[Premium Article] Pat Chapin Discusses Vintage, The Deck, and Proxies

[Troy_Costisick]

Here's the link:

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/17886_Innovations_The_Deck_2009_Bringing_Back_the_Glory_Days_of_Vintage.html

Pat doesn't write on Vintage much anymore, so when he does, it's a big deal IMO.

Peace,

-Troy

[Marske]

The article was very interesting indeed, I always like what Chapin has to say. His deck is really interesting as well. Too bad he didn't perform a bit better although going 5-2 in a format you hardly play with a very hard to pilot deck is testament enough to his play skill.

[Neonico]

Very interesting artiucle, i agree.
But i can't agree with the no proxy as the vintage future.

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Also one point : the fact that some TO allow proxies should'nt be a problem to have also non proxy tournaments. Here in france, we have both, without any problem.

[Stormanimagus]

Very interesting artiucle, i agree.
But i can't agree with the no proxy as the vintage future.

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Also one point : the fact that some TO allow proxies should'nt be a problem to have also non proxy tournaments. Here in france, we have both, without any problem.

Yeah, I'm forced to agree. And it's not JUST because I own no power. I'd hate to see a Vintage metagame that consisted of:

a) a couple guys with 'real' decks
b) a larger number of guys with sub-optimal 'real' decks because they don't own a couple key pieces of power (ancestral, lotus) but still want to play Tezz or TPS or something broken.
c) a ton of budget fish decks all vying for the top stop at beating the 'real' decks but getting beaten by them in the end.
d) Goblins WTF? decks

I mean, I know that the format would adjust eventually, but why do that when you could have a format where you can't predict who'll bring the busted deck and who'll bring the jank?

Budget decks like GWb beats really only have power BECAUSE of proxies. If we lose proxies then less people CAN play the 'Restricted.deck' types of decks and Fish decks become much less good. I think Patrick fails to see that the supply just isn't there for Vintage the way it is in Standard. And these staples NEVER EVER EVER rotate out so the investment players must make is in just those 9-16 cards. This means a LOT of people trying to get their hands on the SAME cards. Forever. In standard, you can kinda go rogue or you can invest in a good budget deck or you can just wait til a rotation and try at it again. The cost of Standard may be more over 10 years of consistent play than Vintage, but you can stop playing Vintage for a year and come back to it without really losing your effective card-base. This makes Vintage inherently more casual, but I like that about it. It CAN be exciting and competitive like Standard, but it is also a familiar, casual format that you can come back to time and time again. Proxies simply make it more accessible to more players. Why wouldn't you want that?

-Storm

[Smmenen]

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Yeah, because 18,000 printed copies of Black Lotus is not nearly enough to support a couple of hundred Vintage players.   

Oh wait...

[zeus-online]

Well....I wouldn't mind either to be honest. Might see people honestly try to make new vintage decks with little to no power cards.

Things have changed since proxies where first allowed...The budget decks have far better cards to work with these days, while the "power" decks have gotten little from the new sets.

[DonEnzone]

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Yeah, because 18,000 printed copies of Black Lotus is not nearly enough to support a couple of hundred Vintage players.   

Oh wait...

Yeah, because only Vintage players want to have Black Lotus.

Oh wait...

How many Black Lotus do you think are in the hands of collectors/casual players/destroyed/lost/sitting in a shoe box. If they were so easy to get, they would not be so expensive. It is obvious that more then just Vintage players are buying the card.

[Neonico]

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Yeah, because 18,000 printed copies of Black Lotus is not nearly enough to support a couple of hundred Vintage players.  

Oh wait...

There are at least THOUSANDS (i mean at least 2000, dunno exactly) of vintage players, like all around the world, not only US should be considered.
Just look how many players are here on TMD.

And alot of power has been destroyed, lost, ETC.... Not to mention people who collectthem without even playing....

Yes, print run start to be a problem. And i'm sorry to say this with the respect i have for you and Pat chapin, but not admiting this is a real mistake imho... What you want ? Just to stay in the actual players circle ? Or having some new, young players to discover the format ? The fact is that a vintage player is often a lifetime vintage player (i know alot of players in my aera that stopped to play tournaments, but still have their power and their pet decks).. So new players can't find power, so they don't play vintage without proxies, and the format dies.

Because that's the heart of the problem : to be healthy, and keep on living, the format need some new players. And price cards and print run stop them from coming to play vintage.

[Prospero]

I avoided this debate the first time, but I feel like Pat's article warrants a response.

1.  I've been in and out of Magic a few times, and I've been in and out of Vintage more than that.  Every time that I've been actively playing Vintage I've worked to get power and all the other cards that you need to play.  I've worked to have a collection where I could play any deck in the environment that I wanted to play - because I hate proxies and love playing the game.

2.  Still, I don't know how emotionally invested most people are.  If you're going to play one of the most competitive decks in the environment, you're going to be playing several grand in power, let alone all the accessories to that - Drains, Shops, Grim Tutors, Imperial Seal and Bazaar's are roughly at, or over, $100 per.  Stax wasn't originally called "the $4,000 solution" without reason.  How many people would we lose with a switch, albeit gradual or otherwise?  If all tournaments were 10 proxy tournaments I don't think we'd lose all that many people.  But if we went down to 7, or 0 as he eventually suggests, I think that we would lose an inordinate amount of the community.  

