[Premium Article] DOOMSDAY RETURNS: How to Build Doomsday Piles and Win in T1

[AmbivalentDuck]

Casually wading in... A good deal of the information in this thread is old. Cagebreaker Dredge builds run Misstep main, which screws up the reliability of any "pass the turn" pile. Once upon a time, you could safely Ritual->Doomsday turn 1 against Dredge knowing you could win the next turn despite Cabal Therapy. This generally relies on resolving Ancestral Recall, though. Anyways, this forces something of an update in any discussion of the amount of Dredge hate a Ritual build needs.

[vaughnbros]

Dark rituals accelerate doomsday into a turn 2/3 combo deck capable of racing the other combo decks and dredge.  They also make wasteland significantly less powerful against the deck.

It's training wheels.  Doomsday doesn't need to race combo decks, and is still capable of winning LOTS of games on turn 2/3 without Dark Rituals.  Just tutor up Fastbond and go off.  I've played plenty of games against decks like Dredge/Elves where I turn 1 Imperial Seal for Lotus, turn 2 Doomsday and win.   Not to mention the fact that Jet, Petal, Fastbond and Lotus drawn naturally allow for easy turn 2 wins.  

See the block text I quoted from my article, and you'll see how the very first version of this deck I built had 4 Dark Rituals, and I slowly started to cut them, until I ran 0.

This is if you are completely undisrupted.  Dredge runs mental misstep, and therapies in the main as well as other cards out of the board while still maintaining consistent turn 3 victories.  By cutting ritual you are reducing the consistency of the deck. You have significantly lower chance of having doomsday, and enough mana to cast it on turn 2.

The bigger more relevant issue of not running ritual that I brought up earlier is hitting triple black when your opponnet is running wastelands.  Your later builds without ritual would flat out lose or are severely slowed down from a well timed wasteland on underground sea.

[Smmenen]

Flat out lose??  Huh??  You don't need Doomsday to win the game you know.  Half of the games with this deck should be won with Yawg Will/Tendrils. 

Just Fastbond or Lotus against Wasteland. You don't need Ritual.

[vaughnbros]

Flat out lose??  Huh??  You don't need Doomsday to win the game you know.  Half of the games with this deck should be won with Yawg Will/Tendrils. 

If you don't have enough black mana sources left in your deck you have effectively lost.  Resolving a singleton yawg will into tendrils through the counter package of landstill or the spheres of shops does not seem like an effective plan B against the two main decks running wastes.

[Smmenen]

Flat out lose??  Huh??  You don't need Doomsday to win the game you know.  Half of the games with this deck should be won with Yawg Will/Tendrils.  

If you don't have enough black mana sources left in your deck you have effectively lost.  Resolving a singleton yawg will into tendrils through the counter package of landstill or the spheres of shops does not seem like an effective plan B against the two main decks running wastes.

You do realize how Fastbond and Yawgmotys Will interact right?  You can replay black mana sources from your graveyard. You don't need them in your deck. Your comment doesn't make sense. 

It's not a plan b.  see my Waterbury report.  I'm in the control role or Gushbond into Tendrils.  You don't need Doomsday. Doomsday is just Tinker here

[Samoht]

Flat out lose??  Huh??  You don't need Doomsday to win the game you know.  Half of the games with this deck should be won with Yawg Will/Tendrils. 

If you don't have enough black mana sources left in your deck you have effectively lost.  Resolving a singleton yawg will into tendrils through the counter package of landstill or the spheres of shops does not seem like an effective plan B against the two main decks running wastes.

Couldn't agree more.

[Smmenen]

Except it doesn't even make sense.  Taking the Shop matchup, Dark Ritual is pretty much useless in that matchup, and Doomsday is almost impossible to cast with or without Dark Ritual if Spheres are in play.  The game plan in the Shop matchup is not about resolving Doomsday through spheres.   And, even if it were, Dark Ritual dosen't help.

So in the context of a pro-Dark Ritual argument, the contention that Dark Ritual helps accelerate out Doomsday under Spheres is unavailing.

Against landstill decks, Dark Ritual dilutes the decks threat density.  So while it may help you cast Doomsday in some theoretical sense, it actually reduces your ability to win counterwars, generate virtual card advantage, and maximize the overall benefits of cards like Gush.  While it may help you cast Doomsday, it almost ensures that you won't be able to resolve Doomsday or leverage it into a winning end game against counterspell dense decks.  To make Ritual work, you need ball stoppers like Xantid Swarm.  Which means grafting another band aid onto an unnecessary design hole/flaw.  

