[Deck] Charbelcher Combo 2004

[frimble]

My main deck is identical to Lucentspirit's, as we have built it together:  2 Cylix and 2 Welder's.  We have slightly different sideboards, though.  He runs Gemstone Mine,where I have City of Brass.  He has Duress, currently where I have Negators - thanks to Dulmen.

The Cylixes make for stability and later targets to weld or tinker.

Lucentspirit says that Gemstone is fine as he won't need it more than three times cause he's gonna win by then.  I say that if I am Wishing for a land, then I could be in this one for the long haul and may need it for more turns (against control).  Why limit your options when you don't have to?

_____________________________ ___
I have attempted to build the most consistantly 1st/2nd-turn killing combo deck I could.  The original deck I built with 2-land Belcher killed on the second turn.  The newest build kills on the second turn.  I think all I have done is make it more consistant to do so.  I also want to be able to win on the fourth or fifth turn depending on disruption against me.  I like decks that can win - it doesn't matter to me if that win comes now or next turn or the turn after that.  

There are 2 ways this deck will win, as I see it.  Either it'll win BEFORE the opponent can deal with it (get out the hate), or it'll win AFTER the opponent gets out the hate.  The AFTER route is a lot more difficult, and this the only reason I see as a need for the Living Wishes.  This is why I don't like them - 'cause they are planning for your inability to kill them quicker than they can get out the Null Rod (for ex.)  However, if the Wishes are not there, then you have no chance of winning the AFTER route.  I see them as a necassary evil.

_____________________________ ___
As for the Force of Will thing, there is not nearly enough blue to warrent their use and they slow down the deck's opperations as they will dilute the rest of the deck  both by being there instead of 4 others and with the addition of the "extra", "lesser" blue cards.  I say, to improve the first turn, roll higher numbers  

[BreathWeapon]

With out FoW, this deck will prove to be nothing more than a bland 50/50 shot vs Prison decks at best. It needs to be able to tip the scales in some fashion. Any deck that requires the die roll to circumvent hate is going to prove inconsistant in the field, and inconsistancey is as good as being dead.

As it stands, this deck doesn't have anything to justify itself over Twister.dec It has equally common hate, roughly the same speed and less disruption. Something has to be done to tackle those issues if Belcher is going to become a respectable deck.

[Lamanai]

I haven't played this deck, but it's looking really strong to me, so I think I'm going to give it a shot.  So I may be way off-base here, but I think this may be the place for Serum Powder to finally show its face in Type 1.  Has anyone tried this?  What do y'all think?

[frimble]

As it stands, this deck doesn't have anything to justify itself over Twister.dec It has equally common hate, roughly the same speed and less disruption. Something has to be done to tackle those issues if Belcher is going to become a respectable deck.

Yes it does.  A Belcher Kill is sooo much neater thatn Twister.dec's.

This deck is a Top 8 Deck, not what I'd call a winning deck.  50/50 against Prison is fine by me when I go 100/0 gainst an ever-increasing field of Aggro decks.  I started working of this deck as a new way of being competitive.  Lucentspirit and I cut the Duresses when we noticed that they were slowing down the win.

With out FoW, this deck will prove to be nothing more than a bland 50/50 shot vs Prison decks at best. It needs to be able to tip the scales in some fashion. Any deck that requires the die roll to circumvent hate is going to prove inconsistant in the field, and inconsistancey is as good as being dead.

The deck ran out of room to fit in FoW's.  and to fit them in, we go back to the drawing-board for more lue to do it.  More blue means less black or less red or fewer artifacts or less green.

Red gives Welders and Wheel
Black gives fast mana and search
the artifacts are there to make up for only having 2 land (a rather unstable mana base  :lol:  ) and the ability to convert the colors into useable ones.
Green gives acceleration and mana to use.

I am having trouble getting rid of any of these to fit in cards that won't be consistantly usable (read: no other blue card in hand).  Perhaps a completely different build of belcher is needed.  Maybe we need to approach the deck with a Mostly Blue base.  Is there any way we can cut the majority of Black out of te deck with blue as the replacement??  Is there a way to cut the majority of the Green with blue replacements??

