I think that some are missing the point of the thread.  This is not supposed to be absolute; rather, it simply places the burden of proof on those who deviate from it.  Therefore not running Time Walk in Belcher is perfectly acceptable even if we have Time Walk in any blue deck as a truth, because those who omit it clearly have proved why it is not optimal.  Ditto with Will in Dragon.  Honestly, I think these rules maybe can help some of the lists that are considered suboptimal by the community by leading the creator to explain why he is breaking these rules, leading to productive discussion as opposed to "Arcbound Crusher sucks wtf!!" vs "I have won more power, therefore Crusher is optimal."

This card is probably way too good.  In limited, Fireball is a huge bomb, and this is a double Fireball.  Nothing betas a creature stall better than 14 or so points of burn to the face.  If you don't want to wait, kill their biggest creatures on turn 5 and 6 and swing in with all your early creatures a couple of times.  Also, take current T2 as an example of its bustedness.  As soon as the opp taps out for Meloku or Keiga, punish them by sending 10 points of burn to their face with one card.  This, in combination with anything at all, wins the game by itself and drops turn 4.

My short list of cards I would consider to fill the Brainstorm slots:
Bouncer
Thief
Negator
Jitte
or, my favorite: 1 Duress 1 Null Rod 1 Demonic Consultation.

Life is one of the most unused resource.  Leaving aside the issue that the deck can trade 5 life for a card a lot of the time, why would you not play a card as good as this one because of the 1/15 chance of dealing 5 damage to yourself during your upkeep?  Life points are almost irrelevant until you hit 0.  There is no issue with Confidant; his ability remains one of the strong points of the deck.  How strong he is is one of the reasons I am surprised at Standstill as a 4-of there.  It seems like the deck would benefit from some more substance to it, something like Jitte or something, if not over Standstill, than over Brainstorm at least.  If the blue card number is the problem, then Shadow of Doubt or more Stifle seem better.

@Dante:  What do you mean by Needle only winning against an unprepared list?

It seems like Rod is a gigantic bomb, so why not play 4?
Can you give us a mini-report on the performance, specifically the games you lost?
Specifically, what problems do you think the deck in the form you have it has?
Did running only 22 mana sources including Strips and Factories hurt you during the tournament?
It seems like the deck is really short on bodies compared to other UB Fish lists *and* doesn't play Jitte or Negator, so are you having any problems closing games out?
Why no Demonic Consultation?
Why the singleton Rushing River?
It seems like Pithing Needle is better at shutting off Welders than Darkblast, is extremely versatile, performing a huge variety of tasks in-game, can with a number of problem cards like Barbarian Ring, *and* pretty much auto-wins against Dragon and Belcher.  Why no SB slots?

Um, yeah.  That's a lot of questions.  I'm going to make myself sto pfor now.

Are you all really having that much of a problem with Drain?  With 4 Duress, 3 Cabal Therapy, and 4 Fiends (almost all the time) that come before Drain mana is up (except if they are on the play and have a Lotus or Sapphire), I think that the current list is extraordinarily resistant to Drain, certainly enough so that suboptimal cards don't need to be played to dodge Drain.

Mesmeric Fiend adds a body to swing and wear Jitte and very good (it is proactive) disruption.  I think it is a very strong card, while not sacred in the deck, I would not go under 9 at the very lowest targeted discard effects, and Therapy is notably worse without a preceding Duress/Fiend.  Pyroclasm on Fiend is pretty bad for you, but you still certainly can be in a good enough position to win.

Wretch is not a meta call AT ALL.  It is simply amazing.  Take the Control Slaver match.  It eliminates two of their three main routes to victory (Welder, a huge Will) singlehandedly.  Just shutting down Will and Welders would make him amazing, but he also pretty much autowins against Dragon, makes Gifts much less effective, and performs many other tasks that make him probably the best card in the deck.

