Ad Nauseam Tendrils: Post Variants Here!

[Stormanimagus]

Ok. I agree with Eric that pact is bad in this deck and so is scroll and vault-key.

I still hold firm that the proper number of chrome moxen is 4. It is good for getting you there pre-combo AND it gets you B mana to start a chain of rituals post-combo when you really need free mana (like when you've already dropped a land before casting AN). Chrome mox is the key to this deck's explosiveness and consistency.

Next, I think it follows that Tolarian Academy is useful for this deck to run. You are not running it for double or triple blue but rather simply because it is generic mana for casting AN. Now, given that AN costs 3BB it may not be as useful but I wouldn't write it off to off-handedly.

Lastly, cutting demonic consultation would be a mistake. There are so many key 3-4 ofs in this deck and consultation is essentially a B costing demonic tutor in the right situations. I think people fear the card cause you can randomly lose off it, but then you just have to step back and do a risk/reward assessment of the situation and decide what to do. It's that simple.

[ErkBek]

Lastly, cutting demonic consultation would be a mistake. There are so many key 3-4 ofs in this deck and consultation is essentially a B costing demonic tutor in the right situations. I think people fear the card cause you can randomly lose off it, but then you just have to step back and do a risk/reward assessment of the situation and decide what to do. It's that simple.

Pierce lost 2 games to Consult in a single match. I've done the same in tournament play at the 3-0 tables of an SCG with consult (granted it was a different Tendrils deck, but I was consulting for 4-of with 3 Tendrils in the deck). The amount of games consult wins me over say Imperial Seal, just doesn't seem worth the amount of games it costs me.

I'll try upping my Chrome Moxen to 3 and see how that goes.

Next, I think it follows that Tolarian Academy is useful for this deck to run. You are not running it for double or triple blue but rather simply because it is generic mana for casting AN. Now, given that AN costs 3BB it may not be as useful but I wouldn't write it off to off-handedly.

If Academy is tapping for UU or UUU you can probably cast AN just fine with an Underground Sea instead since you've got 2-3 Moxes on the board.

[dark burn]

If academy taps for UU then you have 2 mox on the table.  You also probably have another land on the table, so thats 5 mana total. If the academy was underground sea, you would have 2 mox and 2 lands for 4 mana total.  No ad nauseam now.  Even if you have exceleration like dark ritual, academy still helps because now you have mana floating after you nauseam.  Academy is also useful if you have a hand with chrome mox, but dont want to imprint a card with it.  You just play it for free and tap academy for U.

[dark burn]

I played ad nauseam at the last blue bell event and went 2-3.  I had some absolutely horrible luck in round 3 that put me on tilt, but overall the deck was not well tuned for that tournament.  Since then I have been playing with the list and playing with another ad nauseam player.  This is the list I am most happy with now

Land
2 swamp
1 island
3 underground sea
1 tolarian academy
4 polluted delta

Mana excel
Black lotus
mox jet
mox sapph
4 dark ritual
4 chrome mox
3 cabal ritual
1 mana crypt
1 lotus petal
1 sol ring
1 mana vault

Card draw
4 dark confidant
1 ancestral recall
1 brainstorm
1 ponder

Tutors
1 demonic tutor
1 demonic consultation
1 vampiric tutor
1 mystical tutor
1 imperial seal

Proactive disruption
4 duress
1 thoughtseize

Reactive disruption/storm enablers
1 hurkys recall
3 chain of vapor

Win conditon
4 ad nauseam
3 tendrils of agony

alternate win conditon
1 time vault
1 votaic key

Broken Card
1 Yawgmoths will

     This list has been testing very well for me.  11 land is one less than usual, and I have been thinking of going to 12, but so far so good.  The dark confidants are absolutely amazing in this deck.  They give the deck so many options and versitility. The best turn 1 play besides ad nauseam/win is dark rit/duress/dark confidant.  That turn 1 gives me a win every time I play it. (yes, every time I have opened with that sequence I have won) Confidants are also really good against the new remora decks coming out, especially the tezz/remora hybrid that just won the NJ open.
       
      I do not play any pact of negation in this deck.  I had pacts in the first deck, they just dont do enough to be included.  Every card in this deck can fill more than 1 role.  Except pact of negation.  All it does is protect when you cast nauseam.  The times that you have the pact and nauseam and the opponent has a counterspell are so low that the pact is just a luck card in the deck.  I also do not play with necropotence or timetwister.  Both of these cards are inferior to Ad nauseam.  I decided to focus this deck more on protecting and casting ad nauseam than any other goal

     The average mana cost of this deck is 1.26  If I were to put in potence and timetwister, the average mana cost would be higher than I would want.  I would have to take out confidants for them, and confidants just do more and are cheaper.  I do like the idea of twister against dredge though, it had never occured to me before.  It may go in the sideboard for that matchup.

    The other big difference in this deck is time vault/voltaic key.  These were the last two cards added to the deck.  I am still testing them. The biggest thing is that I cant think of any other cards that I would rather have in the deck.  Potence and twister have too high a mana cost, and nothing else seems better than a 4 mana I win combo.  I also like the fact that I can kill with tendrils game one, then just drop the combo game two before they even expect it.

     Dark confidants fill a huge role in this deck.  Because I dont play potence or any other draw7s, it seems like my deck is a little bomb light.  It is not.  Dark confidants are a huge threat in the deck.  People have duressed me and have seen hands with 1 land in play 1 land in hand, dark confidant, ad nauseam, and no other mana excel.  They take the nauseam even though I only have 1 way of casting the nauseam next turn if I topdeck black lotus.  This lets me resolve the confidant and ride him to victory.  Like I said, confidant is good against remora, it is also good against fish and most workshop decks.  In this deck, confidant is as much of a bomb as twister would be.

