tezzeret, TPS, and Ichorid.    Ichorid has been a "real" deck, either tier 1 or 1.5, in my mind, for some time.

EDIT:
My personal experience with TPS indicates that the tipping point for TPS that takes you from an iffy, slightly unfavorable match to favorable is 7 to 8 anti-Ichorid sb cards.   At the moment, I advocate the configuration of 4 Leyline of the Void and 4 Yixlid Jailer.  I think that Meadbert is wrong when he says that you need 12 cards.  Half your sideboard is enough, but it depends on the deck you are playing. 

[meadbert]

really need to be dedicating 12 sideboard slots to dredge

(I like Meatbert, but if this is true, then we...the DCI is in real trouble)

good Dredge players can consistently play through two pieces of hate.  I say this from extensive experience playing against good dredge players

This resonates with most of my test experience.  I've been hedging hard against this discovery for some time, but maybe it's time to recognize that this deck is for real.

Just to clarify, Tez only needs to dedicate 12 sideboard slots to dredge if it runs 12 bad anti dredge cards in the main and runs no dredge hate in the main.  A single Tormod's Crypt in the main is worth as much as 4 hate cards and with a Crypt and a Relic then 4 sideboard slots is fine.

If Tez were to run 0 Basics and 8 maindeck Red Blasts and ignore Stax or Wasteland in the main deck then it would also find that it needed 12 sideboard slots postboard to compensate.  How much anti dredge you need in the board depends on heavily on what you do in the maindeck.  If you choose to completely ignore a major archetype in your main deck then yes, you will need to compensate with more sideboard cards.

The second comment I want to address is about Dredge players playing through 2 pieces of hate.  This is where I get back to players trying to play too defensively against Dredge.  Dredge sort of has inevitability on its side.  Leyline and Planar Void still allow Bazaar to let the dredge player see 3 new cards a turn.  Jailer allows dredge to continue to load the yard.  Needles stops Bazaar, but Dredge can just use the discard phase and win without playing a spell.  The point is that these are not lock cards.  These are all speed bumps.  When I hear that a dredge player plays through 2 pieces of hate, my first reaction is how did the other player not win first?  Usually this happens because someone has boarded out draw spells and actually have hate + Forces and they are somehow hoping to play control without draw spells against a deck that can draw 3 cards a turn with Bazaar.

Such a strategy does not work.  Hit Dredge with your hate card and then just win.  Do not mess around trying to protect Pithing Needle, because as soon as Dredge gets to 7 cards in hand he won't need it anyway.  Boarding out Fact or Fiction and Gifts for hate and then pitching Thirst to Force to protect Needle is not how you defeat Dredge.  Instead simply replace Duresses, Forces and Drains with what hate or even alternate win conditions you have and then play your deck just as you normally do.  You still have a combo control deck that is the same speed that it has always been.  The only change is that you now hate Crypt/Needle/Relic/Jailer as disruption instead of Force/Drain/Duress.  This is the best strategy for Tez decks to beat Dredge.
  

[nataz]

meatbert, I <3 you.

Stop making people better players against dredge decks! Everything you just said is spot on. The sideboad example is what I've been saying for months. People are just lazy and don't want to deal with the deck. It's much easier to bitch that the deck is "stupid" and "non-interactive" then to actually practice against it or have a reasonable game plan with maindeck and sideboard answers.

[Purple Hat]

Also when boarding against dredge I think you really need to consider not only what you take out/put in but also what they take out and put in.  I've been asking around about tabernacle of the pendrell vale vs ichorid because I've been hearing a lot of talk about taking out FKZ for games 2 and 3 to make room for anti hate cards.  If the game comes down to a ground stall, which a lot of game 2 and 3 ichorid games do, having a "at the begining of your upkeep sweep your board" effect in play is pretty useful, especially in combination with other hate.

[nataz]

it doesn't hit ichorid though, which seems like it could be a problem. Also, post board dredge is going to have a lot more mana availible for its SB cards, and may be able to keep a huge troll alive.  On the plus side it can't be therp, chaliced, needled, contagioned, charmed, or chained, so its got that going for it.

[Purple Hat]

it doesn't hit ichorid though, which seems like it could be a problem. Also, post board dredge is going to have a lot more mana availible for its SB cards, and may be able to keep a huge troll alive.  On the plus side it can't be therp, chaliced, needled, contagioned, charmed, or chained, so its got that going for it.

it's only good in conjunction with other hate, I agree, but as part of an overall package it seems difficult for them to deal with, and it makes it more difficult for them to get said troll into play since they can't, typically, build up a bunch of creatures over a number of turns.

[nataz]

Honestly I still think relic/crypt, etc are better. Tab will punish ichorid players with bad draws, but most of my spells and creatures hit play afte begining of upkeep triggers. Sticher, Narco, etc will all be sac 1st mainphase for a huge troll if I see it coming. However if you sandbag it, it might do more dmg.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Is that the covert (but true) purpose (and meaning of the topic) of this thread?  To garner or indirectly elicit support for further restrictions connected with Dredge?

Huh?  No, that would be pretty dumb.

Ichorid has been a "real" deck, either tier 1 or 1.5, in my mind, for some time.

