[Free Article] Predictions for GenCon 2010

[Troy_Costisick]

Heya,

Predictions are alyways dicey.  It's hard to really know what will happen, especially when the worlds best players get together for the world's best format.  Anyway, I take a stab at it while everyone else is distracted with the goings-on in Columbus.  Enjoy!

http://mtgvintage.blogspot.com/2010/07/gencon-predictions.html

Article Synopsis:

MUD is best positioned, followed by Oath and Dredge.
Fish will be plentiful, but not very successful.
I suggest a rogue deck that has at least a shot of going .500

Peace,

-Troy

[Suicideking]

I didn't see a prediction for a winner. I think most of your analysis is correct, although I think we will see a revamped list of an established deck making waves. I also think tps might put atleast two people in top8 because good players will show up with it.

[MaximumCDawg]

Why the love for classic-style suiblack?  Any particular analysis on why that might be the rogue deck of choice?

[Troy_Costisick]

I didn't see a prediction for a winner. I think most of your analysis is correct, although I think we will see a revamped list of an established deck making waves. I also think tps might put atleast two people in top8 because good players will show up with it.

It's hard to pick a winner from my Top 4 group of MUD, MUD, Oath, and Dredge.  I doubt it would be Dredge, so it would be between Oath and MUD.  If the Oath deck got paired with the Dredge deck in the top 4, it would be MUD.  Otherwise, I think the final would be a toss-up between Oath and MUD.  Whoever won the dice roll there would have a major advantage.

Why the love for classic-style suiblack?  Any particular analysis on why that might be the rogue deck of choice?

Actually, my list is not even close to a classic suicide black list.  There are no Sinkholes, no Hymns, and no Nantuko Shades.  It uses 6 Duresses and 8 disruptive artifacts to control the board and then win with big beaters.  This deck doesn't try to win super fast like SuiBlacks of old.  It plays Chalice, Duress/Thougthseize, and Null Rod first, way before any creatures.  Only when the initial push by the opponent is over, do the Liches, Negators, and Demons come out.

Someone outside the forums said they were worried about the Negator's drawback.  I told him he could use Ashemoore Gouger if he wanted, but the Gouger isn't as good IMO.

Peace,

-Troy

[Smmenen]

I think you are really under-estimating Tezzeret.  

Most of the top players are now playing Tezzeret with X Nature's Claims maindeck.   Matt Sperling, Chris Pikula, Demonic Attorney, Grand Inquisitor, Soly, Paul Mastriano, etc.    These players are all playing the same basic idea:  1-3 Nature's Claims between the MD and SB as a way to straddle the Oath/MUD metagame, and Bobs. 

There are a ton of lists like this around, but they basically look like Olvier Solov's list from the Meandeck Open in June .   But they also look like Ryan Fisher's 3rd place list here .  Or Chris Pikula's 6th place list here .

[M.Solymossy]

Unfortunately, anyone can write their opinion on "tha intrawebz".  the site is blocked @ work, but I can tell you with 100% certainty that if you think Oath will perform better than a standard Tezzeret deck in that metagame, you are dense.  No disrespect meant.   

The chance of tezzeret doing poorly are about as low as the chance of ARod passing a Roid Test.  Just sayin'.

[Troy_Costisick]

I think you are really under-estimating Tezzeret.  

Most of the top players are now playing Tezzeret with X Nature's Claims maindeck.   Matt Sperling, Chris Pikula, Demonic Attorney, Grand Inquisitor, Soly, Paul Mastriano, etc.    These players are all playing the same basic idea:  1-3 Nature's Claims between the MD and SB as a way to straddle the Oath/MUD metagame, and Bobs. 

You may be right, perhaps I am.  I predict 1 or 2 to make the top 8, or up to 25% of the Top 8.  That's better than my predictions for Fish, TPS, and Oath.  Do you think it might be be more than 3?  I have a hard time believing 50% of the top 8 will be Tez.  Where I really might be wrong is Tez making it to the Top 4.  But really, all I said in my entry was that I don't see Tez winning.  I don't think that's going out on a limb.

No disrespect meant.   

None taken.  I considered the source of the remark.  I'm intrigued that you are so high on Tez.  In this thread (http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=40765.0), you told me MUD was obviously the best.

[M.Solymossy]

And i still wholeheartedly expect Mud to win, because it can most commonly have a broken turn 1 (that doesn't get hated on hardcore like Dredge).


I just hate playing decks where the only real decision you make is the mulligan.

[Smmenen]

And i still wholeheartedly expect Mud to win, because it can most commonly have a broken turn 1 (that doesn't get hated on hardcore like Dredge).

I just hate playing decks where the only real decision you make is the mulligan.

