TPS goldfishing

[Dnine]

I'd like to try something different here and try to do a playtest session walkthrough with active feedback.  What that means is I will post the current game state and what my line of play would be.  After a bit if there is significant feedback suggesting a better line of play I will make that one instead and proceed with the game.  The idea being to get peoples opinion on the options available while not giving them future knowledge.  Because the game isn't finished changes in decisions won't cause the game to become void.  My goal is to learn how other people would approach the hands and hopefully train myself to see different play lines I normally would have missed. 

So the setup, you will be piloting the below TPS decklist.  You know you are playing against Tez but don't know is exact deck list.  It is game one and you have won the role and are going first. 

you open:  Mox Sapphire Grim Tutor Vampiric Tutor Mox Jet Tendrils of Agony Time Walk and Rebuild

Going first I think this is keepable.   You have 2 tutors and access to both your colors.  I would keep and lead with both moxes and time walk.  The plan being to timewalk, untap vamp on my upkeep for ancestral and fire it off on my turn.  If my opponent forces, I still have grim tutor assuming I can find another black source.  the rebuild also cycles to help me dig. 

So now I ask you if this is the best play?  Would you keep this hand?  Lead with a different play?  when a consensus seams to be reached I will continue.  Below is the deck list:

2  Island
2 Swamp
1 Flooded Strand
4 Polluted Delta
1 Lotus Petal
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring
2 Underground Sea
1 Tolarian Academy
4 Dark Ritual
2 Cabal Ritual
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Imperial Seal
1 Grim Tutor
2 Duress
2 Thoughtseize
4 Force of Will
2 nights whisper
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Rebuild
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Necropotence
1 Mind's Desire
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Timetwister
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Tinker
1 Inkwell leviathen
1 Memory Jar
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Tendrils of Agony

[LennoxLewis86]

I'd keep and open with Jet + Sapph and EOT Vamp Tutor for Mana Crypt. Then play your Crypt. Rebuild your artifacts to your hand floating B. Play all the artifacts again so you can cast Grim Tutor for Ancestral Recall, Time Walk after that.

Try the Ancestral Recall in your Time Walk turn. I'm aware that this leaves you with only Ancestral and one topdeck. But your graveyard looks promising already and with 4 mana ( available) on board there are lots of topdecks to be made.

I think waiting for a topdeck to cast Grim Tutor is too risky. If Ancestral gets countered I'd rather have an extra Crypt in play than a Grim Tutor in hand with only two moxen.

Think of the cards you can cast with 4 mana and  available: Gifts, FoF, Will, Twister, Tinker...

[LennoxLewis86]

Even better. Start with Jet and upkeep Vamp for Mana Crypt. Then play Sapphire, Crypt, Rebuild, Mox, Mox, Crypt, Grim Tutor for Lotus, Lotus and then Tendrils..
That's storm 10 exactly =D

EDIT: That won't work, I'm short, I could EOT Vamp but then I'm one storm short.. It depends on the opening of the Tez player. If he opens with a fetch or a Confidant it would be a great plan..

[DubDub]

Even better. Start with Jet and upkeep Vamp for Mana Crypt. Then play Sapphire, Crypt, Rebuild, Mox, Mox, Crypt, Grim Tutor for Lotus, Lotus and then Tendrils..
That's storm 10 exactly =D

I think you're shy of the black needed for Grim there, aren't you?

[LennoxLewis86]

Yeah, I was editing it but you beat me to it :p

I was still thinking about my earlier play when the idea popped up. I think it's a bit risky and would suit my style of play (Grim Long player) more. I'm not really sure if a TPS player wants to risk everything for putting someone at 2 life. Also, the Tez player would likely start to worry a bit of the storm count is building up. He could possibly counter the Lotus and that would leave me with only Tendrils and a Time Walk.

[Dnine]

If I follow my original line of play, assuming my opponant is holding force in there opening hand and counters my ancestral, I am left with 26 possible cards that I could play and have an impact on the game including black mana sources to cast grim, cheap tutors, duresses, and cheap card draws.  Also force is the only play my opponant can make to stop my ancestral since he will not get a turn first.  The downside being if the card is a dark ritual effect then getting value out of the grim tutor would be difficult and even if it is a perminant source, I would stil have to pass the turn after tutoring. 

If I follow Lennox's line of play I'm giving my opponant one turn before I play any threats.  That's one turn to duress me , draw a force or dig for one before I try to fire off recall.  If I assume he counters my ancestral then I am left with 15 useful cards to top deck out.  That includes tutors, duresses, card draws and bombs I could play with BU2 mana, 8 of which I would have to pass the turn before casting since I used one blue to attempt ancestral.

The hand as no disruption and really 2 useless cards in tendrils and rebuild, I'm almost starting to think this hand is a mul.  The only reason I see keeping it is becuase I can fire off an ancestral before my opponant can get a turn. 

