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[AmbivalentDuck]

This is a configuration I have found to be useful over many years of testing and play, and have yet to lose a match to Dredge with it.  Consequently, I see little incentive to change.

The odds hardly favor that continuing to be true. I mean, what are the odds that you actually have a 100% match percentage against Dredge?

[Grand Inquisitor]

Fetch, Sapphire, Recall, Gush, FoW, Preordain, MM

...No, you wouldn't keep that hand.

Really?  I'd like to hear more, since I think dredge mulls are fascinating.

I'm assuming Grow is on the play here.  I'd open up with sapphire>ancestral.  Then you have fetch>preordain if nothing more interesting turns up.  At this point you have already seen up to 6 new cards.  Then you can gush on turn 2.

So this is what the hand has going for it:
(1) you see up to 6 additional cards turn 1 with up to 9 by turn 2
(2) you have two forms of counter in case you find hate and want to protect it
(3) you can spend turn 1 setting up and have lots of mana on turn 2 to find/cast hate

Eg, with either VT or DT you can easily set up Lotus>Leyline (if you find one or the other) on the 2nd turn.  There's many other lines that include additional moxen or time walk that make it very easy to leverage the cards you see.  All of this can happen before dredge wins and with protection.

Why isn't this a keep?

[Smmenen]

I'm not sure there is a way to quantify the answer, but the basic gist is that it's too high of a risk.   When general when playing Gush decks, I'm not going to keep a hand against Dredge that doesn't have a Leyline, Jailer, Fastbond, a Tutor or a Tinker (and the mana to play it on turn 1).  Ancestral isn't even close to cutting it.  It could draw 5 cards and I'm not sure it would be good enough.  

Dredge focuses the range of relevant tactics so narrowly and generates so much more card advantage that Ancestral is lame by comparison.

I have great respect for Dredge as an unstoppable machine.  And I view cards like T. Crypt and Extraction and Extirpate as mere speed bumps.  Using the metaphor of speed, the main thing I do is focus on comparative deck speed.  I was playing Burning Tendrils at the NYSE and beat Dredge twice 2-0, but that's because my deck is faster.  Gush decks are slower.  Any slower deck needs more than speed bump answers to reliably beat dredge.

One thing to bear in mind is that there is almost no room for error.  You won't likely win game 1 which means you can't risk losing either game 2 or 3.  Temporary answers aren't good enough, imo. 

[Grand Inquisitor]

Dredge focuses the range of relevant tactics so narrowly and generates so much more card advantage that Ancestral is lame by comparison.

I appreciate this.

More succinctly than above: in the proposed hand you see the same 6 cards and you're trading the additional resources (mox, land, fow, misstep, gush) for the problem that you have to cast leyline or jailer if you draw them.

If mulling to 6 is indeed still better, this seems to show either the Leyline strategy or the Dredge matchup as a dire proposition.

I think either 6 dredge slots is not enough, leyline isn't the right card, or the option to keep that 6 demands more consideration.

[Smmenen]

It depends on how you look at.  I look at it differently than other people, in my experience.

When deciding which anti-Dredge cards are best in a metagame, I think people should start with this simple formula:

Step 1: Examine what Dredge players are using in the maindecks or sideboards as disruption.  There are clear trends that can be examined.  This can be done by creating an average or composite Dredge list.

Step 2: create a chart that determines which anti-Dredge cards are most to least susceptible to Dredge's current configuration of hate using absolute numbers.

Step 3: select the cards that are least susceptible.

Because Leyline cannot be stripped by Discard, like Cabal Therapy or Unmask, becuase it is played before the game begins, Leyline of the Void is and will always be one of the best anti-Dredge cards.   Leyline is the mathmatically strongest and most reslient anti-dredge tactic.   I realize that can be a narrow way to look at it, but it is the most important, I believe.

Once that's done, I tend to look at things like relative clock (as mentioned above), ease of use, etc.  