And as a T/O, I'd be scared blind of running an event without proxies.  I don't think I could guarantee a prize - at which point you lose the people who would have driven to your event, but don't because they don't really know what they're going to be playing for.  Half the guys on my team have the cards that they need to run what they would usually play.  The other half don't.  I don't know that the other half would keep playing if they had to spend thousands to keep playing the decks that they play now.

3.  I don't believe that anyone keeps numbers on stuff like this - but how many decks in top 8's of major events are proxy-less?  I know that when Nick Coss offered a prize to the highest finishing deck sans proxies that there were three in the top 8.  Paul was still looking for an Imperial Seal at the time, but he seemed to be getting what he needed for his deck.

4.  I should add that I have never had a problem getting what I wanted because dealers at major events always had some, if not all of it.  The rest of what I needed I usually bought online.  I bought my Mox Pearl on Ebay.  If you buy from reputable sellers I don't think fakes are an issue.  

Yes, buying power and all that is expensive.  It's a commitment.  If you love the format so much why should you have a problem committing to it?  When I've picked up power from dealers I've softened the blow by getting rid of a slew of standard cards at the time I did it.  I walked into one of the first Grand Prix New Jersey's with several hundred dollars in Exalted Angels, Polluted Delta's and Flooded Strands.  I walked out with a Beta Pearl and a Beta Emerald.

5.  I'm willing to offer a prize for the highest finishing deck without a proxy at the event I'm running on 8/29.  I'd be willing to cut the proxy number down from 15 to 10 at future events.  If I was going to do anything more than that, I'd need to know that everybody in the area was doing the same, if only because you could essentially ignore my tournaments, and their proxy limit by just playing somewhere else where you could run as many as you want.

In conclusion:

I would love to play in sanctioned Vintage tournaments.  This is a huge commitment on the part of all tournament organizers though.  And we would certainly lose a quantifiable percentage of the community as soon as we switched to non-proxy events.  I'd think somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%.  Eventually we could become like Europe - tremendous sanctioned Vintage tournaments like the Bazaar of Moxen would be incredible in the States - as long as the move didn't completely decimate the community, making such tournaments impossible due to cost incurred by the T/O and his inability to recoup it since not enough people play/would go to his event.

As you can see, I'm conflicted.  I'd support a gradual move if the other tournament organizers jumped in this ship with me.

[Smmenen]

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Yeah, because 18,000 printed copies of Black Lotus is not nearly enough to support a couple of hundred Vintage players.   

Oh wait...

Yeah, because only Vintage players want to have Black Lotus.

Oh wait...

How many Black Lotus do you think are in the hands of collectors/casual players/destroyed/lost/sitting in a shoe box. If they were so easy to get, they would not be so expensive. It is obvious that more then just Vintage players are buying the card.

How many $500 bills printed in 1993 are destroyed/lost/sitting in a shoe box since, I dunno, 1997? 

[2nd_lawl]

I think this article hints at a couple of cool ideas:

1) Make Vintage worlds a PTQ.  Why not? It will boost participation and make the tournament much more worthwhile to enter: lets be honest the prize support for vintage worlds is pretty terrible compared to most of the other large US tournaments. Its 24$ entry in Addition to having to pay to enter gencon for the day is alot considering the turnout and the weak prize support.  I realize that there are significant bragging rights on the line, but magic players would be more willing to go if the EV wasn't so terrible.

2) I think there really is a sweet spot for proxies.  Going Deck by Deck, you can calculate how many proxies make each archtype able to be made on the type of budget that is normal for decks in non-eternal formats (around 200$)

Dredge: 4
G/W beats: 4
BUG Fish: 6-8
Shop Aggro/Red or RB Stax: 10
5cStax: 11
TPS/Tez: 15

As you can see this means that chapin's suggested 7 falls right in the middle of this list.  7 Encourages players to invest in cards that are vintage staples but not necessarily part of the power 9.  I feel like a playset of drains, or workshops, or even a set Forces will keep players in the format as well or nearly as well having full power.  A proxy limit of 7(or near 7) encourages players to invest a bit to access some of the decks in the format, but not so much that they have an upfront cost in the thousands of dollars, and requires very little investment to play the rest of the decks(which arent necessarily sub par choices if tuned correctly). the current system of 15 proxies basically means that the cost of playing all decks is basically flat, and has the side effects of players doing things like proxying uncommons and type 2 rares that are 8 dollars(I'm as guilty of this as anyone) which harms dealers.  Worst of all it means that players have little to nothing invested in the format.


edit: after thinking about it more, I think 8 is a better # than 7 for the simple reason that It lets you play Tez without spending more than 100$ on any individual card.

[Doomsday]

I hardly think of my investment in Vintage as "little-to-nothing" even without owning any power.  Reducing the number of proxies to 7 or 0 would be disastrous for the players like me.

[Smmenen]

I think there are several assumptions that always arise in this argument that are, at best, questionable, and at worst, wrong:

1) Vintage needs new players to survive.   

2) Vintage Must Eventually Die Due to the Supply of Power (the inevitable decline argument).

3) Power is Continually Destroyed and Much of It Has Already Been Lost/Destroyed

4) The Price of Power Will Continue to Go Up (Implicit in this: The Price of Power Doesn't Track Interest in Vintage)

5) Vintage Needs a Huge Tournament Scene to be Successful/Sustainable

Let me unpack each in turn. 
================
1) Vintage needs new players to survive.   

