[Free Article]The Most Dominant Engine in Vintage History: The March/April

[Clint_NZ]

What I can not understand is if drains are dominanting @40% and Workshops dropped to 10%

Why is it that people haven't audibled to Dark Rituals?

Rituals good match-up is everywhere and its bad match-up has lost ground.

[wiley]

We had a perfectly healthy metagame, and now we don't.  

Isn't there more than the results to consider when you think of a healthy format?  According to the DCI they axed gush because every deck that used gush was within 10-15 cards of each other and that they perceived that gush based archetypes were too powerful.

The first part of that can not truly be said of mana drain decks.  Even during gifts era drain decks had a wide berth in their card choices.

The second part is where it gets a little interesting.  While gush decks only made out roughly 1/4 of the meta, they were winning nearly half of everything.  Is that healthy and fair?  I would still say no, but it is perfectly acceptable.  Today we have massive drain dominance (even more than is the norm for Vintage) with over 40% of top 8s winning nearly 70% of the tournaments.  Is that fair.  Only if your as screwed up as Manson or Gein.  But blue archetypes have been the ones being fed more new strategies lately, so the meta hasn't really had the proper chances to adapt as the format has been constantly rocked.

I would go so far as to say that the last time we had a wide open field AND no deck was winning disproportionately to its showings in top 8s was when trinisphere was unrestricted, too bad that is too unfun to ever come off the list.

Whether or not the DCI acts should give us some insight into which part of their own argument holds more weight, deck to deck diversity or strategic dominance.

[Smmenen]

What I can not understand is if drains are dominanting @40% and Workshops dropped to 10%

Why is it that people haven't audibled to Dark Rituals?

Rituals good match-up is everywhere and its bad match-up has lost ground.

People have switched, but they just aren't winning with Rituals.

It's amazing how much 'fundamental attribution errors' are imputed to the data.  You aren't the first person.   That's one of the reasons I select 33 player tournaments as the cut off - so that a player will be forced to face at least 4 players in the swiss, at a mimimum, and so that every archetype has a chance to be represented.   Almost every 33 player tournament will have a minimum of 1 Ritual player, 1 Ichorid, etc.   The problem is that the Ritual decks just aren't winning.

Ritual decks actually came out of the gate quite strong.   TPS was the most successful archetype in the Sept/October data.

If I had disaggregated this data by month even further you would see that Ritual decks were trending upward from the moment of the June 20 restrictions until the printing of Shards of Alara.   I think that a number of factors hurt Rituals:

1) Ethersworn Canonist.   It is easily spashable into a Tez SB, and LSV ran it. Cards like this hurt Rituals. 

2) Time Vault.   Previous Drain decks were Control Slaver, Painter, etc. and Ritual decks murdered these.    Time Vault sped up Drain decks to where they are just a little bit slower than Gifts deck used to be. 

Notice that Ritual decks destroyed all of the old Drain decks EXCEPT Meandeck Gifts, which actually beat it out.  Similar situation is here.
3) Mystic Remora.    The advent of this card, and Commandeer, has contributed to the decline in Rituals.  

We had a perfectly healthy metagame, and now we don't.  

Isn't there more than the results to consider when you think of a healthy format?  According to the DCI they axed gush because every deck that used gush was within 10-15 cards of each other and that they perceived that gush based archetypes were too powerful.

The first part of that can not truly be said of mana drain decks.  Even during gifts era drain decks had a wide berth in their card choices.

The second part is where it gets a little interesting.  While gush decks only made out roughly 1/4 of the meta, they were winning nearly half of everything.  Is that healthy and fair?  I would still say no, but it is perfectly acceptable.  Today we have massive drain dominance (even more than is the norm for Vintage) with over 40% of top 8s winning nearly 70% of the tournaments.  Is that fair.  Only if your as screwed up as Manson or Gein.  But blue archetypes have been the ones being fed more new strategies lately, so the meta hasn't really had the proper chances to adapt as the format has been constantly rocked.

I would go so far as to say that the last time we had a wide open field AND no deck was winning disproportionately to its showings in top 8s was when trinisphere was unrestricted, too bad that is too unfun to ever come off the list.

Whether or not the DCI acts should give us some insight into which part of their own argument holds more weight, deck to deck diversity or strategic dominance.

 

Well put.   Also, I misspoke.  I did not mean to suggest that the metagame was 'perfectly healthy.'   Rather, it was much more diverse, which is an important factor to health. 

Again, my view is that the DCI just should have restricted Merchant Scroll, and maybe Scroll/Brainstorm/Ponder.   If they had left Gush and Flash alone, Mana Drains would not be as pronounced and Workshop decks would have more to feed on with Gush decks still about.   

[FlyFlySideOfFry]

Not at all.   There are a number of Tez decks that run 2 Welders and no Mindslaver, especially in the early months of Tez. 

Sorry, Slaver the deck/strategy not Mindslaver the card. XD

So you're saying for what, 6 months everybody in the world piloting Tezzeret has been getting scrubs and good pairings? REALLY? Smmenen isn't an idiot he wouldn't be concerned if Drains had just been at the top for a month or so and then the meta adjusted to beat it. The meta HASN'T adjusted which likely signals it CAN'T adjust because people are obviously TRYING. It also seems that you're arbitrarily raging at deck naming which I think is illegal on TMD. Tezz is just a 4-letter word for "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A" and clearly nobody is going to type out all that crap every time just to please the minority of nitpickers like you.

So if basing restrictions/unrestrictions on T-8 and tournament winning performances is wrong how do we do it then? Roll a dice? Flip a coin?