Since the unrestriction of Gush in 2010, I've ran this basic configuration of anti-Dredge spells in Gush decks:

4 Leyline
1 Jailer
1 Tormod's Crypt (if I run Tinker) or 2nd Jailer

As I said earlier, I have yet to lose a match to Dredge in a tournament with a Gush deck in that time, and I've written tournament reports for almost every tournament I play in.   I played Gush continuously from its unrestriction until the Vintage Championship last year.   At that point, I switched to Burning Tendrils/Long combo, and have only just switched back to Gush with the printing of Pyromancer.  

It's not that the matchup is that dire -- it's not, it's just that you have to be smart about what you are doing.  It's easy to overthink yourself, and lose focus on what really matters.  That's when people start losing to dredge again.

There is nothing wrong with more anti-dredge cards, but I think the basic formula for non-Doomsday Gush decks is:

6 Dredge cards
7 Workshop cards
2 Anti-combo/control tactics

[warr]

I can vouch for Gush needing hate in the opener to beat Dredge, having gambled on an otherwise decent looking 7 and lost.

One other silver lining is that this list has is a more robust Gush engine that closes out the game faster once you drop an early hate piece and creatures that provide an increasing clock.  I've played other slower Gush control decks and durdled long enough for a skilled Dredge player with enough anti-hate to draw into it and beat me.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Step 1: Examine what Dredge players are using in the maindecks or sideboards as disruption.
Step 2: create a chart that determines which anti-Dredge cards are most to least susceptible to Dredge's current configuration of hate using absolute numbers.
Step 3: select the cards that are least susceptible.

So I did this on the 10 most recent Dredge T8s as an example.  Here's the results with an anti-dredge SB card getting +1 for each reactive dredge card they dodged*.  Here are the results:

97   Yixlid Jailer
89   Leyline of the Void
81   Rest in Peace
36   Grafdigger Cage

...Granted this is a small sample and a limited analysis, but given how well Jailer performed, and that it dramatically increases the mulligan options, would you reconsider?  How often do you SB Leyline vs. non-dredge decks?

*
(1) I combined all reactive cards both MD and SB in the dredge lists
(2) I removed things I deemed impertinent, eg, leyline of the void, tormod's crypt, petrified field
(3) I didn't count Cabal Therapy since it's played in every dredge list.  This could represent an undervaluing of Leyline as an option, but the dredge player basically has to both forego playing bazaar turn 1 and have to blind guess your jailer/grafdigger/RiP
(4) I didn't address the Divining Witch board plan which was played in some of the SBs.  I think this is worth discussing, but a different conversation.

[Tempus]

How is Grafdigger's Cage on there, but Nihil Spellbomb and Tormod's Crypt is not, being itself a CMC 1 artifact? Or did you only consider permanent options?

[Grand Inquisitor]

Spellbomb/Crypt are represented by grafdiggers.  Obviously Ravenous Trap, etc are very different and have been shown to be potent.  Here I just wanted a limited example and something that was more apples-apples with what Steve was contending.

[Grand Inquisitor]

...also, I think it's conventional wisdom that if you can stick one of these permanent effects you're in a better position than in trying to string together 2-3 crypt effects, which are often necessary to win that matchup.

[Smmenen]

The difference is that * I do * count Cabal Therapy and Unmask. Leyline can't be touched by either.  That bumps Leyline to the top.

In any case, it shows that the two cards I use are the best  

[Smmenen]

I made Top 8 at the Vacaville Tournament this past weekend with this deck again.  It's the real deal.  I see others have had similar success.   

I played Dredge in round 2, and the combination of Leyline + Jailer was simply too much for them to overcome.  In the second game I had turn 0 Leyline, and even though he Chained my Leyline, I was able to DT for Jailer, and get Jailer into play.  In the second game I opened with double Leyline and Force, and the game was never in doubt. 

[Smmenen]

I'm 3-0 so far in the Vintage DE today with this deck.  For larks, I've been playing this on MTGO, and the last two days I've been playing it I'm roughly 9-0 in matches in 2-man queues plus 3-0 in the daily event so far.  

