Article: Rule of Law: Maximizing Mishra's Workshop in Vintage

[voltron00x]

I think the problem with making a blanket statement like "Null Rod is amazing in Stax!" is that Null Rod's relevance is highly dependant on the metagame. 

Of course.  I was arguing for the inclusion of Null Rod based on my understanding of the current metagame, since Null Rod is good against Tezz, Oath, and Combo.   All of these seem fairly popular to me right now although Tezz is not as played as it once was.

Null Rod isn't good in the matchups you've mentioned, but I think this is an acceptable trade-off because every lock piece has strengths and weaknesses depending on the matchup (e.g. Stack and Wire suck against Dredge, Spheres and Wire are bad against Stax).

Gandalf - sorry, my statement wasn't really a response to your posts, more so to the article in general, which suggests that if you don't have Null Rod, you're doing it wrong.

[pierce]

Maybe we can get him to comment on this board to explain somethings.

Anyone here have connections to ChannelFireball?

I know a few of the writers, either personally or through online mtg think-tanks. How seriously does everyone want a reply? I don't know this particular writer, but I wouldn't mind asking the others to nudge him this way.

[LotusHead]

Maybe we can get him to comment on this board to explain somethings.

Anyone here have connections to ChannelFireball?

Of the people closest to ChannelFireball, Webster and Jeffthefob read/post here more than the others. (I'm sure LSV keeps up, but he rarely posts here).  ChannelFireball only has Vintage content every now and then.  As it happens, there is a Tourney at Superstars on Sunday, and I'll investigate as to how to get a response from the author

.

[Evenpence]

Of the people closest to ChannelFireball, Webster and Jeffthefob read/post here more than the others. (I'm sure LSV keeps up, but he rarely posts here).  ChannelFireball only has Vintage content every now and then.  As it happens, there is a Tourney at Superstars on Sunday, and I'll investigate as to how to get a response from the author

I think every single video I've seen where LSV is getting interviewed he mentions Vintage.  Like, not even kidding, _every_single_one_.

[matt_sperling]

I don't really read TMD, not becuase it isn't a great site, but just becuase I have limited time to read Magic content and the "message board/forum" format (not this one particularly, just all forums combined) has historically been low return-on-investment for me.  TMD forums do seem much more organized etc. than others, so I'll try to check in more from time to time.  Thanks for the commentary on my Stax article.  Today or tomorrow, I'll try and get some responses out to issues that have come up here.  Before I turn to those issues, here is what I just posted in the comments section of my article, responding to issues raised there (overlap with those here include dredge hate issues).  

Some general things about my article: if I state that Null Rod deserves a place in 5c Stax or something like that, the statement is contextual, the context being the current format (pre-Rise but post WWK, with rise presumably not changing that much, except perhaps pushing Oath even more).  I'll try to provide a more complete defense of Null Rod in the current format in the coming days.  I just wanted to note for now that I am not claiming in any way "absolutes" about Null Rod or Metalworker that can never change if the format changes.  I just think right now you're crazy to play a Metalworker and crazy NOT to play Null Rods, which I can explain.  

Here are my ChannelFireball Comments responding to feedback I got:

@Max,
Agreed the dredge hate package is a bit sloppy. That said, you can always bring in the ancient grudges to kill their chalice on the draw, and as for nature’s claim, if they have bazaar + green mana + nature’s claim I don’t see how having Leylines instead is going to save you. The solution might be something like 3 Tormod’s Crypt 4 Leyline as you suggested, meaning you’d have to cut the thorns of amethyst and the rack and ruin. I admittedly don’t try as hard on the sideboards before publishing an article as I do the maindeck becuase metagames are so different and decisions like the one you suggest are easy for the reader to arrive at on his own.

@ Mox Monkey over Null Rod:
I find the Monkey to be a better card “on paper” than in practice. Imagine the opponent needs to get a mana or two to cast an artifact destruction or bounce spell, or an Oath of Druids, or the opponent has Vault/Key assembled in hand. Monkey does nothing to stop the opponent’s artifact mana from powering out their spells (it turns their moxen into Lotus Petals, IF you can spare 1 mana per to kill them on your turn or eot). Monkey only stops Vault/Key if you have 3 mana up, and Workshop can’t help. Null Rod does so much against Artifact Mana and Vault/Key that you really want to have it, even though it shuts off some of your own mana.

