[Free Article] The City of Zombie Love

[voltron00x]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/18901_The_Long_Winding_Road_The_City_of_Zombie_Love.html

Last Saturday, I played Dredge at the Philly Open and battled it out with 82 players.  My article this week offers some thoughts on Dredge - why I played it, why I like it, how the deck is more skill-intensive than the naysayers would have you believe, and the thought process that led to the exact list I played.

Dredge is a freaking monster.  People that want to tell you the deck is a glass cannon, or is going to hit a down cycle soon, are either fooling themselves or ignoring the data to the contrary.  When is soon, exactly?  The deck won the NYSE III in August, won the following Blue Bell, won the Philly Open IV, got 2nd at the January Blue Bell Game Day, won the NYSE V, and put two players in the top 4 of the Philly Open V including one in the finals... does anyone honestly believe the field just hasn't "adapted" for the last six months?  Dredge is a beatable deck, for sure, but the number of dedicated sideboard cards you need to beat it keeps climbing.  6 cards?  7 cards?  Good chance that's not enough for some, if not most, archetypes.  Only a metagame shift towards fast combo decks and/or maindeck Leyline is going to tame the beast that is modern Vintage Dredge.  Otherwise you can expect to keep seeing it make the finals - provided that people play the deck right and pack the right 75.  Like any other deck, mastering Dredge requires practice and adapation / prediction to stay ahead of the field.

As an example:  I played Brassman in the top 8 on Saturday.  He is, by my estimation, at least 10x the Magic player I'll ever be.  He had almost no chance of winning game 1.  Game 2, he drew at least 4 sideboard cards that I know of (Ravenous Trap, Ravenous Trap, Trapmaker's Snare, Pyroclasm) and still lost.  Admittedly he was seriously mana-flooded - but this is not your father's Dredge.  It doesn't just fold to hate.  Picking a random set of 6-7 sideboard cards is not going to let you "get there" against today's Dredge.  Further, people insist on running the WRONG hate. 

That's a story for another day.

Just read the article - and hopefully I can connect with Mr Coss this week and get deep into those 82 decklists for next week.

[Smmenen]

awesome matt.

you are on a streak.   four top 8s in a row with different archetypes means you are honed in.   now you just gotta start WINNING them and you'll be a terror. 

[The Atog Lord]

Thank you, Matt. That was a good read. Congrats on your finish.

[myw002]

So since you live only like 1 hr away, can we do some playtesting

Congrats on the finish man.  I have to agree with Steve said regarding finishing Top 8 with 3 different archetypes.  Good job!

[FAVO!!!!1]

So for games 3 against Oath and Tez, what do you side out to bring the Chalices back in (obviously keeping in mind what kind of hate they already presented to you)? What if they are running a smattering of hate cards like you have been suggesting in the last couple months? Do you miss Serenity? That card is an absolute blow out against Stax!

Great article though ^.^ And I agree with everything you said about dredge: It is a very hard deck to hate while still presenting the pilot many challenges on his/her own. I played a Dredge deck this weekend just 5 cards shy of Mark's deck, and I can honestly say in all of the games I lost, I made a mistake. Even Mark said he made a few mistakes this weekend too. If that is not proof that Dredge is a tactical deck, I don't know what is. Good job again.

[Beralt]

Great read - Matt.  Reposting some stuff I mentioned over on SCG.

I guess that Trapmaker's Snare is going to see some vintage play in sideboards with Ravenous Trap and Mindbreak Trap.

I like the list with Main Deck Nature's Claims, have you considered a Singleton Dryad Arbor for finding your green mana out of the Graveyard?

[voltron00x]

So for games 3 against Oath and Tez, what do you side out to bring the Chalices back in (obviously keeping in mind what kind of hate they already presented to you)? What if they are running a smattering of hate cards like you have been suggesting in the last couple months? Do you miss Serenity? That card is an absolute blow out against Stax!

Great article though ^.^ And I agree with everything you said about dredge: It is a very hard deck to hate while still presenting the pilot many challenges on his/her own. I played a Dredge deck this weekend just 5 cards shy of Mark's deck, and I can honestly say in all of the games I lost, I made a mistake. Even Mark said he made a few mistakes this weekend too. If that is not proof that Dredge is a tactical deck, I don't know what is. Good job again.

re: Chalice... Honestly it really varies so it’s hard for me to give a definitive answer.

Against Tezz and Oath, I’m probably taking out 1 Pithing Needle, 1 Golgari Thug, and then the other two cards are going to vary depending on what hate I saw.  For example, might cut 1 Unmask and 1 Nature’s Claim, or take out the 2nd Thug.  Then again, if my opponent has really overloaded on hate, I might have to leave the Chalice in the SB.

