Waterbury Top 16 Decklists and Metagame Breakdown

[Smmenen]

Ray will send me the final standings.   Then I can get these decklists in the proper order, and also do some metagame analysis, including looking at results by archetype ala Jared Sylva.  

Here are the decks that I know were in thre top 16:

1st Place: Joseph Brown

1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
4 Lodestone Golem
4 Sphere of Resistance
4 Thorn of Amethyst
4 Tangle Wire
4 Chalice of the Void
3 Smokestack
3 Null Rod
2 Karn, Silver Golem
2 Duplicant
2 Crucible of Worlds
1 Trinisphere

4 Mishra's Workshop
4 Ancient Tomb
4 Wasteland
2 Mishra's Factory
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Strip Mine
1 Tolarian Academy

Sideboard:
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Maze of Ith
3 Triskelion
2 Powder Keg

2nd Place: Ashok Chitturi
4 Duress
4 Thoughtseize
4 Ad Nauseam
4 Dark Ritual
3 Cabal Ritual
3 Tendrils of Agony
3 Chain of Vapor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Imperial Seal
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Polluted Delta
4 Chrome Mox
1 Verdant Catacombs
1 Bayou
1 Tropical Island
3 Underground Sea
2 Swamp
1 Island
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring

Sideboard:
 4 Xantid Swarm
3 Dark Confidant
3 Yixlid Jailer
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Tormod's Crypt
1 Slaughter Pact

3rd Place: Brian DeMars

4 Dark Confidant
4 Lotus Cobra
1 Inkwell Leviathan
3 Jace the Mind Sculptor
3 Nature's Claim
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Time Walk
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Tinker
1 Necropotence
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Pierce
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Verdant Catacombs
3 Polluted Delta
2 Tropical Island
2 Underground Sea
1 Bayou
1 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl

Sideboard:
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Perish
3 Duress
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Doom Blade
1 Darkblast
2 Relic of Progenitus

4th Place: Willie Munch

3 Nature's Claim
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
2 Ichorid
4 Bloodhgast
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Bridge from Below
4 Narcomoeba
4 Serum Powder
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Darkblast
2 Petrified Field
2 City of Brass
2 Dread Return
3 Leyline of the Void
4 Undiscovered Paradise
2 Golgari Thug
2 Dakmor Salvage
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
1 Ancestral Recall

Sideboard:
2 Wispmare
2 City of Brass
4 Chain of Vapor
3 Pithing Needle
1 Nature's Claim
1 Ichorid
1 Darkblast
1 Leyline of the Void

5th-8th:

Mark Hornung

2 Petrified Field
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Bloodghast
4 Narcomoeba
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
4 Stinkweed Imp
2 Dakmor Salvage
2 City of Brass
4 Undiscovered Paradise
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
2 Nature’s Claim
1 Golgari Thug
4 Cabal Therapy
2 Dread Return
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Bridge from Below
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
2 Ichorid
4 Serum Powder
1 Darkblast

SB
4 Leyline of the Void
4 Chain of Vapor
2 Nature's Claim
1 Ichorid
1 Serenity
2 Firestorm
1 City of Brass

Daniel Gacioch

4 Dark Confidant
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Pierce
2 Mana Drain
1 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
1 Tinker
1 Inkwell Leviathan
1 Sensei's Divining
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Mana Crypt
1 Sol Ring
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Black Lotus
1 Gifts Ungiven
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Tropical Island
2 Volcanic Island
3 Underground Sea
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Flooded Strand
2 Island
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Voltaic Key
1 Time Vault
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
2 Nature's Claim
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Hurkyl's Recall

Sideboard:
2 Yixlid Jailer
2 Perish
1 Darkblast
2 Ravenous Trap
1 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Forest
2 Nature's Claim