While not outright wrong per se (at least, in the Long, Long run), the tenor of this point is that Vintage should concentrate on accumulating new players.   I disagree.

The first goal of Vintage should be to find ways to retain existing players.  I've discussed this point at length elsewhere, but it's simple math and stock and flows issue.    Vintage has many barriers to entry and the flow of players into Vintage is very small.   Holding onto existing players should be much easier than trying to target new ones.   An existing player, if you keep them in Vintage for several decades, should take less work the getting new players and you will get far more out of them. 

2) Vintage Must Eventually Die Due to the Supply of Power (the inevitable decline argument).

This is an extremely common, and completely unfounded argument. There were 18,000 copies of each power printed.    There are probably no more than 2000 active Vintage players in the world, and half that many in the US.    That's six times as much power printed as Vintage players.   I recognize that there are other sources of demand for Power, and that power is priced, on account of its limited supply, beyond the reach of most people.

But those facts don't entail the death of Vintage without some other assumption as well.

3) Power is Continually Destroyed and Much of It Has Already Been Lost/Destroyed

This point is greatly overstated. 

First of all, even if power is continually lost over time, the rate of loss, I would argue, is approximate to any other great collectible.   Amazing Spider-Mans #1 tends not to decrease in supply even though many were destroyed decades ago. 

I would be surprised if the supply of Black Loti in existence ten years from now is more than +/- 20 what it is today. 

Secondly, while I admit that some Black Lotus and other power were probably destroyed or lost, the vast majority of that loss occured in the early years of the game.    The supply has probably been quite static since around 1997.    In any case, I think the amount destroyed has been greatly overstated.   Magic was, from its inception, billed as a collectible card game.   While may were probably thrown out, I would be surprised if it is as great as some people suggest. 

4) The Price of Power Will Continue to Go Up (Implicit in this: The Price of Power Doesn't Track Interest in Vintage)

This is untrue.  The price of power and other Vintage cards is a function of utility in Vintage.

In 2001, no one played Competitive Vintage. there were no Vintage tournametns, no Vintage Championship, no SCG P9, no Waterbury. Really, the only Vintage tournaments were online, or 20 player scrubfests in NOVA or Neutral Ground. There was a burgeoning scene in Germany, with 60-70 players a tournament at the Dulmen. That was pretty much it.

Vintage prices? I bought an Unlimited Black Lotus in 2002 for $200. Moxen were about $120. They really hadn't changed prices, except accounting for inflation, in about half a decade.

In 2002-2003, Vintage started to grow, and grow very quickly. What happened? This happened at a grassroots level, and it eventually led to the Waterbury, which began in 2003, the SCG P9 series, which began in 2004, and the Vintage Championship, which also began in 2003. Vintage prices grew correspondingly. Pete Hoefling has stated that Starcitygames may actually be responsible for the spike in the prices of power we saw from 2002-2005, which is when 90% of the growth in the price of power occurred. How? My recollection is that when SCG ran out of an item, they would spike the price so people would stop ordering. In this way, SCG actually led the market.

But don't take my word for it.

Take a look at the price trends for several cards:

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/AN/Juzam_Djinn.html

The price of Vintage staples has not changed at a constant rate. Juzam Djinn was as valuable, if not more so, then Moxen back in 1995-1996. It's value eventually rose to $200-$250 in the mid1990s, and has declined since. A couple of years ago, I saw Juzam Djinn basically selling around $100 a pop. Looking at ebay, Juzams often sell for less than $100.

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/UN/Mox_Sapphire.html

Mox Sapphire has actually declined since its peak in value a few years ago (I dont' think that trend line reflects that, but dealers can tell you), although its price is trending back up.

For real evidence on how use in Vintage affects price, look at this card:

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/AN/Bazaar_of_Baghdad.html

Before WGD combo, Bazaar of Baghdad was worth actually around $50 a piece, simply on account of its scarcity. It's increasing usage, first in Uba Stax, and now in Ichorid explains the 4 fold increase.

The same is true of Mishra's Workshop.
http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/AQ/Mishra_s_Workshop.html

I wish the trend line went back further, because this is an even better example.

Mishra's Workshop was unrestricted in 1999, but languished in relative obscurity. While Bazaar of Baghdad didn't really see competitive Vintage play until 2003, Workshop started to see play in late 2001/2002, and exploded when Stax came on the scene in 2003, about a year before bazaar really took off. Workshop went from being $60-70 to $130, and then when Workshops won multiple tournaments in 2005-6, it spiked to its current level.

If Vintage magic suddenly ended, and if people suddenly stopped playing, and went back to the 2001 level of play, I think that Vintage prices would decline, and decline precipitously, although not at a constant rate. It would resemble Juzam Djinn. If Juzam had trended with Black Lotus, it would be worth what a Lotus is worth today. It's not. Even though it sees no play, it has retained some value that is disproportionate to its utility or its iconic status. That's becuase Vintage cards have 'sticky' prices, which is partly explained by the fact that some people won't sell at the lower price, given their initial cost investment. They'd rather just hold onto their cards. So the supply would actually shrink, even as the prices declined. I also suspect that casual players enjoy Juzam, so that is driving a tiny bit of their value.


