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Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Morphling, Torchling, Thornling, ??, ??
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on: March 03, 2009, 08:52:20 pm
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Sinling 3BB  : Target creature other than Sinling becomes 0/2 until end of turn.  : Sinling gains Fear : Counter target spell or ability that targets Sinling unless its controler pays 2 life. : -1/+1  : +1/-1 This is a very interesting ability with a small bluffing element built into it. With 3 B open for the Sinling owner, is it worth it to the spell caster to pay the 2 life with the knowledge that the ability to activate it several more times? Lots of opportunity to outplay with this card...
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Eternal Formats / Creative / Re: Conflux/Dream Halls combo deck?
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on: January 04, 2009, 10:38:52 pm
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The more colors you run, the worse Dream Halls gets. Well actually--the more gold cards you run, the better Dream Halls gets. Running all these random wishes seems sketchy at best. So are you advocating putting more Conflux in the deck then? If that answer is yes, then I will gladly discuss the much greater utility of Glittering Wish over Conflux. If that answer is no, then move on and quit trolling the thread. All I am proposing is that there is deck design space that allows for including Conflux without including it in the maindeck. That point was not mentioned earlier in discussion. Another possible design angle--is it possible to fit Dream Halls into a Rector shell?
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Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: Fun with Math: Probabilities
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on: October 13, 2008, 11:14:40 pm
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I think we should build our decks with probability in mind even with the understanding that it will take many many games to see the positive benefits. I'm not sure what positive benefits you are referencing here because you can not "train" your deck to operate in "deterministic" mode through repetition. It may very well be that all your test games with the deck present you with a perfect 40% chance of drawing a least 1 Force or Will in your opening 7, but all your tournament games have the 4 Force of Will always on the bottom of your deck. In spite of the number of games you have played with the deck, both deck state functions* are perfectly--and probabilistically--valid. *This is a construct I have put together as a result of too many graduate level engineering classes to try to mathematically quantify the Magic deck. I'd be glad to talk about it some more if there is interest.
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Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: Fun with Math: Probabilities
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on: October 13, 2008, 07:24:22 pm
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True, but this is no different than card counting in blackjack. Card counters still pick deviations from basic strategy based upon probabilistic outcomes because inevitability will eventually win over variance and fluctuations to get that 2% edge over the house (assuming you are consistent in keeping the correct count.) I don't think anybody here is expecting anything different. The impact of variation with a Magic deck is very different from a standard deck(s) in Blackjack due to the different nature of the games. First, Blackjack games are much quicker than Magic. This means that a good Blackjack player can expect results that are much closer to the deterministic probabilities. Of course there is still variation with the Blackjack deck, but the increased number of hands reduces the variation of the long term play probabilities as compared to Magic games. Second, with Blackjack the expectation of good play results in hands not played. Magic doesn't hand an analogue to this. So if a good player is dealt 16's all evening, you can cut your losses as a night of bad beats and still wear the "good player" title. With Magic, every game you play is important towards advancing in the tournament. So if you are dealt the same "16's" all evening, you can talking about it with the rest of the 0-X's that are out of the tournament.
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Eternal Formats / Miscellaneous / Re: Fun with Math: Probabilities
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on: October 13, 2008, 05:31:47 pm
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I have no idea what HYPNO GEO DIST is. Maybe some Microsoft function. How did you calculate your probabilities without the Hyper Geometric Distribution? Anyways, having probabilities like these is useful because it lets you think about how to construct a deck with better numbers. Sure, Ponder changes things as does the ability of the opponent to counter. But you can only dig for so much in a combo deck -- you need to ensure that a certain threshold falls into your hand, and let your draw spells find the missing pieces. 1. Your game results will only approach these probabilities over a VERY large number of games. 2. On the short term (in "game to game" time), the stochastic deck variations will drive your results.
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Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Best Movies of 2007
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on: December 29, 2007, 04:59:56 pm
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In retrospect, 2007 had some really good Westerns in it. I think No Country for Old Men really hit my western nerve. Also I thoroughly enjoyed The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Great epic movie. After it, Im almost convinced the Brad Pitt can act. Almost.
I also REALLY want to see There Will Be Blood, but it doesnt look to be making wide release until sometime in early 2008 (I hope!). Daniel Day Lewis + Western is the recipe for success to me. Its getting good reviews, so hopefully it will live up to the hype.
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Vintage Community Discussion / Casual Forum / Re: Toshiro Umezawa
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on: July 20, 2007, 08:47:56 pm
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I had a fun deck with it that was based on instants+Toshiro+Forbidden Orchard+Night of Souls Betrayal. When it worked, it was great. When it didnt, you got a quick reminder about playing flashy things over stable ones.
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Vintage Community Discussion / General Community Discussion / Re: Master of Science
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on: March 06, 2007, 06:25:18 am
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Hmm, OK. But that really wasn't the question. Since the point is exacly TO advertise my education level (my degree needs to be on the card - besideswhich I already told you it's common practice over here) Thats not the role of business cards stateside. Business cards are primarily tools to 1. quickly find a POC for a given company. or 2. quickly find a POC for a given company division or SBU. Neither of these options have anything to do with advertising your education level or yourself for that matter. quotes fixed. - Bram
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