[Free Article]The Most Dominant Engine in Vintage History: The March/April

[hitman]

I think this was a good article.  I just finished reading it and the reasoning is sound.  The charts didn't do anything for me except the last one.  The line chart that shows the success of archetypes in relation to each other across a time period was excellent.  I found those extremely valuable.  I can see debates in the future using these as a reasonable standard to interpret.  Opting away from restriction was good, as well.

[Diakonov]

2: When's the last time anyone played Painter-Grindstone? Last tourney I was at I watched 2 fully powered Tez builds lose to a practically budget Painter Combo deck loaded with hate and Goblin Welders. In case you forgot, Painter-Grindstone is another 'opps I win' 2 card combo that costs a tiny bit more colorless mana. Both combo pieces are unrestricted and only 1 is a dead draw, the other enables REB's to a superior effect. The price for this combo is also like 1/10th of the price. Where was all the restriction talk before Time Vault? I promise you if Time Vault wasn't re-errated these same people would be here complaining about Painter's combo. If Time Vault is axed then Painter-Grindstone is ready and willing to take it's place, I'd give it 6 months before we start seeing the same discussion again.

Not quite. If you want to beat Painter you can simply add a single Gaea's Blessing to your sideboard, and you significatnly improve your post-board win percentage. You could even play it maindeck if you have some Green in your manabase. There is no single card that can improve the Vault+Key matchup that drastically, in particular since you do not even need to draw the Blessing to take effect (actually you don't even want to).

Thanks.

BTW is there a card that Painter pilots would run to remove Gaeas's Blessing from the opposing library? If so then in theory, depending on the cost of course, is it really any different then a Tez player having to fetch a bounce spell to beat Null Rod? (except for that Null Rod can also be countered i guess).

Extract.  Although, they could just run more than one Blessing I suppose, in which case you'd need Cranial Extraction.  Probably not even worth it at that point though.

Personally I'm surprised that no one else has commented on meadbert's post.  Initiate some Drain deck cannibalism by unrestricting cards that are in good in control mirror-matches.  It ought to weaken the deck against the rest of the field.  I think back to Affinity Ravager in Standard years ago, where for a while it seemed the only sensible option was to run that deck.  Even the decks built specifically to hate it didn't work.  In the end it was too much, but it did start to get a little bit more diverse again when Ravager itself began to run anti-Ravager cards.  It naturally weakened its other matchups.   

[Purple Hat]

1: The best Tez lists can still roll over to 8x Chalice/Rod and 8x Duress/Thoughtseize. No really, I'm testing these lists all the time against Sui-black and I still haven't found a build that easily gets around x16 of the above cards more then 60% of the time. If I'm wrong please someone point me to a decklist.

so....you're playing against an aggroish deck running 8 duress effects, 4 chalice and 4 Rod and you're still winning 60% of the time?  Steve, you're right.  it's too broken.

[reaperbong]

So it's too broken because I only win 1 of 2 games against an unpowered budget deck? seriously? lol

Also this is with a fully sideboarded version even running extra bounce and a 1-of The Abyss.

Shout out to Diabolic Edict. Use it, love it, get used to it.

[JDawg13]

No, the idea is that even when you're playing against a deck specifically designed to hate out your Tez deck, powered or not, you still have over a 50% win rate.  A hate deck should, by definition, totally wreck the deck it is designed to hate out.  The 8x Duress effect 8x Rod/Chalice deck you're testing against still doesn't do that, even though those are all cards you want to run to hate out Tez.

[reaperbong]

Yea but Duress effects and Chalice/Null Rod hit a wide range of decks not just Tez so that's not really a solid comparison. Chalice alone is extremely versatile and can be adjusted on the fly for whatever non-Ichorid deck you're up against. It's not like against Ichorid where Yixlid Jailers are useless against anything else, come on these aren't even sideboard cards. Also you have 5x Waste/Strip that will attack just about any deck out there including Ichorid.

No matter what I think a 50% win ratio for a fully unpowered budget deck against a fully powered OMFG THIS IS THE END OF VINTAGE monstrosity like Tez is pretty damn good.

[Bongo]

The second fact is that drain decks no longer have to splash a 3rd color for their kill.  There mana bases are a lot more streamlined and therefore they can afford to run more basics.  The converted mana cost of there decks also went down and there kill cards can be completely cast of of drain mana.  The mana denial route became a lot harder to pull off.

I'd like to highlight this. There are increasing amounts of UB variants floating around, and they all have a rock-solid two-color manabase, similar to TPS.
In addition to the decreased efficiency of manadenial, there's also the fact that there aren't powerful hate cards (like Leyline for Dredge, or Hurkyls for Stax) around, which was also mentioned before.
This partially explains why Fish and Shop strategies never really break through on a constant basis.