5) Vintage Needs a Huge Tournament Scene to be Successful/Sustainable

I can't think of a single reason why this would be true.    Why does a format need 1000 player tournaments to be successful?   Many Grand Prixs have far less.    The largest constructed Grand Prix was Grand Prix Chicago, with over a thousand players, but the Legacy Championships only got 180 players this past weekend.

To be successful and thrive, Vintage needs only to actually have as many large scale Vintage tournaments per year as there are Pro Tours.   

The key for Vintage is sustainability.  It doesn't need to grow beyond the rate necessary to replace those who leave.   

If the largest Vintage tournaments in the US could regularly reach 200 competitors, that would be very sustainable.    That way, TOs could organize P9 events, charge $25 for entry, and make a decent profit.   

In short, a very  healthy Vintage scene, at most, needs 4-5 200 player tournaments per year.    That should be the goal.

====


That said, I don't know what the solution is.     Five years since Proxies have become common place in the US, I think we can attribute at least several consequences to them:


1) They undoubtedly contributed to the rapid growth that Vintage experienced from 2002-20005.   

2) They undoubtedly contributed to the massive sell-off high-end Vintage cards to Europeans and elsewhere.    Because of Proxies, Americans sold many of our high-end cards overseas.

3) It Creates Detachment from Vintage because people who sell off, not intending to quit Vintage, are more likely to quit Vintage.    People who compete in Vintage are less likely to own power, as well.

If the most important goal for Vintage is retention, and I strongly believe that it is, then (3) is quite problematic.

(2) is problematic because it means that we may be past the point of no return.   It may simply be too difficult to revive Vintage without proxies.


====


So, what is to be done about all of this?  I don't think there is a perfect solution, but I do think there is one thing that we can all get behind: we should legalize CE cards for Vintage play.    CE cards are *real* cards, not power.  They have value, and they are awesome to look at and admire.

[thorme]

How many $500 bills printed in 1993 are destroyed/lost/sitting in a shoe box since, I dunno, 1997? 

Not sure what point you're trying to make, as this example seems to best serve against your argument.

First, the government doesn't have a no-reprint policy, and secondly we have a vast array of proxies for cash in our society (checks, credit cards, etc, etc).   Pretty sure if we as a nation limited financial transactions to original cash currency only, we'd bring the economy to its knees and be much, much less healthy.

[Smmenen]

How many $500 bills printed in 1993 are destroyed/lost/sitting in a shoe box since, I dunno, 1997? 

Not sure what point you're trying to make, as this example seems to best serve against your argument.

First, the government doesn't have a no-reprint policy, and secondly we have a vast array of proxies for cash in our society (checks, credit cards, etc, etc).   Pretty sure if we as a nation limited financial transactions to original cash currency only, we'd bring the economy to its knees and be much, much less healthy.

LOL, my point was that things of significant value have a funny way of being found or remembered.

[thorme]

Ah, I missed the point as I wasn't looking at your example through the lens of being one of the tiny sliver of the population that could tell you the value of a Lotus.

[Neonico]

Seriously, it's boring to allways read answers like that to anyone who brings contradiction to your posts....
Why would you be more right than me or anyone that think like me ?

It's for example really STUPID (sorry but it's the only word) to claim that vintage will survive with the actual player pool that we have today. Like any other magic format, people quit playing vintage for many reasons : Job, family, children, mariage, buying a house, a car, or whatever. Yes, you need to try to keep as many actual players as you can, but it's clearly utopia to think that vintage won't decline if there are no new players, and at least nothing done to encourage new players to discover the format.

And facts tend to prove, both in my aera, but when i also read what people write here on the manadrain, that i'm right and you're clealry wrong... I started to play back in late 2004, and had a huge interest in tournament results/Reportssince then, here on the manadrain (and mainly SCG P9). Just look, as you were used to play those tournaments, how many new players you got in the last 5 years, and how many players left the scene in the same period. Just look at your teamates, like roland chang, Matthieu Durand, look at CAB team, and many others... How much of those players still playing now ?

Point 4 : i don't know from where you can pretend that power price doesn't grow continually for years now.... And keep on growing. The fact that people now buying power in bad condition to lower the price they must spend to enter the format is clearly an example of what i tend to think, not what you claim. Even peice that are the most aviable on the market : pearl and emerald, got a stable price, even with alot of offer.

Point 5 : once again, no one ever pretended that vintage need some GP like tournaments, with 1000+ players. And hey, it'sjust another argument for proxies. The most important tournaments are those organised by shops. And guess what ? Shop need to make proxy tournaments, just because they have people used to cometo play in the shopsthat should beable to attend, even in vintage tournaments, with something else than WW kithkin deck. Don't know if it's true in the US (but it seems to be when i read annoucement) but it is at least here in France. And as i allready said, a local proxy scene doesn't mean that TO can't make big no proxy tournaments, such as Bazaar of Moxen, Ovinoggueddon and so on.... But those tournaments shouldn't be the tree that hides the forest. But it's a clear paradox to say that vintage oplkayers don't need tournaments and they still will buy power. What's the point of buying power with no tournaments to play in ? Come on, seriously, it's such a huge invest

About point 2 : It's not just about the 2000 active vintage players. Seriously, when i started to play magic in 1994, there were no sleeves, power had a very low value, and so on, and we did destroy alot of power at this time. If you can find picture of the first World Championship, in the duelist, just look how lestree shuffle his deck and you'll getan ideato what happenedto alot of Alpha/Beta/Unlim cards.... Now, add the fact that i think there is at least as much power in collections and Cubes that there is for players, and you'll see that your 18 000 powers won'tbe enough in the near future.

