With Tezzeret dominating, what would it be safe to unrestrict?

[Smmenen]

Regarding Flash, I personally had more success with Flash, despite a couple major mistakes and a few goofy SB choices, than any other deck I have ever played. Maybe that's not saying much, but it was pretty amazing.

Here is the actual data on unrestricted Flash:

 Flash became ‘legal’ at almost the same time that Future Sight entered the format and the restriction of Gifts and unrestriction of Gush occurred. In the bimonthly metagame reports since then, Flash has fluctuated from 10.5% of the metagame  July-August, 2007, to 5.4% in Sept/Oct, to below 4% in Nov/Dec, of 2007

Flash jumped to 8.6% in Jan/Feb and then even further to 13% in March/April, but fell back to 8% in May and June. In short, Flash has fluctuated from 4% to 13% of Top 8s over the year it was legal and unrestricted with an average of 8.25%.

The biggest spike in Flash came with the printing of Reveillark, but Flash has since fallen closer to its baseline since then, especially with the printing of Painter’s Servant, to which it fell back to its baseline level.   Painter's Servant really hurt Flash as an archetype.

it's tournament winnings, not simply top 8, are almost as modest.  Flash won a total of 10 tournaments of 33 or more players from June 20, 2007 to June 20, 2008.   That is out of total of 92 tournaments.  In other words, it won 10.8% of tournaments in a one year time period.   

It's hard to imagine how those numbers could possibly be higher, even in this environment, with Merchant Scroll and Brainstorm restricted. 

[Bongo]

The problem is not that that blue is the dominant color.  It will always be the dominant color in Vintage.   The problem is that Mana Drain decks are an absurd percentage of all top 8s.   They are almost 50% of every single top 8.   From a health of the format/diversity perspective that is simply unacceptable in the long term. 

I don't have a problem with there being a best "engine" in Vintage, but there are limits that most reasonable can agree on.   

Quoted for truth and emphasis.

Restricting Mana Drain would have a positive effect in my opinion, because the draw engines like Thirst, IntuAK, Meditate etc. become a lot slower. One could even make the case for an unrestriction of Fact if Mana Drain is restricted.

Looking at the statistical appearance of a restricted card is a good indicator if a card will get used or not (with Gush being the exception since it is an engine card). In that regard, Grim Monolith, Crop Rotation, Burning Wish, Enlightened Tutor and other stuff would be safe to unrestrict. Interestingly, Ponder (which a lot of people thought was too weak to restrict) still gets played as a singleton (not that much in Tez), and would probably get played in greater numbers if unrestricted. So that would mean that Ponder is more powerful than those cards. There are three logical consequences then:

1. Leave everything restricted
2. Unrestrict Grim Monolith, Crop Rotation etc. and leave Ponder
3. Unrestrict Monolith etc. and unrestrict Ponder

It'll be interesting to see if Wizards decide to do something. I personally prefer option 2, or even option 3.

[Troy_Costisick]

The problem is not that that blue is the dominant color.  It will always be the dominant color in Vintage.   The problem is that Mana Drain decks are an absurd percentage of all top 8s.   They are almost 50% of every single top 8.   From a health of the format/diversity perspective that is simply unacceptable in the long term. 

I don't have a problem with there being a best "engine" in Vintage, but there are limits that most reasonable can agree on.   

Quoted for truth and emphasis.

Restricting Mana Drain would have a positive effect in my opinion, because the draw engines like Thirst, IntuAK, Meditate etc. become a lot slower. One could even make the case for an unrestriction of Fact if Mana Drain is restricted.

How in the world you can go from what Stephen said to what you said is beyond me.  You take "I don't have a problem with there being a best 'engine' in Vintage" to mean, "Restricting Mana Drain would be awesome!"  Look carefully at what Stephen, myself, and other people are saying: don't restrict anything; instead, unrestrict a few key cards to allow more competitive archetypes to flourish.

EDIT:  Let me kind of soften that a bit.  I can understand someone's desire to see a more diverse metagame.  Heck, I'm a major advocate of deck diversity myself.  I can also see how someone might feel that restricting Mana Drain is a potential way to do that.  For me, personally, I don't care that much for restrictions.  The idea of decreasing the cardpool correlates in my mind to decreasing the very thing that makes Magic so much fun.  Therefore, the position I would take is: "Before we try restricting a certain card to promote deck diversity, let's try unrestricting a few cards first."  Now if those unrestrictions don't work, I would be open to talk of restricting Mana Drain, Tfk, or whatever else.  I certainly don't hold the position that certain cards should be immune to consideration for restriction.  But before we go down that road, I would prefer trying to enlarge the card pool as much as we feasibly can.

Peace,

-Troy

[tito del monte]

One thing I find interesting about some of the numbers being quoted (as far as I understand) is that they make no difference between sanctioned and unsanctioned Vintage (broadly speaking Europe and the US) - is this something the DCI should bear in mind when making restrictions? I appreciate that US players are by far the most vocal Vintage community - but as their events aren't technically within the DCI's remit, should a dominant deck in that metagame really impact on the banned/restricted list?

I certainly don't want to create some kind of divide and am playing devil's advocate to a degree, but I wonder if that enters into the DCI's thinking.

[Troy_Costisick]

One thing I find interesting about some of the numbers being quoted (as far as I understand) is that they make no difference between sanctioned and unsanctioned Vintage (broadly speaking Europe and the US) - is this something the DCI should bear in mind when making restrictions? I appreciate that US players are by far the most vocal Vintage community - but as their events aren't technically within the DCI's remit, should a dominant deck in that metagame really impact on the banned/restricted list?