      The deck is only U/B.  I am not splashing green for the xantid swarms.  Swarms come in against tezz and remora.  You already beat Tezz with the main deck, you dont need to sideboard, and swarms arent enough to change the remora matchup siginfiantly.  3 colors also hurt your workshop and fish matchups.

       I have actually though about splashing red for Burning wish and Wheel of fortune.  I actually like wheel better than timetwister because the cards in your graveyard can fuel a huge yawg will.  If I did splash for Burning wish I would also definately play timetwister in the sideboard.  At that point I would cut the Key/vault and probably an ad nauseam as well.  I would have to cut the nauseam to keep my cmc low.  This configuration would give me 3 nauseam, 1 wheel of fortune and buring wish/timetwister as bombs instead of just 4 ad nauseam.  I doubt the red spash will end up making it for the reasons listed against potence and twister above, but it is worthing exploring. 

      I am very happy with the deck as it stands, I like the vault/key combo because it represents another huge threat in the deck.  The mana base and mana excelerants are working perfectly.  I might drop a chrome mox but I doubt it.  Confidants stay, I doubt anyone could present an argument against them that would convince me.  3 chain of vapors is correct.  I played 1-2 chains and the deck just isn't the same.

[policehq]

I think 1/2 Chrome Mox and 1 Mox Diamond is perfect, and even with Moxen I really don't like Tolarian Academy. A basic Island is a very stable source of mana and therefore necessary, but Tolarian Academy is not stable, pretty bad in most opening hands in a deck without full artifact acceleration, vulnerable to a lot of hate, and doesn't produce B.

I especially don't like Key/Vault with Dark Confidants in the same deck. It's not a very good alternate win condition at all in that case.

[dark burn]

I dont understand your statement about not having full artifact exceleration.  My list runs 11 artifacts that produce mana by themselves and key/vault.  Thats 13 artifacts that allow for tolarian academy, more than enough.  I already have 3 basics in the list.  Earlier this week I went from 2 islands 2 swamp 2 u seas to 1 island 2 swamps and 3 u seas.  I was drawing the island a little too often.  If I take out the academy, what should I put in? What hate is out there that targets academy but not the other non basic lands?  I only have 3 cards in the deck that produce just blue mana.  1 basic island, 1 mox sapphire, and 1 academy.  There are 16 sources of black mana that can be played on turn 1 plus all the rituals that produce just black.  I do realize this deck loves black mana more than anything else, but I believe the balance is correct, and academy is too powerful to not include.

Key/vault with confidant is still a good win condition because of the 3 chain of vapors I play.  The only time it would be a problem is if all my tendrils were somehow removed from game or in graveyard along with yawg will.  Even if that happens, I should still be able to kill my opp before I die because my average cmc is only 1.26 and confidant will be doing 2 points a turn to the opponent.  If they are at 20 life and I am at 17 I should be taking 13 points of damage by the time I deal them 20 points.  1.26(average cost of 1 card in my deck)*10(turns it takes to kill them)=12.6 damage over 10 turns.

I am definately not sure about key/vault, but the interaction with confidant isnt a reason I would remove it.

I have heard a few others say 1 mox diamond in the list as well.  I dont really see the advantage of it.  You have to run 12 lands then and the only situation where a diamond would be better seems to be a hand with 2 lands and 1 diamond compared to a hand with 1 land and 2 chrome mox.  Any other situation they seem equal.  Hmm, as I am writing this, I cant seem to think of a situation where the chrome mox is better than the diamond.  I guess I would just rather have 11 lands over 12.

[policehq]

In testing, Tolarian Academy has prevented me from being able to cast Ad Nauseam, Necropotence, or Tendrils as many times as it has helped.

[dark burn]

What does your mana base look like?

[policehq]

1 Mox Diamond
1 Chrome Mox
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Vault
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Emerald
1 Lotus Petal
1 Black Lotus
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Bayou
2 Swamp
1 Island
4 Dark Ritual
2 Cabal Ritual
+2 Underground Sea (EDIT)

SB
1 Island
1 Swamp

[Stormanimagus]

After some consideration I've decided that I think the Confidant version of this deck runs best in the current metagame. I see ANT as the solution to a Drain/Remora infested Metagame. I'll admit that Fish can pose a problem, but I think that 4 SB Slaughter Pact and 3 MD Chain Of Vapor ought to get the job done more often than not. Tell me what you think of the following list. I think it is the essence of how this deck works and I've tried to design it to be sleek but still possess the utility needed to combat the decks that are dominating right now.

Ad Nauseam

Land (12):
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained Mire
3 Underground Sea
3 Swamp
1 Island

Artifacts (10):
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring

Creatures (4):
4 Dark Confidant

Enchantments (1):
1 Necropotence

Sorceries (13):
4 Duress
2 Cabal Therapy
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Imperial Seal
1 Ponder
3 Tendrils Of Agony

Instants (20):
4 Ad Nauseam
4 Dark Ritual
3 Cabal Ritual
3 Chain Of Vapor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Rebuild


SB
2 Yixlid Jailer       (Ichorid)
3 Tormod’s Crypt (Ichorid)
3 Hurkyl’s Recall (Shops)
3 Chains Of Mephistopheles (Remora)
4 Slaughter Pact (Bring these in for Confidants against Fish)

[beder]

After some consideration I've decided that I think the Confidant version of this deck runs best in the current metagame. I see ANT as the solution to a Drain/Remora infested Metagame. I'll admit that Fish can pose a problem, but I think that 4 SB Slaughter Pact and 3 MD Chain Of Vapor ought to get the job done more often than not. Tell me what you think of the following list. I think it is the essence of how this deck works and I've tried to design it to be sleek but still possess the utility needed to combat the decks that are dominating right now.