@ Lotus Head
Ancient Stirrings is not a card I have considered yet. Its worth a try. It is an interesting middle ground between Crop Rotation and Imperial Seal (don’t lose card advantage, but still don’t get your Shop or Strip first turn if you had to play a land to cast the Stirrings). On balance, I suspect Imperial Seal (which I can’t find room for) is a more powerful spell.
Comment by Matt Sperling — April 28, 2010 @ 8:37 am
  

(FYI: LSV did reach out to me to get me to check this forum, so thank him if you were among those hoping I would look at this thread)

-Matt Sperling

Current Decks: Tezz and 5c Stax.

[TheShop]

I will say that utilizing Stirring as an ability to sort of filter out things you can't use due to rod/chalice it may increase 5colors ability to make these cards assymetrical.  Without a filtering engine...

[matt_sperling]

I'd be remiss if I didn't add one more thing about why I'm a newcomer to TMD:  the whole Adept thing baffles me.  At some point I tried to chime in on some thread and couldn't because I'm apparently a creature without any Level counters on it.  This was really offputting.  I just saw that there's an "Ask the Adepts" feature now.  I've narrowed the choices for my first question down to "what makes you think I would trust your answer?" and "how can I play vs you in high stakes ante matches of Vintage?"  If this comes off the wrong way, its just me echoing back the underlying current behind the Adepts vs. Unwashed-Masses approach to forum management. 

[pierce]

we can play high stakes vintage. or higher stakes poker, if you are into that.

either way, down to gamble!

[matt_sperling]

Sweet, let me know if you'll be at GP DC or PT San Juan.  If not we'll have to set something up at a Mox Tourney somewhere or something.  If you ever want to do a team challenge where 4 people have to show up with 4 different archetypes or something, and then you round robin to determine winning team, I'm down for that too.  Definitely down for individual vintage matches, with either one deck or multiple.

[matt_sperling]

In defense of only 2 Tangle Wire:

I'm responding to only half an argument here.  "He only plays 2 Tangle Wire, WTF!" is bad form when it comes to critiquing a deck.  Unless you suggest going above 60 cards, this needs to be a 0 sum game, if you suggest adding cards, you’re suggesting cutting other cards by implication, so you need to specify those cards.  (this also applies to people baffled by 4 moxen and no balance main)  With that in mind, I don’t see what you cut for Tangle Wires 3 and 4, though I agree it is a good card that I want access to.  There are very many cards I want 4 of, but don’t have room for. 

In defense of Null Rod:

Those of you worried about shutting off your own Moxen and potentially locking yourself are right to be somewhat concerned, but wrong to suggest that Null Rod shouldn’t be played.  This card is just so good right now.  The Oath deck and other Vault/Key decks are the best decks.  If you aren’t gunning for them, I hope you are content with “3-2, missed the cut to top 4 for power” and similar results.  As you make the top 4, gunning for the top decks is even more critical.  I don’t have a perfect recipe for beating Oath with Stax, since it isn’t the easiest task in the world, but I know that Null Rod helps.  Critically, Lodestone doesn’t increase the cost of artifact mana, so Null Rod goes a long way towards turning your “soft” locks “hard” (that sounds sexual, which is appropriate since if you ever turn 1 a lodestone and a null rod, prepare to be aroused).  Decks like ANT and Long will be trying to work around Lodestone and will have only a couple of turns to do so.  Turning off their artifact mana is much, much more important than preserving your own.

There is a comment above about the symmetrical effect of Null Rod and Chalice, and trying to avoid this symmetry.  Your best tools for making these cards asymmetrical are Welder and Playing Correctly.  The playing correctly just means Chalicing for the right number and not casting Null Rod where you really need your artifact mana or the opponent isn't much affected by the Rod. 

Welding my Null Rod into a Mox or Lotus is fairly common, in order to cast something really spicy like Tinker or because I have another Null Rod in hand or because they've sacked their artifacts to Smokestack or whatever. 

