My Predictions for 2005

[MuzzonoAmi]

While I agree that FoF should be looked at for unrestriction, the very intimation that Gush should be unrestricted is absurd. 4-Gush GAT would be just as dominant now as it was then, especially with Shoals replacing Misdirection.  I'm not sure if you understand this, but GAT has many ways of answering Trinisphere, which is the only card that could reasonably restrain it.

[VGB]

4 Gush GaT was a great deck - but I don't consider it any better than 10 of the current best decks.

I reiterate, Workshop decks are putting up similar T8 numbers as GaT when it was at its most frenzied, and lets not forget this was when:

1) RectorTrix and Stax were winning tournaments (in seas of GaT, I might add), and UrPhid, Keeper, and Monoblue were considered Tier 1.
2) Suicide Black and Sligh were still making T8's.

The proof is all out there.

[MuzzonoAmi]

And other decks are winning tournaments today. There hasn't been any evidence to suggest that GAT wouldn't be degenerate today. In fact, there's evidence to the contrary. Scott Limmoges and Ultima have already shown that there is still strengh in the archetype without giving it back its disgustingly degenerate draw engine. And as I said before,  Disrupting Shoal would replace MisD, meaning that GAT would be nearly Trini-proof (it would have 5-6 cards MD that pitched to Shoals to stop Trini, in addition to FoW, essentially giving it Forces with which to stop it). Also, if you recall how bad GAT was at its peak, it would regularly beat Stax, THE VERY DECK DESIGNED TO BEAT IT.

[Vegeta2711]

If I remember correctly, MUD and Stacker would kick GAT's shit to the curb. Hell Pyrostatic Pillar in Ankh Sligh could probably beat that stupid thing nowadays. With Trinisphere and faster combo I somehow doubt GAT would be anywhere nearly as outclassing as it used to be. Now if it were still the best deck, I have no idea, because noone has tested that kind of shit. It'd be pointless.

Anyways, great article Steve. It was a enjoyable read and I agree with many of the sentiments in it.

[Dr. Sylvan]

Since this is hardly the time of the year to make restriction recommendations, I'll leave my final verdict for February, by which time I expect some new developments to have come about. But for now, can we please stop whining for just two months? No matter what side you're on, let the evidence build up, and then flood Knut's inbox with vitriolic screeds in early- to mid-February, at which point I'll refer back to this summary of the debate-to-date and diagnose the patient, er, format. Then the DCI will ignore all of us and do the right thing anyway based on their own thinking. It's that simple.

I respect Z's prosnosticating, but there's no need to turn this into a repeat of everything that has now been said roughly 547060598759867 times now. You're not even discussing his predictions, guys. :)

Go test for Waterbury and SCG IV instead.

[Windfall]

I have no problems with Force of Will or Duress.  They're both amazing cards that hold the format together.  I also don't think that Mana Drain is something that needs to see restriction.  Duress deals with Mana Drain and Force of Will prefectly.  It's the card that deals with Control.

I guess the point is, I agree with the restriction of Trnisphere and Dark Ritual, and with those gone, I think the format would be fun for a while.  Sure, Mana Drain decks would be everywhere, but they always were.  Mana Drain can be played around.

Aggro-Control is really just control with creatures that help control the game.  I always found that Fish either got its counterspells or it lost the game.  If Fish didn't have countermagic, it didn't beat me.  If U/G Madness did not have its countermagic, I won.  That's aggro's problem; if you resolve just 1 key solution to it, it scoops.

This whole thread is starting to become a bit repetitive.  We have our opinions, and it appears we will stick by them.  I wouldn't mind seeing a major change to the game.  As it is, I think it's going downhill, but that's because I don't think it's fun to play with and against the same cards every game.  Thus, I play limited and it's amazing.

    ~Mark B.

[Whatever Works]

Perhaps we should just forget about what needs to be restricted and unrestricted until about a week before they update the restricted/banned list.

Though BOK (the new set coming out) will most likely be the next set in the new "masque block" you never know what cards it could give to change the format...

Until we know what the format will look like when its time to update the list its kind of pointless to argue what needs to be changed (when these changes could be completely irrelevent in 3 months).