Well, artifacts are only really a problem when they are creatures too.  This deck really tends to do fine against Stax.  The die roll is crucial in this game, but overall a lot of their cards just aren't that good against you, and all of your cards except Chains are really good against them.  I MD three Katakis (and would encourage others to play this bomb too) which helps too, but I have honestly found that Stax just isn't that huge of a problem.

Your deck is dramatically worse against everything, to put it bluntly.  Your effects dealing with Pyroclasm:
2x Bad Moon, 4x Duress.  My deck's effects dealing with Pyroclasm:  4x Duress, 3x Cabal Therapy, 3-4x Mesmeric Fiend.
Dealing with Darkblast:
Yours:  2x Bad Moon, 4 Wretch.  Mine:  3-4x Fiend, 4x Wretch.
Dealing with artifacts:
You run extra non-land and non-permanent mana sources, no Chalices, Darkblast instead of StP, Shamen instead of Kataki, Bad Moon and Yawgwill instead of Cabal Therapy, and hate in Heretic that, while definitely better against artifacts than Chains, still is narrower and less effective than DT -> any number of bombs.

I can dissect the list's flaws more if you need me to, but in a summary, you have cut staples of the deck, good against everything and necessary for the deck, for narrow hosers that are worse than others we have available and 5 mana slots.

You have 11 effects to take Pyroclasm out of their hand, so I wouldn't be THAT worried about it, and certainly not enough to add Wretched Anurid.  I'd cut those for 3 Confidants and a Rod, cut something for the last Chains, and cut two swamps for a Jet and a Lotus, and maybe another one for a Petal.

I strongly prefer 17 creatures and 25 mana sources.  The reason 14 or 15 creatures is acceptable is the presence of Jitte regularly, but the toolbox deck forsakes that for the ability to pay two cards to get a disenchant effect.  Don't get me wrong, I see the power of tutors, but it seems to me that you are dropping better all-around cards for these cards, cards that oftencome with tempo and CA losses.  The only relevant thing that toolbox does that 3x Swords 3x Jitte (or Kataki if you prefer) 1x Chains 1x Consultation 1x DT 1x Shadow of Doubt doesn't do 100 times more effectively is, well, nothing that I can really think of.  The less toolboxy configuration hates more effectively, streamlines the deck, wins faster, and doesn't make you pay 2 cards in an already ridiculously draw-light deck in order to get an effect.  I can elaborate on this if anyone wants me to.

Re: Null Rod:  It is a ridiculous bomb, to be sure.  It would require reconfiguration of a lot of the deck but I think it wouldn't be bad.  I would definitely play Shadow of Doubt md in that deck.

Whatever Works:  The white version is not "just plain weaker" than the blue version.  The deck you played at Waterbury was way different than this one, so explanations and evaluations of more card choices would be nice, and your results certainly lend credence to whatever you say, but broad, dismissive generalizations help no one.

Lunar:  Vamp is horrible, at least pre-sb, because a ton of the time, there won't be an effect worth paying 2 cards, 2 life, and its mana cost plus B for.

War:  Factory hurts the manabase's stability a huge amount, but it still is worth testing as a 2 or 3-of.
Nantuko Shade sucks up all your mana, preventing you from playing threats or disruption. You are the control deck in almost every matchup and therefore this is horrible for you.  Negator is awesome, but obviously, if you commonly see Lightning Bolts, don't play him.  Otherwise, he is an insane beating against every top-tier deck.

Ozymadias:  Samurai isn't that good.  It stops Welding decently, and Crucible, which are both good, but as the White deck is now, even if he was 1W, there would be room for at most 2-3 of him, and there are probably better ways to fill those slots.


The idea of a tutor toolbox seems good, but in practice, it makes the deck a lot more clunky.  Also, running 14 creatures and no Jittes is probably 2-3 too few cards that actually win.  There really is no problem with cutting a StP for a Demonic Consultation, because that card, costing one mana, can efficiently search for a tons of bombs even without the toolbox.  IMO the two-mana cost of Demonic makes it too much of a tempo loss to play.