Ad Nauseam

Land (12):
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained Mire
3 Underground Sea
3 Swamp
1 Island

Artifacts (10):
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring

Creatures (4):
4 Dark Confidant

Enchantments (1):
1 Necropotence

Sorceries (14):
4 Duress
3 Thoughtsieze
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Imperial Seal
1 Ponder
3 Tendrils Of Agony

Instants (19):
4 Ad Nauseam
4 Dark Ritual
3 Cabal Ritual
3 Chain Of Vapor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Hurkyl’s Recall


SB
3 Yixlid Jailer       (Ichorid)
3 Tormod’s Crypt (Ichorid)
2 Hurkyl’s Recall (Shops)
1 Rebuild          (Shops)
1 Tinker                 \
1 Sundering Titan    /  -->  (Tinker for Sundering Titan would also come in against Fish and possibly the mirror)
4 Slaughter Pact (Bring these in for Confidants against Fish)

According to me, Demonic Consultation is too good not to be played in this deck. Sure, once a time, you will loose a game. But with ">=3-of" targets, it is not so frequent.

[Purple Hat]

I think if you're playing with Confidants you should cut thoughtsieze for Cabal Therapy.  I'd also cut one for a Demonic Consultation.

Confidants give you the option to flashback and take anything that looks ugly, and if you're going for an early ad naus you're going to be naming force of will anyway, so it makes no difference.  In my mind I'm only keeping two types of hands with this deck, turn 1 confidant or turn 1/2 bomb.  If I've got a turn 1/2 bomb the cards are close enough functionally and if I've got a turn 1 confidant I'm happier with therapy because I can nab 2 cards and it doesn't cost me mana when going off.

In a reasonably redundant deck like this Consultation may be your strongest tutor, and I'd definitely play it.

I'd also splash green for tarmogoyfs in the board instead of tinker-->titan.  The tinker-->man plan has a massive effect on your average mana cost, goyfs give you the same effect for less total CMC.  Against Remora decks I'd also want either xantids or chains of mephistopheles to shut them down.

[Stormanimagus]

I think if you're playing with Confidants you should cut thoughtsieze for Cabal Therapy.  I'd also cut one for a Demonic Consultation.

Confidants give you the option to flashback and take anything that looks ugly, and if you're going for an early ad naus you're going to be naming force of will anyway, so it makes no difference.  In my mind I'm only keeping two types of hands with this deck, turn 1 confidant or turn 1/2 bomb.  If I've got a turn 1/2 bomb the cards are close enough functionally and if I've got a turn 1 confidant I'm happier with therapy because I can nab 2 cards and it doesn't cost me mana when going off.

In a reasonably redundant deck like this Consultation may be your strongest tutor, and I'd definitely play it.

I'd also splash green for tarmogoyfs in the board instead of tinker-->titan.  The tinker-->man plan has a massive effect on your average mana cost, goyfs give you the same effect for less total CMC.  Against Remora decks I'd also want either xantids or chains of mephistopheles to shut them down.

Ya Know. As much as Cabal Therapy seems sub-optimal/not synergistic with this deck it might actually be a good option. I'll test with it and other options. And yes, cutting Consultation was mainly out of fear. I guess one should be playing this deck if he/she is afraid of the deck self-destructing because occasionally it just will no matter how tight you play.

As for Tinker-Robot vs. Tarmogoyf. Hmmmm. . . I'm just not sure that Fish is a weak enough matchup to warrant splashing green for Goyf. Nor am I convinced that Remora is a weak enough matchup to splash green for Xantid Swarm. I think that MD Confidant really help against Remora and MD Chain Of Vapor help against both Remora and Fish. After SB you have Slaughter Pact against Fish and I think that is a far better card for this deck than Tarmogoyf. It has CMC =0 and it takes out Meddling Mages and Tarmogoyfs like a Champ. I suppose the Tinker-->Man plan might be excessive and those slots could perhaps better be filled by Chains. I'll make the appropriate changes to the SB, but I'd really rather not splash a 3rd color. This deck wants to be able to take it to Shops with a decent number of Basics + Confidant + Mini-Tendrils plan and running a 3rd color makes this deck more susceptible to Wasteland and I think needlessly so.

[Purple Hat]

you have to be aware of casting costs and tinker--->titan is 11 CMC, 3x goyf is 6 CMC.  You can cut 1 sea for a bayou and still run 4 basics.  You go from 14 black sources 11 blue sources to 14 black sources, 10 blue sources, 8 green sources.  If you want you could find room for a mox emerald, but that's really irrelevant.  That's not counting chrome moxen obviously.  You're not significantly altering your mana base it's a sideboard splash of 3 cards.  Goyf is good vs fish and remora, having an extra 3 creatures in your board also lets you go to 10 creatures against stax, and goyf is pretty good in that matchup.

[dark burn]

I just played the list I posted above at the Dan Herd Memorial Tournament.  I went 3-3 with the deck.  Here are the problems and good things I have.

Good Maindeck Cards:
Timevault/Key just steals games away from people. It gives me 4 threats people have to fight: key/vault, confidants/mini tendrils,  ad nauseam/tendrils, and yawgs will.  People (fish especially) sideboard for key/vault and I can usually just take out for more threats.
Dark Confidants still a house.

Maindeck Problems:
Academy was popping up much too often, I couldnt get enough black sometimes.  Might switch to Underground sea.  It did let me go off turn 1 though because of a double chrome mox hand.  I will really have to track this.
I saw the basic Island like 75% of my games and it screwed me over.  I think this is just bad luck on my part, but that plus the academy felt like my mana base was off.
I feel like I need another duress effect.  I will be testing 2 cabal therapys instead of thoughtseize and something else, maybe a chain of vapor.

