Meadbert's Testing Results: Summer 2009 (A few new lists)

[meadbert]

1. Hermit Vault 100.00 25-10 (55-28)
2. Arcane Oath 96.83 22-8 (49-23)
3. Root Maze Oath 89.92 27-9 (59-31)
4. Arcane Scrying 75.55 23-9 (50-31)
5. Arcane Confidant 72.28 28-13 (63-42)
6. Vault Long 67.78 22-12 (48-36)
7. ICBM Oath. 65.71 22-9 (46-29)
8. Rector Tendrils 63.37 12-7 (27-19)
9. James Oath 57.75 11-9 (27-23)
10. BUG Fish 56.85 8-5 (18-11)
11. Vault Combo 55.20 12-6 (27-18)
12. Grim Long 54.54 14-9 (32-27)
13. Mana Dredge 53.84 12-9 (31-23)
14. Hermit Impulse 53.60 8-10 (23-22)
15. Key/Top 53.35 13-9 (29-25)
16. Fatestitcher Dredge 53.17 4-5 (13-10)
17. Inquiry Uba Stax 50.07 9-6 (21-14)
18. Force Dredge 50.06 8-5 (20-16)
19. Yang Shop Aggro 49.09 9-7 (20-19)
20. Library Warrens Belcher 48.68 12-9 (28-25)
21. Elves 45.21 10-5 (22-15)
22. Tez Man 44.98 11-7 (26-20)
23. Worse than GAT 43.90 10-6 (25-17)
24. R/G Xmas Beats 43.27 6-4 (14-8)
25. Dark Illusions 43.07 10-6 (23-16)
26. Plagiarize 42.11 9-6 (20-17)
27. Mud Aggro 41.91 9-5 (19-13)
28. Wiley Snake 41.62 6-5 (15-10)
29. Duressless Grim Long 41.37 10-7 (24-21)
30. Green Tez 41.22 6-5 (14-12)
31. Crusher with Cropper 39.86 7-7 (17-18)
32. Green Still 38.84 8-9 (19-21)
33. Mystic Remora Landstill 38.70 6-9 (16-21)
34. Arcane Cast 38.62 8-7 (20-20)
35. Dredge with Cropper 38.54 4-4 (11-9)
36. GWS Long 38.13 5-5 (14-13)
37. Drain Nauseam 34.09 5-5 (13-13)
38. 5 Color Tez 33.67 6-6 (15-15)
39. The Perfect Storm 33.11 6-5 (13-14)
40. Tog 32.99 5-5 (12-10)
41. Tinker 31.16 9-4 (19-12)
42. Warrens Belcher 30.66 5-5 (12-12)
43. Tinker Drain Tendrils 30.26 3-5 (10-10)
44. Yesphuden Shop Aggro 30.13 6-5 (14-13)
45. Meandeck Gifts Tez 29.98 5-4 (12-10)
46. Seroogy Stax 29.83 4-5 (11-12)
47. Arsenal Bullshit 29.66 5-6 (12-13)
48. Dark Drain 29.06 5-4 (12-11)
49. Wiley Kudzu 28.94 3-7 (11-16)
50. Intuitive Oath 28.46 5-6 (13-15)
51. Crusher 27.93 5-5 (12-11)
52. Field Dredge 27.66 1-3 (5-6)
53. AK Bomberman 27.30 3-4 (7-9)
54. Repeal Gifts 26.71 2-4 (7-8)
55. B/U Vault Combo 26.51 5-6 (12-16)
56. Survival 26.46 2-4 (6-9)
57. Dark Gifts 26.17 3-5 (9-11)
58. Cropper Enlightened Land 26.10 2-4 (8-9)
59. Kudzu 26.10 3-4 (8-9)
60. Drain Tendrils 25.76 3-5 (8-12)
61. Welder Combo 25.43 4-5 (10-11)