Go the flame, and go the bad interpretation of what i said... I just wanted to point that a classification on a win condition isn't a good way to speack of a metagame health. Sorry if it wasn't clear. I'm sorry to say that, i don't care of deck names, but under what you call  "Drain control not running Mystic Remora or Goblin Welder that wins VIA Key/Vault as plan A" there are alot of different builds, and when we speack of a dominant deck, it would perhaps be interesting to be sure of the classification. Proof is that even if Steve classified the winning deck of LEvallois as both tezzeret and remora deck, for me it remains a pure remora build, when the most etablished Tezzeret archetype is a thirst for knowledge deck.
Another exemple : I saw since Bazaar of Moxen, some build including Intuition/AK engine, with Vault/Key kill. IS it a tezzeret deck ? No it's exactly a Drain Tendrils deck with a different kill, and should be classified as drain tendrils, as it uses the same Engine. If you can't understand that, okay keep on insulting me thinking that i care of deck names.

And perhaps you should ask yourself WHY THE META DIDN'T ADAPT ? I can tell you that on the Paris Vintage Scene, the meta HAS adaptated, and tezzeret is FAR TO BE the dominant deck. GObelins, Ichorid, Selkie fish, all those strategies are strong against tezzeret, and guess what ? People play them ALOT and win tournaments with them where i play.

Let's try to analyse vintage format since the begining of what i call "modern vintage" : Since mirrodin bloc, which clearly revolutioned vintage archetype and decks.
You seem to forget something in your analysis : since the Trinisphere restriction, drain decks ALLWAYS dominated the format, with only a 6 monthes exception : Flash and Gush engines. What does this mean ? It means that when you don't have an overpowered spell in the format (I speack of clearly overpowered card, such as Gush/Flash/Trinisphere) drain is allways dominant. 

"You shouldn't name decks after their win condition. Now about Drain TENDRILS."  If you don't care about deck names I suggest you just say so rather than having 1/2 your post arguing over deck names because this isn't the place to do so. The bottom line is if a deck does everything exactly the same as another deck it doesn't matter if it chooses to draw a bunch of cards with TfK or chooses to draw them with Intuition/AK. That is a meta call for he exact same deck where Intuition/AK is slower but stronger while TfK is faster and weaker.

You keep talking about "the meta has adapted" and yet you have no solid proof of that while Smmenen has months of data in pretty graphs proving exactly the opposite of what you're saying. Post some proof or stop saying that the meta is handling the Drain problem just fine.

And I think that we dont have the same meaning of a dominant deck.... When i say that tezzeret doesn't dominate in Europe, it's not because the deck doesn't make somegood results, it's because it's not as played as slaver or gifts have been played during their domination days, and as forFrance, it only performs as a win ocndition in some innovative control builds from Greatest french players. I have seen so many middle players taking the deck and doing bad with it, just because even if a deck is as strong as you think it is, it doesn't win by itself.

Good players playing good decks do better than bad players playing good decks. What exactly is your point? If a deck is 90% of the metagame you'll have the same situation. Back in Burning Long days it was the same. Does that mean we should unrestrict LED/Burning Wish?

Ha and a last thing that no one talked about : If you get one more Restriction on the mana drain decks, beside removing the absurd Vault/Key combo, you can be sure that any creature based strategy will be dead, as the metagame will be Ritual (with anti-artefact cardsmaindeck) vs Shop. It's important to keep Mana drain as it is, without unfair win conditions, just to keep a 3 way metagame.

Creature decks can prey on combo and shops infinitely easier than they can against a Drain deck whos win conditions cost 1-3 mana. I don't see why creature decks wouldn't do remarkably well in a non-Drain meta. Not to mention if you restrict Drain (which I DON'T think should be done) then blue based control decks don't die. They just adapt to combo/control rather than control/combo.

..Neonico Point of view concerning the EU metagame is actually very close to our real EU metagame..
.. we have hade seasons when Drains were more played than now..
.. and solutions against vault/key can be found in EU tournament lists..

.. we can not say anyway that drain+thirsts+vault/key combo is not dominating at least USA metagame which is spoiling the format itself..
.. so i think that maybe an action from DCI is needed.. and it's absolutely not easy to find which will be the best answer to this situation..

the only thing i hope is that this time DCI take small steps.. and don't restrict/unrestrict many cards at once like when they restricted merchant/ponder/brainstorm etc all at once..
a step by step approach i think will avoid situations like the one we have now.. that is a son of the last DCI actions (in my opinion)

CARONDIMONIO

Feel free to post a list that can dominate Drains without folding to combo, Ichorid, and other Fish lists. I'm yet to see one though I'd be glad to take Drains off the top for a while if one ever emerged.

I think the simplest way to put this is Vintage is supposed to be about 4 pillars. No 1 pillar is ever supposed to dominate the others the way Drains are right now. Either the DCI gives up (like their last B/R announcement suggests they have) or they fix the problem and get the pillars back to where they were last May/June.

[Neonico]

The metagame now is alot more diverse than it was during gifts and Gush/flash Eras.....
At least here in Europe.

Just to give you more input Steve : I asked on solomoxen.com what french player think of the European Metagame now :
Actually, it's 100% Diverse and more balanced than pre restrictions or during gifts era. It's nice to have some detailled articles with statistical tools, but when people go to a tournament, only 10/15% of them top8, so they can face alot more different decks, and see alot more diversity than your analysis show.

Okay i'll try one last time to explain you because it semms that you don't want to understand my point :

You keep talking about "the meta has adapted" and yet you have no solid proof of that while Smmenen has months of data in pretty graphs proving exactly the opposite of what you're saying. Post some proof or stop saying that the meta is handling the Drain problem just fine.

Smennen use TOP 8 ONLY datas.... I have ALOT of proofs that it's not accurate when you consider ENTIRE TOURNAMENTS. All the tournaments i played this year, except one, in France and several other European countries, prove that Drain isn't dominant deck in number nor in results. You can't reduce a metagame to just decks that top8, simply for one reason : Drain decks were alot more played in france during Slaver/Gifts Era and had less top8 showing. And what is the result ? Every player i know thought those day that the metagame was boring, because out of 7 rounds, it was 5 gifts mirror or 4 slaver mirrors. This DOESN'T EXIST anymore in Europe.