Another "predator" of Drain strategies, Ritual combo, also isn't as favored as many believe, especially if the Drain player packs 3+ Duress effects in the maindeck. The widespread adoption of Mystic Remora is also bad news for a Storm-based strategy.


I hope Wizards are going to shake up the format though some unrestrictions (since any other restriction besides Mana Drain wouldn't have a big impact). Banning and re-errataing won't happen, and even if it did, would probably only have a marginal effect.

[Neonico]

Article was good. Liked the graphs...
 As far as res/unres goes, we have to admit that American Vintage is what has truly defined the format (or at least in my experience for the last 4-5 years.) Scattered power-poor Euro tournaments aren't great indicators. No offense to our overseas friends, but I believe the highest level of competitive vintage has always been in the states (Eurovino might be the exception.) To be frank, Vintage is at it's lowest point since I've played. I don't think we should take any action until after the ICBM open and Championships.
 If there is still a problem, Restricting drain might be the answer, because I can't really pinpoint any unrestrictions that would even the field for everyone. Plus, I'm sure that a drain restriction would still allow Tezz to be VERY playable.  (Just saw your agreement with that point. Sorry if i brought up old topics. Didn't read first page)
 

I lol'd hard to this one... Seriously, i really hope that you don't know what you speack of.
More seriously, i think that there is something that no one speack of... instead of allways asking for restricts/Unrestricts, we are in a metagame that is one of the easiest to hate.... Why people don't innovate and play good decks against acutal control decks instead of allways whinning ? Ichorid is better than it has never been, Fish is also really strong, especially the noble variant, shop can be designed to consistently beat drain decks... Seriously, the metagame stagnation that we can observe, especially in the US, is really for a big part of mana drain domination.

Here in Europe, we have the most interesting metagame that we never had, simply because people adapt to dominant deck, and the more dominant a deck is, the easier it is to build something good against it, and prepare sideboards for other tradiotionnal matchups.

[wiley]

More seriously, i think that there is something that no one speack of... instead of allways asking for restricts/Unrestricts, we are in a metagame that is one of the easiest to hate.... Why people don't innovate and play good decks against acutal control decks instead of allways whinning ? Ichorid is better than it has never been, Fish is also really strong, especially the noble variant, shop can be designed to consistently beat drain decks... Seriously, the metagame stagnation that we can observe, especially in the US, is really for a big part of mana drain domination.

Here in Europe, we have the most interesting metagame that we never had, simply because people adapt to dominant deck, and the more dominant a deck is, the easier it is to build something good against it, and prepare sideboards for other tradiotionnal matchups.

According to some (and the numbers back it up ... to an extent) the innovation isn't working.  Taking a look at the non-us tournaments in the article:

3.01.09
1) Zurich (53 players)
Tezzeret Control won

3.07.09
2) Helsinki (33 players)
Ichorid won.

3.15.09
4) Levellois, France (57 players)
Tezzeret Control won.

5) Empoli (183 players)
Ad Nauseam won

8) Catalan Vintage League (71 players)
Ichorid Won

3.29.09
9) Madrid, Spain (44 players)
Tezzeret Control Won

10) Zurich, Switzerland (42 players)
Tezzeret Control Won

4.05.09
12) Breda, Netherlands (61 players)
Tezzeret Control Won

4.18.09
13) Madrid, Spain (40 players)
Shaymora Won

14) Catalan Vintage League (73 players)
Tezzeret Control Won

4.26.09
15) Zurich (54 players)
Drain Tendrils Won

Out of 11 tournaments, 6 were won with tez.  That makes it a dominant deck outside our borders.  If you like we can also up the minimum person requirement to 50 to reflect Phillip's old style of analysis (mostly just because I have done it previously in this thread) and you see that of 4 tournaments 7 were won by tez.  That is still a dominant deck.

Speaking for people everywhere, there is innovation going on and it does work.  Just not to the levels that some people (myself included) would like yet.  Speaking for Americans, it works better here:

3.08.09
3) Grand Prix Chicago Side Event, USA (81 players)
Ichorid won.

3.21.09
6) The Mana Drain Open 13 (113 players)
Tezzeret Control won

3.22.09
7) The Mana Drain Open 13, Day 2 (48 players)
Goyf Control Won

4.04.09
11) Blue Bell, PA (44 players)
Oath Won

1 out of 4 in 'our' data set was tez, or with the 50 bench mark 1 of 2.  Both of which are less than the numbers put up in european tournaments.

All that said, I don't agree with templar's view of the development of this format.  I also apologize to Stephen if he didn't want these shown, but since it was material easily accessed by the public I thought it would be ok.

