[Free Podast/Article] SMIP #9: The Post-Innistrad Metagame

[Smmenen]

http://www.mtgcast.com/?p=21171

#

Kevin Cron and Steve Menendian discuss Innistrad’s impact on the format as demonstrated by it’s first major event: The ManaDrain Open 15.

Segments:
- 00:01:15: Announcements
- 00:03:30: TMD Open results. 1st: Dredge
- 00:06:12: 2nd: Moon Man MUD
- 00:07:40: 3rd – 8th: Blue Decks
- 00:13:45: Anti-Dredge sideboarding
- 00:18:00: Countermagic in the T8 and the environment, going forward: Mental Misstep, Flusterstorm, REB, et al.
- 00:40:40: Fact or Fiction
- 00:43:30: Snapcaster Mage (and Riptide Laboratory)
- 00:48:15: Doomsday
- 01:08:40: Witchbane Orb
- 01:11:00: The post-Innistrad metagame
- 01:13:02: Question of the Week: Last episode – What is the most unrestrictable card in Vintage?
- 01:14:00: Question of the Week: ???

Contact us at @ManyInsanePlays on Twitter or e-mail us at SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com

Your Host(s):  Kevin Cron , Steve Menendian
Show’s Email:  SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com
Show’s Twitter:  http://www.twitter.com/ManyInsanePlays

Let us know what you think!

[Troy_Costisick]

Suhweet!  Can't wait to give this a listen.

[diopter]

If Brainstorm were 4x I would hit Misstep x 4 like a cheap joke.

However it is not. Preordain x 4 is, I believe, a Meandeck specialty. I view it to be not that great. But viewing 4x Preordain as automatic will definitely influence  your view of Misstep.

[Smmenen]

If Brainstorm were 4x I would hit Misstep x 4 like a cheap joke.

However it is not. Preordain x 4 is, I believe, a Meandeck specialty. I view it to be not that great. But viewing 4x Preordain as automatic will definitely influence  your view of Misstep.

I only view 3-4 Preordains as mandatory in Gush decks.  I can't speak for non-Gush decks.   Preordain fills the roll unrestricted Ponder filled in the Gush-bond engine, which has been severely neutered.   

[Onslaught]

I really hate the fact that Mental Misstep was even printed at all. Combo decks sort of need it now in the arms race to Misstep opposing Missteps, Blue decks sort of need it for the same reason, and matchups feel a bit more homogenized. I hate feeling compelled to run x3 of a card that is dead against Workshops, and it makes Blue vs Blue a bit more random with the amount of free counters available at any given time.

Regarding Preordain x4: I've always found it extremely interesting that the most successful Gush Control decks have opted for x2 Preordain (East Coast Wins and Shay's Champs deck), while the more aggro control Meandeck lists have x4 Preordain. I love that a deck can feel completely different just from tweaking the amount of Preordains it has, especially when you mess with your land count.

[Smmenen]

I had no idea I was the only person who felt 4X Preordain was baseline 

Wow... 

[diopter]

Your lists lean heavily on Fastbond which tends to be a reliabilty hit even with Preordain.

[Smmenen]

Your lists lean heavily on Fastbond which tends to be a reliabilty hit even with Preordain.

huh??  

I can't even parse your sentence.  'a reliability hit'? 

[diopter]

My bad. Was in a hurry. Trying again:

Gushbond: not reliable enough

[Smmenen]

My bad. Was in a hurry. Trying again:

Gushbond: not reliable enough

I still don't understand what you mean.   

Everyone played 4 Ponder. Why wouldn't we play 4 Preordain? I don't get it.  Preordain is arguably better than Ponder. 

[Troy_Costisick]

Good show.  No real comments except to say that the top 8 at the Waterbury seems to be the best top 8 we've had in years.  I love the Snapcaster decks (and I feel a little vindicated since I was a big proponent of it the moment it was spoiled) and I love the Doomsday deck.  Great work guys

Peace,

-Troy

[diopter]

A little context. Everyone played 4 Brainstorm + 4 Ponder. Along with Gushes and Scrolls. Creating the critical mass that you just don't have often enough, with just Preordain + Gush.

[Smmenen]

A little context. Everyone played 4 Brainstorm + 4 Ponder. Along with Gushes and Scrolls. Creating the critical mass that you just don't have often enough, with just Preordain + Gush.

So, you're point is that the Gushbond engine isn't as consistent?  Granted.  But it is still possible to create a critical mass with Gush and Preordain in the mid-game.   Together, you can Gushbond out.   Alternatively, if you have an opening hand with two Gushes, Fastbond, and a Preordain or two, you can combo out from turn one.   

Again, it's really simple: people ran 4 Ponder for a reason in Gush decks, and not just because it facilitated the Gushbond engine.  It's also because it's a Gush card -- a Turbo-Xerox cards, if you will.  It helps you find land and run a lighter mana base.   Not running max Preordain in a Gush deck is puzzling to me. 

