[Free Article] The Magic Online Power Nine Challenge Metagame (really)

[Smmenen]

Not just the top 16. This is the whole thing. A little data analysis as well. Enjoy!

http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-magic-online-p9-challenge-metagame-analysis/

[Lilium]

Much appreciated and very well done. Thank you.

[Montolio]

Good work Steve and thanks for taking the time to do this.
Storm has only increased it's presence on MTGO since this event.
Having played in several DE's since the P9 Challenge I am seeing Storm twice an event on average (Wednesday 3/4 rounds).
With the decline in Shops there is little repercussions in running the deck.
These P9 events are amazing and I think Vintage is blooming on modo since their inception!

[desolutionist]

Hey Steve, thanks for the shoutout despite my 2-2 performance! I hope someone else takes the reigns on the Erayo deck since the design is still in it's infancy. 

[Smmenen]

Thanks guys. I hope someone else does this for the next one (hint hint).

[desolutionist]

I actually didn't even know the games could be replayed.  Years ago, they could be replayed all week long, but MTGO has had some major face lifts and at one time it was impossible to replay any game.

Originally, Top 8 PE deck lists weren't posted and you would have to spend a lot of time watching the replays of MTGO Extended tournaments just to get the deck lists (Or as much as could be seen) Not surprisingly, this is where I noticed LSV (Before he was famous).  He and a few others, such as Ffreak, were continually winning big tournaments. Eventually you could count on someone posting data on the message boards. And MTGO has come a long way since then.

Anyway, combing through all that is dedication.  Maybe we can get a robot to do it?  MTGO Goldfish analyzes thousands of games of limited.  So the same can be done for Vintage.

[Smmenen]

Robot intelligence, being what it is, is a bit limited.  MTG goldfish has some wonky classification taxonomies.  I'd prefer a human, as imperfect as we are.  A robot however would be great to suck up all of the results and analyze them, once classifications have been made.

I more had in mind the hopes that another writer (like IslandSwamp) would do what I just did.  He wrote an article that purported to assess the metagame, but was actually just the top 16.  This would be a good monthly column topic for anyone so inclined.  I am not.   In fact, this is only the 4th article I've published so far this year, not counting the "open letter".  (I have spent a good deal of time, however, working on my Gush book and unpublished Old School series).  

I will not do this again; but I hope someone else does. 

[ajfirecracker]

Great work Stephen!

I take it as a given that we will see a top-tier Workshops deck and that this will weaken Storm, even if only by eating sideboard space. I'm curious where the metagame will settle, especially in terms of blue control sideboards. If Shops and Dredge calibrate to eat close to half of the sideboard each (as they often have) that makes it a lot harder for controlling decks to orient around beating Storm.

[Thiim]

Good job putting all this together, it's nice to have it all in one place

[Islandswamp]

Robot intelligence, being what it is, is a bit limited.  MTG goldfish has some wonky classification taxonomies.  I'd prefer a human, as imperfect as we are.  A robot however would be great to suck up all of the results and analyze them, once classifications have been made.

I more had in mind the hopes that another writer (like IslandSwamp) would do what I just did.  He wrote an article that purported to assess the metagame, but was actually just the top 16.  This would be a good monthly column topic for anyone so inclined.  I am not.   In fact, this is only the 4th article I've published so far this year, not counting the "open letter".  (I have spent a good deal of time, however, working on my Gush book and unpublished Old School series).  

I will not do this again; but I hope someone else does. 

The best way to accomplish this would be to just talk to me. I've never done a full metagame analysis like you have here, but I did at least try and I used all the info I could freely obtain from MTGGoldfish. I've never asked them for more info, but that might be something I can do, it depends on them really.

I haven't been able to play in any of the events, so I definitely was not able to sit and watch the replays. I'd have to get the info some other way most likely.

I'm sorry if my article was a let-down for you, that was not my intent whatsoever.

[Smmenen]

Good job putting all this together, it's nice to have it all in one place

Your deck disappeared from other results, so the editor had to dig it up somewhere. 