[Smmenen]

No apologies necessary.

It's always amusing to me how the fundamental attribution error is repeated time and again when it comes to interpreting these data sets.   

EDIT: by that I mean that people try to explain the behavior of the system according to individual behavior, such as the 'failure' of a few individuals to find ways to hate out Tez/Drain decks.

Case in point:

I'd like to say I'm reallly happy with the metagame right now, it's fun and there is much room for innovation, especially if you own 4 Mana Drains and a Time Vault

Just saying, I really don't see what all the uproar is about. These threads are like the Vintage version of that crazy guy on the corner with the END IS NIGH sign. Normal Vintage players are trying to ignore you, we'd like to just continue on with our Magic life and play with our little Mana Drains.

Anyway if someone could take a moment to address the following 4 points that have been on my mind it'd be greatly appreciated:

1: The best Tez lists can still roll over to 8x Chalice/Rod and 8x Duress/Thoughtseize. No really, I'm testing these lists all the time against Sui-black and I still haven't found a build that easily gets around x16 of the above cards more then 60% of the time. If I'm wrong please someone point me to a decklist.

2: When's the last time anyone played Painter-Grindstone? Last tourney I was at I watched 2 fully powered Tez builds lose to a practically budget Painter Combo deck loaded with hate and Goblin Welders. In case you forgot, Painter-Grindstone is another 'opps I win' 2 card combo that costs a tiny bit more colorless mana. Both combo pieces are unrestricted and only 1 is a dead draw, the other enables REB's to a superior effect. The price for this combo is also like 1/10th of the price. Where was all the restriction talk before Time Vault? I promise you if Time Vault wasn't re-errated these same people would be here complaining about Painter's combo. If Time Vault is axed then Painter-Grindstone is ready and willing to take it's place, I'd give it 6 months before we start seeing the same discussion again.

3: Tez decks dominate because it's fun, end of story. After all this data collection and all these complaints and opinions I guarantee the only conclusion you'll be able to find is that more people play this deck because it's the most fun. Control is fun. Mana Drains rock, everyone loves them. The Planeswalker is pretty cool. Time Vault is kick ass, one of Tedin's G O A T paintings. Infinate turns is like the peak of Vintage broken greatness, who wouldn't want to go for infinate turns?? Sorry but you won't find me saving up to get Workshops or Bazzaar of Baghdad soon.. B O R I N G ...

4: Ichorid is just as broken or worse. If I'm wrong then why does it take up so much more space in the sideboard? Let me know when people will start boarding in 8-10 anti-Tez cards.

It's NEVER the case that the dominant deck can't be beaten.    I already explained that in this thread.   It wasn't that Gush decks, or Necro decks, or Gifts decks, or Fact decks, or Academy decks or Affinity decks couldn't be beaten.  It's just that the format was unhealthy on account of their dominance.   

EVERY magic deck can be beaten.    Take a look at my unrestricted Vintage experiment. http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/16641_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Unrestricted_Vintage_A_Magical_Experiment.html  Even a deck with a 100% turn one goldfish can be beaten if you design a foil for it. 

[Neonico]

There are some classification errors in Semnnen Data.

For example : the winning deck of Levallois, France, is a remora deck including one tezzeret. Is it a tezzeret controle ? No, but classified in that category....
Out of 11 tournaments in Europe, (88 top8 slots) you have 16 tezzeret decks if i counted well. (18%)
Out of 4 tournaments is the Us (32 top8 slots) you have 7 tezzeret decks. (22%)
I let you do the math, but i really thing that tezzeret is alot more played than any other archetype in the US, (when i read tournament breakdowns) and not that much at least in french tournaments (dont want to speakc of what i don't know).

After that, the fact that a deck perform better can also be for thousand other reasons than just is too much powerfull, especially pilot/opponent quality, pairings and many others.

For me, basing some restrictions apon Top8 statistics is clearly wrong, especially when you classify some decks in a category represented by a card that is the worst in the deck and should be easily cuttable...

It would have been alot more accurate for me to categorize regarding the draw engine, the kill condition and so on.... Tezzeret isnt an engine. It shouldn't be a deck category.

[Smmenen]

There are some classification errors in Semnnen Data.

For example : the winning deck of Levallois, France, is a remora deck including one tezzeret. Is it a tezzeret controle ? No, but classified in that category....

If you look closely, you'll see I classified it as both.   It is noted for each column, accurately, as a hybrid. 