62. Squee Land 25.39 5-5 (13-13)
63. Goblins 25.27 3-5 (9-10)
64. Turbo Oath 25.03 3-5 (8-11)
65. ET Cropper Oath. 24.99 5-5 (13-12)
66. Turtenwald Control 24.61 5-5 (11-14)
67. Composite Tez 24.61 4-4 (9-8)
68. Mud 24.03 3-4 (9-9)
69. Intuition Tendrils 23.92 2-4 (7-9)
70. Chang Stax 23.82 5-6 (11-15)
71. Replenish Oath 23.51 3-5 (9-13)
72. Gruba Stax 23.39 5-5 (10-14)
73. Meandeck GAT 23.17 2-4 (6-8)
74. Thoughtcast Tez 23.04 4-5 (9-13)
75. Bauble Dredge 22.65 2-5 (7-11)
76. Shop Combo 22.20 2-4 (8-10)
77. Parfait 21.80 3-5 (8-12)
78. Strategic Dragon 21.16 4-5 (9-12)
79. Vroman Painter 19.99 3-5 (8-12)
80. Shop Land 19.10 2-4 (6-9)
81. BGW Fish 18.70 3-5 (7-11)
82. Mask Not 18.49 1-4 (5-9)
83. Goth Slaver 18.08 0-3 (2-6)
84. Meandeck Ad Nauseam 17.98 2-4 (5-9)
85. Restricted 17.92 1-4 (6-9)
86. Turbo Blue 17.78 1-4 (6-8)
87. Ancient Land 17.56 2-4 (6-9)
88. Uba Land 17.54 1-3 (3-6)
89. Mono Black Tendrils 17.51 3-4 (7-10)
90. Painter Combo 16.82 3-4 (7-10)
91. Shop Land with ET + Cropper 15.96 1-3 (4-6)
92. Colorless Dredge 15.72 2-4 (7-9)
93. Deez Goyfs 15.69 2-4 (5-8)
94. Benson Hate 15.29 1-4 (4-9)
95. Bob Bomberman 15.07 1-3 (4-6)
96. Tez Oath 14.90 1-3 (3-7)
97. Wiley Dredge 14.58 1-3 (4-6)
98. Elves with Cradle 13.87 2-4 (5-8)
99. Fast Dredge 13.56 0-3 (2-6)
100. Dragon with Cropper 13.46 2-4 (6-10)
101. Powder Uba Stax 13.41 3-4 (7-9)
102. U/R Landstill 13.34 1-4 (3-8)
103. Gilded Claw 12.63 0-3 (2-6)
104. Bob Nauseam 11.77 1-4 (3-8)
105. Pitch Painter 11.73 0-3 (2-6)
106. Super Fish 11.69 0-3 (2-6)
107. Wiley Shop Aggro 11.69 2-5 (4-11)
108. Atog Lord Control 11.20 1-4 (3-9)
109. Weenie Bomberman 10.89 1-3 (3-7)
110. R/U Trans Stax 10.86 0-3 (1-6)
111. Pitch Long 10.64 1-3 (4-7)
112. Xerox Braids 9.89 0-3 (1-6)
113. Turbo Gush 9.29 0-3 (1-6)
114. GWS X 8.85 0-3 (1-6)
115. Stax with Cropper 8.60 0-3 (1-6)
116. Turbo Nauseam 8.59 0-3 (1-6)
117. Blax 8.24 0-3 (1-6)
118. Intuition Nauseam 8.06 1-3 (2-6)
119. Xerox 6.57 1-3 (3-7)
120. Cerebral Assasin 6.26 0-3 (1-6)
121. Mad Man Mike Shop Aggro 6.15 0-3 (1-6)
122. U/W Fish 6.07 0-3 (1-6)
123. Strategic Slaver 4.30 0-3 (0-6)
124. Meditate Remora 4.27 0-3 (0-6)
125. Turbo Land 4.08 0-3 (0-6)
126. G/W Beatz 3.99 0-3 (1-6)
127. Spell Snare Tez 3.61 0-3 (0-6)
128. Capsule Slaver 3.21 0-3 (0-6)