The next issue is not being able to Maindeck Trisk.  This is something I don’t enjoy, but I try to mitigate by including Duplicant.  Duplicant happens to be really good vs Tinkered robots (Inkwell, my tinker target of choice, notwithstanding) and kills a bob or goyf quite nicely, even if it can’t go 187 on a hierarch, a selkie, and a mindcensor on turn 3. 

As should be obvious, I’m not concerned about the opportunity cost of not playing Metalworkers and SoFIs.  I think the article sets forth the metalworker argument in pretty good detail.  If someone does have specific counter-arguments I’ll be happy to address them.  The one I see so far is that ‘worker allows you to “play more threats in a turn than [control mage] has counters for.”  The opposite effect tends to occur in practice.  Threat density is so low in a worker deck that a FoW here and a Drain there gets the opponent out of dodge in most circumstances.  Plus, if they’ve got a ton of counters but just don’t have time to cast them all (the premise of your argument), a sphere is better than a Metalworker, AND they can just counter the worker and keep up that way. 

One argument in favor of Metalworker is the popularity of Spell Pierce.  No one seems to be making this argument, but I may have missed it.  In any event, this is a positive of Metalworker, but it doesn’t outweigh the negatives that I’ve detailed in the article and above.  The Worker deck ends up trying to beat down with a 1/2 while the opponent recovers from a soft lock.   That’s my experience, even vs. spell pierce.

[matt_sperling]

Additional point re Null Rod:

This card is critical in making Stax a deck that can win on the Draw.  Winning the die roll shouldn't be a necessary step toward winning the match.  Chalice for 0 is awesome on the play, and a recipe for being too far behind on the draw.  Having 3-4 Null Rod means the opponent can start Mox Mox Land Ponder with DT (or vamp or mystical ready to fire) and you still have a chance.  Good luck with "Metalworker Go" or even just a sphere of resistance.  In sum, play/draw flexibility is a big selling point that I almost forgot to mention.

[Cyberpunker]

Thanks for explaining why you would choose Null Rod over Metalworker. You lose metalworker acceleration and a combo kill of your own. But you get Null Rod.

Are you still planning on dodging Dredge instead of trying to cut cards for hate?

[TheShop]

My personal opinion on the Adept issue:
the only reason I went through the process is so that I always have the option of participating in discussion, I do not feel that beig accepted made me a better player/theorist etc. Also notable: there have been very few posts in the advanced forum recently.  The bulk of all discussion takes place in the regular forum with all members having the ability to respond.  I do t even think that the majority of the adepts would consider their answers definitive(I can only speak for myself).

On 2 mana lock components:
I went back and forth for some time on the issue of Rods.  I argued both for rod and against at different points.  I still like the idea of having a single rod as a target and I like the fact that your list is exploring the posssibilities of different locks.  But we are not swimming the sea of Tezz we once were, and even then Rodless 5color stax had favorable matchups against Tezz without creatin cards that are dead to Oath, Fish...

I believe Tangle Wire #s 3-4 and a full complement of smokestacks are a necessity now just like they were when the last 6 years of Stax players performed well while running them.  There has always been a crowd that wants to cut the core of the deck, but history has not been favorable to them.  The printing of Lodestone Golem does not change this for me.

[matt_sperling]

It obviously depends on the metagame I expect, which isn't much of an answer.  Assuming a room full of decks I know nothing about ahead of time, my first instinct is to play like 3 Crypt and 2 Relic, and plan to board in Ancient Grudge on the draw to kill their needle or chalice for 0.  This violates the general rule I like of either making sure you can beat dredge or hoping to dodge, so I guess I would go to 0 and hope to dodge, that's my honest answer.  

If you expect dredge to be a likely early round pairing (I say early round because Dredge sucks and is unlikely to be your opponent in the later rounds of a tournament), by all means play 4 Leyline 3 Crypt.

[matt_sperling]

On 2 mana lock components:
I went back and forth for some time on the issue of Rods.  I argued both for rod and against at different points.  I still like the idea of having a single rod as a target and I like the fact that your list is exploring the posssibilities of different locks.  But we are not swimming the sea of Tezz we once were, and even then Rodless 5color stax had favorable matchups against Tezz without creatin cards that are dead to Oath, Fish...