The proper game plan against control is the accretion of advantages until either a Doomsday or Yawgmoths Will can be set up and executed.  Dark Ritual not only is unnecessary to facilitate that, but actually hampers that plan. 

Against Wasteland, the proper response is Gush anyway (often, at least).   It just seems like some people don't really know how to use Gush properly.  

If Dark Ritual were necessary or important, I would have played at the Waterbury where I broke out this deck, or in the Meandeck Open I won with it the following March.  It may help some players with the deck, but it's just training wheels.  

[AmbivalentDuck]

So in the context of a pro-Dark Ritual argument, the contention that Dark Ritual helps accelerate out Doomsday under Spheres is unavailing.

Before Spheres.

[emidln]

So in the context of a pro-Dark Ritual argument, the contention that Dark Ritual helps accelerate out Doomsday under Spheres is unavailing.

Before Spheres.

Most useful to me has been the situation vs tangle wire. Either bouncing permanents with wire on the stack on my turn or the situation where wire + strips + pressure allows me a single land drop to combo. Both of these occur frequently enough that I never side out Ritual vs workshops. Being able to Ritual into doomsday or will is absolutely huge when you really need to win *right now*.

[Smmenen]

So in the context of a pro-Dark Ritual argument, the contention that Dark Ritual helps accelerate out Doomsday under Spheres is unavailing.

Before Spheres.

Fantasy land.   Spheres start coming down on turn one.  Gush can't even be used until turn 2.

[AmbivalentDuck]

It's not unlikely that you can answer the first Sphere or that their first turn play isn't a Sphere.

[Smmenen]

Yeah, but it is unlikely that a Sphere won't be in play by the time you try to combo out and Gush. 

Dark Ritual is terrible against Shops.  I sideboard them out against Workshops when playing Burning Tendrils. 

[Stormanimagus]

I'm not quite sure why players don't seem to think a set of 3-4 Hurkyl's Recall won't get you there as the combo-gush pilot? To me, that, combined with Force Of Will and either some chewers, claims, grudges, bolts or whatever will def. get you there. All you need to do is resolve a 2 CMC instant by the time you want to combo out and you just need to make sure you can indeed fully combo out the following turn. I think the Hurkyl's plan is plenty viable. I think the only reason it hasn't been of late is because Gush players are designing crappy versions of gush that CAN'T reliably win the turn after they Hurkyl's. This is a flaw in design around Hurkyls, but not in the card's effectiveness itself. Personally, I think the hype over Pyromancer got a little out of hand and I really don't think the card is the silver bullet this deck needs against shops. It is ok against some versions of shops and that's about it in my view.

-Storm

[Samoht]

I'm not quite sure why players don't seem to think a set of 3-4 Hurkyl's Recall won't get you there as the combo-gush pilot? To me, that, combined with Force Of Will and either some chewers, claims, grudges, bolts or whatever will def. get you there. All you need to do is resolve a 2 CMC instant by the time you want to combo out and you just need to make sure you can indeed fully combo out the following turn. I think the Hurkyl's plan is plenty viable. I think the only reason it hasn't been of late is because Gush players are designing crappy versions of gush that CAN'T reliably win the turn after they Hurkyl's. This is a flaw in design around Hurkyls, but not in the card's effectiveness itself. Personally, I think the hype over Pyromancer got a little out of hand and I really don't think the card is the silver bullet this deck needs against shops. It is ok against some versions of shops and that's about it in my view.

-Storm

The Forino based Shop decks are designed specifically to prevent a Hurks from happening at any point that is advantageous for the combo player. They either force you to do it in Combat or in your Upkeep, tying up almost all of your resources and ensuring they can rebuild. Obviously it's not foolproof, but it's efficacy shouldn't be overlooked.

[AmbivalentDuck]

Yeah, but it is unlikely that a Sphere won't be in play by the time you try to combo out and Gush.

Because you don't have Rituals. Goldfish Soly's build a few times. You can easily combo out on turn 2 even if you assume you have to Chew/Duress/Force a Sphere to do it.