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

Article was good. Liked the graphs...
 As far as res/unres goes, we have to admit that American Vintage is what has truly defined the format (or at least in my experience for the last 4-5 years.) Scattered power-poor Euro tournaments aren't great indicators. No offense to our overseas friends, but I believe the highest level of competitive vintage has always been in the states (Eurovino might be the exception.) To be frank, Vintage is at it's lowest point since I've played. I don't think we should take any action until after the ICBM open and Championships.
 If there is still a problem, Restricting drain might be the answer, because I can't really pinpoint any unrestrictions that would even the field for everyone. Plus, I'm sure that a drain restriction would still allow Tezz to be VERY playable.  (Just saw your agreement with that point. Sorry if i brought up old topics. Didn't read first page)
 

I lol'd hard to this one... Seriously, i really hope that you don't know what you speack of.
More seriously, i think that there is something that no one speack of... instead of allways asking for restricts/Unrestricts, we are in a metagame that is one of the easiest to hate.... Why people don't innovate and play good decks against acutal control decks instead of allways whinning ? Ichorid is better than it has never been, Fish is also really strong, especially the noble variant, shop can be designed to consistently beat drain decks... Seriously, the metagame stagnation that we can observe, especially in the US, is really for a big part of mana drain domination.

Here in Europe, we have the most interesting metagame that we never had, simply because people adapt to dominant deck, and the more dominant a deck is, the easier it is to build something good against it, and prepare sideboards for other tradiotionnal matchups.

That is pretty sad how 8/11 major tournaments in Europe were won by Drains and you still think good innovation is happening there. I don't see a single Fish or Shop deck taking a win. Do you know what this means? It means unless you're running Drains or balls to the wall combo (Ichorid/Ichorid/ANT being the other 3 winners) and crossing your fingers you don't stand a chance. Yeah you're clearly innovating so hard we should take a page from your book right?

After that, the fact that a deck perform better can also be for thousand other reasons than just is too much powerfull, especially pilot/opponent quality, pairings and many others.

For me, basing some restrictions apon Top8 statistics is clearly wrong, especially when you classify some decks in a category represented by a card that is the worst in the deck and should be easily cuttable...

It would have been alot more accurate for me to categorize regarding the draw engine, the kill condition and so on.... Tezzeret isnt an engine. It shouldn't be a deck category.

So you're saying for what, 6 months everybody in the world piloting Tezzeret has been getting scrubs and good pairings? REALLY? Smmenen isn't an idiot he wouldn't be concerned if Drains had just been at the top for a month or so and then the meta adjusted to beat it. The meta HASN'T adjusted which likely signals it CAN'T adjust because people are obviously TRYING. It also seems that you're arbitrarily raging at deck naming which I think is illegal on TMD. Tezz is just a 4-letter word for "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A" and clearly nobody is going to type out all that crap every time just to please the minority of nitpickers like you.

So if basing restrictions/unrestrictions on T-8 and tournament winning performances is wrong how do we do it then? Roll a dice? Flip a coin?

Yea but Duress effects and Chalice/Null Rod hit a wide range of decks not just Tez so that's not really a solid comparison. Chalice alone is extremely versatile and can be adjusted on the fly for whatever non-Ichorid deck you're up against. It's not like against Ichorid where Yixlid Jailers are useless against anything else, come on these aren't even sideboard cards. Also you have 5x Waste/Strip that will attack just about any deck out there including Ichorid.

No matter what I think a 50% win ratio for a fully unpowered budget deck against a fully powered OMFG THIS IS THE END OF VINTAGE monstrosity like Tez is pretty damn good.

It doesn't matter what budget you use and that is a horrible reason for claiming that Fish doesn't matter. Fish has always been a budget deck and yet in the past it has usually been able to rise to huge win percentages against the top deck and force drastic rethinking by the top deck to deal with it. The fact of the matter is if a 60-card pure anti-tezz deck is only getting 50% then we're in deep trouble and the budget of the deck doesn't mean crap.

[Shock Wave]

It's NEVER the case that the dominant deck can't be beaten.    I already explained that in this thread.   It wasn't that Gush decks, or Necro decks, or Gifts decks, or Fact decks, or Academy decks or Affinity decks couldn't be beaten.  It's just that the format was unhealthy on account of their dominance.   

EVERY magic deck can be beaten.    Take a look at my unrestricted Vintage experiment. http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/16641_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Unrestricted_Vintage_A_Magical_Experiment.html  Even a deck with a 100% turn one goldfish can be beaten if you design a foil for it. 

I have been trying to beat this point into the Vintage community for some years now, yet it seems it always falls on deaf ears. Again now, that dreaded line of reasoning is rearing its ugly head again: "You can beat deck X, just add <insert 8-10 cards here>."

