[Free Article] Grixis on the Draw Vs. Mud

[forests failed you]

New free article up on SCG

http://www.starcitygames.com/article/25260_Grixis-On-The-Draw-vs-Workshops.html


A post sideboard match up analysis of Grixis on the draw against MUD.  enjoy

Cheers,
Brian

[Prospero]

A very good read.  Thanks, Brian.

I was a little surprised to see it be quite so one sided; I thought that a couple of your hands were good enough to win.  Martello is very powerful right now, it's a good metagame call and has been for a while.  I'm interested to see what happens with the event this weekend, and the NEV Invitational in January.

[forests failed you]

Yeah, the hand that really drove the message home for me was the one where I draw pretty much the perfect hand that I would sculpt on the draw if I had a choice--and my opponent is like:  "you can't win."  When I actually thought about it, even my best post board draws lose to a lot of possible MUD hands.  In short, the MUD nut draw on the play easily beats the Grixis nut draw on the draw.  Which is fine, considering that the Grixis nut draw on the play beats the MUD nut draw on the draw. 

[hitman]

When I actually thought about it, even my best post board draws lose to a lot of possible MUD hands.  In short, the MUD nut draw on the play easily beats the Grixis nut draw on the draw.  Which is fine, considering that the Grixis nut draw on the play beats the MUD nut draw on the draw.

If being on the play is that important, isn't the winner largely determined by who won the die roll? We're not really talking about only nut draws either.  Besides game two and three, those were pretty average MUD hands.  If you have an average hand on the draw and MUD has an average hand on the play, MUD wins then too.  To me, it seems whoever is on the play wins.  Even in the last game, you have an amazing hand and he has an average one.  It still came down to a damage race with you ending at three life.  The same can be said of the blue on Dredge match and the Dredge on MUD match. 

There may be balance among the top decks power-wise but what kind of format does it make when the first two turns are so impactful as to make it very unlikely that you'll play a real game?  In my opinion, all of the top decks in Vintage need some air taken out of their sails.

[Cruel Ultimatum]

Yeah if your blue deck is on the draw and doesnt have wastelands you are going to be in rough shape.

[vaughnbros]

This was a pretty good read.  I liked the conversation aspect of it.

There may be balance among the top decks power-wise but what kind of format does it make when the first two turns are so impactful as to make it very unlikely that you'll play a real game?  In my opinion, all of the top decks in Vintage need some air taken out of their sails.

I've played quite a few fish decks that have solid match ups against all three, blue, dredge, and workshops.  As well as the big three being strong against each other.  The only archetype left by the way side lately has been pure combo decks, but they are making some what of a resurgence.  For this reason I don't think any restrictions absolutely need to be made. 

If the goal is to increase attendance and popularity of the format I think workshops could use a restriction though.  We are looking at about 30% of decks in any given meta game are workshops now and new players don't like being told they can't cast a card.  Especially when it's one mana or it's supposed to be free!  I think this article shows this happens quite often against average workshops hands.  Also it seems that Forgemaster or Martello workshop build have made the archetype completely undiverse.  Before it was a legitimate choice between which variant of workshops.  Now I don't feel like its really a choice.  The only real thing to choose from when playing workshops now is what fish, mirror, and dredge hate to play in your sideboard.

If your deck is on the draw you are going to be in rough shape.

Fixed that for you.

[Killane]

I think this article makes a good case for the restriction of Lodestone Golem. Some of those hands really ought to have been able to beat shops on the draw. Lodestone Golem allows them to move into aggro mode too quickly. The card just makes the archetype too good, IMHO, which also makes Combo unplayable without making some sort of unholy Oath of Druids hybrid deck.

[Twaun007]

I think this article makes a good case for the restriction of Lodestone Golem.

Man, this is getting old.

Can't blue decks adapt, metagame properly, and run artifact hate in the main instead of Flusterstorms and Mental Missteps.

I also want to know, what has changed since this article was printed? X and Owen – On Workshops and Sucking

Build his deck and start Merc'in Workshops.

[Metman]

I think this article makes a good case for the restriction of Lodestone Golem.

Man, this is getting old.