Also, Orchard Mox Oath was never game on the play.  You have 15 effects that stop that on the play plus 4 Swords.

Edit:  Lunar, I understand, I was just voicing my opinion which related to your post.

Mana (25)
4x Swamp
3x Scrubland
4x Polluted Delta
3x Bloodstained Mire
1x Pearl
1x Jet
1x Lotus
1x Petal
4x Waste
1x Strip
2x Dark Ritual

Creatures (17)
3x Kataki
4x Negator
4x Wretch
3x Fiend
3x Confidant

Spells (19)
4x Chalice
4x Duress
4x Chains
4x Swords
3x Cabal Therapy

SB:
4x Shadow of Doubt
1x Kataki
1x Kami of Ancient Law
2x Disenchant
3x Jitte
4x Pithing Needle

or

Mana (25)
4x Vial
4x Swamp
1x Island
2x Underground Sea
4x Polluted Delta
3x Bloodstained Mire
4x Moxen
1x Lotus
2x Dark Rit

Creatures (18)
3x Waterfront Bouncer
4x Dark Confidant
3x Negator
4x Wretch
4x Fiend

Spells (18)
4x Duress
4x Chains
4x Chalice
2x Jitte
1x Time Walk
1x Ancestral
2x Cabal Therapy

SB:
4x Shadow of Doubt
4x Energy Flux
1x Waterfront Bouncer
1x Demonic Consultation
4x Pithing Needle
1x Demonic Tutor

Both of these are 61 cards, cut one of whatever you want.  The first list cuts Vials, which aren't that great in that deck, and suck with Kataki.  Both are pretty straightforward other than that, although note the 4 Pithing Needles in both which I think are absolutely necessary as a 4-of SB card.  The tutors in the side of the 2nd deck aren't great at all MD, but shine when you have a more singleminded gameplan (find and play Energy Flux, or find and resolve Waterfront Bouncer, or set Pithing Needle on Bazaar, etc.)  Daze is a card which I would love to play ini the 2nd list.

Both of these lists, IMO, are almost strictly superior to mono-B.

Those don't solve your problem, they make you a bad control deck.  There is no problem with Chalice of the Void.  Keg/EE for 0 blows 9 cards in our deck up, so they disrupt us as much as them.  Hunted Horror really really is no good at all without out these cards, and if we were playing a mediocre two card combo, we would play MaskNaught.  Coretapper sucks, period.

Splashes really help solve all your problems, whether you play StP and Kataki or Flux/Bouncer.  Daze might also be a good choice, as it aallows you to keep tapping your mana to play stuff while still putting up a counterwall.

To reiterate, the problem with the deck isn't that it looks like or is Sui, because it really plays way better cards than the Sui of old times, the problem is that it shares Sui's problem of dealing with permanents, and splashes help that.

Blue gives you Ancestral, TW maindeck but the most important thing is Flux/Rebuild and Waterfront Bouncer sb.  Waterfront Bouncer is a good maindeck choice too IMO, because it effectively deals with the deck's main weakness.  The choice of extra Moxen/Rituals isn't a huge deal, as Chalice doesn't affect them if youo just play them first, and drawing them late- and mid-game, even with a Chalice out, if almost the same because you will rarely need mana then.

I'd maybe cut a Negator for another Dark Confidant, because Negators, especially without Rituals, really can clog the hand up.   Also, you really need to play 6 fetches if you are going to splash.

If you play white, obviously StPs are really really good for the same reason that Waterfront Bouncers are, only without the summoning sickness and discard (Bouncers can be Vialed, though).  Also, Kataki is worth looking into for a 3-of creature slot.  It really is amazing against everything.  I'm not sure if Weathered Wayfarer is good or not, but i certainly warrants testing.  The deck probably doesn't have the space for tutors -> Crucible though.

I love Negators.  The top three decks all have problems dealing with him.  If you are playing against a lot of Fish, leave him out, but most people aren't.