To my knowledge, the DCI has always communicated a willingness to restrict/unrestrict cards based largely on whatever consensus the Vintage community can come to without any regard to the points you raise.  If there is one thing I do have to give credit to the DCI for, it's the fact that they really do listen to the community.  Sometimes it takes them a while to act....but they do listen.

Peace,

-Troy

[Purple Hat]

The problem is not that that blue is the dominant color.  It will always be the dominant color in Vintage.   The problem is that Mana Drain decks are an absurd percentage of all top 8s.   They are almost 50% of every single top 8.   From a health of the format/diversity perspective that is simply unacceptable in the long term. 

People complained about Gush-engine decks being dominant, but they were at a little more than half of the numbers that Mana Drain decks are putting up right now.   

People also used to complain about Trinisphere decks, but they never even got close to the numbers that Drains are putting up right now either.   

If Dark Ritual decks ever rise above more than 15% of the field, people immediately begin to complain.   

Mana Drain performance now dwarfs those concerns. 

I don't have a problem with there being a best "engine" in Vintage, but there are limits that most reasonable can agree on.   

But Steve, look at what gets restricted and what the result is.  In general we have restricted blue draw/search spell after blue draw/search spell every time we restrict one something else springs up.  And it's not just drain archetypes because you're also seeing the use of blue draw which was subsequently restricted in non-drain decks.  We restrict gifts, brainstorm, Fact, Gush....now thirst is on the chopping block.  These are not cards that are exclusively used with drains.  Gifts was played in ritual shells, brainstorm was played in everything, gush decks rarely stretched into drains.

The problem isn't any one specific card.  The problem is the mechanics.  Whatever we do with drain there will be another best counter.  Then we'll restrict that.  Then something else will spring up....and we'll restrict that.  for whatever reason we always come back to the opinion that at some point we'll restrict enough stuff that we'll end up with white and green decks that are viable, and it's just not going to work that way.  Before we get to that point we'll pass the threshold of a restricted list at critical mass and be playing highlander.

[Smmenen]

  Whatever we do with drain there will be another best counter.  Then we'll restrict that. 

This is simply not true. 


 First of all, it's a slippery slope fallacy.  The slope is not slippery.

There is absolutely no reason to think that if Mana Drain is restricted that another card of the same mechanic -- a counterspell - would be restricted.    Legacy has shown that there is no other counterspell that even remotely approaches the power of Mana Drain.   The most played counterspell after Force of Will is Counterbalance, and that card sucks in Vintage for obvious reasons.

Take a look at January's data on morphling.de for most played cards:

1.   Force of Will   (220/55/4.0)
2.   Polluted Delta   (167/57/2.9)
3.   Flooded Strand   (135/53/2.5)
4.   Mana Drain   (129/34/3.8)
5.   Underground Sea   (121/47/2.6)
6.   Thirst for Knowledge   (120/32/3.8)
7.   Wasteland   (107/31/3.5)
8.   Tormod's Crypt   (101/47/2.1)
9.   Duress   (97/39/2.5)
10.   Chalice of the Void   (84/23/3.7)
11.   Black Lotus   (75/75/1.0)
12.   Mox Sapphire   (75/75/1.0)
13.   Ancestral Recall   (70/70/1.0)
14.   Mox Emerald   (68/68/1.0)
15.   Mox Jet   (67/67/1.0)
16.   Volcanic Island   (66/27/2.4)
17.   Mox Pearl   (65/65/1.0)
18.   Leyline of the Void   (64/16/4.0)
19.   Mox Ruby   (64/64/1.0)
20.   Pithing Needle   (64/32/2.0)
21.   Sol Ring   (59/59/1.0)
22.   Tarmogoyf   (59/15/3.9)
23.   Thoughtseize   (58/22/2.6)
24.   Time Walk   (58/58/1.0)
25.   Tolarian Academy   (57/57/1.0)

Look at December stats:

1.   Force of Will   (360/90/4.0)
2.   Polluted Delta   (283/96/2.9)
3.   Mana Drain   (248/63/3.9)
4.   Underground Sea   (227/82/2.8)
5.   Duress   (203/67/3.0)
6.   Thirst for Knowledge   (199/53/3.8)
7.   Flooded Strand   (195/81/2.4)
8.   Wasteland   (179/52/3.4)
9.   Tormod's Crypt   (161/85/1.9)
10.   Chalice of the Void   (127/35/3.6)
11.   Black Lotus   (125/125/1.0)
12.   Pithing Needle   (118/56/2.1)
13.   Mox Sapphire   (113/113/1.0)
14.   Mox Jet   (112/112/1.0)
15.   Leyline of the Void
15.   Leyline of the Void   (111/30/3.7)
16.   Volcanic Island   (110/44/2.5)
17.   Dark Confidant   (109/28/3.9)
18.   Mox Emerald   (106/106/1.0)
19.   Mox Ruby   (106/106/1.0)
20.   Mox Pearl   (101/101/1.0)
21.   Ancestral Recall   (100/100/1.0)
22.   Red Elemental Blast   (94/45/2.1)
23.   Sol Ring   (91/91/1.0)
24.   Tarmogoyf   (91/25/3.6)
25.   Thoughtseize   (91/32/2.8)


Mana Drain is the SECOND most played Spell [/b] in Vintage Top 8s.    Not counterspell.  It's the second most played SPELl.

Even beyond that, Mana Drain is the third or fourth most played CARD in Vintage top 8s.   That means that Mana Drain has more top 8 appearances than basic Island or Underground Sea.   No one can possibly think that's healthy. 