 

[Churro4]

I think this one has to be a mull.

You have some powerfull options, but TPS always does.  The problem I see with this hand is you have no protection and ToA is already in hand.  If you pass the turn you are open to duress halting your line of play with a fairly useless Crypt on top.  That would provide the Tezz player time to build board position and get drains on-line.  If your opponent doesnt have duress you are still colded by a force on your tutor, or worse yet the opponent could have the mised MisD for a tutored A.Call( I know we don't have full knowledge of the Tezz list, but I don't think I am going too far out on a limb assuming there is a MisD in the deck)

[Qube]

mull this hand. 2 dead cards AND a disadvantage tutor is not so great in my opinion.

[MaxxMatt]

IMHO, situation described doesn't leave us so many clever or unseen opportunities to build up a different victory line.
TPS can't go for the throat and consume all his resources to apply 16-18 damages to opponents and then topdeck ad libitum possible new threats

First of all, in a tournament, I'll probably mull to a better 6 cards starting hand but for theoretical reasoning I'll play in this way:

* Turn 1
Mox Sapphire
Mox Jet
Time Walk
Pass

* Turn 1.bis
Upkeep, Vamp for ARecall
Draw, Ancestral Recall
Mainphase, Ancestral Recall

* At now, different scenarios will open up.
If opponent will counter AR, you can rely on topdecking mana sources or spells since next turn in order to refill your hand
If opponent let you resolve AR, you are in a safer position: a land and a protection can be drawn, opening for a lucky Land-->Duress play or a next turn GrimTutor.

Opponent is on the draw, he can Duress you, he can force your ARecall. Into this process he is going to consume at least one land and 3 cards. The net result is both decks are going to stall the needed time to simply refill their own hand, explode and win. Among the possible options available, while the one described isnt' the "stronger" one, it is the most foresighting: it leaves you with cards in hand, possibly new cards if AR resolve, mana fonts on table and it will force opponent to consume at least one FoW and/or a Duress in order to stall you down.

Not that bad, after you decide to play a risky 7cards hand without mulliganing to a better 6. TPS can be explosive even with 5 or 6 cards  in hand, so I'm really confident on mulliganing into a better one.

 

[Dnine]

I think it's safe to say that this hand should be mul'd.  While my original line of play of timewalk-vamp-ancestral isn't bad, it really doesn't do much to help me win and the risk of getting countered really puts me in a big whole.  So shuffling up and drawing a new 6 I get:

Polluted Delta, Vampiric Tutor, Polluted Delta, Inkwell leviathen, Dark Ritual, Underground Sea

Crap, I don't need much help with this one as it clearly is crap.  I think I can do better with 5 so lets try one more time:

Force of Will, nights whisper, Cabal Ritual, Polluted Delta, Rebuild

I don't think I can do much better then that with 4.  Unfortunately I will need to get lucky and draw another land soon or I'm screwed.  Hopefully the force can buy me a turn or to.  This goes to show one of the downsides of posting my playtesting live as it happens as my first run-through seems to be doomed from the start.  Oh well, lets see what happens.

It's obvious I play my land and pass, no real option here so lets move on.

My opponent starts with ruby, delta, fetch a sea and cast demonic tutor which I let resolve.  I don't think the tutor is worth countering, I'm I wrong?

On my second turn I draw Island and give a quick thanks, at lest I can play something.  I fetch a sea and cast N. whisper.  He lets is resolve and I draw:
Memory Jar and Demonic Tutor.  I pass.

Opponents turn 2 he plays Seat of the Synod and passes.  He now has drain mana up.

On my turn 3 I draw Minds desire.  Not the best draw, but my give me an out verses his card advantage if I can string together the right spells.  My hand is force, c. rit, rebuild, memory jar, dt, and mind's desire.  I tap my 2 lands and cast DT.  My opponent responds by attempting to drain my DT.  I think it's safe to say I have to force back so I force pitching rebuild.  He forces my force and pitched Ancestral.  My dt is countered, but at least I made him pitch his ancestral.  I pass the turn.  Interesting question though is if I was able to resolve dt what do I get?  Lotus was my first thought as it would help me get to the mana I needed to cast desire although the desire would be pretty small.  Necro was also an option and probably would be the right call.

On my opponents turn 3 he draws and has 2 drain mana floating.  He plays mana crypt and taps it and the seat to play gifts with 1 colorless still floating. He gifts up lotus, mana vault , time vault, and V key.  I give him mana vault and v key.  He taps he sea and the ruby and casts will and wins.  He casts his artifacts and replays the delta to fetch another land and replay dt for tinker so he can't be killed by crypt. 

Unfortunately I don't see any line of play I could have made to win this game.  The only thing was maybe the mulligan, but I still feel it was the right play even though it went against my first instinct.  At lest I learned something from this in that just because you can see a line of play doesn't mean it should be taken.