Except that you expect to win the tournament    


Serously, though.  I expect the top 8 to be 1-2 Dredge, 1-2 Workshop decks, 3 Drain Decks, and 1 Fish deck.   Of the Drain decks, I expect like 1-2 Tez, a Drain Tendrils, and/or an Oath.   

[M.Solymossy]

Except that you expect to win the tournament    

I do... see, when it comes to magic, it never lives up to my expectations... (of mud winning)

[honestabe]

I also think you are underestimating Tezz.  Around here, it's grown into several different sub-archytypes and many of them are really, really good.

[Troy_Costisick]

I also think you are underestimating Tezz.  Around here, it's grown into several different sub-archytypes and many of them are really, really good.

I'll be pleased as punch if I'm wrong because I see Tez as the qunitessential Vintage deck, and I'd love it to do well.  But Stephen is predicting the same number of them to make the Top 8 as I am.  We'll see what happens next week, but I'm confident.  I stand by my prediction, though, that Tez won't win.

[Delha]

I'll be pleased as punch if I'm wrong because I see Tez as the qunitessential Vintage deck

Tez is far from "concentrated" vintage.

Cute antagonistic post, here's one back at you. Since you didn't seem to notice, Troy said "I see Tez as the qunitessential Vintage deck". You may or may not agree with him, but he entitled to his opinion.

Your post in the "Define Vintage" thread pretty much focused entirely on the B/R List, and now you claim that said list is not Vintage? If Dredge is quintessential Vintage because it's fast and goldfishy, why isn't ANT even more so? Nothing says goldfish more than killing your opponent before they get to make their first land drop. As an added bonus, ANT's power derives heavily from going first, which lends itself to the "coinflip format" stereotype. Dredge is all about a busted cycle of cards, which form the engine of a deck. Is that what you think Vintage is? Combo existed long before Storm came about, Tendrils just gave it a better kill.

Also, what was the point of your worthless Merriam Webster quote? Troy's use of the word was perfectly valid. Maybe you needed to look up the word to understand his sentence, but that doesn't mean the rest of us needed to.

[voltron00x]

EDIT:  Sorry Troy, I didn't mean to derail the thread even further, crappy day today at work.  You have to admit, his statement is ridiculous.

Anyway, I enjoyed the article.  The Vintage meta is actually quite diverse and healthy at the moment.  Trygon Tezz, Noble Fish, Dredge, MUD, Drain Tendrils, TPS, and Oath are all top-tier decks, but you never know - I doubt anyone predicted so much G/W in the top 8 at least years Champs (although Menendian was close).

[voltron00x]

And i still wholeheartedly expect Mud to win, because it can most commonly have a broken turn 1 (that doesn't get hated on hardcore like Dredge).

I just hate playing decks where the only real decision you make is the mulligan.

Except that you expect to win the tournament    


Serously, though.  I expect the top 8 to be 1-2 Dredge, 1-2 Workshop decks, 3 Drain Decks, and 1 Fish deck.   Of the Drain decks, I expect like 1-2 Tez, a Drain Tendrils, and/or an Oath.   

This seems like an accurate prediction, but you never know... if MUD shows up with strong enough numbers, it could flood the top 8 as it has some other events.  I know I was surprised at the number of Workshop decks at Champs last year.

[Smmenen]

And i still wholeheartedly expect Mud to win, because it can most commonly have a broken turn 1 (that doesn't get hated on hardcore like Dredge).

I just hate playing decks where the only real decision you make is the mulligan.

Except that you expect to win the tournament    


Serously, though.  I expect the top 8 to be 1-2 Dredge, 1-2 Workshop decks, 3 Drain Decks, and 1 Fish deck.   Of the Drain decks, I expect like 1-2 Tez, a Drain Tendrils, and/or an Oath.   

This seems like an accurate prediction, but you never know... if MUD shows up with strong enough numbers, it could flood the top 8 as it has some other events.  I know I was surprised at the number of Workshop decks at Champs last year.

I doubt there will be enough good players on Workshops for that to happen, especially when the 'paragons' are all playing blue. 

[Troy_Costisick]

And i still wholeheartedly expect Mud to win, because it can most commonly have a broken turn 1 (that doesn't get hated on hardcore like Dredge).

I just hate playing decks where the only real decision you make is the mulligan.

Except that you expect to win the tournament    


Serously, though.  I expect the top 8 to be 1-2 Dredge, 1-2 Workshop decks, 3 Drain Decks, and 1 Fish deck.   Of the Drain decks, I expect like 1-2 Tez, a Drain Tendrils, and/or an Oath.   

This seems like an accurate prediction, but you never know... if MUD shows up with strong enough numbers, it could flood the top 8 as it has some other events.  I know I was surprised at the number of Workshop decks at Champs last year.