Here is the sideboard I used and what I used them for:
4 Phyrexian Negator (anything with Remora)
1 Tinker (fish)
1 Sundering Titan (fish)
1 Timetwister (anything not playing blue/dredge)
1 Echoing Truth (good against lots of decks)
1 Hurkyls Recall (Shops)
1 Basic Swamp (Shops)
2 Tormods Crypts (Dredge)
3 Yixlid Jailers  (Dredge)

Sideboard Problems:
Had Tinker-robot against fish decks and it cost me game 3 of 2 different matches.  Absolutely horrible and I will not be playing it ever again.  It just does not belong in this deck.  I believe I will be adding slaughter pacts against fish instead.

I played against 3 fish decks and did not have enough hate for them.  I will be adding more fish hate.

I played against 3 fish decks, 1 red/green beats deck, 1 weird black stax type deck, and 1 remora/tezz list.
I beat 1 fish, red/green beats, and stax.  The tinker/titan cost me game 3 against the other 2 fish decks, and I mulled into oblivion against remora/tezz.  I was expecting to play against more tezz, ichorid, and stax decks, so of course i play my worst matchup of R/G beats and my second worst matchup of fish 4 times.  Happens I guess.

I got 3 turn 1 wins and should have had a 4th, except I flipped up a titan and lost in the final game of round 6.  I really like the flexability of the deck and all the lines of play available to me.  I also like how customizable the deck is. Even playing 4 bad matchups and mulling into oblivion against my 1 good matchup, I still could have gone 4-2 or 5-1 if I just didnt have tinker-titan in the deck.  I cant stress this enough, tinker-robot is terrible; never, ever, ever, play it.

P.S.  The event itself was excellent.  Thanks Nick for making the Dan Herd Memorial event a great experience.

[pierce]

has anyone in this thread even played this deck? I'm seriously baffled at some of the opinions. Intuition is garbage in this deck, being both too slow and too costly off a resolved ad nas.
You definately want 3-4 chrome mox. Often you have little, if any, mana floating after casting the ad nas. Chrome moxen let you combo post ad nas.
Thoughtseize is actively bad in this deck. You can't afford to get rid of you life. Run pact of negation--it has more synergy with ad nas anyway.
Tinker is poop md. Sb, it's fine. You only want it for certain matchups like fish builds where you need an extra way to win if they plop down a teeg or med mage.
Bargain is propably the worst card to add. Play the deck with bargain and you'll see why.

In addition, I really hate all of the initial decks this thread started with. I don't like timetwister or necro in the deck. Anything that costs three, I'm against.

For any explainations or justifications for these opinions, please look to the tournament forums for a report I wrote.

Hi Pierce. I have played this deck. Some questions on your list.

4 duress
1 thoughtseize
2 pact of negation
2 chain of vapor
1 hurklys recall
1 merchant scroll
1 ancestral recall

4 dark ritual
2 cabal ritual
1 mox sapphire
1 mox jet
4 chrome mox
1 sol ring
1 mana vault
1 mana crypt
1 black lotus

4 ad naseum
3 tendrils
demonic tutor
vampiric tutor
mystical tutor
yawgmoth's will
necropotence (terrible)
time vault
voltaic key
demonic consultation
sensei's diving top
ponder
brainstorm

island
2 swamp
3 underground sea
1 bayou
4 delta
1 bloodstained mire

sb
2 xantid swarm
2 yixlid jailer
2 relic of progenitius
1 tinker
1 platinum angel
2 hymn to tourach
3 pithing needle
island
swamp

I'm thinking you don't like Necro because you're playing 2 Pacts instead of 4 Thoughtseize. Yeah, Thoughtseize is 2 life, big deal, but its always money. Do you really think Pact is better than Thoughtseize? I'm in agreement with Stormanimagus, however I believe you could potentially play Pact in addition to 8 duress, just not in place of Duress. Also, doesn't Pact + Vault-Key = Fail? The only cards you want to use Pact to protect is AN and Yawg Will. Thoughtseize protects everything and gives you info. I really don't think Vault-Key belongs in here. Do you?

Merchant Scroll should not be played with your manabase. It's okay in TPS and 2C Grim Long b/c they play basic island(s), but Islands don't belong in maindecks of ANT (along with Tolarian).

I know everyone plays Consult, I did too for a while. I rarely like it in my openers, only off AN. If I've resolved AN at a healthy life total I win at least 90% of the time (even with only playing 2 Chrome Mox). It sounds like Consult didn't work out for you, yeah you were unlucky, but why take that risk? The risk-reward on the card just isn't worth it imo.

No love for Imperial Seal? I'm mixed on the card myself, buy I'd think with Vault-Key you'd definitely want to play it. I play it over Consult even w/o Vault-Key.

Sup with the Hymns on your board?

Now that the pro tour is over, I actually have started paying attention to this site/format again. I'm sorry for the very, very untimely delay to both you and anyone looking for advice on this deck during the previous month. I will now answer all these questions.

Imp seal . . . I think it was in the deck, I might have listed it wrong. Imp seal is fine, and if that list is 60 cards, then cut the scroll for it if you'd like, or the consult. As for the scroll, I side it out vs fish decks with wastelands, so its not a big deal. Vs Shops, yes the problem you mentioned is actually a pretty bad problem. But my game one plan vs them tends to be, win turn one. After board, i get a basic island to help the cause. The card was in there becuase it demonic tutors for all the cards that give me solvancy to on board/in hand threats--pact of negation, hurkyls, and chain. In addition, it always finds ancestral, and that tends to be a decent play  

COnsult did screw me good. I have mixed feelings on that card. You raise fine points here, as it is very bad in your opener most of the time. However, I can attest that it has won me multiple game ones when my opener was rituals, a protection card, and consult. I probably play more poker in a year than MTG, and approach the odds of MTG through the mindset of a poker player. Most of the time, a singleton will not be in your top 6. Especially if you have b stormed or used top. This deck is designed to play the odds, and the card does just that. When you cast it, you just have to scream "GAMBLE" really loudly!  