[diopter]

But it is still possible to create a critical mass with Gush and Preordain in the mid-game

Possible? Yes, of course. It doesn't happen consistently. I find it a pretty iffy gameplan. Leveraging the bounty from Gush as a 3rd turn 2/3 Ancestral + "free" land is what I tend to focus on.

It helps you find land and run a lighter mana base.

Only if it resolves!

As a standalone card, I am not all that impressed by Preordain in Vintage. It gets the "best" of the top ~2.5 of your deck, but doesn't actually ever become more than a strict 1 for 1 that you had to spend one mana for. It is much like Snapcaster Mage - it replaces itself in your hand, and you get flexibility in which card replaces it, but at cost. Why not just run more of the cards (or mix of cards) you are most likely to get with it and save yourself the mana.

Ponder was only possible to run because Brainstorm was also around. Thus a critical mass of card digging. Ponder was digging. Brainstorm was digging PLUS mini ancestral given the huge power level difference between card 1 and card 60.

If they ever unrestrict Ponder, then I'd hit 4 Ponder 4 Preordain in an instant. Again, critical mass of digging. Until then it seems pointless.

[diopter]

Oh, and I don't really think much of scenarios where key restricted cards like Fastbond are already in opening hands.

[Onslaught]

Why not just run more of the cards (or mix of cards) you are most likely to get with it and save yourself the mana.

Ok, I'll cut Preordains from my deck to add more copies of Fastbond and Yawgmoth's Will, thanks for the tip.

Really though, Preordain smoothing out your draw let you get away with a smaller manabase, aka you have more relevant cards to draw than the opponent in the midgame. I used to snap keep any bonkers hand with Preordain and one land, just because I knew I was going to see at least 4 new cards before it was time to play another land. Now with Missetp mania, I never know if someone is going to be bold enough to Misstep the Preordain, so hands like those are much more questionable.

[diopter]

you have more relevant cards to draw than the opponent in the midgame

At the cost of having no relevant turn 1 play. And, really, a decent chance not to see that second land. What with some decks running as few as 13, and the limiting factor of 1x Ponder and Brainstorm. In the Gush decks of old, often if you whiffed on land on Ponder you'd get Brainstorm instead! And you could try again next turn. Or you'd get artifact mana + Scroll (less likely, but added to your percentages).

The storm concept of Grow really does require that you have a lot more digging than this. Just because people ran 4 Brainstorms (mini Ancestrals) and 4 Brainstorm 4 Ponder 4 Scroll (Ancestrals + mini Ancestrals + critical mass) does not mean the logic carries over to 4 Preordain 1 everything else.

[Smmenen]

I really hate the fact that Mental Misstep was even printed at all. Combo decks sort of need it now in the arms race to Misstep opposing Missteps, Blue decks sort of need it for the same reason, and matchups feel a bit more homogenized. I hate feeling compelled to run x3 of a card that is dead against Workshops, and it makes Blue vs Blue a bit more random with the amount of free counters available at any given time.

First of all, I like the fact that MM exists because it makes it harder for an early Ancestral Recall to just win the game.  Early ancestral is a much bigger risk.   I think it makes Vintage less swingy.

But more generally, I actually like it, for the very reason you cited. 

Magic is largely about making cost/benefit decisions at the margin.   As blue players feel compelled to run more and more cards that have less and less value in other matchups, then those matchups should, in theory, become weaker, giving Shops, for example, room in the metagme.  That's what Magic is all about.   

I don't feel compelled to run 4 Mental Missteps at the moment.   Neither my Bob Gush nor my Cobra Gush deck would run 4.  But they are amazing my Doomsday deck, and just as good in my latest Gush deck (Remora Gush), which I played at the Meandeck Open (2nd place).   

I think the key point is the point we made in this podcast: there are more counterspell options than ever: Force, Drain, Spell Pierce, Flusterstorm, Mental Misstep, and Red Blasts -- and each are better or worse depending on the context: the deck you are playing and your metagame.

The key new card, I believe, in the mix is Mindbreak Trap.   Now that Flusterstorm has finally reached its expected value, I expect Mindbreak Trap to become a very important card in this field.   At the Meandeck Open, I played 10 free counterspells: 4 Force, 4 MM, and 2 Mindbreak Trap.   The Landstill deck also has 10 free counters: 4 Force, 4 MM, 2 Misdirection, and 2 MBT.   But that doesn't mean the format is homogenizing -- it means its evolving.

Let's let Vintage take its natural course instead of freaking out at change.  Change is a good thing!   Although I think many Vintage players dislike it.   I think that's actually what's driving some of the undercurrent of discontent.   Things are changing, and rapidly -- I've played 4 different decks in the last 5 tournaments, but that's a good thing!

Anyone who listens to this podcast can probably perceive incredible admiration at the current format by both Kevin and myself.   We are pretty much like kids on Christmas talking about the Waterbury Top 8 and the current spate of options available to Vintage players.   