[Lucentspirit]

If someone were to take cards out to put in FoW they should be the 2 living wish and the 2 goblin welders. They are the only cards that don't effect the decks ability to go off turn 1.

However, if you decide to run a deck with 12 blue cards and 4 of those cards are FoW. The chance of you drawing a FoW and another blue card in your opening hand are below 15%.

[Jhaggs]

I have been tinkering with the FOW as well.  In order to increase the blue card count what are everyon's thoughts about cunning wish?  ALthough they maybe too mana intensive, they can provide the ability to deal with the dreaded hate.  Has anyone tried this yet?

[frimble]

I can't help but to think that by trying to add Force of Wil (thus more blue) we are slowing the deck down by a turn.  If this ends up true, then we might as well be playin WGD combo :shock:

As they say about driving... Speed kills.  and that is what Belcher has over other combo decks as it stands...

I don't want to quash development at all.  It just seems counterintuitive to try to slow a deck to add unreliable protection.  Maybe a separation of the deck into a more controling version?

[BreathWeapon]

I don't think the speed argument is going to cut it. Spoils-Dragon is even more consistant than Belcher at turn 2 wins and has 8 Disruption spells MD, Unmask and Duress. It has a highly flexible SB with Verdants, Pernicious Deeds and its Xantid Swarms have added synergy with your Animates. Not to mention, B/g Spoils-Dragon is THE BEST Proxie 5 deck for the money.

How does Belcher hope to compete with that? I just don't think this deck has anything to offer the field. Twister has the same amount of threat density with 4 fully supported FoW and a more stable manabase, Spoils Dragon is just as fast(er) and has 8+ Disruption Spells and a highly flexible SB.

[Mathman07]

SpoilsDragon is a great deck, but it is hated very, very easily.

Here are some commonly played cards that hate it:

Tormod's Crypt
Coffin Purge
Withered Wretch
Stifle
Swords to Plowshares (All other instant speed creature kill)
Naturalize (And other instant speed enchantment removal)
Waterfront Bouncer (All other instant speed bounce)
Pernicious Deed
Ankh of Mishra
Root Maze
Counters (obv.)

Yeah, so Spoils Dragon has lots of hate.  Looking at Belcher hate:

Null Rod
Trinisphere
FoW
Stifle
Root Maze
Damping Matrix
COTV + Sphere [of Resistance] (One alone just doesn't do it)

Overall, SpoilsDragon has much more hate than does Belcher.

Twister.Dec also has more hate because it needs to play > 10 spells in one turn to win while belcher only needs to play a few.  Sphere of Resistance, Chalice of the Void, and Root Maze are not as big of problems to Belcher as they are to Twister.Dec.

SpoilsDragon is about as fast as belcher but has more hate, as does Twister.dec.  I guess that's why people play belcher.


THREATS

3x Diminishing Returns
1x Mind's Desire
1x Memory Jar
1x Necro
1x Y Bargain
1x Tinker
1x Wheel of Fortune
1x Timetwister
1x Windfall
= 11 threats

4x Goblin Charbelcher
2x Goblin Welder
1x Memory Jar
1x Tinker
1x Wheel of Fortune
1x Timetwister
1x Necropotence
= 11 threats (13 if you include Living Wish => Welder)

So belcher arguably has more threats than Twister.

[frimble]

Heck, I would appreciate nobody else playing Belcher so I can come to a tourney with no one expecting it and slip quietly into the Top 8.  As I have always thought about combo decks: they're a nice break from a real deck. (I see Smennen rolling over at that statement)

Back to the benefits of Belcher over Dragon - I can't believe I am even entertaining this - WGD is a 2-3 card combo that dies to a single Stifle.
Belcher is a one-card-combo.  Belcher is kind of an easier way to do a "Tendrils kill".  It also happens to run enough black accelleration and search to be a Tendrils deck. Thus, better than WGD.

[Charlie]

Where is Yawgmoth's Bargain? if Belcher is a 7cc killer the Bargain is 6cc.