On a side note, I've lost more games naming a four of in the deck and flipping away two to all three tendrils than I have by losing my singleton in the top 6. Can't do math well enough to see the comparative odds on this. Would love to see them though.

Boulder Colorado is a orgy of combo decks, largely due to the local T1 titans there--Piazza rounding up the Icorid peeps, and Spero and Fuckin Lou tend to be big on dark rituals. Myself, I have a couple kids who almost always copy my 75. Expecting between two to six players on either TPS or Ad Nas, I wanted some other card to deal with those decks. Not having thoughtseizes on hand, and the tournament about to start, I found two hymns in my box o' cards I had brought. I dont recall using them.

The vault key combo does not need to be in the deck my any means at all. It did, however, win me multiple games, which lead to multiple match wins. The power of the combo in this deck is that its converted mana cost is low, allowing for wins where you tendrils may not, and that does not have to be set up in one turn. Land, jet vault, go is a fine turn one. It gives you demonic consultatoin (I did this, without a second thought in g3 of the top4), d tutor, v tutor, a weak ad nas, and of course a mise to win the game.

Pact is not the best at protecting this second combo. This is correct, though given the accelerants you run, a number of games can be won with pact protecting the vault/key option. Mana vault, a dark rit, a cabal rit w/ thresh, mana crypt, and b lotus all should give you 3UU during your upkeep (given some combo of two seas/fetches, three or a chrome with the d rit plan). Ideally, a land drop will allow the infinte turns. Otherwise, a one turn window isn't the worst that can happen.

Your Necro point is actually very good. Its rare for a player to be able to have a single card discussion on that level. You are correct in your synopsis. However, I I have two bigger problems with necro. First is that it neuters the main engine of your deck. After paying 6-7 life, I rarely feel like casting ad nas. Secondly, I can't afford to pass the turn in my metagame. If I lose 6-7 life, I'm worried about Travis ad nas-ing me out, the state champ TPSing me away, or one of the million icorid players getting there.
In addition I have never, ever, won with the deck after a first turn necro.

After much thought, in any other meta, I would be happy with the necro--even with my terrible luck with the card. I might start losing less life to it to counteract my first issue.

Here is the list I have been MWSing with.

1 bloodstained mire
4 delta
4 u sea
2 swamp
bayou

4 dark rit
3 tendrils
4 pact of negation
4 duress
4 chrome
4 ad nas
dconsult
d tutor
vault
key
vamp
imp seal
mystical
y-will
top
b storm
ponder
ancestral
hurklys
jet
sapphire
blotus
lotus petal
mana vault
sol ring
mana crypt
2 chain of vapor
2 cabal rit


sb:
island
swamp
2 thoughtseize
2 relic
hurklys
3 xantid
2 jailer
3 pithing needle


the sb is metagamed, of course. in a 'normal' meta, i'd drop the two relics for either infests or slaughter pacts. Most people assume slaughter pact is correct, but they fail to realize that chalice at zero is a super strong play vs ad nas to begin with, and in addition it shuts off s pact. I have actually lost to this problem before, bubble round style the last time I played TPS.

After 50 or so MWS matches, I've found that I too often lose ten life to flipping two ad nases when I combo. This could just be bad luck, but I'm pretty sure I'm cutting it down to three. I win 70% of those games still, so its not a warrented cut just yet.
4 chrome moxen is, sadly, not correct. 3 is prob the right number, as you really want them post ad nas so that you can actually kill the other guy.

Timetwister was lackluster in my testing, and Spero insists that it's poop. Seeing as he's won more with the deck than any other player on the planet still, I'm gonna go with his advice.

Overall, -1 ad nas, +1 necro. -1 chrome mox +1 thoughtseize is most likely correct. I will give it another ten matches before I make a switch. I'm not on a deadline.

EDIT: SPELLING! oh god. I probably still missed a couple though . . .

[Harlequin]

On a side note, I've lost more games naming a four of in the deck and flipping away two to all three tendrils than I have by losing my singleton in the top 6. Can't do math well enough to see the comparative odds on this. Would love to see them though.

 

Actually The math here is not as hard as you would think.  In situations where you are talking stricktly X before Y the other cards in your deck are irrelevant so you could have 10 cards left for 10,000 its all the same calculation.

What does change the numbers is what happened prior to starting the flips.  For simplicity you should include what happens durring the 6 card burn as "before" flipping.  So after burning 6 cards, as well as the cards you've drawn so far - lets say you have 4 dark rituals, and 3 Tendrils.  

The probabilty of hitting 3 Tredrils before the 1st dark ritual is:
3/7 * 2/6 * 1/5 = 0.0285 or about 3%

Lets say that you have a Rit in hand -or- burned one in the top 6.  Now the probability becomes:
3/6 * 2/5 * 1/4 = 0.05 which is 5%

Lastly, lets say that you have a Rit in hand -and- you happened to burn one in the top 6!
3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 = 0.1 or 10%

For any 1 to X comparison its as simple as 1/(X+1).  So Lets say you 3 Tendrils left, and you Consult for Lotus.  Assuming you don't hit either lotus or Consult in the top 6 You have a 1/(1+3) = 1/4 or 25% chance to RFG all your tendrils before hitting lotus.  If you Burned 1 tendrils in the top 6, then the odds chance to 1/(1+2) = 1/3 or 33% chance.  

