Jace the Mind Sculptor FTV20

[dtomcej]

So JTMS is confirmed to be reprinted in FTV20.

Thoughts?

Source: http://www.examiner.com/article/jace-the-mind-scultptor-to-be-reprinted-from-the-vault-twenty

[msg67183]

Pick them up while you can? Haha

[tito del monte]

Well, although a reprint of big Jace is certainly welcome, I think the problem with this news is that would seem preclude either Force of Will or Mana Drain from being in the the set - I can't imagine they would print more than one money card, nor more than one headline blue card. Clearly, Force of Will or Mana Drain would have been more desirable reprints for enticing anyone to give Legacy or Vintage a try.

I understand the role of FTV isn't exactly to get people into the older formats, but it is one of the best outlets has for upping supply of eternal card without rocking the boat too hugely.

[Meddling Mike]

I'm hoping that this gives access to some cheap Jaces so I can finally pick up a set of them. It's a shame that the MSRP isn't a real thing.

[KrauserKrauser]

Frantically running around trying to get some preorders.  Dont think I am going to have much luck.

[DubDub]

This won't do anything to prices.  Sad.

I want to be encouraged that the door was opened at all and that a few Jaces slipped out.  But I'm not.  If you want to play Vintage or Legacy, the barrier is as high as it's ever been, and only continuing to rise.

[KrauserKrauser]

This will bring around 60-100,000 foil Jaces into the market as allocations are reported to be larger than your typical FTV.  Seeing reports of 20 for flagship retailers and 10 for normal.  That will be validated once orders are allowed, but this is a significant number of Jaces being introduced into the environment. 

I still need three of the bad boys and the possibility of picking them up for 80-100 instead of 150 (or 500+ for real foils) makes my excited for the product.

[Sextiger]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

See: Tarmogoyf and Modern Masters.

[quicksilvervii]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

See: Tarmogoyf and Modern Masters.

If my information is correct, Goyf's price actually went up since MM.

[Meddling Mike]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

That might have been a bit of a panic reaction to the Jace spoiler. They've already leveled off a bit. Here's some you can preorder on eBay for $350/ea. I think that introducing more Jaces will have some effect on the price. The amount of them in circulation is garbage because of the short window for Worldwake and the Zen/Zen/Worldwake then triple ROE draft formats.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

See: Tarmogoyf and Modern Masters.

If my information is correct, Goyf's price actually went up since MM.

Exactly. A tiny reprint tells the market that another, more massive reprint is not around the corner. See Mutavault prices for a comparison. Large scale vs small scale reprints have extremely opposite effects.

[vaughnbros]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

60k of a card that is only legal in eternal is not a completely laughable number.  Thats 15k more players that can now assemble a play set.  It may not lower the price, but it will certainly reduce its incline.

[Norm4eva]

After speaking with some store owners and trying to suss it out with people smarter than I am, I've come to think the issue of 'Jace-like' reprints on the cost of the card is described in this way -

a) A limited run set comes out; suckers buy packs or win packs and crack them and one of out every N opens the chase.  Goyf, Jace, whatever.
b) Of those suckers, X suckers just acquired their first chase.
c) Of those, Y will work to assemble the playset.
d) Of those, we have the unrepentant crack-packers, and the singles buyers. Forget the crackers; they're stuck in a hopeless cycle.
e) Singles buyers go looking to vendors to complete their playset.
f) Vendors already had demand before the limited set was released; now there's more.
g) Because each card is unique (original art, expansion symbol, and so on) they are priceable as separate items.  However, because they are also the same (they function the same within the game regardless of all these factors, now even moreso thanks City in a Bottle) they can also be priced as being the same item.  "old" version need not change in price point because demand is up; "new" version is a limited run and may as well go for more, but never needs to go for less than the old one because it is literally no different in-game.
f) The price has nowhere to go but up.

Barring a huge reprint cycle, the price literally never needs to drop on the most critical cards.  BoP took years of reprints and eventual functional replacement at the hands of Noble Hierarch to turn into a $3 card.  And that was "just Birds of Paradise" - we're looking at Goyfs and Jaces and shit.  No chance the price drops.  Outside like a total collapse of the game, or like massive unfounded bannings, the price of such cards is totally secure.  It never has to change.

[Smmenen]

This will be interesting for a number of reasons.   Foil Jace reprint is like reprinting Time Walk here.  I don't expect jace's price to fall at all, though.

[Guli]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

See: Tarmogoyf and Modern Masters.

If my information is correct, Goyf's price actually went up since MM.

