[Free Article] Theft: The Game Has Changed

[DubDub]

Link to a SCG article up today talking about theft and theft-prevention.  Theft has been a growing concern for me, and I'm sure for many other members of the Vintage/Eternal community.  Give it a read.

Note: I am not the author.

[rpf5029]

The mugging story really alarms me.  How easy would it be for an organized group of thieves to tail people from a large event (especially in a big city) to some reasonable distance away?  (Hotel, whatever.)  I dunno.  Scary.

[Smmenen]

This story convinces me that I should proxy many high value cards as I can from here on out.  Ill probably use the max proxy limit at the NYSE event when I travel to New York. 

[DubDub]

For what it's worth, I think this is an additional avenue of leverage on the Reserve list, and the general unstated policy of not-reprinting to reduce card value.  (Even Modern Masters has been described as a quite limited print run testing the waters for additional reprintings.)

Players have the right to tell large tournament organizers (SCG) and WotC that they're not willing to risk their safety or financial well-being to play a game.

Yes, the cards have always been meant to be collectible, but people are getting hurt and people are losing tens of thousands of dollars.  Why does that have a place in our game?

No ring of organized thieves is salivating over the chance to steal chess pieces.

[Prospero]

It's a major concern for me, both as a player and as a T/O.  It's why I'm paying to have security on site, and am working on other measures to ensure that everyone leaves with all their possessions and nothing more.

[Smmenen]

I aporeciate that, But you can't control what happens off site or in a hotel, parking lot, lunch break, at dinner, etc.

[Prospero]

I aporeciate that, But you can't control what happens off site or in a hotel, parking lot, lunch break, at dinner, etc.

I know.  And that is a concern.

[CHA1N5]

This issue creates a very interesting tension for WotC, vis-a-vis the secondary value of their product.  They have a vested interest in keeping the secondary value of said product within a reasonable band of value.  Too low, and their product can't be sold for the profit they seek.  Too high, and it's a disincentive for customers to actually use the product for its intended purpose.

Sadly, this is another impediment to the long-term health of cardboard Vintage.

I'm glad the issue is getting discussion.

[AmbivalentDuck]

This story convinces me that I should proxy many high value cards as I can from here on out.  Ill probably use the max proxy limit at the NYSE event when I travel to New York.

I've been saying this for years. My cube never leaves my living room: it's full of foil/beta/promos/etc. My vintage decks? I proxy as many cards over $20 as the event allows. I remember an event where Soly proxied Null Rod onto a Mox by markering up the inner sleeve, I had 2 of my Badlands proxied in the same event.

Modern and Legacy have made our decks so obscenely expensive. $40 fetches, $160+ wb duals, $90 FoW...even after you're done proxying power and Drains, your deck is still worth many thousands of dollars. EDH decks can be especially obscene, too. I priced my decks at $2000 each using the cheapest, beater version of each card. I won't play them outside private homes anymore.

[personalbackfire]

This story convinces me that I should proxy many high value cards as I can from here on out.  Ill probably use the max proxy limit at the NYSE event when I travel to New York. 

This is an interesting thought and probably a "wise" one in terms of protecting your valuables. However, if it comes to this point what is the point in even owning the cards in the first place?

In addition, and probably can be talked about in a different thread but if a shift like this occurs (where people begin proxying power they own out of fear of getting it stolen), what does that mean for sanctioned vintage in the US? Personally speaking a lot of my motivation in owning power goes out the window if I won't use it in tournaments.

[Smmenen]

This story convinces me that I should proxy many high value cards as I can from here on out.  Ill probably use the max proxy limit at the NYSE event when I travel to New York. 

This is an interesting thought and probably a "wise" one in terms of protecting your valuables. However, if it comes to this point what is the point in even owning the cards in the first place?

I will play real cards at local tournaments/environments that I trust or Vintage Champs, but I no longer intend to travel with my power unless I have to.

