[Free Article] Zombie Apocalypse: A Victim's Diary

[voltron00x]

Saturday, July 3 - Alternate Universe Blue Bell.  The day DCI Reporter decided it would be hilarious to have me play against every Dredge player in the room. 

The dead have risen.  Who will survive?

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/19706_The_Long_Winding_Road_Zombie_Apocalypse_A_Victims_Diary.html

[Smmenen]

Matt,

I'm very much looking forward to playing in the Vintage champs this year, and meeting you finally.   I think the Vintage champs this year will be a smaller, but more dedicated crowd.

I already told my team that I expect a surge in Dredge because its relatively cheap, and it's potent.    Dredge has always shown up in large numbers in sanctioned events, and the Vintage champs is no exception.   But, I always run an inordinate amount of Dredge hate.   Running less than 8 dedicated anti-dredge cards is probably unwise.    

I don't know which event I'm more excited for, GP Columbus for the Vintage champs!  

[Prospero]

Another solid article Matt.  I'll be testing against the Dredge list.

[Twaun007]

Great article.

I actually felt like I was in the Mines of Moria.

[Marske]

Matt,

You are becoming my favorite writer in a hurry, I like how you always seem to manage to really get me invested in the story you're telling. Fact that I'm saying story is also unique as most just tell clear statistics or give graph's. Magic above all is a fantasy game, to see somebody write about it in that way (How nerdy it may be) is really enjoyable.

[Killane]

Matt,

You are becoming my favorite writer in a hurry, I like how you always seem to manage to really get me invested in the story you're telling. Fact that I'm saying story is also unique as most just tell clear statistics or give graph's. Magic above all is a fantasy game, to see somebody write about it in that way (How nerdy it may be) is really enjoyable.

Agreed 100%. I'm also itching to test that Dredge list. Wonder what your thoughts are on Sun Titan as a return target - seems like recurring Serenity would be a beating, plus get back bazaar, an Imp if you need to block and Deathtouch something like Iona , basic land to cast hate, you could even put in an Eternal Witness to regrowth stuff like Nature's Claim or Chain of Vapor plus put and extra body on the board to then sac and recurr over d over again. What d you think?

[Cyberpunker]

Wow a whole day of Dredge, that must have been great practice for you. Nice report too. What are your thoughts on Pithing Needle? I think that it is one of the weakest Dredge cards out there. I think you would be better to replace it with 1 more Rav trap or Planar Void. My reasoning is that Pithing stops Bazaar only half the time. They can potentially get 1 or even 2+ (if you draw into Needle) activations before you Pithing it. So my reasoning is that you might as well concede that they will Bazaar and just go for the graveyard. Plus it doesn't stop the Bridges, Dread Returns, Ichorids, Bloodghasts etc.

[voltron00x]

When Oath is a popular deck, and people run hate cards against it like Gargadon, High Market, Blasting Station, etc, you pretty much are obligated to run Needle when you play Oath yourself.  Needle has the benefit of being immune to Leyline of Sanctity.  I think it’s actually a very good card in decks that can protect it.

Sun Titan… doesn’t impress me.  It seems like a win-more card in most of the scenarios people have spun.  I think that the card is awesome to think about, but trying to put it into practice, you find that it isn’t really efficient in real-life situations and decks.  Most of what we want it to do, Sharuum did just as well, really.

[Killane]

When Oath is a popular deck, and people run hate cards against it like Gargadon, High Market, Blasting Station, etc, you pretty much are obligated to run Needle when you play Oath yourself.  Needle has the benefit of being immune to Leyline of Sanctity.  I think it’s actually a very good card in decks that can protect it.

Sun Titan… doesn’t impress me.  It seems like a win-more card in most of the scenarios people have spun.  I think that the card is awesome to think about, but trying to put it into practice, you find that it isn’t really efficient in real-life situations and decks.  Most of what we want it to do, Sharuum did just as well, really.

The only thing Sharrum ever did was pitch to Force and allow a win outside the attack phase. It could not get back bazaars, endlessly recurr Serenity, etc... and it took up a huge amount of space- you needed 3 sharrums, 4 fatestitchers, and at least 2 killer artifacts (altar of demenia, posessed portal). Sun Titan takes up maybe 3 slots (2 titans and maybe a witness), none of which are dead on their own. I'm not sure how Sharrum ever did the things Titan can do??

I'm not saying you're wrong that it's win-more - I don't have the experience to judge it like you do nor have I tested it enough to offer empirical evidence, but i don;t understand your reasoning?