I think I will try again and start a new post and a new game and see if I can't get a more interesting starting hand.  I am using excel and a randomizer program to simulate the shuffling and not progressing the game state until I post.  I don't know how it will turn out until I post so forgive me if the game turns out like the one above.     

[mmcgeach]

Hello, I really liked this thread, and I've been thinking about it all week.  Then this weekend I ran into an opening hand that I misplayed at the time, but I for which I feel there could have been much stronger plays.  I was using a pretty standard TPS build (like yours but with more duress effects instead of nightswhisper), and I drew these 8 cards on the draw:

tolarian academy
dark ritual
cabal ritual
time walk
gifts ungiven
duress
mana crypt
mana vault

My opponent is playing Tezzeret, and opened with Land, Mox, Nights Whisper on his first turn.

On my turn I played the academy, crypt, and vault, and threw both time walk and gifts; both resolve.  The question tho, is what to get with Gifts Ungiven? 

What I did was select Memory Jar, Demonic Tutor, Black Lotus and Mox Jet...  and of course, the problem with this grouping is that it lets my opponent just give me mana, leaving me without any real action in hand.  Furthermore it tells him that I need black mana.  I think if I had only included the Lotus and not the Jet, he wouldn't have realized that I had no black source, and I may have been able to trick him into giving me the lotus I needed (perhaps by replacing Mox Jet with Necropotence in the gifts selection).

But, this is certainly a hand that rewards skilled play...  As a newcomer to TPS, I ask, what is the best play?  Or, at least, a better play than the one I made?

[Stormanimagus]

Hello, I really liked this thread, and I've been thinking about it all week.  Then this weekend I ran into an opening hand that I misplayed at the time, but I for which I feel there could have been much stronger plays.  I was using a pretty standard TPS build (like yours but with more duress effects instead of nightswhisper), and I drew these 8 cards on the draw:

tolarian academy
dark ritual
cabal ritual
time walk
gifts ungiven
duress
mana crypt
mana vault

My opponent is playing Tezzeret, and opened with Land, Mox, Nights Whisper on his first turn.

On my turn I played the academy, crypt, and vault, and threw both time walk and gifts; both resolve.  The question tho, is what to get with Gifts Ungiven? 

What I did was select Memory Jar, Demonic Tutor, Black Lotus and Mox Jet...  and of course, the problem with this grouping is that it lets my opponent just give me mana, leaving me without any real action in hand.  Furthermore it tells him that I need black mana.  I think if I had only included the Lotus and not the Jet, he wouldn't have realized that I had no black source, and I may have been able to trick him into giving me the lotus I needed (perhaps by replacing Mox Jet with Necropotence in the gifts selection).

But, this is certainly a hand that rewards skilled play...  As a newcomer to TPS, I ask, what is the best play?  Or, at least, a better play than the one I made?

I think an objectively powerful stack from that spot is this:

Demonic Tutor
Tinker
Lotus
Ancestral Recall

That way, the worst you can get is Lotus + Ancestral and that still leaves you with many more cards in hand and a most likely lethal Yawg. Will from the top-deck at any point in the game. There could be arguably better choices than ancestral when you have academy and Mana Crypt in play (i.e Mind's Desire, or even Yawgmoth's Bargain) but Ancestral affords you the most possibilities and you could still draw into a Mind's Desire and ramp it up with Ancestral beforehand.

-peace,

Storm

[Marske]

I've been very reluctant to join this discussion but seeing as I find the above statement interesting enough to put down a comment I will for a brief period join in on the action. Now, lets take a look what I would have gifted:

tolarian academy
dark ritual
cabal ritual
time walk
gifts ungiven
duress
mana crypt
mana vault

My opponent is playing Tezzeret, and opened with Land, Mox, Nights Whisper on his first turn.

On my turn I played the academy, crypt, and vault, and threw both time walk and gifts; both resolve.  The question tho, is what to get with Gifts Ungiven?

What I did was select Memory Jar, Demonic Tutor, Black Lotus and Mox Jet...  and of course, the problem with this grouping is that it lets my opponent just give me mana, leaving me without any real action in hand.  Furthermore it tells him that I need black mana.  I think if I had only included the Lotus and not the Jet, he wouldn't have realized that I had no black source, and I may have been able to trick him into giving me the lotus I needed (perhaps by replacing Mox Jet with Necropotence in the gifts selection).