Can't blue decks adapt, metagame properly, and run artifact hate in the main instead of Flusterstorms and Mental Missteps.

I also want to know, what has changed since this article was printed? X and Owen – On Workshops and Sucking

Build his deck and start Merc'in Workshops.

Yes they can.  Will they is the better question.  Blue mages like to be the best blue mages not the best players.  Trust me, it's  rut I was in for years.

Lodestone Golem does not need to be restricted any more than Force of Will needs to be restricted.  There are plenty solutions to a first turn Lodestone Golem on the play.

[JACO]

I think this article makes a good case for the restriction of Lodestone Golem.

Man, this is getting old.

Can't blue decks adapt, metagame properly, and run artifact hate in the main instead of Flusterstorms and Mental Missteps.

I also want to know, what has changed since this article was printed? X and Owen – On Workshops and Sucking

Build his deck and start Merc'in Workshops.

I could not agree more with this sentiment. The reason decks like MUD and Dredge do very well in some metagames is simply because the Blue decks are strictly worried about beating other Blue decks with their maindeck choices, and devote anywhere from 0-3 cards to beating other archetypes in the maindeck to streamline. If players ran more answers maindeck to combat menacing strategies we wouldn't always be having the perennial "is X too good/do we need to restrict X?" discussion (where X equals a card/strategy/deck that people have not yet properly metagamed for).

[vaughnbros]

Can't blue decks adapt, metagame properly, and run artifact hate in the main instead of Flusterstorms and Mental Missteps.

First off the entire format has already adapted drastically since the printing of lodestone golem.  Most blue decks didn't used to run 15/16 lands.  And a few used to run mana vault and rituals.

Second they can't exactly do this as easily as you may think.  Other blue decks are still running these cards main deck meaning you will get slammed by them game 1 without them.  Also a newer deck to the scene landstill will become an even worse match up without them.

Lastly these were post sideboard games hes highlighting here.  Even if he was running 4 main deck ingot chewers over flusterstorms and mental missteps his deck is still a dog in this match up when it loses the die roll.  That's main decking 4 of the best artifact hate card in all of magic and still getting destroyed by workshops.

By this logic we should be able to unrestrict all the cards that made storm good, because we can main deck missteps, flusterstorms, and mindbreak traps to beat them.

I also want to know, what has changed since this article was printed? X and Owen – On Workshops and Sucking

Kuldotha Forgemaster has found time to work his way into the format.  Now workshop pilots have a refined deck list we know as Martello.

Grafidgger's Cage was printed.  This made dredge a significantly weaker deck, one of the few opponents workshops actually had issue against.  It also affected the only other big opponent of workshops, fish, they are now running grafdigger's cage and possibly missteps in the main hurting their workshops match up.

Landstill has become a significantly more popular deck choice.  This gives blue decks another serious predator to worry about.

Build his deck and start Merc'in Workshops.

Yes merc'in mono red shops and two 5c shops decks.  I don't think anyone has a problem with the power level of these workshop builds.  Its the mono brown 4 tinker.deck

I'll reiterate this point again for the basis of restriction.  The ultimate goal of any restriction is to make the format more enjoyable and as a result increase the popularity of it.  The Nicks, Nick Detwiler and Nick Coss, created a huge N.E.V. series with amazing prize support to try and generate higher attendance and yet attendance barely changed if at all.  There are three arguments from what I've heard of that people don't want to enter the format.  
1. Turn 1 win combos.  These don't really exist any more.  
2. They need don't have the cards.  These are 15 proxy tournaments and I know quite a few players willing to lend cards not much more we can do in this area.  
3. Workshops.  New players don't like being told that due to no fault of their own they literally can't cast anything an entire game.  This deck has been the juggernaut of the format for years now and I think we can safely say at this point that the deck isn't going to be dethroned from this position without a major development.

[Twaun007]

Can't blue decks adapt, metagame properly, and run artifact hate in the main instead of Flusterstorms and Mental Missteps.

First off the entire format has already adapted drastically since the printing of lodestone golem.  Most blue decks didn't used to run 15/16 lands.  And a few used to run mana vault and rituals.