[Womba]

When Oath is a popular deck, and people run hate cards against it like Gargadon, High Market, Blasting Station, etc, you pretty much are obligated to run Needle when you play Oath yourself.  Needle has the benefit of being immune to Leyline of Sanctity.  I think it’s actually a very good card in decks that can protect it.

Sun Titan… doesn’t impress me.  It seems like a win-more card in most of the scenarios people have spun.  I think that the card is awesome to think about, but trying to put it into practice, you find that it isn’t really efficient in real-life situations and decks.  Most of what we want it to do, Sharuum did just as well, really.

The only thing Sharrum ever did was pitch to Force and allow a win outside the attack phase. It could not get back bazaars, endlessly recurr Serenity, etc... and it took up a huge amount of space- you needed 3 sharrums, 4 fatestitchers, and at least 2 killer artifacts (altar of demenia, posessed portal). Sun Titan takes up maybe 3 slots (2 titans and maybe a witness), none of which are dead on their own. I'm not sure how Sharrum ever did the things Titan can do??

I'm not saying you're wrong that it's win-more - I don't have the experience to judge it like you do nor have I tested it enough to offer empirical evidence, but i don;t understand your reasoning?

I also must disagree with Matt here, Sun Titan seems pretty nuts to me, expect him to be lurking in your local Top 8s this summer.....

[scipio]

Sun Titan… doesn’t impress me.  It seems like a win-more card in most of the scenarios people have spun.  I think that the card is awesome to think about, but trying to put it into practice, you find that it isn’t really efficient in real-life situations and decks.  Most of what we want it to do, Sharuum did just as well, really.

I'm a skeptic right now as well.  I can't envision a scenario in which I'm able to dread return titan and need to grab serenity or bazaar.  That said, it doesn't take up nearly as much room as the sharuum combo, and putting in a singleton is probably worth a try.  I'm excited about Leyline of Sanctity as well  - it's a sideboard card that you want to play maindeck.  Do you think a straight swap for Leyline of the Void for the mirror is the right way to go?

[voltron00x]

I’ll try to explain my line of thinking in more detail.

Say I want to replace my Dread Return targets with Sun Titans.  Ok, fine.  Now I either a) need to make room for something worthy of Sun Titan's ability, or b) am OK with just returning Bazaar of Baghdad, in which case I already could have used Eternal Witness, like some used to in Legacy.  If I'm making room for additional things to play with Sun Titan, then we're in Sharuum territory.  Remember, that Sharuum deck was made to goldfish people.  It almost *always* won on turn 2 in first-game scenarios.  I don’t think you’re going to make a Sun Titan deck that wins faster than that regardless of how you build it.  I’m not saying Sun Titan and Sharuum do the same thing, literally; I’m saying that conceptually, they do the same thing – you make a consistent and fast deck for game one situations that is still vulnerable to being raced by combo decks.

More important, you have to ask yourself the following:

1 – am I going to leave in Sun Titan and Dread Returns for post-board games, where cards like Serenity are part of the conversation?  If I’m generally not going to do so, that line of thinking is a dead-end.

2 – am I comfortable gumming up my maindeck with cards that are equivalent to Alter of Dementia and Portal in the Sharuum deck?  Because that’s what Sun Titan is doing, it is creating interlocking combos / flexibility for you.  Is that where you want your deck to be at the moment?  Is that better in game 1 situations than Chalice of the Void, Petrified Field, and/or Leyline of Sanctity against the decks that can actually beat you before sideboarding?

3 – most importantly in my mind:  how often are you losing when you are flashing back Dread Return?  I think the only game I ever lost where I resolved Dread Return was a game one when Beaver played a turn-two Tezzeret for Time Vault and I was forced to race through my deck to find Ichorid to kill Tezz; ultimately I had to DR the Ichorid but still lost to his Vampiric Tutor for Key.  Regardless, the point is that it is extremely rare to Dread Return and lose.  You’re generally either winning immediately (FKZ) or locking out the opponent (Iona, Woodfall / Don, Hypnotist, Sharuum -> Portal) when you resolve Dread Return.  Not once have I played Dredge in the last year and thought, “Gee, I’d really up my win percentage if I only had better Dread Return targets!”  The targets we have are insane.  When you DR, you win.  The less slots you invest in doing so, the more likely you’ll successfully get to the point of resolving DR and winning using self-contained cards like Iona, FKZ, Terastodon, and Hypnotist.