Once you've taken the burn 6 out of the equation the math is extremely simple as it doesn't care how many "other" cards are left in your deck.  The burn 6 is completely dependant on how many cards are left; and changes the number slight simply by drawing an extra card, or fetching an extra land.  So wracking your brain on this is probably not worth the effort.  Just keep in the back of your mind that there is aproxamitly 10-15% chance that any unique card will in the top 6 'early' in the game.

---------------------

This same logic can be applied to mana sources.  One time Jer came to me and said "Jeff, I have a probability problem I need to you solve for me.  If I ran Tinker in a mono-brown deck with 1 Lotus, 1 Sapphire, 1 Tolarian Academy.  What is the probably that I'll have blue mana to cast tinker." Without missing a beat I answered: 3 in 4.  3 out of the 4 times you draw tinker, you will have previously drawn blue mana."  The problem is actually very simple when you remove all clutter of the other cards in the deck. 

[pierce]

cool. does simple probability work for the unique cards? I mean, if I combo turn one, on the play then the chances are:

1/53 card one
1/52 card two
1/51 etc
1/50
1/49
1/48

Essentially, this works for every time I cast consult, right? X is just the number of cards left in my deck. I dont have a very good calcutor handy, so I cant run the overall probabilty.

[Harlequin]

Yes~ish you can grind it out using conditionality and combinatorics (but there's an easier way).  So the probability is not 1/53 * 1/52 * 1/51 * ... * 1/47 that would be the probabality that 6 exact cards were in a particular order.  In otherwords ETREMELY small.  Nor is it 1/53 + 1/52 + 1/51... that's actually nothing (in terms of probabiltiy).  When you use that method to get to 6, the % is resonable.  But if you use that method to calculate that with 40 cards out of 52 you end up with 101%.  What you're trying to do is this:

Lets say the card is lotus.
The probably that Lotus is the top card (1/53)
+
The probabilty that the top card is NOT Lotus * the probablty Lotus is the 2nd card given that the top one is not lotus.
52/53 * 1/52 = 1/53
+
The probabiliy that the top two cards are NOT Lotus * the the 3rd card IS lotus knowing that the top 2 cards are not lotus.
52/53 * 51/52 * 1/51 = 1/53
...
So the trend ends up being
1/53 + 1/53 + 1/53 + 1/53 + 1/53 + 1/53 = 6/53.

To put it simply: That the 1st card is Lotus + the 2nd card is lotus + the 3rd card is lotus ... etc etc.  The events ARE independing because lotus cannot be the first AND 2nd card.


But it's even simpler than that.  
Think of your deck as two zones where the unique card could be.  So you have a 53 card deck, and you know ONE of those cards IS lotus.  The probably that lotus is in the top 6 cards is simply 6/53 and the probably that lotus is in the bottom 47 cards is 47/53.  (noting that this added together is 1 because lotus is somewhere).  6/60 is 10%,  6/50 = 12% and 6/40 = 15%  
So in your head 52 is just a little bigger than 50 so the probably is just a little SMALLER than 12%.  But generally speaking knowing that most of the time its about 10% to 15% is enough for most choices.  (its not like you do one thing at 11.8% but not at 13.25%....)

[Stormanimagus]

The probably that Lotus is the top card (1/53)
+
The probabilty that the top card is NOT Lotus * the probablty Lotus is the 2nd card given that the top one is not lotus.
52/53 * 1/52 = 1/53
+
The probabiliy that the top two cards are NOT Lotus * the the 3rd card IS lotus knowing that the top 2 cards are not lotus.
52/53 * 51/52 * 1/51 = 1/53

That statement is not entirely accurate.

52/53 *1/52 is not = 1/53. It approaches 1/53 (because 52/53 approaches 1) but each successive card will have a slightly smaller probability of being Lotus. Now I grant you that it is generally a negligible difference and the change in probability will be negligible but it is not so clear-cut as you reduce your deck size and start trying to consult for Lotus.

What about when you have a library of 30 cards?

Then it becomes:

29/30 * 28/29 * 27/28 * 26/27 * 25/26 * 24/25 * 1/30 = 0.966666. . . * 0.96551724 * 0.96428571 * 0.96296296 * 96153846 * 0.96 *0.03333333. . . = .02666666666666 or  about 1/37.5. But that's just the probability that the 7th card will be lotus give that the first 6 were not. If we look at what's important to the player (the probability that you'll hit lotus as one of the 6 cards) then the data becomes this:

1/30 = 0.033333333

+

29/30*1/30 = 0.0322222222

+

29/30*28/29*1/30 = 0.0311111111

+

29/30*28/29*27/28*1/30 = 0.03

+

29/30*28/29*27/28*26/27*1/30 = 0.0288888888

+

29/30*28/29*27/28*26/27*25/26*1/30 = 0.02777777777

= 18.3333333 % chance of hitting Lotus in the top 6 cards. According to your math the probability should be 6/30 of drawing lotus in the top 6 cards and that would be 20%. I agree that 20% and 18.333333 % are pretty close but they are not the same so your method is a bit flawed. As the cards in your library reduce this disparity becomes bigger. Is your method sound? Is there something I'm missing?

[Harlequin]

What??

Ok first of all Criss-Cross-Applesauce tells us that

52/53 *1/52 is EXACTLY = 1/53. because 52 cancles the 52 and you end up with 1 in the neumerator and 53 in the denominator.