I believe Tangle Wire #s 3-4 and a full complement of smokestacks are a necessity now just like they were when the last 6 years of Stax players performed well while running them.  There has always been a crowd that wants to cut the core of the deck, but history has not been favorable to them.  The printing of Lodestone Golem does not change this for me.

Fair enough.  Just so that I can avoid guesswork determining what you would cut for the extra wires and stacks, do you have a link where I can see you current build of 5cStax?

[Delha]

I'd be remiss if I didn't add one more thing about why I'm a newcomer to TMD:  the whole Adept thing baffles me...
...I just saw that there's an "Ask the Adepts" feature now.  I've narrowed the choices for my first question down to "what makes you think I would trust your answer?"

I strongly believe that these boards are more productive due to the fact that they are -as you put- "well organized/etc". On WoW, the forums of the Elitist Jerks guild grew into the single best think tank for discussion on game mechanics, and I do not consider it coincidence that they are even more tightly managed than TMD.

The point of having Adepts seems simple enough. It allows for content where you can know that none of the posters are random scrubs who added a Lotus and Moxen to Jund, then declared themselves a Vintage player or this guy. Having an Adept tag doesn't mean that you are King God on High. I never really notice if someone has it or not. It just says to me that you've played enough to know what end of the FoW is sharp and are capable of capitalization/punctuation.

That said, the bulk of the discussion still tends to take place on the open forums, where anyone can take part. I'm a long time lurker, and only recently started posting with any regularity. I haven't felt particularly constrained by my status yet.

[matt_sperling]

The point of having Adepts seems simple enough. It allows for content where you can know that none of the posters are random scrubs who added a Lotus and Moxen to Jund, then declared themselves a Vintage player or this guy. Having an Adept tag doesn't mean that you are King God on High. I never really notice if someone has it or not. It just says to me that you've played enough to know what end of the FoW is sharp and are capable of capitalization/punctuation.

That said, the bulk of the discussion still tends to take place on the open forums, where anyone can take part. I'm a long time lurker, and only recently started posting with any regularity. I haven't felt particularly constrained by my status yet.

Thanks for the explanation, and I'm glad things mostly take place in open waters.  I don't want to turn the thread off Stax and onto the Adept issue, so hopefully we can leave it at this. 

[Delha]

If you expect dredge to be a likely early round pairing (I say early round because Dredge sucks and is unlikely to be your opponent in the later rounds of a tournament), by all means play 4 Leyline 3 Crypt.

This article is inclined to disagree with your viewpoint.

If you said that Dredge was currently on the downturn (and that the risk of being paired against it was declining), I wouldn't argue. That doesn't appear to be your stance though. Unless I'm mistaken, you've labeled Dredge as a deck that is rarely able to reach the single elim rounds. This clearly wasn't the case in the article's data set, where it outperformed everything but Fish and Tezz.

[matt_sperling]

If you expect dredge to be a likely early round pairing (I say early round because Dredge sucks and is unlikely to be your opponent in the later rounds of a tournament), by all means play 4 Leyline 3 Crypt.

This article is inclined to disagree with your viewpoint.

If you said that Dredge was currently on the downturn (and that the risk of being paired against it was declining), I wouldn't argue. That doesn't appear to be your stance though. Unless I'm mistaken, you've labeled Dredge as a deck that is rarely able to reach the single elim rounds. This clearly wasn't the case in the article's data set, where it outperformed everything but Fish and Tezz.

Good point.  Given those numbers, dredge hate is probably warranted if you don't know anything else about the field ex ante.  I think Dredge is a pretty poor deck, but people do play it and have some success apparently. 

[pierce]

dredge is not terrible by any means. it's been winning a lot recently. by not playing sb cards for it you pretty much ensure that you won't win a tournament.

the logic you use to justify not using dredge hate cards in your sb would work better for a ptq or PT. but most vintage events are less than 30 players, and dodging dredge gets hard as the tournament progresses. since these events are usually winner takes all (a mox) then you need to adjust your sb to beat all the decks out there.

I've focused on graduating this semester, so no GPs for me. Also, couldn't ptq to get back on the tour due to more of the same, so no san juan. I plan on playing regionals, and have t8'd twice in the past three attempts so perhaps nationals will work. GP columbus should also work, since I'll be in the area anyway. With any luck, this won't just be a one time thing.