Steve, I think you missed one point: It is possible for a format to be unhealthy even if a deck is NOT dominant. All it takes is for a significant number of tourney goers to play a degenerate archetype, and immediately the format becomes unhealthy (see Flash).

[wiley]

Out of 11 tournaments in Europe, (88 top8 slots) you have 16 tezzeret decks if i counted well. (18%)
Out of 4 tournaments is the Us (32 top8 slots) you have 7 tezzeret decks. (22%)

That is actually pretty interesting, but in a very bad way.  This means that in the US 22% of the top 8s were tez and 25% of tournaments were won by tez.  However, in Europe when only 18% of top 8s were tez, a whopping 54% were won by tez (more accurately stated as won by time vault).  Unfortunately there is a pretty big gap in number of tournaments, but the data we do have says that tez/time vault is more of a problem in Europe despite being played less.

Eventually I will probably try to look closer at what else is being played to the top tables between the two metagames (is it really right to say that there are only two overall metagames?) to try and draw some better conclusions as to why this happened, but for now this snapshot of the format is more depressing than I thought.

Tezz is just a 4-letter word for "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A"

I have always taken tez to mean a blue control/combo deck that seeks to win with time vault.  Running remora or even welder could easily fall in to that description, but maybe I'm too lax with my classification.

Steve, I think you missed one point: It is possible for a format to be unhealthy even if a deck is NOT dominant. All it takes is for a significant number of tourney goers to play a degenerate archetype, and immediately the format becomes unhealthy (see Flash).

How do you quantify that though?  Can it be based solely off top 8 appearances compared to the hatred for the deck?  Do you need to know how many people played it that didn't make top 8?  Do you just need to have enough community outcry against it?

While statements like yours definitely hold water, the only thing we as players can do is complain until our hated deck gets nuked by the DCI ala trinisphere, at which point the people who played the hated deck feel betrayed and the people who cried out or stood by start to fear the DCI.  Can it be anything other than a lose-lose situation?

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

Tezz is just a 4-letter word for "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A"

I have always taken tez to mean a blue control/combo deck that seeks to win with time vault.  Running remora or even welder could easily fall in to that description, but maybe I'm too lax with my classification.

I excluded Remora as most decks running it are significantly different in engine and Welder usually means Slaver so I excluded that also. The problem with your description is that within a few months if left unchecked every single combo and control deck will be running Time Vault. We can't just call everything Tezz.

I would be curious to see if Key/Vault could slap down a 100% turn 1 consistancy like Long in that unrestricted metagame. In all fairness it would be Long with the win condition replaced but it could still prove wrong the limit supposed on two-card combos. At the very least it would probably put Flash to shame.

[Troy_Costisick]

Just to note:

Conflux and Reborn have also failed to provide any new additions to the Vintage card pool that are capable of hosing and/or beating Drain decks.  In fact, those sets have only provided cards that would further strengthen that archetype.  The dominance of Drains is being perpetuated not just by popularity, not just by performance, not just by effeciency of the engine, but also a very stagnate card pool.  Witout DCI action, you can count on another 3 months of results similar to this article. 

[Smmenen]

Tezz is just a 4-letter word for "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A"

I have always taken tez to mean a blue control/combo deck that seeks to win with time vault.  Running remora or even welder could easily fall in to that description, but maybe I'm too lax with my classification.

I excluded Remora as most decks running it are significantly different in engine and Welder usually means Slaver so I excluded that also.

Not at all.   There are a number of Tez decks that run 2 Welders and no Mindslaver, especially in the early months of Tez. 

[Neonico]

So you're saying for what, 6 months everybody in the world piloting Tezzeret has been getting scrubs and good pairings? REALLY? Smmenen isn't an idiot he wouldn't be concerned if Drains had just been at the top for a month or so and then the meta adjusted to beat it. The meta HASN'T adjusted which likely signals it CAN'T adjust because people are obviously TRYING. It also seems that you're arbitrarily raging at deck naming which I think is illegal on TMD. Tezz is just a 4-letter word for "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A" and clearly nobody is going to type out all that crap every time just to please the minority of nitpickers like you.

So if basing restrictions/unrestrictions on T-8 and tournament winning performances is wrong how do we do it then? Roll a dice? Flip a coin?

Go the flame, and go the bad interpretation of what i said... I just wanted to point that a classification on a win condition isn't a good way to speack of a metagame health. Sorry if it wasn't clear. I'm sorry to say that, i don't care of deck names, but under what you call  "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A" there are alot of different builds, and when we speack of a dominant deck, it would perhaps be interesting to be sure of the classification. Proof is that even if Steve classified the winning deck of LEvallois as both tezzeret and remora deck, for me it remains a pure remora build, when the most etablished Tezzeret archetype is a thirst for knowledge deck.
Another exemple : I saw since Bazaar of Moxen, some build including Intuition/AK engine, with Vault/Key kill. IS it a tezzeret deck ? No it's exactly a Drain Tendrils deck with a different kill, and should be classified as drain tendrils, as it uses the same Engine. If you can't understand that, okay keep on insulting me thinking that i care of deck names.