[DubDub]

This issue creates a very interesting tension for WotC, vis-a-vis the secondary value of their product.  They have a vested interest in keeping the secondary value of said product within a reasonable band of value.  Too low, and their product can't be sold for the profit they seek.  Too high, and it's a disincentive for customers to actually use the product for its intended purpose.

Sadly, this is another impediment to the long-term health of cardboard Vintage.

I'm glad the issue is getting discussion.

I think this comment lumps together different groups of customers and products.

Still speaking broadly, WotC prefers 'Standard' players to 'Vintage' players, because 'Standard' players generate more revenue for them per capita (i.e. ignoring the relative size of the two communities).  They have little incentive to control the cost of eternal staples, for fear that cheaply available eternal formats would cannabalize their rotating/limited formats and hence reduce their profits.

One would expect that WotC would see how expensive Jace has become and immediately decide to capture some of that value.  How many copies could they sell as singles right off their website at $50?  How many could they effectively sell by building a Premium Deck Series or Commander product priced at $50 around him, with massive print run?  They're leaving that profit on the table by not making those moves.  And the calculations are no different for Underground Sea.

Except, if they put 20,000 more Jaces into circulation at $50 a pop, make a million dollars, does that mean ~5,000 more players get more invested into Legacy/Vintage and reduce their consumption of rotating formats?

Allowing some (mostly older and Reserved) cards to retain extremely high value is useful for them: it puts a pressure on players not to pay the one-time sticker price of Eternal, and instead to opt into formats that will generate more revenue for WotC in the long term.  Not to mention things like 'supporting' LGS's by printing extremely limited FTV/Commander's Arsenal/Modern Masters products that end up being sold at far above MSRP.

All of this is to say that I imagine theft of high-value cards was part of the public relations calculation made when they decided it was best for the company to empasize rotating formats over eternal formats.  I similarly imagine the cost of increased security at the events they run (a gesture made to reassure players they care about preventing theft) was included in the cost/benefit analysis behind allowing some (Reserved List cards, Jace, etc) cards to become highly attractive to thieves.

I fear that all too much, theft is an acceptable side-effect of their business plan.

[KingSquee]

All of this is to say that I imagine theft of high-value cards was part of the public relations calculation made when they decided it was best for the company to empasize rotating formats over eternal formats.  I similarly imagine the cost of increased security at the events they run (a gesture made to reassure players they care about preventing theft) was included in the cost/benefit analysis behind allowing some (Reserved List cards, Jace, etc) cards to become highly attractive to thieves.

I fear that all too much, theft is an acceptable side-effect of their business plan.

I was with you up until this. There is no way in hell Hasbro/WotC, or any reputable company, would consider theft on any scale acceptable.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Why? Someone who had the money to purchase singles now has to buy more. Someone who didn't have the money just entered the tourney scene. It's win-win for WotC. It's only when thieves immediately turn around and sell that cards that WotC comes out even.

Now forgery and free online play, those cost them money...

[Grand Inquisitor]

There is no way in hell Hasbro/WotC, or any reputable company, would consider theft on any scale acceptable.

Of course they would.  Condone it?  No.  Accept it?  What choice do they have?

MtG cards are no different than any other valuable portable object.  People with valuable things are always subject to the risks of criminals.  Certainly this is a concern for event organizers, but Hasbro?  C'mon.

My take is that people either weren't paying attention before or they're blowing this way out of proportion.

[KingSquee]

Maybe "acceptable" is the wrong word here. "Unfortunate," maybe.

I agree there's not much WotC can do about the status quo when it comes to absurd secondary market prices leading to more theft. The cure would be worse than the disease.

In the end, not much has changed. Watch your stuff at all times. Don't ask friends to watch your stuff. Don't bring so much bling to a tournament so as to make yourself a target. (To that end, I no longer trade at big events, and sadly I won't likely have a Vintage deck on me for a GP side event.)

Unfortunately, I'm sad to say these simple precautions haven't reached 100% penetration yet. After sitting down for Round 1 at this year's SCG Legacy Open in DC, my opponent checks in and asks if he can go use the bathroom. "Fine, go ahead," I said. "Can you watch my stuff?" "Um... I'd prefer you take it with you." I've never seen this person before in my life, and he's asking if I can watch what turns out to be his fairly expensive U/W Miracles deck? Ugh.