Take a look at May, 2008, the last full month before the June 20 restrictions took effect:

1.   Force of Will   (384/96/4.0)
2.   Brainstorm   (380/95/4.0)
3.   Leyline of the Void   (354/89/4.0)
4.   Polluted Delta   (294/95/3.1)
5.   Underground Sea   (243/90/2.7)
6.   Merchant Scroll   (220/72/3.1)
7.   Flooded Strand   (216/85/2.5)
8.   Duress   (188/72/2.6)
9.   Gush   (186/48/3.9)
10.   Tormod's Crypt   (148/72/2.1)
11.   Wasteland   (144/43/3.3)
12.   Ponder   (143/47/3.0)
13.   Black Lotus   (133/133/1.0)
14.   Volcanic Island   (129/59/2.2)
15.   Red Elemental Blast   (128/55/2.3)
16.   Mox Sapphire   (127/127/1.0)
17.   Tropical Island   (125/73/1.7)
18.   Mox Jet   (123/123/1.0)
19.   Chalice of the Void   (113/31/3.6)
20.   Thoughtseize   (113/52/2.2)
21.   Mox Ruby   (109/109/1.0)
22.   Mishra's Workshop   (108/27/4.0)
23.   Dark Confidant   (105/28/3.8)
24.   Ancestral Recall   (102/102/1.0)
25.   Extirpate   (102/54/1.9)

In terms of appearances in top 8s, Mana Drain is CRUSHING Merchant Scroll, Gush, and Ponder.   The only card it is comparable to is Brainstorm.    And ALL four of those cards were restricted.   If those cards were restricted for producing lesser dominant decks, lesser dominant engines, AND saw much less play, it's hard to make a case that Mana Drain isn't worse than all of those cards. 

As to your point that another counterspell would be restricted if Drain were, well, the third most played counterspell is Red Elemental Blast.  After that, waaaaay down the line, is Stifle. It seems very unlikely that if Mana Drain were restricted that Red Elemental Blast or Stifle would ever see restriction.  Neither card is a superswingy tempo card in the way that Mana Drain is, giving you a burst of colorless mana on your next main phase.   

Then something else will spring up....and we'll restrict that.  for whatever reason we always come back to the opinion that at some point we'll restrict enough stuff that we'll end up with white and green decks that are viable, and it's just not going to work that way.  Before we get to that point we'll pass the threshold of a restricted list at critical mass and be playing highlander.

As I said, the slope is not slippery.   I do agree that there is a danger that a certain number of restrictions could create a cascading restricted list in the sense that more restrictions make it more likely that other restrictions will follow, but there are three responses to that.   

First of all,  that does not mean that they will be.  History shows that one restriction does not lead to the result of further restrictions.   For example, the restriction of Trinisphere did not lead to further restrictions.   The restriction of Lion's Eye Diamond and Burning Wish did not lead to further restrictions.  The restriction of Fact or Fiction did not lead to further restrictions.   While more restrictions did eventually occur, that was not a result of the previous restrictions.    It is likely, simply as a matter of historical statistics that another card, someday, will be restricted.   But that isn't an argument against restriction.

Imagine if the DCI used that standard for Extended.   They would say: we can't restrict this card we need to restrict because we may restrict cards some day down the road.   It makes no sense. 

Second, it's really too late to put the genie back in the bottle.   The DCI has restricted Gifts Ungiven, Brainstorm, Ponder, Flash, Trinisphere, Merchant Scroll, and Gush for creating decks that were weaker, less dominant, and less played in Top 8s than Mana Drain. 

Third, that's why I think that the best solution is not to restrict Mana Drain, if Mana Drain's dominance persists, but to unrestrict Gush, Ponder, and Flash, to help build decks that can compete with Drain decks.   Alternatively, restrict Thirst first.   All of the other major blue draw engines have been restricted, and Thirst for Knowledge is better than Fact or Fiction.   Why not Thirst?

[Nehptis]

Third, that's why I think that the best solution is not to restrict Mana Drain, if Mana Drain's dominance persists, but to unrestrict Gush, Ponder, and Flash, to help build decks that can compete with Drain decks.  Alternatively, restrict Thirst first.   All of the other major blue draw engines have been restricted, and Thirst for Knowledge is better than Fact or Fiction.   Why not Thirst?

I must admit that between Troy's last few posts and Steve's comments quoted here, I am making a 180 degree turn on my beliefs.  I'm not going to take my arguments about Time Vault / Key being an abomination off the table.  But, in the past whenever these discussions came up I usually landed squarely in the camp of "Restrict in order to neuter dominating decks".  Now, I'm strongly reconsidering my thought process.

Maybe, more diversity via unrestrictions like Steve and Troy have suggested are the answer.  For years now it seems like we have been tightening the noose on Vintage to snuff out a dominate deck.  And each time a new deck surfaces that starts the process all over again.  Granted there are some inherent risks in unrestrictions.  For example, if an unrestriction enables a dominating deck to emerge then all the Drain.dec players simply switch to that new deck and we haven't resolved anything.  Hopefully, though with proper analysis of the B&R list some targeted unrestrictions could allow a balanced diversity of decks to co-exist.  Anything though has to be better than a Drain vs. Fish metagame that I feel we are in.

[nineisnoone]

I wouldn't unrestrict Ponder though unless the intent was to bring back a much-weakened Grow as well, and thus bring Gush with it.

Why wouldn't you unrestrict Ponder if it didn't also bring Gush along with it?

[zeus-online]

I think the real blue culprits have been restricted: Brainstorm and merchant scroll.