I doubt there will be enough good players on Workshops for that to happen, especially when the 'paragons' are all playing blue. 

I hadn't taken that into account.  Clearly, you have some intel that I don't.  We'll see, tho.  I don't recall hearing Hiromichi Itou's name before Vintage World's last year.  That may be because I don't pay much attention to the Asian tournaments, but he's not what I would call a 'paragon'.  So, that certainly leaves open the possibility that a very good player outside the usual suspects could take the crown.

[Smmenen]

I was using the term paragon somewhat sarcastically, and there will be a few decent shop players there, but with most of the top players on Tez, each running alot of anti-shop tech, I just don't see Shops having that great of a day.  

I do think Dredge will have a Great day, though.

[Troy_Costisick]

I was using the term paragon somewhat sarcastically, and there will be a few decent shop players there, but with most of the top players on Tez, each running alot of anti-shop tech, I just don't see Shops having that great of a day.  

I do think Dredge will have a Great day, though.

I think there's two important things that you say here.  1) Disenchant effects are super powerful now, even moreso than last year- and that's saying something.  2) Dredge, which has had to fight for years for legitimacy in this format, may have it's best year yet at Vintage World's.  I'm amazed and excited by both of those developments and the effect they'll have on the tournament next week.

[Smmenen]

I was using the term paragon somewhat sarcastically, and there will be a few decent shop players there, but with most of the top players on Tez, each running alot of anti-shop tech, I just don't see Shops having that great of a day.  

I do think Dredge will have a Great day, though.

I think there's two important things that you say here.  1) Disenchant effects are super powerful now, even moreso than last year- and that's saying something.  2) Dredge, which has had to fight for years for legitimacy in this format, may have it's best year yet at Vintage World's.  I'm amazed and excited by both of those developments and the effect they'll have on the tournament next week.

Disenchant effects have always been really good.   Early Vintage decks ran 4 Disenchants for a reason.   But you are right that the Workshop/Oath metagame only makes them better.   Add to that Null Rod Fish and TIme Vault decks, and they are just insane.

The key thing is that now you have Disenchant for 1 mana and a very minimal drawback, on top of the all of those facts.  We've never had a 1 mana disenchant before.   

[honestabe]

Whoever runs the most natures claims a dredge hate wins  =/

[MaximumCDawg]

Whoever runs the most natures claims a dredge hate wins  =/

The trick is running a deck that has a way to win by itself while you're also running 4x claim and 10x dredge hate!

Does nobody expect anything good out of Dark Times, perhaps the Bg versions?

[Demonic Attorney]

Guys, the forum description says "strictly moderated."  That means this board is for "serious discussions."  Posts derailing the thread into debates over irrelevant semantics, imagespam, and one-liners fall short of that standard.  I'm not going to give out warnings this time, but I expect everyone to try to have a substantive conversation about the topic going forward.

[M.Solymossy]

I present you the top8

1st:  Meandeck
2nd: Meandeck
3rd:  Meandeck
4th:  TK
5th:  Some randocommando who dodged Meandeck in the Swiss
6th:  Meandeck
7th:  Probasco
8th:  Some retard playing dredge who plays magic at the same IQ as my bottle of mountain dew, but knows how to flip on autopilot.


In all seriousness,  I expect the finals to be one of three decks:  Tezzeret, MUD, or Oath.


I expect 1 Dredge, 1 combo, 0 fish, 4 drain decks, 2 shop decks.

[Marske]

@Soly,
Sure, I guess we're just chopped liver...

1st:  Rich Shay
2nd: Menendian
3rd:  Demonic Attorney
4th:  TK
5th: Chris Pikula
6th: Probasco
7th: Zherbus
8th: ??

two can play that game.... anyway.. I'm looking forward to seeing champs, I do hope there's a video stream like last year...

My predictions is that Combo takes it down again (TPS but most likely a Drain Tendrils / Jace Storm / Bob tendrils build) with MUD, Tezz, Fish, Dredge making top 8, Oath is a dangerous outsider but not good enough to compete with storm decks without over committing hate against it losing % against the rest of the field.

[Demonic Attorney]

Last warning.  The next person to spam, flame, or derail gets a Full Warning and this thread gets locked.

[M.Solymossy]

DA; getting all red-text happy since 2007...

Warning for spam and demoted to Restricted Posting. You've received repeated warnings for the same thing, but this is it - any further spam, flames or other worthless posts will result in a ban.
-Godder

[Suicideking]

8th:  Some retard playing dredge who plays magic at the same IQ as my bottle of mountain dew, but knows how to flip on autopilot.

Thanks Soly for thinking I can Top8 this tourney.

[Godder]

Locked.