[BreathWeapon]

If you bother to take a look at the most recent Tournament standings, you'll see a hell of a lot less hate for Dragon than you will for TPS, Twister and by logical default Belcher. Belcher dies to anything with Prison in the tital consistantly. Budget decks that can accelerate Null Rods into play with Ancient Tombs and ESG's, O-Stomy and FCG, also present a problem.
Belcher is going to flat out DIE because its trapped beneath a wave of hate for two different decks, Twister and Slavery.

If any Combo deck is going to quietly sneak into the Top 8, its Dragon. The hate for it in SB's is decreasing, as evidenced by the decrease in Blood Moon and GY removal, and only STP, Wastelands and Stifle are Main Decked as Hate. The only common deck using STP is Keeper, and Keeper is currently in a tremendous metagame slump when compared to Tog. Stifle and Wastelands are ever rampant, and will continue to present  problems for months to come.

Now, to get to the real heart of the argument lets look at the facts.

1) Spoils Dragon is more consistant than Belcher.
2) Spoils Dragon is just as fast if not faster than Belcher
3) Spoils Dragon has LESS MD Hate to deal with in comparison to Belcher.
4) Spoils Dragon has 8 Disruption cards MD, and can use ALL of them with out slowing down the turn 2 win.
5) Spoils Dragon has a more stable Manabase
6) Spoils Dragon has Xantid Swarms/Animate synergy and Perncious Deed to deal with additional SB Hate plus 4 Verdants to increase its threat density.
7) Spoils Dragon is affordable to budget players and designed specificaly for Proxie 5.

With the main points out of the way, lets look at Belchers problems.

1) Currently trapped between increasing hate for Slavery.dec and Twister.dec
2) FoW->Land Grant=Continuing Problem.
3) Total inability to slow role vs control.

The only good thing I see for Belcher is that it Top Decks like a god. Nevertheless, the more you take a look at the future of out metagame the more dubious Belcher becomes. I like the deck, but it sits right next to Ravager Affinity as a deck with out anything to add to the metagame. It doesn't constitute a dynamic threat, so it isn't going to break out in mass.

[Mathman07]

@Breathweapon

you'll see a hell of a lot less hate for Dragon than you will for TPS, Twister and by logical default Belcher. Belcher dies to anything with Prison in the tital consistantly. Budget decks that can accelerate Null Rods into play with Ancient Tombs and ESG's, O-Stomy and FCG, also present a problem.
Belcher is going to flat out DIE because its trapped beneath a wave of hate for two different decks, Twister and Slavery.

Looking at Dr. Sylvan's Type 1 Metagame article, we see a few things:

Note: I am not including FoW, Duress or Mana Drain because they are not specific hosers, just staples of the format.

49 Tormod's Crypt
31 Stifle
22 Naturalize (8 Disenchant 9 Seal of Cleansing)
22 Blue Elemental Blast
20 Pernicious Deed
17 Coffin Purge
11 Chain of Vapor
11 Swords to Plowshares
8 Hydroblast

This gives us a total of 191 hate cards for Dragon

Compare to only

33 CoTV*
20 Pernicious Deed
16 Sphere of Resistance*
6 Energy Flux
4 Damping Matrix
4 Null Rod

83 hate cards for Belcher

This data is not representative of all metagames, but it is clear that Belcher is under most people's radar.  Simple artifact destruction is not enough to hate Belcher, you can just tap belcher in response for the win.

and only STP, Wastelands and Stifle are Main Decked as Hate

Nope.  Oshawa Stompy plays Naturalize and Root Maze, Tog and GAT play deed, TnT can weld Duplicants at instant speed, and Chain of Vapor is maindecked by various combo decks.

1)  I would argue that SpoilsDragon is as consistant as Belcher because of the Draw 7's.
2) Spoils Dragon is as fast as Belcher because it rarely goes off on turn 1, while Belcher wins on turn one more often than SpoilsDragon.  Furthermore, this is NOT a fact unless you provide GFing or playtesting data.
3) There is more MD hate for Belcher, but much of it is too slow (Damping Matrix and Null Rod won't always hit play before Belcher wins).
4) Agreed, but Duress does slow you down somewhat.
5) Yes, but does this really matter if you are winning on turn 2?  It doesn't matter if you have no land if you have won the game.
6) Belcher has Welder/Belcher synergy and Phyrexian Negators and Artifact Destruction to deal with additional SB hate / increase its threat density.
7) Being more popular HURTS a deck - it just means that more people SB hate agaisnt you.  Affordability has little to do with power.