In your conclusions, point 1 and 2 are right, point 3 is clearly wrong. Someone that quits vintage magic, the main reason often is family job or just not want/don't have time to play anymore. And the fact that people can quit easier because they don't own power is wrong as well, just because selling power is very easy, and you even often win money, just because the price doesn't stop growing.

[Tha Gunslinga]

There's probably more power in circulation currently than was created in A/B/U due to the presence of fakes.  Vintage will not die due to lack of access to cards, I can assure you.

[Smmenen]

Ah, I missed the point as I wasn't looking at your example through the lens of being one of the tiny sliver of the population that could tell you the value of a Lotus.

I think there has been a cultural shift in the last decade on that point.    Television shows such as antique roadshow and companies such as Ebay have produced a culture in which people are much, much more sensitive to potential value than they would have been even a decade ago.    The chances of finding a truly valuable item at a garage sale or a flea market in 1995 were much, much greater than they are in 2009.    People just assume they have valuable junk nowadays, even old people.  

Seriously, it's boring to allways read answers like that to anyone who brings contradiction to your posts....
Why would you be more right than me or anyone that think like me ?

It's for example really STUPID (sorry but it's the only word) to claim that vintage will survive with the actual player pool that we have today.

I don't think you caught the meaning of my post.   I never said that Vintage will survive with the player pool we have today.   Rather, I was critiquing the claim that Vintage needs new players to survive.  

The reason I was critiquing this claim is because of its emphasis.     Focusing on getting new players detracts from the far more important goal of retaining existing players for a longer period of time.    

It's simple math:

There are only two ways to increase tournament attendance: 1) acquire new players, 2) retain old players better. It’s a simple stock and flows issue. The pipeline to Vintage flows at a trickle. All of the formats that springboard into Vintage have their own springboards, which makes the flow of players into Vintage much lighter than for any other format.  A much higher retention rate with a much lower new player rate is much preferred to a higher new player rate and a lower retention rate simply because it is much harder to get new players than it is to retain existing ones.  

Given the barriers to entry (not just card access, but card knowledge), keeping existing players in the tournament scene is far more efficient than trying to bring new players in.    The survival of Vintage depends FAR more on RETENTION than new players.

But even on its face, the statement that Vintage will die any time in the near future (i.e. next two decades) without new players is questionable.   Of course, at some point Vintage would die without new players (that's why I said: "While not outright wrong per se (at least, in the Long, Long run)"), but my point is that it's not the lack of new players that issue: it's the problem with retention.  

The vast majority of Vintage players are under the age of 30.   Assuming a normal life span distribution, Vintage could survive as a tournament format for the next 5 decades, if all of these players continued to play.   Of course, it's unrealistic to think that might be true, but my point is that the statement that Vintage needs new players is not, by itself, logically true.   There is something else going on that needs to be addressed.  That something else is this:

 Like any other magic format, people quit playing vintage for many reasons : Job, family, children, mariage, buying a house, a car, or whatever.

Exactly.    Those reasons and more!   My (implicit) point is that these need not be true.  

The traditional understanding of Magic, and Vintage as well, was that people will grow out of it as they leave college and build families. I think, to some extent, there has been a stigma or an understanding that once people reach a certain age, they stop playing Magic, and like a self-fulfilling prophesy, it has happened.

There is no reason this needs to be true. Ironically, once players settle down and start a family, it's actually easier to play Vintage Magic than in those first few post-college years, since people settle into a more regular routine and the stigma of playing Magic while dating is irrelevant once you are married. As for the time commitment, married men do all sorts of activities on weekends that do not involve their families, whether it is golfing, club sports, watching TV, or hopping to the local movie theatre for an afternoon flick. What’s the difference between playing Magic once a month and any of these activities?

The usual excuse given is that people say they no longer have time to play Vintage because of "real life" are really just making excuses. They're actually just doing some other hobby, working on a house project, doing chores, or watching sports. The actual difference is the stigma. Doing those things may seem somehow more ‘legitimate’ or ‘grownup’ than sitting in a card shop with teenagers playing Magic. This is need not be the case, and more and more I am seeing that it is not the case. Instead of hanging out at the card shop, it’s more and more seen as hanging out with your buddies on a Saturday or Sunday afternoon. Luis-Scott Vargas and Patrick Chapin are about the same age as myself. While LSV might slow down his Magic playing in the near future, I don’t see him ever giving up Vintage. I don’t ever see Patrick giving up Magic, even at the Pro level, unless he is completely thrust into some other intriguing enterprise. It's a choice that people make to play Magic, and with the overall aging condition of the Magic population and especially the Vintage crowd, it’s a choice that will carry less stigma and seem more sensible over time.

