Worldwake vintage predictions - vroman

[vroman]

Some obvious choices here. Seems like a good set

http://unpopularideasclub.blogspot.com/2010/01/worldwake-summary.html

Definite playable
Lodestone Golem
Bojuka Bog
Natures Claim
Thada Adel Acquisitor
Ricochet Trap

Not Unlikely
Jace Mindsculptor
Wind Zendikon
Anowon Ruin Sage

Not Impossible
Terastodon
Loam Lion
Slavering Null
Dispell

Definitely Not
Treasure Hunt
Amulet of Vigor
Explore

[voltron00x]

I'd put Thada and Trap in "Not Unlikely" personally, but I think you're pretty much spot-on with these assessments.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Only Treasure Hunt is contentious and that's contingent on future printings. 

[Killane]

Agree 93.34%. The remaining 6.76% is Treasure Hunt, which I think may be a fringe player in some decks that will be "okay". The card is pwoerful enough for Vintage it just doesn't have the right home right now.

[Wagner]

Not sure why "Anowon Ruin Sage" is in there. Isn't abyss just better in decks that want to clear the board of creatures? Only way I can see this being better is against Shop and it seems hard to get to 5 mana to cast him. Sure, he is a win condition by himself, but decks that would run abyss in the first place usually don't rely on creatures to win. Also a lot more fragile than abyss and starts one attack step later.

As for Richochet trap, isn't it just like a bad REB? Except for Recall, it will act as an extra counter in counter wars 90% of the time, but it won't be able to hit Tinker, Twister, Tezz, Brainstorm, Thirst, Fact or any blue creature.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Not sure why "Anowon Ruin Sage" is in there. Isn't abyss just better in decks that want to clear the board of creatures? Only way I can see this being better is against Shop and it seems hard to get to 5 mana to cast him. Sure, he is a win condition by himself, but decks that would run abyss in the first place usually don't rely on creatures to win. Also a lot more fragile than abyss and starts one attack step later.

Thrashing Wumpus sometimes saw play in TPS sideboards as a huge butt (3/3 was once huge vs vintage critters) that could wipe the board on a whim.  This is categorically similar and also protects against Tinkered creatures.

[serracollector]

Terastodon doesn't have a viable spot in Oath?  Tokens are easy to get rid of and destroying 2 lands and a mox turn 2 is tech for Oath, it comes out with it's own protection.  Late game, you can just sac 3 of your own perms and swing ftw?  I know Iona, and Hasty Dragons are faster, but this could become a more "control" oath version instead of aggro.  Just thinking out loud.  The artifact stealing merfolk with Island walk is....sick....broken....aweso me?

[Stormanimagus]

I know this doesn't concern Vintage but I think Treasure Hunt will have a really nice home in Legacy 38 Land.dec as a sick draw engine.

[Purple Hat]

I know this doesn't concern Vintage but I think Treasure Hunt will have a really nice home in Legacy 38 Land.dec as a sick draw engine.

basically...but wouldn't it be cool if with all these weird land effects and land fall things there was some viable 40ish land deck?

[Nehptis]

I agree with most except these considerations:

Explore - Could this fit into Vintage Elves!....?

Terastodon - Don't overlook the ability of a deck cheating or accelerating this out and targeting its own perms to have a 18 attack on the board very quickly.  BTW, I don't think Oath is the deck for this.

[ShawnTheDoctor]

About Ricochet Trap, it seems worse then REB to me. While Ricochet Trap does some cool things against Ancestral, it can't stop Tinker, Tezz, Gifts, Thirst, etc. Can someone give an argument for running Ricochet Trap over REB?

[Tha Gunslinga]

Thrashing Wumpus was Tommy Kolowith tech, and it has a number of advantages over this guy.  It wipes out Dark Confidants and Empty the Warrens tokens immediately, and can clock for 7 a turn if you have the mana.  This thing looks pretty bad.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Both (eventually) kill Confi.  This guy keeps Tinker creatures and Iona off the board.  Wumpus will never kill Iona or DSC, Anowon will never kill Tarmogoyf or infi gob tokens.

[Ten-Ten]

Good list, would you consider adding Mire's Toll to the Definate playable.
 I can't wait to mix these in with duress and thoughtsieze in my TPS list or in my BOB-control.dec and Suiblack.dec
I know it may not be the best discard available but it is another option for those who dislike "shocking" themselves with thoughtsieze, IMHO.
 any thoughts?...
 

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

Good list, would you consider adding Mire's Toll to the Definate playable.
 I can't wait to mix these in with duress and thoughtsieze in my TPS list or in my BOB-control.dec and Suiblack.dec
I know it may not be the best discard available but it is another option for those who dislike "shocking" themselves with thoughtsieze, IMHO.
 any thoughts?...
 

Mire's Toll seems like a terrible Blackmail and Blackmail is never run.

[vroman]

Mire Toll fails because the ideal time to cast discard is turn 1, when you will have only 1 Swamp, thus letting them choose, which is the opposite of why Duress/Thoughtseize are good.

