[Free Article] So Many Insane Plays -- Reviving Vintage

[Smmenen]

The distinction I draw is between short-term v. long-term. 

To quote John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run we're all dead." Long term is a misguided phrase/theory, when really it is just a series of short-term sequences; similar to how any curve is still just made of lots of tiny straight lines.

From my article:

The great economist John Maynard Keynes famously said that "In the long run we are all dead." Not quite so. Proxies may have been instrument in the short-term growth of Vintage seven or eight years ago. They may have opened Vintage to a larger player base. But the long-run costs of proxies has swamped the short-term benefits they created, which are now manifest. We are living in the future that was initiated over half a decade ago. 2009 is the long-run.

[Diakonov]

Yare, I strongly agree with the content of your large post.

So, what next.  How exactly do we implement lower proxies?  Just hope that TO's go along with it when they know they could probably get higher attendance otherwise?

I'm not trying to be difficult.  It's a real question.

Also, a recurring theme here on almost every topic that has come up is organization and communication.  Between TO's, between local player bases, online players, etc.  It would be nice to start some stickied threads in the Community Forum that organizes different local communities and lists the players in them.  I know we have the "Lists of Stores and People by State/Province" thread, but this is very poorly structured.  If we had a main category for each "province," then you could go in there knowing you will immediately see threads for player contact and local discussions in an area around you.  Having one super-list of people and stores just saying where they're from is a resource, but a pretty disorganized one.

Example:

Main Category: New England Vintage

Sub-Categories: Local Discussion, Contacts, Stores

I picture this doing a lot for local communication/finding players to play with, organizing smaller tournaments, etc.

[Yare]

Yare, I strongly agree with the content of your large post.

So, what next.  How exactly do we implement lower proxies?  Just hope that TO's go along with it when they know they could probably get higher attendance otherwise?

Honestly, I'm not really sure. I think that it's going to have to start with the big events first, like SCG (if we ever get those back). If success can be shown from large events with fewer proxies, I think smaller tournaments may follow suit. I would also point out, as mentioned by someone in this thread, that some stores do have an incentive to lower the proxy count some. If it induces players to buy cards and then play them, then that's all the better for them. On the other hand, if proxies make building a competitive deck prohibitive, that obviously is undesirable. Tiered prize systems for unpowered are a must, in my opinion.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Doesn't this disproportionately push pre-Fatespinner Ichorid since any other unpowered deck is strictly inferior to a powered version (even if just Lotus) of that same deck?

Ie.  You're giving out a prize to the best performing Ichorid player.  This is so dumb since it reduces the resulting format to dredge vs. dredge hate.  I'd much rather play only online than play at a tourney like that.

[LordHomerCat]

Well, if you wanted, you could specify that Bazaar counts as power and then Ichorid is no longer a choice.  Non-proxy Ichorid is not exactly a budget choice anyway compared to stuff like RG and Goblins.

[Smmenen]

Well, if you wanted, you could specify that Bazaar counts as power and then Ichorid is no longer a choice.  Non-proxy Ichorid is not exactly a budget choice anyway compared to stuff like RG and Goblins.

Which is what I wrote in my article a week ago monday.  I said "power, however defined," with that in mind.   Incidentally, any thoughts on my follow up article from Monday.  I addressed pretty much every point that was made in this thread in response to my article. 

[Purple Hat]

Well, if you wanted, you could specify that Bazaar counts as power and then Ichorid is no longer a choice.  Non-proxy Ichorid is not exactly a budget choice anyway compared to stuff like RG and Goblins.

Which is what I wrote in my article a week ago monday.  I said "power, however defined," with that in mind.   Incidentally, any thoughts on my follow up article from Monday.  I addressed pretty much every point that was made in this thread in response to my article. 

Steve,
How can we possibly have a productive discussion when people are required to pay for your response?  Think of it like a tax on your opinion.  The rest of us are taxed whenever we want to know your opinion, but not when we want to know the opinions of anyone else, or state our own opinion.  Under those circumstances, unless we find your opinion particularly invaluable, why would any of us take the time to respond to your post?

I don't really mind SCG charging for their articles, it makes quite a bit of sense to me and I expect it to be the model for internet articles in the near future, but if you're not going to contribute outside of a subscription service it makes it difficult for us to have a sensible discussion.

[Smmenen]

This article is now free.


I still think (2) and (3) are really important.