The key is how do you win games where you *don’t* cast Dread Return, because you’ve sided it out, or got crushed by hate, or because your opponent killed you before you had a chance to get that far?  If you want to win with Dredge, put your energy there instead.  You’ll get way more return on your investment.

Also, Mark – I saw a Jace in a Dredge deck that made top 8.  Just because it is in a top 8 doesn’t mean that it is correct or optimal in any way.

[matt_sperling]

Perhaps Leyline of Sanctity won't stop any dredge hate this summer, it'll just make people play the non-targeted dredge hate in their sideboards?  Given this expected shift, why even play the Leyline in Dredge.  Given that shift, why not go ahead and play our targeted dredge hate!     of course there are a ton of these rock-paper-scissors dynamics in Magic ("Nobody comes to Yankee Stadium anymore, it's too crowded" - Yogi Berra), and usually the answer involves assuming many players will operate on level 1 (in this case, level 1 is "dont change my dredge hate" and for the dredge players its "play leyline of S to stop some hate"), and some players will be on level 2 ("I should play non targeted hate" and "who needs this leyline").  

Shutting down Oath isn't an effect dredge needs imho.  

Here's where I'm at.   If I play dredge, probably not bothering with Leyline of Sanctity.  If play non-dredge, not going near crypt/bog/trap, planning on LeylineV, Jailer, Relic.  There never has really been a good reason NOT to Leyline of the Void, but now there's extra reason TO.  Thoughts?

[Killane]

I’ll try to explain my line of thinking in more detail.

Say I want to replace my Dread Return targets with Sun Titans.  Ok, fine.  Now I either a) need to make room for something worthy of Sun Titan's ability, or b) am OK with just returning Bazaar of Baghdad, in which case I already could have used Eternal Witness, like some used to in Legacy.  If I'm making room for additional things to play with Sun Titan, then we're in Sharuum territory.  Remember, that Sharuum deck was made to goldfish people.  It almost *always* won on turn 2 in first-game scenarios.  I don’t think you’re going to make a Sun Titan deck that wins faster than that regardless of how you build it.  I’m not saying Sun Titan and Sharuum do the same thing, literally; I’m saying that conceptually, they do the same thing – you make a consistent and fast deck for game one situations that is still vulnerable to being raced by combo decks.

More important, you have to ask yourself the following:

1 – am I going to leave in Sun Titan and Dread Returns for post-board games, where cards like Serenity are part of the conversation?  If I’m generally not going to do so, that line of thinking is a dead-end.

2 – am I comfortable gumming up my maindeck with cards that are equivalent to Alter of Dementia and Planar Void in the Sharuum deck?  Because that’s what Sun Titan is doing, it is creating interlocking combos / flexibility for you.  Is that where you want your deck to be at the moment?  Is that better in game 1 situations than Chalice of the Void, Petrified Field, and/or Leyline of Sanctity against the decks that can actually beat you before sideboarding?

3 – most importantly in my mind:  how often are you losing when you are flashing back Dread Return?  I think the only game I ever lost where I resolved Dread Return was a game one when Beaver played a turn-two Tezzeret for Time Vault and I was forced to race through my deck to find Ichorid to kill Tezz; ultimately I had to DR the Ichorid but still lost to his Vampiric Tutor for Key.  Regardless, the point is that it is extremely rare to Dread Return and lose.  You’re generally either winning immediately (FKZ) or locking out the opponent (Iona, Woodfall / Don, Hypnotist, Sharuum -> Portal) when you resolve Dread Return.  Not once have I played Dredge in the last year and thought, “Gee, I’d really up my win percentage if I only had better Dread Return targets!”  The targets we have are insane.  When you DR, you win.  The less slots you invest in doing so, the more likely you’ll successfully get to the point of resolving DR and winning using self-contained cards like Iona, FKZ, Terastodon, and Hypnotist.

The key is how do you win games where you *don’t* cast Dread Return, because you’ve sided it out, or got crushed by hate, or because your opponent killed you before you had a chance to get that far?  If you want to win with Dredge, put your energy there instead.  You’ll get way more return on your investment.

Also, Mark – I saw a Jace in a Dredge deck that made top 8.  Just because it is in a top 8 doesn’t mean that it is correct or optimal in any way.

That arguement makes alot more sense to me now. Thanks.

I'm still going to test it since i think it provides resilliance that Sharrum doesn;t and takes up less slots, but I see your point and maybe it's not worth it.