Nick Detwiler
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
4 Sphere of Resistance
2 Thorn of Amethuyst
3 Crucible of Worlds
4 Tangle Wire
4 Serum Powder
1 Trinisphere
4 Lodestone Golem
4 Smokestack
3 Karn, Silver Golem
2 Duplicant
1 Strip Mine
1 Tolarian Academy
3 Rishadan Port
4 Ancient Tomb
4 Mishra's Workshop
4 Wasteland

Sideboard:
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Pithing Needle
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Ghost Quarter
4 Maze of Ith

Dan Cunningham

1 Snow-Covered Island
3 Island
1 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
4 Tundra
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Strip Mine
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Sol Ring
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mana Crypt
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Aether Spellbomb
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Pithing Needle
2 Auriok Salvagers
4 Trinket Mage
1 Aven Mindcensor
2 Jace, The Mind Sculptor
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Thirst For Knowledge
1 Echoing Truth
1 Brainstorm
1 Misdirection
4 Force of Will
3 Spell Pierce
1 Swords to Plowshares
1 Balance
4 Mana Drain
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall

Sideboard:
1 Pithing Needle
2 Tormod's Crypt
1 Sower of Temptation
2 Aven Mindcensor
2 Honor the Fallen
1 Swords to Plowshares
3 Energy Flux
1 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Seal of Cleansing

9-16th Place:

Rich Meyst

4 Goblin Welder
2 Gorilla Shaman
4 Lodestone Golem
3 Solemn Simulacrum
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Thorn of Amethyst
4 Tangle Wire
3 Null Rod
1 Trinisphere
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mishra's Workshop
4 Wasteland
4 Mountain
2 Barbarian Ring
1 Strip Mine
1 Tolarian Academy
2 Ancient Tomb
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring

Sideboard:
1 Null Rod
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Ingot Chewer
3 Shattering Spree
4 Greater Gargadon
3 Red Elemental Blast

Paul Mastriano

1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Black Lotus
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
1 Lotus Petal
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Plains
1 Island
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Strip Mine
3 Underground Sea
2 Tundra
4 Flooded Strand
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Vendillion Clique
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Time Walk
1 Inkwell Leviathan
1 Tinker
4 Force of Will
2 Mana Drain
1 Thoughtseize
2 Spell Pierce
1 Darkblast
1 Diabolic Edict
1 Swords to Plowshares
2 Disenchant
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Ponder
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Thirst For Knowledge
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Dark Confidant

Sideboard:
2 Thoughtseize
2 Disenchant
1 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Rebuild
1 Relic of Progenitus
4 Yixlid Jailer
2 Swords to Plowshares
2 Pithing Needle

Kevin Cron

4 Dark Confidant
4 Lotus Cobra
1 Inkwell Leviathan
3 Jace the Mind Sculptor
3 Nature's Claim
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Time Walk
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Tinker
1 Necropotence
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Pierce
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Verdant Catacombs
3 Polluted Delta
2 Tropical Island
2 Underground Sea
1 Bayou
1 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl

Sideboard:
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Perish
3 Duress
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Doom Blade
1 Darkblast
2 Relic of Progenitus

Craig Dupre
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Sol Ring
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Ruby
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Sol Ring
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
4 Dark Confidant
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampriic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
1 Inkwell Leviathan
4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Mana Drain
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Tinker
3 Trygon Predator
3 Spell Pierce
2 Nature's Claim
1 Darkblast
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Flooded Strand
1 Forest
1 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Polluted Delta
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Tolarian Academy
2 Tropical Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island

Sideboard:
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Nature's Claim
1 Massacre
1 Pithing Needle
1 Pyroblast
2 Red Elemental Blast
2 Sower of Temptation
2 Yixlid Jailer

Matt Elias

2 Preordain
3 Duress
2 Island
2 Swamp
4 Force of Will
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Necropotence
1 Ponder
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Brainstorm
1 Chain of Vapor
4 Polluted Delta
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Dark Confidant
2 Tendrils of Agony
1 Mind's Desire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Lotus Petal
1 Cabal Ritual
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Timetwister
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Vault
3 Underground Sea
1 Rebuild
4 Dark Ritual
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Vampiric Tutor
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Misty Rainforest

