[Free Article] The Q1 2010 Vintage Earnings and Market Report

[Smmenen]

The street is jittery. First quarter earnings reports are in. The first quarter of 2010 was a period of market volatility. Who are the big winners? Who are the big losers? The metagame at the close of 2009 was extremely diverse, with a variety of strong offerings. The printings from Worldwake shook up the marketplace. I’m here to help you sort it all out. This report will describe trends in the Vintage market, including the profitability of each major archetype, with buy/sell recommendations by archetype for investments in the Q2 of 2010.

Lots and lots of charts, graphs, and data for the Vintage competitor.  Learn how to beat the market from this metagame update.  

Monday, May 3rd - In today’s edition of So Many Insane Plays, Stephen Menendian presents his regular breakdown of the movers and shakers in Vintage. He analyzes the results from tournaments across the world, and brings his personal picks for the cards that will rise and fall in the coming months.

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/19278_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Q1_2010_Vintage_Earnings_and_Market_Report.html

[Troy_Costisick]

Heya,

I reall like how you wrote this article, Stephen.  Your brief description of each deck will really appeal to readers who aren't familiar with Vintage.  That's great.  Doing that sort of thing has really worked out for WotC in getting people into or back into playing Magic.  Keep it up!  I would have liked for you to mention The Deck in the article, tho.  After years of it being absent from the meta, having 4 top 8 finishes including a win is a big deal historically, IMHO.

Peace,

-Troy

[Smmenen]

Thanks Troy -- I changed the structure up a bit.   The focus is less on the metagame as a whole and more individual deck performance. 

Highlighting The Deck would have been a good idea -- but this took me a ridiculous amount of time to compile and report. 

[voltron00x]

I made this report 4 times, definitely influencing the results. If I buy and sell, would this be considered insider trading?   

Thanks for doing these, they're a ton of work.  I think it's a great way of getting people's names out there, given the lack of "official" coverage our format gets.  I can only imagine Ryan Glackin's feeling of excitement from seeing his name in print in your article.  He might not be able to fit his head through the door for the rest of the day...

[Smmenen]

Alert the Securities and Exchange Commission.   

Thanks for the kind words Matt.  They are alot of work, but they're worth it.  It's useful for so many purposes.  What are your predictions?

[Marske]

Awesome article, I really like the setup of these. Good job on promoting the format!

Thanks for the hardwork.

[voltron00x]

I think MUD and Oath will sustain or increase in %, Storm will probably start to show up more frequently (although I’d expect Bob Tendrils / Drain Tendrils more than traditional TPS), Noble Fish will cool off some, Dredge seems to be getting less popular despite a very strong conversion percentage to the elim rounds, and Tezz and Stax seem to be struggling at the moment (typical of control decks in a meta which is in flux).

Still, it seems to me that it’s only a matter of time before people get complacent and scale back on their Tezz hate.  At some point the deck will come roaring back.  I think in some areas it is already approaching that point, as Fish players cut their Thadas and Null Rods, and Oath gameplans more for the mirror than for the Tezz match, etc.  I think Brassman was probably ahead of the curve with his list from Philly; although some elements were a little off, that style of Tezz (with a Storm component but still a control deck with a draw engine) seems like a likely model for successful Tezz builds this year.  At some price, you have to start buying up all the Tezz you can.

[Smmenen]

Drain Tendrils is definitely going to be an interesting choice.  But I think people are wrongly discounting TPS.   Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that TPS -- rebuilt for the metagame -- just like it was back in the day -- could be a great choice right now. 

[Sobolev]

I'm a big fan of these market reports, they help me get informed.  Keep up the great writing.

[JACO]

Drain Tendrils is definitely going to be an interesting choice.  But I think people are wrongly discounting TPS.   Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that TPS -- rebuilt for the metagame -- just like it was back in the day -- could be a great choice right now.

Steve, may I inquire as to why you think this? Soly was echoing your sentiments to me last time I saw him, but I can't come to the same conclusion.

TPS is capable of explosives plays and draws, but it's just not a very consistent combo deck compared to Key/Vault, nor does it buy you as many turns if your Plan A or Plan B fail. I'm not sure how it's well positioned to win against the current deck shells and kill conditions of other decks, so I would like to hear more on exactly why Team Meandeck thinks TPS is well positioned.

[KingSquee]

I made this report 4 times, definitely influencing the results. If I buy and sell, would this be considered insider trading?   

Careful Elias, or you may have to do some hard time in a country club prison like Martha Stewart did!