Moxen are really good.  The 4th Chains IMO is way more important than the 4th Cabal Therapy, since you already have no trouble emptying their original hand, but you want to keep them from refilling it.  I prefer a third Confidant to the 25th mana source, also.  For the sb, Pithing Needle >>>>>>>>>> Darkblast.  I'll elaborate on that if you want me to, but I think it's pretty obvious.
  Splashing still leaves you with a rock-solid manabase.  Just a tiny splash of blue, adding only Time Walk, Ancestral, and Rebuild/Waterfront Bouncer sb improves your matchups across the board.  Rebuild is so good here, because it makes Chalices on the draw and newly drawn Chalices extremely relevant, and it lets Duress, Cabal Therapy, and Mesmeric Fiend equal Vindicates.  The only requirement is like 1 or 2 basics becoming nonbasics, but even still, 23/25 of your mana is non-Wastable, and them Wasting your land isn't even that bad, because your curve is really low, you run acceleration and Vials, and it kills one of their lands.  The other potential splash is White, which gives you STP and again, a vastly improved sb which improves all your matchups.  These splashes also open up room for experimenting with cards such as Daze that help the deck's vulnerability to topdecks.

So basically, if Stax goes first, it is not game one, and you have no Vial or Negator, they have Chalice + 4 mana, and they are smart enough to play Chalice at two, you are hurt.  Even so, your disruption is still effective, and, while it looks bleak, you can occasionally squeeze out a win.  The only non-creature spells that it hits post-SB are Null Rods and Jittes.  Also, if you fear Stax that much, SB Rebuild, it's really really good here.

EDIT:
Withered Wretch is an auto-4-of, and consider Thirst for Knowledge and Gifts Ungiven when you think about why it is so much better than Skullsnatcher.

A splash is painless and helpful.  6-7 Fetches are good anyway.  In an environment with blockers this deck sucks anyway, so Confidant is way way better than Skirge.  You look to play really quick disruption/threats and as such, your hand empties quickly.  The 4th Chains really is more important that the 4th Cabal Therapy.  Vamp sucks because of the card disadvantage.  Withered Wretch is your best creature by 3465463476754 miles.  Play 4.  The SB IMO should be:
4x Shadow of Doubt
4x Pithing Needle
3x Null Rod (If you stay unpowered)
1x Jitte
4 (or 7 without Null Rod) cards from your splash color.

Back to the splash, there is no reason whatsoever not to splash white or blue and improve your matchups across the board, even if only to add StP or Stifle MD, because it doesn't hurt at all and drastically improves your SB.

Also, shouldn't we be discussing this deck with power?  It's easy to budgetize, so I think we should discuss an optimal version and then people wanting to budgetize can just cut the power and replace with swamps or something.

Finally, you play Vial, so no, you don't scoop to Chalice for 2.

I honestly think that a 3-color version is workable, especially since 2/3 of the top decks don't use Wastes.  Kataki really doesn't have dead matchups, except maybe like FCG which you lose anyway.

I think comparing our two charts that it is obvious that I value Black more than you do.  I consider Duress/Cabal Therapy and Chains as almost auto-includes on that list, while you don't have them.  I think that Withered Wretch is better than Meddling Mage also.  However, I think that good versions can be made of all 3 color combinations.  I actually prefer the BW version though, because really, I prefer STP to FOW in these decks.  FOW puts huge design constraints on the deck and still is rarely better than Swords.  They both mean you don't lose to a topdecked Tinker, but one also eliminates the possibility of Welding and, vitally, is not a 2 for 1.  I actually think Daze is better than FOW definitely when paired with Black at possibly when paired with White, depending on the list.

I think we are at a point where, with Black and just Fishy decks in general getting far more really good options over the last blocks, almost every color combination imaginable is capable of coming up with the 12-16 utility creatures and 12-16 solid disruption spells that we call Fish (Just look in the first page of this forum).  This makes it amazingly more complicated to come up with an optimal Fish list like U/R was at first.  Not really going anywhere with this, just saying that it is probable me and you might just end up agreeing to disagree on Black and Blue's relative power in these decks.