Sideboard
1 Duress
1 Inkwell Leviathan
1 Echoing Truth
2 Yixlid Jailer
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Tundra
1 Tinker
3 Serenity

John Longo

3 Underground Sea
2 Tropical island
2 Island
2 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mana Crypt
4 Force of Will
2 Misdirection
4 Mana Drain
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Tinker
1 Sphinx of the Steel Wind
1 Tezzeret the Seeker
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Time Walk
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
2 Preordain
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Merchant Scroll
3 Night's Whisper
1 Thirst For Knowledge
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Gifts Ungiven

Sideboard:
4 Yixlid Jailer
1 Relic of Progenitus
2 Mindbreak Trap
2 Nature's Claim
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Trygon Predator
1 Infest
1 Snuff Out

Bill Copes
4 Force of Will
3 Preordain
2 Hurkyls Recall
1 Jace, The Mindsculptor
1 Time Walk
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Ponder
1 Brainstorm
1 Rebuild
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Mind’s Desire
1 Time Twister
1 Gifts Ungiven

4 Dark Confidant
4 Dark Ritual
2 Tendrils of Agony
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
1 Cabal Ritual

4 Polluted Delta
3 Underground Sea
2 Island
2 Swamp
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Tolarian Academy

1 Sensei’s Divining Top
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus

Sideboard
4 Yixlid Jailer
4 Thoughtsieze
2 Ravenous Trap
1 Sadistic Sacrement
1 Hurkyls Recall
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Island
1 Perish

Jeremiah Rudolph

1 Flooded Strand
2 Misty Rainforest
3 Polluted Delta
1 Tolarian Academy
3 Underground Sea
3 Volcanic Island
1 Island
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Goblin Welder
1 Sphinx of the Steel Wind
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Pearl
2 Misdirection
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
1 Thirst For Knowledge
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mox Jet
1 Tinker
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Emerald
2 Mana Drain
4 Pyroblast
2 Jace, The Mind Sculptor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Ponder
1 Rolling Earthquake
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Memory Jar
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Mindslaver

Sideboard:
2 Rolling Earthquake
1 Ravenous Trap
2 Yixlid Jailer
3 Shattering Spree
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Rebuild
1 Tormod's Crypt

Metagame breakdown forthcoming.   Anyone want to make guesses about the % of Dredge or Shops in the field?  

[voltron00x]

Coming in we were estimating Dredge at 8-10% and Shops at 15-18%.  Some people said they felt Shops were "everywhere" but I was often playing rounds where I had to crane my neck to see any, so I couldn't really get a feel for it.  I was often seeing Zombies, though.

[Cunningbeaver]

I played all 6 rounds after my bye round and played shops 5 times.  Unfortunately for me they were "everywhere".

[Prospero]

My matches were:

R1: Bye
R2: MUD (2-0)
R3: Noble Fish (0-2)
R4: TPS (2-0)
R5: Dark Times (2-0)
R6: Bomberman (2-0)
R7: ANT (Draw)
R8: Control Slaver (2-1)
R9: Dredge (0-2)

I was told that my top 8 opponent was light on his Chain/Claim package, and thus looked hard for a hand that had Leyline in it.  I saw 32 cards in my opening hands for game 2 and saw 0 Leylines.  I didn't draw my hate, and thus didn't get there.  

I'm ok with the loss, as I didn't misplay and played fairly well over the course of the day.  

I also felt like there were a lot of Shops and Dredge.  I don't recall seeing much of Owen's Jace Control list from Champs, which surprised me a little.  I also felt like there was more combo there than I had thought there would be.

And Steve, for the love of God, please stop misspelling my name.  There's only one L in Detwiler.  In every reference to me in your SCG articles, and every time you have used my last name on TMD you have spelled it incorrectly.  If I can remember Menendian, you can remember Detwiler.

EDIT: Steve, my sideboard is missing a Pithing Needle (it is currently 14 cards.)

[The Atog Lord]

Steve, thank you for posting these. Very interesting results indeed.