Thanks for doing these, they're a ton of work.  I think it's a great way of getting people's names out there, given the lack of "official" coverage our format gets.  I can only imagine Ryan Glackin's feeling of excitement from seeing his name in print in your article.  He might not be able to fit his head through the door for the rest of the day...

I'm not an SCG Premium Member, but I may be soon in light of this revelation!

[Smmenen]

Drain Tendrils is definitely going to be an interesting choice.  But I think people are wrongly discounting TPS.   Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that TPS -- rebuilt for the metagame -- just like it was back in the day -- could be a great choice right now.

Steve, may I inquire as to why you think this? Soly was echoing your sentiments to me last time I saw him, but I can't come to the same conclusion.

TPS is capable of explosives plays and draws, but it's just not a very consistent combo deck compared to Key/Vault, nor does it buy you as many turns if your Plan A or Plan B fail. I'm not sure how it's well positioned to win against the current deck shells and kill conditions of other decks, so I would like to hear more on exactly why Team Meandeck thinks TPS is well positioned.

Look at this article or even better, this one .   That's the three months prior to Trinispheres restriction.  What was the best performing deck in the format, next to Trinistax?   TPS.  And it wasn't even close. Look at the trend line.  

I know Ben Carp thinks that Oath is favorable against TPS, but I don't think so.  I think that's TPS biggest advantage.  I've found Spell Pierce relatively simple to play around, and Oath is a very slow answer.   The only Oath creature that's really concerning is Iona, which means that even when Oath resolves, you get two turns on average to win.  That's an eternity.   

Oath and Fish are soft to TPS, and TPS can/should be built for MUD, then I think you have a metagame predator.   Bob Tendrils is constrained by Oath.   And I don't see the advantage of Drain Tendrils over the new European Tezzeret lists like I wrote about i this article. 

[Grand Inquisitor]

Look at this article or even better, this one .

...um, this is well before TVKey or even Brainstorm's restriction.  Landstill was the #5 archetype.  I think your argument may reference outdated information.

[Tha Gunslinga]

I know Ben Carp thinks that Oath is favorable against TPS, but I don't think so.  I think that's TPS biggest advantage.  I've found Spell Pierce relatively simple to play around, and Oath is a very slow answer.   The only Oath creature that's really concerning is Iona, which means that even when Oath resolves, you get two turns on average to win.  That's an eternity.   

Terastodon nukes your manabase, though.  I mean, it's a triple Time Walk for mana development.  Spell Pierce can be played around, yes, but Oath still has Forces and Drains to back them up.  I think what it boils down to is that I, with Oath, can beat the average TPS player, while you, with TPS, can beat the average Oath player.

[scifiantihero]

Landstill was the #5 archetype. 

Please don't remind me.  I almost cried.

[voltron00x]

Drain Tendrils is definitely going to be an interesting choice.  But I think people are wrongly discounting TPS.   Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that TPS -- rebuilt for the metagame -- just like it was back in the day -- could be a great choice right now.

Steve, may I inquire as to why you think this? Soly was echoing your sentiments to me last time I saw him, but I can't come to the same conclusion.

TPS is capable of explosives plays and draws, but it's just not a very consistent combo deck compared to Key/Vault, nor does it buy you as many turns if your Plan A or Plan B fail. I'm not sure how it's well positioned to win against the current deck shells and kill conditions of other decks, so I would like to hear more on exactly why Team Meandeck thinks TPS is well positioned.

Look at this article or even better, this one .   That's the three months prior to Trinispheres restriction.  What was the best performing deck in the format, next to Trinistax?   TPS.  And it wasn't even close. Look at the trend line.  

I know Ben Carp thinks that Oath is favorable against TPS, but I don't think so.  I think that's TPS biggest advantage.  I've found Spell Pierce relatively simple to play around, and Oath is a very slow answer.   The only Oath creature that's really concerning is Iona, which means that even when Oath resolves, you get two turns on average to win.  That's an eternity.  

Oath and Fish are soft to TPS, and TPS can/should be built for MUD, then I think you have a metagame predator.   Bob Tendrils is constrained by Oath.   And I don't see the advantage of Drain Tendrils over the new European Tezzeret lists like I wrote about i this article.  

Running Mindbreak Trap and REB in the SB helps the Oath v. TPS match-up a lot.  Thats why I, um, do those things  

Bob Tendrils (the D3G-style Nowakowski and Folinus put together) with FoW is decent against Oath, especially post-SB when they have Duress + FoW.  But I really think it comes down to the SB, and whether the Oath player is actively game-planning against TPS.

People also take different approaches, for instance you might cut Tinker + Sphinx to the SB for games 2 / 3 so that you're 100% to hit a creature that immediately impacts the board, in Terastodon and Iona.

