[Free Article] Catching up with Vintage

[Will]

Matt, I enjoyed your article very much specifically your thoughts on the deck after testing which was especially helpful for me.  In particular, hearing what cards you felt led you to victory the most gave me more information and background on Stax theory.  While my thoughts on RB vs. 5cStax differ based on our experiences with the decks your analysis on the deck which you elaborated on in the car ride home from The Philly Open IV helped to open my eyes more to the possibilities in the archetype.  Your thoughts on what could change in the deck to benefit it, more specifically adding a Vampiric Tutor is the first step towards switching over from RB to 5cStax.  Even though RB plays duals, Bobs, less mana, and Null Rod tutors is what makes 5c an appealing deck choice because no matter what your opponent does you can or should try to answer their problems which is the weakness of the RB list to the best of my knowledge.  With RB you sacrifice the ability to "Go broken" and comeback from being behind for a higher threat density which may or may not correct in our specific metagame and for me at least is the ultimate question you must ask yourself when choosing one Stax list over another.  Thanks again for taking time out of your life to write another good, free, eternal related article. 

[LordHomerCat]

If 16% of the field played Ichorid hate, how would you feel as an Ichorid player?

The thing is, Ichorid almost auto-wins against anyone not running hate.  It literally crushes everyone who doesn't board against it at an incredibly consistent rate.

TPS is not far above even with the field.  You are ahead of a lot of decks, but generally not by much and only if you play really well.  The fact that they have no hate does not practically guarantee you will win like in dredge: it just means you will stay slightly ahead.

[Marske]

@LHC,

TPS is not far above even with the field.

Even if it's slightly above even with the field, it still means you have a 55-60% favorable matchup during most of the tournament which should be enough in my book. I don't think Vintage decks in general have that much of a difference, I can't imagine any matchup being 20-80 or even 30-70 at this time. Most of the decks are around 55-60% favorable (or 45-40% unfavorable whichever you prefer) so having even a slightly above even matchup against most of the field would clinch it for me.

You are ahead of a lot of decks, but generally not by much and only if you play really well.

The same can be said for just about any deck in Vintage currently imo.

The fact that they have no hate does not practically guarantee you will win like in dredge: it just means you will stay slightly ahead.

Being slightly ahead should be enough for any decent pilot to win.

As a TPS pilot, I generally have a sense for my opponent's resistance.    I managed to bait out all of his other countermagic, and he was left with only one card in his hand, tapped down, and I think he only runs 1 Trap maindeck.   of course you go for it. 

Ok, so because of this you don't run TPS? It just really sounds like a bad beats type of story, the chances of him having that trap at that exact time probably weren't really that big.