And as a proof still, if you read french, go on solomoxen.com, Vintage-discussion section, and read what french players think of the actual meta : Actually, 100% of the answering payers say : diverse and balanced metagame. If it's not more a proof than just Top8 statistics....

Bonus section : A list designed to beat all the top tiers actually played in France :
    1  Strip Mine
    4  Wasteland
    7  Mountain
    3  Bloodstained Mire
    2  Wooded Foothills
    2  Barbarian Ring
    3  Goblin Warchief
    1  Simian Spirit Guide
    1  Siege-Gang Commander
    4  Goblin Lackey
    2  Goblin Ringleader
    3  Mogg Fanatic
    1  Stingscourger
    4  Goblin Piledriver
    2  Goblin Matron
    1  Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
    1  Vexing Shusher
    1  Goblin Vandal
    3  Goblin Tinkerer
    1  Goblin Sharpshooter
    4  AEther Vial
    1  Black Lotus
    1  Mox Ruby
    3  Crash
    2  Red Elemental Blast
    2  Pyroblast

// Sideboard
SB: 4  Tormod's Crypt
SB: 3  Goblin Bombardment
SB: 3  Pulverize
SB: 4  Pyrostatic Pillar
SB: 1  Pyrokinesis

Roll over Vault/Key decks, has a solid mathup against shop with all the artefact hate maindeck, has a chance game 1 and is favorable against ichorid G2-3, destroys fish (because being gobelins) and is okay against combo post board (only matchup not adressed maindeck)
This isn't the last list, which include /b for Warren's weirding because of leviathan has been printed since this tournament.

[Bongo]

Please don't speak of behalf of all European players. I'm sure there are people that don't have the same opinion as you have.
I for one strongly agree that Drain strategies are absolutely dominating, both in numbers and performance. The metagame has been stagnant for quite a while, and I would be very open to any change on the B&R List.

[Akuma]

I honestly don't think restriction(s) would make any difference at this point. I don't want to see anything restricted, but if hypothetically speaking, something got the axe (Mana Drain or Thirst for Knowledge), would that really change anything? Probably not.

Only through the introduction of more viable strategies (unrestrictions or new printings) will we have an actual metagame, instead of Drains vs. other irrelevant junk.

Aside: Thanks Steve for the articles you keep writing. They contain the only thing that seems to be worth discussing about Vintage these days.

[wiley]

The metagame now is alot more diverse than it was during gifts and Gush/flash Eras.....
At least here in Europe.

Just to give you more input Steve : I asked on solomoxen.com what french player think of the European Metagame now :
Actually, it's 100% Diverse and more balanced than pre restrictions or during gifts era. It's nice to have some detailled articles with statistical tools, but when people go to a tournament, only 10/15% of them top8, so they can face alot more different decks, and see alot more diversity than your analysis show.

Maybe it is just the American mindset to be more results oriented than anything else, maybe it is just that the top 8 is all that we have access to, but if you see a trend in the strategy that can make top 8 and, more importantly, win a tournament even when everyone plays an almost unique deck then there is still a problem in my view.

I would truly be sad to learn that the top vintage player in France is so much better than everyone else that it doesn't matter what deck he plays, he would still win the tournament.  I don't believe that the fact that Jean-Baptiste Aymes is the best vintage player in France is the only reason he was able to take the most powerful and dominant strategy in current Vintage to the top spot in that tournament.

I also find it even more disturbing that you say that drains are not that widely played in Europe.  At least in places like New England we can point a finger at the fact that the entire community trends towards drains to explain some of the engine's dominance.  Apparently in Europe drains just clean up all of the chaff despite players best efforts to the contrary.  Not being able to read French is almost a blessing if it means I can't confirm such depressing trends.

[Neonico]

Just as a proof of diversity, and because we had a great tournament in Francelast Week, the top8 just has been posted :
http://solomoxen.com/forum/index.php?topic=9988.msg93554#msg93554

1 shop
1 Wizards  fish
1 Ichorid
2 Drain Tendrils (1 including Vault/Key over tendrils)
1 Bant Fish
1 Painter
1 Remora/Confidant control deck (not including Vault/Key but tendrils)

I try one last time, hopeyou'll get it this time :
Okay you have 15 mana drains in top8, but in 3 different archetypes, and a very diverse top8.
For me, that means that drain being dominant in number is a fact, but doesn't mean that one strategy only dominates the feild. Drain dominates but this top8 is still very diverse.
one more interesting thing to notice : only one deck having the Vault/Key combo.....

And i don't even speack of all the decks i saw during the rounds....

I never saidthat drains aren't played, i said that in France at least, there are less played that they used to be.

[Deathknight]

Just to add a few things on what Neonico said on the European meta.

To give an example of what kind of deck can beat Drain decks... With other French players we tested the Selkie deck (designed mainly by Stormanimagus and Harlequin, thanks again to them) at the last European tournament (BOM III, with 351 players and 9 rounds before top8). One made 1st at a small tournament 2 weeks before (5 rounds + top8). Only two of us brought the deck to the BOM 3 tournament. Our results were 6th and 24th (2nd and 24th in the rounds). I lost to an Aggroshop in the 1/8 (the tournament winner actually).
During our testings and tournaments, what did we see ? We consistently beat Drain strategy currently used : Remora.dec, Tezz.dec. The deck with our sideboard has a highly favorable MU against Ichorid in G2 and G3. Shop MU is tougher. And U-based Fish are a slightly favorable MU. Oath is terrible match however.
We spent all the day beating Drain decks, and guess what guys ? The deck is really fun to play.
For one thing, this deck is a very good US innovation. Should you really want to beat Drain decks, why don't we see more Fishs decks in your meta ?

We always speak of the bias of the best players playing the best deck. I really think that we miss a point : overall, the best players won't often play hate decks. They would rather play Control decks because they think it is funnier than playing with a bunch of creatures. The Vintage community has also a sheep behaviour. And until a well-known player in your community advocates a Fish deck or put a solid result with a deck like this, fewer people will invest time in designing, testing and playing Fish decks, whereas it is currently a rewarding strategy.

