Is Preordain better than Ponder?

[Meddling Mike]

Ponder- We have Preordain which is better.

While discussing possible unrestrictions I saw Twaun suggest that Preordain is a superior card to Ponder despite the fact that Ponder is on the restricted list and they have a very similar effect and are both 1cc sorceries. I had heard this suggestion made by others, but I wanted to take some time to explore this in more detail.

The Pros of Ponder:
1. You see a minimum of 3 cards and in the event that you do not find the card you are looking for you have a (No. of cards remaining in library - 3)/(No. of cards remaining in library) chance of seeing a new 4th card. Preordain is only capable of showing you 3 cards.

The Pros of Preordain:
1. If ponder finds one desirable card and two blanks, it obligates the caster to keep the two blanks in order to draw the desirable card. If during the scry 2 of a Preordain they find blanks the caster can avoid drawing them by putting them on the bottom. This disadvantage is nullified by a shuffle effect.
2. Preordain moves blanks to the bottom of the library rather than shuffling like ponder, thus granting some assurance that the blanks will not be drawn again. Whenever somebody casts ponder there is a 3/(No. of cards remaining in library) chance of seeing one of the cards the caster had intended to shuffle away with the draw effect.

It seems to me as though the important environmental factors to consider would be the size of the library and the number of shuffle effects available in the deck. I'm personally inclined to think that with the large number of shuffle effects in vintage from tutors/fetchlands/etc. that the main argument for Preordain is largely nullified and that the deck size throughout a vintage game is usually too large for the probability of drawing a card that has already been seen to be too important of a factor. I'd be interested to hear any other thoughts on this matter.

[LotusHead]

if both ponder and preordain were unrestriscted, both would be a 4 of.

UNLESS brainstorm was also unrestricted.

In which case all 3 would be a 4 of, with maybe preordain being a 3 or 2 of due to fetches and brainstorms' dominance.

[madmanmike25]

Ponder digs deeper.  Sorry if that is over simplified but I think that's what matters the most.  After Preordain I wonder if anyone would use Halimar Depths since it also costs one mana, yet won't pitch to FoW.

[Mr. Type 4]

I think it's more debateable than that.  Ponder definitely digs deeper, which matters most when the plan is to dig for something specific.  If I'm drawing on 5 outs and I can choose to topdeck a Ponder or a Preordain, then I want the Ponder. 

Then there's this:

I'm personally inclined to think that with the large number of shuffle effects in vintage from tutors/fetchlands/etc. that the main argument for Preordain is largely nullified and that the deck size throughout a vintage game is usually too large for the probability of drawing a card that has already been seen to be too important of a factor.

I'd disagree with this sentiment.  We can't count on having shuffle effects to save us from bad draws on the top of the library any more than we could when Brainstorm was a 4-of.  The most extreme example is in a Gush deck.  If I'm playing a Gush deck, then I often want to preordain followed by another draw spell like Gush or a second Preordain.  In this case, Preordain is usually a lot better because moving the blanks away and knowing I'm not going to re-draw them is big. 

I'd actually argue that for as many times as Ponder will let you "look at 3 bad cards then let you shuffle and draw a good one" you will face the opposite situation where Ponder gives you a card you need but leaves you with junk on top of your deck that you have nothing to do but draw through. 

[DubDub]

Ponder digs deeper.  Sorry if that is over simplified but I think that's what matters the most.  After Preordain I wonder if anyone would use Halimar Depths since it also costs one mana, yet won't pitch to FoW.

Halimar Depths is really completely different.  The biggest knocks against it are that it doesn't build storm, and that it doesn't draw you a card.  Sure, you get an Island-ish thing on the battlefield, but you don't get a new card in your hand.  You can't chain it together with other spells on the same turn, just set the one you like on top for the next turn, and you can't chain it together with other copies of Depths.   'Not building storm' isn't always a drawback, since you also don't have to pay extra for the same effect against Spheres.  It's funny because if Halimar Depths did put a card into your hand it would simultaneously see massively more play in Vintage while also slowing the format down.