However, I'm not sure about (1).  I still subscribe to the analysis.   But there is a difference between analysis and prescriptive solution.    The solution I proposed may help solve that problem, but make things worse anyway.   Vintage is in a really tough spot.   

[dark burn]

I re-read this article, and the forums but I am still confused about one thing.  Most seem to agree that cashing out the mox or lotus prize is standard operating procedure for the winners.  If no one is interested in owning and playing with their power, then who is actually buying all these cards?

The TO's at some tournaments obviously buy back the power, which is really good for them, also, one player will buy out the other if they split.  Collectors definately pick up power, but they are most likely looking for very high quality cards, which is not usually given away at most tournaments.  If you check ebay, there are dozens of pieces of power being bought and sold every week.  Why are people buying these cards if they arent using them?

[Smmenen]

Simple:

Most non-American tournaments are non-proxy, and the largest and most successful European tournaments are zero-proxy. 

As the US has embraced ever growing proxy limits, our power cards have been going overseas in huge quantities.   
For a while, the US dollar was garbage compared to the Euro, combine that fact with the fact of decreased US demand for power made it even more attractive for Europeans to buy up our power.   Someone once speculated that Europeans may actually own more Mishra's Workshops than Americans, at this point.   

[Red Irish]

Simple:

Most non-American tournaments are non-proxy, and the largest and most successful European tournaments are zero-proxy. 

I beg to differ. I have been playing vintage for a few years in Spain and I have never attended a large tournament where proxies were not used. I believe that the Catalan Vintage league has banned proxies; however, they are the exception rather than the rule.

[LordHomerCat]

What about the Eurovino events?  Aren't those zero proxy?  And do Bazaar of Moxen allow them or no?  I'm not really sure honestly, I thought they did not but I could easily be misinformed.

Regardless, there is approximately one real sanctioned vintage tournament in the US each year.  The fact that there is a league which does that is already far more than here in the US, and I think that in the past European events were even less proxy friendly then they may be now.

[Marske]

@LHC,
Bazaar of Moxen and Eurovino are both sanctioned events, although we have seen an increase in proxy events in Europe, it's more a exception then a rule for a event to allow proxies. For example; I got 2 Vintage events coming up in the next two weeks both of them don't allow proxies.

[Red Irish]

@LHC,
Bazaar of Moxen and Eurovino are both sanctioned events, although we have seen an increase in proxy events in Europe, it's more a exception then a rule for a event to allow proxies. For example; I got 2 Vintage events coming up in the next two weeks both of them don't allow proxies.

Once again, I beg to differ. In Spain, events that do not permit 10 proxies are by no means the norm. The two tournaments in Madrid this year and the tournament in Valencia last year, which are by far the largest vintage tournaments in recent history, all allowed proxies. Over the course of the last two years, I have played vintage at least once a month and I have never played in a tournament that did not permit 10 proxies.

[Marske]

@Red Irish,
Maybe that's the case for Spain... but I've played in France, Belgium and the Netherlands and all have sanctioned events along with proxy events. btw Eurovino was the biggest Vintage event last year and it was sanctioned IIRC. I'm co-hosting the only recurring 10 proxy event in the Netherlands (all others are sanctioned). I do think Europe sees a lot more Sanctioned Vintage then the US has seen in the past years. Also what Steve said is spot on, some of the biggest Vintage events (BoM, Eurovino) have been zero-proxy, put the low dollar price compared to the Euro with that fact and you have the reason why so much power is located in Europe.

[Red Irish]

@Red Irish,
Maybe that's the case for Spain... but I've played in France, Belgium and the Netherlands and all have sanctioned events along with proxy events. btw Eurovino was the biggest Vintage event last year and it was sanctioned IIRC. I'm co-hosting the only recurring 10 proxy event in the Netherlands (all others are sanctioned). I do think Europe sees a lot more Sanctioned Vintage then the US has seen in the past years. Also what Steve said is spot on, some of the biggest Vintage events (BoM, Eurovino) have been zero-proxy, put the low dollar price compared to the Euro with that fact and you have the reason why so much power is located in Europe.

You are right to point out that I am talking specifically about Spain. Perhaps the situation here differs from other European countries. I also agree with Steve's analysis of the motives behind the concentration of power in Europe.

[BruiZar]

comparing mox events with BOM and EuroVino is pointless. Both the price support is different and the setup of the tournament is different. (Legacy day + Vintage day, meaning vintage players get 2 tournaments in one).

