Figured there had to be shills and fake buyers, but oh well.
As to the pick itself, I would say that for any of us, its +EV to take the goyf because the Burst Lightning probably doesn't up your win % enough to generate more value than the $250-$300 instant boost you get from taking foil Tarmogoyf.
However, for Pascal, the math is a little different because of being a pro. Even though the immediate value of foil Tarmogoyf is still higher than the extra prize money you might win by picking Burst Lightning, when you consider marketing and writing opportunities, Platinum Pro status and just the overall boost to his brand, the value from winning goes way beyond just the prize money. In that context, even though the change to his win % is small, he is probably correct to play for that because his top end if he wins the thing goes far beyond the prize money.
There's a pretty
well-traveled article that disagrees with the notion that borrowing against a win is worth the money, either the past or present you could expect to accrue, as opposed to just literally picking money up off the table. One snippet in particular stands out, but on the whole the article dismisses the notion of professional Magic altogether, to say nothing of the money:
11.
To get better at Magic is to realize that average Magic writer is not someone worth listening to. To go to the PT for the first time is to realize how bad most everyone else is, and how bad you are, too. It may not even matter if you’re good — you’ll usually do badly. You likely tested with two or three other people in the same position and thereby ceded a massive edge to the big-name teams. You probably didn’t have much time to draft online or in paper and thereby made a bunch of Limited mistakes you’d eliminate with practice. You might have left your best cards at home when you wanted to audible, or you might have gotten in the day before to fight through jet-lag on the order of a Jäger-bomb hangover.
The prizes are tiny. Only 18 percent of competitors cash. The cash often takes months to arrive. If the standings were randomized, your expected payout would be a hair over $600. In practice, it is much lower.
I read the article, but I didn't actually see anything that would indicate that it's wrong to pass up immediate value for greater future value. CML takes a very cynical line, and its true that the prize payouts are not where they should be, but no matter how miserable that guy is, it doesn't change the fact that Pascal stood to make more money off a win from revenue streams that extend beyond the prize payout, and these opportunities do not extend equally to all participants.
I personally would take the money, so should most. The article does provide some interesting reasons as to why most people probably shouldn't aspire to the kind of lifestyle that would allow you to fully capitalize on the win, but Pascal has made a choice and is already entrenched in the system. He already made the decision that CML says is a bad one.
Beyond whether or not one should aspire to be a magic pro, the decision on the foil goyf boils down to whether or not over thousands of identical runs one choice makes more $ than the other.