In my opinion, part of the long-term, sustained health of Vintage has to turn on supported by mid-twenty-somethings and older. In fact, that's a huge advantage that Vintage has over the rest of competitive Magicdom. It’s an older, more mature crowd. Wizards is blind in not seeing the business opportunity here, and it’s something that Vintage (and legacy) should continue to sell itself on. Grand Prix Chicago was the last major open Magic tournament I’ve played in, and I saw precious few kids or younger teenagers there. Everywhere I looked it was adults. I suspect that it was a product of the fact that it was an eternal format. Yet it was still the largest Grand Prix in American history. Adults may have less time, and they may not be interested in Friday night Magic, but they can certainly be sold on the merits of a Sunday or Saturday afternoon tournament once or twice a month. Vintage should and must find ways to ensure that it’s current player base sticks around. It’s simple math. The flows into Vintage are small. The best way to increase tournament attendance is by keeping existing players in the format. Vintage needs to target those players who are reaching the threshold of college age, and might be seeing themselves leave the format. It needs to find ways to keep them around and engaged. If we can do that, Vintage will thrive in the long run.

The problem is that we haven't.  

Vintage tournaments are not geared towards people who are getting older.  They are often run as if the player base is simply teenagers instead of adults with professions.    

Here is a formula for growing Vintage:  If you treat Vintage players like professional adults, Vintage will grow.  Why? Simply because if more players are being retained, then the flow into Vintage will produce, over time, greater stocks of players.  

It's like a bathtub.   Even if the faucet runs at a trickle, if you have a plug in the drain, then the bathwater will continue to rise.  

Vintage Tournament Organizers have gotten it wrong.   As has the Vintage community.  As has Wizards     Focusing efforts on bringing in new players is a misuse of resources.   It's simply inefficient.   The best way to increase the player base is to:

a) Create a Tournament Experience that Will Help Retain Existing Players

b) Find Ways to Ensure that when people who have quit Magic are thinking about Coming Back (we can call it the reentry opportunity) they are successfulyl brought back.

These two things alone will do far more than anything else to grow Vintage in the long run.

Yes, you need to try to keep as many actual players as you can, but it's clearly utopia to think that vintage won't decline if there are no new players, and at least nothing done to encourage new players to discover the format.

It's not that I think that we should do *nothing* to encourage new players to play Vintage.   Rather, it's that I think nothing needs to be done.    There is a natural pipeline into Vintage: it's players who are curious about the format, etc.  Vintage can sell itself without trying to recruit new players.

Rather, my point is that it is a misuse of resources to focus on new players.  

And facts tend to prove, both in my aera, but when i also read what people write here on the manadrain, that i'm right and you're clealry wrong... I started to play back in late 2004, and had a huge interest in tournament results/Reportssince then, here on the manadrain (and mainly SCG P9). Just look, as you were used to play those tournaments, how many new players you got in the last 5 years, and how many players left the scene in the same period. Just look at your teamates, like roland chang, Matthieu Durand, look at CAB team, and many others... How much of those players still playing now ?

Exactly.  See above.

Point 4 : i don't know from where you can pretend that power price doesn't grow continually for years now.... And keep on growing.

Because it hasn't.  

Look at timetwister:

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/UN/Timetwister.html

Look at Vintage history.  The Price of Power was essentially stagnant from 1997 to 2001.   Black Lotus was $200 from 1996 to 2001.   Look at Juzam Djinn.  In 1996 it was $200-250.  Today, it can be found on ebay for a little more than $100.    The price of these old card does not inevitably go up.  It goes up with the utilty of the cards.  

I have provided plenty of evidence that the price of high end Vintage cards is a function of utility in Vintage.  Want more evidence?

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/AN/Bazaar_of_Baghdad.html

Was about $40 in 2003.   Look at its value now.

Same thing here:
http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/UN/Time_Vault.html

The REAL value of the cards does not inevitably go up.  It goes up with the use of the card in Vintage.

That was the point that I was making.   If you read my post carefully, you'll see that that is the point.   There is this incorrect assumption/perception that Power goes up continually without it's value in Vintage mattering.  This is false. \

A huge contributing factor, besides utility in Vintage, has been the devaluation of the dollar relative to the Euro from 2003-2006.  That made it much cheaper for Europeans to buy American cards, and led to price inflation here and abroad.

[nataz]

Ah, I missed the point as I wasn't looking at your example through the lens of being one of the tiny sliver of the population that could tell you the value of a Lotus.

zing

[juzamjimnjuice]

The sense of entitlement that Americans have is amazing.  There may be some angry and upset replies to this post, but honestly, this has to be stated.

Most readers will fail to see the American housing market analogy but I will make it anyways.  I'll also throw in a combo of politics as well. 

1.  Competitive Vintage is an expensive format to play.
2.  Competitive Standard is an expensive format to play.
3.  Competitive Legacy and Extended are expensive formats as well.

Vintage proxy mania
The use of proxies basically allowed many people that couldn't afford to play in competitive Vintage the ability to play competitive Vintage.  Even if they could not afford to play competitive Vintage.

USA Housing bubble
Likewise many people that had no jobs or credit or money were allowed to buy homes that they could not afford. 
The US banks were basically creating "proxy" loans.  Sham loans were made to people that could not afford and therefore did not deserve to own an expensive "McMansion" home. 
Now the chickens have come home to roost and people are getting evicted out of their homes they could not afford to own. 

This is called reality. 

In Vintage there is now earnest discussion of zero proxy tournaments in America.  This would mean a lot of people that cannot afford to play competitive Vintage would be evicted from competitive Vintage. 

