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Author Topic: [Premium Article] So Many Insane Plays: Trends/Predictions for 2012 & A Vintage  (Read 2812 times)
Smmenen
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« on: December 28, 2011, 02:00:39 pm »

So Many Insane Plays -- Trends/ Predictions for 2012 & A Vintage Tournament Report

http://www.eternal-central.com/?p=2523

This is a 30 page article on all things Vintage.  The great bulk of it is a detailed play-by-play tournament report in which I narrowly missed Top 8 due to a few critical play mistakes.   Each of the games is analyzed play-by-play for pedagogical and entertainment value.   

To get a sense of my presentation, a FREE excerpt of my Round 1, Game 2 game is linked here: http://www.eternal-central.com/?p=2523

Blurb:

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As the metagame shifts in late 2011 and splinters into new directions heading into 2012, author Stephen Menendian shares his thoughts on the trends and predicts cards and strategies that will likely be popular in early 2012. He also shares a detailed tournament report piloting Remora Gush with Tarmogoyf, including his trademark in depth turn-by-turn analysis.
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cvarosky80
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2011, 10:30:39 pm »

Very nice article, Steve. Always a treat to get some insight as to how a long-time player goes through his decision trees during their games.
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« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2011, 10:31:28 am »

Do you share the decklist your excerpt is based on? Is it pretty similar to the Mastriano Remora-Goyf-Gush build, just with red?
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Smmenen
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2011, 10:39:04 am »

Here's what I played in tournament:

RemoraGush with Goyfs, by Stephen Menendian
Business (40)
4 Force of Will
4 Mental Misstep
2 Mindbreak Trap
4 Mystic Remora
4 Gush
4 Preordain
1 Quirion Dryad
2 Tarmogoyf
2 Trygon Predator
1 Fastbond
1 Tinker
1 Blightsteel Colosssus
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder

Mana Sources (20)
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
7 fetchlands
2 Underground Sea
2 Tropical Island
1 Volcanic Island
1 Island

Sideboard (15)
1 Trygon Predator
2 Ingot Chewer
1 Volcanic Island
2 Lightning Bolt
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Yixlid Jailer
1 Tormod's Crypt
2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Pyroblast


It's derived directly from the Remora Gush deck I played in November, with three cards swapped out: + 3 green creatures, - 2 jace & 1 mana accelerant, to combat Landstill.   The green creatures are there for Landstill, as I explain in the article. 
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2011, 01:46:05 pm »

Good to see that you are trying out Goyf, Steve. As I have said elsewhere, I think this is a great time for creatures in Vintage.  Did you try Delver in this deck? I've been pretty impressed with him.
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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2011, 07:26:03 pm »

why REB's over pyros?  both do what you're bringing them in for, but pyros could grow your goyf in a pinch if need be.  just curious about the 2 for 1 split & why not the other way around if you're worried about meddling mage or surgical extraction, etc etc
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2011, 12:11:50 pm »

why REB's over pyros?  both do what you're bringing them in for, but pyros could grow your goyf in a pinch if need be.  just curious about the 2 for 1 split & why not the other way around if you're worried about meddling mage or surgical extraction, etc etc

Probably for the same reason he believes Misdirection is finally returning to the format.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2011, 05:49:14 pm »

Writing articles of this nature isn't easy, but I'm curious if people find the approach helpful.  I tried to make it useful for both the casual reader and the studious reader.  People who want to read this like a text can now do so.   But people who just want some Vintage content during the holidays may have it.

There could always have been more editing for ease of use, but as with anything, time is of the essence.  I wanted to get this out before the new year, and give people a chance to enjoy this on their down time.  I know people can become stir crazy this time of year, or get sick of being roasted by central heating.

Re: The 2 reb/1 pyro configuration is simply a legacy configuration, and accidental.  In the past, I've run Pyro over Reb with Goyf builds.    

Re: Delver: I discussed Delver glowingly in my Innistrad Set Review, labeling it as a potential Vintage playable.  So I was not surprised to see it finally emerge.  The interesting question will be whether further Delver decks emerge or whether the Delver/Goyf deck you helped designed lacks staying power.  

Predicting the future is hazardous.  Events make perfect sense in retrospect, particularly metagame shifts.  That's because the causal factors that produced them are known before hand.  The difficulty is predicting exactly which direction those shifts will make. It's easy to over or underestimate crowd behavior.   The predictions I make in this article are directed at a creature heavy (for vintage standards) metagame, and I were each grounded in facts and logic.  

« Last Edit: December 30, 2011, 05:53:10 pm by Smmenen » Logged

Smmenen
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« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2011, 05:40:33 pm »

This article was down for the last 24 hours due to website errors, which have now been corrected.  Thanks Jaco.  Apologies to people who wanted to read it or the preview.  You now can.
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« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2012, 11:07:51 am »

Steven, in your first game I would have Tinkered immediately.

I'm interested in your thoughts on these kinds of decisions: when is it correct to gamble on an early, unprotected Tinker (where you win if they have no Force of Will or singleton out -- about a 60% chance, all else being equal) and when should you stay in low gear? Will a long game against another blue control deck really offer you a win percentage higher than 60%? Does it matter if it's game 1 or 3?

(Incidentally, I lost a game to you at the Waterbury to a top-decked Hurkyl's after I resolved an early Tinker.)
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Smmenen
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« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2012, 03:16:35 pm »

I assume you are referring to the first game of round 2?  I agree with you.   What's odd is that I don't even think that option occurred to me.  I was so locked into playing the control role, and keeping my Remora alive that it didn't even occur to me not to pay for Remora to play Tinker.

The Tinker question is a tough one.  Getting Tinker countered can be extremely painful if you are mana light.  At that point in the game, I should have had a better read of the situation.   In Vintage, you can fairly often deduce what your opponent has or doesn't have.  It's not foolproof, but we aren't in an era where opponent's can afford to let tactically important cards resolve.   This isn't 1998 or 1994 where some spells are pretty innocuous in some matchups.  Virtually every deck in the format interacts most of the time in ways that almost every other deck cares about. 

It's not difficult to tell if your opponent can counter a particular threat if you pay attention during the game, and think about that question.   The bigger problem here was that I wasn't even contemplating the possibility of letting Remora expire, and thus I didn't think to examine my chances of resolving Tinker. 


(Incidentally, I lost a game to you at the Waterbury to a top-decked Hurkyl's after I resolved an early Tinker.)


Are you sure I topdecked the Hurkyl's and didn't have a tutor or Hurkyl's in hand? 
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