|
|
Diakonov
Full Members
Basic User
Posts: 758
Hey Now
|
 |
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2011, 08:50:31 pm » |
|
What are you using to obtain card prices?
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
VINTAGE CONSOLES VINTAGE MAGIC VINTAGE JACKETS Team Hadley  |
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2011, 06:39:52 am » |
|
Starcity's preorder prices.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Troy_Costisick
|
|
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2011, 06:53:35 am » |
|
Starcity's preorder prices.
If I wanted to use a reliable source for what card values from a set would be, SCG's preorder prices would be the absolute worst source to use. I can't think of anything less reliable than SCG's preorder prices. You'd be better off with casting chicken bones. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Dr. Sylvan
TMD Oracle and Uber-Melvin
Adepts
Basic User
Posts: 1973
|
|
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2011, 07:13:53 am » |
|
Cracking boxes for singles is almost never worth it for a non-dealer, because you both won't open enough to experience an even distribution of the set's print run and won't have an efficient way to profit from bulk cards. To almost any regular player who will be trading primarily with other players, and thus probably interacting through a binder, there are only probably a couple of dozen cards you'll be able to offload, and it would be for other cards, not cash.
On the other hand, if I had the cashflow to support it on top of my existing Magic spend rate, I'd be setting aside at least a box of each set for potential price appreciation and nostalgic drafting 5+ years in the future. Unopened boxes of sets that have at least some long-term playables do go up in price everywhere I've seen them listed; only sets like Saviors of Kamigawa go down. And boxes are a pretty efficient/fungible increment to sell off one way or another if you never end up participating in a draft using it.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2011, 10:38:47 am » |
|
Starcity's preorder prices.
If I wanted to use a reliable source for what card values from a set would be, SCG's preorder prices would be the absolute worst source to use. I can't think of anything less reliable than SCG's preorder prices. You'd be better off with casting chicken bones. Not when you're comparing buying a set vs buying boxes and building a set. NPH has an unfortunate number of cube and EDH playables, so my usual strategy of buying playsets of the 3-4 relevant cards in a set isn't useful. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Will
Veritas
Adepts
Basic User
Posts: 465
|
|
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2011, 12:25:19 pm » |
|
Starcity's preorder prices.
If I wanted to use a reliable source for what card values from a set would be, SCG's preorder prices would be the absolute worst source to use. I can't think of anything less reliable than SCG's preorder prices. You'd be better off with casting chicken bones. Not when you're comparing buying a set vs buying boxes and building a set. NPH has an unfortunate number of cube and EDH playables, so my usual strategy of buying playsets of the 3-4 relevant cards in a set isn't useful. He's saying that Starcity's prices for preorders are not accurate. Someone else said that the EV isn't always accurate because of variance but Troy is saying that Starcity overprices most cards on preorders and they drop shortly thereafter. If you have the option and the time, eBay is almost always the way to go rather than SCG. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
The artist formerly known as Wmagzoo7
"If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable" - Seneca
|
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2011, 12:31:46 pm » |
|
The price of a complete set on eBay is $170, compare to Starcity's $200. That $200 is basically the sum of the value of the cards valued over $3. Taking Starcity's margin out by multiplying the $166 by 17/20, you're still at $141 as the EV for the box. If you want a set, you're likely better off buying two boxes and trading rather than buying it outright. I'm assuming that you aren't waiting for prices to settle since the cards are already legal in EDH.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Troy_Costisick
|
|
« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2011, 01:14:09 pm » |
|
Starcity's preorder prices.
If I wanted to use a reliable source for what card values from a set would be, SCG's preorder prices would be the absolute worst source to use. I can't think of anything less reliable than SCG's preorder prices. You'd be better off with casting chicken bones. Not when you're comparing buying a set vs buying boxes and building a set. NPH has an unfortunate number of cube and EDH playables, so my usual strategy of buying playsets of the 3-4 relevant cards in a set isn't useful. He's saying that Starcity's prices for preorders are not accurate. Someone else said that the EV isn't always accurate because of variance but Troy is saying that Starcity overprices most cards on preorders and they drop shortly thereafter. If you have the option and the time, eBay is almost always the way to go rather than SCG. Bingo!  The price of a complete set on eBay is $170, compare to Starcity's $200. That $200 is basically the sum of the value of the cards valued over $3. Taking Starcity's margin out by multiplying the $166 by 17/20, you're still at $141 as the EV for the box. If you want a set, you're likely better off buying two boxes and trading rather than buying it outright. I'm assuming that you aren't waiting for prices to settle since the cards are already legal in EDH.
I'm totally confused now. Are you talking about buying a box or buying a complete set? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Meddling Mike
|
|
« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2011, 01:25:45 pm » |
|
Did you factor in the possibility of getting foil versions of these cards? I didn't see anything to that effect in your calculations. Like, probably unlikely to get a Foil Karn, but Gitaxian Probe is a common and the foil version is around $8 and Mental Misstep is an uncommon and the foil version is about $35.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Meddling Mike posts so loudly that nobody can get a post in edgewise.