And perhaps you should ask yourself WHY THE META DIDN'T ADAPT ? I can tell you that on the Paris Vintage Scene, the meta HAS adaptated, and tezzeret is FAR TO BE the dominant deck. GObelins, Ichorid, Selkie fish, all those strategies are strong against tezzeret, and guess what ? People play them ALOT and win tournaments with them where i play.

Let's try to analyse vintage format since the begining of what i call "modern vintage" : Since mirrodin bloc, which clearly revolutioned vintage archetype and decks.
You seem to forget something in your analysis : since the Trinisphere restriction, drain decks ALLWAYS dominated the format, with only a 6 monthes exception : Flash and Gush engines. What does this mean ? It means that when you don't have an overpowered spell in the format (I speack of clearly overpowered card, such as Gush/Flash/Trinisphere) drain is allways dominant. 

Just to note:

Conflux and Reborn have also failed to provide any new additions to the Vintage card pool that are capable of hosing and/or beating Drain decks.  In fact, those sets have only provided cards that would further strengthen that archetype.  The dominance of Drains is being perpetuated not just by popularity, not just by performance, not just by effeciency of the engine, but also a very stagnate card pool.  Witout DCI action, you can count on another 3 months of results similar to this article. 

I think it's clearly WRONG.
Qasali war pride in noble fish aggro archetype, and Coatl in control archetype, are both solid answers to Heavy control decks relying on Vault/key combo (and even on Painter/Grindstone combo decks for the Qasali)

[fury]

Hi all,

I strongly agree with Neonico's analysis. Before crying after the DCI to react and adapt the B&R list, are you sure you has analysed all the possibilities to beat a dominating archetype ? In Europe, Tezz archetypes are not dominating, because people know what to play against it, and anticipate the possible answers to some archetypes. I suggest to innovate and to think deeply instead of following the main stream and the "fashion" deck of the moment. Creativity should be more important,and the modification of the B&R list too often is not a good thing according to me.

[wiley]

Where in the 'winning more than half of your large tournaments' are you guys getting lost?  Tezzeret is the dominant deck, especially across the pond.  Saying otherwise discredits what you have to say, even if the rest of it is right.

In Europe, Tezz archetypes are not dominating, because people know what to play against it, and anticipate the possible answers to some archetypes.

False.  Despite peoples' best efforts, time vault decks still win half of the larger events in Europe.

I suggest to innovate and to think deeply instead of following the main stream and the "fashion" deck of the moment. Creativity should be more important,and the modification of the B&R list too often is not a good thing according to me.

Absolutely true.

And perhaps you should ask yourself WHY THE META DIDN'T ADAPT ? I can tell you that on the Paris Vintage Scene, the meta HAS adaptated, and tezzeret is FAR TO BE the dominant deck. GObelins, Ichorid, Selkie fish, all those strategies are strong against tezzeret, and guess what ? People play them ALOT and win tournaments with them where i play.

From the french tournament in the article you have:
Remora/Tez hybrid (time vault deck)
Strategic Reap/Painter (anti blue control deck) (also really neat!)
Remora (time vault deck)
goblins (anti control deck)
Time Vault Bomberman (time vault deck)
dredge (anti control deck)
dredge (anti control deck)
merfolk (anti control deck/anti time vault deck)

So in the top 8 there were 3 control decks that use time vault as their kill condition and 5 anti control decks.  What happened?  2/3 time vault control decks made top 4, 1 of them won the tournament.  The meta has not adapted yet if thing like that are happening.  So the current american versions of tez aren't doing well right now but the newest evolution to the deck (becoming a hybrid with remora, a deck that was built as an evolution to tez) won the tournament.  I have already defined my semantics as well as professed that time vault is the reason people are upset right now, not some specific build of a deck running tezzeret the seeker, mana drain and thirst for knowledge.

Let's try to analyse vintage format since the begining of what i call "modern vintage" : Since mirrodin bloc, which clearly revolutioned vintage archetype and decks.
You seem to forget something in your analysis : since the Trinisphere restriction, drain decks ALLWAYS dominated the format, with only a 6 monthes exception : Flash and Gush engines. What does this mean ? It means that when you don't have an overpowered spell in the format (I speack of clearly overpowered card, such as Gush/Flash/Trinisphere) drain is allways dominant.