[Smmenen]

Soly has 2 Rituals btw, and said in his report that he'd be going down to one. He doesn't help your case. 

[AmbivalentDuck]

My case stands on its own: the odds of assembling the Doomsday combo by/on turn 2 are higher if you don't need to rely on Fastbond/Lotus/Petal to make BBB for you. Among other things, a singleton Ritual is still a Mystical target. How early you can combo off used to really matter in the Dredge matchup (and I haven't tested it since) since it allows you to run a minimal Dredge sideboard and instead devote an appropriate amount of space to Workshop hate.

[Mith]

I'm testing out a build with one ritual. It's nice to have as a tutor target for a quick win. That being said, it's always my preference to have flexibility.

[Smmenen]

that's pretty much where i stand.  I said way back in this thread that 1 Ritual is fine, but I would be wary of more, and certainly wouldn't run 4. 

[Varal]

How accurate is your article for the new versions of Doomsday? I would like to playtest the deck but I'm really intimidated by its difficulty level. Would I be a good playtest partner with this deck after reading your article and goldfishing a bit?

[Smmenen]

I believe so.  All of the lists are basically derivative of what's in here, except that they run more Rituals and less disruption in varying proportions.  

More importantly, if you study the scenarios/piles in this article, it will be very helpful to you.  You'll also better understand my approach to designing Maniac/Doomsday in the first place.   It's a fairly simple thing to update your lists with the basic principles/theory explicated here.  

[Smmenen]

Cross-posted (in part) from the other Doomsday thread because I elaborated on some important theory there:

The consensus I am coming to is that there is a more controlling way to build Doomsday where you just so happen to have a win now combo, and for a lack of better words there is a more “combo” oriented way  or approach to build it, including rituals.

Ie. Gush-control with a potential Doomsday finisher.

That's actually not at all what I'm trying to argue at all. 

Let me try again. 

Consider Mike Flores' principle: misassignment of role equals game loss. The idea here is that you want role flexibility so that you can choose a role that is most optimal in any given matchup or situation.   Zvi elaborated on this idea in his "Who's the Beatdown 2?" essay, arguing that the player that can successfully seize BOTH roles, or, put another way, deny the opponent an optimal role, will win the game.

I am not advocating for a "more controlling" Doomsday deck.  I'm advocating for a more *flexible* Doomsday deck, one that is able to play both roles.

Put simply: When I won the Meandeck Open with this deck, I went off on turn 2 both games against Elves.  In one game I simply Imperial Sealed for Lotus on turn one, and won on turn 2.   In another game, I cast T2 Doomsday with Sea, Sea, Petal and won on Turn 2.   In my round 2 or 3 opponent at the Waterbury, in contrast, I played a hard control role against a slow control deck, and eventually won by virtue of my inherently superior virtual and actual card advantage.  I was able to grind him out.

The point is simple: I am able to play whatever role I want.   

It is not a matter of playing a "more controlling" Gush deck.  Rather, it is a matter of playing a deck that *can* be more controlling.  The option to play a controlling role should not be confused (and is being confused) with being a more controlling role.  This is a subtle, but critical distinction.

There is a second area of confusion that is leading to the wrong conclusion:

I do agree with ambivalentduck that just because you cut rituals from the deck for more counter magic doesn’t mean that you have a better workshop match.

That's not what I said.   Look at what I said more carefully:

the bottom line there is that Dark Ritual doesn't help any bad matchups, and makes you marginally worse against important matchups.

The "important" matchup I was referring to in the second part of this sentence isn't Workshops (that would be conflating the "bad matchup" part of the sentence with the "important matchup" part of the sentence.  It's blue decks.  Dark Rituals dilute your ability to win games -- in *either* role -- against control decks.  Yes, you can win marginally faster (although how much faster is overstated), but your ability to *protect* your win is greatly diminished AND the option to play the control role is virtually eliminated. 

The weakness of Ritual against Workshops is not the critical issue, although that is also a salient fact.  Anyone who thinks Dark Rituals is good against Workshops lives in fantasy land and is not a real/serious/regular Vintage tournament player.   

To the point that Rituals are just as bad as Flusterstorm/Misstep against Workshops, while that may be true, that does not diminish how bad Rituals are against Workshops, and that argument masks another critical point: building your Doomsday deck to rely on Rituals means that you can't optimize your deck post-sideboard against Workshops.  Put another way: an optimal post-sideboard Doomsday deck against Shops would have 0 Rituals, whether you are playing the Ritual version or not. 