[Bill Copes]

I don't get any love.

Round 1 - Prepaid Bye
Round 2 - 2-0 v. RG Beats
Round 3 - 2-1 v. Oath (Might have been 2-0?)
Round 4 - 2-1 v. Ichorid
Round 5 - 1-2 v. Bob Tendrils
Round 6 - 2-1 v. Noble Fish
Round 7 - ID
Top 16 - 1-2 v. Ichorid

4 Force of Will
3 Preordain
2 Hurkyls Recall
1 Jace, The Mindsculptor
1 Time Walk
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Ponder
1 Brainstorm
1 Rebuild
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Mind’s Desire
1 Time Twister
1 Gifts Ungiven

4 Dark Confidant
4 Dark Ritual
2 Tendrils of Agony
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
1 Cabal Ritual

4 Polluted Delta
3 Underground Sea
2 Island
2 Swamp
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Tolarian Academy

1 Sensei’s Divining Top
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus

Sideboard
4 Yixlid Jailer
4 Thoughtsieze
2 Ravenous Trap
1 Sadistic Sacrement
1 Hurkyls Recall
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Island
1 Perish

[Sextiger]

The other top 4 decklist was Brassman Dredge played by Willie Munch, I am pretty sure the maindeck may have been identical and the SB was 3-4 cards different. 

[toor]

My matches were:

R1: Bye
R2: MUD (2-0)
R3: Noble Fish (0-2)
R4: TPS (2-0)
R5: Dark Times (2-0)
R6: Bomberman (2-0)
R7: ANT (Draw)
R8: Control Slaver (2-1)
R9: Dredge (0-2)

I was told that my top 8 opponent was light on his Chain/Claim package, and thus looked hard for a hand that had Leyline in it.  I saw 32 cards in my opening hands for game 2 and saw 0 Leylines.  I didn't draw my hate, and thus didn't get there.  

I'm ok with the loss, as I didn't misplay and played fairly well over the course of the day.  

I also felt like there were a lot of Shops and Dredge.  I don't recall seeing much of Owen's Jace Control list from Champs, which surprised me a little.  I also felt like there was more combo there than I had thought there would be.

And Steve, for the love of God, please stop misspelling my name.  There's only one L in Detwiler.  In every reference to me in your SCG articles, and every time you have used my last name on TMD you have spelled it incorrectly.  If I can remember Menendian, you can remember Detwiler.

EDIT: Steve, my sideboard is missing a Pithing Needle (it is currently 14 cards.)

I thought you mulliganing your opening 7 game 2 against dredge was a mistake but I could be wrong.

On the Play - 2 Serum Powder, Academy, Sphere, Needle, Wasteland, Mox Sapphire.

[Rico Suave]

My matches were:

R1: Bye
R2: MUD (2-0)
R3: Noble Fish (0-2)
R4: TPS (2-0)
R5: Dark Times (2-0)
R6: Bomberman (2-0)
R7: ANT (Draw)
R8: Control Slaver (2-1)
R9: Dredge (0-2)

I was told that my top 8 opponent was light on his Chain/Claim package, and thus looked hard for a hand that had Leyline in it.  I saw 32 cards in my opening hands for game 2 and saw 0 Leylines.  I didn't draw my hate, and thus didn't get there.  

I'm ok with the loss, as I didn't misplay and played fairly well over the course of the day.  

I also felt like there were a lot of Shops and Dredge.  I don't recall seeing much of Owen's Jace Control list from Champs, which surprised me a little.  I also felt like there was more combo there than I had thought there would be.

And Steve, for the love of God, please stop misspelling my name.  There's only one L in Detwiler.  In every reference to me in your SCG articles, and every time you have used my last name on TMD you have spelled it incorrectly.  If I can remember Menendian, you can remember Detwiler.

EDIT: Steve, my sideboard is missing a Pithing Needle (it is currently 14 cards.)

I thought you mulliganing your opening 7 game 2 against dredge was a mistake but I could be wrong.