Team TMD - If you feel that team secrecy is bad for Vintage put this in your signature
|
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2011, 01:35:13 pm » |
|
I'm totally confused now. Are you talking about buying a box or buying a complete set? Buying a box presupposes that you want the cards in it. We all know that opening boxes of Magic isn't profitable in the strictest sense or nobody would resell sealed product. The expected value of a box only comes into play when you want to acquire and hold most/all of a set. The question is then whether you should order a set or order enough boxes to be statistically likely to be able to trade into a set. Did you factor in the possibility of getting foil versions of these cards? I didn't see anything to that effect in your calculations. Like, probably unlikely to get a Foil Karn, but Gitaxian Probe is a common and the foil version is around $8 and Mental Misstep is an uncommon and the foil version is about $35.
No, I did not. The likelihood of getting a high value foil isn't well-modeled by a mean. I opened a case of Mirrodin with a buddy once and got zero high value foils. You just take them as a bonus when/if you get them. Besides, they're pretty hard to move if you're not a dealer. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Diakonov
Full Members
Basic User
Posts: 758
Hey Now
|
|
« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2011, 09:31:53 pm » |
|
I still don't understand why anybody would use any price guide other than apathyhouse.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
VINTAGE CONSOLES VINTAGE MAGIC VINTAGE JACKETS Team Hadley |
|
|
|
BruiZar
|
|
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2011, 03:31:40 am » |
|
I still don't understand why anybody would use any price guide other than apathyhouse.
Because it's inaccurate as hell |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Diakonov
Full Members
Basic User
Posts: 758
Hey Now
|
|
« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2011, 11:17:38 am » |
|
I still don't understand why anybody would use any price guide other than apathyhouse.
Because it's inaccurate as hell It's a price aggregator. This is inherently not true. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
VINTAGE CONSOLES VINTAGE MAGIC VINTAGE JACKETS Team Hadley |
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2011, 04:09:41 pm » |
|
I still don't understand why anybody would use any price guide other than apathyhouse.
Because it's inaccurate as hell It's a price aggregator. This is inherently not true. Aggregators and eBay both introduce a traveling salesman type problem whereby acquiring these cards at "low" prices suddenly requires keeping track of the shipping costs necessary to chase reasonable prices among multiple vendors. It's more reasonable to just purchase an entire set from a single vendor or buy boxes if indeed you want a complete set. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Will
Veritas
Adepts
Basic User
Posts: 465
|
|
« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2011, 12:31:36 am » |
|
If you are planning on collecting a set why don't you just buy it after it rotates out of Standard? Sure you have to wait but you save so much money (I would imagine) unless you use most of it for Type2/need it for specific decks.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
The artist formerly known as Wmagzoo7
"If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable" - Seneca
|
|
|
|
Troy_Costisick
|
|
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2011, 04:55:47 am » |
|
Why not buy a complete set online then turn it in through redepmtion? It's often cheaper.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2011, 09:26:10 am » |
|
If you are planning on collecting a set why don't you just buy it after it rotates out of Standard? Sure you have to wait but you save so much money (I would imagine) unless you use most of it for Type2/need it for specific decks. I'm assuming that you aren't waiting for prices to settle since the cards are already legal in EDH. Why not buy a complete set online then turn it in through redepmtion? It's often cheaper.
Again, EDH legality. Online release is after the real release, and it takes time to receive the cards by mail. Again, the question posed is: if you want almost all of the cards in the set immediately and want to know the cheapest way to acquire them, should you buy boxes or a set? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Troy_Costisick
|
|
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2011, 11:05:16 am » |
|
Well, if it's immediately, then there's no question. Show up at a launch party and buy two or three boxes. You'll have it by two o'clock at the latest.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
mikekilljoy
|
|
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2011, 12:01:11 pm » |
|
Honestly, I tend to go by Non-Math formulas here, because every box is different and so are the perceived values of cards. Not to mention, always eveyr card will drop it's value in half after 2 weeks.
also, I never heard about anyone opened a bad box of Mirroding Beseiged. I have rarely heard of a good box being opened yet for New Phyrexia.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Cruel Ultimatum
|
|
« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2011, 01:20:50 am » |
|
A singles inside of a box cannot really be worth more then the product itself, if that was true that stores wouldn't sell packs, they would just open them and sell the singles.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Egan
ECW
|
|
|
Delha
Full Members
Basic User
Posts: 1271
|
|
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2011, 11:51:14 am » |
|
A singles inside of a box cannot really be worth more then the product itself, if that was true that stores wouldn't sell packs, they would just open them and sell the singles. In fairness, you need packs for your FNM drafts, assuming you run those. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
I suppose it's mostly the thought that this format is just one big Mistake; and not even a very sophisticated one at that.
Much like humanity itself. |
|
|
AmbivalentDuck
Tournament Organizers
Basic User
Posts: 2807
Exile Ancestral and turn Tiago sideways.
|
|
« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2011, 03:40:42 pm » |
|
A singles inside of a box cannot really be worth more then the product itself, if that was true that stores wouldn't sell packs, they would just open them and sell the singles. And they do open some to sell for singles. Remember, the question is pre-ordering boxes vs pre-ordering sets. With the price of a pre-ordered set known, you can calculate the utility value of a box. Anyways, I ended up with every relevant mythic (including *two* Swords) and three Surgical Extractions in my two boxes. I calculated the outcome as $225 worth of preordered cards for $180 which slightly beats $180 for $180. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
