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Smmenen
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« on: February 21, 2010, 11:56:40 pm » |
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http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/18830_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Vintage_Market_Report.htmlEditor's Blurb: Monday, February 22nd - In today’s enlightening edition of So Many Insane Plays, Stephen Menendian breaks down the market forces in play on the current top strategies in Vintage. He also investigates the state of the current metagame, with reference to a myriad of tournaments held around the world…
ARTICLE IS NOW FREE.
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« Last Edit: March 25, 2010, 06:38:49 pm by Smmenen »
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CorwinB
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2010, 02:26:15 am » |
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Another great article, Stephen, I hope this one also benefits from your current popularity on SCG, as it goes to show that Vintage is a very healthy format right now. When looking at the article's title, I thought this was another article on the Reserved List / price of Vintage staples, especially considering that you were part of the trip to Wizards mentioned in Ben Bleiweiss' latest article. Too bad that both your and Matt's articles are again both on Monday, though, I prefer my Vintage fix to be spread over the week.  |
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Zieby
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2010, 09:43:45 am » |
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My compliments about the way how you formulated this article, It really makes it allot more accessible for non-Vintage players to understand the diversity of the Vintage metagame.
Regarding your reference to Legacy:
I played in a Legacy tournament last weekend, and to my surprise this format is faster then Vintage (I was playing DD-ANT). The big difference is that in Vintage you need to interact from the start. This has its reflection on how Vintage players build their deck. You need to interact from turn 1 with your opponent by using a form of control (For example: counters, spheres, wastelands, discard, etc…). The other difference is the fact that Legacy players tend to accept an auto loss to one ore two match-ups. In Vintage we always try to find a deck that has a chance against all the decks in the current metagame (Sure we have our good and bad match-ups, but we try to solve that with our SB cards).
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"Rogue is spelled with the "g" before the "u." Rouge is a cosmetic used to color the cheeks and emphasize the cheekbones.
Rogue is a deck that isn't mainstream/widely played." Member of Team R&D: Go beyond Synergy and enter Poetry Founder of "The Dutch Vintage Tournament Series" |
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Killane
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2010, 10:38:37 am » |
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Nice article. As a Banker, I really appreciated the buy/sell/hold format that you picked.
Not sure I understood the Sell recommnedation on Dredge though. With the Sharrum/Fatestitcher build having a good 75% turn 2 kill and the flexability fo anti-hate cards like Nature's Claim, isn't it at least a Hold? Nature's Claim certainly does more to help the archetype than B-Bog does to hurt it (IMHO).
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voltron00x
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2010, 01:31:10 pm » |
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Dredge's % of the field is without a doubt at its highest in 12 months, at least in my metagame. Its penetration into the top 8 and as far as the semifinals / finals of tournaments has also been exceptional lately.
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“Win as if you were used to it, lose as if you enjoyed it for a change.”
Team East Coast Wins
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Smmenen
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2010, 01:54:56 pm » |
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That's exactly why I said "sell.' Dredge is a cyclical deck, so I can't encourage people to buy a stock that has reached its peak unless I have good reason to think there will be additional gains.  |
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« Last Edit: February 22, 2010, 02:07:00 pm by Smmenen »
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Killane
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2010, 04:18:28 pm » |
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That's exactly why I said "sell.' Dredge is a cyclical deck, so I can't encourage people to buy a stock that has reached its peak unless I have good reason to think there will be additional gains. my question is this: why do you think it has peaked and will drop, vs. plateauing out? It seems to me Dredge is now powerful enough to fight through hate and be a perennial contender- In ffact I just attended at 32 man event in Mississauga ON on Saturday and no less than 3 Dredge decsk made top 8, despite a metagame full of Leylines and other heavy sideboard hate (I myself lost to Sharrum Dredge despite packing a fulll set of Leylines, a Crypt, a Pithing Needle, and an Extirpate for the matchup - though he did have a pretty nutty draw and killed me with my own orchard tokens after resolving no less than 3 discard effects) If it has spiked and is going to drop, I agree on a Sell call, but if it has plateau'd- a Hold might be appropos - who knows what the archetype might gain from Rise of the Eldrazi or the Mirrodin block set to come up next - I doubt we'll see yet more GY hate given how much they ahve printed recently. |
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voltron00x
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2010, 04:51:44 pm » |
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I suspect the January / February chart will show further increases in Dredge, that's all I'm saying. Thus far, there doesn't seem to be much incentive to 'sell' on Dredge as Nature's Claim really juices up the deck. The critical point will probably be when Dredge players get sick of the mirror and have to reduce the deck's efficiency because they’re all including maindeck Leylines and will also need to include maindeck answers (be it Chain of Vapor, Nature’s Claim, or whatever – this is already happening to some extent). There will also probably always be a certain cap as a lot of people dislike the deck or refuse to play it, for a variety of reasons.
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“Win as if you were used to it, lose as if you enjoyed it for a change.”
Team East Coast Wins
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Smmenen
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2010, 07:24:33 pm » |
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I will probably be going to quarterly Market Reports. So the next one will likely be mid-April and it will be titled: The Vintage Market Report, Q1 2010 or something like that. I think the whole financial statement conceit is funny.
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Killane
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« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2010, 09:36:14 pm » |
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the financial statement conceit is not only funny, but a good medium for this sort of thing. I think it's innovative and I look forward to the next one.