Exactly. A tiny reprint tells the market that another, more massive reprint is not around the corner. See Mutavault prices for a comparison. Large scale vs small scale reprints have extremely opposite effects.

Can the same be said about Dark Confidant?

[quicksilvervii]

Each store is gonna get like 20 or 30 boxes tops, 60k is a laughable number.  Prices will not change at all, preorders are at 450 ATM with only 6 cards spoiled.

See: Tarmogoyf and Modern Masters.

If my information is correct, Goyf's price actually went up since MM.

Exactly. A tiny reprint tells the market that another, more massive reprint is not around the corner. See Mutavault prices for a comparison. Large scale vs small scale reprints have extremely opposite effects.

Can the same be said about Dark Confidant?

Yes, the same holds true if you look at the price.

[Sextiger]

Jace reprint will definitely cause more people to call for his unbanning in modern, which should happen if wizards wants that format to grow. 

[DubDub]

Jace reprint will definitely cause more people to call for his unbanning in modern, which should happen if wizards wants that format to grow. 

Except that his already astronomical price would shoot the moon with the additional demand, so they won't (and can't without causing a PR backlash).

[AmbivalentDuck]

Wizards favors our equivalent of bankers. Mythics create volatility which in turn favors people who can predict the market's future. Ie. Planeswalkers come out high and then most fall rapidly, advantaging people who "short" them. Stores that do large volume seem proficient at this. In turn, it's in their best interest to promote Magic as a TCG.
-Sitting on cardstock isn't an awful investment
-Trading on derivatives (taking long/short positions) is possible for "institutional" investors who in turn promote it via local tourneys (and must to keep transaction costs low).
-Chase, high value cards drive the opening of many more boxes than would otherwise be opened since stores won't crack packs themselves unless the expected value of the pack is lower than the expected value of the cards in it.

Modern Masters makes sense in this context it assures the market that:
-Sitting on cardboard remains wise (hoarding drives up prices)
-They should take long positions on even newly printed cards that may become astronomical in price
-They should continue opening sealed product


This is all essentially a fiat currency, though, as Wizards can print a million Jaces/Mana Drains/Goyfs at will. Value is in the context of a game they control and scarcity they also control.

[DubDub]

-Trading on derivatives (taking long/short positions)

This is not what derivatives are.

Modern Masters makes sense in this context it assures the market that:
-Sitting on cardboard remains wise (hoarding drives up prices)
-They should take long positions on even newly printed cards that may become astronomical in price
-They should continue opening sealed product

To be clear, it's the small size of the MM print run (and also the abnormally high MSRP) that provides these signals Duck indicates.

This is all essentially a fiat currency, though, as Wizards can print a million Jaces/Mana Drains/Goyfs at will. Value is in the context of a game they control and scarcity they also control.

Indeed, which is partially why it's so frustrating.  The view of Wizards as the impartial Fed Reserve falls down when you remember that THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A PROFIT MAXIMIZING ENTITY.  They perform, through FTV in particular this 'gifting' to brick and mortar shops, and the reserve list is a 'gift' to holders of old+valuable cards, but where are the gifts for the actual players?

[AmbivalentDuck]

-Trading on derivatives (taking long/short positions)

This is not what derivatives are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)#Usage

Speculate and make a profit if the value of the underlying asset moves the way they expect (e.g. moves in a given direction, stays in or out of a specified range, reaches a certain level)

Betting on movement in the value of a commodity requires derivatives and/or large holdings.

Indeed, which is partially why it's so frustrating.  The view of Wizards as the impartial Fed Reserve falls down when you remember that THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A PROFIT MAXIMIZING ENTITY.  They perform, through FTV in particular this 'gifting' to brick and mortar shops, and the reserve list is a 'gift' to holders of old+valuable cards, but where are the gifts for the actual players?

Duel decks mostly.

[DubDub]

-Trading on derivatives (taking long/short positions)

This is not what derivatives are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)#Usage

Speculate and make a profit if the value of the underlying asset moves the way they expect (e.g. moves in a given direction, stays in or out of a specified range, reaches a certain level)

Betting on movement in the value of a commodity requires derivatives and/or large holdings.

You seem to have missed the point, which is stated in the first line of the wikipedia entry you found: "A derivative is a financial instrument which derives its value from the value of underlying entities such as an asset, index, or interest rate—it has no intrinsic value in itself."