So those are the full blown results.  Last winter which was the last time I really completed a round of testing I actually saw pretty similar stuff.  I saw 5 Oath decks in the top 8 along with 2 Long decks and then an Arcane Denial deck.

I then began testing this Spring and part way through the restricted list changed massively and the rules changed significantly as well.  This meant I was testing an obsolete game that no longer existed.  I decided to significantly decrease the criteria for eliminating decks and finished that round quickly.  Because the meta game was obsolete and because the end was truncated the top 8 did not mean much.  What I did see was Oath do reasonably well again with multiple top 8s.  Also saw something like 3 decks with fulls sets of Drains and Rituals top 16.  I also saw a lot of Null Rod in general.

For this summer I upped the number of round a deck must fall below even to three.  This meant there would be no more 0-2 drops for decks that had some bad luck with their draws/matchups.  Decks can still get unlucky in their first 3 matchups.  As before the few rounds a deck played the less their ranking means.  Just because Spell Snare Tez started 0-3 and was ranked 127th does not mean it is bad.  It may have just had a little bit of bad luck.  Even the best of us can begin a tournament 0-3 (unless we drop at 0-2)

Null Rod
The biggest change I noticed compared to last round was Null Rod.  Last round I saw a lot of Null Rod decks (including some fairly janky ones) floating to the top.
This time that did not happen at all.  This was against my expectations.  I had expected that without Thirst in the metagame, Drain decks would be more likely to get stuck with dead artifacts in hand and this would make Null Rod much more powerful.  Basically my theory was that Thirst is a good card with Null Rod out.
This was wrong.  In hind sight it was obviously wrong, but it took me a while to figure it out.  Basically, if Thirst is so good with Null Rod out then where are all the decks with 4xThirst and 4xRod?  Drawing Rod off thirst cannot be that bad.  Supposedly drawing Thirst with Rod already out is good (according to my theory.)  Therefore there should be all sort of great decks with full sets of Thirsts and Rods floating around.  It turns out that other than Old School ICBM Oath with 2 Rods and 3 Thirsts such a deck does not exist at all.
Well what happens to Drain decks when Thirst is restricted?  They most frequently substitute in Dark Confidant.  Is Dark Confidant good with Null Rod out?  Well, are there any decks that run full sets of Dark Confidants and Null Rods?  The answer is you can find decks packing 4 of each showing up Left, Right and Center at any tournament.  Half the fish decks out there will run full sets of each.  Obviously Dark Confidant is a strong card with Null Rod out.  For that reason, when Drain decks swapped out Thirst for Dark Confidant they actually improved their matchup against Null Rod.  This made Null Rod a much worse card than it once was.


Oath of Druids
If you include sideboards, then 6 of the top 9 decks are Oath decks.  This past winter I saw Oath grab 5/8 top spots so this is not unprecedented.  Also, with Dark Confidants showing up all over the place and with Crop Rotation reviving Stax, Oath seemed to be poised to do quite well so this is not totally surprising.  The scale of the dominance is more surprising than anything else.  Basically, many decks just have weak sideboards against Oath.  The other decks that floated to the top were exceptions.  The Arcane Decks packed Engineered Explosives which is solid in that matchup.  Becker's Vault Long list had Extirpate in the board along with 10xForce/Duress MisD.  It is important t point out a few aspects of the Oath decks that did do well.  First of all they were not Null Rod decks.  ICBM Oath has 2 Rods in the main and Root Maze Oath had 2 in the board, but out of 6 Oath decks in the top 9 that was it.  Turbo Oath, which had been the top Oath decks for probably 9 months of testing really fell off the map here.  Partly it may have had some bad matchups, but the bigger problem is that it relied very heavily on Null Rod and that card was just less powerful than it once was.

Long
Last time I did a full round of Testing a deck I callled Duressless Grim Long did well.  Since then it lost to traditional Grim Long in the spring and then again just now.  Grim Long is most likely the better deck.  Along with Menendian's Grim Long there were several other Long decks to do well including Becker's Vault Long and Rector Tendrils.  The last 2 are not really Long decks.  It would be more accurate to say decks with Dark Rituals.  Dark Ritual seems to remain strong.

Where are Tez and Dredge?
If one just looks at the top Tez and Dredge are noticeably absent.  If you dig a bit further what you will find is that both decks do quite well early on.  That is to say that Tez decks and Dredge decks are far more likely than average to make it into the top 64.  Although it had no deck in the top 8, Dredge had 3 in the top 18 which is not too shabby.
Tez seems to be more complicated.   Perhaps Tez should be seperated from Time Vault.  Time Vault did just fine.  Hermit Vault (named after Lim-Dul's Vault) had a Time Vault in the board.  Vault Long at #6 ran it.  Then Vault Combo at #11 had it.  Key/Top at #15 was a Welder fueld Key/Vault list.  Force Dredge at #18 had Time Vault in the main.  Then Tez Man had it at 22.  According to my unscientific perusing of morphling.de and the tournament forums here, I notice that on average you have about 2 Time Vault decks per top 8 which is to say about a quarter of the top decks pack Time Vault.  That is consistent with what I saw here with there being 6 in the top 22.  Basically I have not noticed Time Vault as a card do better or worse than actual tournament data suggests.  What has been different is Tez's performance.  The top deck that ran at least one Tez was Tez Man at #22.  Strangely it ran 4!  This is way too many.  The only way it got that way is I was adjusting some ancient Net Deck and found a deck that had 4 Thirsts and no black thus no Dark Confidant.  I had no obvious choice to replace the Thirsts with so I probably saw 2-3 Tez's and upped it to 4.  Anyway, why on Earth do no Tez's make it in the top 21 decks and then deck #22 suddenly has 4?  My theory is that Trinket Mage does make Tez significantly better by making Tez a reliable turn 3 play. 

Arcane Denial:
I tested 5 Arcane Denial decks this round and all did fairly well.  The 2 worst were Plagiarize and Arcane Cast (with Thoughtcasts.)  They both finished around 30th.
Arcane Oath, Arcane Scrying and Arcane Confidant all finished in the top 5.  This is even better than I expected, since I was expecting the loss of Thirst to hurt more.  The 3 Arcane decks that top 5ed all had solid dredge and Oath boards which helped.  They are also in theory good against Combo, although I was seeing Vault Long do surprisingly well against them.  Engineered Explosives is good in all 3 matchups.  It can remove Oath, or Bridge tokens or Xantid Swarm.