[desolutionist]

What I meant is a robot can watch the replays and record the cards played by each player. The human can then put it into context.  There are robots that execute Salvagers loops and trades; a replay watching robot is very possible and probably already exists.

[Islandswamp]

What I meant is a robot can watch the replays and record the cards played by each player. The human can then put it into context.  There are robots that execute Salvagers loops and trades; a replay watching robot is very possible and probably already exists.

https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/3scfoz/wizards_has_requested_that_mtggoldfish_no_longer/

Check out this thread, it should shed some light on the issue. I didn't know they had a bot that could do this until a short while ago and I found out on Twitter, nobody from the website told me.

[Smmenen]

wow, that's *awful*.

They can't actually ask someone to do that, can they?

[Islandswamp]

wow, that's *awful*.

They can't actually ask someone to do that, can they?

Technically probably not , but every single bot on mtgo whether it trades or records data violates the TOS and could get banned at will.

[desolutionist]

This reminds me of the reason they only post the results of one daily per day: to prevent the format being solved

[brianpk80]

This is an extremely valuable article and service performed for the community.  I'm grateful for the dedication put into keeping a robust and healthy amount of data available for my favorite format, Vintage.  And thank you for the kind words regarding my Mentor list.  One of the sites out there I believe has the decklist wrong, and the one linked to should have -1 Tropical Island, -1 Tundra, -1 Sol Ring and +2 Volcanic Island, +1 Preordain.  I thoroughly enjoyed the article.  I also think Shawn's Erayo list is very intriguing and was glad to read about it. 

-Brian

[JACO]

This is an extremely valuable article and service performed for the community.  I'm grateful for the dedication put into keeping a robust and healthy amount of data available for my favorite format, Vintage.  And thank you for the kind words regarding my Mentor list.  One of the sites out there I believe has the decklist wrong, and the one linked to should have -1 Tropical Island, -1 Tundra, -1 Sol Ring and +2 Volcanic Island, +1 Preordain.  I thoroughly enjoyed the article.  I also think Shawn's Erayo list is very intriguing and was glad to read about it. 

-Brian

Fixed numbers on decklist, thank you for that info!

[ObstinateFamiliar]

wow, that's *awful*.

They can't actually ask someone to do that, can they?

Sure, they can *ask* and perhaps incentivize people to do what they want. *Forcing* people to do (or not do) something turns out to be quite a bit harder. Hopefully wizards is aware of this and is just trying to bandaid the situation while they figure out a better solution. For instance, they might be trying to figure out how to design a standard format that is "unsolvable" in a practical sense -- which obviously might take some time.

Of course, they might also just think they can tell people to stop and it will work. Who knows? Maybe this time...

[Smmenen]

This is an extremely valuable article and service performed for the community.  I'm grateful for the dedication put into keeping a robust and healthy amount of data available for my favorite format, Vintage.  And thank you for the kind words regarding my Mentor list.  One of the sites out there I believe has the decklist wrong, and the one linked to should have -1 Tropical Island, -1 Tundra, -1 Sol Ring and +2 Volcanic Island, +1 Preordain.  I thoroughly enjoyed the article.  I also think Shawn's Erayo list is very intriguing and was glad to read about it. 

-Brian

The list I linked to was in the EE 3 thread, FYI.

I tried to highlight some things that fell outside of the top 16, since those already got attention and analysis. 

wow, that's *awful*.

They can't actually ask someone to do that, can they?

Sure, they can *ask* and perhaps incentivize people to do what they want. *Forcing* people to do (or not do) something turns out to be quite a bit harder. Hopefully wizards is aware of this and is just trying to bandaid the situation while they figure out a better solution. For instance, they might be trying to figure out how to design a standard format that is "unsolvable" in a practical sense -- which obviously might take some time.

Of course, they might also just think they can tell people to stop and it will work. Who knows? Maybe this time...

This kind of heavy-handed approach is an approach we've seen Wizards take in the past.   It's disquieting, to say the least.  Especially since Wizards seems to believe in suppressing information for "the good of the game."   I also think it gives the game too little credit to think that publishing data diminishes the game.  Sad.