Have you ever had your Recall Misdirected? Its completely demoralizing. Battling over Recall is a critical part of the blue mirror, and the existence of an effective 1c 1for1 hard-misdirect effect, I think will make these battles all the more skill intensive. So yes I think Ricochet Trap is better than REB.

Triple-creeping mold guy as Oath target is not the worst if Iona and Tidespout, Sundering Titan didnt exist, but if you want board control out of your oath, rather than fastest possible clock, there are better creatures.
However, if you were to run him, Id imagine playing two. First one takes out most their mana, second one hits your own Oath and extra mana to win the race. I will upgrade Terastodons ranking, but I still think its strictly worse than other oath options.

Im completely unconvinced of Treasure Hunt being breakable.

Explore is worse than an Elf in Elves.

Anowon Ruin Sage is better than Abyss for this effect in Storm, because if you use up most your hand to drop something that controls creatures, you will be substantially less likely to have the gas left over to then combo out. Anowon solves this problem by being a wincon unto itself. Wumpus went out of favor because Tgoyf got printed. Im not saying Storm definitely should play this guy, but if he lands its bad news for fish, who most likely will not have access to any creature removal at this stage in the match. If I were building like ANT, Id probably rather play Deathmark, but your mileage may vary.

[Cyberpunker]

I think Dispel is under the "Not Unlikely" playable section if not the Definitely playable section. Richochet Trap is great against Ancestral but other than that I think REB is better on most occasions. The ability to kill Fish and Tezzeret and Tinker is useful more often than the ability to misdirect.

Treasure Hunt is a card I am going to test...

[Wagner]

The ability to kill Fish and Tezzeret and Tinker is useful more often than the ability to misdirect.

This. Baring they do the same things in counter wars, sure getting the opponent's recall will win you a game here and there, but how much more likely is it that you will want to counter one of the other 5-6 restricted blue spells instead outside of counter wars?

[BruiZar]

THere is already Divert instead so there is no reason to play Ricochet Trap in anything with blue. This means you will only have a use for it in mono R builds, which already have REBS/Pyroblasts. Therefore, it will not see play. Also, mana drain on ricochet trap is the lols.

Maybe, just maybe  Mire's Toll could have some weird application in a workshopconfidant deck with urborgs.

Less likely to ever see play yet still powerful cards:
Eye of Ugin
Dpends on the Eldrazi spells to support him. If those become good, which I doubt, it will be a great addition to workshop decks. Citanul Flute has seen play has seen play in the past so this could as well.

Quest for Ula's Temple
Only 1 mana, and it can cheat inkwell leviathan into play. Other tech kraken/octopus/leviathans include: Grozoth, Kederekt Leviathan, Simic SKy Swallower, Wrexial, and.. sea serpent :p Maybe in some legacy landstill deck with sensei's divining top. It can replace vial to dodge artifact hate and null rod and have bigger creatures than normal standstill lists

Dragonmaster Outcast
This guy will have a place in limited/extended as an alternate win in decks with scapeshift. This will be expensive because right now, countering scapeshift means the deck folds. With this guy the threat density is better.

[Darkenslight]

Richochet Trap is great against Ancestral but other than that I think REB is better on most occasions. The ability to kill Fish and Tezzeret and Tinker is useful more often than the ability to misdirect.

Are you shitting me?  Ricoshet trap will be an almost auto-include for Red decks.  It wins counter-wars, especially those with FoW involved.  Misdirect your Force to my Trap?  Sure! Soy ou just chucked your BS to counter my Oath?  Card disadvantage is tech. 

Yes, it's not quite REB, but it's still a tool in Red's arsenal to annoy those silly counterspell-thingies.  Silly Blue Mages.

[Wagner]

Richochet Trap is great against Ancestral but other than that I think REB is better on most occasions. The ability to kill Fish and Tezzeret and Tinker is useful more often than the ability to misdirect.

Are you shitting me?  Ricoshet trap will be an almost auto-include for Red decks.  It wins counter-wars, especially those with FoW involved.  Misdirect your Force to my Trap?  Sure! Soy ou just chucked your BS to counter my Oath?  Card disadvantage is tech. 

Yes, it's not quite REB, but it's still a tool in Red's arsenal to annoy those silly counterspell-thingies.  Silly Blue Mages.

I still don't see an argument for this. We already stated that in counter wars, it's the same as REB.

You even said that it's not quite REB. With REB and Pyroblast, do we really need that many cards to hate blue?

In red decks, I'm way more scared of a resolved Tinker or Timetwister than a resolved Ancestral.

[serracollector]

Marshal's Anthem
   2ww
Enchantment    Rare
Multikicker 1{W} (You may pay an additional 1{W} any number of times as you cast this spell.)
Creatures you control get +1+1.
When Marshal's Anthem enters the battlefield, return up to X target creature cards from your graveyard to the battlefield, where X is equal to the number of times Marshal's Anthem was kicked.

A possibility for g/w beats?  Bring back all your sac'd pridemages, or kegged hierarchs, and buffs your guys? heck throw in some bazaar's and Iona's, and make a white/green reanimator......ahem.

also:

Terra Eternal
   2w
Enchantment    Rare
All lands are indestructible.
#22/145

Puts a hurt on 5-color stacks or crucible.dec, may also be considered in a bringing back of landstill??  Indestructible mishra's are nice I hear.  Not to mention that blue enchantment that makes your land a 2/2 flyer.  I could see this card helping landstill become viable again.