On the Play - 2 Serum Powder, Academy, Sphere, Needle, Wasteland, Mox Sapphire.

When the opponent goes:

"Draw, go to my discard?" 

You will feel the pain. 

[Womba]

My matches were:

R1: Bye
R2: MUD (2-0)
R3: Noble Fish (0-2)
R4: TPS (2-0)
R5: Dark Times (2-0)
R6: Bomberman (2-0)
R7: ANT (Draw)
R8: Control Slaver (2-1)
R9: Dredge (0-2)

I was told that my top 8 opponent was light on his Chain/Claim package, and thus looked hard for a hand that had Leyline in it.  I saw 32 cards in my opening hands for game 2 and saw 0 Leylines.  I didn't draw my hate, and thus didn't get there. 

I'm ok with the loss, as I didn't misplay and played fairly well over the course of the day. 

I also felt like there were a lot of Shops and Dredge.  I don't recall seeing much of Owen's Jace Control list from Champs, which surprised me a little.  I also felt like there was more combo there than I had thought there would be.

And Steve, for the love of God, please stop misspelling my name.  There's only one L in Detwiler.  In every reference to me in your SCG articles, and every time you have used my last name on TMD you have spelled it incorrectly.  If I can remember Menendian, you can remember Detwiler.

EDIT: Steve, my sideboard is missing a Pithing Needle (it is currently 14 cards.)

I thought you mulliganing your opening 7 game 2 against dredge was a mistake but I could be wrong.

On the Play - 2 Serum Powder, Academy, Sphere, Needle, Wasteland, Mox Sapphire.

When the opponent goes:

"Draw, go to my discard?" 

You will feel the pain. 

Lucas, I am pretty sure I said the exact same thing lol......

[Prospero]

A few important points:

1.  He did indeed keep his opening 7.  I run no Tormod's Crypts or Relic of Progentus in my sideboard - as such I must have a clock, or I will lose to even slow dredging.

2.  The hand had no pressure.

3.  The hand was living off the top of my deck, something I try to do as little as possible.

There are basically two different kinds of hands against Dredge, post board, that are keep-able for an Espresso Stax pilot.  The first hand is a hand that has Leyline of the Void with sufficient protection (Sphere, Thorn, Chalice, Wasteland, Ghost Quarter, and the mana to make the necessary plays.)  The second hand is the Pithing Needle hand, which I would only keep if I have significant pressure in the form of early, cast-able, Lodestones and Karns.  If I keep the Pithing Needle hand, with no pressure, I am vulnerable to any moderately fast start by the Dredge pilot.  I've tested the match more than I care to mention, and I'm something like 85% favorite to win post board games, but it was the luck of the draw and I went down.  I'm fine with it.

[Troy_Costisick]

Stephen, are you sure you got those decklists right?  I thought Workshop decks were terrible and couldn't ever win 100+ man tournaments.

[toor]

Mark I know we had this discussion but I thought it was interesting (and have since thought about it) so here are my arguments for keeping.

1. On the play with 7 you should have to keep before he does (unless he kept out of order which I don't recall) so you don't know there is a high probability he keeps less then initial six.

1b. If he does keep his initial 7 then his hand is pretty good anyways so I am no convinced a Leyline no Disruption hand is any better then this (which is what you end up having to go for). You often won't have pressure after for specific hate anyways. So in my mind the question is whats better.

The above or.. A leyline hand with pressure. I firmly believe in the former since your mana is set up and it requires your opponent to play correctly. Furthermore with only 7 real threats it seems likely that even if you hit a Leyline you might not have pressure or the mana to play dudes.

1c. Your opponent was bad/new. I believe he would not have slow dredged. He would of played a Bazaar and then tried to find answers to needle. Playing your opponent is as much as part of this game as anything else.

[policehq]

Stephen, are you sure you got those decklists right?  I thought Workshop decks were terrible and couldn't ever win 100+ man tournaments.