Arcane Confidant and Arcane Scrying can be found here:
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=38527.0

Here are some of the specific lists:

Hermit Vault - By Darien Elderfield
1 Wooded Foothills
4 Polluted Delta
4 Flooded Strand
1 Bayou
4 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
4 Lim-Dul's Vault
1 Dragon Breath
1 Bridge From Below
1 Dread Return
1 Demonic Tutor
3 Cabal Therapy
1 Imperial Seal
1 Vampiric Tutor
3 Narcomoeba
1 Cognivore
1 Time Walk
4 Force Of Will
1 Gush
4 Misdirection
4 Daze
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
4 Hermit Druid
4 Worldly Tutor
sideboard
4 Forbidden Orchard
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
3 Progenitus
1 Ponder
1 Mystical Tutor
4 Oath Of Druids

A deck similar to this was created by my teammate about a year ago.  Since then variations have been piloted by Cody Vinci.
Basically you run a ton of tutors for Hermit Druid including 4 Worldly Tutors and possibly 4 Lim-Dul's Vault.  Then you have 15 counterspells in the form of Force of Will, Misdirection, Daze and Cabal Therapy
The turn after you resolve Druid you activate him.  At this point it is pretty clear what happens, but a bunch of Narcomoeba's hit play thanks to Druid.  You sac those to Therapy away threats in opponent's hand and any combo pieces in your hand.  You then Sac bridge tokens to Dread Return a 20+/20+ Coggy with Dragon's Breath on him and swing for the win.
Tinker->DSC can be added in case you want to doge grave hate or if you want that second swing.  You could also keep a Progenitus in the main.  Since it pitches to Force and MisD it is not terrible in hand.  The worst card is probably Gush.
Post board you have the option to go to Oath.  That dodges most grave hate, but you do have the Extirpate Issue.  For dodging Extirpate you want to use DSC, Progenitus or a diverse creature set.  I ran Progenitus because it pitches to Force, and is not bounced by Tyrant.  DSC has the advantage of being able to attach Dragon's Breath.

Post board you want either Tinker->DSC or Vault/Key.

This deck reliably assembles turn 2 wins with 2xCounter backup and turn 3 wins with 3xCounter backup.  It is very good.

A similar version that has Tinker-.DSC in the main and a different Oath plan and that uses Impulse instead of Lim-Dul's Vault finished 14th so this was not just 1 deck getting lucky.

Arcane Oath is a deck that I have had around for a while and it showed promise from time to time, but never did this well.  The main issue it used to have was that without black it did not have enough ways to find Orchard which was a weakness against the many non creature decks.  This was mitigated in two ways by the Thirst's restriction.  First, many decks now pack Dark Confidant, eliminating the need to find Orchard.  Second, I ended up swapping out the Thirsts for Intuitions since most of this deck is made of 4ofs.  Intuition was a huge improvement since find Force or Tormod's Crypt is easier as is finding Oath and Orchard.

Here is the list:
4 Forbidden Orchard
2 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
2 Tropical Island
4 Island
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Pithing Needle
4 Engineered Explosives
4 Tormod's Crypt
1 Triskelivus
1 Tidespout Tyrant
1 Time Walk
4 Force Of Will
4 Intuition
1 Thirst For Knowledge
4 Arcane Denial
4 Mana Drain
4 Muddle The Mixture
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
4 Oath Of Druids
1 Gaea's Blessing
sideboard
4 Mishra's Factory
1 Strip Mine
4 Wasteland
3 Pithing Needle
3 Life From The Loam

The sideboard was built partly for Dredge and then mostly for Stax and then the Oath mirror.  The sideboard's strength against Oath was very important for Arcane Oath's strong performance.  For this reason I doubt it would do as well in tournaments where Oath is not well represented.

Darrien had suggested Oona instead of Trikelivus and Wiley reminded me of that so that is probably better.  Pitching Oona to Force would not be bad and it is hardcastable.  Also, I think I would probably run a second Tyrant so I could pitch it to Thirst.  Probably I would drop the token Needle in the main.

The key to Arcane Oath's power is its flexibility.  Muddle can be a counter spell or find Oath or find Walk with Oath out.
Arcane Denial can be a counter spell or draw 3 cards.  Intuition can find either combo piece or defense.  If you are playing against Long you have 16 counters including (Denial and Muddle) and then Intuitions that can find Force in desperation.  You also have Tormod's Crypt and Explosives to hate out other decks.

Against Combo you can basically play control.  If you end up playing Shop Aggro you instead use Denial to draw and then Muddle/Intuition to search up Oath.  The results is you just go for the jugular with a quick Oath.  Once Thirsts were swapped out for Intuitions the deck actually got stronger.


Root Maze Oath can be found here:
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=38690.0

Vault Long can be found here:
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=37924.0

ICBM Oath is Jason Akin's "ICBM" list that used Tyrants from World's a year ago.