Grabbing Memory Jar, Demonic Tutor, Black Lotus and Mox Jet still doesn't get you anywhere with your current hand, as you can safely assume your opponent won't have a counter because otherwise he would have presumably stopped gifts from resolving. If you gift for:

Demonic Tutor, Grim Tutor, Ancestral Recall, Black Lotus

If they give you DT and Lotus you just win on the spot, if they give you lotus and Grim you win on the spot, if they give you Lotus, Ancestral  (who'd do that ?!) you can Untap play lotus, fire of Ancestral and have a high percent shot at hitting a tutor to win the game. Most likely they won't give you Ancestral + Lotus with a grip of 3 cards left (4 if you hadn't fired of TW) but because you did it's still probably not the best option to give you. Most likely You'll end up with Grim + Ancestral which lets you needing to hit: 4 delta, 3 Underground Sea, 2 basic swamp, 1 Lotus Petal, 1 Mox Jet  so hitting 11 out of 48 cards (7 cards starting hand, 4 cards from gifts, 1 draw step so your library contains 48 cards) within the next 4 cards you're going to see with Ancestral and your draw step will win you the game.

They'll likely not give you lotus in fear of you holding a tutor and just winning the game next turn (Seal, Mystical, Vamp all win at this point) and giving you DT is also not a great idea so the only choice they have is giving you Grim + Ancestral in hopes you don't hit a black mana source.

Edit:
@Storm,
That pile also crossed my mind although if they give you Lotus + Recall you're still not sure to win, you really want a tutor in your hand. Tinker how awesome as it may be will only grab you Jar at this point which doesn't have to be lethal next turn.

[mmcgeach]

Wow, thanks for the great feedback!

I hadn't considered gifting for multiple tutors; that seems really strong.

...can safely assume your opponent won't have a counter because otherwise he would have presumably stopped gifts from resolving.

So, actually I ended up playing Duress (on my time walk turn) and seeing my opponent with:

Mana drain,
Force of will,
Tezzeret,
Duress,
Land x 3

This is a crippling hand against me unless I win on my Time Walk turn with him tapped out.  (Maybe because his hand is so strong he chose not to Force the Gifts?)

I think an objectively powerful stack from that spot is this:

Demonic Tutor
Tinker
Lotus
Ancestral Recall

That way, the worst you can get is Lotus + Ancestral and that still leaves you with many more cards in hand and a most likely lethal Yawg. Will from the top-deck at any point in the game. There could be arguably better choices than ancestral when you have academy and Mana Crypt in play (i.e Mind's Desire, or even Yawgmoth's Bargain) but Ancestral affords you the most possibilities and you could still draw into a Mind's Desire and ramp it up with Ancestral beforehand.

I agree that Lotus + Ancestral seems the weakest possibility here.  I had, in re-thinking this position, decided that a Mind's Desire would be a pretty strong play.  If we did gifts for:

DT, Tinker, Lotus, Mind's Desire,

It seems like Lotus + Minds Desire leads to a MD of Storm 5 with 5 black 1 blue floating next turn, not considering the draw.  Lotus + Tinker leads to a Memory Jar with a lot floating, too.  Both those are risky, but plays I would have been much more happy with compared to what I actually did.

If you gift for:
Demonic Tutor, Grim Tutor, Ancestral Recall, Black Lotus

...Most likely they won't give you Ancestral + Lotus with a grip of 3 cards left (4 if you hadn't fired of TW) but because you did it's still probably not the best option to give you. ...They'll likely not give you lotus in fear of you holding a tutor and just winning the game next turn (Seal, Mystical, Vamp all win at this point)...

This sort of duplicitous Poker-Play is something I have not previously considered, either.  Clearly these types of calculations are key to becoming really skilled with TPS.

Knowing the Tezzeret player's hand, is it safe to assume he's not afraid of Ancestral Recall?  If I resolve it and pass the turn, he gets to duress my biggest threat with Drain AND Force up.  Drain into Tezz is a quick win for him.

[Stormanimagus]

@mmcgeach — I was a bit sloppy in looking at your opening hand, and now I believe that Marske is right upon reviewing your hand and game state.

Think of it this way. There are a couple relevant pieces of info to this game once you resolve Time Walk AND Gifts on your turn.

1. Does he have Force of Will?

I'd say this is highly HIGHLY unlikely as no intelligent player should let Gifts Ungiven Resolve unless he/she has a really good reason. Especially if that player has already let Time Walk resolve and is tapped out.

2. How can I find a black mana source to fully abuse the rituals in my hand, but also not get screwed with a bad Gifts Pile?

3. How can you construct a 100% or near 100% chance of winning on your Time-Walk turn?

Here's where I think I made a blunder. I was not paying full attention to the AMOUNT of rituals you had in hand to work with. Assuming a Gifts Pile that looks like Marius':

DT
Grim
Ancestral
Lotus

A good Tezz player here will probably give you Grim Tutor and Ancestral Recall. If he sees that you are player with Grim Tutor he will put you on TPS and then he'll know he needs to stall long enough to get drain/FoW online for your bomb. If that is the case you need to understand that you are not seeing that Black Lotus.

This means you have a card that you'll draw next turn and 3 more in which to find a black mana source. As Marius already stated that is an 11/48 shot (about 23%) of hitting the black source you need to "go off". This basically means you have a 23% chance of winning 4 TIMES on the following turn. That makes the overall probability close to 100% that you'll get what you need to win.