[xrobx]

I'm just thinking out loud here - but is there anything inherently wrong with a T1 format without much control? We have lots of T1 metagames without much aggro, how is not having Control inherently worse?

The difference between games that take 5 minutes and games that can often go to time. Even you can see what that does to the formats PR. Instead of argueing, I'll just save ourselves an ugly cycle and point you to the stuff I've mentioned in the 3 articles I wrote and I'll be sure to reread everything you've said in your writings and in the end we'll still be on the same sides of the fence we are now.

I wanted to comment that smmenem (sp?) had a very good point, in that it may not necessarily be worse to have a diverse metagame consisting of many aggro decks and different builds.  This is the whole point of magic, to be creative and show some intelligence towards new productive concepts and HAVE FUN.

While I agree that a first turn 3sphere against you is not always 'fun' in a sense, it is fair nonetheless.  Obviously everyone wants to win, when they play magic.  Some decks have ways of winning that differ from other decks, and since it is a game of chance and card drawing, every deck has a chance* to win.  Crying about how someone elses deck beats you often and you don't like playing against it solves nothing.  There ARE solutions out there, and that's why they have something called a sideboard.  Game 1 comes down the the die roll, opening hand, and matchup of course.  If you have a favorable matchup, you may seem to have a better chance of winning that particular game.  If you don't, tough cookies.  The point is that every deck wins the way it wins, and unless something is dominantly taking over the field, there is no reason to try and point out unfair advantages one deck has over another.

Say they did restrict dark ritual.  Combo players would go apeshit, as their decks are no longer competitive.  Restrict workshop; just see how flooded the market becomes with them, the huge loss of "value" on any given stax players collection, the bitching they'll do, etc etc.  The same would happen if they restricted/banned mana drain.  Control players would likely almost instantaneously have a hissy fit and throw their cards away, investing in other decks.  This is childish and not the way magic should be played.

Again, I'm not discreditting brokeness and the idea behind restrictions.  If these decks are dominating the field because of a particular card, and you need that card in the deck to be competitive, then I agree with the restriction of the said card (i.e NECRO...).  However, the field is diverse enough as it is right now, nowhere around here are combo decks showing 50% of the top 8, neither is any other archetype for that matter.  Yes, I do think stax is a problem for some decks.  As is oath for others, as is slaver for others, etc etc.

IMHO, play with what's out there.  Develop new and innovative ways to deal with decks, and furthermore, develop decks!  CAB-Gifted may not be the best tier 1 deck out there, but it does have a strong build and may contend in many high quality tournaments.  Although it is bent around killing with darkstele colossus, it is still viable as it runs control  backup and has a combo-ish feel due to the search/draw engine.

[Eddie]

I think most people that advocate the restriction of Trinisphere just want it restricted because they don't like playing against it, not because of the power level. Well, I hate playing against oath. And look at Richmond: half T8 is Oath! Clearly, oath must be restricted.

This is the most stable and interesting metagame we've had in years. No need to kill a few decks and make the meta less interesting.

As it is, I think it's going downhill, but that's because I don't think it's fun to play with and against the same cards every game.

In vintage, cards don't rotate. So it is only natural to play against the same cards again and again. If you restrict the popular cards, other cards will become popular and you're back where you started.

[Sytupal]

I need to bring up a point relating to this.  Or maybe it isn't relating to this because I'm not specifically bringing  up necessary restrictions for cards etc.  
-----
Nice Read Zherbus, very enjoyable and brings up many points for us to keep in mind, whether or not they've been stated before.  

My thought comes from the top 4 at Waterbury however.     3 Control Slavers and a TPS.  I do not know as of yet who came in first however it seems to me, with this being one of the highest player count tournament ever and with what should have been a very well thought out metagame, that Something has got to be done about control slaver.  

Trinisphere didn't make a dent in this metagame except to hold back combo, one of which(combo i mean) still made it through to top 4 contention.

My ideas/ questions are why you don't think that Control Slaver will be scathed at all.  It seems to be the one dominant thing in this metagame.    Definitely not TPS or workshop based Trinisphere.  

As you said, Control Slaver will be a dominant and successful deck for years to come however it seems that while things may not become restricted in Slaver, maybe something could be written on the fact that people should finally learn to start gearing towards "playing it or hating it" more?