My 2 deniers.

[LotusHead]

@Steve Thanks for posting a graph

@whoever:

Strategic Reap/Painter (anti blue control deck) (also really neat!)

Could you post a link to a list? (or PM me one?)

[Deathknight]

Admit that Mana Drain decks are dominating unlike anything has dominated before, but that you are happy about that fact.

You think this is ok:



That is not OK. 

I forgot to thank you Steve for the work you put in collecting and analysing this data.
Rather than a sharp increase in Drain decks and a decrease in other competing decks, I view your data in a different way :
- where there were 2 blue decks based on Gush and Drain (25%+15%), the same players are using now only Drain (40%+). However Drain category encompasses different builds. In fact, they are as different as Gush and so-called Drain decks were during the Gush era. Remora, Tezz and Painter should be listed separatedly to have a fare comparison
- surely, the Shop decks dropped from 25% to 15%. At the same time, Ichorid numbers increased from 5% to 15%. It is only my opinion, I think that Ichorid would have higher numbers, should the Vintage community as a whole think that Ichorid is a true deck, requiring true build and play skills to win tournaments. As Shop was the natural hater of Gush decks, Ichorid could be the hater of Drain decks. So now, you have two archetypes at 15%, facing a broad category of Drain decks. We can't reduce the metagame to one Drain deck dominating at 40%+ and Ichorid only other deck at a significant level.
- where are the Fishs decks ? in the remaining 20%+. I still think the issue lies here. Some Fish builds have currently a strategic advantage against Control decks relying on Moxen, Vault+Key, Tinker and Remora (not exclusive, nor exhaustive). However, these decks are clearly underplayed compared to their potential (shown by too few results in the US and in EU). I don't see the best players switching overnight to a Fish build to beat the current meta full of Control decks. Moreover, in a proxy environment, who wants to play a Fish deck (6 power cards, but no broken cards outside) when we can play decks that give us a feeling of power and brokeness ? Too few again.

As a lot of people in France, I really think that the problem is not the dominance of Drain decks (which is true) : we have answers, it is up to the players to use them. However, the Vault+Key is just completely stupid, unfun and quite boring. Once it hits the table, you have no chance of finding a solution anymore (and it is easier than Tendrill to pull off) unless you have a Rod on the table (Tinker has solution after it is cast).

[Stormanimagus]

Just to add a few things on what Neonico said on the European meta.

To give an example of what kind of deck can beat Drain decks... With other French players we tested the Selkie deck (designed mainly by Stormanimagus and Harlequin, thanks again to them) at the last European tournament (BOM III, with 351 players and 9 rounds before top8). One made 1st at a small tournament 2 weeks before (5 rounds + top8). Only two of us brought the deck to the BOM 3 tournament. Our results were 6th and 24th (2nd and 24th in the rounds). I lost to an Aggroshop in the 1/8 (the tournament winner actually).
During our testings and tournaments, what did we see ? We consistently beat Drain strategy currently used : Remora.dec, Tezz.dec. The deck with our sideboard has a highly favorable MU against Ichorid in G2 and G3. Shop MU is tougher. And U-based Fish are a slightly favorable MU. Oath is terrible match however.
We spent all the day beating Drain decks, and guess what guys ? The deck is really fun to play.
For one thing, this deck is a very good US innovation. Should you really want to beat Drain decks, why don't we see more Fishs decks in your meta ?

We always speak of the bias of the best players playing the best deck. I really think that we miss a point : overall, the best players won't often play hate decks. They would rather play Control decks because they think it is funnier than playing with a bunch of creatures. The Vintage community has also a sheep behaviour. And until a well-known player in your community advocates a Fish deck or put a solid result with a deck like this, fewer people will invest time in designing, testing and playing Fish decks, whereas it is currently a rewarding strategy.

My 2 deniers.

Thanks for the acknowledgment on the deck Deathknight!

I think most of the points you bring up are absolutely true. There's no reason that Fish can't be closer to Tier 1 if that is truly what it takes to correct the imbalance in the Vintage Metagame scene. People always argue that "You have to play flawlessly and not make mistakes to win with Fish against a powered field of netdecks" but I posit in response to that "don't you have to play well to win with ANY deck?" I think Fish gets a bum rap sometimes because it is a deck filled with creatures that beat for the win while also simultaneously serving as "answers" and many players don't find that terribly exciting.

I would want to bring up a couple deck-design things with you though.

First off: Yes, Oath is a bad matchup. But I firmly believe that 4 MD Qasali Pridemage help shore it up and then SB Ray of Revelation x1 or 2 is also a big help. Basically, you just need to get one of those to resolve because then you should be able to race them before they can find another copy of Oath to push through your mana-denial and counter wall.

Secondly: I don't think Ichorid is going to be ever a fantastic matchup simply because we don't cut off the number of turns they need to win the way combo does AND we don't have the best hate (Yixlid Jailer, Extirpate, Leyline Of The Void). Ichorid, while being a fantastic deck, is also very simple to beat because the strategy they employ is so linear. Ichorid is the closest thing we have right now to a pure combo deck and if you disrupt the combo for long enough you should win. The problem is that Fish wins slowly and too often gives a combo engine deck time to recover. This is why I think TPS is probably the second hardest matchup for Fish or even ANT.

We do have ways of interacting with Ichorid (Wasteland, Stifle, Qasali Pridemage, Children Of Korlis, Pithing Needle, Tormod's Crypt, Relic Of Progenitus, Jotun Grunt, Wheel of Sun and Moon, etc.) that are all in the colors of GUW but none of them will truly go all the way if we can't also win the game in a timely fashion and I just don't see Tarmogoyf getting the job done through a wall of 2/2 critters. If Tarmogoyf had trample that might make things different, but I just don't see GUW having a favorable matchup against Ichorid because of the lack of a fast clock.