Belcher's Problems

1) Show me tournament T8's to prove this.
2) Stifling or StPing or bouncing or destroying Animate is as bad a problem for Dragon.
3) Belcher can slow roll against control by casting welders, Draw-7's, and belchers themselves.  Belcher has a poor late game but it should not come down to that.

Belcher adds another combo option to the metagame that can T8 under the radar.  How is this nothing?

[BreathWeapon]

You left out every form of artifact destruction, Goblin Welders and Trinispheres.

I didn't count singleton cards such as Duplicant and Platinum Angel for TnT and Pernicious Deed in Tog because they are too slow to have much effect on the game from my gold fishing analyssis.

Yes, more hate does exist for Dragon. Nevertheless, the amount of hate is decreasing and Dragon has 8 Disruption cards MD.

Honestly, what deck is Negator a threat against? Tog PWNz it, Landstill burns it, Fish mass blocks it and who plays Keeper these days?

[riggy]

I believe he's making the assumption that whatever turn the belcher is played is also the turn in which it will be activated. A sketchy assumption at best, but that means that Stifle needs to be added to the list of threat cards (as that will allow the artifact hate cards to come into play).

[Mathman07]

Simple artifact destruction is not enough to hate Belcher, you can just tap belcher in response for the win.

As I said above, you just tap belcher and win before they get priority or in response to artifact destruction.  Trinisphere was not played at all in February.  Goblin Welders don't work because again you go off in response.

The goal is to play a Negator after the control player is out of gas and in topdecking mode.  Four keeper decks T8ed in February (2 Iso, 2 normal) so i guess some people still play it.  Yeah, Negator isn't great, but if the opponent needs to burn / block it then they are not spending resources stopping you from comboing out.  The main threat against control is the 2 extra welders from the SB coming in.

[Spizzard]

Trinisphere was not played at all in February

Its important to realize that all of those calculations were just based on the t8.  A lot goes into making t8.  Trinisphere hated, hate cards being used against the correct decks cutting them from t8.  Just because it didn't appear in the t8, doesn't mean it wasn't played by multiple people.

The same thing applies when you add the hate cards used against dragon and those against workshop/artifact.  I'm willing to bet there was much more artifact hate (null rods, etc) that were played main board, but just by players who failed to make t8.

[BreathWeapon]

If your making your judgements based purely on the February metagame then your already significantly behind the times. Twister and Slavery are breaking out, and that changes things immensely.

[MaxxMatt]

@Lucient

I need some advices about what you feel about Workshop.dec's Matchup.

Belcher goes first --> it usually Win ( 4-7 Mana and 1 Spell to Win )
Workshop.dec goes firsst --> it usually win ( 3Sphere+other hate )

I usually thought that it is not a bad scenario. Splitting won and loss is good for a deck that can be REALLY hated out only by Fish and Workshop.dec.

But, speaking on a more constructive note, do you feel the need to lose a bit of speed, adding 4FoW to fight the first turn hate of that opponent?

For you, Why splitting victory is a better than finding a more balanced configuration that can compete a bit more against artifact?

Think about this change:
-2 Living Wish ( amost unplayable agaisnt stax )
-2 Welders
+4 FoW

Maybe you would have to pitch FoW to FoW, but if it let you win the turn after, playing your single Belcher, I think that it should be considered for a deck that as so much potential.

Another point is.
ANY deck can "go off" during his first, second turn. Why barring Belcher player of the possibility to stop it and win without problem 2 turns after the crucial counter?

Talking about the Workshop.dec matchup ( which is the one anyone should watch, if we want to improve this deck ), I feel bad knowing that the initial Roll Dice can give me THE victory ( Game 1 Win Roll, Win Game, Game 2 Lose Game, Game 3 Win Game... ). Maybe this situation can be tolarated in a Swiss Round, but when I'm playing those damned Top8, I NEED to avoid lucky the more than I can.

FoW IMHO could be the only protective cards for the maindeck.
No other card can battle with it and conquer the title of "Hand of God" in a lot of troubling situation.