This too is called reality. 

Love alone is not enough
I understand a lot of you love Vintage.  In business, in relationships, and in reality, love alone just is not enough.  Just because you love a format, does not give you entitlement to play a format.     

Here's an example.  I love the Mercedes Roadster.  I study the specs of  Mercedes Roadsters and know a lot about Mercedes.  A Mercedes Roadster is my favorite car.  I do not have enough funds to buy a Mercedes Roadster.  I am not entitled to it. 

I understand this sounds like I am a Vintage Elitist, but actually I'm simply a realist. 

Europeans understand reality a bit better than Americans.  Europeans have suffered under the yo-yo government schemes of Communism and Socialism for many years. 

Politics and Magic, Vintage comboed
Clearly America is eagerly rushing towards that lovely ideal of Socialism and perhaps even quasi-Communism.  You read evidence of this fact on these forums the outright demands that everyone, every man, every child, is intrinsically entitled to play the format consisting of the most expensive, most collectible cards in the entire game of Magic the Gathering. 

[2nd_lawl]

The sense of entitlement that Americans have is amazing.  There may be some angry and upset replies to this post, but honestly, this has to be stated.

Most readers will fail to see the American housing market analogy but I will make it anyways.  I'll also throw in a combo of politics as well.  

1.  Competitive Vintage is an expensive format to play.
2.  Competitive Standard is an expensive format to play.
3.  Competitive Legacy and Extended are expensive formats as well.

Vintage proxy mania
The use of proxies basically allowed many people that couldn't afford to play in competitive Vintage the ability to play competitive Vintage.  Even if they could not afford to play competitive Vintage.

USA Housing bubble
Likewise many people that had no jobs or credit or money were allowed to buy homes that they could not afford.  
The US banks were basically creating "proxy" loans.  Sham loans were made to people that could not afford and therefore did not deserve to own an expensive "McMansion" home.  
Now the chickens have come home to roost and people are getting evicted out of their homes they could not afford to own.  

This is called reality.  

In Vintage there is now earnest discussion of zero proxy tournaments in America.  This would mean a lot of people that cannot afford to play competitive Vintage would be evicted from competitive Vintage.  

This too is called reality.  

Love alone is not enough
I understand a lot of you love Vintage.  In business, in relationships, and in reality, love alone just is not enough.  Just because you love a format, does not give you entitlement to play a format.    

Here's an example.  I love the Mercedes Roadster.  I study the specs of  Mercedes Roadsters and know a lot about Mercedes.  A Mercedes Roadster is my favorite car.  I do not have enough funds to buy a Mercedes Roadster.  I am not entitled to it.  

I understand this sounds like I am a Vintage Elitist, but actually I'm simply a realist.  

Europeans understand reality a bit better than Americans.  Europeans have suffered under the yo-yo government schemes of Communism and Socialism for many years.  

Politics and Magic, Vintage comboed
Clearly America is eagerly rushing towards that lovely ideal of Socialism and perhaps even quasi-Communism.  You read evidence of this fact on these forums the outright demands that everyone, every man, every child, is intrinsically entitled to play the format consisting of the most expensive, most collectible cards in the entire game of Magic the Gathering.  

Clearly, playing with cardboard is analogous to housing and health care. Get over yourself, there is no political bent to the issue of proxies.

Edit: Alot of what drives the cost of the format (which is exaggerated by nearly everyone both inside and outside the community) is that vintage players are obsessed with foiling out, and foreigning out their decks.  proof of this is easy to find:

All prices are from SCG:

Broodmate Dragon: 4.99
Foil Broodmate Dragon: 9.99

Goblin Welder: 6.99
Foil Goblin Welder: 79.99

[Smmenen]

Some additional thoughts:

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=33669.msg536622#new

[LordHomerCat]

Edit: Alot of what drives the cost of the format (which is exaggerated by nearly everyone both inside and outside the community) is that vintage players are obsessed with foiling out, and foreigning out their decks.  proof of this is easy to find:

All prices are from SCG:

Broodmate Dragon: 4.99
Foil Broodmate Dragon: 9.99

Goblin Welder: 6.99
Foil Goblin Welder: 79.99

What?  This has nothing to do with anything.  The people who are buying Foil Welders and asian Fetchlands and stuff like that usually already have power (and often Beta or Alpha versions).  This doesn't have any real effect on the cost of the format, as those of us who dont own power (or possibly don't want to own it) can easily just get the cheap english versions of things and not worry about it.

[2nd_lawl]

Edit: Alot of what drives the cost of the format (which is exaggerated by nearly everyone both inside and outside the community) is that vintage players are obsessed with foiling out, and foreigning out their decks.  proof of this is easy to find:

All prices are from SCG:

Broodmate Dragon: 4.99
Foil Broodmate Dragon: 9.99

Goblin Welder: 6.99
Foil Goblin Welder: 79.99

What?  This has nothing to do with anything.  The people who are buying Foil Welders and asian Fetchlands and stuff like that usually already have power (and often Beta or Alpha versions).  This doesn't have any real effect on the cost of the format, as those of us who dont own power (or possibly don't want to own it) can easily just get the cheap english versions of things and not worry about it.