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Grand Inquisitor
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« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2010, 12:32:38 pm » |
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A nitpick, there are only 95 T8 archetypes listed. A large pick, only one out of the twelve tournaments was in the U.S. I certainly don't want to start a turf fight. Europe has a more vibrant T1 scene recently and has been more innovative than the U.S. historically. However, a lot of T1 gets played in the states and having most of your findings originate elsewhere is inapplicable at best and misleading at worst. I know your sampling is dependent on tournament size, but a better balance must be struck IMO. the financial statement conceit is not only funny, but a good medium for this sort of thing 2nd'd. Although, I disagree with your positions somewhat: Tezzeret - Sell, there hasn't been as good a reason to pick up shops since Trinisphere. This combined with Oath, Fish and Dredge viability will be too much for the control suite. Seasoned pilots may still perform well, but this is an increasingly bad choice for novices to pick up. Fish - undecided, given the nuance of local metagames and the necessity that Fish capitalize on its synergies, it will entirely depend if the right configuration can be found by its pilots. This uncertainty alone may drop it some, but I do think the tools are there. Dredge - Hold, I think the hate factor is less and less true when it comes to this deck. Nature's Claim gives a lot of configuration flexibility to a deck that can capitalize better than almost any other archetype. WSAggro - agreed Oath - agreed Steel City Vault - who cares TPS - agreed, this is a nice call. I had considered the decline of ANT, but I didn't appreciate the opportunity for TPS to expose the hole probably left by Tez (and maybe Fish). ANT - agreed Stax - agreed with the caveat I maintain for Fish. Lodestone could be just as effective for Stax provided it finds the right support to win the workshop mirror *Keeper - buy, I didn't like this deck in the most recent metagame, but I think now may be it's chance to shine. It now has better tools to address its complex mana base and the deck has usually done well in diverse metas. |
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There is not a single argument in your post. Just statements that have no meaning. - Guli
It's pretty awesome that I did that - Smmenen
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Smmenen
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« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2010, 11:06:19 pm » |
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A nitpick, there are only 95 T8 archetypes listed.
A large pick, only one out of the twelve tournaments was in the U.S. I certainly don't want to start a turf fight. Europe has a more vibrant T1 scene recently and has been more innovative than the U.S. historically. However, a lot of T1 gets played in the states and having most of your findings originate elsewhere is inapplicable at best and misleading at worst.
I know your sampling is dependent on tournament size, but a better balance must be struck IMO.
It's a really good point. I think that this was anomalous. The general ratio is usually, IIRC, about 60% European Tournaments, 30% US tournaments, and 10% other. the financial statement conceit is not only funny, but a good medium for this sort of thing 2nd'd. Although, I disagree with your positions somewhat: Tezzeret - Sell, there hasn't been as good a reason to pick up shops since Trinisphere. This combined with Oath, Fish and Dredge viability will be too much for the control suite. Seasoned pilots may still perform well, but this is an increasingly bad choice for novices to pick up. Fish - undecided, given the nuance of local metagames and the necessity that Fish capitalize on its synergies, it will entirely depend if the right configuration can be found by its pilots. This uncertainty alone may drop it some, but I do think the tools are there. Dredge - Hold, I think the hate factor is less and less true when it comes to this deck. Nature's Claim gives a lot of configuration flexibility to a deck that can capitalize better than almost any other archetype. WSAggro - agreed Oath - agreed Steel City Vault - who cares TPS - agreed, this is a nice call. I had considered the decline of ANT, but I didn't appreciate the opportunity for TPS to expose the hole probably left by Tez (and maybe Fish). ANT - agreed Stax - agreed with the caveat I maintain for Fish. Lodestone could be just as effective for Stax provided it finds the right support to win the workshop mirror *Keeper - buy, I didn't like this deck in the most recent metagame, but I think now may be it's chance to shine. It now has better tools to address its complex mana base and the deck has usually done well in diverse metas. Interesting... |
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Smmenen
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2010, 06:38:28 pm » |
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This article is now FREE.
It's written in the style of a financial report. Ha!
Enjoy!
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Smmenen
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« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2010, 06:00:27 pm » |
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Nice article. As a Banker, I really appreciated the buy/sell/hold format that you picked.
Not sure I understood the Sell recommnedation on Dredge though. With the Sharrum/Fatestitcher build having a good 75% turn 2 kill and the flexability fo anti-hate cards like Nature's Claim, isn't it at least a Hold? Nature's Claim certainly does more to help the archetype than B-Bog does to hurt it (IMHO).
Incidentally, my next market report will go live on Monday, but it's interesting to note that my sell prediction on Dredge actually came true. @ GI: 9 of the 20 tournaments in the Q1 Market Report are from North American, you'll be pleased to know. |
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Sobolev
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« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2010, 09:06:54 pm » |
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This article is great, I like it a lot.
I find the style great, I find the information VERY informative and I can't wait until the next one goes live.
Thanks a lot for writing, I find you by far the most informative source.
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"But rather, my loss was due to the degeneracy of hot dogs."
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LotusHead
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« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2010, 01:26:44 am » |
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Interesting article. The funnest fact that I got from it was that a top Manilla player is now a top NorCal player!  |
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Cyberpunker
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I just gotta topdeck better than you ^_^.
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« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2010, 10:05:35 am » |
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If only I can figure out a way to always be one step ahead of everyone else.
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mistervader
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« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2010, 09:04:13 pm » |
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Interesting article. The funnest fact that I got from it was that a top Manilla player is now a top NorCal player! Funny anecdote about that... Cheng has been a constant force in the Philippine meta for years, but migrated about a couple of years ago to the US. He was *on vacation* in Manila during that tournament, won the tourney, then went right back to the US afterwards. We were joking that he just went to the Philippines to further drain us of cards in the market or something, since we normally get Vintage staples as prizes for tournaments.  |
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Smmenen
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2010, 08:03:01 pm » |
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