Individual matches are fine. If able to construct a worthy squad of 4 ringers, then team matches could also be negotiated.

[matt_sperling]

dredge is not terrible by any means. it's been winning a lot recently. by not playing sb cards for it you pretty much ensure that you won't win a tournament.

the logic you use to justify not using dredge hate cards in your sb would work better for a ptq or PT. but most vintage events are less than 30 players, and dodging dredge gets hard as the tournament progresses. since these events are usually winner takes all (a mox) then you need to adjust your sb to beat all the decks out there.

You don't need to beat all the decks out there.  You just need to make the top 8 and then beat 3 decks in the top 8.  You're right that in a small field it becomes more important to prepare for that small metagame, but it still isn't guranteed you'll have to face one of the two guys playing dredge, or that if you do you still cant make top 4 with one loss and win the tournament. 

It isn't unreasonable to predict no dredge decks will make top 8 at this year's Vintage Championships.  Looking at the numbers, perhaps this prediction is not well founded, but it isn't flat out unreasonable.  If you did make this prediction, playing 7 dredge hate is foolish.  Another way of looking at it is to assume Dredge is 8% of the field (or whatever number you think) and try to figure out the chances of getting paired against it in a 6-8 round swiss.  If odds are you'll play against it less than once per tournament, 7 dedicated sideboard slots is an awful lot (keep in mind, dredge matchups dont go to 100% even whn you bring in 7 cards). 

[forcethewill]

You don't need to beat all the decks out there.  You just need to make the top 8 and then beat 3 decks in the top 8.  You're right that in a small field it becomes more important to prepare for that small metagame, but it still isn't guranteed you'll have to face one of the two guys playing dredge, or that if you do you still cant make top 4 with one loss and win the tournament. 

idk about you but it seems whenever i top 8 there is at least 2 dredge deck in there.  I like to win and when my opponent begins his mulligan antics where he powders and mulls i dont like it one bit. 

[LotusHead]

Fair enough.  Just so that I can avoid guesswork determining what you would cut for the extra wires and stacks, do you have a link where I can see you current build of 5cStax?

Here is my version of your deck.  I found room for 3 Ancient Stirrings and 3rd Tangle Wire.  My sideboard was a "think outside the box" experiment, so ignore it completely.



// Lands
    1  Bazaar of Baghdad
    4  City of Brass
    4  Gemstone Mine
    4  Mishra's Workshop
    1  Strip Mine
    1  Tolarian Academy
    3  Wasteland

// Creatures
    1  Duplicant
    3  Goblin Welder
    4  Lodestone Golem
    1  Sundering Titan

// Spells
    1  Ancestral Recall
    3  Ancient Stirrings
    3  Chalice of the Void
    3  Crucible of Worlds
    1  Demonic Tutor
    1  Mana Crypt
    1  Sol Ring
    1  Mana Vault
    1  Black Lotus
    1  Mox Emerald
    1  Mox Jet
    1  Mox Ruby
    1  Mox Sapphire
    3  Null Rod
    3  Smokestack
    3  Sphere of Resistance
    3  Tangle Wire
    1  Tinker
    1  Trinisphere

// Sideboard
SB: 2  Duplicant
SB: 3  Aven Mindcensor
SB: 1  Balance
SB: 2  Braids, Cabal Minion
SB: 2  Powder Keg
SB: 1  Triskelion
SB: 2  Glowrider
SB: 2  Devout Witness

[meadbert]

You need more Dredge hate.  Think of it this way.  There is the probability that you will need the hate.
Then there is the usefulness of the hate.

As far as probability goes, Dredge is higher than basically everything except Tez and maybe Oath.  Dredge is more common that Shops and more common than Null Rods and more common than Dark Rituals.

The second question is how useful is that hate.  The comparative advantage of Leyline or Needle over Tangle Wire or Sphere of Resistance is huge.
The comparative advantage of those same cards versus whatever Stax brings in for Tez is much less.  Sure Choke could be good, but it is THAT much better than what you are taking out?  The answer is no.

From that perspective it it makes sense to pack a board with anti Dredge cards.
At some point there is a law of diminishing returns where the first and to a lesser extent the second piece of hate you see each game is huge, but a third is usually redundant.