[Yare]

Marshal's Anthem would cost six to get one guy and get the buff. There are just better choices at 6 mana.

Terra Eternal is only slightly better than Sacred Ground in terms of its effect; I don't think this card is suddenly going to boost landstill that much. It also shuts off your own Wastelands/Strip Mine if you run those cards.

[Killane]

Marshal's Anthem would cost six to get one guy and get the buff. There are just better choices at 6 mana.

Terra Eternal is only slightly better than Sacred Ground in terms of its effect; I don't think this card is suddenly going to boost landstill that much. It also shuts off your own Wastelands/Strip Mine if you run those cards.

Actually, Sacred grounds seems better all around. It's cheeper and doesn't give your opponent the effect. As you mentioned, it makes your own strip/waste effects useless and if they run any manlands now you have a much harder time killing them.

Terra Eternal? not for Eternal 

[Yare]

Marshal's Anthem would cost six to get one guy and get the buff. There are just better choices at 6 mana.

Terra Eternal is only slightly better than Sacred Ground in terms of its effect; I don't think this card is suddenly going to boost landstill that much. It also shuts off your own Wastelands/Strip Mine if you run those cards.

Actually, Sacred grounds seems better all around. It's cheeper and doesn't give your opponent the effect. As you mentioned, it makes your own strip/waste effects useless and if they run any manlands now you have a much harder time killing them.

Terra Eternal? not for Eternal 

Well, I was thinking that if you have manlands, then they won't get killed if they block or get blocked, which might be good against decks with a lot of smaller dudes and wastelands (like Fish). Otherwise, yeah, Sacred Ground is better.

[Beralt]

I am thinking that Explore might find a home in a Green version of Dredge running Bloodghasts with Crop Rotation to find Bazaars (over Serum Powder).  Course I could be completely wrong as there aren't very many versions that run Crop Rotation.

http://www.deckcheck.net/deck.php?id=28059

Did some research and this is pre-Bloodghast,1st place 23 man tournament.  I think Bloodghast, Crop Rotation, Bazaar and Expore (possibly Fastbond too) might have some synergy.

[Wagner]

I am thinking that Explore might find a home in a Green version of Dredge running Bloodghasts with Crop Rotation to find Bazaars (over Serum Powder).  Course I could be completely wrong as there aren't very many versions that run Crop Rotation.

http://www.deckcheck.net/deck.php?id=28059

Did some research and this is pre-Bloodghast,1st place 23 man tournament.  I think Bloodghast, Crop Rotation, Bazaar and Expore (possibly Fastbond too) might have some synergy.

Not sure why would Explore be good there. The deck runs 13 lands, it can't cast Explore before turn 2, at which point that means there is still no Bazaar in play, then it can put a third land into play, I'm pretty sure 3 lands out of 13 is pretty sure to get on turn 2, especially when only 9 of those give mana. As for Fastbond, I'm even more puzzled why it would be good in a deck with almost no lands and almost no mana requirements.

[Lemnear]

the only ichorid/dredge card in this set is nature's claim, which finally combines their artefact and enchantment-removal to one pretty easy castable card

[Beralt]

I think that Nature's Claim will see play in some Ichorid/Dredge Sideboards. 

But back to Explore, I don't think it's currently usable but the engine of sacrificial recurring Bloodghasts, on multiple lands played in a turn might be abused in the future. I don't think I have the deck skill to build something like this, nor do the necessary cards exist - yet - but in the future it may yet find a home.  I think and hope that Green may continue to see unexpected mana acceleration and Expore does include the magic words - Draw a Card. I feel similar in respect to the Engine card Treasure Hunt.  Grindstone for example is a classic card that has intense power, but it wasn't realized until Painter's Servant came along (more examples include Protean Hulk, Flame-Kin Zealot).  The deck I posted was only an example of a deck Dredge deck that hadn't started using Bloodghasts yet, contained green and could benefit from the effect of playing multiple lands a turn.  It would further love the draw a card phase, as this could be turned into another dredge - the fallacy at this point lies in the low # of actual lands that current dredge builds run - maybe someone will blow us all out of the water.  I guess it's the way I felt when I first saw Ichorid, a vintage deck that cast no spells and could win on turn 3.  Since then it's gotten unbelievably faster, but the hate has grown with it - so the archetype may end up having to mutate in the near future.

Apolgies in advance for the ramblings - it's all just speculation.

[vroman]

This happens every time I post a new set review. A bunch of people who apparently have only passing familiarity with vintage start suggesting completely terrible cards.

As for Ricochet Trap, in what percentage of games vs blue does your opponent tutor for and cast Recall? 95%? In what percentage of games vs blue does your opponent tutor for and cast Tinker? 60%? Being able to severely punish the Recall line of play trumps losing the ability to counter Tinker. Thats my analysis anyway. I don't play either REB nor Misdirect, so it may be a subtle distinction, but Im confident Ricochet Trap is a viable among the oddball tier of counterspells.