Look at type1 before the fetchlands entered the format:
Keeper and Mono blue was the best mana drain decks.
Then came the fetchlands which brought with them brainstorm...brainstorm and fetches enabled so many blue decks.
Without BS and fetchlands i doubt many of the restricted cards really need to be there.
I don't think mana drain per se is that much of a problem, people have dealt with it for ages.
The combo wins sure made drain better...And now we have a  two card combo that wins the game on the spot.
If time vault was banned, or the fetchlands where removed, drain decks would be brought down from their throne...not unplayable, probably still good...but with other decks having a better chance at stopping the drain decks...without 4 polluted delta and 4 flooded strand the drain decks would be just as vulnerable to mana denial as before. Those two lands have been on top of the the "most played" list since they entered the format. In order to play a consistent multi-color control strategy without those two lands the drain decks would be forced to run more duals which opens them up to wasteland, magus of the moon, blood moon, back to basics....heck they might even need to run city of brass again.

The combo control archetype was born from fetchlands and brainstorms...Brainstorms are gone, but the fetch lands still remain.

If people are annoyed with drain decks, why not hit them where it hurts?

Imagine tezzeret with a mana base like this:
9 Artifacts
1 Academy
1 LoA
2 Fetch
4 Underground sea
4 Volcanic island
4 Basic island

Much more vulnerable to non-basic hate.

Not saying it's the best answer, but consider the impact a restriction on fetchlands would have.

Cheap blue spells and a strong mana-base have been the backbone for any blue control deck for years now. Cards such as FoF and gifts would be much harder to cast if the drain decks where forced to play more nonbasics.
Combo escapes somewhat from the problem by pure speed, workshops and fishy decks gain a huge boost from being able to waste earlier at more opportune moments.
The cheap blue spells have been dealt with, but the mana bases haven't changed a bit.

/Zeus

[Tha Gunslinga]

What I find funny is that while Drain is clearly ridiculously dominant, and has been FOREVER, people think it's some sort of sacred cow.  Remember another sacred cow?  I called for Brainstorm's restriction for years, and look what happened to that one.  Drain can easily get the axe, and while players will complain about it just as much as Brainstorm, the metagame will adapt.

[bluemage55]

What I find funny is that while Drain is clearly ridiculously dominant, and has been FOREVER, people think it's some sort of sacred cow.  Remember another sacred cow?  I called for Brainstorm's restriction for years, and look what happened to that one.  Drain can easily get the axe, and while players will complain about it just as much as Brainstorm, the metagame will adapt.

Remember how badly the restriction of Brainstorm affected Vintage?

Restricting Brainstorm meant that the new best card selection engine was TfK.  Guess what archetype utilizes those?  *Gasp*  Drains!

[Marske]

Ok, I thought about not joining in on this discussion again because this thread is bordering on insanity... Lets look at some of the stuff that's been making this thread go so insane in my book.

Because Mana Drain is "dominant" we need to:

• Unrestrict card(s)
• Restrict card(s)

Both these options will do nothing and I'll tell you why... if you unrestrict <insert broken card> that's been "broken" before then obviously that card will become the new subject of "we need to restrict this ASAP" Lets take Burning wish for example I know people are saying yeah but TPS got Grim tutor now so that wouldn't see much play... Guys Grim tutor replaced Death wish... Imagine playing against a storm deck that can grab they're Will back after you've extirpated it or replay it 4 times... that deck would become the new "deck to beat" or at least a very big contender.

I've read a lot of wacky ideas... (restrict fetches ?!) but people will always find something to bitch about. I remember it clearly.. Patrick Chapin said after the brainstorm restrictions "Restrict everything until Mana drain is the best card and then restrict that keep on doing that until CB/top is good" people will always find some sort of strategy to bitch about.

Lets take a look at the metagame breakdown of one of my tournaments:

Link
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=37005.0

The metagame Breakdown:
The decks will be place in appearance of the Swiss standings.

BUG
BUW Solution
2 UW Arti Agro (1 homebrew, 1 Harlequin)
4 MUD
2 Intuition Tendrils ( 1 with red for Recoup)
2 Control Slaver
2 Jedi Mind Twist
5 Oath
Bomberman
2 Painter
4 Goblins
2 Tps ( 1 Homebrew, 1 Smmenen)
3 Ad Nauseam Tendrils
2 Grimlong
4 Fish (decks with small creatures and disruption)
1 Tezz Control
2 Drain Tendrils

Does this look like a drain infested meta ?! Sure we have decks that pack Drains, but just take a look at the decks at the top. (small note BUG fish won the event) why is it that we in Europe aren't having the same troubles you guys are having ? Maybe because we see a more diverse metagame or maybe because you guys just like to play with drains more fact is... Drains decks can be handled, and Tezzeret has rough matchups against stuff like Ichorid, Goblins, TPS etc.

Drain decks are dominant yes.. but to say they are the best deck... I'll just have to disagree on that... sure they make up the biggest part of the meta game. But take a look at for example Extended, Zoo was 1/3 of the field at the last PT, does that make Zoo dominant because everybody plays it ? I think not...

Well that's the last of my input in this thread, you guys really need to start dealing with drains on a different way..

[reaperbong]

Let's just go off the deep end here since restriction talk really get's on my nerves.

If it was up to me the restricted list would look like the Power 8 + Yawgmoth's Will and 3 Tutors. and even then i'm not sure... In a perfect world there would be no restrictions because WOTC could just print better cards to counter overpowered cards. 4x Yawgmoth's Will a problem? so then a permanant Tormod's Crypt with flash gets printed, 8x Tormod's Crypt would do the trick don't you think? Instead people talk about even banning the Yawgwin.. smh. or for Moxen print a zero costing Null Rod with flash that only targets the opponent. Exaggerated I know, but you get my point.

