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Author Topic: [Free Article] SMIP Podcast # 18 Return to Ravnica Part II and Burning Wish”  (Read 6157 times)
Smmenen
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« on: October 02, 2012, 04:10:05 pm »

http://www.mtgcast.com/mtgcast-podcast-shows/active-podcast-shows/so-many-insane-plays/so-many-insane-plays-episode-18-return-to-ravnica-part-ii-and-burning-wish

Kevin Cron and Steve Menendian conclude their discussion of Return to Ravnica as well as the unrestriction of Burning Wish.

 

Contact us at @ManyInsanePlays on Twitter or e-mail us at SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com.

 

0:06:20: Burning Wish
0:28:00: Rest in Peace
0:39:34: Epic Experiment
0:47:06: Vandalblast
0:52:35: Deathrite Shaman
0:57:50: Abrupt Decay
1:01:19: Detention Sphere
1:03:00: Treasured Find
1:08:36: Nivmagus Elemental
1:19:27: Rakdos Charm
1:24:08: Slitherhead

 
Your Host(s): Kevin Cron , Steve Menendian
Show’s Email: SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com
Show’s Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/ManyInsanePlays
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2012, 06:52:48 pm »

Nice job on the podcast gentlemen. I liked the history of Burning Long; it brought back memories. I'm surprised with the fascination with Nivmagus. I don't see the appeal. If it turns out I'm wrong then so be it, I just don't get how this card is even close to Vintage playable. Aren't Quirion Dryad, Kiln Fiend, and Psychatog just better?

Steve, I look forward to reading your history of vintage. Good luck in your research.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2012, 07:19:18 pm »

Nice job on the podcast gentlemen. I liked the history of Burning Long; it brought back memories. I'm surprised with the fascination with Nivmagus. I don't see the appeal. If it turns out I'm wrong then so be it, I just don't get how this card is even close to Vintage playable. Aren't Quirion Dryad, Kiln Fiend, and Psychatog just better?


This is a really fair question, but the difference between all of those cards and Nivmagus is really notable: Nivmagus costs 1 mana.   In a deck that naturally has or can support 4 Flusterstorm, it is a brutal and nasty combo.   A 9 power creature for 1 mana and 1 other spell can, I think, cross over the line of Vintage playability.

I think it could have a serious home in either RUG Delver or in an even more aggressive UR Delver list.    I think a tempo deck with 4 Flusterstorm, 4 Bolt, 4 Nivmagus, 4 Delver, and 4 Snapcaster could be insane.  Snapcaster can flashback both Flusterstorm to pump Nivmagus or Bolt to clear the way for a lethal attack.  

Thanks for the positive feedback.  I thought this was one of our beter podcasts. It turned out really well.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2012, 07:22:56 pm by Smmenen » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2012, 03:27:10 pm »

Heya,

Really enjoyed the podcast, guys.  I'm looking forward to your reportcard around Gatecrash Smile
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2012, 03:49:09 pm »

There is a certain fire I get inside when either Kevin or Steve either completely dismiss or only allow the fluke Top 8 of a card evaluation, especially after my success introducing the world to Shardless Agent.  I haven't decided which card it is yet, but I will try to make one of your fringe cards appear in your report card.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2012, 03:53:35 pm »

I think we are probably much less dismissive of new ideas or technology than many if not most Vintage commentators -- or, at least, I hope I am.  I spoke up for some cards in this set, as I have in the past (like Baleful Strix). 

But ultimately, it is far more important to be accurate than it is to appear open-minded.  I'm not going to predict a card to appear in Top 8s -- even if I think it's playable in theory -- if I don't actually expect it to do so.   
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2012, 04:20:48 pm »

I think you are right about Shaman though, I even think you are underestimating it. It is showing to be extremely useful in many match ups. And I know my designs aren't showing up in top 8 offline events, but for a long time now, I have been testing and tuning with two new archetypes. (Human/Caverns and Midrange Ranger Beats) Shaman goes straight into the Midrange Ranger Beats and I can say it is a perfect home for it.

The problem is however, Ranger is not a card that will see top 8, at least not if nobody takes up the archetype in an offline event. And while Shaman is strong in decks without Ranger, in the ranger deck it shines. It is not uncommon to activate Shaman 3 times making them lose 6 using your turn and theirs.

The way you described Shaman is perfect by the way, it did exactly all that in my testings (extensive testing btw not just 10 games). Versus dredge, if you keep them off Bazaar, Shaman can lock them out early on.