I've actually been campaigning lately for people to avoid going overboard on the mix of hate cards, b/c I haven't found it effective against prepared Dredge players.  I think that right now, with Nature's Claim entering the mix, the best cards against Dredge are still Leyline with Jailer picking up value, and you want those combined with access to some sweepers like Tormod's and Trap.  Decks with counterspells should look at Needle as well.  Hopefully some other anti-Fish board sweeper (like Balance or Pyroclasm) can come in on top.  Honestly it really takes like 6-8 dedicated SB cards and some incidental action on top for a lot of decks to consistently beat Dredge.  

re: Serenity, I see the potential and I like it in theory, but I'm running a low land count... not sure if it fits with this deck design.  Its much better in a mana list.  I also like the fact that it handles multiple Leylines but I think if that becomes a problem better solved by other means.  Which leads me to...

Great read - Matt.  Reposting some stuff I mentioned over on SCG.

I guess that Trapmaker's Snare is going to see some vintage play in sideboards with Ravenous Trap and Mindbreak Trap.

I like the list with Main Deck Nature's Claims, have you considered a Singleton Dryad Arbor for finding your green mana out of the Graveyard?

I like the idea of Arbor, but I wouldn't play it that way.  I'd probably jettison City of Brass and make room for some fetches, a Bayou, and an Arbor.  Then in the SB you can use Darkblast and/or Contagion (for Jailer), Needle, Nature's Claim, Reverant Silence, Unmask, and so on.  That's a great way to adapt if the field starts to bank on Leylines.  Arbor seems like it would be really insane with Bloodghast and fetches.

[nataz]

Love the article, and love playing dredge. I’m also a HUGE fan of you writing about vintage. I think you are doing a great job and hope you keep it up for a very long time.

I just wanted to comment on something you said in the article about dredge not being a glass cannon, and what it takes to stop dredge.

I've actually been campaigning lately for people to avoid going overboard on the mix of hate cards, b/c I haven't found it effective against prepared Dredge players.  I think that right now, with Nature's Claim entering the mix, the best cards against Dredge are still Leyline with Jailer picking up value, and you want those combined with access to some sweepers like Tormod's and Trap.  Decks with counterspells should look at Needle as well.  Hopefully some other anti-Fish board sweeper (like Balance or Pyroclasm) can come in on top.  Honestly it really takes like 6-8 dedicated SB cards and some incidental action on top for a lot of decks to consistently beat Dredge. 

See, here’s the thing. All of this applies post board, which to me just entails that dredge still isn't getting enough respect. Imagine if dredge was treated as an actual pillar of vintage, rather than just something to be answered by a few cards in the board. Imagine if Leyline of the Void was maindecked as often as null rod or wasteland.
This is why I don't buy the argument that dredge isn't a glass cannon. You may not need 6-8 dedicated SB cards if people stop conceding game 1 all the time with decks that refuse to give dredge its due. It's the pervasive mentality that dredge is a fringe deck, that it takes no skill, that it’s not a "worthy" deck, and that its too luck dependent, etc., that makes people undervalue it. No one looks at tezz or oath and goes, “I may be a 95% dog game 1, but I guess I’ll just sideboard for it and it will be okay.”
The day that this deck can handle a meta-game comprised of decks designed with dredge in mind is the day that it moves out of the category glass cannon. I think that will take time. We’ve had 10 years to build around control, combo and aggro strategies. Modern prison decks and the shift for solid mana bases in deck design has been around since early 2001, and was helped along by the printing of fetchlands and their synergy with brainstorm. Vintage still hasn’t really adapted to dredge as an archetype (as a group we’re slow to adapt in general), and until it does we’ll never see how consistent it can be. Either its running rampant against meta-games that refuse to take it into account, or it runs into solid walls of hate after a high profile win.
       

[Cruel Ultimatum]

This was a good read as always. One thing that I would like to point out that some people may not know (especially if they are not active dredge players) is that if you dread return Golgari Grave Troll like Matt seems to be in favor of, the Grave troll does count itself when determining how many counters it gets.

[voltron00x]

Love the article, and love playing dredge. I’m also a HUGE fan of you writing about vintage. I think you are doing a great job and hope you keep it up for a very long time.

I just wanted to comment on something you said in the article about dredge not being a glass cannon, and what it takes to stop dredge.