I understand what you're doing, but to me, it seems like European events for years have disproven this assertion of his. I have a theory that the decision trees are simpler with Workshop than with control or Null Rod, and it is less vulnerable than Dredge, so that's why it produces more success for players.*

* Note - this doesn't have to be offensive to any specific Workshop pilot for it to be true.

[Ten-Ten]

Bomberman list is missing 4 cards i believe and tolarian academy and stripmine are listed twice...

[Tobi]

Does anyone know the missing 2 names and lists of the top 8?

Yet we have --> http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1320

[Prospero]

Does anyone know the missing 2 names and lists of the top 8?

Yet we have --> http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1320

You're missing Jeremiah Rudolph, who was on a Control Slaver-ish blue build and Willie Munch who was on Dredge.  Jeremiah was 9th-16th, Munch was 4th.

[Smmenen]

i have completed the metagame breakdown. I'll post the remaining top 16 decklists and that breakdown this weekend.

[Smmenen]

The rest of the top 16 decklists have been posted. 

Also, here is the metagame breakdown, courtesy of Brian DeMars notations on the ride home. 

Blue Time Vault decks: 29.6% of the field

Key-Vault (not Dredge) aka Jace or Tez Control: 26 (20.8% of the field)
Oath: 11 (8.8% of the field)

Workshop: 29 (23.2% of the field)

Storm: 17 (13.6%)

Dredge: 16 (12.8%)

Blue Based Aggro Control (aka Fish): 13

Bomberman/UW Control (not Key Vault): 4

Mono blue control/Faeries: 2
Dark Times: 3
Steel City Vault: 2
Misc: 2
Belcher: 1
Beats: 3

I have all of the decklists in case anyone has any questions. 

[Prospero]

@Lucas

1.  Yes, I did have to keep before he did, and thus I did not know that he was keeping his seven.  I think you are underestimating the function of Serum Powder in the deck.  To respond:

I - Serum Powder is in the deck almost exclusively to find the dense hands that hammer opponents who are vulnerable to silver bullets.  If I see an opener with two Serum Powders, no Leyline, no Lodestone/Karn, I am happy to Powder it away, because it means that the probability of having those cards is higher with my next seven.

II - Look at that hand further and you will see that there was nothing that was crucial that I was removing.  I wasn't losing a Workshop, and while I did lose a Needle and a Waste, I had 7 more waste effects post board (3 Ghost Quarter, 3 Wasteland, 1 Strip Mine).  

III - I could not have possibly known that I was going to mull all the way to three.  I am not going to do the math, but consider that I removed some chaff, still had my four Leylines and had a seven card hand with 53 cards left in my deck to look at.  Also consider that all future hands would have the beneift of those seven cards being removed - and I would thus be able to count the math as being in my favor a little more than it had been previously.  The odds were with me.  

2.  The definition of 'pressure' is exceptionally important here.  Consider that when an opposing Dredge player is facing down a Leyline every sphere effect is pressure (as it demands another land), every Waste/Port/GQ is pressure, as it demands more land, every Crucible is potentially devastating, as it may very well lock them out, in fact, if you hit a hand that has Needle/creature or Leyline, virtually everything in the deck is either pressure or the mana to cast it.  

Needle alone will not win me the game, as it does not stop his dredging.  Leyline is something that he must answer in order to win the game.  

3.  While my opponent in this match was bad/new the impetus is on me to play tight and keep hands that are capable of beating him, even if he does surprise me with play that is tighter than I would expect from him given his play in the first game.

What this really comes down to, for me, is this: we can look at my hand of seven now, knowing that I mulled to three, knowing that my opponent wasn't a titan of the format, and say that it would have been a good keep.  We can say this because I didn't hit the hand that I needed in order to beat him after I mulliganed all those other hands.  While doing this we would be ignoring the math that backs me up, and using information that I did not, and could not, have at the time.  