[Zherbus]

Trinisphere didn't make a dent in this metagame except to hold back combo, one of which(combo i mean) still made it through to top 4 contention.

There was almost NO Trinisphere decks. Shay and ELD have popularized Control Slaver to an extreme in New England and that was literally half of my rounds. It was about half of Justins rounds too.

My ideas/ questions are why you don't think that Control Slaver will be scathed at all. It seems to be the one dominant thing in this metagame. Definitely not TPS or workshop based Trinisphere.

There has always been a difference in type 1 between what people PLAY and what they should play. I'm not saying Control Slaver is a bad deck (it isn't... it's the only control deck people should play), however playing Control Slaver is statistically a crap shoot when everyone else is doing it too (I'd be suprised to see.

Take into account that with the articles and reports that have gone up recently, everyone is preparing for a Dark Ritual Combo/Trinisphere metagame. There's no REB's, no removal, no GY hate outside of the mirror.

If DR and 3Sphere go, people can stop preparing so much for those decks and CS will have to deal with other decks plowing their Welders/Angels, REBing their Drains, and Ground Sealing their gameplan.

[xrobx]

As you said, Control Slaver will be a dominant and successful deck for years to come however it seems that while things may not become restricted in Slaver, maybe something could be written on the fact that people should finally learn to start gearing towards "playing it or hating it" more?

This is true, but there really isn't a problem hating out slaver, is there?  Its win condition is so conditional, and things like null rod, ground seal, planar void, tormod's crypt, reb, fire/ice, REB, etc etc etc, can seriously mess up the CS's game plan.  I *guess* CS could be around for awhile, so long as they don't print anything like F/I again or lava dart doesn't start seeing a lot more play; I've always liked this card since it came out but many people doubt its power.

[ELD]

The only, and I mean only, match that I am not confident in with CS is the mirror.  Lava dart, in a deck as solid as control slaver, makes the welder plan a nightmare.  VS a deck w/o such a sleek and powerful draw engine, it's not as big a deal.  At this point I'm going to have to call the mirror match random.  I win game one alot due to duress main, and the lack of platinum angel.  Game 2/3 however, can become so very random due to the inherant "card advantage" of lava dart.  

Hate like null rod, ground seal, planar void and crypt all share the same problem.  They sit on the board, and allow me to out play the card.  It is not hard to do.  My opponent goes -1 card from hand.  At that point, out drawing them is not as difficult to do.  I need to draw enough cards that I can remove the permanant, and then win.  My opponent is in no position to stop me, as they have given up on CA and often have other "dead" draws in the deck.  Ground Seal's cantriping makes it by far the best of these.  It does not give up on CA, but instead tempo.  Ground Seal resolving often opens up a window to resolve a thirst eot and other goodness on the following turn.  If it is drained, CS sinks the 2 into a thirst or other card to pull ahead.  

Fire/Ice and REB are both cards that are handled by CS out drawing the decks that pack them.  Welders do not have to hit until they are needed, so Fire/Ice is often a dead card until it is duressed away, or will be countered.  REB is solid, but only from a deck that can keep up with CS.  My old version of to Tog, with 3 DA main and a mox monkey main could keep up, but in all honesty, it just doesn't make anywhere near as good a use of acceleration.  It's broken draws were not nearly as broken as CS.  

At the end of the day, TFK is the card that makes CS so good.  For better or worse if it gets restricted, the deck will likely be able to survive by adapting the Intuition/AK/DA engine though.  IMO CS will be on top for quite a while.  I honestly belive it is the best deck that I've seen played.

[onelovemachine]

Trinisphere is being compared with mana drain a LOT in these arguments.  I see why too; if you get mana drained you probably will lose based on the mana being used on drawing a million cards.  Those million cards create the card advantage and allow you to drain again, force or duress etc.  But to an extent, drain is a reactive control measure that kills on a 1 for 1 basis only, and trinisphere creates all the card advantage that drain + intuition + ak will create.  Trinisphere proactively answers threats in the way duress does except that trinisphere kills many more cards than duress or drain can by themselves.  It's possible to drain into nothing or draw a million terrible cards.  It's possible to resolve trinisphere and lose.  Decks that play either are designed to win using these cards so in many ways they are exactly even.  But trinisphere answers more than one card at a time.... drain hits only one.