What do you think?

[Lucentspirit]

Force of Will is THE ONLY card capable of preventing a stax player from dropping a trinisphere on turn one when you go second. Unfortunately, most belcher decks don't have enough main deck blue cards to support it. This is a fact of life. Just like with the increasing popularity of decks like stax and slaver the amount of fast artifact hate is going to increase.
     As of now I only have a few ideas on how to deal with Belcher's more difficult match ups (control/prison). I'm pretty happy with the main deck build. It's too fast and too consistant for most decks to respond to. I would love to get FoW into the deck, but, I would need to find ways to keep it's speed/consistancy the same.
          Right now I'm in the middle of final exam week and haven't had much time for playtesting, but, I'm pretty keen on seeing what a few changes to the SB might do.

SB idea 1..... Go aggro!  Negators were a nice touch at dulman. I think someone suggested Hidden Gibbons at one point. Call of the Heard might work well vs. control.  Spirit Guide beat down is a possibility, and I would be hard-pressed to find a reason not to have 4 welders somewhere.

SB idea 2.....  bring in the land! Man lands might just be a way around 3sphere AND some control decks. Mishra's Factory, Faerie Conclave,  Treetop Village....  I would pack a couple oxidize/artifact mutation in there too.

SB idea 3..... pick a deck to lose to, and lose to it.

SB idea 3a...... 4 workshops, 3 taiga, 3 artifact mutation, 2 goblin welder, 3 oxidize.

SB idea 3b....... 2 goblin welder,   3 xantid swarm, 2 Choke, 2 taiga, 3 oxidize, 3 duress.

If it isn't too obvious, I haven't tested any of these.

In general, if you resolve an artifact mutation againt stax, you will probably win.

On another note, I've been asked by a couple of people if I think living wish is vital to belcher...... well it's a matter of play style. It does offer some nice advantages: color fixer (gemstone), bait (xantid swarm), recursion (welder), artifact removal (uktabi oragutan), and mana accelerator (workshop). It gives you an oportunity to deal with situations you would otherwise be helpless against. The fact it does it for 1G is pretty sweet too. However taking it out is not going to "ruin" the deck. It could very well be duress, oxidize, Fow, goblin welder, xantid swarm, or any number of cards that might suit a specific metagame better.

[Mathman07]

If your making your judgements based purely on the February metagame then your already significantly behind the times. Twister and Slavery are breaking out, and that changes things immensely.

Its important to realize that all of those calculations were just based on the t8. A lot goes into making t8. Trinisphere hated, hate cards being used against the correct decks cutting them from t8. Just because it didn't appear in the t8, doesn't mean it wasn't played by multiple people.

@Both of you

Both of you have great points, except that the only data that we have is T8 data, and the only way to have enough data to make sense of it is to take a months worth.  This means that you will always need to look back in time for statistics.  This is inherently flawed but, I would argue, is better than guessing about the hate you will face.  Also, taking statistics of all of the decks played at a tourney is also not worth it because there are plenty of scrubs (no offense meant here) at tournaments who show up with bad T2 or extended decks that happen to have some hosers (Null Rod).

@Spizzard

The most MD artifact hate that I see is something like 4x Naturalize, 4x Null Rod, (or 4x of both) 2 or 3x Damping Matrix, or Cunning Wish => RnR / AMut / Hurkyls.  But still Tormod's Crypt is about as popular as Null Rod or RnR.

@BreathWeapon

I agree that Artifact hate is going up while Dragon hate is going down, but many cards that hurt Dragon (Stp, Chain, Stifle) are played MD for reasons other than to hurt Dragon.  I know that Twister and Slavery are breaking out, but we should wait and see before making assumptions about to what extent this will happen.  (Worshops are hard to come by)

@riggy

I believe he's making the assumption that whatever turn the belcher is played is also the turn in which it will be activated. A sketchy assumption at best, but that means that Stifle needs to be added to the list of threat cards (as that will allow the artifact hate cards to come into play).