True.  In fact that is also true to pre-modern vintage with decks like keeper and Xcc.  Mana drain has dominated this format since its printing.

Qasali war pride in noble fish aggro archetype, and Coatl in control archetype, are both solid answers to Heavy control decks relying on Vault/key combo (and even on Painter/Grindstone combo decks for the Qasali)

Also true.  Wizards has produced some fairly powerful cards as of late, they just need to find a home.

tldr; Stop lying to yourselves that the combo isn't a problem.  It is a problem, just one that probably has an answer.

[Neonico]

Okay, i'll try to elaborate my point a little differently.
I'm totally okay and agreeing that Vault/Key is the problem.
But classifying decks like you did is for me alot more accurate than it has been done since the begining of this thread for me.

Before time vault power level errata, did we called gifts and slaver the same deck being "tinker" decks or worst "Titan/Colossus" decks ? No, simply because we denominate 2 different categories for 2 different Archetypes, one being centered around welder + Thirst, the other on Merchant + Gifts, both being engines, not win conditions....

Sorry, but we cant compare the traditionnal tezzeret American established list, with a bomberman having the combo included.
One last thing i wanna talk about this particular french tournament i know really well. I can tell you one thing that you cant know if i dont tell you. This tournament had really really low tezzeret deck number, simply because people who traditionnal play a Vault/Key deck feared alot of hate, and it's what happened. The only performing tezzeret deck that won the whole thing was the only one to do well, and for 2 reasons : piloted by the best french vintage player by far, and being a REmora deck before being a Tezzeret deck. Note that the inclusion of dark confidant in his build gives him a really important edge in the control mirror matches. He designed the deck (and innovating) with this in mind : being able to beat whoever will netdeck the american lists of tezzeret.

When we speak of innovation and new decks, or new strategies, we have to look further than the 4 FoW/4 Drain including as soon as we building a controle deck.

Where i dont agree with you is that Ichorid and Gobelins are anti control decks. For me, it's theopposite. Both decks exists by themselves, Ichorid beating everything game 1 and fighting hate game 2, whatever the opposite deck is, and gobelins being a viable strategy by itself, just tuning the maindeck to beat more specifically one kind of deck. Both aren't dedicated hate decks, such as UR Gay fish have been a long time ago.

And I think that we dont have the same meaning of a dominant deck.... When i say that tezzeret doesn't dominate in Europe, it's not because the deck doesn't make somegood results, it's because it's not as played as slaver or gifts have been played during their domination days, and as forFrance, it only performs as a win ocndition in some innovative control builds from Greatest french players. I have seen so many middle players taking the deck and doing bad with it, just because even if a deck is as strong as you think it is, it doesn't win by itself.

[Smmenen]

Neonico wants it both ways: on the one hand he is arguing that Mana Drain decks aren't dominant, and that they aren't winning absurdly high.  But then he acknowledges that Mana Drain decks are dominant, as if that is OK.   That's not ok.   We had a perfectly healthy metagame, and now we don't.  

[Neonico]

Neonico wants it both ways: on the one hand he is arguing that Mana Drain decks aren't dominant, and that they aren't winning absurdly high.  But then he acknowledges that Mana Drain decks are dominant, as if that is OK.   That's not ok.   We had a perfectly healthy metagame, and now we don't.  

I know tons of french vintage players that are really enjoying the metagame as it is today, alot more than it was during Gifts or Flash/Gush days.
It's your point of view that the metagame isn't healthy but i'm still seeing alot of french players happy to play rogue decks, or new things like selkie fish and so on and doing well with them.

My main concern is that an action can be made by DCI regarding what you've writen, because you're the most (and unfortunatly only) known and respected writer of the format, and not being what all the players all around the world think.

When i'm looking at the Top8 appearance datas in France, back in 2005/2006, there were an average 5-6 drain decks in every top8, being bomberman, gifts, slaver, and control Oath.
Actually, the nbumber of drain decks in our Top8 is between 3 and 4, which i think it's fair for the most powerfull engine of the format. And alot of decks are considered Tier 1 (read can maketop8) in our tournaments actually, including, and it's the most interesting part for me, budget decks. The more powered players will play Ub controldecks, the more competitive the budget decks will be, and when a vintage scene doesn't organise alot of proxy tournaments, it's also a very important thing to consider.

Ha and a last thing that no one talked about : If you get one more Restriction on the mana drain decks, beside removing the absurd Vault/Key combo, you can be sure that any creature based strategy will be dead, as the metagame will be Ritual (with anti-artefact cardsmaindeck) vs Shop. It's important to keep Mana drain as it is, without unfair win conditions, just to keep a 3 way metagame.