[Mr. Fantazy]

Great read Steve.

Trinisphere will be restricted
Trinisphere is the proof that as long as Workshop remains unrestricted, R&D can make no 3cc artifacts worth a shit.

The DCI will restrict Trinisphere before 'shop, they are notorious for shooting innocent bystanders, before they kill the actual design nightmare.

As a player, 'shop, trini, etc. don't especially bother me. From a design view the actual culprit, and continuing problem is Workshop.

It would be interesting to hear some of the TMD card designers address this issue.

People will get bored with "Ban Yawgmoth's Will" and move on to "Ban Tinker
I can't help but think you must already have heard this from someone  Personally I think Gorilla Shaman should be banned, anytime some bullshit $.25 common creature can kill my $300+ artifacts something is wrong.
BAN THE MONKEY!!!

More Extended people will come to Type One than to Legacy
It almost seems unthinkable that WotC would not make a push to support Legacy. Not to get into the T1 is the retarted bastard child of WotC, but the older formats serve the purpose of older cards maintaining value for the collectors who do buy new sets, it also extends the 3yr lifespan of the avg. magic player. Keep them playing long enough and eventually some of them will dabble in T2 or Limited again.

Are you actually predicting that WotC will not support Legacy, or the support won't be enough. I would agree that Vintage will see an influx of players but how many will stop the transition at Legacy?


Shawn

[Diakonov]

There was almost NO Trinisphere decks. Shay and ELD have popularized Control Slaver to an extreme in New England and that was literally half of my rounds. It was about half of Justins rounds too.

I know that you give Control Slaver credit, but I think that it deserves even more.  You say that CS showed up in large numbers because it was popularized, but Trinisphere has been far more popularized in articles and discussions.  Personally, I think we didn't see a large number of Trinispheres at Waterbury because most people recognized that even with its brokenness it wasn't the best choice.

The play of Workshop-->Trini is obviously an extremely solid play, but it forces you to run a Workshop-based deck which is inherently inconsistent.  I think that 5/3 is a great deck and Stax variants to a lesser extent, but to call them overpowered enough to create an unfair metagame?  I definitely don't agree with that.

Also...

If DR and 3Sphere go, people can stop preparing so much for those decks and CS will have to deal with other decks plowing their Welders/Angels, REBing their Drains, and Ground Sealing their gameplan.

After the Waterbury results, I imagine that this change in sideboards will now happen regardless.

[MCS]

Agro isn't dead. Look at the goblin deck of Marvin Riechers placed 4 in Karlsruhe 8.1. It is old school sligh as much as it can be. And it doesn't run a single piece of power. Most t8's have at least 1 food chain goblins wich is a combo deck, but sometimes it kills without the food chain.

By my opinion the current result of t8's is forced by a straightforward thinking that you should always play a net deck and never test a new thing. This is why there are so many workshop based deck, this is why there where so many gat's, this is why there will be a pletora of new decks in the future t8's wich will be copy pasted from a t8 decklist that won a major tournament.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Z, interesting piece, especially the timing; nice job.

There seem to be one big issues which have flowed from Z's restriction predictions (imagine if T1 caught on with the rap community):

Should we restrict Trinisphere and/or Dark Ritual, and what would it do to the format.

Since people assume trinisphere is a more offensive card than ritual, and there's a possibility that only trinisphere will get axed, what would the outcome look like if 4x ritual combo could play in a tournament without worrying about trinisphere?

I think there's a very good chance that combo would become unbearable and ritual would have to go.  However, I would be much more interested to see if prison, control, and possibly even hate aggro could evolve to incorporate things like (using control for the example) maindecked 8x pitch counters backed up by 4x null rod, or chalice for 1, or...

