Here's the link to Tristan Shaun Gregson and LSV's most recent Magic TV episode:
http://strategy.channelfireball.com/videos/magic-tv-show-51-vintage-championship/It elicited a pretty strong response from me, and I have decided to post it here (as well as on ChannelFireball)
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Seems like this boils down to two issues:
I. Card availability/cost/reprint policy
II. Support/location for Vintage Champs
The card availability is static and the reprint policy guarantees that. Wizards can seemingly do one of two things - have the Vintage Champs tournament on MODO - where they have allowed themselves a loophole to 'print' digital cards through the reprint policy, or have something like expiring proxies - which would, in theory, only last for a certain time period (6 months, a year, I'm not sure...) before they could no longer be used.
I - MODO
I don't play MODO and I almost strictly play Vintage at this point. If Vintage Champs were switched to a MODO tournament, and there was a means for the committed Vintage players to re-obtain power/staples for little cost, I could see it being popular. Time zones would be tough (most of the active Vintage community in Europe is six hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time), but I would imagine that the event would have much better support than the current one does. People manage to play MODO PTQ's, I could see them getting up early/staying up late to participate in a format that they love.
Given what some of the Legacy staples go for on MODO, I have a tough time seeing many people commit to this if cost is as significant an entry barrier as it would likely be. I have a collection that is worth more than $8,000 right now and I have zero interest in converting it into something digital, or spending additional money to pick up all the things that I would need in order to play what I want to play. I have Drains, duals, Forces, Workshops, black bordered power and virtually every staple that I need. Why am I going to buy that all over again?
Finally, part of the joy of an event is actually being at the event. I want to have an opponent sitting across from me, and I want to interact with him over the course of the match. I could play a MMORPG if I wanted to. I don't, because the social aspect of the tournament has real value and I'm not going to sacrifice that.
II - Expiring proxies
Expiring proxies offer a temporary solution to the problem of card availability. They would affect the value of the originals - though the extent to which they would affect the value is incalculable. If your Mox Pearl is the same as mine for 6 months, and you opened yours as a, functionally, mythic token, how much is yours worth? And what does it do to mine? I don't know, and I would have a tough time accepting any argument that dealt with this question with certitude.
Wizards could turn it into a continuous marketing ploy that would seem to make good money for pack sales. It would, however, also support a secondary market that Wizards does not profit from. Dealers, albeit online dealers such as SCG, ChannelFireball, etc., or small local dealers, would benefit tremendously. If expiring proxies were printed, I could see a kind of tide swell effect, where many of the staples of the format (that have already gone up because of Legacy) go up a little more. If you were intent on playing Noble Fish, and there is a 10% increase in demand, those Wastelands that were going to run you $23 per are now going to run you more than that. What do they go to? $25? $30? $35? If Force of Will can fluctuate between $35-$50, is it really such an alien concept to see Wasteland mirror it in this regard?
If the cards were more readily available Vintage Champs would probably have netted more players. The 15 proxy standard that started in the U.S. and has not found its way to Europe has certainly hurt American Vintage. Still, if you were at Gencon and you had the opportunity to essentially port the majority of your Legacy deck over to Vintage via expiring proxies, I would imagine that you would, all things being equal.
III - What Does It All Mean?
Between the two options, I would imagine that Wizards would go the MODO route, if they went one at all. MODO is tremendously popular, and there is a market for Vintage that Wizards has a difficult time exploiting. The 'printing' of digital cards would certainly be profitable, though, once again, the extent of the popularity is difficult to gauge. Expiring proxies may boost pack sales of the current sets (an 'official proxy' Black Lotus is the closest thing that most of us will ever come to in terms of opening a Black Lotus), but I find it tough to accept that Wizards would ever truly promote this, as I believe that they're aware that there is a finite amount of Magic that even the most devoted aficionado would play. If they are given the opportunity of selling you packs of a current set (a set that you need to play your Standard/Extended/Block deck) or using those packs to insert cards that push you to a secondary market that does not involve them, I can't see how the smart fiscal decision for Wizards is to push players to secondary dealers and sacrifice sales on their end.
I love Vintage, but I think it's pretty much going to stay where it's at. It will be heavily reliant upon T/O's and stores that have chosen to support the format. While a tier one 15 proxy Vintage deck may run you less than your Legacy (or Mythic Standard) deck, it's still a fair amount of money to drop on a format that isn't 'competitive'.
If Champs gets upgraded, I don't know that it would actually be for the better. I think, after all this typing, that the best option is the status quo. It sucks that the format that I love is never going to have the massive turnout that I would love to see, but it's better than watching many of the alternatives...