James Oath and BUG Fish are so common that there is no need to go into them.  I will say that since Becker did not post a sideboard with his original BUG Fish list I went ahead and boarded it to beat Oath and Dredge.  The strong Oath board was key here.

Rector Tendrils is a bit Janky.  In the past it has finished in the top 16 or 32 here and there, but never done quite this well.  Perhaps it just got lucky or perhaps it is taking advantage of those Dark Confidants floating around.  Here it is:
3 City Of Brass
3 Gemstone Mine
4 Forbidden Orchard
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
1 Memory Jar
1 Wheel Of Fortune
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Necropotence
1 Tendrils Of Agony
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Demonic Tutor
4 Cabal Therapy
1 Imperial Seal
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Dark Ritual
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mind's Desire
1 Timetwister
1 Tinker
1 Time Walk
1 Hurykl's Recall
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Chain Of Vapor
1 Mystical Tutor
4 Oath Of Druids
1 Regrowth
1 Krosan Reclamation
2 Academy Rector
1 Enlightened Tutor
sideboard
3 Hellkite Overloard
4 Empty The Warrens
4 Planar Void
4 Orim's Chant

It appears I never even updated it to use multiple Enlightened Tutors.  I am actually not sure I would run more than 1 though.
Basically you have Grim Long list with Duress and Grim Tutor pulled out and then Cabal Therapy, Oath of Druids and Academy Rector put in.  You can win by Oathing up Rector, sacking him to Therapy and getting Bargain/Necro.  There are Krosan Reclamations in case both end up in yard.  It is very common to just to run out a Ritual, Therapy for Force, hardcast Rectory, sac to Therapy again getting Bargain and winning that way.  That frequently happens turn 2.  If Bargain is Needled you always have Necro.  Post board you can bring in Warrens or Overloards for a less Graveyard dependant plan.  Obviously this list did well this time, but I am pretty sure I have run almost the same thing in the past and watched it struggle so do not expect it to be super awesome.

Mana Dredge is pretty traditional for lists with Breakthrough and Careful Study.  It does play through Needle well right now.

I do not think Key/Top is that good.  Basically it is a Slaverish build with 4xVoltaic Key and 4xDiving Top and then Welders.  I originally wrote it out with 4xThirst and then swapped in Courier Capsule when Thirst was restricted.  I do not know how it did so well.  Maybe lucky?

Inquiry Uba Stax did not do well because of Burning Inquiry.  Basically I boarded that out in every matchup after determining it was not good.  That Inquiry Uba Stax did better than the same list with Resistors should only be interpreted as evidence of how bad Resistor is now that Vault and Key exist.

[Anusien]

Don't you need more netdecks from the past year or so?  I feel like you've maybe established which rogue decks are the best, but not given us any useful data for the format.

[Vegeta2711]

Why did nobody tell me the best decks in the format were ones that nobody played? Not just the very best one, the top FIVE!

Seriously, I know I'm gonna sound like an ass, but what's the point of listing results for decks that were viable like 6 years ago (rector anything)? I mean this seems great if I ever go to a tournament at your house, but otherwise all the results and conclusions drawn from them seem irrelevant. If there was more decks I was expecting to actually play against, I could see this amount of playtesting being a bit helpful, as it stands though... meh.

[pierce]

Indeed. Now the last time you posted something similar, I was quick to criticize that such "research" was completely arbitrary if conducted alone. Was this round done testing exclusively with yourself as well? If not, how many other pilots were there?

[M.Solymossy]

The problem I see with these results are that you're two-fisting these against one-another.   And lets be honest, you're going to be bias towards your pet decks, and make stupid plays with the other ones just to feed the results.  It's no secret the Arcane Deck and like, a billion Oath decks did well, even though they all should lose horribly to anything ever.   

[forests failed you]

You forgot to do the following decks:

129. Nefashu Control
130. Ninja Fae Goblins
131. Minty Fresh Deck

I would be particularly interested in seeing how those decks matched up against "Hermit Impulse," "Crush With Cropper," and "Squee Land." 

[meadbert]

Don't you need more netdecks from the past year or so?  I feel like you've maybe established which rogue decks are the best, but not given us any useful data for the format.

I try to net deck the top decks.  For this summer it was tough because I was beginning in June with a new metagame and new lists were just coming out.  I think I substituted in Rich Shay's Control deck for Slaver early on.  Other than that I totally missed the new Sphinx Tez lists.  Obviously Steel CIty Vault did not exist.  The Stax lists were mostly from before Thirst's restriction.  What this means is that my net decks can be three months behind.

All the criticism is valid.  I probably play Arcane Denial better than other decks and it can be tough to be fair in 2 fisted testing.