From my observation the format still hasn’t adapted to combating Lodestone Golem.  Blue decks are still built with intention to battle against other Blue decks.  Just look at the cards Blue Mages are running in the main. Mental Misstep, Flusterstorm…. How can someone complain about Workshops when they choose to run cards that are completely dead in the match up?  What ever happened to those ECW lists that had Ancient Grudges, Nature’s Claim, Hurkyl’s Recall, and Empty the Warrens in the main? Those were a nightmare for Shops.

Second they can't exactly do this as easily as you may think.  Other blue decks are still running these cards main deck meaning you will get slammed by them game 1 without them.  Also a newer deck to the scene landstill will become an even worse match up without them.

I'm pretty sure diversity in blue decks cannot be used as a good validation for restrictions in the workshop archetype. I thought there was this thing called metagaming where you had to figure out what to prepare for? Plus, if you metagamed against Shops and the other blue decks didn’t shouldn’t you be ahead by not chalking that match up as a loss?

If this were the case, how in the world would people metagame/prepare for legacy? That formats more diverse that EDH.

Lastly these were post sideboard games he’s highlighting here.  Even if he was running 4 main deck ingot chewers over flusterstorms and mental missteps his deck is still a dog in this match up when it loses the die roll.  That's main decking 4 of the best artifact hate card in all of magic and still getting destroyed by workshops.

Are you kidding me? Quad Lazer Ingot Chewer in the main game one + other pieces(counters) of hate would be a nightmare for workshops.

I also want to know, what has changed since this article was printed? X and Owen – On Workshops and Sucking

Kuldotha Forgemaster has found time to work his way into the format.  Now workshop pilots have a refined deck list we know as Martello.

Grafidgger's Cage was printed.  This made dredge a significantly weaker deck, one of the few opponents workshops actually had issue against.  It also affected the only other big opponent of workshops, fish, they are now running grafdigger's cage and possibly missteps in the main hurting their workshops match up.

Landstill has become a significantly more popular deck choice.  This gives blue decks another serious predator to worry about.

Kuldotha costs five, takes a turn to activate, and you need to get rid of 3 artifacts. Blue decks have Jace, Pithing Needle, removal, and counterspells. Would the matchup change if MUD wasn’t running Steel Wall instead of the Forgemaster? I think not.

Cage stops Forgemaster from pulling out big guys from the deck and pilots choosing to running cage in the main is another metagame call. Plus Cage in the Main is most likely ran to combat Tinker and Yawgmoth's Will. Weaponry of the Blue Mage.

If Landstill is a popular choice how do they beat up on workshops? There deck is loaded with awful cards.

Also, is there a difference if Landstill counters all your spells vs Workshops locking all of them out?

Build his deck and start Merc'in Workshops.

Yes merc'in mono red shops and two 5c shops decks.  I don't think anyone has a problem with the power level of these workshop builds.  It’s the mono brown 4 tinker.deck

From what I hear Owen is a pretty good Magic player. Did you read the first few paragraphs of this article? http://www.eternal-central.com/?p=1023
It was written a bit ago but the MUD decks haven’t changed that much.  

- 4 Slash Panther
+4 Kuldothe Forgemaster

I'm sure his views may have changed a bit, but if a player of that caliber isn't afraid of the shops why should anyone else be?

I'll reiterate this point again for the basis of restriction.  The ultimate goal of any restriction is to make the format more enjoyable and as a result increase the popularity of it.  The Nicks, Nick Detwiler and Nick Coss, created a huge N.E.V. series with amazing prize support to try and generate higher attendance and yet attendance barely changed if at all.  There are three arguments from what I've heard of that people don't want to enter the format.  

Both Nicks built a vintage scene from the ground up. There's even issues about conflicting tournament schedules..... To me that is a good sign of Vintage being popular. Its funny because the only thing I hear about people not wanting to get into vintage out hear in the Midwest is nothing. I find that to be a huge problem. when you play in a format that is completely unknown to most players.

And believe me when I say this, Team Serious and myself are going to try and promote vintage in a new way. It hasn't been done before, but I think it will be awesome.  

I also find these 3 reasons for not playing Vintage such a cop out.

1. Turn 1 win combos.  These don't really exist anymore.  

Turn 1 wins are a popular myth about vintage. Sure they happen, but it’s rare.