[Oath of Happy]

For what it's worth, I think this is an additional avenue of leverage on the Reserve list, and the general unstated policy of not-reprinting to reduce card value.  (Even Modern Masters has been described as a quite limited print run testing the waters for additional reprintings.)

Players have the right to tell large tournament organizers (SCG) and WotC that they're not willing to risk their safety or financial well-being to play a game.

Yes, the cards have always been meant to be collectible, but people are getting hurt and people are losing tens of thousands of dollars.  Why does that have a place in our game?

No ring of organized thieves is salivating over the chance to steal chess pieces.

Are you saying we should devalue cards so that people are less likely to steal them?

[hvndr3d y34r h3x]

For what it's worth, I think this is an additional avenue of leverage on the Reserve list, and the general unstated policy of not-reprinting to reduce card value.  (Even Modern Masters has been described as a quite limited print run testing the waters for additional reprintings.)

Players have the right to tell large tournament organizers (SCG) and WotC that they're not willing to risk their safety or financial well-being to play a game.

Yes, the cards have always been meant to be collectible, but people are getting hurt and people are losing tens of thousands of dollars.  Why does that have a place in our game?

No ring of organized thieves is salivating over the chance to steal chess pieces.

Are you saying we should devalue cards so that people are less likely to steal them?

Considering these are pieces of cardboard with no real unique or meaningful qualities, outside of pretending you some type of wizard, devaluing them seems not so insane.

[DubDub]

For what it's worth, I think this is an additional avenue of leverage on the Reserve list, and the general unstated policy of not-reprinting to reduce card value.  (Even Modern Masters has been described as a quite limited print run testing the waters for additional reprintings.)

Players have the right to tell large tournament organizers (SCG) and WotC that they're not willing to risk their safety or financial well-being to play a game.

Yes, the cards have always been meant to be collectible, but people are getting hurt and people are losing tens of thousands of dollars.  Why does that have a place in our game?

No ring of organized thieves is salivating over the chance to steal chess pieces.

Are you saying we should devalue cards so that people are less likely to steal them?

Yep.  That's ONE benefit of 'devaluing' cards.  The other benefit is that the barrier to entry would fall, so that: 6 person tournaments become 20, 16 becomes 40, and 50 becomes 200.

I mean, I'm in favor of having greater attendance and less theft.  Do you have some other priorities?

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

I personally enjoy my collection being worth a lot of $. Eventually when I cash out one day it's like a pay day haha. Be careful with your belongings and shit won't happen. Carry only what you need at all times. It's pretty easy if you ask me. If you're careless with your cards some asshole in this world might steal from you. But theft happens in all walks of life. I understand it sucks but it is what it is...

[DubDub]

You have every right to hold that view.  My view differs.

We are on a path where it's not unreasonable that we could see the first armed robbery during a small Legacy tournament at a local store in Anywhere, USA?  Four guys with four guns, ten minutes, 20 backpacks, ~$40,000.  There isn't much preventing that from happening except the 'special knowledge' needed to target Magic players.  Ask Eli Kassis if the thieves know who to target (though, my point is it could be any of us grouped up for a small tourney).  And I guess if something like that does happen, we'll hear statements like "they were so careless to go to a store without their-gun/a-silent-alarm/CCTV/knowing-Kung-Fu."

There is another path available to us that, yes, costs most of us some 'value', but if you wanted a risk-free investment you should have bought a United States Treasury Bond.  I don't see too many people walking around with shares of Apple stock in their pockets, but that's what we're all doing all the time!  Because our stocks are playing cards.  They're pieces to a game that, fundamentally, we do have to have on us.  I mean, for many of us, we could lock in 200% profit or more by selling out now, I know I've considered it, but if we choose to hold our cards (read: stocks) then we're open to future losses.  And that cost?  It probably reduces our level of theft/violence down to... say, Poker.  (The prizes at Poker tournaments are pretty big... and they use a $2.50 pack of playing cards you can buy at a gas station.)  It might just make for a bigger and better, and safer, game.

