[Free Article/Podcast] SMIP #5: Vintage Championship Preview/ 5 Scenarios

[Smmenen]

http://mtgcast.com/?p=19726

Our next podcast! 

This would be a great podcast to listen to on the car ride to Gencon

We provide a 40 minute preview of the Vintage Champs metagame, drawing from my Q2 Vintage Metagame Report on E-C, with an emphasis on American tournament results.

Then, we spend an hour deconstructing 5 interesting Vintage Plays.   Follow along and let us know what you think! And, as always we do listener feedback, and pose a question of the week!

[LSD25]

would rather the legacy talk be omitted from smip casts.  no offense, just not a fan of legacy.  huge fan of the cast though.

[Smmenen]

would rather the legacy talk be omitted from smip casts.  no offense, just not a fan of legacy.  huge fan of the cast though.

thanks -- don't worry, legacy won't be a big part of future casts, but we may refer to it at times.   we had alot of requests to mention legacy, so we though we'd throw it a bone :p

[Troy_Costisick]

Great!  Can't wait to give this a listen, Steve

[DubDub]

Shot in the dark: Oath will win Champs.

[voltron00x]

Shot in the dark: Oath will win Champs.

No way, Dredge!   

[ReubenG]

I really liked the game scenarios, I paused the pod cast after you laid out the scenario to write down what I would do and then compared my answer to your analysis. 

Scenario 1: I would play Shop, Revoker (naming Mox Ruby), Mox Jet, Sphere of Resistance.  I felt that more than likely you would be facing down countermagic and getting a 1st turn lodestone countered would be hard to recover from with that hand, and rather bait out a counter with Revoker into Sphere, as losing either one is not as detrimental as losing Lodestone.  I also felt Shop into Wire if countered would allow another land drop by the opponent to get further past your sphere effects.

Scenario 2: I really wanted to know what my hand was in this case.  If I had a Lodestone or another Sphere to follow up next turn, then I think you are right that naming Sol Ring is correct.  Without a threat or another sphere in hand, the opponent will be out from under the wire soon.  Even a drawn wasteland will do no good against 3 Island reducing the number of effective follow-up plays.  Without knowing what I had in hand, I also came to conclusion that Sol Ring was correct as I would draw into mana denial much easier than a finding a clock to race the soon to come Jace if I didn’t name Sol Ring.  I would probably name Time Vault with a Lodestone or Panther in hand.

Scenario 3: Revoker naming Sol Ring is much easier call with 2 spheres in play and only 1 land. 

Scenario 4: I would let the Panther through and keep Confidant as well to try and make land drops.  I will say you said you had a Mox Emerald in play, so Nature’s Claim is a valid play, and I would consider it, since Panther negates the Jace in my hand.

Scenario 5: I agreed Workshop, Lotus, 2 Revoker, Sphere, except I named Sol Ring and Mana Crypt with the Revokers.  I agree Lodestone is the threat to worry about, but Crypt, Lotus, and Vault along with a Shop will give them a turn 1 Lodestone, so I chose to name the longer lasting effects, to keep ahead in the mana denial, since Metamorph can trade with a Lodestone I rather try to keep the longer lasting fast mana negated.

Unanswered scenario: I would let Crucible resolve.  I have a basic island in play, and they already have a creature. I should be able to find Oath before they find Strip Mine.

Question of the Week:  I really like the Demar's control lists, but I think Espresso Stax will win Vintage Champs.

Suggestion:  It would be really helpful to post the deck lists and scenarios to refer to when listening to the pod cast.  Also include what is in hand when laying out the scenarios as that really defines some of the choices.

[serracollector]

I really enjoyed this pod cast.  All the scenerios I agreed with except the hand of workshop, lotus, 3 revoker, sphere, metamorph.