[Onslaught]

I really hate the fact that Mental Misstep was even printed at all. Combo decks sort of need it now in the arms race to Misstep opposing Missteps, Blue decks sort of need it for the same reason, and matchups feel a bit more homogenized. I hate feeling compelled to run x3 of a card that is dead against Workshops, and it makes Blue vs Blue a bit more random with the amount of free counters available at any given time.

First of all, I like the fact that MM exists because it makes it harder for an early Ancestral Recall to just win the game.  Early ancestral is a much bigger risk.   I think it makes Vintage less swingy.

If everyone is running Misstep, isn't the likelihood of an early Ancestral roughly the same as it used to be? I Ancestral, you Misstep, I Misstep your Misstep (not to mention new scenarios that actually help Ancestral resolve more frequently than it used to, such as I Ancestral without UU open, you REB, I Misstep your REB).

Anyway, my big gripe was that blue decks needing Misstep to fight other blue decks leaves you with less slots to fill "on your own" after you are done including all the staples. If you think there are blue decks in the long term future that won't want/need Misstep, then that calms my fears a bit. I'd love for that to be the case. However, if Misstep starts off as an auto x3 or x4 for every blue deck (and even some non-blue...) in the same way that x4 FOW does, then I think that's an overall negative outcome for the format.

I of course strongly agree that running Flusterstorms, Missteps, etc. in high amounts means that you will be exposed by Workshops. But, if you are running a blue deck without Missteps/Flusterstorms and you get completely blown out by blue decks that do have Missteps/Flusterstorms, then you have to fight fire with fire. Workshops praying on the arms race between blue decks isn't a bad thing, I just thought it was worth mentioning that blue decks are going down a path that dooms them against other archetypes.

What's a specific example of a tier one blue deck that wouldn't run at least x3 Misstep right now? I'm not trying to be smarmy, I'm just genuinely curious if such a deck exists.

[diopter]

We are pretty much like kids on Christmas

I, too, feel this way. I would like to play my fave (Gush) but its weaknesses (Shops in particular but also I feel the metagame has shifted to make formerly positive-temp Duresses actually negative tempo) make me want to play Bobs instead.

But Bob is kind of slow so it makes me want to go back to Gush. I could marry the two but then I'd have to play junk like SDTop. So I say screw it and just play Jaces. But how many? Two? Three? The full four? It is basically blue half-Necro but it carries the heftiest investment of all. So that makes me turn to Cobras and Monoliths which is another can of wurms.

Or just say fuck it and play Kuldotha Shops. That has crossed my mind too.

Building and tuning different decks literally every week or second week, is pretty awesome.

[diopter]

And don't forget Fact or Fiction. There is a whole nuther strategy enabled by Fact that is just waiting to be unleashed.

[Onslaught]

We are pretty much like kids on Christmas

I, too, feel this way. I would like to play my fave (Gush) but its weaknesses (Shops in particular but also I feel the metagame has shifted to make formerly positive-temp Duresses actually negative tempo) make me want to play Bobs instead.

But Bob is kind of slow so it makes me want to go back to Gush. I could marry the two but then I'd have to play junk like SDTop. So I say screw it and just play Jaces. But how many? Two? Three? The full four? It is basically blue half-Necro but it carries the heftiest investment of all. So that makes me turn to Cobras and Monoliths which is another can of wurms.

Or just say fuck it and play Kuldotha Shops. That has crossed my mind too.

Building and tuning different decks literally every week or second week, is pretty awesome.

Agreed, I've built and played with more Vintage decks in the last six months than I had in the previous 7 years combined. This is why I'm so puzzled about claims of Gush being "oppressive" in some other threads. I'm liking Cobra right now too, for the same reasons you mentioned about Workshops. Cobra Doomsday looks like it has game against everything at the moment...

[Phele]

What's a specific example of a tier one blue deck that wouldn't run at least x3 Misstep right now? I'm not trying to be smarmy, I'm just genuinely curious if such a deck exists.

Confidant Painter runs quite fine without Missteps as it runs Blasts in this spot instead.

[Smmenen]

@ Onslaught:

I do not deny that there is a blue arms race occurring.  What I deny is that this is a bad thing.   My next Gush article will touch on this in more detail.   

[Kiriyuu]

Good show, thanks guys

Random unrelated question: What is the show's theme music?

[Onslaught]

"Leave That Thing Alone" by Rush

[Kiriyuu]

Thanks! : )

[Kiriyuu]

More serious question:

Given the Riptide Lab in Kevin's deck, what do you think of vendillion Clique, probably as a singleton?

[MaximumCDawg]

Good show as always, a bit overshadowed by the hoolpa surrounding the SCG author's sparring over the health of Vintage.  I also missed your play-by-play analysis.  You only did it once, discussing decisions made by a shops player, and I'm sad it hasn't come back again.

Please, please, please don't dedicate too much of your next show to the same fight...

[Smmenen]

You mean the 5 scenarios podcast?