Here is the thing though, people look at the card and assume it would be bad in multiples, this is wrong. It is even better in multiples (unless your opponents are idling all game long, which is NOT something they can afford against beats). You obviously want a slightly increased fetch amount, and 1 wastelands enables/ensures 2 Shaman activations.

Lastly, which follows a similar logic from last paragraph, you want to play Shaman with Dryads. Yes Dryad shuts down the second ability, but the second ability is not the most important ability, it is the mana acceleration that is most key because you are accelerating into your 2cc and 3cc hosers. The second ability comes into play after you established some board presence, it adds tremendously to the clock. It is important to have 8 main deck cards that hit Snapcaster, Y will and Dredge. And do splash damage to Fish and Oath. They actually supplement each other in the goal to disrupt your opponent.
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Smmenen
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2012, 06:27:45 pm »


I'm not sure why Shaman is so divisive and inspires such polarization, but people seem to have drawn battle-lines over this card.   I'm far more open to it than I think other people, and I think the discussion between Kevin and myself in this podcast frames that debate well.   I think the 2 life swing one way or the other matters, and I think I've made myself clear on that point in this podcast. 
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2012, 08:55:45 pm »

Nice job on the podcast gentlemen. I liked the history of Burning Long; it brought back memories. I'm surprised with the fascination with Nivmagus. I don't see the appeal. If it turns out I'm wrong then so be it, I just don't get how this card is even close to Vintage playable. Aren't Quirion Dryad, Kiln Fiend, and Psychatog just better?


This is a really fair question, but the difference between all of those cards and Nivmagus is really notable: Nivmagus costs 1 mana.   In a deck that naturally has or can support 4 Flusterstorm, it is a brutal and nasty combo.   A 9 power creature for 1 mana and 1 other spell can, I think, cross over the line of Vintage playability.




I think it could have a serious home in either RUG Delver or in an even more aggressive UR Delver list.    I think a tempo deck with 4 Flusterstorm, 4 Bolt, 4 Nivmagus, 4 Delver, and 4 Snapcaster could be insane.  Snapcaster can flashback both Flusterstorm to pump Nivmagus or Bolt to clear the way for a lethal attack.  

Thanks for the positive feedback.  I thought this was one of our beter podcasts. It turned out really well.

There's.already a twelve power creature.for one mana and one other spell, and it sees no play. Stifle is better vs shops than Flusterstorm, being able to counter a Wasteland or Strip Mine or Forgemaster activation, so you'd.think if a.two-card combo that produces something huge were good, Stiflenaught might see some play.
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2012, 09:01:54 pm »

Nice job on the podcast gentlemen. I liked the history of Burning Long; it brought back memories. I'm surprised with the fascination with Nivmagus. I don't see the appeal. If it turns out I'm wrong then so be it, I just don't get how this card is even close to Vintage playable. Aren't Quirion Dryad, Kiln Fiend, and Psychatog just better?


This is a really fair question, but the difference between all of those cards and Nivmagus is really notable: Nivmagus costs 1 mana.   In a deck that naturally has or can support 4 Flusterstorm, it is a brutal and nasty combo.   A 9 power creature for 1 mana and 1 other spell can, I think, cross over the line of Vintage playability.




I think it could have a serious home in either RUG Delver or in an even more aggressive UR Delver list.    I think a tempo deck with 4 Flusterstorm, 4 Bolt, 4 Nivmagus, 4 Delver, and 4 Snapcaster could be insane.  Snapcaster can flashback both Flusterstorm to pump Nivmagus or Bolt to clear the way for a lethal attack.  

Thanks for the positive feedback.  I thought this was one of our beter podcasts. It turned out really well.

There's.already a twelve power creature.for one mana and one other spell, and it sees no play. Stifle is better vs shops than Flusterstorm, being able to counter a Wasteland or Strip Mine or Forgemaster activation, so you'd.think if a.two-card combo that produces something huge were good, Stiflenaught might see some play.
Naugth dies to ancient grudge and claim. Also it two for ones you on a misstep/flusterstorm from the opponent that's the issue with it. Its not that a 2 card 12/12 is bad. By comparison Nivmagus is relatively resilient.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 09:05:49 pm by hvndr3d y34r h3x » Logged

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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2012, 01:01:31 am »


I'm not sure why Shaman is so divisive and inspires such polarization, but people seem to have drawn battle-lines over this card.   I'm far more open to it than I think other people, and I think the discussion between Kevin and myself in this podcast frames that debate well.   I think the 2 life swing one way or the other matters, and I think I've made myself clear on that point in this podcast.  
It matters a lot actually, which I also pointed out. I believe I provided a bit more accuracy on how the card works and added to that debate you guys had.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 02:08:43 am by Guli » Logged

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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2012, 05:19:17 am »

Nivmagus can't really be compared with Dreadnought. Nivmagus does not need another spell to exist, it's not hit by artifact hate, would usually be far smaller than Dread, can be pitched to fow (relevant!)... I have great hopes in it, even I won't play him by the moment.