Having said all of that... yes, the data Stephen's pointing to is out of date, but I still think Storm decks that pack sufficient basics have good Shop match-ups post-SB.  Most Workshop decks are effectively pre-boarded vs Storm.

[personalbackfire]

Oath and Fish are soft to TPS, and TPS can/should be built for MUD, then I think you have a metagame predator.   Bob Tendrils is constrained by Oath. 

I don't think Bob Tendrils is anymore constrained to Oath then regular TPS is. To say that Bob Tendrils rely on Bob to win, so then Oath is naturally better against it is false. There are a few points I'd like to make. First, the only time that this is actually relevant is when the Oath player has Oath, but no Orchard, and you have Bob. At any other point in the game it doesn't matter. If the Oath player has Orchard it doesn't matter if you have bob, its actually probably better for you if you do because at-least your drawing some cards. I have never done the math, but I have heard numbers that the amount of time you open up with Bob and they have an oath, but no Orchard isn't that great. Also you can't leave out the fact that you could also have a force or duress for their oath even if they have it. An early Bob is a great card to have against oath, as usually it can lead to u drawing cards to end the game quickly. I'd go as far to say that bob is generally better then not having bob because at least it gives you a constant stream of cards and takes off storm every time it hits. Second, not all variants of Bob Tendrils actually rely on Bob to win the game. The version I have been playing wins the game quite fine without him, and lists closer to TPS w/ 3 or 4 Bobs have no problem of just storming out without him. Perhaps I am just biased though as of late.

[Smmenen]

Oath and Fish are soft to TPS, and TPS can/should be built for MUD, then I think you have a metagame predator.   Bob Tendrils is constrained by Oath. 

I don't think Bob Tendrils is anymore constrained to Oath then regular TPS is. To say that Bob Tendrils rely on Bob to win, so then Oath is naturally better against it is false.

Replace "Oath" in the second sentence with "TPS" and that's my argument.  In this article I documented a trend in Tezzeret away from Bob lists because of Oath.   I don't think that Bob Tendrils is a better metagame choice than TPS, properly built. 

[D_erutrot]

Oath and Fish are soft to TPS, and TPS can/should be built for MUD, then I think you have a metagame predator.   Bob Tendrils is constrained by Oath. 

I don't think Bob Tendrils is anymore constrained to Oath then regular TPS is. To say that Bob Tendrils rely on Bob to win, so then Oath is naturally better against it is false.

Replace "Oath" in the second sentence with "TPS" and that's my argument.  In this article I documented a trend in Tezzeret away from Bob lists because of Oath.   I don't think that Bob Tendrils is a better metagame choice than TPS, properly built. 

I don't think Bob Tendrils is anymore constrained to Oath then regular TPS is.
To say that Bob Tendrils rely on Bob to win, so then TPS is naturally better against it is false.

So, to clarify, since I'm a bit confused by the mental gymnastics you're making me do,
Your opinions are:
Oath is getting the upper hand on Dark Confidant Built whatevers (BobTendrils, and Tezz w/Bob)
TPS (properly tuned) is a better meta call than BobTendrils
Tezzeret has showed a decrease in Bob usage, you attribute this to Oath

Do I have this right?

Where does MUD and such fit on the Confidant usage in Tezz and Tendrils decks?
Or is it solely Oath that is affecting the change.

Is it me, or is it ironic, Dark Confidant is getting edged out by Oath of Druids.
Didn't Bob Maher pilot/create the Old extended version of Oath that probably inspired Vintage oath?

Or has the haze of time and stale pot smoke caused a faulty memory?

[Negator]

Nice article, thank you.

TPS decks should once again model themselves on the TPS decks of 2004 to combat the new Workshop menace of Lodestone Golem.

What would be the main differences in the maindeck and sideboard to fight those kind of decks? What was the particularity of the TPS in 2004?

Do you think it would be a solution to play Dark Confidant for example?

[Smmenen]

Nice article, thank you.

TPS decks should once again model themselves on the TPS decks of 2004 to combat the new Workshop menace of Lodestone Golem.

What would be the main differences in the maindeck and sideboard to fight those kind of decks? What was the particularity of the TPS in 2004?

Do you think it would be a solution to play Dark Confidant for example?