Taking long/short positions (which, I'm not aware of anyone shorting Magic cards; certainly vendors can try to sell out before a predicted price collapse, but they aren't in the habit of continuing to sell when they have no stock with the promise to fill the order later) is trading on assets themselves, not derivatives.  You even say "and/or large holdings," yet you don't recognize that buying/selling actual assets is the entirety of the action in the MTG card market?  Saying both "trading on derivatives (taking long/short positions)" and "derivatives and/or large holdings" is a clear indicator that you're using an incorrect definition of derivative.  As I pointed out.

A derivative could be used in a case where neither party actually owns a Jace the Mind Sculptor, yet they bet on the future value of JTMS.  No asset need change hands, both parties just agree to a contract (bet) about a characteristic of the asset(s) in question (typically, the price).  I think the FTV printing will cause the price of the WWK non-foil to go down 20%, you think only 5%.  If we're both confident in our predictions then we might want to make a wager.

Indeed, which is partially why it's so frustrating.  The view of Wizards as the impartial Fed Reserve falls down when you remember that THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A PROFIT MAXIMIZING ENTITY.  They perform, through FTV in particular this 'gifting' to brick and mortar shops, and the reserve list is a 'gift' to holders of old+valuable cards, but where are the gifts for the actual players?

Duel decks mostly.

I suppose you could say a thank-you is in order for Sorin vs. Tibalt, keeping Sorin's price tethered to ~$20-25, but besides that?  It's been 3 years since Elspeth vs Tezzeret (which I am admittedly glad I bought four of at the time) and many of them are duds full of chaff.  Probably Pro Tour/GP cards are a better example since they go directly to players, many stores would sell a Duel Deck above MSRP if able.

[AmbivalentDuck]

buying/selling actual assets is the entirety of the action in the MTG card market?

Futures are a form of derivative. Preorders are probably the most common and clearest example.

[DubDub]

buying/selling actual assets is the entirety of the action in the MTG card market?

Futures are a form of derivative. Preorders are probably the most common and clearest example.

Futures are actions in a commodity market.  Preorders can't be actions in a commodity market, because the asset is not (yet) a commodity, it hasn't even been released yet!  You would need pre-orders and orders to exist at the same time to start constructing an argument, which obviously doesn't happen for Magic cards (where it does for, say, pork bellies or frozen orange juice).  Moreover, pre-orders are made by customers and taken by stores, there isn't a mass of actors trying to predict the final sale price for the purpose of being right, it's about transfering actual assets (upon release) to those who actually desire them and will consume them.  Not a derivative.

Your initial statement equated derivatives and long/short positions, which was incorrect.  You're now saying that "a form of derivatives," futures, look like pre-orders, which is closer to being correct, but you're moving the goalposts on my initial correction.

***

Separately, it seems like you were trying to make the point that SCG manipulated the market for Legacy staples by buying such staples, and then creating the SCG5K series with Legacy ~40 weeks a year to stir demand.  Which they did.  But that 'bet' they made that they could exercise market power to bully the price upwards did not amount to a derivative trade.  Fundamentally they traded on assets themselves.

In comparison, there was recently a NYT article about some actions Goldman took in the Aluminum market where they deliberately slowed down supply to raise prices AND separately made bets in the derivatives market that prices would rise.  Implicit bets through long positions AND actual bets, a combination which doesn't occur in the MTG market.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Futures and shorting are essentially the same mechanism: an agreement to deliver a commodity at a later date regardless of the future value of the commodity.

I'm not sure what your understanding of a derivative is, but we can usually preorder sealed product well before we have any good estimate of expected value of the cards it contains. Similarly, one store can place a large number of preorders to others. That is, a preorder amounts to selling futures while buying up preorders amounts to taking a "long" position.

I don't see how you can argue that preorders aren't futures. I pay money now to get a commodity later whether it's gained or lost value at that time.

[DubDub]

Futures and shorting are essentially the same mechanism: an agreement to deliver a commodity at a later date regardless of the future value of the commodity.

I'm not sure what your understanding of a derivative is, but we can usually preorder sealed product well before we have any good estimate of expected value of the cards it contains. Similarly, one store can place a large number of preorders to others. That is, a preorder amounts to selling futures while buying up preorders amounts to taking a "long" position.

I don't see how you can argue that preorders aren't futures. I pay money now to get a commodity later whether it's gained or lost value at that time.

You keep using the word commodity, which doesn't apply to a product only available in the form of a pre-order.

Tangentially, the pre-order price is usually dictated by the MSRP, which is, I would say, generally a good estimate of expected value of the cards contained.  (Except in cases like FTV where the MSRP isn't an attempt to predict market price, because the product is meant to be a gift to brick&mortars.)

[AmbivalentDuck]

I can sell futures on a new varietal of corn. There's none to deliver until the future comes up, but it's still a future.