Ok enough crazy talk, so anyway...

I see nobody wants to argue against the theory that 3x Mana Drain would simply be replaced by 3x Counterspell/Mana Leak/Negate/whatever and Tezzeret would still dominate. Ok great so then what does REB or Stifle have to do with anything? Restricting Mana Drain wouldn't just bump up the next 'counterspells' on the list, that's an illogical assumption, it would simply make 3x Counterspell viable and Tezz would be a tiny bit slower... sometimes.

And all those statistics being cited are meaningless until someone can answer this:

If Mana Drain is the 3rd or 4th most played card in Vintage why is nobody calling for the restriction of Force of Will, Polluted Delta or Flooded Strand? Others have asked this but were apparently ignored. They are all unrestricted auto-includes in Tez decks, and all played just as often as Mana Drain or Thirst. Everyone knows that FoW is superior, is it even possible to make a case for the restriction of Mana Drain and not FoW without being a complete hypocrite? Go ahead I'll wait..

Also can I assume that since 14 unrestricted cards get played more then Time Walk, then perhaps 14 cards need to be restricted or unrestrict Time Walk? Or what then?

Haha yea right, my point is using such data to support restrictions is completely misleading. And fucka argument citing anyting in Legacy as well, it's got nothing to do with Vintage.

Marske just summed it up for all of us though: people will always find something to bitch about.

Ain't that the damn truth?

Edit: Also would just like to note that my netdecked Tez build was crushed by Goblins two matches in a row last month. It's a really tough match against Goblins, which i've heard is hardly played in the US but is really popular here.

[neotrophy]

4x Yawgmoth's Will a problem? so then a permanant Tormod's Crypt with flash gets printed, 8x Tormod's Crypt would do the trick don't you think? Instead people talk about even banning the Yawgwin.. smh. or for Moxen print a zero costing Null Rod with flash that only targets the opponent. Exaggerated I know, but you get my point.

The issue is that such cards destroy entire strategies in other formats. Wizards have been doing a great job recently of printing cards for Vintage which also affect other formats in good ways.  They're simply not going to print cards like the ones you describe for a format that makes them basically no money directly.

And all those statistics being cited are meaningless until someone can answer this:

If Mana Drain is the 3rd or 4th most played card in Vintage why is nobody calling for the restriction of Force of Will, Polluted Delta or Flooded Strand? Others have asked this but were apparently ignored. They are all unrestricted auto-includes in Tez decks, and all played just as often as Mana Drain or Thirst. Everyone knows that FoW is superior, is it even possible to make a case for the restriction of Mana Drain and not FoW without being a complete hypocrite? Go ahead I'll wait..

Because Force of Will, Polluted Delta, and Flooded Strand are, have been, and will continue to be used in a very wide variety of deck archetypes and shells.  They do not represent a huge swing in tempo or mana and stupid unfairness like, say Black Lotus (another card that, if unrestricted would see play as a 4 of in almost every correctly built deck).

Mana Drain is used in 2 deck shells with little variety in the strategy of the decks which use it.  Its very nature lends itself to certain strategies, and only limitted sets of those are viable.

Haha yea right, my point is using such data to support restrictions is completely misleading. And fucka argument citing anyting in Legacy as well, it's got nothing to do with Vintage.

So, if we don't base restriction arguments on tournament data, what do we base them on? 

Marske just summed it up for all of us though: people will always find something to bitch about.

Ain't that the damn truth?

Oh yeah, it is.  But I think that the data shows that there is a potential problem here.  There's no harm in discussing potential fixes to a possibly emerging problem.  Changes to the restricted list come around so infrequently that we should discuss these things at length, we should know what we want as a community and make our voices heard.

Edit: Also would just like to note that my netdecked Tez build was crushed by Goblins two matches in a row last month. It's a really tough match against Goblins, which i've heard is hardly played in the US but is really popular here.

The problem is that Goblins, while a good deck against Drains is not a generally good deck.  The very warping of the metagame that we're talking about probably factored into the choice of the Goblin deck that you faced.  A metagame that consists of one archetype, decks designed to beat that archetype, and a small smattering of other random stuff is not healthy.  It's the exact kind of metagame that caused the banning of some nine cards at once in Standard not so long ago, and lead to the only ever emergency bannings before a set was even legal.

[Qube]

Playing Magic should be fun!
And if only all the funny and nice cards are restricted just because they're broken, that wouldn't be that magic anymore... Vintage is broken
Seriously, when did you had more fun on the play: In time you could play 4 Brainstrom, 4 Merchant Scroll, 4 Gush etc. // or now with 4 Mana Drain, 4 Thirsts, etc.?

For me it was in the Gush-era. But I can see that BS should be restricted, also Merchant Scroll. But not Gush, Ponder and Flash.

And if those cards are unrestricted, also fact or fiction could be. because then some play with drainbased decks others play gushbased decks. That would allows several drawengines.

so...

[Marske]

I can't seem to leave this thread alone...  So once again I'll chime in..

And if those cards are unrestricted, also fact or fiction could be. because then some play with drainbased decks others play gushbased decks. That would allows several drawengines.

People would play Gush-based Drain decks and drop TFK... can you imagine countering something with UU / drawing 2 cards FOR FREE in a counter war ?!?! Or drain would become useless but you'll have the same menace running around like we had during the previous "gush-bond" era. This would obviously turn Tezzeret into a bigger monster then it is now.