From my article on the perfect storm: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/16270_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Perfect_Storm.html

January, 2005
Kenny Öberg
The Perfect Storm

1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Memory Jar
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring
4 Dark Ritual
1 Demonic Tutor
4 Duress
1 Necropotence
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Ancestral Recall
4 Brainstorm
1 Cunning Wish
4 Force of Will
1 Mind's Desire
1 Mystical Tutor
2 Rebuild
1 Time Spiral
1 Time Walk
1 Timetwister
1 Tinker
1 Windfall
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Flooded Strand
3 Island
4 Polluted Delta
2 Swamp
1 Tolarian Academy
3 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island

Sideboard:
1 Brain Freeze
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Coffin Purge
1 Darksteel Colossus
2 Defense Grid
1 Echoing Truth
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
3 Hydroblast
1 Meditate
1 Rushing River
1 Stifle

Americans, by and large, refused to play TPS at the time. Most criticisms of the deck suggested that it was too slow, inconsistent, and fizzled too much. All three criticisms were tied to the fact that TPS was designed to be able to win under a Trinisphere. Mishra’s Workshop decks at the time commonly played turn 1 Mishra’s Workshop, Trinisphere. This is a brutal and often game-ending opening play. If you didn’t have a Force of Will in hand, how were you going to win? You needed a high land-count with many basic lands, a design feature which impeded a quick victory. Players trying to push the deck to win on turn 1 or turn 2 would be met with a frustrating Timetwister or Memory Jar that drew too much land, bounce, and filler like Cunning Wish, gift wrapping the game for the opponent.

Bingo.  

Look at this decklist:

* 15 lands
* tons of bounce (2 Rebuilds ande a Cunning Wish for H. Recall) all answers to Trinisphere
* slower spells like Time Spiral were featured

Yes, Brainstorm is restricted, but now we run Ponder, Scroll, and Imperial Seal in those slots.   

Gifts Ungiven hadn't seen print then.  It's better than Windfall. 

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

Now I may be called crazy for saying this, but I would rather face 4 Trinisphere+4SoR than 13 spheres(4 of which put you on a dirty clock)+X Sculpting Steel. The good thing about Trinisphere is that once it is down, you know what you're paying. It doesn't do anything about Rebuild and is the equivalent of only a SoR on your Hurkyl's. Not to mention Stax lists at the time had more or less no clock so you could literally just build up like 6 basics and explode all over their face. On the other hand this massive abundance of normal Spheres taxes your bounce spells at the cost of doing slightly less to your setup spells. My problem in recent TPS testing is that I have to burn bounce spells to keep myself from getting locked out/killed rather than using them to actually just finish the game, which forces me to use my hand sculpting spells to get bounce rather than getting business and then just hoping my hand will work out by itself. The strategy seems to work but it severely taxing mentally to slowroll against the modern Stax monstrosity where as I found it was pretty linear against Trinistax.

As for being the metagame predator, I don't think that TPS built to deal with Stax has a good enough percentage against the rest of the metagame to be worth running. Not to mention going head-to-head against the right sideboard can really tank you post-board. Pre-golem I would 100% agree with Smmenen though because you wouldn't really have to care about Stax and you could walk through the rest of the metagame.

[Smmenen]

I'd rather face 13 spheres than 8 Spheres with Trinisphere unrestricted, I believe.   At least with Lodestone Golem your moxen are free!  And under Thorn/2Sphere, mox only costs 1. 

I do not recommend Rebuild.  I think TPS should definitely be playing Hurkyl's Recall maindeck, and probably 2. 

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

I'd rather face 13 spheres than 8 Spheres with Trinisphere unrestricted, I believe.   At least with Lodestone Golem your moxen are free!  And under Thorn/2Sphere, mox only costs 1. 

I do not recommend Rebuild.  I think TPS should definitely be playing Hurkyl's Recall maindeck, and probably 2. 

Well my problem is that with up to 17 spheres it isn't uncommon for Stax to get 2 on the table which is already basically a Trinisphere for anything except moxen while also taxing my other spells.  I'd rather my bounce spells always cost 3 than have free moxen. >.>

I would not even think about running less than 2 Hurkyl's Recall maindeck if I expected Stax to have any reasonable showing. I also agree with you that Rebuild is pretty sub-par at the moment.

I still think that TPS is the favorite against Shops because game 1 is about who wins coin flip and post-board they can't really do much else against you while you have a few more bounce spells to bring in. However, I just don't like my game 2-3 against any other decks other than Ichorid or the unprepared. I'm willing to grant that with combo being pretty slim at the moment though that there may be enough unprepared sideboards to punch in a few tournament wins.

[Smmenen]

Most decks aren 't sbing for TPS right now.      I definitely think that Shops are TPS's hardest matchup, but it's not unwinnable.   Two maindeck Hurkyl's Recall, a maindeck Chain, and 14 lands maindeck should be enough to give you a chance game 1 and more hate comes in post board. 

[matt_sperling]

I think what it boils down to is that I, with Oath, can beat the average TPS player, while you, with TPS, can beat the average Oath player.