2. They need don't have the cards.  These are 15 proxy tournaments and I know quite a few players willing to lend cards not much more we can do in this area.  

The same need and haves can be said about legacy and that format is doing pretty well. I know cost cannot be a factor anymore since some legacy staples can cost as much as a Mox.

3. Workshops.  New players don't like being told that due to no fault of their own they literally can't cast anything an entire game.  This deck has been the juggernaut of the format for years now and I think we can safely say at this point that the deck isn't going to be dethroned from this position without a major development.

Have you ever played against Dredge? It has a super quick win condition (find a single uncounterable card)  and an insane absence of interaction more so than Workshops have.

When Vintage was held at Nationals it opened many eyes to what the format is. Matches went to time, people finally put names and faces together from vintage articles, we played with real cards, etc... the list goes on. Vintage isn't this crazy format, people are just not exposed to what vintage really is.

The deck I played only had five good sideboard cards for Workshops, and it clearly had more cards that I wanted to side out for more cards against Mishra's Workshop. I also don't think it would be unreasonable to play even more Workshop hate out in the Grixis sideboard.

With Workshop being so good, I don't really understand people's fascination with playing a bunch of Mental Missteps and Flusterstorms maindeck. It simply creates situations where there aren't enough cards to bring in for the amount of cards you have to bring out. I've noticed this to be a trend with deck design in the past few matchup analyses I've done. People don't have enough cards or the right stuff to be good against Workshop on the draw post-board.

Demars makes a great point here about deck building. If people are having trouble fighting the Workshop menace I suggest following his advise. The guy writes articles for a reason.

-Twaun P. Out

[vaughnbros]

Twaun, although I disagree with some of what you said I'm not going to get into a big quoting battle with you.  I just want to ask one question.  What would you consider workshops worst match up?

I asked this same question to a friend of mine, who had played martello in a few tournaments.  His response was Martello.  Pressing further he said that there literally wasn't a single match up that he thought was favored against him.

After some thought and discussion, I came a similar conclusion.  I've tested just about every list that I thought looked interesting, including the confidant and ECW lists that you referenced.  I've also built, tested and scrapped hundreds of rogue decks.  Of all of these deck lists that I've tried the only ones that had anything much better than 50:50 match up against workshops have been decks where the primary color of the deck is red or white.  No one else whose ever seriously discussed this with has ever found any other conclusion either.  This includes what I've read here in the deck discussion forum.

The fact of the matter is that ingot chewer, unless hard cast, is only a 1 for 1, ancient grudge isn't always cast-able, an eot hurkyl's recall is really difficult to pull off, and kataki can be played through.  The fact of the matter is there really isn't an artifact hate card that is always effective workshop decks.

You may want to continue to stand on your soap box and preach about how workshops isn't the problem, but what's more believable that over two and a half years of lodestone isn't enough time to adapt or workshops actually is over powered?

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

Being probably the most popular landstill player on the east coast, I would like to say landstill is fine against shops if the landstill pilot knows what they are doing...1-3 bolts 3-4 chewer and 1-2 heretic, with counters, and wastelands with lock abilities with crucible. I have no doubt in my mind landstill is more in favor in the matchup. Sure if I guess at the meta wrong and get greedy on shop hate I may be punished. But all in all landstill is not the bitch in the shop match...

This being said alot of the people running landstill aren't the best players, they just pick it up assuming its an easy deck to play. The tiny mistakes of landstill in a game will result in a loss bc the deck is not forgiving like busted blue decks..

I haven't been running landstill for the last few years bc it's bad vs shops lol...just saying

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

Bein locked out by shops is almost non existent lately especially with engineered explosives handling spheres or chalice of the void at will...

Being a blue Mage myself (lol) I would love to see golem restricted but I don't think it's necessary...a restriction of chalice of the void I would be happy with and see that better overall. Golem and chalice turn 1 is not fun nor fair...

[quicksilvervii]

Twaun, although I disagree with some of what you said I'm not going to get into a big quoting battle with you.  I just want to ask one question.  What would you consider workshops worst match up?