Shaman requires great skill to play him and crete a properly deck. It's mandatory to play wastes (or at least lots of fetches) and get a very controlling role imho. unexperienced players would have trouble playing him, but could be a great 1CC because of its versatility
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2012, 05:23:12 am »

Having played a lot with Nivmagus the last few weeks, I can assure you that the guy is a beast! I'm looking forward to see someone taking a tournament win by surprise with him, because it will happen. It's only a matter of time.

The great thing about Nivmagus is that he can take different roles from game to game. One game you just get him out there and take a control role and he stays a 1/2 for a few turns until he grows to a 3/4 and perhaps a 5/6 and slowly wins the game.

Other games you "combo out" at the end of your opponents turn because of a counter war over something like Ancestral. The amazing thing is that you don't even need to win that counter war. Example: you play Ancestral, your opponent Missteps, you Misstep back, he Forces, you Fluster, he Flusters, you exile Ancestral, Misstep and the 5 Fluster copies, making your Nivmagus a 15/16 and puts your opponent on a 1 turn clock.

I've tried it in different builds, but I think the best build for it is in a UR tempo shell, like the one Stephen proposed. Starting out with 4 Nivmagus, 4 Snapcaster, 4 Delver, Lightning Bolt, 4 Flusterstorm and go from there. At the moment I'm testing with 4 Mental Misstep and 4 Gush and I've been very satisfied with that so far.

The above example actually reminded me of a recent game played online.

The board state is that I have Nivmagus (1/2) on table alongside 2 lands and Lotus. My opponent is on 18 life (1 damage from Nivmagus, 1 from a fetchland) and plays Mox, Confidant on his second turn. At the end step I crack Lotus and flash in Vendilion letting him keep his hand I then Lightning Bolt Confidant, Misstep my Bolt and Flusterstorm my Bolt. I proceed to exile Misstep and the 6 copies of Flusterstorm making Nivmagus a 15/16 and I then attack for 18 damage next turn with Clique and Nivmagus.

Of course this is an unique scenario but it shows how explosive Nivmagus can be.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 05:56:37 am by StanleyAugust » Logged
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2012, 06:58:05 am »

Smemnen, is there a reason why old content (at least ~1-3 months) isn't free?

I buy articles from time to time, and i found an old article, buy paying 5 bucks for half a year old article doesn't makes sense to me.
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2012, 07:01:10 am »

I think we are probably much less dismissive of new ideas or technology than many if not most Vintage commentators -- or, at least, I hope I am.  I spoke up for some cards in this set, as I have in the past (like Baleful Strix). 

But ultimately, it is far more important to be accurate than it is to appear open-minded.  I'm not going to predict a card to appear in Top 8s -- even if I think it's playable in theory -- if I don't actually expect it to do so.   

You certainly are quite open-minded, no doubt about it.  Although you do speak to accuracy, there is a meta effect by players that may have attached themselves to a card, hearing "mmm, one top eight at most" and picturing themselves being that top eight.  With the availability of Vintage-specific podcasts incredibly low, and the quality of this one so high, you'll certainly influence the Vintage subset with your commentary.
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2012, 11:49:01 am »

Having played a lot with Nivmagus the last few weeks, I can assure you that the guy is a beast! I'm looking forward to see someone taking a tournament win by surprise with him, because it will happen. It's only a matter of time.

The great thing about Nivmagus is that he can take different roles from game to game. One game you just get him out there and take a control role and he stays a 1/2 for a few turns until he grows to a 3/4 and perhaps a 5/6 and slowly wins the game.

Other games you "combo out" at the end of your opponents turn because of a counter war over something like Ancestral. The amazing thing is that you don't even need to win that counter war. Example: you play Ancestral, your opponent Missteps, you Misstep back, he Forces, you Fluster, he Flusters, you exile Ancestral, Misstep and the 5 Fluster copies, making your Nivmagus a 15/16 and puts your opponent on a 1 turn clock.