How is Fact going to stop Drains from being played more ?! I think Tezzeret players would love to play with Drains and a couple FoF's and it would even make the deck more consistent (yeah way to go there) also lets put 4 Ponder in the deck seems to help out with making it even MORE inconsistent... *ok I'll stop with the sarcasm* but I hope you guys see what I'm trying to say...

The problem is that Goblins, while a good deck against Drains is not a generally good deck.  The very warping of the metagame that we're talking about probably factored into the choice of the Goblin deck that you faced.  A metagame that consists of one archetype, decks designed to beat that archetype, and a small smattering of other random stuff is not healthy.  It's the exact kind of metagame that caused the banning of some nine cards at once in Standard not so long ago, and lead to the only ever emergency bannings before a set was even legal.

Sorry come again ?! Goblins played itself into the top 8 of Eurovino (350 people iirc) only to lose to ichorid... so if we are talking statistics here that's pretty much an awesome performance and if more good players would play that deck correctly it's definitely a "good" deck. But then again that's in Europe and what do we know ? (with us having all these small level events and all)... *sorry can't stop the sarcasm*

It just basically comes down to this guys... there is ALWAYS going to be a "dominating" deck in a format that has every magic card available... You even see dominating decks in standard they just get "reset" more often with the rotation of blocks. But having a meta in which you have a top deck, a deck that prey's on the top deck and many other cool idea's viable and able to perform sounds like pretty healthy to me.

All you are doing is making Vintage "rotate" like other non-eternal formats do with these kinda actions (ban / unban card X because strategy Y is dominating etc) Sure I see the need in talking about "keeping our format healthy" but I don't think you can compare Drains with Gush-bond as engines go.

[Qube]

And if those cards are unrestricted, also fact or fiction could be. because then some play with drainbased decks others play gushbased decks. That would allows several drawengines.

People would play Gush-based Drain decks and drop TFK... can you imagine countering something with UU / drawing 2 cards FOR FREE in a counter war ?!?! Or drain would become useless but you'll have the same menace running around like we had during the previous "gush-bond" era. This would obviously turn Tezzeret into a bigger monster then it is now.

How is Fact going to stop Drains from being played more ?! I think Tezzeret players would love to play with Drains and a couple FoF's and it would even make the deck more consistent (yeah way to go there) also lets put 4 Ponder in the deck seems to help out with making it even MORE inconsistent... *ok I'll stop with the sarcasm* but I hope you guys see what I'm trying to say...

Yea but there are more decks playing without drains and went t8. (just 2 samples)
http://www.deckcheck.net/deck.php?id=15984
http://www.deckcheck.net/deck.php?id=15899

or at least run 2 Mana Drain mostly not more. that would sure decrease the dominant of Mana Drain. And if alot players will play drains and gush, I'm sure more player will go for REB and destroy that drainomania... Do you seriously think there are only that tezz.dec available after such a unrestriction?

[Marske]

@Qube,
I think tezz would be dropped entirely... people will just start playing "Time Vault decks" that are even more deticated to putting this little 2 card combo into play with Drains as counters any random storm card (Woah ETW seems nice here) would do as a kill and obv Tinker - DSC. I have no doubt that something REALLY broken would be build if people have acces to:

• 4 Drain
• 4 FoF
• 4 Ponder
• 4 Gush
• 4 Enlightend Tutor

Any combination of these cards being unrestricted would make this meta we have now become even more focussed on getting TV / Key going. Can you imagine the following play being fair:

Turn 1: Tutor for Vault Turn 2 grab Vault play land (having drain mana open) and being able to draw 2 cards for free (Gush) or could you dream of disrupting such a deck ? Nothing short of turn 1 trinisphere with COUNTER backup would suffice... can you imagine if people would start throwing Fastbond in that mix ? Or even worse... Burning Wish in such a deck ?... think about it... sure this example is of the top of my head and more broken stuff could be done but this already sounds pretty insane to me.

I don't think in the current meta Ponder AND Gush should be allowed to exist together as 4 of (sadly) Gush makes Wastelands a Joke, gives you 2 cards for free and even without Brainstorm and scroll combining it with ponder would still let you Chain them together.

And for the Record although it's totally of topic... I think Painter is the better Drain deck... Infinite turns doesn't mean "you win" no library does... and they play more counters then most Tezz players oh and Vindicates for Tezz (Reb)

[Qube]

Turn 1: Tutor for Vault Turn 2 grab Vault play land (having drain mana open) and being able to draw 2 cards for free (Gush) or could you dream of disrupting such a deck ? Nothing short of turn 1 trinisphere with COUNTER backup would suffice... can you imagine if people would start throwing Fastbond in that mix ? Or even worse... Burning Wish in such a deck ?... think about it... sure this example is of the top of my head and more broken stuff could be done but this already sounds pretty insane to me.

Disruption agaist such one:
Spheres(+thorns,trinis)
Duress/Seize
Reb/Pyro
Null Rod (against the vault&key)
Chalice of the Void
Mishra's Ank (was also played against gush.decs)
Artifact-destroy

Is this really too less?

[Troy_Costisick]

I wouldn't unrestrict Ponder though unless the intent was to bring back a much-weakened Grow as well, and thus bring Gush with it.

Why wouldn't you unrestrict Ponder if it didn't also bring Gush along with it?

I know you addressed that comment to Steve, but if you don't mind I'll jump in with my thoughts.  Feel free to ignore them if they don't address your question.