I was making this assumption, but you can't just go adding stifle to the list because stifle is part of a 2-card combo to disrupt the deck.  In order for it to work you would need 2 different cards in the first 2 (or maybe 3) turns of the game.  In other words, stifle only slows you down 1 turn and that turn only matters if they have another hoser (and mana to play it obv) to take advantage of this.  2-card combos are BAD hosers.

[Machinus]

@ Dozer

I apologize for the delay in my reply. In regards to demonic consultation, I find consult to be too dangerous, even with burning wish. First, it is too risky to go for a restricted card except in extreme situations where you are up against a wall or have really very few cards left to search through. Otherwise, there is a reason to choose spoils. If you are going for a four or three of, which is likely going to be belcher or maybe welder, spoils will not remove your first copy, meaning you will probably remove less cards. Consult is really good when you only need one card to win, but if you are trying to use it to move into a winning position, it can remove cards you will need later. Spoils works well at both functions, finding cards you need now, and allowing you to make judgments on whether or not to risk killing that 3rd or 4th copy. While it may seem that RFG is a smaller price to pay than potential life, I find the flat fee of six RFG + additional cards to be steeper than being able to reevaluate your choices with every card you flip over at the cost of 1 point each.

I do not have as strong feelings about mystical, but generally speaking it can grab a lot of stuff out of this deck, and with spheres and a couple BS, it isn't too bad.

RE FoW:

Arguments similar to those given in regard to the lack of use for Duress apply here. Also, the pitch-light nature of the deck seems to be a problem. Where speed is concerned, it doesn't seem like a difficult decision to choose between trying to combo out with seven, or five. All the blue cards are essential to the power of this deck, and you don't want to hold them back to protect the other threats you produce. This is the last deck in the format that wants to think about defense. Add in to this the unsatisfactory probability of having force and another blue, WITHOUT adding "fluff" just for the sake of force fodder (why would you do this?!?!), and I think the task of anti-hate and defense can be relegated to the SB in terms of xantid swarm and co.

[pocketmoxen]

This deck is crazy fast.

For those that run Living Wish, would Orcish Lumberjack do any good as a sideboard slot?

-jkn

[MaxxMatt]

I  ( and reading Lucient answers.. even Lucient ) considered FoW for the maindeck of this combo deck only for two reasons:

1) The existance of Workshop.dec
2) The need that I have to rise a bit the winning rate EVEN in this specific matchup.

So if I don't expect first turn 3Spehre, Rod, MAtrix, SPhere and so on ALL around the field where I play, I don't want any protection.

If 4 FoW can prevent me to lose only because I lose the Roll Dice, then I WISH to have them in the maindeck above all.

Duress and FoW should not be considered "in the same way" while we play them in this deck.

Duress is a proactive card and doesn't protect you from the auto lose of a 1st turn 3Sphere.

FoW protect you at least from an opponent crucial spell and there aren't "bad timing or topdecking oppnent's abilities that would prevent you to resolve it at least one time.  

In this deck, that HAVE to obtain AT LEAST the chance to START playing, FoW is the right choice and Duress the bad one.
of course if youi wnat maindeck protections...

Stax usually have 12-14 cards that can PREVENT you from play at all during your first turn ( excluding some crazy and lucky initial hands with a land ... ) if he go first. IMHO, FoW in the first 7 cards usually is the key not to lose to his first turn weapon and to win the following one..

[frimble]

I am sure that most of you have read the article "Who's the Beatdown?".  If not, you need to.

The Belcher deck is ALWAYS the beatdown in every matchup I can think of.  I cannot see how slowing the deck to have a small chance of dealing with a low percentage of a 1st-turn 3sphere or Null Rod is at all a good idea.  Read: I think Force of Will is a bad idea in the deck as it stands.  That is not to say that in a much more blue version, perhaps running a few Mana Severance, wouldn't work.  A Controllish combo-type deck maybe?

I, however, will not be spending any of my time to look into this option.


@ Pocketmoxen:  Yup, it's real speedy.  I hadn't even thought of using the Lumberjack.  Unfortunately, the way I see it, first it would be a bit slow, and it would get rid of your permanent sources of mana which in this case are not renuable forests.  Red isn't the color we need more of unles you are running Burning Wish, 4 Welders, and several other Red cards.  Green also is already there (forests) and not needed in mass.  The permanent mana sources are needed to go off when you cast the Belcher for 4 then want to activate next turn.  I think there are much better slots in the board than the Lumberjack.  