I try to balance diversity with a desire to run enough good decks to not totally skew the results towards decks that are good at beating bad decks rather than decks that are good against other good decks.  "Crusher wiith Cropper" and "Squee Land" are in there for diversity's sake.  They each had even records, which in nothing special given the large number of janky decks.


Although some of my pet decks did float to the top, many did not.  Green Still and was fairly far down and Replenish Oath was even further down, so at least this should help sort out pet decks.

Also, while netdecked Tez lists did not do particularly well, Vault Storm, James Oath, BUG Fish and Menendian Grim Long all did quite well.

The Hermit Druid decks are really, really good.  I still stand behind Arcane Denial as well.

[Smmenen]

By "Menendian Grim Long' do you mean TPS?  Because I concluded this spring that Grim Long was a pretty awful choice.   I had trouble racing Elves.  

[meadbert]

By "Menendian Grim Long' do you mean TPS?  Because I concluded this spring that Grim Long was a pretty awful choice.   I had trouble racing Elves.   

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=28288

[Smmenen]

By "Menendian Grim Long' do you mean TPS?  Because I concluded this spring that Grim Long was a pretty awful choice.   I had trouble racing Elves.  

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=28288

Meadbert, some suggestions:

1) I think your testing reports would benefit from greater transparency.   At a minimum, post opening hands and salient lines of play, if not for all matches, then for at least some.  

2) Greater clarity in names.  For example, first decklist has misleading name.  Most people will think Vault is Time Vault.  It's far from clear what many of these decks are.

3) Stronger organization in your explanations.   Your first post rambled.    There are two other posters on the mana drain with long, rambly styles: Ambivalent Duck and Harlequin.  You do the same, but not in the same degree.


In terms of the actual testing results, I would rebuilt your gauntlet to better reflect an actual Vintage field.    The fact of the matter is that a certain proportion of all fields will be Mana Drain decks, Workshop decks, etc.    Rather than put  so many of your pet decks up, include a closer ratio of those.   I'm certain you can come up with 15 Tezzeret variants.  Hell, I could come up with 20:

1) Itou Tez (maindeck Swamp, 5 bounce/removal spells)
2) 3 Bob Tez - Standard
3) 3 Bob Tez tweaked for Fish/Stax metagame
4) 3 Bob Tez teaked for Control metagame
5) 3 Night's Whisper Tez -standard
6) 3 Night's Whisper tez with anti-Fish/Stax package
7) 4 Thoughtcast Tez European Style
8) 4 Thoughtcast Tez with Ponder/Gifts/Imperial Seal
9) Repeal Tez with 4 Bob
10) Painter Tez with Bob
11) Painter Tez
12) Arcane Tez
13) Tez man (I.e. Bomberman Tez)
14) 2 Mystica Remora + Bob Tez
15) 3-4 Mystical Remora Tez
16) WUB Yang-Tez with Aven Mindcensor
17) Highlander Tez 1
18) Highlander Tez 2

Etc.

See this for more ideas: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/17772_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Designing_Tezzeret_Control_For_the_Future.html

The fact of the matter that decks perform relative to the field.  If you want even relatively useful data, you will want to try to create a field that is closer to the norm than what you have, I would say.  

[meadbert]

Thank you for your constructive criticism.  I will try to move to a more representative gauntlet.  I do obviously want to try new and untested decks, but moving to where there are 96 "real" decks and maybe 32 test decks could be better.

I do take notes in the form of a sentence or two about every matchup so I have those for review.  What I may do in the future is actually track more of a play by play.

Getting back to Elves vs Grim Long.  Did you really find you had trouble racing Elves?  I find that hands without Duress usually have enough gas to win first while hands with Duress are effective at slowing Elves since when playing Elves I generally want to lead with a mana Elve and hold Glimpse or Skullclamp for turn 2.  This gives Grim Long a chance to Duress those even on the draw.  Am I playing Elves wrong?  Should I lead with Clamp against Grim Long even if means I am unlikely to win till at least turn 3?

I actually found that Grim Long struggled with Tez more than anything else.  Oath and Dredge can be raced and played through.  The token Orchard randomly hoses Oath.  Post board Leylines were good against Dredge.  Grim Long's matchup against the Denial decks is tolerable because Xantid swarm shuts off more counter magic.  Tez's 4 Duress effects and 6 Force/MisDs along with Becker Vault Storm deck were what I found to be the toughest matchup.

[Smmenen]

Thank you for your constructive criticism.  I will try to move to a more representative gauntlet.  I do obviously want to try new and untested decks, but moving to where there are 96 "real" decks and maybe 32 test decks could be better.

That makes alot more sense.

If 96 of your 128 decks are test decks, then obviously mostly 'rogue' decks are going to proliferate the top.  It's really simple: decks perform in a context.  If you are creating a completely new context, then your lessons aren't transferable.   In a tournament, decks need to win 4 or 5 matches top make top 8 out of the decks that they face. 