Let's take a look at my alternative:

DT
Tinker
Lotus
Ancestral

Here they are going to have a tougher choice. They can no longer put you on TPS so giving you Tinker may be a bad idea. They can't give you DT AND Lotus cause that might lead to a degenerate turn of Controllish plays like Tinker for Inkwell + Hardcast FoW mana up with Lotus in play. I see two possible piles that would work for them from their position.

DT + Ancestral
Ancestral + Lotus

They are farrrrr more likely to give you option number 2. If they do you must basically ask yourself what you're banking on to draw off Ancestral. What cards win you the game? Well few do by themselves, but let's examine.

1.DT
2.Yawg Will  
3.Grim Tutor
4.Timetwister (not an automatic win at all and may actually screw with your GY possibilities)
5.Mind's Desire (more probable that you'll win off this than Timetwister as you should be able to get Storm 6 on this puppy [Lotus, Ancestral, Rit, C. Rit, Duress] at absolute minimum)
6.Yawgmoth's Bargain (Iffy because you'll be using lotus to play it and you might be down 15 life by next turn from Crypt and Vault and a possible fetch)
7.Memory Jar (Weakest to Top-deck, but could win it for ya)

That's only 7 cards that you could draw to seal the deal, but some of them are not even sure things.

In any case 7/48 is worse than 11/48 so Marius' Stack wins out and is the proper stack I believe.

Peace,

-Storm

EDIT: You must also understand that there are situations where my stack would make more sense. Just not this one. When you have as many rituals as you did and mana-producing ability you are not looking to dig for anything and set up a good mid-late game. You are looking to win now before your opponent can get counter-magic online. If you have a sort of controllish hand with say FoW and other stuff than Tinker-->Inkwell would be a far more preferrable play as you'd be able to protect it until it does the job. Gifts is a very context dependent card, but usually you can play it correctly with a little common sense and experience.

[thecman]

This means you have a card that you'll draw next turn and 3 more in which to find a black mana source. As Marius already stated that is an 11/48 shot (about 23%) of hitting the black source you need to "go off". This basically means you have a 23% chance of winning 4 TIMES on the following turn. That makes the overall probability close to 100% that you'll get what you need to win.

Just for reference with a 23% shot at hitting a black source on any given card, the odds of not hitting a black source in 4 cards is 35% (0.77^4=0.35), so you really only have a 65% chance of drawing into the black source next turn.

[Marske]

@Storm,
Small note you mention DT as a card you could possibly draw in your 7 possibility's but you've already included it in the gifts pile so that one fails, which leaves you with a 6/48 instead of a 7/48 chance of winning. You kinda explained it better then me but I did go through that entire piece of logic in my head already. As I was kinda pressed for time I'm glad you took the task in explaining it a bit further

Actually, after reading the initial post a bit more:

My opponent is playing Tezzeret, and opened with Land, Mox, Nights Whisper on his first turn.

You have a 11/47 (2 draw steps) chance of hitting a black source

@Thecman,
65% chance of winning still seems very good imo. Plus you're ignoring the fact that 11/47 turns into 11/46 and 11/45 and 11/44 and 11/43 (so the percentage shifts) and your odds of actually drawing a black source after hitting 1-2 or 3 miss hits also increases.

[thecman]

@marske: I completely agree that 65% chance is still pretty good.  I just wanted to point out that its not nearly as close to 100% as was indicated in the earlier post.  Also, adjusting for the changing odds after each draw yields a 67% percent chance of hitting that black source in four cards.

[Bongo]

I don't think this:

Demonic Tutor, Grim Tutor, Ancestral Recall, Black Lotus

is optimal.
Your opponent will simply give you Demonic and Grim, which you can't use unless you immediately topdeck black mana in the Time Walk turn.

[Dnine]

New game to post with the same deck list as my first post.  It's still a game one and you know your opponent is playing tez.  You are on the draw this time and open up:

Imperial Seal, Timetwister, Force of Will, Swamp, Tolarian Academy, Cabal Ritual, and Lotus Petal

No question this time you keep this hand.  It has good mana, 1 action spell and 1 tutor plus some protection in force.

Tez opens with volcanic island and mana crypt and attempts to case merchant scroll,  It resolves and he fetches a force of will.  A logical play as he knows what you are playing.

He passes and you draw mana vault.  I definitely believe you are going to seal turn one.  The question is what do you get?  You have plenty of mana so you want one of your bombs.  You have to hold back twister to use to pitch to force since you know he is holding a force.  My gut says to go for necro.  The down side is if he has 2 counters, and you should assume he will have drain mana up turn 2 then you are out of threats since twister is the only other blue card.  You could wait another turn and drop mana vault on your turn 2, that way on your turn 3 you will have swamp, academy, petal, vault and C. ritual for 9 mana so you could necro and hard cast force.  Setting up a turn 4 win though with no disruption slowing tez down seems to slow though.