Honestly, I love GUW Selkie-Slam Fish strategies, but I am also considering that a great deck choice right now could also be a well tweaked Ad Nauseam Tendrils list with Jailers in the SB as well as Tinker + Sundering Titan or Inkwell Leviathan.

I think it is one of the few decks that really can abuse Dark Confidant in the MD and it has the capability to win on turn 1 or 2 while also being able to explode in to a game-winning Ad Nauseam from just about no where. Being able to run 3-4 Chain Of Vapor can also be huge in the matchups where its relevant. I'm gonna test the deck a bit, because I think it is another solid candidate for the current metagame.

[quentin]

I'd like to make different points.

Thirst, from what I understand of the discussion (not having a scg account), I think Smennen is not looking at the right side of the problem, by focussing the discussion on drain and thirst when these cards are not really vital to the archetypes they support. Look at the BOM top8 with twice intuition+AK engines, or the number of lists that don't even pack 4 drains (the 3 left being replaced by 1 plus two counterspells/negates/whatever, would it really make a difference ?). The fact that these cards are everywhere in control decks is because they remain the best options to take, but it doesn't mean replacing them with their slightly "not as great" counterparts would make the archetype less dominant.
The control archetype has always attracted a lot of players being, obviously, the one offering the most control on the game, but why is there so much more people playing it nowadays ? Not because of drains and thirsts which have been here forever. Because of vault/key. Vault/key gives control the ultimate kill, the one that doesn't give the opportunity to the opponent to do anything at all. Vault/key gives control a 4 colorless manas kill (even better as it's actuelly 2+1+1) that's tutorable with basically everything and more. Vault/key makes gift an instant kill card in control, and makes tinker, one of the stupidest cards in vintage, even more stupid. Vault/key allows control not to need splash a third color anymore like gift was in its time splashing red for recoup, making its manabase, one of the most common angles to fight the archetype, stronger than ever. It is because control got this kill that there is so much more people playing it.

It's not really surprising that Steve who advocated the return of vault in vintage (from oblivion whatever ) has trouble realizing this is the real problem and touching drain/thirst/whatever won't solve it.

Is Tezzeret dominating ? "Tezz" means nothing. there's remora tezz, AK tezz, thirst tezz, confidant tezz, tezz here, tezz there. What's dominating ? Vault/key. It is the common denominator of all "tezz" variants, and even non-tezz decks (shaymora being one, but vault/key is now appearing all over the place in tps or basically any deck with a good tutor support). No one can say "tezz" dominates because there's so many things behind this "name", but what's for sure is that vault/key dominates.

As I see it vault is the reason of multiple problems in this meta.
- In terms of deckbuilding, it drastically reduces the options available to control (or even combo) deckbuilders, making the building experience much less interesting. Why would one play magus of the future, or dream halls, when he can play tezzeret ? Why play mindslaver and control my opponent turn when i can prevent him from having another turn ? Why play drain tendrils, a deck with a complex storm kill that has trouble when facing graveyard hate or spheres, when I can replace the storm kill with a simple super-flexible 4 mana kill that is not sensitive to this type of hate ? The availability of vault/key limits so much the options and completely obliterates an enormous number of potential strategies because it is just plain better.
- In terms of deckbuilding for other strategies, vault/key also impacts the other decks dramatically. Basically every deck but combo has to gesticulate with their list to be able not to die instantly on vault/key, making their own strategy less potent and their other matchups worse. Is it bothering anyone else that basically no aggro strategy is played without null rod ?
- Finally, vault/key is boring and frustrating. It's boring to the player using it "hey, here's vault, let's tutor key, GG" and frustrating for the opponent who's not given the opportunity to react, the combo often leaving the feeling to both sides that the game win wasn't "deserved". Everyone got killed some time by a first turn tinker on colossus, a very frustrating experience indeed. Well vault/key  feels the same, but only worse, because you don't even get those two turns you had to find a solution for the big guy or win even faster. I'm personnally convinced that vault/key in the meta degrades the experience and fun of play for both the players running it and their opponents, making the overall experience of play vintage less interesting and entertaining.

I don't have a solution for the problem, somehow banning vault or re-errating it would seem like a step backwards, yet I can't help but think it would be good for vintage. I sometimes regret the gush meta even though flash was in it because apart from this matchup it was much more fun to play in than the current one.

We are many over here in France to beleive that unrestrictions are the way to go, and that unrestricting a number of non-blue cards would be a very interesting move for vintage magic in general (there are many candidates like crop rotation, entomb, fastbond, burning wish or even balance, but that's not the right place to discuss this).

As two final points :
- I find it sad that such articles which I'm sure are interesting and concern the vintage community as a whole (especially considering the fact that TMD is probably the reference forum for wizards/the dci regarding vintage) have restricted access (let's face it very few non-US players have SCG memberships).
- I find the few posters in this thread who posted comments on the innovation being all made in the US and the euros being basically a bunch of followers both laughable and just plain wrong. A lag of a few months between the euro meta and the US one ? Look again mate, even a few months later, they're still different, just because of that, they're *different*. The proxy/nonproxy environments are one of the reasons for this, the fact that the US community has evangelists and followers is another, but please don't say the innovation is all done in the US, because it makes you, and by extension this community as a whole look like scornful pretentious ***** (I'll leave the *s to your imagination).

[Caron]

.. what if int the Tezz lists you change things like this:
 time vault --> 1 grindstone
vault key -->1 painter's servant

won't you have a same two pieces combo killing the opponent in the same turn if ou can activate it or in the next turn? and you can use transmutate artifact, tinker, and all the other tutors to use it (tezz too)...

so is it really timevault/key the problem quentin?

CARONDIMONIO

[Bongo]

What's dominating ? Vault/key. It is the common denominator of all "tezz" variants, and even non-tezz decks (shaymora being one, but vault/key is now appearing all over the place in tps or basically any deck with a good tutor support).