But this kind of adding to the discussion is very beneficial IMO, as we certainly may be missing some good cards in the 10,000+ that exist.  For example, I never thought I'd would say, "Hey, that Mana Cylix is great!"

[MaxxMatt]

@friemble. I HOPE  that your way of reasoning is dictated only by specific metagame choices. I usually face too much first turn Artifact hate during my tourneys NOT to consider them all as a bad and frequent way of losing.. SO, thinking about valid ways to deal with them, I HAVE to think to FoW not lose too much.

And with 4 FoW, I continue to be  the "beatdown" in any match.

[frimble]

@Maxmat:  I don't have to play against that many Workshop decks.  I live in Indianapolis, so I play in Chicago IL, Columbus OH (Smennen, Chain5 and that group), some in Indiana (there are a couple of guys with Workshop playsets), and hopefully soon in Champaigne IL when Smash and Dr. Sylvan run their next tourney.  I would estimate that, on average, I go up against a 25% field of Worksop decks.  And typically, they win if they go first.  I have decided to take the statistical approach of being ok with loosing to those decks.  This is also why I have stated that this a not a tournement-winning deck, but it is definately a Top 8 / Top 4 deck.

The opponents I build decks to play against are NO SLOUCHES - some of the best in the world IMO.

If 25% of what I would come up against goes first (50%), they have a 25% chance of laying out a 1st-turn hoser.  Theses are good odds for me.  

Even if 50% of your field were to have a 50% chance when they would go first (50%), that still is only 12.5% that would be an auto-loss.  Even to this extreme, that's not terrible odds.  Though I cannot imagine you play where half of the participants use play-sets of Workshops and 3Spheres - the only possiblity of that would be in ALL proxy events such as what Smennen runs in Columbus.

When I was deciding what cards to put in my maindeck, I was simply wanting to win turn 1-2 in the most consistant way.    My second goal was to be able to increase the threat density to be more consistantly stong against blue control.  Then I used the board to increase the blue control match up and then to overall consistancy (to utiltize the Living Wishes).  I have about 5 slots in the board for anti-artifact, but all are reactive, so 3sphere still is very bad news, if it hit the table turn 1.  But I figure, what's the odds?  

[Psionic]

I've been playing Charbelcher combo for a while, first starting out with the 1-land Bayou version with Vineyards, and later the 2-land version.  This deck has been *very* fast and pretty solid and I wanted to thank those of you who were integral in the development of this deck.  Congrats to Kim on his 1st place Dulmen finish with the deck--very impressive.

This deck, is of course, very young when you consider the roots of many combo decks, and can be made more reliable and resilient to hate.  I agree with everyone that it is a T8 deck, but I think we can make this a consistent T8 deck that isn't terrified of Null Rod and the likes.  Some countermagic, ala FoW, will do wonders at propelling this deck into Tier 1 status.  I know this has been said already, but I wanted to reinforce that opinion with my experiences with the deck.

Some notes I wanted to share:

- For those of you talking about taking Channel out, reconsider.  In my testing, 90% of my turn 1 wins are thanks to Channel.

- We should start working on a decklist that can support 4 Force of Will.  It is possible, considering the heart of the combo is a mere 10 cards: 4 Charbelcher 4 Land Grant 1 Tropical Island 1 Bayou--leaving us plenty of room.   Combo such Draw7 runs 11 - 12 land and 1 - 3 kill cards.  We have a smaller "core", so if it can run FoW, we should be able to.

- Even with the Forces, I think 1 - 2 Goblin Welders are needed to stay MD, plus 1 - 2 in the side.  This card is just too good to leave out completely, for the Belcher recursion and to potentially weld out 3Spheres and Null Rods on the other side of the table.  

- Thoughts on Brainstorm:  I love this card on paper, but casting it often requires the loss of a mana source if you don't have the Tropical out or it was hit by a Wasteland--Chromatic Sphere, Lotus Petal, etc., etc.  I started running 2 Birds of Paradise in my deck to smooth the mana out.  They are slow and fragile, but they are doing wonders for the mana base.  I have seen Mana Cylix's and Barbed Sextants in other decklists, showing a definite need for more mana fixers.  The question is, which the best?  With multiple FoW, we will almost definitely need Bra

- Living Wish?  Does this card make the cut in a deck supporting Force of Will?