Anyone in his right mind with full power would go to a tournament where you can win multiple sets of p9, hundred of duals and fetch and a f-k-ton of other expensive cards.

[mike_bergeron]

This article is now free.


I still think (2) and (3) are really important.

However, I'm not sure about (1).  I still subscribe to the analysis.   But there is a difference between analysis and prescriptive solution.    The solution I proposed may help solve that problem, but make things worse anyway.   Vintage is in a really tough spot.   

Steve, can you let us know if you were able to speak to Ben/SCG about making CE/IE legal for a SCG event?  You ask Ben in your article to put his money where his mouth is, and I would be interested in seeing if anything ever came of that. 

Good Article.  I think one issue you could look at more is once a player has stopped playing vintage, how easy/hard is it to recruit them again?  It seems like once you learn all the potholes in the format, it should be easy to get these players to at least test and possibly play again.  This comes back to your networking issue, and the availability of power in these player circles. 

thanks!

[Caron]

... very good article..
i agree that proxies are a good way to kill what is a CCG... what's the point of collecting if you can use copies?... you don't want to spend money? use unspoilered decks untill you win some more powerful cards...
in italy there are many unspoilered decks making pretty good results in sanctioned events...

...and i also agree with the 3 possible solutions...

i would also like an even more efficent 4th solution.. even if i own all the power etc...  i would like WOTC to reprint some old cards, even P9, for example reprinting one each new set.. so that you can have collectionists play with old versions of cards and new players use the new printings... and in this way we would have no more proxy problems, many new vintage players, and Wizzy would earn much more from the new card sets....

but i think this will never happen...

CARONDIMONIO

[Morzas]

I've heard that one of the reasons why Europe has so much power is that a lot of it is counterfeit, largely because the scene there is pretty big. I'm surprised no one here's brought that up. Does that mean it's not true?

[shadowmage76]

I'm writing this post from the point of view of someone who doesn't have any kind of a local scene. My opinion on proxies is that if I don't have the cards then I don't have the cards. I would not use proxies. This atitude would generally mean that I would be playing with a substandard deck. Now my question is, How many copies of the power cards are actually in existence? Does anyone know? People want to grow the format, but how big can the format get if the cards you "need" to be competive are limited? Example, let's use the power 9 and say worldwide there are 25,000 of each card, and say worldwide there are 50,000 people who want to get into vintage. Let's say about 50%  of those copies are in the hands of the players who will actually use them and not sell them. That would leave 10 to 15,000 copies for those 50,000 people and what are the players who can't get them  supposed to do?  Hopefully, someone understands my point.  I came to this forum because on the magicthegathering.com forums the atitude I got when I asked about decent substitutions for the power cards or even the staples until I can get those was "take it to casual" Great, huh. Thankfully I haven't had that happen here yet. But, to reference my point, It was said earlier in the thread that the power 9 defines the format, but what If everyone who wants the power cards can't get them? I do like Steve's budget deck articles, they illustrate that you don't need the power cards to put a deck together.
Do I have the answer to solve the problems? No.
One suggestion is for TO's to eliminate proxies entirely and modify the prize structure. Reduce the value of the top prizes, so that prizes can be awarded farther down the list. Save the power cards for the big events. Another suggestion, two prize structures, one for proxies, one for no proxies, in the no proxy, if you have the card for your place, you receive cash instead. Just my 2 cents. I'm just a player who wants to get involved and doesn't want vintage to die before that happens.

[Caron]

..morzas.. we can recognize true cards from counterfeit in Europe, don't worry, and we don't use false cards.. moreover many of us are so old players that we bought our cards since mtg started..
in sanctioned  tournaments if you believe that someone is using counterfeit or proxies you just calla  judge.. to give you  number, in many years it only happened once to me few months ago...
so... in more than 9 years it olny happenede once to me to find a player with false cards in a sanctioned event... and that's it..

CARONDIMONIO

[Explosion]

The real question is, how would you even know? If someone has a very good proxy/counterfeit, or even well-clipped CE, what's going to prompt the call to a judge? I assure you, there are very few Magic players who would indulge a request to remove their cards from sleeves to test for authenticity.

There are stiff penalties for this sort of stuff, but the odds that someone is going to call the judge, or that a judge is going to de-sleeve someone's deck during a deck-check are vanishingly small. Hell, if the tournament's small enough stakes, I could see a player with real cards dropping from a tournament rather than letting a judge de-sleeve his cards.