Look, I'm realistic, it's not going to happen.  Card values are going to continue to climb.  Period.  Wizards likes maintaining high value cards as a barrier to entry to the formats that are less profitable to them.  They sell shitty Duel Decks for $20, they're not gonna sell Vintage/Legacy legal 60-card decks with eight duals and eight fetches for $2.50 out of gas stations Target.  Their attempt at price controls, Modern Masters, is so limited it's ridiculous.  and that's for a format they claim they want to support.

But if/when an armed robbery occurs, remember, we'll all know we could have avoided it by treating game pieces as stocks.

Moreover, there is at least one way to moderately protect the value of collections while reducing card prices and increasing supply: like a stock split, have a redemption program where one UNL/REV Badlands gets you 2+ RPRT Badlands.  Have it be more drastic for cards with more limited print run: 10:1 for a Mox.  Wizards charges a nominal processing fee of $5.  Boom.  Done.  EZPZ.  Supply goes up, value is captured primarily by those who hold the value now.

[AmbivalentDuck]

There's an issue with the stock split: cards whose value comes from collectibility get even rarer and "unredeemed" cards' values skyrocket. What happens if even 5% of the Beta Lotuses leave circulation at the same time? It's not like their value comes from play: only a hundred or so of the many thousands of Beta Lotuses in print are actually played in sanctioned tourneys each year.

Conversely, Revised duals' values come from play value. Our best comparison might be to duel decks and event decks. Clifftop Retreat and Godless Shrine have both seen "extra" printings relative to other cards in their cycles with no depression in value. Conversely, Stoneforge Mystic's value was greatly deflated by 2x printing in an event deck. The lesson I take away from this is that there's a critical level of saturation beyond which a card's value plummets. Caw-Blade was far and away the best deck in its Standard and required 4x Mystic, but didn't inflate the card's value beyond ~$6.

So in practice, a "stock split" crashes/fails to affect the value of Legacy staples and must inevitably spike the value of Vintage collectibles.

[DubDub]

There's an issue with the stock split: cards whose value comes from collectibility get even rarer and "unredeemed" cards' values skyrocket.

Not seeing the issue here....

What happens if even 5% of the Beta Lotuses leave circulation at the same time? It's not like their value comes from play: only a hundred or so of the many thousands of Beta Lotuses in print are actually played in sanctioned tourneys each year.

Well, if an exchange set at 10:1 was in place, then a number of RPRT Loti equal to 50% of Beta's print run would enter players and collectors hands.  Still not seeing an issue.

Conversely, Revised duals' values come from play value. Our best comparison might be to duel decks and event decks. Clifftop Retreat and Godless Shrine have both seen "extra" printings relative to other cards in their cycles with no depression in value. Conversely, Stoneforge Mystic's value was greatly deflated by 2x printing in an event deck. The lesson I take away from this is that there's a critical level of saturation beyond which a card's value plummets. Caw-Blade was far and away the best deck in its Standard and required 4x Mystic, but didn't inflate the card's value beyond ~$6.

First off, it seems like you're addressing relative collector's value of different prints of functionally identical cards.

But if you compare the multiplier between REV, UNL, BET, and ALP Tropical Islands you can see it mostly stays the same.  I.e. when REV Tropical Island prices go up because of increased demand, the prices of Beta ones go up too.  The market is connected.  So have different split ratios for REV duals versus BET duals.

Also, Caw Blade did definitively drive the price of Stoneforges up to ~$18, so I don't know what you're talking about there.

So in practice, a "stock split" crashes/fails to affect the value of Legacy staples and must inevitably spike the value of Vintage collectibles.