Another issue with Depths is the opportunity cost of not having the option to have it enter play untapped with no additional effect.  The fact of the matter is that Vintage has such powerful spells already that just casting those spells is at times the most important thing, not getting value from lands.  In a hand like:

Preordain
Ancestral Recall
Island
Force of Will
Mox Emerald
Hurkyl's Recall
Vampiric Tutor

Preordain can clearly be made a lower priority than Ancestral.  Whereas with:

Preordain
Ancestral Recall
Halimar Depths
Force of Will
Mox Emerald
Hurkyl's Recall
Vampiric Tutor

We have only one line of play.

The most extreme example is in a Gush deck.  If I'm playing a Gush deck, then I often want to preordain followed by another draw spell like Gush or a second Preordain.  In this case, Preordain is usually a lot better because moving the blanks away and knowing I'm not going to re-draw them is big. 

I very much agree.  With Ponder in multiples (and no intervening shuffle effect, or big draw spell that clears the top of your library) you're increasing the odds over time you're going to want to shuffle, whereas with Preordain in multiples you're increasing the odds of seeing better and better cards.  Additionally, Preordain seems better when it's used to find a draw spell (like Gush) which then gets cast, because you aren't just drawing 'the other two cards Ponder already showed me'.

[TheBrassMan]

if both ponder and preordain were unrestriscted, both would be a 4 of.

UNLESS brainstorm was also unrestricted.

In which case all 3 would be a 4 of, with maybe preordain being a 3 or 2 of due to fetches and brainstorms' dominance.

I think this is a little silly.  Ponder is a fine card, but it's nowhere near this good.  I can't imagine a deck that would want 1 Brainstorm, 4 Ponder, 4 Preordain.  I haven't even wanted 3 Preordain in a list, and I haven't liked Ponder since Merchant Scroll was legal.  Brainstorm is a very good card, Ponder and Preordain are "just okay."  I find both cards extremely underwhelming in a metagame where Workshops are this good.

As for my personal rule of thumb, I prefer Ponder when you're trying to find one (or one of a small numebr of) specific card(/s).  I prefer Preordain in other circumstances, when you're just generally trying to improve the quality of your draws.  Lately I've been running 2 Preordain/0 Ponder, but neither card has struck me as particularly impressive.

[TopSecret]

Doesn't it kind of depend on the deck?

[vaughnbros]

As for my personal rule of thumb, I prefer Ponder when you're trying to find one (or one of a small numebr of) specific card(/s).  I prefer Preordain in other circumstances, when you're just generally trying to improve the quality of your draws.  Lately I've been running 2 Preordain/0 Ponder, but neither card has struck me as particularly impressive.

I agree completely neither card is really that good they are just the best options since brainstorm is restricted.  My vote goes for preordain though because it is capable of pulling bad cards off the top of your library and still keep the good ones.

In reality the only deck i see benefiting from the unrestriction of ponder would be ritual based combo and since they have so much difficulty against stax i dont think that it would impact the format very much.

[Eastman]

This sentiment appears in dribs and drabs above but it really does depend on the deck/circumstance.  In a gush deck that is just trying to run an engine, I think preordain is overall a better card, it lets you keep pushing for quality and chaining draws.  On the other hand in a deck that just wants to look for a bomb when it isn't smoothing early draws, I think ponder is better.  Decks like turbo tezz or TPS come to mind in this regard.  
  
Oh another point about ponder--it is preferable to preordain in decks with multiple sensei's tops.  Generally I find brainstorm/preordain/ponder all pretty yawnstipating when I have a sensei's top out, but among them ponder is the best in that circumstance.  Brainstorm under top only lets you see one extra card (plus shuffle some away), which totally bites.  Preordain under top lets you see three new cards (assuming you scry away the top 2 top has already shown you, then draw the third top has already shown you, top can then look at a new 3 underneath).  But Ponder at least lets you see 4 new cards (you look at three that top already showed you, shuffle them, draw 1 new card, then top sees 3 new cards).   Obviously brainstorm is the best in general, so in decks with 2 or more sensei's top, after brainstorm I prefer ponder over preordain and would run it first.  

[Shax]

Brainstorm is the second best 1cmc card in vintage. A.Recall takes the top spot. You could argue for a counterspell like Spell Pierce, but card draw is more important in finding win condition. Ponder is good. Preordain is crap. Preordain is a evil you must use in finding a win condition. Jace TMS is the reason blue decks are winning games.