Also, if you read the articles I've written in the last couple of weeks, 3 cards can make a huge difference in the performance of a deck against the field.    Design matters tremendously, even a 3 cards difference.  

[AmbivalentDuck]

3) Stronger organization in your explanations.   Your first post rambled.    There are two other posters on the mana drain with long, rambly styles: Ambivalent Duck and Harlequin.

1.  Expected/preferred rhetorical styles vary by field.  Me computational neuroscientist, you lawyer.

2. *Your* failure to understand the organizing principles that make a thought cohesive make it no less cohesive.

3.  If you had made a longer, more complete post using well-qualified language, I probably wouldn't have to be saying this right now.

[Joblin Velder]

3) Stronger organization in your explanations.   Your first post rambled.    There are two other posters on the mana drain with long, rambly styles: Ambivalent Duck and Harlequin.

1.  Expected/preferred rhetorical styles vary by field.  Me computational neuroscientist, you lawyer.

2. *Your* failure to understand the organizing principles that make a thought cohesive make it no less cohesive.

3.  If you had made a longer, more complete post using well-qualified language, I probably wouldn't have to be saying this right now.

i lol'd

[Beralt]

Comment on your first deck - Hermit Vault - have you tried Lord of Extinction over Cognivore? - it seems that you you have plenty of blue to pitch to FoW and LoE seems like it solve any problems that arrive via lifegain, such as a mini-Tendrils.

[Harlequin]

3) Stronger organization in your explanations.   Your first post rambled.    There are two other posters on the mana drain with long, rambly styles: Ambivalent Duck and Harlequin.

1.  Expected/preferred rhetorical styles vary by field.  Me computational neuroscientist, you lawyer.
2. *Your* failure to understand the organizing principles that make a thought cohesive make it no less cohesive.
3.  If you had made a longer, more complete post using well-qualified language, I probably wouldn't have to be saying this right now.

Yeah, ramble pretty much describes my posting style.  I'm fine with that.  I would hope that the audience enjoys a little 'walk in the woods' with me when I do ramble though.  A bit more on the Commentary, Op-ed type side - not so much about precision and detail.  I like to think that I have the ability to break things down into smaller parts, and give examples that people relate to.

If you want to know what -I really- think, I think there are a few people who take themselves WAY too seriously on this site.  Here a little rambling for you... If the rocket ship was leaving Earth today, and there were only two seats left... and it came down to Me, The Lawyer, and The Computational Neuroscientist; I'm sure I'd still be stuck here waving goodbye while you guys blasted off.  

[Demonic Attorney]

Smmenen and AmbivalentDuck, take it to PM.  Meadbert clearly put a lot of effort into this post, let's not derail it with digressions and spam.

[meadbert]

Comment on your first deck - Hermit Vault - have you tried Lord of Extinction over Cognivore? - it seems that you you have plenty of blue to pitch to FoW and LoE seems like it solve any problems that arrive via lifegain, such as a mini-Tendrils.

I actually have not looked at that.  One issue is the lack of flying.  Even with Cognivore, there are issues with cards like Narcomoeba or Aven Mindscensor where you cannot win the turn you use Druid.  The solution is to either run Dragon Fangs or a token Progenitus in the main.  I would lean towards Progenitus since it pitches to Force and MisD and saves a sideboard slot.

With Lord of Extinction you lose the option of using the Dragon's cards because the CMC is only 5.  This means that not only can you be blocked, but you lose haste.

There are are other options including running Sharuum the Hegemon with Time Vault and Voltaic Key.  Sharuum is blue and thus pitches to Force and in case of Graveyard hate you always have the Key/Vault win.  The trouble is it requires more spots.

[meadbert]

After rereading my original post it is pretty much all over the place.  In the interest of clarifying my main points I will briefly list them below:

1:  Oath of Druids is good right now because of Dark Confidant.
2:  Null Rod is bad right now because of the same Dark Confidant.  Rods slow a game down, so playing one when your opponent has Dark Confidant in play is weak.
3:  Arcane Denial and Baubles remain the best replacement for Brainstorm/Ponder/Scroll/Thirst.

[pierce]

conclusions 1 & 2 make me question conclusion 3.

The winning decks from the three largest tournaments this year on American soil (ICBM both days, Worlds) all sported at least 3 dark confidant. Which is about 300% more than the number of either baubles and denials.

[M.Solymossy]

Comment on your first deck - Hermit Vault - have you tried Lord of Extinction over Cognivore? - it seems that you you have plenty of blue to pitch to FoW and LoE seems like it solve any problems that arrive via lifegain, such as a mini-Tendrils.

I actually have not looked at that.  One issue is the lack of flying.  Even with Cognivore, there are issues with cards like Narcomoeba or Aven Mindscensor where you cannot win the turn you use Druid.  The solution is to either run Dragon Fangs or a token Progenitus in the main.  I would lean towards Progenitus since it pitches to Force and MisD and saves a sideboard slot.