That's the point, vintage players talking about their $7,000 black bordered foreign foiled out deck scares away the uninformed because it gives the impression that that is what it takes to compete or that is what is the norm for the format, when in fact if you are willing to buy beat up white bordered cards, even owning full power isn't that expensive relative to the money many people spend on other hobbies.  Anyway, because the prices of power is relativey stable, buying power is a very safe investment, you will almost certainly be able to get rid of it for 95% of what you paid(assuming you shopped around for a good deal on purchase).  What im getting at is that the whole "high cost of entry" is kind of overblown, and people inside the vintage community are as guilty as those outside for creating that impression.

[LordHomerCat]

I mean sure, you don't have to spend 7 grand to build a deck.  But if you are including power, you do need 3-4 grand to build a Tezzeret deck with even the cheapest versions of everything.  That is still a ridiculously high cost of entry.

No one suggests you need anything but the cheapest version of every card to play.  But even the cheapest power still costs a ton.

[Sean Ryan]

The sense of entitlement that Americans have is amazing.  There may be some angry and upset replies to this post, but honestly, this has to be stated.

Most readers will fail to see the American housing market analogy but I will make it anyways.  I'll also throw in a combo of politics as well. 

1.  Competitive Vintage is an expensive format to play.
2.  Competitive Standard is an expensive format to play.
3.  Competitive Legacy and Extended are expensive formats as well.

Vintage proxy mania



The use of proxies basically allowed many people that couldn't afford to play in competitive Vintage the ability to play competitive Vintage.  Even if they could not afford to play competitive Vintage.

USA Housing bubble
Likewise many people that had no jobs or credit or money were allowed to buy homes that they could not afford. 
The US banks were basically creating "proxy" loans.  Sham loans were made to people that could not afford and therefore did not deserve to own an expensive "McMansion" home. 
Now the chickens have come home to roost and people are getting evicted out of their homes they could not afford to own. 

This is called reality. 

In Vintage there is now earnest discussion of zero proxy tournaments in America.  This would mean a lot of people that cannot afford to play competitive Vintage would be evicted from competitive Vintage. 

This too is called reality. 

Love alone is not enough
I understand a lot of you love Vintage.  In business, in relationships, and in reality, love alone just is not enough.  Just because you love a format, does not give you entitlement to play a format.     

Here's an example.  I love the Mercedes Roadster.  I study the specs of  Mercedes Roadsters and know a lot about Mercedes.  A Mercedes Roadster is my favorite car.  I do not have enough funds to buy a Mercedes Roadster.  I am not entitled to it. 

I understand this sounds like I am a Vintage Elitist, but actually I'm simply a realist. 

Europeans understand reality a bit better than Americans.  Europeans have suffered under the yo-yo government schemes of Communism and Socialism for many years. 

Politics and Magic, Vintage comboed
Clearly America is eagerly rushing towards that lovely ideal of Socialism and perhaps even quasi-Communism.  You read evidence of this fact on these forums the outright demands that everyone, every man, every child, is intrinsically entitled to play the format consisting of the most expensive, most collectible cards in the entire game of Magic the Gathering. 

This was hilaroius.

[pierce]

No one suggests you need anything but the cheapest version of every card to play.  But even the cheapest power still costs a ton.

what about that pearl you had at worlds? the one you apparantly gave back to its owner, and he said 'k thnx' and shoved it in his pocket   
i'd pay no more than 50 for that thing. and I'd love to get a whole set just like it.

as for CE, the idea seems to work. It'll keep the older power at it's value too, due to the square ass edges and lame backing. But, those cards already sell for 100$ and up, so that'll not really undo the cost issue all that much. Especially when starcity triples the price when the legalization changes.

as for the print run of 18,000--one way to look at how many are in circulation would be to see how many have been graded and sealed away. At least that many are no longer being sold to players.

[LotusHead]

The fact is that the more weplay and the time goes, the less aviable power you will get, and after power, you'll have more and more problems to acces to Bilands, than Force of Wills, etc.....

Proxies are the future of vintage in my point of view... Simply because 17 years after, the power print run is too low.

Yeah, because 18,000 printed copies of Black Lotus is not nearly enough to support a couple of hundred Vintage players.   

Oh wait...

Is it really 18,000 Black Lotuses?

Anyways, I wonder how many of the existing Black Loti are in use today?  As opposed to lost/destroyed/sealed in a plastic case never to be used.
For example, "I" have one, and a good chunk of NorCal players have one, but me teammates do not have one.

Just a thought.  This was inspired by Aardshark's comment that for example, Time Vault is in probably more vintage decks than say, Mox Emerald, and he was wondering where all the Time Vault's have disappeared to.  I am eBay impaired so I have no idea.

[Juggernaut GO]

I think at the peak of vintage somewhere 2004-2005 the highest attendance at waterbury was like 210 players.

I ran my tournament in june 2008 and got 125 players and was more then happy with the attendance.
My november tournament got considerably less, but it was my fault as it was a bad time to schedule a tournament all around.

I think it would be more then reasonable to set up a quarterly P9 series something like what Star City used to do.

I'm currently looking into doing this for 2010, with a giant double P9 event every 3 months.

I think losing the large scale vintage events has hurt the community.  There used to be nothing cooler then getting a carload of friends together and traveling to richmond or syracuse or chicago for a P9 tournament.  As star city moved away from sponsoring vintage events, i think that had quite a lot to do with the decline of tournament attendance overall.