[voltron00x]

My thoughts are that the ability to shut down Oath, Tendrils, Gifts, FoF, Tormod’s Crypt, and Ravenous Trap at essentially no drawback as compared to the other cards that would normally inhabit that slot increases the chance that you don’t lose game 1 to a Tendrils deck, and helps very much post-board against Oath as well as people that still have a mix of hate cards that target. 

In other words, there’s little reason to not play this Leyline for the time being, especially if you’re me, and the majority of the better non-Dredge players at your Vintage tournaments are playing TPS, Bob Tendrils, Drain Tendrils, and Oath of Druids. 

There’s not much reason to try to level up too quickly in Vintage.  The wheels on the Vintage bus alternate between having flat tires, and being on cinder blocks, in my experience.

You’re right though, over time this Leyline adds another wrinkle to the Dredge / anti-Dredge dynamic.

[Rico Suave]

Matt, good read.

What is this "Oath" deck you speak of.  I've never heard of it before but it looks pretty good.  Though I have to say if I were to play it I would definitely cut REB before testing it once.

On a more serious note, I can't help but think that the Dredge lists in our area are pretty much great as is.  The problematic cards have always been the "shut down" cards like Leyline, Void, and Jailer.  The one shot effects like Trap and Crypt can buy time, but that is all they can do.  I'm not sure Leyline of Sanctity solves any problems when facing hate.  It seems like the driving reason to play it would be stopping hate combined with another purpose. 

Now, as for the specific use of Leyline to combat Oath, I want to draw a comparison.

We don't see storm players boarding in Blue Elemental Blast to stop Lightning Bolt.  This is because the storm players are confident that their plan is better than the opponent's plan, and it is better to focus on winning than to waste slots/time stopping the opponent.  The storm player is only concerned about removing specific problems, like Teeg or Canonist, the problems that stop storm from executing its win condition. 

I feel that Dredge using Leyline of Sanctity to combat Oath is not having the confidence in one's own plan.  Oath needs to stop Dredge, but Dredge doesn't need to stop Oath.  If Dredge can execute its game plan it will beat Oath naturally, so the focus should be on removing obstacles stopping it from Dredging and then once those are gone it can go back to winning.  I feel using Leyline of Sanctity against Oath is a misunderstanding of the deck's role in the match, in my humble opinion. 

Leyline fits much better when fighting against storm, but that's because Dredge is the deck trying to stop storm.  Still, I don't think it will have that much of an impact because it doesn't stop any of the engines.  In contrast, Oath *is* the engine of that deck. 

[Delha]

If play non-dredge, not going near crypt/bog/trap, planning on LeylineV, Jailer, Relic.  There never has really been a good reason NOT to Leyline of the Void, but now there's extra reason TO.  Thoughts?

All of the hate cards that you suggest migrating to have associated mana costs. Jailer/Relic cost two apiece, which can be significant, and the drawback from running Leyline has been discussed to death. That said, I agree with Rico in that Leyline/Jailer are hard locks rather than just minor stumbling blocks. I'm curious to see how that dynamic works itself out.

[voltron00x]

If everyone is focused into permanent-based hate cards, it makes life easy.  Just sideboard in a bunch of removal / bounce spells and have at it.  The tough part of playing Dredge has been not knowing if your opponent is sandbagging Rav Trap in addition to the leyline that's in play, and having to sideboard cards to answer everything.

Re: Sanctity, the point isn't that I want to play it specifically for Oath.  The point of it is to be able to race combo decks game 1, which means your game 1 win % should be almost equal to the inverse of your mulligans to, say, 2 or less.  The fact that it has nice splash damage against other decks, including Oath, is gravy.

[matt_sperling]

If everyone is focused into permanent-based hate cards, it makes life easy.  Just sideboard in a bunch of removal / bounce spells and have at it.  The tough part of playing Dredge has been not knowing if your opponent is sandbagging Rav Trap in addition to the leyline that's in play, and having to sideboard cards to answer everything.

Re: Sanctity, the point isn't that I want to play it specifically for Oath.  The point of it is to be able to race combo decks game 1, which means your game 1 win % should be almost equal to the inverse of your mulligans to, say, 2 or less.  The fact that it has nice splash damage against other decks, including Oath, is gravy.

Sure, if you know what the other guy is doing, you can level him.  The thing is, just cuz I don't play Rav Trap doesn't mean you KNOW I don't play rav trap.  Hence I can get you to bring in or leave in Leyline of Sanctity when it doesnt do anything.  That's where I wanna be.  Dredge guy has to bring in a bunch of stuff, and I just need to stick leyline or jailer and protect it once or twice with spell pierce/FoW/drain.  Mixing in 1 Rav Trap 1 Tormod's could be fine, there is still value to diversification, but I wouldn't go any deeper on those targeted hate cards.