I've tried it in different builds, but I think the best build for it is in a UR tempo shell, like the one Stephen proposed. Starting out with 4 Nivmagus, 4 Snapcaster, 4 Delver, Lightning Bolt, 4 Flusterstorm and go from there. At the moment I'm testing with 4 Mental Misstep and 4 Gush and I've been very satisfied with that so far.

The above example actually reminded me of a recent game played online.

The board state is that I have Nivmagus (1/2) on table alongside 2 lands and Lotus. My opponent is on 18 life (1 damage from Nivmagus, 1 from a fetchland) and plays Mox, Confidant on his second turn. At the end step I crack Lotus and flash in Vendilion letting him keep his hand I then Lightning Bolt Confidant, Misstep my Bolt and Flusterstorm my Bolt. I proceed to exile Misstep and the 6 copies of Flusterstorm making Nivmagus a 15/16 and I then attack for 18 damage next turn with Clique and Nivmagus.

Of course this is an unique scenario but it shows how explosive Nivmagus can be.

This is exactly what I thought.   Fluster is obviously the combo, and Snapcaster gives you more Flusters at a larger storm.   

Someone on twitter had the interesting idea of also using replicate spells.   You can even play Shat Sprees maindeck if you want, or Gigadrowse.

I also agree UR.   

I think this card could bring UR Delver to Vintage. 
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2012, 10:42:15 am »

Having played a lot with Nivmagus the last few weeks, I can assure you that the guy is a beast! I'm looking forward to see someone taking a tournament win by surprise with him, because it will happen. It's only a matter of time.

The great thing about Nivmagus is that he can take different roles from game to game. One game you just get him out there and take a control role and he stays a 1/2 for a few turns until he grows to a 3/4 and perhaps a 5/6 and slowly wins the game.

Other games you "combo out" at the end of your opponents turn because of a counter war over something like Ancestral. The amazing thing is that you don't even need to win that counter war. Example: you play Ancestral, your opponent Missteps, you Misstep back, he Forces, you Fluster, he Flusters, you exile Ancestral, Misstep and the 5 Fluster copies, making your Nivmagus a 15/16 and puts your opponent on a 1 turn clock.

I've tried it in different builds, but I think the best build for it is in a UR tempo shell, like the one Stephen proposed. Starting out with 4 Nivmagus, 4 Snapcaster, 4 Delver, Lightning Bolt, 4 Flusterstorm and go from there. At the moment I'm testing with 4 Mental Misstep and 4 Gush and I've been very satisfied with that so far.

The above example actually reminded me of a recent game played online.

The board state is that I have Nivmagus (1/2) on table alongside 2 lands and Lotus. My opponent is on 18 life (1 damage from Nivmagus, 1 from a fetchland) and plays Mox, Confidant on his second turn. At the end step I crack Lotus and flash in Vendilion letting him keep his hand I then Lightning Bolt Confidant, Misstep my Bolt and Flusterstorm my Bolt. I proceed to exile Misstep and the 6 copies of Flusterstorm making Nivmagus a 15/16 and I then attack for 18 damage next turn with Clique and Nivmagus.

Of course this is an unique scenario but it shows how explosive Nivmagus can be.

This is exactly what I thought.   Fluster is obviously the combo, and Snapcaster gives you more Flusters at a larger storm.  

Someone on twitter had the interesting idea of also using replicate spells.   You can even play Shat Sprees maindeck if you want, or Gigadrowse.

I also agree UR.  

I think this card could bring UR Delver to Vintage.  

Yes, I've been testing Shattering Spree as well and I think that 1 maindeck and 1 sideboard is a good constellation. I didn't even know of the card Gigadrowse. It looks pretty cute, clearing the path for a Nivmagus swing, pumping it along the way, but other than that it looks a bit underwhelming.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2012, 01:19:48 am by StanleyAugust » Logged
Smmenen
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2012, 12:32:25 pm »

The specifics aren't really that important -- it's the general idea that you can generate a quite large Elemental by the second turn, sufficient to win the game the next turn quite easily. 

I will be interested to see which kind of the UR Delver/Elemental lists emerge in upcoming Top 8s. 
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2012, 01:12:06 pm »

Going in with Guli on Shaman.  I think you're both underselling it.  Steve started thinking about it during the set review, but I think he missed his OWN key insight about how hatebear decks work.  Back in 2009, he wrote a very good article explaining the possibility of GW (later revised to GWb) beats in Vintage.  It's over here:

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/17429_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Vintage_on_a_Budget_GW_Beatdown.html

Throughout this article, Steve's main point was that you cannot win in Vintage if your creatures just turn sidewise.  You must be disrupting with each play to stay alive against the vicious combo and prison decks of the format.  The key was to find cards that both disrupted in ways that matter to Vintage fast enough to compete with the win conditions of others and could also be win conditions otherwise.  He makes a similar point repeatedly in his Guide to Aggro in Vintage from this year.   In both articles, Steve spends alot of time canvassing hate bears (2/x for 2 that disrupt) but very little time dealing with acceleration specifically.  