So who would win if you played Stephen?  I'm honestly curious what you think.  I would take the TPS deck if I had to play this matchup tomorrow and my life depended on it, but I don't think it wins in a landslide. 

"X beats Y as long as I play X and random scrub plays Y" doesn't give the rest of us much to work with.  That said, just to test the limits on this front, do you think you beat "average ANT player" with Oath?

[Evenpence]

Most decks aren 't sbing for TPS right now.      I definitely think that Shops are TPS's hardest matchup, but it's not unwinnable.   Two maindeck Hurkyl's Recall, a maindeck Chain, and 14 lands maindeck should be enough to give you a chance game 1 and more hate comes in post board. 

What are you taking out for these cards?  Didn't you also want to test See Beyond in TPS?  I can't imagine what you're doing to the deck if you're adding all this in.  I'm interested in your thoughts/list.

[darkeight]

Nice article, thank you.

Do you really think that such a list can make some results in a metagame like BOM  
( www.bazaar-of-moxen.com/ ) next weekend?

I tried to play with 3 see beyond, but I am not so satisfied, the ritual aspect of this card is always frustrating in TPS…  Have you made some further playtest ?

TPS  2010
Mana: : 29/Land 14
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring
1 Cabal Ritual
4 Dark Ritual
2 Flooded Strand
2 Island
4 Polluted Delta
2 Swamp
1 Tolarian Academy
3 Underground Sea


Disrupt:
4 Duress
4 Force of Will
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Chain of Vapor

Bomb/Draw:
1 Memory Jar
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Imperial Seal
1 Mind's Desire
1 Time Walk
1 Timetwister
1 Tinker
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Fact or Fiction

Kill:
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Inkwell Leviathan


Sideboard:
1 Yixlid Jailer
4 Leyline Of The Void
2 Bojuka Bog
1 Chain Of Vapor
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Rebuild
1 Slaughter Pact
2 Sadistic Sacrament
2 Massacre

[Killane]

I'd rather face 13 spheres than 8 Spheres with Trinisphere unrestricted, I believe.   At least with Lodestone Golem your moxen are free!  And under Thorn/2Sphere, mox only costs 1. 

The issue I have here is that Golem is also a 4 turn clock - so you can't just play out lands for 4 turns, bounce at EOT, and then go nuts, because turn 1 Lodestone kills you on turn 5.

Regarding Hurkyl's - if we do 2x in the maindeck what would you bring in from the board? 2 more hurkyl's? What about Bob - many people advocate him vs Shops and for good reason - do you think that Bob has a place in the TPS board? I've also heard some folks advocate splashing Green for Tarmogoyf using Misty Rainforest for the 5th Fetch and a Bayou-

on a small tangeant, some of the higher mana spells in TPS seem rather poor in the current Metagame. Bargain and Desire in particular- when the top 3 deck are MUD with 13 Spheres, Noble Fish with Wasteland_Strip_Null Rod, and Oath with a tendancy to give you Elephants in exchange for your land/mana,  plus spell pierce running everywhere,  resolving a 6 CMC UU or even BB sorcery speed spell can be less than easy. What do you think of builds that run Ad Nauseum and move the Tinker Robot to the Sideboard? at least Ad Nauseum is instant speed and 1 mana cheeper - and without a robot the CMCH of the deck is fairly low so it can draw a huge ton of cards.

Finally, I have always found the blue count for FoW to be somewhat low in TPS. Conventional wisdom notwithstanding 18 blue cards has left me with a nutty hand that has FoW but nohting to pitch to it on more than a few ocaisssions. Given that TPS will largely want counterspells to stop easly opposing plays and protect bombs, what do you think of Spell Pierce? - especially when most of the board opions for TPS right now involve non-blue cards which can put the blue count in serious Jeopardy. Alternatively, with Duress being of (comparitively) low value vs decks like Fish and MUD, what about spell pierce in that slot- it ups the blue count for FoW and has strong value in the matchups. The concern I have (aside form not wanting to put my beatiful 7th Ed Foil Duresses down lol) is the lack of the hihgly useful infomational side of Duress.

[quicksilvervii]

Most decks aren 't sbing for TPS right now.      I definitely think that Shops are TPS's hardest matchup, but it's not unwinnable.   Two maindeck Hurkyl's Recall, a maindeck Chain, and 14 lands maindeck should be enough to give you a chance game 1 and more hate comes in post board. 

Is this what you are advocating in today's meta?
I am assuming that 1 of the Hurkyl's would replace rebuild, but what would you cut for #2 and 2 more lands without hurting your other matchups?