Against the Mirror, I wouldn't worry about lodestone or panther from opponent turn 1, as you have Metamorph.  the only worry I would have is Precursor Golem, as they can make 3 blockers for your 3 revokers.  Alas, dropping 3 revokers naming (IMO), Mana Crypt, Sol Ring, Mana Vault, would keep them from getting a first turn Precursor, sans Lotus, or 2 moxen (plus workshop ofc).  At this point, as steve said, you now have an extra two damage on the clock.  So even if they did cast a first turn Lodestone, then your turn 2 you draw (what you draw does matter, but since we don't know what it is), we would assume, Metamorph thier Lodestone, swing with all 3 revokers, they block one, then next turn swing with 2 revokers, and Lodestone, at this point they have to block Lodestone, or they are looking at have 9 life left, facing a lodestone and 1 revoker at the minimum, not counting you drawing 1) Panther 2) Metamorph 3) Lodestone of your own, not to mention Tanglewire or Wasteland.  Also not to mention if they used Ancient tomb to power out whatever they cast.  I truly beleive in the Mirror, or Catstax, that the 3 revokers turn 1 is the optimal play.  Sphere almost does nothing at that point, even naming 2 of the 3 main mana makers.  This is just my insight tho.

Can't wait for the next one, keep them up guys!

[ReubenG]

Against the Mirror, I wouldn't worry about lodestone or panther from opponent turn 1, as you have Metamorph.  the only worry I would have is Precursor Golem, as they can make 3 blockers for your 3 revokers.  Alas, dropping 3 revokers naming (IMO), Mana Crypt, Sol Ring, Mana Vault, would keep them from getting a first turn Precursor, sans Lotus, or 2 moxen (plus workshop ofc).  At this point, as steve said, you now have an extra two damage on the clock.  So even if they did cast a first turn Lodestone, then your turn 2 you draw (what you draw does matter, but since we don't know what it is), we would assume, Metamorph thier Lodestone, swing with all 3 revokers, they block one, then next turn swing with 2 revokers, and Lodestone, at this point they have to block Lodestone, or they are looking at have 9 life left, facing a lodestone and 1 revoker at the minimum, not counting you drawing 1) Panther 2) Metamorph 3) Lodestone of your own, not to mention Tanglewire or Wasteland.  Also not to mention if they used Ancient tomb to power out whatever they cast.  I truly beleive in the Mirror, or Catstax, that the 3 revokers turn 1 is the optimal play.  Sphere almost does nothing at that point, even naming 2 of the 3 main mana makers.  This is just my insight tho.

I honestly forgot about Precursor, I just started testing the Cat lists and was using the list in Steve’s Slash Panther thread without Precursor. I want to understand the matchup better so with that said, is the 3rd Revoker really shutting Precursor off more than sphere?

With 3rd Revoker your opponent needs Shop plus Lotus or 2 Mox, with Sphere your opponent needs Shop plus Lotus, Vault or 3 Mox.  What Sphere does do is make Lodestone and Panther harder to cast (Shop plus Lotus, Vault or 2 Mox) as well as all other plays.  Yes the 3rd Revoker will get you another blocker to slow down Precursor beats a turn, but I don’t know that it prevents the Precursor play any more than Sphere. 

Mana is my other concern with this hand, and I feel with the Shop in play and a Sphere I am ahead in the mana and making it more difficult for the opponent to lock me down with another Sphere or wasting my Shop.  I also would be looking to use the 3rd Revoker next turn to keep any artifact mana locked that my opponent plays if they can’t stick a threat due to my Sphere.

[Odd mutation]

Very cool! Keep it up!

Robrecht

[Troy_Costisick]

Heya,

I actually liked the bit where you talked about Legacy.  I hope you guys talk about Commander and Modern from time to time as well.  In fact, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the impact Modern might have on Vintage when it gets made official.

Peace,

-Troy

[serracollector]

@ReubenG: Your forgetting you have the Metamorph to copy thier Precursor, ONLY if you didn't cast the sphere!  Then you have 6 critters to their 3, plus whatever you drew.  I still hold to it that 3 Revokers is the way to go.

[Commandant]

Steve,
Hiromichi is attending incase you were still wondering.

[Smmenen]

Steve,
Hiromichi is attending incase you were still wondering.

Did everyone listen to the Hiromichi quote at the end ? 

[MaximumCDawg]

My favorite podcast yet.  The vintage play analysis in particular was really, really valuable.  The things you guys were chatting about are the exact things you learn through deep playtesting.  For those of us without a chance to do that, having the virtual experience is very valuable.  If I wanted anything more, it would be more variety in the play analyses, but I bet you'll get to that in later podcasts.