I asked this same question to a friend of mine, who had played martello in a few tournaments.  His response was Martello.  Pressing further he said that there literally wasn't a single match up that he thought was favored against him.

After some thought and discussion, I came a similar conclusion.  I've tested just about every list that I thought looked interesting, including the confidant and ECW lists that you referenced.  I've also built, tested and scrapped hundreds of rogue decks.  Of all of these deck lists that I've tried the only ones that had anything much better than 50:50 match up against workshops have been decks where the primary color of the deck is red or white.  No one else whose ever seriously discussed this with has ever found any other conclusion either.  This includes what I've read here in the deck discussion forum.

The fact of the matter is that ingot chewer, unless hard cast, is only a 1 for 1, ancient grudge isn't always cast-able, an eot hurkyl's recall is really difficult to pull off, and kataki can be played through.  The fact of the matter is there really isn't an artifact hate card that is always effective workshop decks.

You may want to continue to stand on your soap box and preach about how workshops isn't the problem, but what's more believable that over two and a half years of lodestone isn't enough time to adapt or workshops actually is over powered?

The numbers don't lie.
Morphling.de stats at the time of this post:

September 2012 Top 15
Vintage (15 events)
1. Force of Will (300)
2. Grafdigger's Cage (166)
3. Mental Misstep (166)
4. Underground Sea (149)
5. Leyline of the Void (148)
6. Wasteland (141)
7. Ingot Chewer (134)
8. Scalding Tarn (129)
9. Dark Confidant (128)
10. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (126)
11. Mana Drain (126)
12. Flusterstorm (122)
13. Polluted Delta (112)
14. Snapcaster Mage (107)
15. Flooded Strand (101)


Argue about Lodestone/workshops all you want.  The numbers don't support your hypothesis.


Also, did your friend every win tournament he has played with Martello?

You can argue their play skill vs. blue mage play skill all day - what it boils down to is you don't like playing against the deck (and I can respect that).  I don't like playing against dredge, but both decks are far from unbeatable.

[quicksilvervii]

Bein locked out by shops is almost non existent lately especially with engineered explosives handling spheres or chalice of the void at will...

Being a blue Mage myself (lol) I would love to see golem restricted but I don't think it's necessary...a restriction of chalice of the void I would be happy with and see that better overall. Golem and chalice turn 1 is not fun nor fair...

Neither is a t1 tinker.  This is vintage.  Broken things happen.

That being said, I don't know where you are all playing where workshops is this giant menace.  Playing on the East coast in NYSE events in particular (where the brown decks FAR outweigh the blue decks in the room) I see no evidence that shops should have any cards restricted or banned right now.

[Twaun007]

Twaun, although I disagree with some of what you said I'm not going to get into a big quoting battle with you.  I just want to ask one question.  What would you consider workshops worst match up?

....

You may want to continue to stand on your soap box and preach about how workshops isn't the problem, but what's more believable that over two and a half years of lodestone isn't enough time to adapt or workshops actually is over powered?

I'm not here to battle or stand on a soap box. Its just a bit frustrating when the vintage community calls for restrictions because the meta hasn't adjusted. Two and a half years of Workshop dominance? C'mon man, that's incomparable to the 12+ years of dominance Blue has had in vintage.  

In my opinion, the worst matchup for Workshops are still blue decks that are tuned properly. Landstill can be a grind since it has a similar strategy and I've also seen tuned up Noble Fish/Bant Style decks crush through a field of Workshops.  

...

The numbers don't lie.
Morphling.de stats at the time of this post:

September 2012 Top 15
Vintage (15 events)
1. Force of Will (300)
2. Grafdigger's Cage (166)
3. Mental Misstep (166)
4. Underground Sea (149)
5. Leyline of the Void (148)
6. Wasteland (141)
7. Ingot Chewer (134)
8. Scalding Tarn (129)
9. Dark Confidant (128)
10. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (126)
11. Mana Drain (126)
12. Flusterstorm (122)
13. Polluted Delta (112)
14. Snapcaster Mage (107)
15. Flooded Strand (101)

Argue about Lodestone/workshops all you want.  The numbers don't support your hypothesis.


Also, did your friend every win tournament he has played with Martello?