A backdrop issue to this deck is, frankly, a lack of skilled players in this format.  In my Doomsday returns primer, I explained how I originally had a Gitaxian probe until I realized that there is no pile/situation where you can't win without it -- a realization I didn't have until the morning of the tournament.  Yet, people still run Probe.   Relatedly, Fastbond functions in a very similar, but superior and more flexible role, to Dark Ritual.  Anyone who would cut Fastbond is doing it wrong.

I will concede that Dark Rituals will probably help you agianst Dredge because they make you marginally faster.  But as the debate in the other Doomsday thread bore out, you still don't want to cut Dredge hate (see Mark Hornung's classic response).  But Dark Rituals weaken you signfiicantly against blue decks, and are terrible against Workshops in general. 

***

One last note that is not in the other thread:

Consider Brian Demars post at the beginning of this thread.  The reason he was so impressed with this deck is its ability to play both roles.  When I was playing against him, I dominated because he couldn't combo or play the control role.  I was playing a better combo AND control deck.  The role you play is not and should not be dictated merely by the cards you have and the tactics you've included, but by the situation itself.   If your opponent is playing a control deck and goes to a combo mode, with little resistence, you want to be able to stop it or combo out faster.   But if your opponent is in a hard control role, you want the option to out-control them or overcome their countermagic.   This deck can do both.  The reason it can do both is deeply rooted in Gush theory, but essentially boils down to virtual card advantage generated by Gush and a light mana base.  Gush IS a quasi Dark Ritual.  More accurately, it can function as a Cabal Ritual. 

[AmbivalentDuck]

Put simply: When I won the Meandeck Open with this deck, I went off on turn 2 both games against Elves.  In one game I simply Imperial Sealed for Lotus on turn one, and won on turn 2.   In another game, I cast T2 Doomsday with Sea, Sea, Petal and won on Turn 2.   In my round 2 or 3 opponent at the Waterbury, in contrast, I played a hard control role against a slow control deck, and eventually won by virtue of my inherently superior virtual and actual card advantage.  I was able to grind him out.

Flexibility is limited by the likelihood of access to both roles. If your plan is to always draw Black Lotus when you need it, "Kai Budde doesn't lose on Sundays."

@Imperial Seal
Obviously completely essential to add more tutoring to support flexibility.

[Smmenen]

Yes, and a deck with Fastbond, Black Lotus, Lotus Petal, and Mox Jet, and say, just 0-1 Rituals, has a fine time playing a combo role.  All of those accelerants enable Turn 2 Doomsday.  You don't need additional Rituals.  I'm confident because I've played this deck in multiple tournaments where I've won many games on turn 1-2, as I described in my post above (see the Elves games, as an example).

[AmbivalentDuck]

That's anecdote, not a turn 2 goldfish rate.

[Smmenen]

I didn't claim a Turn 2 Goldfish rate.  What I said was that the deck was capable of playing a fast-combo role and winning quickly without 4 Dark Rituals.

fyi:

Played Steve's list with one Ritual and 4x Snuff Out in the Board and top-4'd a rather small Xtreme Games tourney.

One Ritual was by-far all that I ever wanted to see and/or tutor for. I never had trouble casting DDay, and was happy to tutor for the ritual when needed.

The list felt very solid. Shops was quite manageable, and next time I'll be adding a red splash for Chewers and a Pyroclasm.

Soly's idea to splash red for SB chewers is strong. 

If you look in the Morphling.de database, I won a Meandeck Open with Trygon Predator's (to answer personalbackfire's question), but I think Chewers are superior. 

[AmbivalentDuck]

And I'm saying that "capable" is a useless argument. Drawing Black Lotus when you need it is an anecdote and "Draw Black Lotus when I need it" is not a strategy.

I'd bet a case of beer that 1-2 Rituals are optimal, but there's no ready way of finding out. It's pretty clear that if you cut down from 2 Rits to 1, Imperial Seal is the correct replacement.

[Smmenen]

And I'm saying that "capable" is a useless argument. Drawing Black Lotus when you need it is an anecdote and "Draw Black Lotus when I need it" is not a strategy.