Well, first of all, Confidant isn't really a huge reason to play mono-black.  A relatively painless splash of white or blue really doesn't tax the manabase at all.  That said, here is a chart because charts are fun of B/W vs U/W (the cards exclusive to each build)

B/W
Top-notch:
Chains of Mephistopheles
Dark Confidant
Withered Wretch
Duress
Cabal Therapy

OK-Good:
Phyrexian Negator
Mesmeric Fiend

U/W
Top-Notch:
FOW
Meddling Mage
Stifle

OK-Good:
Gilded Drake
Daze
Standstill

I think that Black is a deeper color, with its cards easily capable of forming mono-black (although I agree with you, the stigma really is unpleasant), but that there aren't a ton of benefits with playing mono-black.  The problem with Black and B/W is its weakness to topdecks and really really early brokenness.  The coinflip matters far more with that deck too.  UW also uses Vial so much better than Black.  Blue just really only gives FOW and Mage though.  Maybe a Bwu?  Vintage is low on Wastes right now.
Mana (24)
4x Polluted Delta
3x Bloodstained Mire
3x Swamp
2x Scrubland
1x Underground Sea
2x City of Brass
4x Wasteland
1x Strip Mine
1x Lotus
3x Moxen
1x Lotus Petal
1x Dark Ritual

Creatures (16)
3x Kataki, War's Wage
4x Meddling Mage
4x Dark Confidant
4x Withered Wretch
1x Phyrexian Negator

Other (19)
4x Chalice
4x Chains
4x Duress
3x Cabal Therapy
4x Swords to Plowshares

Obviously the mana isn't great, but card for card, the deck is very good (at least on paper).  It is heavily skewed towards beating control, but if you want to beat Workshops, Fish isn't a great choice.  SB would include Shadow of Doubt, Pithing Needle, Jitte, Stifle, Negator, Kami of Ancient Law, Energy Flux, and Daze as options.  Kataki and Chalice sort of have dissynergy, but if you have Kataki and a relevant Chalice, you are winning anyway.  This pretty much loses to decks like FCG too.  Null Rod remains tempting because Chalice is almost dead on the play and Null Rod lets the deck be a little more reactive.

The mana is heavily skewed towards stability, City of Brass and more duals are decent options if you aren't expecting Wastelands.
The creatures are AMAZING.  Every one is amazing disruption (except obviously Negator) and has at least two power to boot.
The disruption is also really really good.  Daze and Stifle are also serious maindeck contenders.

I'll test this list some and see if playing Mage and Withered Wretch in the same deck is viable, and if so, if it is as good as it feels in my head.

What is the end result of Humility and 2 Opalescences in play?

I honestly think Gilded Drake is not the answer you are looking for.  It is highly conditional and not a threat until/unless your opponent has played one, one that also has to be a creature. 

@JJP:  No, it is not bad.  Nabbing two cards one of which has to be blue on the first turn is a great trade.

@Ambivalent Duck:
I agree that Chalice is probably bad, and if it isn't, why play 3?  About Shadow of Doubt being strictly worse than Stifle, though, I disagree.  Firstly, what non-disruption card do you want on turn 2?  The whole deck is disruption.  Shadow of Doubt is also still good past turn 2, as it prevents like 11 or so cards in most decks and cantrips.

@xrobx:
I don't understand your post.  The inclusion of Chalice affects Vial, and not the other way around.  Rituals, artifact mana, and Chalice don't counteract each other at all,and without Vial, the point of them remains the same.  Also, the deck already has black and still plays Chalice.

@Onslaught:
I still am not convinced that the design constraints imposed by FOW don't outweigh the benefit.  I would really rather play Mana Leak, and I think you are too scared off by the stigma associated with sui.  However, just assuming that FOW is played for the sake of argument, I have a couple of comments about these lists.