[Smmenen]

Neonico wants it both ways: on the one hand he is arguing that Mana Drain decks aren't dominant, and that they aren't winning absurdly high.  But then he acknowledges that Mana Drain decks are dominant, as if that is OK.   That's not ok.   We had a perfectly healthy metagame, and now we don't.  

I know tons of french vintage players that are really enjoying the metagame as it is today, alot more than it was during Gifts or Flash/Gush days.
It's your point of view that the metagame isn't healthy but i'm still seeing alot of french players happy to play rogue decks, or new things like selkie fish and so on and doing well with them.

My main concern is that an action can be made by DCI regarding what you've writen, because you're the most (and unfortunatly only) known and respected writer of the format, and not being what all the players all around the world think.

When i'm looking at the Top8 appearance datas in France, back in 2005/2006, there were an average 5-6 drain decks in every top8, being bomberman, gifts, slaver, and control Oath.
Actually, the nbumber of drain decks in our Top8 is between 3 and 4, which i think it's fair for the most powerfull engine of the format. And alot of decks are considered Tier 1 (read can maketop8) in our tournaments actually, including, and it's the most interesting part for me, budget decks. The more powered players will play Ub controldecks, the more competitive the budget decks will be, and when a vintage scene doesn't organise alot of proxy tournaments, it's also a very important thing to consider.

Then why don't you  just be honest about your viewpoint.   

Admit that Mana Drain decks are dominating unlike anything has dominated before, but that you are happy about that fact.

You think this is ok:



That is not OK. 

This is why I say that this is hypocrisy.   If Dark Rituals, Workshops, Gush decks or anything else was putting up the numbers that Mana Drain decks were, there would be outrage. 

[Neonico]

I don't see where i'm not honest with my viewpoint, here is why :

Okay, so blue controldecks get the axe... And what metagame will we be in ?
Rituals decks with 3-4 artefact bounce vs shop ? Is it more interesting than what we have now ?

I tend to think that it is not, simply because it will kill alot of decks that are actually viable.

[Caron]

..Neonico Point of view concerning the EU metagame is actually very close to our real EU metagame..
.. we have hade seasons when Drains were more played than now..
.. and solutions against vault/key can be found in EU tournament lists..

.. we can not say anyway that drain+thirsts+vault/key combo is not dominating at least USA metagame which is spoiling the format itself..
.. so i think that maybe an action from DCI is needed.. and it's absolutely not easy to find which will be the best answer to this situation..

the only thing i hope is that this time DCI take small steps.. and don't restrict/unrestrict many cards at once like when they restricted merchant/ponder/brainstorm etc all at once..
a step by step approach i think will avoid situations like the one we have now.. that is a son of the last DCI actions (in my opinion)

CARONDIMONIO

[Smmenen]

I don't see where i'm not honest with my viewpoint, here is why :

Okay, so blue controldecks get the axe... And what metagame will we be in ?
Rituals with 3-4 artefact bounce vs shop ? Is it more interesting than what we have now ?

I tend to think that it is not, simply because it will kill alot of decks that are actually viable.

I am  not suggesting that mana Drains get the axe.  I am suggesting that you could 'solve' this metagame by either restricting Thrist OR unrestricting a few other cards that could boost other archtypes. 

Since I think the objective of helping slightly rebalance the metagame can be achieved either way, and since unrestrictions are preferred, that would be the best policy.   

[Explosion]

Looking at your graph, Stephen, mostly what it looks like is that as of June 20, 2 different varieties of Blue Control got smooshed into one. Whereas a Vintage player wanting to shuffle up Blue cards could run Mana Drains or a Gush shell, the result was largely the same: a Force of Will-powered control deck. I can't honestly see the difference between 25% Gush plus 15% Mana Drain, and today's 40% Mana Drain.

The remaining changes, according to your graph? Flash was restricted, which nearly instantly killed that archetype. Brainstorm, Merchant Scroll, and Ponder being restricted made Ritual-based combo decks a bit less consistent.

I certainly hope for some unrestrictions, because the shotgun-style restriction approach was far too much at once, but it seems like it's 40% Blue before to 40% Blue now. You're definitely right that Mana Drains are dominating, but only because Mana Drain is the "new" official face of Blue Control, when it used to be a duo.

[Smmenen]

You missed the fact that Mishra's Workshop decks fell from 27% of the field to almost 10% within a few months because of the restriction of Gush.   

The whole comparison that Tom LaPille made of Force of Will decks to other decks is really silly, since Dark Ritual decks, for the most part, are also Force of Will decks.    TPS and Pitch Long, the pre and post Gush decks were both Force of Will decks with lots of blue cards.   

But still, it shows the gigantic error of the restriction policy, which failed.