I would also be basically against unrestricting Ponder unless Gush came off the list as well.  However, if Gush were to be unrestricted, I wouldn't feel that the DCI should be compelled to bring Ponder off too.  I know that's confusing, so I'll try to explain.

Cards like Gush, Flash, Entomb, Bazzar, Shop, Dark Ritual, Mana Drain, and Oath are all foundational cards for Deck Archetypes.  Kept off the restricted list, they allow a certain kind of deck (or decks) to be played.  Put on the restricted list, they kill those decks outright; ie, you can't play Flash combo or Shop Prison without 4 Flashes or 4 Shops.  

Everything else that makes up a Gush deck or a Flash deck for instance can be restricted, as far as I'm considered (although I wouldn't really want them to be) because as long as the engine that builds the deck is left in tact as a 4-of, the archetype can still survive.  Putting Ponder, BS, Scroll, TFK, Intuition, Strategic Planning, or whatever other card on the restricted list is fine.  Those cards simply assist the engine in driving towards the win.  There's enough of them out there that deck pilots will adapt so they can continue playing their deck and engine of choice.  So unrestricting Ponder is really pointless.  It doesn't provide a foundation for a new archetype, it only smooths out the draws of archetypes that already exist.  Now, if Ponder is pulled off the list to allow Gush to be pulled off at the same time, then that's terrific!  We can play Gush strategies again.  However, if Gush is pulled off and Ponder is left on, that's just as good, IMHO.  We can play Gush strategies again; we'll just have to be more clever in choosing our cantrips.

Does that make any sense at all?

Peace,

-Troy

[Marske]

Disruption agaist such one:
Spheres(+thorns,trinis)
Duress/Seize
Reb/Pyro
Null Rod (against the vault&key)
Chalice of the Void
Mishra's Ank (was also played against gush.decs)
Artifact-destroy

Is this really too less?

If this works against super high powered drain.dec then why isn't this effective now with "normal" tezz running around ... I really do hope you are getting what I'm saying with this...you are basically agreeing with me that there is enough disruption as is (so nothing should be changed) if they decide to bring back Gush and ponder you'll not hear me complain but if they choose to leave them be it's also fine..

@Troy,
I totally get what you're saying and I agree with you. (just wanted to note this)

[Qube]

If this works against super high powered drain.dec then why isn't this effective now with "normal" tezz running around ... I really do hope you are getting what I'm saying with this...you are basically agreeing with me that there is enough disruption as is (so nothing should be changed) if they decide to bring back Gush and ponder you'll not hear me complain but if they choose to leave them be it's also fine..

I think I know what you mean. But isn't it also because alot people think it's easier to play also tezz than against tezz? And as also mentioned before, the deck is beatable. I think every deck is beatable. You just have know the deck you play against and what is good against...

about Gush without Ponder I also agree. But that why we talk only about the unrestriction of Gush? It's in mostly every list of players who say what they think to unrestrict...

[Marske]

I think I know what you mean. Smile But isn't it also because alot people think it's easier to play also tezz than against tezz? And as also mentioned before, the deck is beatable. I think every deck is beatable. You just have know the deck you play against and what is good against...

I think you dear sir get the cake !! Thats the single reason why Drain decks aren't dominating in Europe... less people think it's easier to play with tezz then against it and people overhere like picking drain decks apart.

about Gush without Ponder I also agree. But that why we talk only about the unrestriction of Gush? It's in mostly every list of players who say what they think to unrestrict...

Ok this is going to be very strange for me because the deck I started with in Vintage was 4 gush GaT and that deck still holds a softspot with me.... but I don't think Gush should be unrestricted.. because like I said although it looks harmless having 2 cards and your mana base protected from wastelands for FREE is a real big deal.

[Qube]

I think I know what you mean. Smile But isn't it also because alot people think it's easier to play also tezz than against tezz? And as also mentioned before, the deck is beatable. I think every deck is beatable. You just have know the deck you play against and what is good against...

I think you dear sir get the cake !! Thats the single reason why Drain decks aren't dominating in Europe... less people think it's easier to play with tezz then against it and people overhere like picking drain decks apart.

That's why I love the metas here in europe.

about Gush without Ponder I also agree. But that why we talk only about the unrestriction of Gush? It's in mostly every list of players who say what they think to unrestrict...
Ok this is going to be very strange for me because the deck I started with in Vintage was 4 gush GaT and that deck still holds a softspot with me.... but I don't think Gush should be unrestricted.. because like I said although it looks harmless having 2 cards and your mana base protected from wastelands for FREE is a real big deal.

It is a big deal, but look at the time where the hole thing (gush,scroll,bstorm,ponder) where played: there where more archetypes played, and more duresseffects played then in any other period. But it was a more interessting meta then now. IMHO

[Tha Gunslinga]

As far as the "Drain is not dominating globally," well, I went to morphling.de, which is a global site with global data, and here are their top cards from January top 8s:

January 2009 Top 15
Vintage (12 events)
1. Force of Will (220)
2. Polluted Delta (167)
3. Flooded Strand (135)
4. Mana Drain (129)
5. Underground Sea (121)
6. Thirst for Knowledge (120)
7. Wasteland (107)
8. Tormod's Crypt (101)
9. Duress (97)
10. Chalice of the Void (84)

So, Drain and Thirst.

Then we go back to December:

1.   Force of Will   (360/90/4.0)
2.   Polluted Delta   (283/96/2.9)
3.   Mana Drain   (248/63/3.9)
4.   Underground Sea   (227/82/2.8)
5.   Duress   (203/67/3.0)
6.   Thirst for Knowledge   (199/53/3.8)
7.   Flooded Strand   (195/81/2.4)
8.   Wasteland   (179/52/3.4)
9.   Tormod's Crypt   (161/85/1.9)
10.   Chalice of the Void   (127/35/3.6)

Drain and Thirst.