2ndly there is a flaw here:

29/30*1/30 = 0.0322222222

29/30 represents the probably the 1st card is NOT lotus, and 1/30 represents the probabilty that 1st card IS lotus.  You don't want to muliply that together.  You want to multiple two conditional probabiltys:

Prob (1st card is lotus ) * Prob( 2nd card is lotus GIVEN 1st card is not lotus)
so it should be 29/30 * 1/29


to check this, using your method EXACTLY.  Calculate in a 30 card deck the probabilty that lotus is in the top 30 cards.  It should calculate out to exactly one.  In your model ~ it won't.

EDIT Added ---
To make it simpler, just picture a 4 card deck with A,K,Q,J.  What's the probabilty that the Ace is in the top X cards.  Its always X/4.  So 1st card = 1/4, In first two card = 1/2, In first 3 cards = 3/4 and in the "top 4" cards in otherwords still in the deck = 1. 

By my math its:
1st card = 1/4
By 2 cards = 1/4 +( 3/4 * 1/3) = 1/2
By 3 cards = 1/2 +( 1/2 * 1/2) = 3/4
By 4 cards = 3/4 +( 1/4 * 1 ) = 1

By your math its --

1st card = 1/4 = 75%
By 2 cards = 25% + (75% * 1/4) = 43%
By 3 cards = 43% + (57% * 1/4 ) = 70%
By 4 cards = 70% + (30% * 1/4 ) = 77.5%

So where did the Ace go the other 23% of the time ^_^

[Tempus]

I tested a little with a list similar to Stormanimagus 2nd list.

Lands (12)

1 Mire
4 Delta
3 sea
1 Bayou
2 Swamp
1 Island

Artifact (11)

1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
3 Chrome Mox
1 Mox Diamond
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal

Enchantment (1)

1 Necropotence

Creature (4)

4 Dark Confidant

Instant (18)

4 Dark Ritual
3 Cabal Ritual
3 Ad Nauseum
3 Chain of Vapor
1 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Demonic Consultation

Sorcery (14)

4 Tendrils of Agony
4 Duress
2 Thoughtseize
1 Ponder
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Timetwister

I liked it so far. Confidants and Basic Island are in there cause people around here like Fishies (Wasteland'n Stuff) and Drains, so I try to outdraw them, land a discard effect and go crazy. Works well so far, but just in testing, not at a tournament

[pierce]

yeah. I got nearly none of that math.

go go english major ftw at math based strategy games

[Stormanimagus]

What??

Ok first of all Criss-Cross-Applesauce tells us that

52/53 *1/52 is EXACTLY = 1/53. because 52 cancles the 52 and you end up with 1 in the neumerator and 53 in the denominator.

2ndly there is a flaw here:

29/30*1/30 = 0.0322222222

29/30 represents the probably the 1st card is NOT lotus, and 1/30 represents the probabilty that 1st card IS lotus.  You don't want to muliply that together.  You want to multiple two conditional probabiltys:

Prob (1st card is lotus ) * Prob( 2nd card is lotus GIVEN 1st card is not lotus)
so it should be 29/30 * 1/29


to check this, using your method EXACTLY.  Calculate in a 30 card deck the probabilty that lotus is in the top 30 cards.  It should calculate out to exactly one.  In your model ~ it won't.

EDIT Added ---
To make it simpler, just picture a 4 card deck with A,K,Q,J.  What's the probabilty that the Ace is in the top X cards.  Its always X/4.  So 1st card = 1/4, In first two card = 1/2, In first 3 cards = 3/4 and in the "top 4" cards in otherwords still in the deck = 1. 

By my math its:
1st card = 1/4
By 2 cards = 1/4 +( 3/4 * 1/3) = 1/2
By 3 cards = 1/2 +( 1/2 * 1/2) = 3/4
By 4 cards = 3/4 +( 1/4 * 1 ) = 1

By your math its --

1st card = 1/4 = 75%
By 2 cards = 25% + (75% * 1/4) = 43%
By 3 cards = 43% + (57% * 1/4 ) = 70%
By 4 cards = 70% + (30% * 1/4 ) = 77.5%

So where did the Ace go the other 23% of the time ^_^

Yeah, I'm sorry Jeff. I botched that math majorly. Whoops! It's been a while since high school probability and basic algebra (lol). I suppose that my point was that you have to be more careful when consulting for a restricted card, or any card, for that matter, when you've thinned your deck to around 30 cards. Then the risk of:

1. Seeing a restricted card in the first 6 that you've named
2. Naming The Tendrils you need but also needing to find another Ritual and burning the rest of those away in the top 6, or before you hit a Tendrils.
3. Naming the Ritual you need but the reverse happening.

all become more real potential fizzles. I think Demonic Consultation is an extraordinarily powerful card that needs to be timed corrected, naming the right card for the situation and in a deck specifically designed to abuse it.

I think Ad Nauseam is such a deck, but you need to play it intelligently in order for it to be effective.

-Storm

[Stormanimagus]

Ok. So after receiving a PM from Erik I've decided he's right on many points with where to take this deck in order to prepare it for the current metagame. There a lot of Remora Decks and Tezzeret decks still in the field and Storm Combo decks with a linear approach like this one need to be able to effectively "slow-play" their way to victory. I disagree with Erik on one crucial design point, however. I believe Dark Confidant is extremely strong right now at combating Tezzeret and Remora decks and deserves inclusion. Here's a list I'd like to propose that was partially inspired by Erik.