I'm all for intellectual exercises, but given that there's probably only one or two people in the world who have played more games with Espresso Stax than I have, I am comfortable relying on prior experience with the deck.  The last time I played in a tournament before this was at Blue Bell in June.  When I was there I played Chas Hinkle, who was on Dredge.  I lost my game one after getting pounded by Ichorids.  Game two I mulled and mulled until I hit my hand of four.  My hand?  Leyline, Workshop, Chalice, Wasteland.

If I had hit that hand against my top 8 opponent I would have looked like a hero.  I didn't and so people wonder if it was the wrong keep.  I really am comfortable in my decision making process here.  If you believe that I am incorrect I would encourage you to actively play the hand that you noted against a Dredge pilot who kept a hand with turn one Bazaar and Grave-Troll.  Please also keep in mind that he had lands, and pitched a Nature's Claim at one point during the game.

Maybe you win more than 50% of those games, but keep in mind that a loss in that game is your elimination from the event.  Density matters, and the hand was not dense enough for my liking.

[Dr. Sylvan]

Surprise data from Phil!

A total of 128 unrestricted and 36 restricted cardnames appeared at least once.

The only unrestricted nonlands played by over half the field were Force of Will, Hurkyl's Recall, and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. The lands were Island, Misty Rainforest, and Underground Sea.

The most-run sideboard-only card was Yixlid Jailer. Leyline of the Void would tie if one deck hadn't run it main. Hurkyl's Recall and Nature's Claim were the cards which appeared conspicuously often in both maindeck and sideboard.


Number of T16 decks using a card (SB use noted)

Mox Jet Mox Sapphire Black Lotus Mox Emerald Mox Pearl Mox Ruby Ancestral Recall Mana Crypt Sol Ring Brainstorm Island Tolarian Academy Demonic Tutor Force of Will Hurkyl's Recall Jace, the Mind Sculptor Misty Rainforest Underground Sea Vampiric Tutor Yawgmoth's Will Time Walk Dark Confidant Leyline of the Void Merchant Scroll Mystical Tutor Polluted Delta Ponder Tinker Yixlid Jailer Darkblast Lotus Petal Mana Vault Nature's Claim Relic of Progenitus Time Vault Voltaic Key Flooded Strand Inkwell Leviathan Mana Drain Sensei's Divining Top Spell Pierce Tropical Island Chain of Vapor Necropotence Pithing Needle Strip Mine Swamp Duress Forest Gifts Ungiven Library of Alexandria Mindbreak Trap Perish Rebuild Tendrils of Agony Thirst For Knowledge Tormod's Crypt Ancient Tomb Bayou Cabal Ritual Chalice of the Void Dark Ritual Fact or Fiction Lodestone Golem Misdirection Mishra's Workshop Preordain Pyroblast Ravenous Trap Red Elemental Blast Serum Powder Tangle Wire Thorn of Amethyst Thoughtseize Trinisphere Tundra Verdant Catacombs Volcanic Island Wasteland Bazaar of Baghdad Bloodghast Bridge from Below Cabal Therapy City of Brass Crucible of Worlds Dakmor Salvage Disenchant Doom Blade Dread Return Duplicant Echoing Truth Flame-Kin Zealot Ghost Quarter Goblin Welder Golgari Grave-Troll Golgari Thug Ichorid Iona, Shield of Emeria Karn, Silver Golem Lotus Cobra Maze of Ith Mind’s Desire Narcomoeba Null Rod Petrified Field Plains Rolling Earthquake Scalding Tarn Serenity Shattering Spree Smokestack Snow-Covered Island Sower of Temptation Sphere of Resistance Sphinx of the Steel Wind Stinkweed Imp Swords to Plowshares Timetwister Trygon Predator Undiscovered Paradise Ad Nauseam Aether Spellbomb Auriok Salvagers Aven Mindcensor Balance Barbarian Ring Chrome Mox Demonic Consultation Diabolic Edict Energy Flux Engineered Explosives Ethersworn Canonist Firestorm Gorilla Shaman Greater Gargadon Honor the Fallen Imperial Seal Infest Ingot Chewer Leyline of Sanctity Lightning Bolt Magus of the Moon Massacre Memory Jar Mindslaver Mishra's Factory Mountain Night's Whisper Powder Keg Rishadan Port Sadistic Sacrement Seal of Cleansing Sensei’s Divining Top Slaughter Pact Snuff Out Solemn Simulacrum Tezzeret the Seeker Trinket Mage Triskelion Vendillion Clique Wispmare Xantid Swarm Yawgmoth’s Bargain