[voltron00x]

If everyone is focused into permanent-based hate cards, it makes life easy.  Just sideboard in a bunch of removal / bounce spells and have at it.  The tough part of playing Dredge has been not knowing if your opponent is sandbagging Rav Trap in addition to the leyline that's in play, and having to sideboard cards to answer everything.

Re: Sanctity, the point isn't that I want to play it specifically for Oath.  The point of it is to be able to race combo decks game 1, which means your game 1 win % should be almost equal to the inverse of your mulligans to, say, 2 or less.  The fact that it has nice splash damage against other decks, including Oath, is gravy.

Sure, if you know what the other guy is doing, you can level him.  The thing is, just cuz I don't play Rav Trap doesn't mean you KNOW I don't play rav trap.  Hence I can get you to bring in or leave in Leyline of Sanctity when it doesnt do anything.  That's where I wanna be.  Dredge guy has to bring in a bunch of stuff, and I just need to stick leyline or jailer and protect it once or twice with spell pierce/FoW/drain.  Mixing in 1 Rav Trap 1 Tormod's could be fine, there is still value to diversification, but I wouldn't go any deeper on those targeted hate cards.

Or, I'm just leaving Leyline in the main unless you're playing Workshops, in which case I know you're not on Ravenous Trap and I don't really fear Tormod's Crypt that much, or if you're playing Dredge I can hot-swap Leyline for Leyline. Against other decks, depending on what I see game 2, I can adjust game 3 (and usually do, as I'm often bringing Chalice back in).  My list already has Unmask and Chalice which disrupt and combat hate.  Leyline of Sanctity is part of a web of resistance to hate at a variety of levels.  That's what makes modern Dredge so scary.  Now I have 8 resistance points to Storm in game 1, plus maindeck Unmask and Cabal Therapy. 

[matt_sperling]

If everyone is focused into permanent-based hate cards, it makes life easy.  Just sideboard in a bunch of removal / bounce spells and have at it.  The tough part of playing Dredge has been not knowing if your opponent is sandbagging Rav Trap in addition to the leyline that's in play, and having to sideboard cards to answer everything.

Re: Sanctity, the point isn't that I want to play it specifically for Oath.  The point of it is to be able to race combo decks game 1, which means your game 1 win % should be almost equal to the inverse of your mulligans to, say, 2 or less.  The fact that it has nice splash damage against other decks, including Oath, is gravy.

Sure, if you know what the other guy is doing, you can level him.  The thing is, just cuz I don't play Rav Trap doesn't mean you KNOW I don't play rav trap.  Hence I can get you to bring in or leave in Leyline of Sanctity when it doesnt do anything.  That's where I wanna be.  Dredge guy has to bring in a bunch of stuff, and I just need to stick leyline or jailer and protect it once or twice with spell pierce/FoW/drain.  Mixing in 1 Rav Trap 1 Tormod's could be fine, there is still value to diversification, but I wouldn't go any deeper on those targeted hate cards.

Or, I'm just leaving Leyline in the main unless you're playing Workshops, in which case I know you're not on Ravenous Trap and I don't really fear Tormod's Crypt that much, or if you're playing Dredge I can hot-swap Leyline for Leyline. Against other decks, depending on what I see game 2, I can adjust game 3 (and usually do, as I'm often bringing Chalice back in).  My list already has Unmask and Chalice which disrupt and combat hate.  Leyline of Sanctity is part of a web of resistance to hate at a variety of levels.  That's what makes modern Dredge so scary.  Now I have 8 resistance points to Storm in game 1, plus maindeck Unmask and Cabal Therapy. 

I was responding to this:  "If everyone is focused into permanent-based hate cards, it makes life easy.  Just sideboard in a bunch of removal / bounce spells and have at it.  The tough part of playing Dredge has been not knowing if your opponent is sandbagging Rav Trap in addition to the leyline that's in play, and having to sideboard cards to answer everything." 

I'm just saying, life hasn't actually gotten easier based on your description.  I bring in a bunch of permanents, and you've got some mix of Chalice, Unmask, LeylineS, etc. that do nothing, based on a guess of what I boarded in.  In that context, I think Tezz players, for example, should just 4x Leyline 2x Jailer, 0-1 Rav Trap.  You can adjust for the third game, but you might not be able to put them off 4x Leyline 3x Rav Trap/T Crypt if they beat you with Leyline game 2.