There are two things at work here, there are the real market clearing prices, and then there are 'confidence' effects.  Simply announcing that the Reserve List has been killed would hurt confidence in card values, and hence card values themselves.  That confidence can be more thoroughly destroyed by a mass reprinting that drastically changes the market-clearing price.
First, with a redemption based stock split idea the new supply is not costless, and hence won't have as strong an effect on confidence.  There's a built-in exchange rate available to all.
Second, doing away with unbounded confidence affects can avert a price bubble.  If we're currently in a reinforcing pattern of positive reinforcement pushing prices up, without real demand changes (i.e. people are buying because they don't want to miss out) then the confidence premium isn't doing anything real, and piercing the bubble in a controlled way may be better than allowing it to burst.
Third, if we're just talking about the market clearing price/supply relationship, there can clearly be a middle ground between failing to do anything to the price and crashing the price completely.  Unless we really think the demand curve is very unusual, basically vertical at some level of supply satiation.  I think the burden of proof still lies with you to show that any reprint effort can only either have a marginal or massive effect.

[Samoht]

He was pointing out that the Event Deck brought the price back down to 6-8, much like Goblin Guide.

[DubDub]

It did also get banned in Standard...

[hvndr3d y34r h3x]

But if/when an armed robbery occurs, remember, we'll all know we could have avoided it by treating game pieces as stocks.

remember the thread about the murder?

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/120434-Florida-Man-Killed-for-His-Magic-Cards

[Oath of Happy]

For what it's worth, I think this is an additional avenue of leverage on the Reserve list, and the general unstated policy of not-reprinting to reduce card value.  (Even Modern Masters has been described as a quite limited print run testing the waters for additional reprintings.)

Players have the right to tell large tournament organizers (SCG) and WotC that they're not willing to risk their safety or financial well-being to play a game.

Yes, the cards have always been meant to be collectible, but people are getting hurt and people are losing tens of thousands of dollars.  Why does that have a place in our game?

No ring of organized thieves is salivating over the chance to steal chess pieces.

Are you saying we should devalue cards so that people are less likely to steal them?

Yep.  That's ONE benefit of 'devaluing' cards.  The other benefit is that the barrier to entry would fall, so that: 6 person tournaments become 20, 16 becomes 40, and 50 becomes 200.

I mean, I'm in favor of having greater attendance and less theft.  Do you have some other priorities?

I'm not even going to justify this with a response.  You're silly

[Purple Hat]

I've actually been wondering why they don't print new art new background versions of all the super valuable cards.  Serious collectors would still want the original cards, and their value would stay significant on the collector's market since they are still just as rare in their original version just like how beta power and duals maintain their prices.  The alt art would make the cards instantly recognizable as reprints from even a casual glance, unlike UL vs. Revised, but there would be legit versions of all the cards you want at $20 bucks or so.  Just print them in a special edition that was only legal in eternal formats.  They've already got all the alt art for the power cards from the gencon prizes. 

Wizards gets more money by selling the special editions, players get cheap versions of valuable cards to decrease the risk of theft and barriers to entry, collectors face minimal damage because the new cards are only functionally identical to the old cards, but are clearly the cheap knockoff version....everybody wins.  Seems like a no brainer.  I think they could even argue their way out of the reserve list issue since they have always maintained that they could print functionally identical cards.

[AmbivalentDuck]

What happens if even 5% of the Beta Lotuses leave circulation at the same time? It's not like their value comes from play: only a hundred or so of the many thousands of Beta Lotuses in print are actually played in sanctioned tourneys each year.

Well, if an exchange set at 10:1 was in place, then a number of RPRT Loti equal to 50% of Beta's print run would enter players and collectors hands.  Still not seeing an issue.

Beta Loti are veblen goods. Putting a bunch of reprints onto the market in a way that decreases the number of originals only spikes the price of the originals. Very few Loti are actually played, and the reprints function no differently than the $0 proxies already in widespread use.

[DubDub]

Do another Zendikar hidden treasures with the Loti collected.  Problem solved?  (Yes.). Not to mention, for players' purposes, reprints coming from redeemed UNL Loti are just as useful.  It's not like only Beta Loti exist...
And, obviously, the differences with proxies is that a) they wouldn't cost 0$, and b) they would be legal for sanctioned tournament play.  So... not relevant.