With Lord of Extinction you lose the option of using the Dragon's cards because the CMC is only 5.  This means that not only can you be blocked, but you lose haste.

There are are other options including running Sharuum the Hegemon with Time Vault and Voltaic Key.  Sharuum is blue and thus pitches to Force and in case of Graveyard hate you always have the Key/Vault win.  The trouble is it requires more spots.

You could just play Sutured Ghoul + Dragons Fangs + Lord of Extinction, and hit people for 45+ with haste and trample.

[Tobi]

There are are other options including running Sharuum the Hegemon with Time Vault and Voltaic Key.  Sharuum is blue and thus pitches to Force and in case of Graveyard hate you always have the Key/Vault win.  The trouble is it requires more spots.

Does this work? You still need to draw cards when you have infinite turns.

[meadbert]

You would need a DSC or Progenitus and I think you get infinite Bridge Tokens so you only need 1 turn.
To survive forever you can run DSC/Progenitus along with Gigapede.

I was also PMed regarding using the old Flash kill with Revelark.

[meadbert]

conclusions 1 & 2 make me question conclusion 3.

The winning decks from the three largest tournaments this year on American soil (ICBM both days, Worlds) all sported at least 3 dark confidant. Which is about 300% more than the number of either baubles and denials.

The evidence that you sight supports that Dark Confidant is good and backs up my first 2 points.  It does not refute my third point unless there were in fact several folks running Denials at those tournaments and they failed to perform.  I definitely miss the days of Star City Games posting the decklists for each and every deck because that tells you what is failing along with what is not failing.  I only here about a Denial deck when it does well.  No one ever posts about how they tried it at a tourney and it failed so I really have no idea whether is has been frequently tried and then frequently failed or if the only guy to ever try it was Martin and he won that tournament.

[Harlequin]

You'd need 2 Sharuums, 1 Bridge, and 1 "other" card to kill with infinite zombies.  The "other" card could be 1 of several things..

The basic loop is Sharuum-A gets DR'ed, targets Sharuum-B with the trigger.  That Sharuum enters play, The trigger occurs but itsn't yet put on the stack - becase the Legend Rule has to occur first.  So both Sharuums hit the yard.  Now the Trigger goes on the stack, and thus can target Sharuum-A.  And this continues, all the while your 1 bridge is continously triggering.  At some point you opt to instead target your "other" card and win.

One option would be Possessed Portal.  You have infinite zombies to feed into the portal, and your opponent will get one turn before you mow them down with zombies.  Its a fairly nice choice as it prevents you from decking yourself, and eventually removes ANY permenant that would prevent you from winning.  

Another option would be something that lets your Zombies get there this turn: So for example Akroma's Memorial, or Alter of Dementia.  

This whole plan falls apart if they can remove your bridge at instant speed though.

[meadbert]

Removing Bridges at instant speed is not a concern as you had Therapies to pillage their hand before going off.  Sharuum may be the best plan.  I am guessing the 3rd Sharuum is worth it so you can pitch one in hand to Force/MisD.  That means replace Coggy + Dragon's Breath with 3xSharuum and then the other card.

I would probably drop Gush and the 4th Lim-Dul's Vault to fit those in.

[BruiZar]

Altar of Dementia is a good pick. Against oath it obviously sucks but otherwise its a great way of winning now with Sharuum Sharuum.

Also, Meadbert, even though there is room for improvement / clarity in your research, hats off to the sheer amount of work you put into this. It would be great if you can make this more readable in the future and the suggested 96/32 netdeck/roguedeck sounds like a much more representative sample.

[Harlequin]

Well its a little more complicated than that.  You have to dump your yard leaving bridge vulnerable, and THEN use therepy to blow out thier hand.  But that's not even really what I was talking about was creatures who can kill themselves, or abilites that allow you to axe your own guys.  

@ Alter.  I think Alter is the most narrow of the 3, I like Portal the best and Akroma's Memorial 2nd best.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Removing Bridges at instant speed is not a concern as you had Therapies to pillage their hand before going off.

Mogg Fanatic/Qasali Pridemage would remain a problem.  Consider maindeck Leyline of the Void and Helm of Obediance as an alternate Sharrum target for the kill.  This also makes maindeck Tinker a kill without always needing to stick a Druid.

[Beralt]

Oops good call on the Dragon Fangs not working with the Lord of Extinction - apologies on the Cognivore - seems better.

Comment on the side here, I think Oath is improving somewhat as creatures are slowly reentering vintage, whether it's Dark Confidant (many builds), Magus of the Unseen (maindeck in Vintage World Champion Tez build), Teeg/Pridemage (GW Beatings) or Goblin Welder (Steel Vault).

I do like the Sharuums but they seem to take up so many slots.