I've actually been campaigning lately for people to avoid going overboard on the mix of hate cards, b/c I haven't found it effective against prepared Dredge players.  I think that right now, with Nature's Claim entering the mix, the best cards against Dredge are still Leyline with Jailer picking up value, and you want those combined with access to some sweepers like Tormod's and Trap.  Decks with counterspells should look at Needle as well.  Hopefully some other anti-Fish board sweeper (like Balance or Pyroclasm) can come in on top.  Honestly it really takes like 6-8 dedicated SB cards and some incidental action on top for a lot of decks to consistently beat Dredge. 

See, here’s the thing. All of this applies post board, which to me just entails that dredge still isn't getting enough respect. Imagine if dredge was treated as an actual pillar of vintage, rather than just something to be answered by a few cards in the board. Imagine if Leyline of the Void was maindecked as often as null rod or wasteland.
This is why I don't buy the argument that dredge isn't a glass cannon. You may not need 6-8 dedicated SB cards if people stop conceding game 1 all the time with decks that refuse to give dredge its due. It's the pervasive mentality that dredge is a fringe deck, that it takes no skill, that it’s not a "worthy" deck, and that its too luck dependent, etc., that makes people undervalue it. No one looks at tezz or oath and goes, “I may be a 95% dog game 1, but I guess I’ll just sideboard for it and it will be okay.”
The day that this deck can handle a meta-game comprised of decks designed with dredge in mind is the day that it moves out of the category glass cannon. I think that will take time. We’ve had 10 years to build around control, combo and aggro strategies. Modern prison decks and the shift for solid mana bases in deck design has been around since early 2001, and was helped along by the printing of fetchlands and their synergy with brainstorm. Vintage still hasn’t really adapted to dredge as an archetype (as a group we’re slow to adapt in general), and until it does we’ll never see how consistent it can be. Either its running rampant against meta-games that refuse to take it into account, or it runs into solid walls of hate after a high profile win.
       

First, thanks for the compliment.  It might sound lame or whatever but the number of people that talked to me about articles in Philly on Saturday blew me away, and it made it a great day.

I agree with the vast majority of what you said.

Generally speaking, most people underestimate Dredge, or have had success ignoring it because it isn’t played in their metagame.

As a further generality, most people underestimate how much better Dredge has gotten over the past 6-8 months.  Part of this is due to the printing of new weapons, and another part is that there are definite “Dredge gurus” popping up and continuing to develop the archetype and drive it forward (in addition to the great work Meadbert has done and continues to do).

One of my points during the lead-up to TFK’s restriction was that Dredge could have and should have been a limiting factor in the success of Tezzeret, but that people refused to pick up the deck for a variety of reasons.

Dredge will always have certain bad match-ups, even ignoring decks like Monte that just play MD Leyline.  TPS is one of them, and ANT is the clearest example of all.  That match-up is exceptionally difficult and hugely unfavorably.

Having said all of that, perhaps my understanding of what makes a “glass cannon” is incorrect. 

In the past, Dredge was most definitely a glass cannon.  You played the deck mainly because other people weren’t running it in your meta and there wasn’t much hate, and therefore you could prey upon the unprepared.  The deck is one of the best, and in some metas nearly unbeatable, if you don’t see any sideboard hate.  Or, you choose to play the deck in a meta that is only partially prepared, hoping to dodge the people that had sideboard hate.

Today, almost everyone has some amount of sideboard hate – especially in the mid-Atlantic, where Dredge has been a fixture at the top tables and in top 8s going back to the larger tournaments in May/June 2009 in Philly.  Still, Dredge keeps winning.  As I noted – if you back out my post-board games against the mirror, I was 6-4 against my opponents in games 2 & 3, so my post-SB win percentage was 60%.  That’s pretty ridiculous. 

Currently, I’d be comfortable playing Dredge and knowing that my opponents will have 5-8 SB cards against me every round.  At a certain threshold, the deck becomes unplayable – such as if everyone starts playing, say, 12 sideboard cards.  However, this is unlikely to happen because even if Dredge is 35% of a metagame, you’re so much worse against the other 65% if you have no sideboard outside of anti-Dredge.

Its very easy to imagine a metagame where Dredge isn’t playable, such as everyone running MD Leylines or whatever – but does that make Dredge a “glass cannon” at this point?  Isn’t it possible to say that about almost any deck?  Its easy to hate out Oath – perhaps easier than modern Dredge.  Does that make Oath a glass cannon?  I still maintain that we could’ve hated Tezz right out of the meta (or at least off the top perch) by pounding it with 5C Stax and Dredge, even with TFK unrestricted.  Any deck can be hated out by an unfavorable metagame, but I don’t think that makes the deck a glass cannon.