Another option is to seal for ancestral and hold it in case he taps out or until you draw a second blue card.  That way you can respond if they tap out for instant card draw, or bait with ancestral on their turn and if they counter you can untap on your turn and cast twister with enough mana floating to hopefully win.   

My first gut reaction was necro, but I think the ancestral play is the safer play.

[Gekoratel]

I agree with your reassessment that going for Necro isn't that good because in order to protect Necro you'd have to pitch your only other threat in the hand.  Recall is a fine option here since you can pick a fight on your opponents endstep let them stop the Recall and then hope to into Duress/Blue card to have Force backup on your Timetwister.  This line of play also lets you hit all of your land drops and build up your board with Mana Vault before going for the Draw 7 and therefore getting better odds of being able to win off the Twister.  One option I was considering to was Duress but it seems like too reactive of an option and would really suck if they hit you with a Duress of there own taking your only relevant spell.

[Marske]

@Bongo,

I don't think this:

Quote from: marske on August 10, 2009, 04:19:14 PM
Demonic Tutor, Grim Tutor, Ancestral Recall, Black Lotus

is optimal.
Your opponent will simply give you Demonic and Grim, which you can't use unless you immediately topdeck black mana in the Time Walk turn.

If you'd gift for this and don't play time walk you have 4 cards in hand. No player will give a storm player with that much mana on the table 2 tutors which give the goods in hand directly. Even if you HAD played time walk, The chances that you're simply holding a fetch land but chose to open with Academy and gifts + time walk which means you still have 3 cards in hand should indicate enough. The risk of you winning during your time walk turn is just to great if they give you DT and Grim. You're not looking at this correctly, your opponent can't know that you're looking for a Black source, for all they know you already have that but have chosen to open with artifacts + Academy and gifts (a strong opening indeed) the fact that you search for 2 tutors + Ancestral and mana should send the signal to your opponent that you're looking to seal the deal during your time walk turn. The best possible pile would be Ancestral + Grim for them because Grim costs 3 mana and 3 life and Ancestral good as it may be still doesn't win the game on the spot unless you hit something. You must look at this from your opponents point of view, playing gifts can be very tricky and this is a risky bluf indeed. But lets for the sake of argument say that they give you DT, Grim and you start your time walk turn. You still have a 8 out of 47 chance of hitting a black source and winning the game. Still not bad.

ps.
Sorry I reverted back to the previous question but I felt like the discussion wasn't over yet.

[Darkenslight]

New game to post with the same deck list as my first post.  It's still a game one and you know your opponent is playing tez.  You are on the draw this time and open up:

Imperial Seal, Timetwister, Force of Will, Swamp, Tolarian Academy, Cabal Ritual, and Lotus Petal

No question this time you keep this hand.  It has good mana, 1 action spell and 1 tutor plus some protection in force.

Tez opens with volcanic island and mana crypt and attempts to case merchant scroll,  It resolves and he fetches a force of will.  A logical play as he knows what you are playing.

He passes and you draw mana vault.  I definitely believe you are going to seal turn one.  The question is what do you get?  You have plenty of mana so you want one of your bombs.  You have to hold back twister to use to pitch to force since you know he is holding a force.  My gut says to go for necro.  The down side is if he has 2 counters, and you should assume he will have drain mana up turn 2 then you are out of threats since twister is the only other blue card.  You could wait another turn and drop mana vault on your turn 2, that way on your turn 3 you will have swamp, academy, petal, vault and C. ritual for 9 mana so you could necro and hard cast force.  Setting up a turn 4 win though with no disruption slowing tez down seems to slow though.

Another option is to seal for ancestral and hold it in case he taps out or until you draw a second blue card.  That way you can respond if they tap out for instant card draw, or bait with ancestral on their turn and if they counter you can untap on your turn and cast twister with enough mana floating to hopefully win.   

My first gut reaction was necro, but I think the ancestral play is the safer play.

It's not necro you need; more likely what you need is an artifact mana source that's NOT Lotus.  The logic behind this, is that you only have one artifact to turn Academy on, and that dies to make mana.  My suggestion would be to go for either Sapphire or Sol Ring.  that leaves you with as permanent mana:

Swamp, Academy (for 2-4), Vault; Sol/Sapph.  That's enough to cast Twister with Force hardcast backup and still have mana left over.  Admittedly, it's not much mana left over,

The only issue I see with this play is that if Twister gets countered, then you're boned gas-wise.