[Cruel Ultimatum]

Brainstorm is the second best 1cmc card in vintage. A.Recall takes the top spot. You could argue for a counterspell like Spell Pierce, but card draw is more important in finding win condition. Ponder is good. Preordain is crap. Preordain is a evil you must use in finding a win condition. Jace TMS is the reason blue decks are winning games.

have you played vintage since gush was unrestricted?

[Meddling Mike]

One of the things I like about this discussion is that it involves factors that are not easily or typically quantifiable. It's hard to place a value on one extra card worth of penetration vs. potentially increasing the quality of subsequent draws.

Brainstorm is the second best 1cmc card in vintage.

Personally I'd put a number of cards above Brainstorm in that category. Fastbond immediately comes to mind, probably vamp, mystical and mana vault as well. If you meant the 2nd best 1 cmc draw spell/cantrip in vintage I'd be inclined to agree.

We can't count on having shuffle effects to save us from bad draws on the top of the library any more than we could when Brainstorm was a 4-of.

I'm certainly not suggesting that every single time you cast a ponder and end up with two undesirables on top you're going to have a fetchland handy, but I do believe that there are enough shuffle effects out there that some portion of the time you're going to be able to negate this drawback to some extent. When dealing with cards that are this similar I think that consideration might be enough to give it the nod.

[Ego_Sum]

I have to second exactly what Brassman said, poder and Preordain are okay cards, but I think preordain must still be played at least in sinergy with Gush for consisntancy matters (brainstorm will be obv. better, but we have only 1 of them).

And as Brassman said, ponder is a lot better when all you are looking for is a given card (for insntance the second land drop, or the piece of pretection, ...), while preordain shines in different situations, when your only worry is to sculpt a better hand to keep playing.

Greetings,

Iñaki.-

[TheBrassMan]

This is tangential to this thread - but lets not all go and start mixing up Brainstorms and Ponders.  Ponder and Preordain are cantrips, and good cantrips.  Brainstorm is a draw spell that can act as a cantrip in dire situations - they're barely comparable.  Ponder can't replace Brainstorm any more than Careful Study can replace Thirst for Knowledge, or Entomb can replace Gifts Ungiven.

Don't look at a deck that wants Brainstorm or used to run Brainstorm and think that just running cantrips there is fine.  You should only be looking at Ponder or Preordain if you actually want a cantrip effect- and not a lot of decks do.

Preordain and Ponder are really really close in power level.  If your Preordains and Ponders are remotely similar to your Brainstorms - I would strongly suggest playing your Brainstorms differently.

[serracollector]

I honestly beleive it has to do with the deck.  I have always ran preordain in Vintage with Sensies Top, and Confidants, and with these cards Ponder and Preordain are almost the same as ponder can let you shuffle and see 3 new cards with top, while preordain can let you put 2 on bottom, draw 1, then have 3 new cards to look at.

The best reason I can think of to run Preordain over Ponder is the fact that I can brainstorm, put 2 cards I don't need on top, then Preordain, and put them 2 on the bottom and cantrip.  With ponder you can shuffle those to back in, but still have a chance of drawing into either, since preordain puts it on the bottom, you have no chance to draw it again (as long as its a 1 of, which most cards are in Vintage blue decks).  This ofc only really matters in Legacy as Brainstorm and Preordain can both be 4 of's.  BS + Preordain is a 2 mana Draw 4 cards combo.  And works very well, especially alongside Confidants and Tops.

So, IMO, as long as I have top and Brainstorm (even as a 1 of) preordain is better than Ponder.  I would rather move unneeded cards to the bottom, than shuffle, any day.

[Oath of Happy]

Ponder is much better at setting up into the next turn since it lets you see and manipulate 3 cards.  Lets say you keep a 1 lander and play Preordain turn 1 and one of your top 2 cards is a land, the other is garbage.  You end up drawing the land since you need it for the next turn, even though it will be useless this turn.  With Ponder, you could have left the land on top to draw next turn if the third card was something you may have needed for the current turn like a Force of Will or a Lotus.