November:

1.   Force of Will   (388/97/4.0)
2.   Polluted Delta   (275/100/2.8)
3.   Mana Drain   (265/71/3.7)
4.   Thirst for Knowledge   (241/64/3.8)
5.   Flooded Strand   (237/93/2.5)
6.   Underground Sea   (222/85/2.6)
7.   Tormod's Crypt   (208/112/1.9)
8.   Wasteland   (193/58/3.3)
9.   Duress   (184/70/2.6)
10.   Volcanic Island   (175/60/2.9)

Drain and Thirst.

October:

1.   Force of Will   (476/119/4.0)
2.   Polluted Delta   (344/119/2.9)
3.   Mana Drain   (291/77/3.8)
4.   Flooded Strand   (284/114/2.5)
5.   Underground Sea   (278/99/2.8)
6.   Thirst for Knowledge   (236/65/3.6)
7.   Duress   (229/82/2.8)
8.   Tormod's Crypt   (225/119/1.9)
9.   Wasteland   (216/65/3.3)
10.   Chalice of the Void   (167/48/3.5)

Drain and Thirst,


SEE A PATTERN?


In fact, if you search morphling.de for the card "Mana Drain," you get 2314 decks out of 7604 total decks on the site, meaning Mana Drain has been in an average of 30% of top 8s since 2002.  "Thirst for Knowledge" yields 1225 results, meaning Thirst has been in 16% of top 8 decks, which is impressive considering it wasn't printed until 2003.

For the record, Ichorid is found in 237 decks, and there are 328 Goblins lists, as opposed to 1400 Goblin Welder decks.

[Qube]

allright, but we have to clarify: In Europe there are alot less tournaments then in USA. (and if it's a global statistic, the % of the european decks have much lower presens) I think we should look to the tournaments himself.

[Marske]

@Tha Gunslinga,
I never said that we don't see Drains... because X% of the field HAS Drains doesn't make them dominant (look at the Zoo example I gave earlier). Also loads of tournaments aren't reported on Morphling and Qube was right when he said we have less tournaments then you guys.

I'm not saying Drains aren't dominating... I'm just saying that there is nothing wrong with our current meta, but then again... I didn't have a problem with our previous meta either so it could just be me. If everybody hates seeing drains... STOP PLAYING THEM or find hate to deal with them. But you gotta look at the statistics, while Drain can be seen as an "engine" it's not the same as having Gush-Bond and the statistics show the second best counterspell in the game gets played a lot which is fine by me...

BTW my definition of "dominating" isn't "most decks run it" but more "omg there is nothing we can do about this !!" because if we go with the whole "everybody runs it so it's overpowered" as a criteria for restricting we must definitely  restrict Force of Will, Underground Sea and fetches because everybody runs those !

[Qube]

I'm not saying Drains aren't dominating... I'm just saying that there is nothing wrong with our current meta, but then again... I didn't have a problem with our previous meta either so it could just be me. If everybody hates seeing drains... STOP PLAYING THEM or find hate to deal with them. But you gotta look at the statistics, while Drain can be seen as an "engine" it's not the same as having Gush-Bond and the statistics show the second best counterspell in the game gets played a lot which is fine by me...

I couldn't say it better!

[Neonico]

The problem is not that that blue is the dominant color.  It will always be the dominant color in Vintage.   The problem is that Mana Drain decks are an absurd percentage of all top 8s.   They are almost 50% of every single top 8.   From a health of the format/diversity perspective that is simply unacceptable in the long term. 

I don't have a problem with there being a best "engine" in Vintage, but there are limits that most reasonable can agree on.   

Quoted for truth and emphasis.

Restricting Mana Drain would have a positive effect in my opinion, because the draw engines like Thirst, IntuAK, Meditate etc. become a lot slower. One could even make the case for an unrestriction of Fact if Mana Drain is restricted.

Looking at the statistical appearance of a restricted card is a good indicator if a card will get used or not (with Gush being the exception since it is an engine card). In that regard, Grim Monolith, Crop Rotation, Burning Wish, Enlightened Tutor and other stuff would be safe to unrestrict. Interestingly, Ponder (which a lot of people thought was too weak to restrict) still gets played as a singleton (not that much in Tez), and would probably get played in greater numbers if unrestricted. So that would mean that Ponder is more powerful than those cards. There are three logical consequences then:

1. Leave everything restricted
2. Unrestrict Grim Monolith, Crop Rotation etc. and leave Ponder
3. Unrestrict Monolith etc. and unrestrict Ponder

It'll be interesting to see if Wizards decide to do something. I personally prefer option 2, or even option 3.

For me, it's the most absurd thing to do.... Drain is dominant, yes, but the meta is actually rock paper scissor (drain, ritual, shop)
Remove drain of the equation, you'll get a metagame like this :
TPS with 4-5 anti artefact hate maindeck, vs shop... And nothing else

There are tons of deck that perform really well, such as every null rod decks, goblins, ichorid, MUC, i don't see any problem actually.
Smennen speak of his statistics, but with a wrong look at them in my opinion : If you analyse european statistics, drains are far from being that dominating, and top8 Such as Bazaar of Moxen events, with Gb stompy, ichorid, gobelins performing well in a Painter/Tezzeret metagame tend to prove that the solution is to let evolve the metagame by itself, and certainly not removing a Top tiers archetype.