[Dnine]

It's not necro you need; more likely what you need is an artifact mana source that's NOT Lotus.  The logic behind this, is that you only have one artifact to turn Academy on, and that dies to make mana.  My suggestion would be to go for either Sapphire or Sol Ring.  that leaves you with as permanent mana:

Swamp, Academy (for 2-4), Vault; Sol/Sapph.  That's enough to cast Twister with Force hardcast backup and still have mana left over.  Admittedly, it's not much mana left over,

The only issue I see with this play is that if Twister gets countered, then you're boned gas-wise.

I fail to see the benifet of this line of play.  Your mana base is plenty stable as you don't need to sac the pedal and you still have the vault.  You are basically stating that you would rather have twister resolve then necro since both plays can be made with force backup and both plays leave you in top deck mode if they have 2 counters.  After necro you would have swamp, academy, pedal, vault(untapped) in play for 7 mana available on your turn 3.

In your line of play, it would have to be sapphire or jet so you can play it before having to tap academy.  You need to leave the swamp untapped for the ritual.  tapp swamp and jet for ritual, 4 in pool.  Use one for mana vault.  Tap academy for 3 and mana vault for 3.  9 mana in your pool.  Play twister for 3.  Hardcast force for 5 with one mana floating.  If countered you would have swamp, acadamy, pedal, vault(tapped) and a mox for 6 mana available.  Hardly worth it since necro is a much stronger card for the same risk.

[gamegeek2]

Hardly worth it since necro is a much stronger card for the same risk.

Necro is actually a safer engine, as it doesn't refill the opponent's hand after he deploys 1-2 lands and some moxen, and can be used multiple times. It's particularly strong against Tezz as life isn't much of a concern.

[LennoxLewis86]

I'm sorry to bring the other scenario back up but it crossed my mind while reading through the thread.

I was considering Gifting for this: Tinker, DT, Petal, Grim. The idea is to maybe Tinker for Lotus instead of adding it to the Gifts stack. You can easily ''waste'' 3 mana on Tinkering it into play because you'll be rewarded with a Threshed Cabal Ritual shortly after. Demonic/Grim is indeed very risky to give after seeing Time Walk and next to that, the worst you can get is Tinker + Petal which equals to Jarring the next turn with floating.

EDIT: Damn those mana symbols =p
 

[Stormanimagus]

I'm sorry to bring the other scenario back up but it crossed my mind while reading through the thread.

I was considering Gifting for this: Tinker, DT, Petal, Grim. The idea is to maybe Tinker for Lotus instead of adding it to the Gifts stack. You can easily ''waste'' 3 mana on Tinkering it into play because you'll be rewarded with a Threshed Cabal Ritual shortly after. Demonic/Grim is indeed very risky to give after seeing Time Walk and next to that, the worst you can get is Tinker + Petal which equals to Jarring the next turn with floating.

EDIT: Damn those mana symbols =p

I wouldn't be very scared to give Grim/Petal to my opponent is that was their gifts pile. Petal is, quite simply, an awful idea. Why would you deny yourself the extra 2 free mana from Lotus. You have to know what it is your opponent will give you and Grim/Petal seems most likely. If they give you this you are almost stuck with buttkiss. You might be able to still win the game on the power of your Cabal Ritual, but it's not a sure thing anymore because you don't have Black Lotus in the mix to make a lethal Yawg Win. So, in summary, don't make that Gifts Pile. Trust Me.

-Storm

[LennoxLewis86]

Ok, then I'll untap, flip a coin, take 1 damage from my Mana Vault. Play the Petal, tap the Academy for  , sac the Petal for , cast Dark Ritual, then cast Grim Tutor for Yawg's Will, then Cabal Ritual with Threshold and easily combo out after casting Will..

[Marske]

@LennoxLewis86,

The starting hand:
tolarian academy
dark ritual
cabal ritual
time walk
gifts ungiven
duress
mana crypt
mana vault

Casting Gifts and Time Walk has left you with this:

Board: Tolarian, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault (tapped)
Hand: Duress, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual (2 cards you gifted for)
Yard: Time Walk, Gifts

Lets say you gifted for your pile:
Tinker, DT, Petal, Grim

Arguably you get Petal + Grim here giving you: Duress, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual (2 cards you gifted for) According to you, this would leave the following play:

Ok, then I'll untap, flip a coin, take 1 damage from my Mana Vault. Play the Petal, tap the Academy for  , sac the Petal for , cast Dark Ritual, then cast Grim Tutor for Yawg's Will, then Cabal Ritual with Threshold and easily combo out after casting Will..