Actually, it's not Vault/Key, it's Mana Drain that is the common denominator.
For recent results, just look at the Top8 of the Bazaar tournament (or any other tournaments in the last months for that matter). Mana Drain is THE card.


Also:

(let's face it very few non-US players have SCG memberships).

Do you have proof of this? I suspect there are quite a few European players who have an account (especially those interested in the ProTour).

[fury]

.. what if int the Tezz lists you change things like this:
 time vault --> 1 grindstone
vault key -->1 painter's servant

won't you have a same two pieces combo killing the opponent in the same turn if ou can activate it or in the next turn? and you can use transmutate artifact, tinker, and all the other tutors to use it (tezz too)...

so is it really timevault/key the problem quentin?

CARONDIMONIO

The main difference is the cost of the combo :

Painter/grindstone => 6 manas
Vault/Key => 4 manas

Actually, it's not Vault/Key, it's Mana Drain that is the common denominator.
For recent results, just look at the Top8 of the Bazaar tournament (or any other tournaments in the last months for that matter). Mana Drain is THE card.

It is an assumption that needs to be justified. How Mana Drain generates an unbalanced Vintage format ? We have already said that the arguments on tournaments' results and top 8 are not strong enough, because tournaments' results are biased. It is normal to see a lot of Mana Drain decks, as everyone is playing it. Does that mean that Mana Drain is unbalancing the Vintage metagame ? I'm not sure of it. Let us let the metagame adapt itself to these, before changing the B&R List. We, french players, don't say anything else.

[Odd mutation]

.. what if int the Tezz lists you change things like this:
 time vault --> 1 grindstone
vault key -->1 painter's servant

won't you have a same two pieces combo killing the opponent in the same turn if ou can activate it or in the next turn? and you can use transmutate artifact, tinker, and all the other tutors to use it (tezz too)...

so is it really timevault/key the problem quentin?

CARONDIMONIO

I'd have to agree with Quentin a lot. Take away Time Vault and see what happens to the metagame! I don't think Mana Drain is the problem...

Painter's Servant-Grindstone is definitely not the same thing as Time Vault-Voltaic Key. The Painter combo is easier to disrupt, by Gaea's Blessing for example, and costs more to play from your hand:  . That's a big difference!
Also, Tezzeret, The Seeker and Time Vault is enough to ruin your day. You still need both Painter's Servant and Grindstone to make it work.

Robrecht.

[quentin]

.. what if int the Tezz lists you change things like this:
 time vault --> 1 grindstone
vault key -->1 painter's servant
won't you have a same two pieces combo killing the opponent in the same turn if ou can activate it or in the next turn? and you can use transmutate artifact, tinker, and all the other tutors to use it (tezz too)...

First, it's two more mana.
Second, painter is a creature, and so sensitive to much more removal than a plain artefact.
Third, commonly played decks have maindeck strategies that hose this one (primarily, oath, with krosan/will or blessing).
Fourth, a very simple sideboard strategy (a random blessing) hoses this strategy. If painters were played in the same numbers as vault/key is, you'd see blessings flourish in SBs.

Actually, it's not Vault/Key, it's Mana Drain that is the common denominator.
For recent results, just look at the Top8 of the Bazaar tournament (or any other tournaments in the last months for that matter). Mana Drain is THE card.

What about fow then ? Seriously, what I meant is that vault/key is what brought the existing control strategies to dominating "more" than they were before. There were DTs lists top8ing in the gush era too, there's no reason they'd disappear (although I'm curious as to why run the toa kill other the vault one). But vault/key allows these decks to win games that they would have lost before, upping the number of control decks that post results and attracting more people to the archetype.

Quote from: quentin on Today at 05:15:21 AM
(let's face it very few non-US players have SCG memberships).

Do you have proof of this? I suspect there are quite a few European players who have an account (especially those interested in the ProTour).

What I meant was "in the vintage community", very few non-US players have SCG memberships. I can't tell for standard/extended/protour players, I'd guess there are probably a lot more of them, but I can tell that in the T1 community (which I know pretty well, and which is not the same people as the standard/extended community) very few in France have SCG memberships (the only one I know of being neonico who posted in this thread).

[Neonico]

.. what if int the Tezz lists you change things like this:
 time vault --> 1 grindstone
vault key -->1 painter's servant

won't you have a same two pieces combo killing the opponent in the same turn if ou can activate it or in the next turn? and you can use transmutate artifact, tinker, and all the other tutors to use it (tezz too)...

so is it really timevault/key the problem quentin?

CARONDIMONIO

I would say : Vault => Tendrils, and Key => Chain of Vapor (assuming you have allready a rebuild/Hurkyl's recall somewhere in your deck), and you will have the same results for tyhe control combo decks.
The real problem is here in my honest opinion :
When you build any control deck in vintage, with FoW, drains, 4-6 slots for Draw spells, restricted bombs, tinker package and bounces, you just have 3 or 4 tunable slots left in your deck, for alternate win condition, support and more protection. That leave very few place to innovation.

One other thing about Mana Drain : for me, having a really big experience with those decks in both testings and tournaments, there is a really important evolution in the mana drain use. Because control combo decks evolved in a less brutal version (thanx to brainstrom restrict) the mana from the mana drain is ALOT less revelant than it was in the gifts deck era. For example, i allmost never drained something T2 or 3 just to have the mana during my next main phase, when it was a more common play in Slaver of Gifts deck.
What i say here is perhaps false for painter and drain tendrils decks but for any other drain build, i tend to think that in 85% of the play situations, a 1 drain 3 counterspell (or REB, or misdirection or whatever other counterspell you can imagine) wouldn't hurt my plays.