I think this is a huge hole for beats decks that needs to be filled.  We have plenty of large undercosted threats (Goyf, KotR, Ooze, etc) and we have lots of mid-size bears that disrupt.  The bottleneck is acceleration.  Right now, there are only three accelerating creatures worth talking about: Heirarch, Simian Spirit Guide, and Elvish Spirit Guide.  And note that even though Steve mentions Noble Hierarch as a playable in Green in his beats article, then never actually puts out a play list with Hierarchic in the 75!  All three of these guys give you some mix of power attacking and mana acceleration, with the Spirit Guides giving you more power in exchange for being an either-or situation.  NONE of them disrupt.

That's why I think there's a huge place for Deathrite Shaman.  Deathrite acellerates, disrupts, AND beats.  He gives you a boost very similar to Hierarch, but then he adds 2 to your attacking total late game instead of 1.  He can't give you G on turn 1 like Spirit Guide can, but in return he sticks around all game.  Of course, his limitation is the contents of both graveyards.  So, to canvas the possibilities:

Simian / Elvish Spirit Guides - Very fast acceleration, but one-shot; can choose instead to have a Grey Ogre later.
Noble Heirarch - 1 additional W/U/G mana each turn, summoning sickness, and one additional power to any attacking creature right away.
Deathrite Shaman - 1 additional B/G mana each turn, summoning sickness, disrupts graveyards, pings or gains life, but all abilities conditional.

Given a deck that can live with acceleration that doesn't give you U, I think Deathrite is at least competitive with the Spirit Guides and outclasses Hierarch.  [EDIT: This is a dumb thing to say since he can make all colors.  Thank you, poster below me!]

If you do run Shaman in your beats deck, you have an interesting vulnerability to graveyard hate that you wouldn't normally have.  That's true.  Still, if I'm planning to win by turning 2/x's sideways, having my opponent waste a card to hate my yard doesn't sound like it's all bad.  Plus, since he can operate off the opponent's yard too, the only yard hate he's really scared of are things like Rest in Peace and Planar Void anyway.

Since Shaman likes cards in the yard, I wonder if he works with another beater that has not yet come into his own, Vinelasher Kudzu?  Been trying to find a home for him for quite some time.  Turn 1 Shaman, Turn 2 fetch, cast Kudzu, crack fetch, crop rotation for fetch, fetch = you have a 4/4 and can start pinging for an additional 2 damage next turn.  That's fun.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 10:24:18 am by MaximumCDawg » Logged
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2012, 12:50:57 am »

Ok, ok.  Put your money where your mouth is:  how many Deathrite Shaman to expect will appear in Vintage Top 8s by the time of the next set's pre-release?   You have our predictions.   Now put your money on the line.

And, btw, I said that to see play in Vintage, creatures have to be either disruptive OR a source of either mana or card advantage, excepting Goyf. 
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2012, 01:58:07 am »


Simian / Elvish Spirit Guides - Very fast acceleration, but one-shot; can choose instead to have a Grey Ogre later.
Noble Heirarch - 1 additional W/U/G mana each turn, summoning sickness, and one additional power to any attacking creature right away.
Deathrite Shaman - 1 additional B/G mana each turn, summoning sickness, disrupts graveyards, pings or gains life, but all abilities conditional.

Given a deck that can live with acceleration that doesn't give you U, I think Deathrite is at least competitive with the Spirit Guides and outclasses Hierarch.  


? Shaman costs B/G, but if there's a land in a graveyard, he produces any color...  {W} {U} {B} {R} {G}
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2012, 10:18:34 am »

? Shaman costs B/G, but if there's a land in a graveyard, he produces any color...  {W} {U} {B} {R} {G}

True dat, sorry.  Confused the casting cost with the mana it produces briefly.  The ability to make U is HUGE, and I'm having a hard time seeing how you want Heirarch over this guy for any reason other than Cold-Eyed Selkie anymore.

Ok, ok.  Put your money where your mouth is:  how many Deathrite Shaman to expect will appear in Vintage Top 8s by the time of the next set's pre-release?   You have our predictions.   Now put your money on the line.