Now you Untap, take 1 damage from Vault. Draw a card (lets say a fetch land) you play petal (Storm 1) fetch a underground sea, tap Academy for UUU, Sac Petal for B, cast Dark Ritual (Storm 2) (UUUBBB floating) Grim tutor (storm 3 targeting Will) BUU floating, Cast Cabal Ritual (storm 4 in the yard: Time Walk, Gifts, Dark Rit, Petal so you no thresh even if you use the fetch) BBBU floating, play Will (Storm 5) B floating, Petal (storm 6) Dark Ritual, Storm 7, BBB floating, Cabal Ritual (storm 8) BBBB floating, Grim Tutor (Storm 9) for Tendrils ? (B floating) so you barely make it with Mana Crypt the land you fetched, mana floating.. If you grab: anything other then a Land, Ritual or Mox you won't make it.... now with Lotus thrown in the mix, it doesn't matter what you grab of the top you'll win regardless, Hence it's the better pile. Tinkering for lotus seems like a useless play imo, because you replace 3 mana with 3 mana... you have no problem hitting enough storm with your current hand, it's hitting more mana that's the potential problem.

[Stormanimagus]

Hey All. I'm curious to know how people play this deck out. I want to do a little Opening Hand strategy so I'm gonna post some real opening hands I've gotten and ask you 2 questions:

1.) Would you keep this hand?
2.) What would your opening turn play sequence be?

Now given this list:

The Perfect Storm

Land (12):
4 Polluted Delta
3 Underground Sea
2 Swamp
2 Island
1 Tolarian Academy

Artifacts (11):
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Memory Jar

Artifact Creatures (1):
1 Inkwell Leviathan

Instants (19):
4 Dark Ritual
2 Cabal Ritual
4 Force Of Will
1 Misdirection
1 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Chain Of Vapor
1 Rebuild
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Fact Or Fiction

Sorceries (15):
4 Duress
1 Grim Tutor
1 Imperial Seal
1 Mind’s Desire
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Ponder
1 Timetwister
1 Tinker
1 Time Walk
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Tendrils Of Agony

Enchantments (2):
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth’s Bargain

Let's start with "On The Play Game 1" hands:

On The Play Game 1 (These were actual hands):

1.   Sea, Delta, Duress, Ponder, Gifts, Lotus, Force

2.   Swamp, Island, Delta, Pearl, Sol Ring, Ponder, Time Walk

3.   Sea, Island, Duress, Desire, Demonic, Vault, Force

4.   Sea x2, Delta, Ancestral, Cabal Rit., Gifts, Desire

5.   Swamp, Dark Rit., Desire, Necro, Duress, Force, Fact

6.   Sea, Delta, Duress, Sol Ring, Brainstorm, Yawg. Will, Emerald

7.   Sea x2, Dark Rit., Demonic, Mana Vault, Chain, Mystical

8.   Island, Dark Rit, Vamp, Force, Misd., Yawg. Bargain, Sol Ring

9.   Sea, Ruby, Pearl, Crypt, Duress, Cabal Rit., Force

10.   Delta, Pearl, Sol Ring, Force x2, Fact, Cabal Rit.

11.   Island, Chain, Dark Rit., Cabal Rit., Yawg. Will, Seal, Force

12.   Force x2, Ancestral, Scroll, Rebuild, Chain, Dark Rit.

13.   Sea, Delta, Emerald, Sol Ring, Time Walk, Tinker, Force

14.   Swamp, Petal, Dark Rit., Duress, Force, Seal, Necro

15.   Swamp, Duress x2, Force, Chain, Brainstorm, Yawg. Bargain

16.   Sea, Academy, Island, Ponder, Time Walk, Misd., Inkwell

17.   Delta, Jet, Sol Ring, Dark Rit, Brainstorm, Desire, Force

18.   Sea, Island, Cabal Rit., Necro, Tendrils, Mystical, Force

19.   Sea, Swamp, Delta, Petal, Dark Rit., Mana Vault, Chain

20.   Delta x2, Pearl, Emerald, Scroll, Duress, Cabal Rit.


Now, I'll offer my Mulligan/Keep opinion right off the Bat.

Mulligan = #8, 9, 12, 15 (though it is borderline keepable), 19

That means that between 75 and 80% of the hands are keepable. But there's more to the story than that. What hands would call "God hands" or "High Percentage" Hands?

I'd say that #5, 7, 13, 14, 18 (though it isn't as broken as the others).

Now this isn't to say that there aren't some other powerful hands, but those scream out to me "I win"!

That's 20-25% of the hands that are almost a guaranteed victory. I want illustrate another point about THESE hands. What card(s) make these hands amazing?

5, 14, 18 = Necropotence
7 = Combination of Mystical and Demonic Tutor
13 = Tinker

I want people who ever think of knocking Necropotence to understand that it pushed a hand over the top 3/20 times. That's 15% of the hands.

Tinker is also brutally good in TPS

The Demonic/Mystical hand is good because of the whole package. You can snag an Ancestral for turn 2 and then go nuts with Ritual + Vault + Card Advantage.

All right, I'd like to hear other poeple's thoughts on these hands including:

1.) Which ones would you keep?
2.) How would you play out your first turn or 2 (if you know they have FoW how do you play? If not how?)
3.) Which hands are guaranteed wins in your eyes?

Thanks for reading,

-Storm