Ad Nauseam

Land (12):
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained Mire
3 Underground Sea
3 Swamp
1 Tolarian Academy

Artifacts (13):
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
2 Sensei’s Divining Top

Creatures (4):
4 Dark Confidant

Enchantments (1):
1 Necropotence

Sorceries (15):
4 Duress
4 Thoughtsieze
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Imperial Seal
1 Ponder
3 Tendrils Of Agony

Instants (15):
3 Ad Nauseam
4 Dark Ritual
1 Cabal Ritual
3 Chain Of Vapor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor

SB
2 Yixlid Jailer
3 Extirpate
2 Tormod’s Crypt
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
4 Slaughter Pact
1 Darkblast
1 Island

However, I'd also like to point out that, with Confidants, this list is starting to look more and more like a Gro-Strategy where you develop some early CA and then try to "win-slow" via beats + small Tendrils. I'm worried that an actual Gro deck may just do what this deck is trying to do but better. That said, I'd like to offer up you all what I consider to be the most direct Ad Nauseam list, i.e- the list that simply tries to resolve Ad Nauseam at all costs and play around the hate.

Ad Nauseam

Land (12):
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Underground Sea
1 Bayou
3 Swamp

Artifacts (12):
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
4 Chrome Mox
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring

Enchantments (1):
1 Necropotence

Sorceries (16):
4 Duress
4 Thoughtsieze
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Imperial Seal
1 Ponder
4 Tendrils Of Agony

Instants (19):
4 Ad Nauseam
4 Dark Ritual
2 Cabal Ritual
3 Chain Of Vapor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Hurkyl’s Recall

SB
4 Xantid Swarm
1 Tropical Island
1 Bayou
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
3 Extirpate
4 Slaughter Pact

Surprisingly, the only cards I'd consider cutting from the MD are:

1 Necropotence (if you truly want to be winning the turn you cast your big draw spell and you most often want that to be Ad Nauseam)
1 Hurkyl's Recall (a bit of a gamble game 1 vs. Shops because it gives you 0 outs to Chalice @1 but that is a gamble you'll often win as they'll usually Chalice for 0 blind on the play and you can Duress their chalice out of their hand if you are on the play)
1 Cabal Ritual (as Erik pointed out, Threshold is difficult for this deck to achieve quickly so 1 Cabal Ritual might be sufficient. I'm not sure of this, however, as it does produce the magic 5-black mana when you do have threshold that is needed to cast AN)

Thoughts on these lists?

[pierce]

now who wants to cut necro? 


in a meta where remora sees a lot of play, you couldnt pay me to play this deck.

[Lou]

Thoughts on these lists?

I think you are on the right path with the top list. I like Bob.

Can you explain why you cut an Ad Nauseam? That doesn't seem good.

The two Tops are nice. They help with the slow play you were talking about.

I"d want a few more bombs, along the line of Timetwister, Gifts Ungiven or Fact or Fiction. With that in mind, I wouldn't play Necro. I also wouldn't play so many Tendrils, nor Demonic Consultation, so those choices factor in.

[dark burn]

This past blue bell event was the 3d one Ive played with ad nauseam.  The list still hasnt changed except for 2 sideboard slaughter pact instead of tinker/robot.  This past event was loaded with workshop decks, something I wasnt expecting and wasnt prepared for.  I am fine with facing 1 workshop deck at a tourny, but any more and I have problems.  This has led me to finally going up to 12 lands main deck and at least 1 more in the sideboard, perhaps 2.  Because I am going to 12 lands, I will be adding a mox diamond in place of a chrome mox.  I still like every card in the deck and am having trouble finding something to cut for the 12th land.  The first thing that comes to mind is cabal ritual, but cabal can be huge against the workshop decks.  I think Im gonna just pull out random cards until I find one I dont miss.

I had a really fun tournament but I did only end up 3-3.  I made tons of mistakes round 3 against Vinny Forino playing his G/W/b fish deck.  Both games I had rather unimpressive turn 1 plays that were going to lead to really strong turn 2-3s.  Game 1 I didnt know what he was playing and just lost a good game to a more skilled player.  Game 2 I play fetch for basic swamp, imperial seal for black lotus, go.  He plays turn 1 chalice at 0, strip mine, and strips my swamp.  I have no other mana sources in hand or play.  GG.  If he hadnt had the strip mine for my only swamp, I still would have gone off turn 3.  This was my first time playing against him and it was a really enjoyable match.

The other great match was round 6.  I was playing against Eric with tezz and I won game one, he won game 2, and game 3 was really exciting.  We were both definately out of top and and just wanted to have a good time.  It was decided that we would draw our opening 7 and keep without looking.  I was on the play so I picked up my hand, saw a dark rit, ponder, u-sea, voltaic key, mox jet, dark confidant, and something.  This is a great hand for me and Im extatic.  I go land, ponder and see mana crypt, duress, and TIME VAULT.  Awsome, I got a turn 2 win right here.  I order the ponder crypt, vault, duress, draw and play the duress, and we both finally get to see Erics hand.  His hand was nuts as well!!!.  We look and he has something like mox, mox, land, thirst, inkwell, mana drain, and Ancestral.  I take the obvious choice of ancestral and pass the turn.  He goes mox, mox, land, thirst, discards inkwell, and passes.  Well, I though I would have an easy turn 2 win off the back of duress and 4 colorless mana.  Here it goes.  I draw vault, play dark ritual, he lets it resolve, I play time vault and he looks at it for a sec, his eyes start popping out of his head and he mutters "Uh, Ok".  I instantly and excitedly flip down the key, but as my hand is moving he is saying, wait,wait, I have a response.  He sees the key, but is still thinking about responding to the vault.  This sounds like cheating but it absolutely was not!!!!!  It was hilarious because he was so incredibly shocked by seeing vault come down that it took him a few seconds to process the information.  I was also way too eager and played out the key without letting him make a clear decision.  It doesnt matter anyway, he either had to have the force or I just win.  He had the force and I go on the lose the game.  The best part was just watching his eyes bug out, and I could almost see his whole thought process just freeze for a few seconds.

Is anyone else even playing ad nauseam at tournaments?  Am I the only one who considers fast storm decks good right now?