I cut one Flusterstorm for a maindeck Pyroblast, and the two SB thoughtseize for two Pyroblasts, and the 2nd Jailer for the 4th Chewer, but it's otherwise the same as the deck I played in 2013.  This deck seems to do really well against Delver for whatever reason.  

No Dig, no Cruise, but it has a super consistent Gushbond combo kill, which is really nice.  

EDIT: I won my fourth match, but scooped my opponent into the event with lethal on the stack.

[enderfall]

I'm 3-0 so far in the Vintage DE today with this deck.  For larks, I've been playing this on MTGO, and the last two days I've been playing it I'm roughly 9-0 in matches in 2-man queues plus 3-0 in the daily event so far.  

I cut one Flusterstorm for a maindeck Pyroblast, and the two SB thoughtseize for two Pyroblasts, and the 2nd Jailer for the 4th Chewer, but it's otherwise the same as the deck I played in 2013.  This deck seems to do really well against Delver for whatever reason.  

No Dig, no Cruise, but it has a super consistent Gushbond combo kill, which is really nice.  

EDIT: I won my fourth match, but scooped my opponent into the event with lethal on the stack.

I am not surprised, i expect the Young Gushbond (Which i call it) to become the best deck. I would be curious to see your decklist. Also a bit surprised that you are not playing any delve cards.

I think Yawg Will is still such a vital aspect to the game plan that it makes playing just a single Delve card not really viable. I could be wrong because the Delve spells are certainly powerful, but their anti-synergy with Yawg Will is legit. 9/10, I'd tutor for Yawg Will over any Delve spell, which says a lot about the direction this deck wants to go. Besides, 4x Gush and 7x cantrips are still really good to enable a Storm kill and/or lethal Pyromancer swarm, which I suspect is why it has a good Delver match-up since Storm can simply go over the top of Delver.

[WhiteLotus]

I'm 3-0 so far in the Vintage DE today with this deck.  For larks, I've been playing this on MTGO, and the last two days I've been playing it I'm roughly 9-0 in matches in 2-man queues plus 3-0 in the daily event so far.  

I cut one Flusterstorm for a maindeck Pyroblast, and the two SB thoughtseize for two Pyroblasts, and the 2nd Jailer for the 4th Chewer, but it's otherwise the same as the deck I played in 2013.  This deck seems to do really well against Delver for whatever reason.  

No Dig, no Cruise, but it has a super consistent Gushbond combo kill, which is really nice.  

EDIT: I won my fourth match, but scooped my opponent into the event with lethal on the stack.

I am not surprised, i expect the Young Gushbond (Which i call it) to become the best deck. I would be curious to see your decklist. Also a bit surprised that you are not playing any delve cards.

I think Yawg Will is still such a vital aspect to the game plan that it makes playing just a single Delve card not really viable. I could be wrong because the Delve spells are certainly powerful, but their anti-synergy with Yawg Will is legit. 9/10, I'd tutor for Yawg Will over any Delve spell, which says a lot about the direction this deck wants to go. Besides, 4x Gush and 7x cantrips are still really good to enable a Storm kill and/or lethal Pyromancer swarm, which I suspect is why it has a good Delver match-up since Storm can simply go over the top of Delver.

You can easily play 1-2 dig without hurting the ywill kill too much. Cards like regrowth, counters, fetches and cantrips are an easy pitch to dig, that you can play eot tapping your coloress mana to pay part of the delve so you are not weakening your will too much. Imo the only cards you really dont want to pitch are lotus, Fastbond and Gushes.

[Smmenen]

Possibly, but I very much enjoy the tremendous selection potential of Regrowth without Delve cards.  I will Regrowth cards as mundane as a fetchland or a Preordain regularly.  With Dig, your range of Regrowth options narrows considerably.  And your Yawg Will are less explosive, since you eek out every single card when you play Will with Fastbond in your deck.

I have no doubt that alternative versions of this deck with Dig are fine, but Regrowth is often better than a Dig because it can recrur cards of much higher power level, like Time Walk, a countered Yawg Will, or Ancestral Recall.