People talk about the phase between Tendrils being printed and Trinsphere coming out.  Yes, Long and others were extremely powerful, but I never saw tournament results which would make me think that the format couldn't evolve to contain them.  I agree a lot with part of Smennen's comment on T1 being the most skill intensive it's ever been.  While the play-skill of the average T1 player is still pretty terrible (albeit improving), the metagame awareness is getting so much better than it was before.  Given enough time and the card pool we have, I think a card/deck should really have to work to get restricted.
This puts me in the Smennen/Diakonov camp of inaction for the current time in the hopes that people will 'solve' the obvious disparities in matches that we see dominated by trinipshere or dark ritual.

The strongest evidence to support this policy just showed up with this weekend's Waterbury tournament.  For those who couldn't make it, the strongest showings came from Welder based control decks, and Storm Combo.  I don't know what the exact top 16 looked like, but by looking at the top twenty tables rounds 7-8, it was obvious that control slaver, TPS, and decks of similar ilk were carrying the day.

Combine this with other large tournaments where workshops have performed well and what we have here is an interesting triangle where Welders and basics are an excellent answer to workshop/trinisphere, trinisphere is the single best card against storm combo (although TPS can handle this with regularity), and storm combo has a favorable matchup against control slaver.

The last component is the most susceptible to attack, since my personal testing experience is much different from remarks from two talented slaver players.  Both ELD (on this thread) and Ultima (2nd at Waterbury) contend that CS has little trouble with storm combo, I'd like some explanations why (probably not in this thread).

Given that this triangle holds, we have a competitive metagame of pillar decks (that most of us have realized for some time) that sets in place checks and balances, and allows plenty of wiggle room for rogue and innovative decks to take advantage of regional metagame gaps, and for new cards to be incorporated or start new trends.

In light of all this, I don't want to make it sound like T1 is perfectly healthy.  I understand comments about the mindlessness of trinisphere and the masturbatory nature of storm combo.  However, I think we've developed a card pool and deck builder base that will push the 'fundamental turn' (sorry, it's the most apt term I could come up with) to one, no matter what we restrict.  This leaves either dealing with the current parameters, a large number of restrictions (knocking only rit and trini would open the doors wide open for belcher long before anything with intuitions would scare me), or playing legacy.  I choose the first.

[andrewpate]

By my opinion the current result of t8's is forced by a straightforward thinking that you should always play a net deck and never test a new thing. This is why there are so many workshop based deck, this is why there where so many gat's, this is why there will be a pletora of new decks in the future t8's wich will be copy pasted from a t8 decklist that won a major tournament.

I disagree with this sentiment.  I think we play fewer netdecks than in any other format.  Just look at tournament results with t8 slots going to Kobolds and Transmute Artifact decks.  If there is an inordinate number of Workshop decks popping up in the top slots, it's only because Mishra's Workshop is very powerful and decks that utilize it tend to be very powerful, as well.

[MuzzonoAmi]

GI - I agree with almost everything you said, but there are a few things I dasgree on:
1. I don't think that the resouces exist (right now) to push the fundamental turn to 1. If we still had LED or Chrome Mox as 4-ofs, there's a chance that we could, but unless we find a way to make Belcher more consistent and they print a second Trinisphere level bomb for Workshop decks, the fundamental turn is going to stay where it is right now.

2. I don't see how Belcher would be better if Ritual got restricted.

[Grand Inquisitor]

I don't think that the resouces exist (right now) to push the fundamental turn to 1...the fundamental turn is going to stay where it is right now.

Perhaps it's because I was forced to use the poorly defined "fundamental turn", but in the current format you must have something critical to play turn 1 or a substantial answer by turn 1 or you will have difficulty competing.  I didn't say you will lose, or you can't win tournaments, just that you will be forced into a reactive position more times than not, and that good players will take advantage of that, which will cost you matches.  Of course, by critical answer I'm including rather innocuous cards like annul, stifle, daze, and chalice.

I don't see how Belcher would be better if Ritual got restricted

In round three I lost to belcher in three games, the third of which he won through chalice for 0, chalice for 1, and aura of silence.  He only cast dark ritual in game two, where I responded with abeyance for the win.  The deck is incredibly fast and redundant, it doesn't require black mana, and so far as good belcher players tell me, the only thing stopping it is trinisphere.

[MCS]

I think we play fewer netdecks than in any other format.

Fewer - true, but still lot, and more and more with each new big event.

Just look at tournament results with t8 slots going to Kobolds and Transmute Artifact decks.