Getting back to the discussion, eventually Vintage will either wither and die as a format, or WotC will reprint the Power 9 in limited, but sufficient numbers. There's no way Vintage will be around for another 15 years without reprints. Imagine how long Baseball would last if "official" bats, balls, and gloves all stopped being produced. People would certainly resort to playing with tattered balls and worn gloves, but eventually even those would be in short supply as people removed them from circulation as "collectibles" and new players had no chance of ever getting their hands on one.

[Caron]

..i agree that wotc should reprint P9 and all the old cards, i would really like it and i hope they'll do...
..i don't agree that you can't recognize a counterfeit, there are at least 10 different things you can check in a card to see if it's true or if it's a very good reprint...
..from light reaction, to consistency, to lens analysy etc..

actually even if you use the most advanced printing methods, you can obtain a perfect copy of a card, but a player who know how is the original alpha, beta etc. version, or has it near to compare, will find the differences..

i think also that if someone uses more advanced reprinting methods that makes almost impossible to find deffirences between and old card and the copy, he would rather print money than old MTG cards...

to come back on topic, i really think it would be great if wotc decide to print a limited set of old cards you can use in sanctioned events in vintage.

CARONDIMONIO

[Smmenen]

Getting back to the discussion, eventually Vintage will either wither and die as a format, or WotC will reprint the Power 9 in limited, but sufficient numbers. There's no way Vintage will be around for another 15 years without reprints. Imagine how long Baseball would last if "official" bats, balls, and gloves all stopped being produced. People would certainly resort to playing with tattered balls and worn gloves, but eventually even those would be in short supply as people removed them from circulation as "collectibles" and new players had no chance of ever getting their hands on one.

That assumes that there are not enough bats or baseballs produced back in the day to satisfy anyone who wants to play basebal.

There are FAR more than enough copies of power out there for American Vintage players.  

There are probably fewer than 1000 Vintage players in the US.  Growing a 5% a year, that would be 1980 players in 15 years.


 Wizards of the Coast used to release print run information, so it's also known that there were approximately 1100 of each Alpha rare printed, 3200 of each Beta rare printed, and 18,500 of each Unlimited rare printed.

That is FAR more than enough to satisfy every US player and every global Vintage player and much much more besides, including collectors, those that are PSA graded, and those that have been lost/destroyed.  

There were approximately 15,000 Collector's Edition box sets produced (10,000 domestic, and 5,000 International.)

That would increase the amount of power by about 44%.

There would be more than enough power to quintuple the US Vintage scene by legalizing CE alone!

[Harlequin]

Fewer than 1000 Vintage Players??  I think that might be my nomination for grossest understatement of the year.  First of all, there are 14,000 users registered to TMD.  Even if every single US vintage player was registered here, that would mean that for every registered user there are 13 other users who are repeats, spambots, or English speaking non-us vintage players.

There's no where that there is a 20 to 1 abundance of Moxen PER vintage player.  Counting the power in stores, in peoples trade binders, and in the hands of active tournament go-ers.  Super conservatively, there is a full set of power in circulation for every 3 people who have played in a vintage event twice or more in the past year.

Not only do I think there is an order of magnitude more vintage players than you say.  I also think there is dramatically more power sitting somewhere between "Collectors and Lost."  That is sitting in a box or binder somewhere in the hands of someone who used to play/collect but doesn't do it actively any more.  

And I would say that reality agrees with me, in that when I see 10 vintage players in a store I highly doubt there are 200 moxen between those players and the store owner.

[elgrillo]

There are FAR more than enough copies of power out there for American Vintage players.  

There are probably fewer than 1000 Vintage players in the US.  Growing a 5% a year, that would be 1980 players in 15 years.


 Wizards of the Coast used to release print run information, so it's also known that there were approximately 1100 of each Alpha rare printed, 3200 of each Beta rare printed, and 18,500 of each Unlimited rare printed.

That is FAR more than enough to satisfy every US player and every global Vintage player and much much more besides, including collectors, those that are PSA graded, and those that have been lost/destroyed.  

There were approximately 15,000 Collector's Edition box sets produced (10,000 domestic, and 5,000 International.)

That would increase the amount of power by about 44%.

There would be more than enough power to quintuple the US Vintage scene by legalizing CE alone!