You can argue their play skill vs. blue mage play skill all day - what it boils down to is you don't like playing against the deck (and I can respect that).  I don't like playing against dredge, but both decks are far from unbeatable.

Thanks for the number crunch.

[vaughnbros]

Josh by no means am I saying that every deck loses to workshops.  I'd consider landstill probably a 50:50 match up with even pilots.  Your going to have an advantage in the match up unless going against a strong workshops pilot.  This is where Twaun may have also gotten the misconception that ECW has a great workshops match up.  The pilots of that deck were generally very good.

Argue about Lodestone/workshops all you want.  Your numbers don't support your hypothesis.

Also, did your friend every win tournament he has played with Martello?

You can argue their play skill vs. blue mage play skill all day - what it boils down to is you don't like playing against the deck (and I can respect that).  I don't like playing against dredge, but both decks are far from unbeatable.

Yes it is hard to argue against these numbers, but numbers can lie.  I'm sure the fact that flooded strand is above workshops is a good indicator.  These numbers don't factor in the percentage of each deck at the tournaments though and morphling also doesnt post all the top 8's.  

No he didn't win them all, but he top 8ed in most of them.

That being said, I don't know where you are all playing where workshops is this giant menace.  Playing on the East coast in NYSE events in particular (where the brown decks FAR outweigh the blue decks in the room) I see no evidence that shops should have any cards restricted or banned right now.

I don't think it's a giant menace in the balancing standpoint since they still lose to die rolls, the pilot and variance.  I just don't think its a coincidence that the rise of stax came at the same time that attendance fell.

I'm not here to battle or stand on a soap box. Its just a bit frustrating when the vintage community calls for restrictions because the meta hasn't adjusted. Two and a half years of Workshop dominance? C'mon man, that's incomparable to the 12+ years of dominance Blue has had in vintage. 

Maybe this is all it is.  A new king has caused people to flee.

[quicksilvervii]

Yes it is hard to argue against these numbers, but numbers can lie.  I'm sure the fact that flooded strand is above workshops is a good indicator.  These numbers don't factor in the percentage of each deck at the tournaments though and morphling also doesnt post all the top 8's.  

No he didn't win them all, but he top 8ed in most of them.

This has been posted about a LOT post Gencon.  I will quote this from another thread, a thread that you were a part of:

Quote from: bluemage55 on August 22, 2012, 07:01:37 PM
Based on Morphling.de, there were 11 Vintage tourneys across the world in April/May/June with at least 33 players.  12 out of 88 Top 8 decks were Shops.
Let me break that down a little further.

4/14 Westmont: 41 total players, 0 Shops in Top 8
4/15 Camp. Nebraska: 33 total, 0 in T8
4/15 Città di Castello: 42 total, 0 in T8 but only the T4 was listed
4/15 LMV: 35 total, 2 in T8
4/21 Clarks Summit: 33 total, 2 in T8
4/28 LCV: 48 total, 2 in T8

5/5 Selden: 48 total, 2 in T8
5/20 Annecy (BoM 6): 337 total, 2 in T8
5/26 Barcelona: 47 total, 1 in T8

6/30 Clarks Summit: 35 total, 1 in T8
6/30 LCV: 42 total, 0 in T8

Here are two more from July just for the heck of it:
7/21 Westmont: 37 total, 1 in T8
7/28 LCV: 44 total, 2 in T8

And one from August:
8/12 Westmont: 65 total, 3 in T8

I see no reason for people to overreact to the results from GenCon.

Thanks for doing that.  

We can also add to that the Prelim tournaments and their top 8s.   The 10AM Prelim tournament had one Shop deck in its top 8.

The appearance of four shop decks in the top 8 was alarming, but I'm glad that the surrounding data suggests that as an anomoly rather than something we should have expected...

Until I see reliable data otherwise, my stance remains unchanged.  I do not see a disproportionate amount of shop decks representing top 8 than there are in the field.