Given a terrible game 1 win % against a certain archetype and an inability to adjust your deck to beat it post board it is reasonable to give up on some matchups, but writing off the second or third most common archetype in the format is rarely a good idea.

Rich M. once top-8ed with a Landstil deck that scooped to Dredge, but Dredge was not as heavily played back then.  At this point I would say if you cannot beat Dredge post board, then you should probably pick a different deck if you are just trying to win.

[Smmenen]

As far as probability goes, Dredge is higher than basically everything except Tez and maybe Oath.  Dredge is more common that Shops and more common than Null Rods and more common than Dark Rituals.

Dredge is more common than Null Rods?   Where is your data for that?   

[TheShop]

I am still ona phone and haven't gotten to type out a list yet, but what is the sudden fascination with 3 Wasteland, 4 Gemstone???

Kron ran 16 colored spells and ran the 8 rainbow lands
Chang ran 12ish colored spells off 7
Vroman ran 4 red spells on 7 red sources and later 12 colored spells off 7 lands in his color(granted he had additional bazaar)

The point-more than one world champ has run more colored spell off less colored land.  Why do we need to drop a wasteland at all?  Why drop it for colored instead of utility?

[matt_sperling]

I am still ona phone and haven't gotten to type out a list yet, but what is the sudden fascination with 3 Wasteland, 4 Gemstone???

Kron ran 16 colored spells and ran the 8 rainbow lands
Chang ran 12ish colored spells off 7
Vroman ran 4 red spells on 7 red sources and later 12 colored spells off 7 lands in his color(granted he had additional bazaar)

The point-more than one world champ has run more colored spell off less colored land.  Why do we need to drop a wasteland at all?  Why drop it for colored instead of utility?

My article proposes -1 Gemstone +1 Bazaar.  Other substitutions for the Gemstone are reasonable too.  Playing several games with 7 and several games with 8 5C-lands, 7 feels like not quite enough and 8 a little too much, but neither feels flat out wrong.  If we do move to 2 Bazaar, we can't move to 3 Welder as LotusHead proposes. 

@LotusHead
How have the Stirrings been?  Cutting a Chalice and a Welder is counterintuitive to me, so I'm curious as to what you think of the deck in this form. 

[voltron00x]

As far as probability goes, Dredge is higher than basically everything except Tez and maybe Oath.  Dredge is more common that Shops and more common than Null Rods and more common than Dark Rituals.

Dredge is more common than Null Rods?   Where is your data for that?   

This was true for the Mid-Atlantic from last Sept until February, but the surge of Noble Fish has probably changed that.

[voltron00x]

Additional point re Null Rod:

This card is critical in making Stax a deck that can win on the Draw.  Winning the die roll shouldn't be a necessary step toward winning the match.  Chalice for 0 is awesome on the play, and a recipe for being too far behind on the draw.  Having 3-4 Null Rod means the opponent can start Mox Mox Land Ponder with DT (or vamp or mystical ready to fire) and you still have a chance.  Good luck with "Metalworker Go" or even just a sphere of resistance.  In sum, play/draw flexibility is a big selling point that I almost forgot to mention.

I find it strange that you make this statement, yet you run only 2 Tangle Wire.

Historically players have used cards like Powder Keg, Karn, and Shaman to do exactly what you suggest one can do with Null Rod - except those cards sweep artifact mana away permanently.  Null Rod has the problem of just sitting there until the opponent can remove it from play at EOT, untap, and win. 

Still, in some metas, Null Rod is pretty exceptional.  I just don't think this is the meta for it, as Time Vault decks are probably at their lowest meta penetration of the last year plus.  At least, that's my meta - it's full of Shops, Dredge, and Fish, with different versions of Tendrils decks picking up steam, making Rod relatively weak.

[voltron00x]

Sweet, let me know if you'll be at GP DC or PT San Juan.  If not we'll have to set something up at a Mox Tourney somewhere or something.  If you ever want to do a team challenge where 4 people have to show up with 4 different archetypes or something, and then you round robin to determine winning team, I'm down for that too.  Definitely down for individual vintage matches, with either one deck or multiple.

I'll be at GP DC, and might be interested in any of the challenges you describe.