The most logical unrestriction to fight seriously drain decks would be to unrestrict balance... The real problem about this unrestriction is that a 4 balance deck would WRECK any creature based strategie. For me, it would give a less diverse metagame than it is actually.
But i repeat what i first said in this thread : What Smennen called the Vintage Glue, Force of Will, is for me the main tool of the blue based strategies dominance. It is the card i would consider restricting if i do something.

bonus section : Once again, good french innovation :
Strategic Reaper, by Benjamin guillerm aka Watanoob in France
        1  Polluted Delta
        3  Tropical Island
        3  Volcanic Island
        4  Flooded Strand
        5  Island
        1 [CNF] Inkwell Leviathan
        2  Goblin Welder
        4  Painter's Servant
        1  Black Lotus
        1  Grindstone
        1  Lotus Petal
        1 [] Mana Crypt
        1  Mox Emerald
        1  Mox Ruby
        1  Mox Sapphire
        1  Sol Ring
        1  Ancestral Recall
        1 [] Brainstorm
        1  Fire/Ice
        1  Gifts Ungiven
        1  Mystical Tutor
        2  Reap
        2  Red Elemental Blast
        3  Pyroblast
        3  Thirst for Knowledge
        4  Force of Will
        4  Mana Drain
        1  Merchant Scroll
        1  Regrowth
        1  Time Walk
        1  Tinker
        3  Strategic Planning
SB:  1  Relic of Progenitus
SB:  1  Pithing Needle
SB:  2  Rebuild
SB:  2  Naturalize
SB:  2  Tormod's Crypt
SB:  2  Ancient Grudge
SB:  3  Pyroclasm
SB:  2  Red Elemental Blast

His last evolution of the deck :
        1  Polluted Delta
        3  Tropical Island
        3  Volcanic Island
        4  Flooded Strand
        5  Island
        1 [CNF] Inkwell Leviathan
        2  Goblin Welder
        4  Painter's Servant
        1  Black Lotus
        2  Grindstone
        1  Lotus Petal
        1 [] Mana Crypt
        1  Mox Emerald
        1  Mox Ruby
        1  Mox Sapphire
        1  Sol Ring
        1  Ancestral Recall
        1 [] Brainstorm
        1  Fire/Ice
        1  Gifts Ungiven
        1  Mystical Tutor
        2  Reap
        2  Red Elemental Blast
        3  Pyroblast
        3  Thirst for Knowledge
        4  Force of Will
        4  Mana Drain
        1  Merchant Scroll
        1  Regrowth
        1  Time Walk
        1  Tinker
        1  Strategic Planning
        1  Intuition
SB:  1  Relic of Progenitus
SB:  1  Pithing Needle
SB:  2  Rebuild
SB:  2  Naturalize
SB:  3  Tormod's Crypt
SB:  2  Ancient Grudge
SB:  2  Pyroclasm
SB:  2  Red Elemental Blast

Enjoy !

[Watanabe]

Nico, thanks for posting my Reaper deck  (mets là sur Solo plutot !!)

I just want to agree with what Nico, Quentin, Deathknight, and fury said. To me, Drain is not THE problem, and i'd like to say that Vault/Key is just disturbing the metagame.

In fact, I just want to ask you something : Why do you want to restrict or unrestrict a card for the moment ? Since I play Vintage, it's the most interesting metagame I've played.

And if in the USA, you play ONLY against Tezz... why don't you try to build a new deck, totally in adequation with your metagame ?

Concerning our Top8s (I mean in France/Europe), example given just take in count the 1st place, but if you look at all decks played while the Top8 or the tournament, stas will be different.
I mean, if 35 players play Tezz in a tournament during a 45 players tournament... Yes, Tezz will be in Top8, but does it mean that the deck is the best ? It just mean that player want/like to play this deck.

[Guli]

And we come back to the point I made about interpreting statistics.

[wiley]

What about fow then ? Seriously, what I meant is that vault/key is what brought the existing control strategies to dominating "more" than they were before.

Typical mana drain results make up roughly 30% of any given meta that they are present in that doesn't include gush.  They currently make up a little over 40% (51/120) of the meta.  Tez decks (according to smmennen) take up 20% of the meta (24/120).  Tez decks make up 47% of drain decks (24/51).  Tez decks win 47% of tournaments (7/15).  Other drain decks win 20% (3/15) of tournaments.

Looking through the 32 time vault combo decks that placed in 14 of the 15 tournaments (ignoring chicago as the link wasn't there) I see that the typical time vault deck includes:
At least 14 lands (Average ~15), including academy
time vault
1 voltaic key (sometimes 2)
(4-23) mana drain (3-6) (2-1) (0-2)
4 force of will

So only 3 time vault decks could be said to be something other than drain decks.

If you go back and read through the thread it has already been said that we can't ban or etterra time vault again and restricting key would be worthless.  Therefore it is drains that we must look at to see how we might be able to solve the problem through DCI action (I don't believe I have seen any actually preferring restriction, other than the occasional person calling for a ban).

I do disagree with Stephen that restricting thirst would do anything at all.  There is already a varied discipline in draw engines between tez decks, and even then it doesn't do anything to the decks like bomberman, which also use vault/key and drains etc.  It might just be that thirst would have mattered a little a month ago, but now the strongest versions of the deck are hybrids with remora as their biggest draw engine.

Concerning our Top8s (I mean in France/Europe), example given just take in count the 1st place, but if you look at all decks played while the Top8 or the tournament, stas will be different.
I mean, if 35 players play Tezz in a tournament during a 45 players tournament... Yes, Tezz will be in Top8, but does it mean that the deck is the best ? It just mean that player want/like to play this deck.

The problem is that Tez (vault/key.dec, whatever you want to call it) is outperforming everything else by a long shot even when you have, by your (French peoples) own admissions, a) low numbers plaing the deck and b) a lot of people playing decks that are designed to beat them.

@whoever:

Strategic Reap/Painter (anti blue control deck) (also really neat!)

Could you post a link to a list? (or PM me one?)

http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1038 - second place.

[klu]

If mana drain decks are still dominant, it's mostly due to the fact Power Cards : ancestral recal, brainstorm, tinker, mystical, gifts ungiven, merchant scroll and time walk are .... blue.
At the same time, the counterspell plan is the best disruption way to slow down opponents, before playing and defending our threat.
Blue has all : the engine, the tutors, the threats and the disruption.
Now we have to say that your whole article is talking about Blue decks with black splash and we then have all the overpowered blue restricted cards being 3-4 off rather than 1off. Blue can then be consistant even by running only spoilers.