Everyone keep up the great work on this super-fast, super-fun deck that *WILL* be a force to reckon with, we just have to work on some bugs and get some countermagic MD.

For your interest, here is the current decklist I am testing:

Land
1x Tropical Island
1x Bayou

Fighting Back Against the Hate
4x Force of Will
1x Chain of Vapor
1x Hurkyl's Recall
1x Goblin Welder

Non-Land Mana
1x Channel
4x Dark Ritual
4x Elvish Spirit Guide
4x Land Grant

2x Tinder Wall
2x Birds of Paradise*

7x SoLoMoxen
3x Chromatic Sphere
1x Chrome Mox
1x Mana Vault
1x Mana Crypt
1x Grim Monolith

Draw/Search
4x Brainstorm*
1x Ancestral Recall
1x Timetwister
1x Wheel of Fortune
1x Windfall
1x Memory Jar
1x Tinker
1x Mystical Tutor
1x Demonic Tutor
1x Vampiric Tutor

Win Conditions
4x Goblin Charbelcher
1x Tendrils of Agony

Utility
1x Yawgmoth’s Will

2x Birds of Paradise: These are janky and probably could be better as Mana Cylix’s.  I have yet to test the Cylix, but I will.

4x Brainstorm: Ups the blue card count to 15 (incl. Forces), allowing us to barely support the 4 Forces.  I am still not sold on BS, as the shuffle effects are limited in Belcher and the mana base is fairly shaky (i.e.- we do not have copious amounts of off-color mana to spend on random utility like other decks).

I have done limited testing with this configuration, and I must say I am unhappy with the mana base, as sometimes getting stable U online is an exercise in futility, at least when you are looking to go off on Turn 3 at the latest.  I just wanted to present this list for discussion as I would like us to work on getting this deck to support protection for the combo.

Psionic

[pocketmoxen]

I don't know about building it so it supports Force of Will---I run 3X Welders, plus 1X to wish for in the sideboard if something bad happens to a Belcher. I can't see myself holding certain cards back to pitch for FoW, as opposed to going out and trying to win this turn.

But if it comes down to it, should Transmute Artifact be a contender? It's a blue pitch, even if it's a bad 2nd Tinker (but better than Reshape).

-jkn

[MaxxMatt]

friemble.

That's italy friemble.. . During this period seems that anyone own or stole to the "rest of the world" a set of 4 MW...

here we have huge tourneys that can collect all the 4x sets of workshop that we have all around. Of couse,usually I don't think that I have a 50% of Workshop.dec to face, but they are enough to force you to lose 2 or 3 matches during the 6-8 swiss turns.

And even if the wuantity still is a problem, the quality of decks and players is another heavy aspect to consider. Internet, TMD and this community is doing a great work for t1 in the world. so a lot of the new tech are played even here. Even if we don't have "Mighty Smmemn" we have very good players.  :lol:

But, to be more costuctive, top8ing with belcher can be considered MORE than a POssibility. It is really easy with the right pairings and only a bit more challenging if one or 2 pairings

And the REAL problem, plying belcher, consist on the Top8. Here at least 2 or 3 Workshop based decks do top8 . If you want to win the final price you HAVE to think how to win against them MORE than relying on winning against anyother decks.

Belcher have stellar winning rate against all the field that usually DON'T top8. against them, I feel that I need more than pure speed to win...

How much do you lose adding 4 FoW? IMHO I don't think that you can't win on turn one or two with the same consistency ( I think about cutting 2 wish plus 2 welders ). what do you thnk?

Hulk and Workshop.dec and Fish with rods are usually deks that can easily top8 . and they can pack belcher hate.. even maindeck..

Even with a good "density of treats" sometimes is better to stop one of their treats or to protect one of your key spell rather than being able to resolve neither of them.

So because of this metagame, I feel the Need to have 4 FoW in he maindeck. Not any one other reason guide me.

<2 cents