I'm also very interested to know if Steve would update his budget, non-power Vintage deck since his articles about GWB beatz awhile back.  White in particular has seen so many new disruptive critters in recent sets that I think the archetype is worth a second look - check out the White Trash deck you mentioned, for example.  Is there a way to apply the principals of immediate interaction and control that will work against a modern field?  Or is shops to powerful - blue too unpredictable - to really play a hatebear deck?

As to your question - who will win Vintage champs - this is a hard question to answer, and not just in the trivial sense.  As you guys keep putting it, the field is so varied that it's not even obvious that you can pinpoint one kind of deck!  I mean, I suspect the winner will be either someone using Workshop or someone using Jace, the Mind Sculptor.  But beyond that, how precise can you be?  I guess, on balance, I have to go with a Blue deck of some sort.  The Workshop varients are probably more reliable, but (1) I bet everyone is expecting workshop due to the surge in interest, partly due to your podcast; and (2) blue has the most "whoops I win" conditions to fall back on.  This came out in your own analysis; often opponents have to decide which win condition to shut off when playing against random blue deck X.


P.S. I think you goofed at one point when you said that the opponent could play a Lodestone off a Mishra’s Workshop into a Mana Vault with a 2-Sphere in play.  The Vault would then cost 2, so you’d only end up with 4 mana out of the process, just like if you used a Crypt.

[Troy_Costisick]

P.S. I think you goofed at one point when you said that the opponent could play a Lodestone off a Mishra’s Workshop into a Mana Vault with a 2-Sphere in play.  The Vault would then cost 2, so you’d only end up with 4 mana out of the process, just like if you used a Crypt.
 

He said that his opponent could use a Shop to cast a Vault and a Vault to cast a Crypt.  That would give him the mana he needs to cast a Lodestone.

[MaximumCDawg]

P.S. I think you goofed at one point when you said that the opponent could play a Lodestone off a Mishra’s Workshop into a Mana Vault with a 2-Sphere in play.  The Vault would then cost 2, so you’d only end up with 4 mana out of the process, just like if you used a Crypt.
 

He said that his opponent could use a Shop to cast a Vault and a Vault to cast a Crypt.  That would give him the mana he needs to cast a Lodestone.

Oooooh that makes sense then, okay.

[DubDub]

Steve,
Hiromichi is attending incase you were still wondering.

Did everyone listen to the Hiromichi quote at the end ? 

I heard it at the end of the last one.  I didn't realize it was worthy of comment though.  Sorry guys.

[ReubenG]

@ReubenG: Your forgetting you have the Metamorph to copy thier Precursor, ONLY if you didn't cast the sphere!  Then you have 6 critters to their 3, plus whatever you drew.  I still hold to it that 3 Revokers is the way to go.

I do understand that you would have Metamorph in hand and the sphere would limit you the next turn if you miss the land drop or if a sphere lands on the other side.  I actually would be looking to use the 3rd Revoker next turn to shut down any Mox or artifact mana not named by the other Revokers, thereby locking the opponent's mana down further.  If they do find the pieces to land Precursor, you still will have Metamorph the following turn if you make the land drop.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but for me it comes down to the 3rd Revoker will only give you one more chump block and prevent use of one more piece of artifact mana (Mana Vault), Sphere will slow all of the opponents plays, and either way you have the Metamorph to answer Precursor.

[cvarosky80]

I just realized that during this episode, you mentioned how someone could show up with Turtenwald's winning list from last year and probably do very well, and then you and Paul show up with a Trygon Tezz deck, albeit with the full-on Gushbond engine. Don't know if that was deliberate on your part, but it is quite amusing.

[CHA1N5]

Shot in the dark: Oath will win Champs.

No way, Dredge!   

Matt wins the prize!

Thanks for the feedback, all:  we have a shorter interview episode going up this week that was recorded on site at GenCon.  We interviewed Paul Mastriano and Nick Detwiler!

[Metman]

Nice job on the podcast.  I really enjoyed the analysis part.  I think it would be really helpful for people looking to get interested in Vintage that have the notion that the format has it's stereotypical turn one wins or that the format is not skill intensive, that you just play your best spells and do broken things for the win.