Happens, but rogue wins also in extended and T2.

If there is an inordinate number of Workshop decks popping up in the top slots, it's only because Mishra's Workshop is very powerful and decks that utilize it tend to be very powerful, as well.

Workshop and storm. Lately T1 is all about netdecking (just look at the top 8's of the bigger events). I'm playing a r/g deck that can beat both of those and have a fair fight every game, but most of the comunity will have the urge to say "r/g is dead, aggro is dead, etc." despite they haven't tested a single match of storm or workshop vs. aggro. People tend to read articles on the net, copy/paste decks and think about themselves as they are playing the only viable choice in the format. Discarding a deck only because it isn't on the net is common sense today to most of the players.

The current state of mind is that the non-T1 players think about T1 as a format where you win or loose in round 1, they are convinced that trinisphere always resolves round 1 and that you don't have no more answer for it, etc. My experience is a little bit different, and by my opinion this whole debate isn't about should they ban or restrict some cards, but more about do we have enough experience to adapt to the format and to choose the right tools to fight in it. Storm and workshop? Great, play mono U or Stasis with stifle maindeck.

The enviorment will adapt and we don't have to ban or restrict anything. This is why I love T1 so much.

[Covetous]

Nothing needs to be changed--Waterbury demonstrates the balance of the format.  In fact, Waterbury proves that a well-built control deck can handle storm combo and workshop decks.  There was no domination of the tourney by either workshop.dec or tendrils.dec.  In fact, the tourney was dominated by mana drain.dec--what a suprise.  The backlash against 3sphere has gained momentum due to the results of SCG Chicago, a metagame that is traditionally workshop.metagame anyway.  People always hope that there will be no local metagame for big tourneys for whatever reason, but the fact is that waterbury is control.metagame, in the same way that chicago has a traditional metagame.  Funny that 4 of the top 8 were taken by the decks that traditionally define the metagame at these two tourneys.  When a powerful deck is omnipresent, you can expect it do well at a tourney.  It's simple numbers.  

I reiterate the "triangle" theory of metagame balance--each powerful archetype (mana drain/control, workshop/3sphere and dark ritual/combo) keeps another archetype under control.  If one archetype is neutered, that throws everything out of whack, potentially leading to multiple restrictions as opposed to just one.  Why restrict something when there is no problem, especially if there is no problem that needs correction?  Just because people don't like 3sphere doesn't mean it should be restricted.  People don't like getting their spells mana drained into something huge, and they don't like losing turn 1 or 2 to combo.  Type 1 decks are nasty and mean--they do dirty things.  But, they ALL do this--thus, they are all equally broken and thus broken = fair.

I predict that neither 3sphere nor MWS nor dark ritalin will require restriction.  In fact, I would say that considering the power of control slaver, I would be more worried about the restriction of Goblin Welder.

[Saucemaster]

Nothing needs to be changed--Waterbury demonstrates the balance of the format.  In fact, Waterbury proves that a well-built control deck can handle storm combo and workshop decks.

Without actually agreeing or disagreeing with the gist of your post, I will say that I think this part of it is just not true.  Waterbury may well have proved that well-built control decks can handle certain types of storm combo (MeanDeath was entirely unplayed afaik), but the Waterbury results have no bearing on Trinisphere in the slightest.  There were only a very, very small handful of Workshop decks in the tournament to begin with.  I was starting to believe the hype about Workshops showing up more in NE, and the control bias slowly slipping away, but oh man, not anymore.

[Zherbus]

Peoples arguements always seem to assume that an equal percentage of deck archetypes entered the tournament, but somehow 6 Control Slavers got through. This is literally the last time I'll post this:

Control Slaver HAD to have had 25% of the field.
Combined Storm Combo had to have 25%.
Misc. Control Decks (Oath, 4cC, Fish) had to have 25%.
Misc. Combo had another 15%.
Aggro had 5%.
Workshop had 5%.

I actually only SAW with my own eyes 2 Trinispheres all day. I could only piece together like 4 Workshop players when I was there, so being generous there was probably 8 out of 202 players with Workshop.