I don't have access to the information necessary to pick a number, since I havn't poured over the recent top 8 data like you.  I can tell you how I'd estimate this, though.  I'd look at how many G/W, G/R, and Noble Fish type decks were appearing in top 8s and probably peg my guess at about the number of those decks.  Like you do with Burning Wish, I bet it will take a bit of time to really catch on, so I figure 1/4 of the players who like decks that could benefit from him will run a playset.  Something like that.

And, btw, I said that to see play in Vintage, creatures have to be either disruptive OR a source of either mana or card advantage, excepting Goyf. 

You did, but your main point (Goyf excepted, and now perhaps Delver too) was that a creature being an efficient beater is not enough, alone.  Your beatz options in Vintage are restricted to those creatures that disrupt in addition to beating.  Until Deathrite, we did not have that choice with mana producers.  Spirit Guides and Heirarch don't disrupt.  Deathrite increases the disruption density of beatz deck in a whole new dimension - the mana acceleration - where it never existed before.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 10:22:33 am by MaximumCDawg » Logged
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2012, 11:09:58 am »

Re: Shaman - I keep thinking it costs 2+b/g for some reason. Then I remember that it costs B/G alone. And I freak out.
THE CARD IS BAARRROKKKEEENNN, PEOPLE.
I play Blue, and I am REALLY tempted to make a deck with this as the starting point:
4x Deathrite
4x Dryad Militant

So.... maybe I'm going to go make BUG Fish now....
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TEAM TOP DECK INSURRECTION-luck draws...fukin luck draws
Vintage Master of Princeton @ SWC
Fuck your horse and the couch you rode in on
MaximumCDawg
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2012, 09:00:50 pm »

Re: Shaman - I keep thinking it costs 2+b/g for some reason. Then I remember that it costs B/G alone. And I freak out.

I don't doubt it.  I've read your articles.  A colorshifted Healing Salve would cause you to freak out. Wink
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Smmenen
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2012, 01:02:49 am »


Ok, ok.  Put your money where your mouth is:  how many Deathrite Shaman to expect will appear in Vintage Top 8s by the time of the next set's pre-release?   You have our predictions.   Now put your money on the line.

I don't have access to the information necessary to pick a number, since I havn't poured over the recent top 8 data like you.  I can tell you how I'd estimate this, though.  

That's a cop out.   Take a stab at it.   You can go back and see what kind of cards appear in what kind of ratios in top 8s based upon our evaluations.   You can even search Morphling.de

Make a prediction.  Grow some gonads Smile
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desolutionist
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« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2012, 07:40:06 pm »

Shaman is like a new age Stormscape Apprentice.  I predict 0 top8s because of Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, and Griselbrand.
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MaximumCDawg
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« Reply #26 on: October 19, 2012, 10:22:51 am »

Shaman is like a new age Stormscape Apprentice.  I predict 0 top8s because of Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, and Griselbrand.

Shaman is easier to cast, cheaper to activate, fills a totally different niche, and does more damage than Stormscape. 

@Steve: Fine, I'll make a prediction.  I just have to find time to go over the historical top 8 appearances of beats decks using other acceleration this year.  As I said, I dont have this data at my fingertips like you guys do.  So, maybe I'll get a number this weekend.
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Guli
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« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2012, 05:04:51 pm »

Does it all come down to top 8 appearances? It is clear that Shaman is more than playable in Vintage. My prediction is that it will maybe be in a top 8 here and there. Limited appearance. Just like GW beats or Noble Fish is making appearances.

I would like to pose another question: How will the Burning Wish/Oath/Griselbrand versions affect the metagame? Will it change the number of Workshop and Dredge lists? What happens to Grixix control? Any other decks that might pop up in reaction/anticipation? I am trying to envision the new meta. Less shop, dredge to turbo mode, heavy control like remora or landstill with Traps?
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LSD25
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« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2012, 02:28:51 pm »

shaman decreases goyf size, so i would think people would use this against goyf.  most of the decks i think shaman could have a home in play goyf... so its hard to imagine morte than a few good pilots trying this for shits n giggles making top 8 with this as a 3/4 of.

i think the elemental might start taking delver spots in decks for a while.  not viable for storm tricks.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2012, 03:05:41 pm by LSD25 » Logged
Smmenen
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« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2012, 02:39:08 pm »

The Modern Pro Tour finalist use Deathrite Shaman in a deck with Goyfs.  FYI
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