Sure.  But what lurks in the mind of Meandeckers and what people can actually expect to play in a given metagame can vary quite a bit.  Per the evidence I brought up in the opening thread it seemed like these two things were (evidently) converging, so I thought I'd post about it.

players trying to play too defensively against Dredge.  Dredge sort of has inevitability on its side. 

So this is pretty interesting to me.  Inevitability seems much more appropriate when talking about something like Hulk or Control Slaver.  By this I mean that the control elements in those decks allowed them to perform really well in the late game once they hit a threshold of resources.  I don't see Dredge in the same light, but maybe I'm misjudging it.  Unmask and Chalice just seem like less stable tools than mana drain and force of will.

Looking at the play of using a Force of Will and pitching an action spell like Thirst to protect Pithing Needle, I'm assuming I'll topdeck better than Dredge (once the Bazaar is neutralized).  Are you disagreeing with this?  Can you elaborate on why you think I shouldn't protect the needle?

[Diakonov]

I know there are divergent topics relating to Dredge that have opened up here, so I apologize ahead of time for continuing to tread off the main path... however, I just became curious because of this "Tabernacle" question.  I don't have a lot of experience with this matchup in general, but if this card is being considered, aren't there also other options related to resource dependent hate?  In other words, does this mean that Propaganda might actually be effective as well?  This does seem potentially more dangerous because they can build a horde and bounce Propaganda for the win, but unlike Tabernacle it would hold back Ichorids.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Propaganda

...is much more easily removed than Tabernacle and costs 3 more mana.

[Troy_Costisick]

Yeah, Ichorid decks pack enchantment hate for Leyline.  Propaganda gets hit by it too.  There's no real difference.  Might as well suggest playing Aether Flash.

[Smmenen]

Is that the covert (but true) purpose (and meaning of the topic) of this thread?  To garner or indirectly elicit support for further restrictions connected with Dredge?

Huh?  No, that would be pretty dumb.

Well, I think that threads can have many purposes.  Sometimes understanding causation for a particular outcome can converge with other motives.   In the past, I've seen threads like this concerning particular archetypes when one of the purposes was to suggest the need for DCI action, which you intimated, and hence the reason why I asked.

Ichorid has been a "real" deck, either tier 1 or 1.5, in my mind, for some time.

Sure.  But what lurks in the mind of Meandeckers and what people can actually expect to play in a given metagame can vary quite a bit.  Per the evidence I brought up in the opening thread it seemed like these two things were (evidently) converging, so I thought I'd post about it.

My expectation of what people play in a metagame can certainly vary from others experiences, but I don't think the evidence is necessarily new that Ichorid is a metagame competitor.    Ichorid's performance in the metagame was at 10% of the total metagame, and second only to Tezzeret in the November-December Metagame breakdown of top 8s around the globe.   I track global metagame trends closely and Ichorid has put up steady numbers, varying from 6-11% of total top 8s for almost the last two years.   That may not sound like alot, but that almost always puts it in the top 4 or 5 performing archetypes, and often in the top  3. 


To that extent,  I think the title of this thread may be misleading.   I don't really think that decks trend from viable to unviable, and that there is a magic line in which we can say that a deck is traversed one to the other.  Rather they exist on a dynamic continuum.  Perhaps Ichorid has reached some sort of threshold, but I'm not quite convinced.   In the first place, the GP Chicago side event was swiss + 1, which is a format that Ichorid -- for reasons that aren't perfectly clear to me - excels in. 

I think that if there is some sort of new awareness of Ichorid that it may just be the size of the tournaments.   Smaller tournaments often feature no Ichorid players.   Most of the New England tournament results from the last 5 months have been 32 or fewer players.   When you have an 80-120 player tournament, Ichorid shows up, and it makes its presence known.

[Diakonov]

Propaganda

...is much more easily removed than Tabernacle and costs 3 more mana.

Yeah, Ichorid decks pack enchantment hate for Leyline.  Propaganda gets hit by it too.  There's no real difference.  Might as well suggest playing Aether Flash.

Well, it's better than AEther Flash... but, you're right.

I'm just throwin' stuff out there, don't mind me.  Like I said, I honestly have very little experience with the matchup other than what I've read.

EDIT:

I think that if there is some sort of new awareness of Ichorid that it may just be the size of the tournaments.   Smaller tournaments often feature no Ichorid players.   Most of the New England tournament results from the last 5 months have been 32 or fewer players.   When you have an 80-120 player tournament, Ichorid shows up, and it makes its presence known.

While at Waterbury, I remember seeing quite a bit of Dredge while walking around during Swiss.  It would be interesting to see the actual percent of the field.  Although, unless people are bringing it in from outside NE, it seems somewhat strange that people in NE would choose not to run Dredge at smaller tournaments.  Is it because Dredge is more of a reliable "fallback" deck if you are worried about a diverse metagame?

Additionally, the 10% that you cited: is that from top 8's or the whole field?  Because if it is only top 8's, this could certainly be considered a "tipping point."  A deck that consistently performs at 10% in top 8's while it could be only 5% of the field should cause strong ramifications if the field percentage starts to go up.

[Smmenen]

Ray is supposed to send me the non Top-16 decklists, and I'll type them up in my spare time (I'm very fast at typing up decklists).  Then we can see the percentage of dredge in the field.