First list: Null Rod is really really really good.  Since you are going with the low Moxen base and no Jittes, I think that cutting Vials and Chalices for Rituals and Null Rods would really help.  For better or worse, FOW is really killing that Gilded Drake spot, because Negators and Jittes are both way better threats and clocks (although then you have the Rod/Negator or Chalice/Jitte choice).  Also fetches > duals.

Second list:  Not a big fan, but it is designed to do a specific thing and it does that.

Jitte Version:  I think that rituals go in before Moxen, and also you only have 12 creatures to wear the Jitte.  I would cut a Jitte also.  The deck really runs low on the disruption that makes or breaks these decks, too, and Brainstorm isn't really that good here.

Mono-Black version:  Ewww.  You can 1) make the deck mono-B sui and not suck by cutting Force of Will and the 8 crappy cards that come with it or 2) go to 7-8 fetches, add an Underground Sea, and almost painlessly splash real blue (going exactly to where you were in the first list.)

I think that Blue should be mostly a splash in this deck.  Stifle, Time Walk, and Ancestral are good, but when you have to run Grizzly Bears to fill your FOW requirements, something is wrong.  IMO the deck at its best will essentially be Suicide/U as opposed to UB Fish.

Here are the things in the list that I think just aren't optimal:  I think that Force of Will should be Chains of Mephistopheles.  For two mana, you get a card that is amazing against Gifts and Control Slaver and good against two kinds of Stax.  If you don't feel comfortable running this card, I think probably you should be running a different deck, but Mana Leak isn't bad either.  If you are going to play Chalice, you should play four, more Moxen, and possibly Jitte, because this deck really can use the colorless mana, but if you are not going to make use of the freedom it gives you, then I would run 4 Null Rod, which is an amazing bomb against every one of the top decks, for sure cut Vial, and add 3 of any number of maindeck contenders (last Shadow of Doubt, Phyrexian Negator, Cabal Therapy, more mana).  Finally, you really have no reason not to be playing with Dark Rituals, less duals, more fetches, and less overall lands.

Also, Vial, while nice, is, in my opinion, a fundamental misunderstanding of how this deck works.  With the current 8 targeted discard spells, Chalices/Null Rods, Stifles, Shadow of Doubts, Wastelands, Withered Wretches, whatever you play in the current FOW spot, etc, there is no doubt that this deck packs an incredible disruptive wallop.  However, what does the deck do in terms of aggression?  Defining aggression as the playing of something that will win the game imminently if not dealt with, this deck has little to no aggression.  Dark Confidant, for example, will give you an advantage if not dealt with, but there is currently little to nothing you can draw with that advantage that will win you the game now, simply answers that disrupt your opponent.  The reverse is true for you opponent.  They have lots of spells that will win them the game if not dealt with, spells that come down in the first couple of turns.  How does this relate to Vial?  Firstly, since you have to play control, Vials, while nice, don't really do anything to control except save your mana for a couple of turns, and Dark Rituals and other acceleration do that better.  Secondly, as control, you are forced to answer the other player's aggressive threats in turns one and two, and Vial cripples that plan, giving the opponent free rein on turn one and requiring an amazing turn 2 to come back.  Thirdly, as an interactive control deck, Vial's gift of uncounterability really isn't a bonus like it is in, say, Legacy Goblins, because they really don't have to answer your creatures, except for maybe Withered Wretch.

The good thing about the position of a control deck is that your control cards really are potent, each being of stellar individual quality and many shutting down large chunks of an opponent's deck by themselves.  However, the cards each deal with a specific category of cards that an opponent plays, so, if Shadow of Doubt is missing from your current position, the opponent gets a great chance to topdeck a tutor or Tinker in the following turns.  Therefore, I think Phyrexian Negator is a great choice in this deck.  The colorless mana in his cost mean that he can really take advantage of more acceleration, he provides a real clock to actually allow you to play aggro-control, he is a threat that the opponent actually has to deal with, and he will just steal games due to current Vintage's inability to deal with large fast creatures.  By himself he cuts the number of draw steps your opponent will have in half.