[Mixing Mike]

That's the the major point about restricting Trinisphere though.  Perhaps I was wrong in saying Dark Ritual needed restriction, but I know that Trinisphere does.  It's the point of player interaction that concerns me most.  There's little interaction between turn 1 Trini, second turn Tangle Wire/Smokestack.

I guess all that Waterbury really showed us is that Trinisphere.dec is NOT the deck keeping storm combo in check.  The fastest storm combo we've seen to date couldn't bulge through.

As far as Control Slaver goes, I don't really think there's any real effective hate cards against it, but I do know that many decks should be returning to the metagame to combat this beast.

[Conan_barberarn]

I don't agree on Control Slaver not being easy to hate out. In fact CS has a hard time against a well built fish if I recall corectly but fish is non existent now because of STAX and primarilly any deck running COW. Any deck running Shaman should have a good game vs CS.

I do agree with the point that a meta without STAX still can handle combo quite well which means there is no reason to restrict ritual.

/Gustav

[Zherbus]

Control isn't keeping combo is check. (non)Lucksacking is keeping combo in check and that's the problem. In Waterbury, we lost to lady luck or ourselves more than anyone else (Losing 3 games to yourself has no bearing on what the other deck is).

[Grand Inquisitor]

we lost to lady luck or ourselves more than anyone else

I'm sorry, but this is really hard to stomach.  Perhaps there was some odd statistical event last Saturday, but when 10+ of the most talented T1 players bring a deck that wins as consistently early as I saw and still perform poorly, then perhaps they're unrealistic about its ability to deal with hate and counter-strategies.  Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.

Peoples arguements always seem to assume that an equal percentage of deck archetypes entered the tournament, but somehow 6 Control Slavers got through. This is literally the last time I'll post this:

Control Slaver HAD to have had 25% of the field

I think you're right that people who weren't there have an unrealistic idea of how successful CS was, however, you kinda gotta wonder why so many people played it in the first place.  I think it really just is the best overall deck right now.  Especially since its so forgiving of bad players.

This strategy doesn't always bear out either.  There was a ton of CS at the September Waterbury, but only TAL and maybe one other made the T16 that time.

[Zherbus]

I'm sorry, but this is really hard to stomach. Perhaps there was some odd statistical event last Saturday, but when 10+ of the most talented T1 players bring a deck that wins as consistently early as I saw and still perform poorly, then perhaps they're unrealistic about its ability to deal with hate and counter-strategies. Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.

Well believe what you want, but none of the reports from our team contain 'I lost to Force of Will/Mana Drain'. I think people should wait until the reports are put up before playing analyst. Losing to hate... maybe (we did lose a small number of games (not matches) between the 11 of us to Stifle, Sphere of Resistance, and Arcane Lab which we didn't anticipate), but counter-strategies... absolutely not.'

MY Q&D for losses:

Lose to my own Spoils*, lose to turn 1 Three Dark Ritual-Belcher, lose to my own Spoils, lose to Tinker-Plats, lose to my own Spoils, lose the mirror, lose to Stifle, lose to early Plats (turn 3 I think, I stalled out earlier), lose to turn 1 Sphere of Resistance.

2 Games to hate, 2 Games to psuedo-hate in the form of Platinum Angel (with one being more or less a loss to stalling out), 3 to my own spoils, 2 to the coin flip.

3.5 games lost to hate
3.5 games lost to myself
2 games lost to the coin flip

*These are Spoils gone horribly wrong, like being at 16 with 4 Tendrils and playing Spoils when its the 17th card down. Or being at 10, with 14 card left in the deck, Tendrils in hand, and going for one of the three Cabal Rituals.

Have I made this at all easier to stomach, Steve?

I think it really just is the best overall deck right now. Especially since its so forgiving of bad players.

I'm going to agree with you here. This is the new 'when in doubt, play this' deck because it has at least a decent game against everything. It doesn't hurt that the best players in New England gave the stamp of approval to it.

There was a ton of CS at the September Waterbury, but only TAL and maybe one other made the T16 that time.

I would bet you any thing that there were more Control Slaver this time, than in September. I was at both and the big difference is that we expected a TON for September and were suprised to see just as much  4cControl. This time around, there was definitely a dramatic increase of people playing Slaver.