[Samoht]

The reports of Blue's demise are greatly overstated. Despite the popularity of LSG in Shop decks, they still comprise less of the field than Big Blue. When constructing your 60, you need to focus on the deck you are most likely to see in the event, and sprinkle in what you can that has collateral damage elsewhere or a total hoser you can tutor for. Under the current meta game, you need to be prepared for Blue decks running JtMS and Bob/Gush/Trinket Mage primarily, while paying lip service to Shops and Fish where you can. SB for Dredge and Shops, potentially Fish if you need to. The only place that is numerically dominated by Shop t8's is the NE, but here they represent a much larger portion of the field than in other locales and it is in line with the % of decks in the event.

As a blue player, I can say without a shadow of a doubt that I detest being on the draw twice against Workshops in a match. That said, I feel as if I'm favored against anyone not named Nick Detwiler or Raf Forino when my opponent is running Mishra's Workshops(I concede my sample size of Shop pilots is limited, there could easily be more). So many players don't understand the sequencing of their cards and make terrible lines based on it. Brian DeMars is a keen Vintage mind, but every article he puts out involving decks that are playing Lodestone Golem is full of terrible lines from the Shop player. It's overt that it's a non-Shop expert that is playing the deck for the sake of the article, as they just run out their best card without thought of how to establish position or what the consequences of a counter are when it is possible to be countered. I'm not against the all in play, but why not lock it down with the cards your deck plays for that specific reason.

@Vaughnbros: Have you tested my UBgr Remora Gush against Martello? It is quite strong against it, and I would say I was favored in the match up. When I ran off all my strong places in the beginning of the year, it was on that deck. I had to run through a number of Shop pilots, including the deck's creator in a few straight events. In the event I won I had to beat Raf twice to take it down. The strongest way to beat Shops is with a combination of cards, Trygon Predator, Ancient Grudge, and Ingot Chewer. You also need to play around their plan and mulligan intelligently. There is also the issue of Martello's ability to shift gears from a more aggressive creature based deck to one that is heavily controlling through it's larger number of Spheres and Revoker(used on Mox/Ring not Jace). I'd agree that URg Landstill is 50/50.

[Stormanimagus]

basically ANY deck can contend with a turn 1 golem on the draw if it has full artifact acceleration. I have found that turn 1-2 mayor of avabruck is insanely good against shop decks. or like turn 1 land mox noble on the draw against lodestone followed by turn 2 mayor. Mayor answer golem very nicely cause you just get an endless stream of 3/3's to outlast him. Humans has often been able to plow through most of the hate shops has to offer. Lodestone is as fair as other threats in Vintage.

Honestly, if I were to call for any card to be restricted right now it would likely be Jace. Jace is so impossible to come back from if they lay it down turn 1 on the play off lotus. I don't know what it is but blue decks seem to get turn 1 Jace a lot. Jace is sort of a problem in Vintage if you ask me and should get the ax. Even Jace isn't THAT unfair though so I think it is probably ok to leave unrestricted. I think the way that wizards could shake things up in Vintage and is by unrestricted demonic consultation. Now THERE would be a move on wizards' part! That would certainly garner excitement for ANT again and create a deck that could legitimately TRY to go off early.

Just my 2 cents.

-Storm

[Elric]

This article didn't quite articulate why knowing how to win a post-sideboard game on the draw can be so important in some matchups. If you are a serious underdog in game 1, you are very likely to lose game 1 and need to win a post-sideboarded game on the draw to win the match. By comparison, if you are highly favored in game 1, you are very likely to win game 1 and only to need to win a post-sideboarded game on the play to win the match.

For game 1, improving your chance to win by 5 percentage points on the draw and 5 percentage points on the play has the same effect on your chance to win the match as improving your chance to win game 1 by 10 percentage points on the draw and 0 percentage points on the play, or vice versa.

The same is not true in general of post-sideboarded games. Improving your chance to win an on-the-draw post-sideboarded game by 10 percentage points could be worth more, less, or the same in terms of your chance to win the match as improving your chance to win an on-the-play post-sideboarded game by 10 percentage points, depending on the particulars of the matchup.

This chain of reasoning is subtle, and historically I haven't been that good at explaining it without resorting to hard to follow mathematics.

If your G1 percentage is good, you win more matches when you have skewed postboard odds (of winning based on being on the play/draw) than with even ones, even given the same average of (your chance to win on the play post-sideboard and your chance to win on the draw post-sideboard).