The fact that I’m comfortable running Dredge through any Vintage tournament meta that exists at the moment in the face of 6-8 sideboard cards every round has to suggest that this deck is out of the glass cannon category.  It is, and always will be, an extreme example of a linear gone out of control (such as block affinity pre-bannings), but being a linear deck doesn’t automatically bestow glass cannon status.  There are only a few match-ups that Dredge “can’t win” and even those can be combated provided you’re aware going in.  For instance, a Dredge deck can support Force of Will – it isn’t impossible to imagine a Dredge deck sporting FoW, Chalice, and Leyline main in a meta with a heavier Storm presence and still having success. 

[2nd_lawl]

Matt:
Our region has some of the most Skilled Dredge players in the world (yourself, mark, and others).  I really feel like due to the highly regional nature of the format, dredge doesn't get the respect it deserves because it simply isn't piloted  by the top players in other regions. When I hear players from other areas saying things like "I haven't lost to dredge in over a year" or that the deck is somehow skilless or fragile, I am always surprised.  Dredge has made the finals of the 3 largest recent mid-Atlantic tournaments this year(jan 2nd Blue Bell, NYSE lotus event that jake won, and Philly open V), and put many others including yourself in the top8.  By most reasonable measures it is the best deck in the format(at least in our area).  I find it really refreshing that good players in our area are willing to pick up the best deck, and play it instead of maintaining a scrubby gentleman's agreement to play blue decks.

[Rico Suave]

Nice article, and congratulations on your achievement.  

After receiving a thorough beating this weekend from Dredge not once but twice, I have a newly found respect for just how ridiculous the deck is.  I thought I was prepared on Saturday and got annihilated by you.  Then I thought I was prepared on Sunday and got thrashed by the deck again.

The amount of SB space is almost irrelevant.  The deck just wins through so much crap thrown its way, and all it really needs to do is get a good draw in a post-SB game and bam - there goes the match.

The problem is that Dredge has an insanely good game 1 against the entire field.  In order to achieve a reasonable game 1, a person must radically alter the entire contents of his/her main deck.  So the question becomes: do I want to beat Dredge, or do I want to beat the other 80% of the decks at the event?  

For anything that doesn't win on turn 2, the uphill battle is so tremendous to beat this deck.

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

I agree very much that dredge is a serious deck and ever since the printings of recent weapons like Bloodghast and Nature's Claim I think it is safe to say that dredge is now a pillar of Vintage. As long as the Vintage community continues to concede game one to dredge it will keep winning tournaments and overwhelming top-8s. The metagame needs to shift and take dredge seriously rather than just blowing 1/2 their sideboard and still losing to it.

Edit: Oh and of course another amazing read as always.

[KingSquee]

That was a pretty fast turnaround Elias, I was expecting this week's article to be about NYSE 6, and thus feature several name-drops, maybe some even complimentary as I managed to Top 8 that event... anyhoo...

Dredge is an insanely powerful deck, no doubt. That it can now easily run maindeck Nature's Claim makes it even more so IMO, adding to its already-absurd game 1 win percentage.

Its only downside is generally having to mull to Bazaar, which is why I'm still a little hesitant to run it. (I have less than full confidence in my randomization skills, anybody who's ever seen me riffle shuffle my cards could attest to that!) Though with the current mana builds I could conceivably keep a hand without one... would you agree with that?

[wiley]

Do you have any thoughts on Dakmor Salvage past what you wrote in the article?  It appears you only used it once in the tournament, and it never played any major role in your plans.  Would you be comfortable replacing it with a city and trading out a chalice for a 2nd darkblast main?

[Cruel Ultimatum]

How do you feel about Nix?

[voltron00x]

Do you have any thoughts on Dakmor Salvage past what you wrote in the article?  It appears you only used it once in the tournament, and it never played any major role in your plans.  Would you be comfortable replacing it with a city and trading out a chalice for a 2nd darkblast main?

I've tested with Bloodghasts without any Salvage main, and sometimes you just really want to have it.  I'm not sure I won any games b/c of it, but I DID Dredge it in a high number of games, even if it didn't really factor into the writeups.  I wouldn't go below 1, but I'm not sure this build wants 2, either.

I also wouldn't go below 4 Chalice.  The effect is too good.  One of the things I don't like about the other Dredge builds seeing play at the moment are their game 1 win %s seem low compared to the Dredge decks I'm used to.  Chalice is a part of that, I think.

[voltron00x]

How do you feel about Nix?

Can't really speak about Nix intelligently as I haven't tested it.  I know Jake countered a Rav Trap with it at some point during the tournament he won in NY, but I can't say I feel the need for it in my build.