Jitte is really, really good too, and I hope they can be fit in.

Finally, to end this long, rambling post, here is what I think is optimal, based on my reasons above.

Mana (25)
4x Polluted Delta
2x Bloodstained Mire
2x Underground Sea
4x Swamp
4x Dark Ritual
1x Lotus
3x Moxen
4x Wasteland
1x Strip Mine

Creatures (15)
4x Mesmeric Fiend
4x Withered Wretch
(3-)4x Dark Confidant
3(-4)x Phyrexian Negator

Noncreature Disruption (21)
4x Chalice of the Void
4x Duress
4x Chains of Mephistopheles
(2-)3x Stifle
3(-4)x Shadow of Doubt
(0-)1x Demonic Consultation
1x Time Walk
1x Ancestral Recall
0(-2)x Jitte

SB:
Pithing Needle, Jitte, Null Rod, Energy Flux, In The Eye Of Chaos, final copies of cards, Tinker answers.

Yeah, it's 61 cards.  So sue me.  Flexibilities are listed.  If you feel the need to cut one card slot for whatever reason, I would make it Stifle or Chalice.  The mana is only mediocre, it has to balance explosiveness, 5 Strips, and 2 colors.

That was probably the longest post in the history of the world.

IMO vanilla creatures are not what this deck needs.  Mongrel/Rootwalla are good and provide a nice clock, so why Jungle Lion?  Rancor is faster, recurs under Smokestack, and is indestructible.  I would cut the Jungle Lions for a Kataki, who is simply so amazing right now, and 3 utility creatures.  Samurai of the Pale Curtain specifically is a real beating against many decks.  I think a Mox and a Lotus at a minimum should go in, because they speed your deck up so much, and really, any mana is just as shitty a topdeck late game.  I think that the SB should have the last Kataki, the last Choke, and what else?  Chalice for on the play?  Pithing Needle? Jitte?

The other thing I would like to say is, while I don't feel that this is a bad deck, I think that the cards blue give you outweigh the cards green give you, whether UW fish or WW/u.

Here is my list:

Creatures (16)
4x Dark Confidant
4x Phyrexian Negator
4x Mesmeric Fiend
4x Withered Wretch

Disruption (19)
4x Duress
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Chains of Mephistopheles
3x Umezawa's Jitte
4x Chalice of the Void

Mana (25)
4x Moxen
1x Black Lotus
1x Strip Mine
4x Wasteland
4x Dark Ritual
7x Swamp
4x Fetches

SB:
4x Shadow of Doubt
4x Pithing Needle
1x Umezawa's Jitte
4x Null Rod
2x open

This is what I am playing right now.  I think that 4 Chalice maindeck are necessities, because turn 1 Chalice on the play is just so so so good.  Cabal Therapy provides another one-srop targeted discard spell, and it has great synergy with Fiend and Duress.  Negator I would never play as anything less than a 4-of, because it is that important to get pressure on the opponent.  That is a major part of why Jitte is so good too.

Tutors are mostly bad.  Consultation is ok because of its instant speed and no card disadvantage, but Seal and Vamp and Demonic just aren't good in the deck.

Confidant allows you to outdraw really any deck, and sets up for vicious turns 2 and 3.

The three cards that I would entertain ideas about cutting are Jitte, Chalice, and maybe Cabal Therapy, and I could only see myself doing that to move one of my SB cards maindeck (Shadow of Doubt?) or to add Blue.

Vial is good, but what do you cut for it?  This deck, with the exception of Negator, really is far more control than aggro, so you need to deal with your opponent more than they need to deal with you.  Vial, if you cut Moxen for it, severely hurts this because your turn one becomes much less effective in controlling them, and they can mostly ignore your Vial, since Tinker is their real plan here, and Vial doesn't affect that.  If you add it in addition to Moxen, your deck has about 28-29 mana sources, far too many.