I'd bet a case of beer that 1-2 Rituals are optimal, but there's no ready way of finding out. It's pretty clear that if you cut down from 2 Rits to 1, Imperial Seal is the correct replacement.

Except that, since the beginning of this thread (page 1), you've been a 4 Ritual advocate. 0-1 has been my position since day 1.  You are now agreeing with me by moving to 1-2 range.  Also, I've said this deck needs Imperial Seal since day 1. Any list without it is suboptimized.  

[AmbivalentDuck]

Done trying to straw man me?

It's conceivable that he'd cut 1-2 Doomsday/Dark Rits for the countermagic he mentions.  He also may not be playing with the Gitaxian Probe technology that emidln and I favor, probably to support Mental Misstep.  As far as Teferi's Realm, if I thought I could manage enough mana to cast Rebuild...well...we wouldn't be running zero of them.

I'm not sure why he'd run additional countermagic since the "blue" and "Fish" matchups are already rock solid.  Like any Ritual combo deck, it chokes on Spheres.  Some additional H Recalls/Steel Sabotages/Spell Pierces could be moved main, but Xtreme Games is light on Workshops.

The optimal number of Rituals is meta-dependent and has a lot to do with how often you need to go off turn 2 and how many Chalices @ 0 you can expect to see. Drop the anecdotes. "Never lost to dredge with ____" and "Always had Lotus when I needed it" are NOT arguments that can be expected to hold as your sample size increases. That is, unless you're cheating?

[Smmenen]

Done trying to straw man me?

Not at all.  read your posts:

Builds with 2+ Rituals have a better recent performance history.

Anyone reading this thread can see you have criticized me for cutting ANY number of Dark Rituals since the beginning, and all of your arguments have been why Dark Ritual is so important or necessary, and my arguments have been the other direction.  I've said in this thread, in my articles, etc that 0-1 Rituals is fine.  Your arguments were awful because you incorrectly viewed Rituals as good against Shops, when they are about as bad as any card can get in that matchup. 

It's conceivable that he'd cut 1-2 Doomsday/Dark Rits for the countermagic he mentions.  He also may not be playing with the Gitaxian Probe technology that emidln and I favor, probably to support Mental Misstep.  As far as Teferi's Realm, if I thought I could manage enough mana to cast Rebuild...well...we wouldn't be running zero of them.

I'm not sure why he'd run additional countermagic since the "blue" and "Fish" matchups are already rock solid.  Like any Ritual combo deck, it chokes on Spheres.  Some additional H Recalls/Steel Sabotages/Spell Pierces could be moved main, but Xtreme Games is light on Workshops.

The optimal number of Rituals is meta-dependent and has a lot to do with how often you need to go off turn 2 and how many Chalices @ 0 you can expect to see. Drop the anecdotes. "Never lost to dredge with ____" and "Always had Lotus when I needed it" are NOT arguments that can be expected to hold as your sample size increases. That is, unless you're cheating?

I agree that Chalices do affect the degree to which Rituals are correct, but not in the way that you suggest.   Dark Rituals, again, are terrible against Shops.  The number of Chalices you expect to face rise in direct proportion to the presence of Workshops.  Your arguments have been pretty awful from the beginning because you don't actually play real Vintage tournaments.  I do.  And I've won them.  

I have never lost to Dredge with X is a fact, not an argument.  You are confusing the two.   That fact is used to support an argument in favor of Y.  It does support it.  It's not proof of Y, but it is supportive.

I never said anything about "always having Lotus" when I need it.  What I said is that if this deck is built correctly (which my list has been since I started this thread), AND played well, you can win without relying or needing Rituals.   It means the deck relies more on cards like Fastbond and Lotus and Imperial Seal to find them.   1 Ritual is fine as a Mystical Tutor target, but 3-4 Rituals is suboptimal.  

Again, read my post:

Yes, and a deck with Fastbond, Black Lotus, Lotus Petal, and Mox Jet, and say, just 0-1 Rituals, has a fine time playing a combo role.  All of those accelerants enable Turn 2 Doomsday.  You don't need additional Rituals.  I'm confident because I've played this deck in multiple tournaments where I've won many games on turn 1-2, as I described in my post above (see the Elves games, as an example).

Obviously, I've also done extensive testing.  I'm not just lifting up a single or even multiple tournaments as proof.  My TESTING establishes that I am able to play the combo role (i.e. both roles) without 3-4 Rituals.