[Ego_Sum]

The best reason I can think of to run Preordain over Ponder is the fact that I can brainstorm, put 2 cards I don't need on top, then Preordain, and put them 2 on the bottom and cantrip.  With ponder you can shuffle those to back in, but still have a chance of drawing into either, since preordain puts it on the bottom, you have no chance to draw it again (as long as its a 1 of, which most cards are in Vintage blue decks).  This ofc only really matters in Legacy as Brainstorm and Preordain can both be 4 of's.  BS + Preordain is a 2 mana Draw 4 cards combo. 

This is only true when you have two useless cards in hand, there are, not few, times when you brainstorm and prefer not to lose on of the cards you are hiding. But I agree this is quite useful, specially, as you said in legacy (for instance in my Spiral Tide Legacy build Preordain works incredibly well with brainstorm, doing a similar function as Impulse does in the Solidarity builds.

Greetings,

Iñaki.-

[nineisnoone]

One of the things I like about this discussion is that it involves factors that are not easily or typically quantifiable. It's hard to place a value on one extra card worth of penetration vs. potentially increasing the quality of subsequent draws.

I don't think it's that difficult. I think the problem is that when we speak of card quality we tend to mix in a lot of judgment calls into the analysis, when we shouldn't. 

If you see 2 card with Preordrain, how do you know if the it's better to take the best of the two or go blind for the third?  ::shrug:: I don't know.  But if you can't figure that out, then who is to say that if you saw all 3 cards, you would make the correct choice?

I'm not saying you have to be perfect, but if you want to evaluate the card you have to assume that you can make correct decisions based on information.  Because fundamentally that's really all the card is providing you.

With that said, I would say Ponder is relatively better 75% of the time because 3/4 times (on average) the correct card choice (out of relevant choices) will be in the first 3 cards as opposed to the fourth. 

Of course, maybe that 25% of the time is more important that whatever advantage that scrying gives you over re-ordering the top of the deck. 

So I'd say, as a rough metric, if 25% of the time you are looking for something specific, then you want Ponder.  If you don't, the go for Preordain... which ends up coinciding with what I see as popular usage.  Ponder is better for combo whereas Preordain is better for control.

[V is for Vintage]

There is no correct answer. These spells are COMPLETELY different

Ponder is a digging card

Preordain is a filtering card


Explosive combo decks look for cards like ponder, where they can dig deeply quickly, and set up later turns. The downside to this card is that more often than not, you're NOT going to want one-two of the top 3 cards, and may be forced to keep based on one card in the pile.

Preordain, on the other hand, sculpts not only the hand, but the deck as well. Slower, control decks are better off running this card due to the ability to put excess on the bottom of the deck. This card increases the quality of draw. Ponder simply draws faster

I think as a 1 of, preordain would be kind of weak, but as a 4 of, the constant ability to sculpt hands fixes decks that run heavy on mana, spells, etc.

as a 1 of, ponder is still good because it digs. In the current US meta, both are pretty bad, but I'd still go for 4 preordain in a list before I add my first ponder, because control and drawing mana sources are critical. sculpting the hand is more important than digging for a kill in my current meta. I know that's not the same for everyone else, but these are my observations

[Oath of Happy]

Ponder is better than Preordain. End of story.

[Purple Hat]

Ponder is better than Preordain. End of story.

I've really been liking preordain in a lot of situations recently.  I think they're pretty close.  Ponder is better when going off, preordain is better when setting up because you don't have to draw those cards.  The real question is will the existence of unrestricted preordain lead to unrestricted ponder....and would that be broken?

[GrandpaBelcher]

Ponder is better than Preordain. End of story.

I've really been liking preordain in a lot of situations recently.  I think they're pretty close.  Ponder is better when going off, preordain is better when setting up because you don't have to draw those cards.  The real question is will the existence of unrestricted preordain lead to unrestricted ponder....and would that be broken?

Yes, it's definitely not the end of the story. Both cards have subtle but important differences, in the same way that there are times when getting Brainstorm rather than Ancestral is the right play

I actually wonder when we'll see restricted Preordain. Seems like Ancestral, Brainstorm, Ponder, and Preordain is a pretty broken foursome. Especially backed up with 4 Portent.