Cards like Plaguebearer and Skittering Skirge are unnecessary, because the deck already has far better disruption and far better clocks.

Wow, I had a really big post that got lost, but I will address the main points of it (in list style because that's fun)

-Negator is really really good against the extremely removal-light decks prevalent now, and it gives your opponent almost no time to randomly topdeck good stuff.  Control Slaver, Stax, and Gifts all have a really hard time dealing with it, and you can often coast on it to a win.  (Compare 1st turn Negator to 1st turn Skittering Skirge)

-Moxes are better than Vial in most environments, because not getting active until turn three is just too big a deterrent, and without Moxes Vial takes up your whole first turn many times, which is unimaginably horrible.  Jitte is also better than Vial, because it gives you an answer to cards that resolve (even ones with more than 3 toughness), and Null Rod really isn't that big of a concern.

-Tinker and tutors for it are this deck's biggest problem, and this is exacerbated by losing the die roll.  Shadow of Doubt has been excellent for me on the play (out of the SB), always excellent against Gifts, and a possible maindeck inclusion as having one in hand really really helps to seal up the game, plus it is cantripping LD.

-I don't think this is just inferior to other aggro-control because there really isn't any prominent aggro-control at the moment and because this deck really is powerful, card for card, and because Withered Wretch > the rest of Vintage.

-STP is certainly interesting, but what do you cut, and is adding it worth the stability loss?

I know I'm replying to a huge necro, but I thought that this would be a good time to talk about lists with Confidant since the topic is already on the front page.

Is everyone playing Confidant, and if they are, what are they cutting for him?  I have cut down to Wretches, Fiends, Negators, and Confidants as my creatures, and I don't play Vial.  I also play 4 Chains, as there is no real excuse not to play them now that there is an engine to go with it. Confidant is working out great for me.  I'm not sure if people have been playing this or not, but I have gone to a full set of Moxen, and they are great.  With Jitte, Negator, Fiend, Confidant, and Chains all requiring colorless, they fit right in.  Honestly, I think this deck is shaping up really really nicely, and every slot looks very good to me.

maxx:  Coretapper is bad because:
A) It doesn't get active with something to affect till turn 3
B) You don't always have Jitte
C)  At best, it tap/sacs for 6 damage with another creature and an active Jitte.
D) Your Chalice stays at zero
E)  There is nothing worse to cut
F)  Some people are cutting Vial

Edit:  Mods, lock this if you don't feel like this is worth continuing the necro for.

Belcher could win with less permanents, but it usually just wins too fast. for an opponent to play anything.  Let me just revise what I am saying.  There is an existing deck that pays more mana for a card with less restrictions. This also dodges Pithing Needle and Null Rod and is overall far less susceptible to hate that plagues Belcher.  In addition, it could support Force if it wanted to.  I think that all of this means it warrants increasing the mana cost or giving decks an untap to mana burn or find a disenchant or something.  I think even sless powerful, it will still be a good Johnny card that I think would have real potential.

This card seems, well, wrong, especially in Legacy.  Fetch, Enlightened Tutor.  Land, ritual or any two pieces of acceleration, win.  Belcher wins with all of the card's conditions in place, and this costs 4 instead of seven, and furthermore allows you to play with land.

This card would be more fair IMO if it triggered at the beginning of your upkeep or something, or cost 3WW.

This is really, really, really good.  In limited, it is at least 2W: Draw 3 cards almost every time, and in Standard and Block, it will be the same if not better.  Hell, it even gives Parfait a real draw engine. I think that this would be fair and still very playable if it was 3W.  3W guarantees uncastability turn 2 and turn 3 in most decks.  It would still be a little worrisome in G/W decks if the cards were there, but I think it would turn out OK.

I think anything more than 2 is wrong.  This will almost never be better than Sapphire Medallion.  The Black and Red cards people play are sorceries or creatures for the most part anyway, and making you play cards mainphase is a huge drawback.  Other formats don't play that many instants, so it is worse there.