There has to be something wrong with what you say. If there are FAR more than enough power cards to satisfy global demand, then why is power SO expensive.
I think the number of vintage players is limited by the number and/or price of power. I think there is not enough power to allow a continuous growth of the number of vintage players without adding proxies to the formula.

[Smmenen]

Fewer than 1000 Vintage Players??  I think that might be my nomination for grossest understatement of the year.  First of all, there are 14,000 users registered to TMD.  Even if every single US vintage player was registered here, that would mean that for every registered user there are 13 other users who are repeats, spambots, or English speaking non-us vintage players.

I don't know if you were aware of this, but there are lots of Mana Drain users who aren't American.   

There are Canadians, Germans, French, Dutch, etc. on these boards.   

Not to mention, there are tons of registered users who don't play Vintage anymore, players like KirdApe, Matt the Great, and JPmeyer.   

There are FAR more than enough copies of power out there for American Vintage players.   

There are probably fewer than 1000 Vintage players in the US.  Growing a 5% a year, that would be 1980 players in 15 years.


 Wizards of the Coast used to release print run information, so it's also known that there were approximately 1100 of each Alpha rare printed, 3200 of each Beta rare printed, and 18,500 of each Unlimited rare printed.

That is FAR more than enough to satisfy every US player and every global Vintage player and much much more besides, including collectors, those that are PSA graded, and those that have been lost/destroyed. 

There were approximately 15,000 Collector's Edition box sets produced (10,000 domestic, and 5,000 International.)

That would increase the amount of power by about 44%.

There would be more than enough power to quintuple the US Vintage scene by legalizing CE alone!

There has to be something wrong with what you say. If there are FAR more than enough power cards to satisfy global demand, then why is power SO expensive.
I think the number of vintage players is limited by the number and/or price of power. I think there is not enough power to allow a continuous growth of the number of vintage players without adding proxies to the formula.

The estimated print run of Revised edition is 500 million cards.   It's no wonder that Sol Ring is a 11.78 card while unlimited Mox Jet is $449.60   Of course the price is a function of the number of cards printed. 

But that doesn't mean that there aren't far more than enough cards to satisfy every Vintage player in the US.

The vast majority of magic players are casual players.   Collectors, casual players, etc.  these players would like Moxen if not for the price.  If the price were lower, demand would be greater.   The price for these cards is a function of their demand curve.  A  decrease in price results in an increase in demand.  Simple economics. 

[Sean Ryan]

The vast majority of magic players are casual players.   Collectors, casual players, etc.  these players would like Moxen if not for the price.  If the price were lower, demand would be greater.   The price for these cards is a function of their demand curve.  A  decrease in price results in an increase in demand.  Simple economics.

I agree with your overall sentiment that we have enough supply, especially when you consider CE.  However, you are being selective with your economics.  It's not what you are saying is false, but it obscures the more significant relationship of demand to price.  An increase in demand drives price upward when you have a static supply.  Simple economics

The interaction of the US and European markets is a huge contributor to price.  The demand of that market is definitely driving price.  I think what you are saying is that if the lower priced CE were legal here in the US it would increase demand.  But the demand is already there, it simply needs to access a supply that will create price equilibrium.  At any rate, bring on that CE!     

[Explosion]

The thing is, a lot of Moxes and other cards will get lost over time. I have known a few people who had a Mox or 2 in their casual deck. They've played Magic on and off for 15 years, they got the card when it cost nothing, and they don't care to sell it. They don't even care about the value, it's just a game to them. This one guy got a kick out of playing cards like his Mox Pearl, Fastbond, and Concordant Crossroads in an un-sleeved deck. He didn't mangle or abuse the cards, but that Mox will be trashed in another 15 years.

We have no idea of how many Moxes are actually still existent, or how many are available on the market (you can't count one that someone plans on keeping forever). Things get lost, as well; even if people care greatly for their cards, there's angry S.O.s and spouses, thieves, children, and accidents.

Regardless, there's still a hard cap on playing Vintage in a non-proxy environment. A circulation of under 15,000 is really low. Even if as many as 10K have survived the test of time, we won't see a huge influx of people like Legacy's seen, nor huge 1000-person events like GP Chicago. Then again, the community might prefer it this way. I've noticed an ongoing theme of people talking about "earning one's power" by winning tournaments. It's an essentially elitist attitude, as it limits participation to only those good enough to consistently win tournaments. Or shell out $3000, I guess.