14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

(4 SB+main, 1 SB only) (1 SB+main, 7 SB only) (all SB) (1 SB+main, 3 SB only) (4 SB+main, 1 SB only) (all SB) (1 SB+main, 2 SB only) (1 SB+main, 4 SB only) (1 SB+main, 2 SB only) (all SB) (all SB) (2 SB only) (all SB) (1 SB only) (3 SB only) (1 SB+main, 2 SB only) (1 SB+main, 1 SB only) (all SB) (1 SB only) (1 SB only) (2 SB+main) (1 SB only) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (2 SB+main) (1 SB only) (1 SB+main) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB) (all SB)

[Dr. Sylvan]

# Copies of Unrestricted Cards in T16
(Restricted cards can be determined from how many decks they appeared in, see above)

Force of Will Leyline of the Void Dark Confidant Underground Sea Jace, the Mind Sculptor Polluted Delta Yixlid Jailer Misty Rainforest Nature's Claim Spell Pierce Island Hurkyl's Recall Mana Drain Chain of Vapor Duress Flooded Strand Relic of Progenitus Chalice of the Void Dark Ritual Lodestone Golem Mishra's Workshop Serum Powder Tangle Wire Wasteland Pithing Needle Thoughtseize Tropical Island Ancient Tomb Darkblast Thorn of Amethyst Bazaar of Baghdad Bloodghast Bridge from Below Cabal Therapy Golgari Grave-Troll Lotus Cobra Mindbreak Trap Narcomoeba Red Elemental Blast Sphere of Resistance Stinkweed Imp Swamp Tendrils of Agony Tundra Undiscovered Paradise City of Brass Maze of Ith Null Rod Perish Preordain Smokestack Tormod's Crypt Verdant Catacombs Voltaic Key Crucible of Worlds Ichorid Inkwell Leviathan Pyroblast Sensei's Divining Top Shattering Spree Volcanic Island Cabal Ritual Ghost Quarter Goblin Welder Karn, Silver Golem Misdirection Ravenous Trap Swords to Plowshares Trygon Predator Ad Nauseam Chrome Mox Dakmor Salvage Disenchant Dread Return Duplicant Forest Greater Gargadon Leyline of Sanctity Lightning Bolt Magus of the Moon Mountain Petrified Field Rebuild Serenity Trinket Mage Xantid Swarm Aven Mindcensor Bayou Energy Flux Golgari Thug Night's Whisper Rishadan Port Rolling Earthquake Solemn Simulacrum Sower of Temptation Triskelion Auriok Salvagers Barbarian Ring Doom Blade Echoing Truth Firestorm Flame-Kin Zealot Gorilla Shaman Honor the Fallen Ingot Chewer Iona, Shield of Emeria Mishra's Factory Nature’s Claim Plains Powder Keg Scalding Tarn Seal of Cleansing Snow-Covered Island Sphinx of the Steel Wind Wispmare Aether Spellbomb Diabolic Edict Engineered Explosives Ethersworn Canonist Infest Massacre Mindslaver Sadistic Sacrement Sensei’s Divining Top Slaughter Pact Snuff Out Tezzeret the Seeker Vendillion Clique

40 32 31 28 24 24 23 22 22 20 18 17 16 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

[Troy_Costisick]

Wow!  Only one Tezzeret out of 16 decks!  Can we even call them Tez decks anymore?

[God_Campbell]

Sadly they have become Jace/Vault decks now.

[Metman]

I am astonished how quickly Jace has made it into the decks of vintage players.  It's now up there above Island and Mana Drain.