Who cares about manadrain in those conditions ? who cares about thirst for knowledge ?

the ISLAND is the best card of blue based decks. Why not restrict all the cards that lead to it ? Restrict flooded strand and polluted delta. Maybe restrict also underground sea. Now we'll have drain decks with poor mana base and nobody will cry around mana drain anymore.

I'm not saying we have to do it. I'm just telling that restricting manadrain or TFK is a mystake.

My 2 cents.

[Troy_Costisick]

I think it's clearly WRONG.
Qasali war pride in noble fish aggro archetype, and Coatl in control archetype, are both solid answers to Heavy control decks relying on Vault/key combo (and even on Painter/Grindstone combo decks for the Qasali)

You're kidding yourself if you believe this.  Pridemage (not war pride) is a nice fish friend, but IMO, Seal of Primordium, Seal of Cleansing, and Ancient Grudge have failed to impact the current metagame at all despite being tailored made for it.  Null Rod strategies aren't winning any tournaments right now.  Note Steve's really cool graph (btw Steve, it would be nice if you could include Null Rod Decks even if they are flatlined at zero).  So how much difference is this guy going to make?  He brings in white which gives you access to Balance, Enlightened Tutor, Meddling Mage, the aformentioned Seal, Grunt, and StP/PtE.  None of those cards are going to make an impact on the Drain strategy.  How do any of them help you defeat Inkwell?  So you have a marginally better fish that gives you acess to a color hopelessly outclassed by at least three of the others, maybe four.  And since when is a creature ever the answer to Vintage's most dominant strategies?

The Coatl, if anything, will just get dropped in a Drain shell and used there unless some changes are made to the B/R list.  He's just as vulnerable to removal as Dryad and Goyf, but has the drawback of needing two colors of mana to play.  Not only that, Goyf will come back just as big as he was before.  Coatl will not.  That's if he gets used at all.  Right now, I don't see much of an incentive.  Tinker-Leviathan is just too good sound of a strategy to mess with much else.  We'll see down the road, but as of this moment, there is nothing in the last two sets that I see making any kind of dent in the 40%+ dominance of Drains. 

Peace,

-Troy

[Smmenen]

I do disagree with Stephen that restricting thirst would do anything at all.  There is already a varied discipline in draw engines between tez decks, and even then it doesn't do anything to the decks like bomberman, which also use vault/key and drains etc.  It might just be that thirst would have mattered a little a month ago, but now the strongest versions of the deck are hybrids with remora as their biggest draw engine.

History has shown that taking the strongest blue draw engine from blue helps.    When Fact or Fiction was restricted, people resorted to a mix of lesser engines.   

I strongly believe that if Thrist were restricted, it would help, if not enormously, than enough.

Remember, it's a matter of degree.   If Drain decks were to just drop by 8% points, then they would be at around 35%, still very high, but much closer to acceptability.   While Drain decks would substitute to other draw engines, those draw engines are less efficient.

Most Drain decks, even Drain Tendrils, start like this:

4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
3-4 Thirst For Knowledge

In the March data set on Morphling.de,
Guess what the top three most played spells in Vintage were?

http://www.morphling.de/statistics.php?id=2009.3
1.   Force of Will   (363/91/4.0)
2.   Polluted Delta   (279/94/3.0)
3.   Mana Drain   (232/63/3.7)
4.   Underground Sea   (215/77/2.8)
5.   Flooded Strand   (208/85/2.4)
6.   Thirst for Knowledge

Force, Drain, Thirst.

Take Thrist away, and I am certain you will have a slight rebalancing in the format.

- surely, the Shop decks dropped from 25% to 15%. At the same time, Ichorid numbers increased from 5% to 15%.

You are misreading the data.  Ichorid came out of the gate at at 10% and has fluctuated from 10 to 5 to 10 to 5 to 15%.   The ground lost by Workshops has not been made up by Ichorid, not even close. 

Blue decks have become even more dominant since the restriction of Gush and Company, and are now putting up record numbers.

- where are the Fishs decks ? in the remaining 20%+. I still think the issue lies here. Some Fish builds have currently a strategic advantage against Control decks relying on Moxen, Vault+Key, Tinker and Remora (not exclusive, nor exhaustive). However, these decks are clearly underplayed compared to their potential (shown by too few results in the US and in EU). I don't see the best players switching overnight to a Fish build to beat the current meta full of Control decks. Moreover, in a proxy environment, who wants to play a Fish deck (6 power cards, but no broken cards outside) when we can play decks that give us a feeling of power and brokeness ? Too few again.

SO MUCH fundamental attribution error!

People need to stop and realize that this is not about the decks that people choose to play.     Stormanimagus keeps talking about his Selkie deck as if it is the solution, but one tournament does not prove that it is the solution, and other people are playing it, but not winning touraments.    In fact, it's sort of silly that he thinks that that deck is 'the solution' when my Grow deck has as much representation, yet also failed to win the two tournaments in which it top8ed.   

Drains performance is not a function of the number of Drain decks in the field.   Tez decks are actually less than 8% of most tournament fields, and this is obvious from every tournament breakdown we've had.   Yet they are much more represented in Top 8s, and even more represnted in tournament victories.

There were THREE Null Rod Fish decks in the last data set of over 120 decks.   

As a lot of people in France, I really think that the problem is not the dominance of Drain decks (which is true) : we have answers, it is up to the players to use them. However, the Vault+Key is just completely stupid, unfun and quite boring. Once it hits the table, you have no chance of finding a solution anymore (and it is easier than Tendrill to pull off) unless you have a Rod on the table (Tinker has solution after it is cast).

The bottom line is this:

The DCI claimed that the restrictions of June 20 were intended to rebalance the metagame.  Instead, they made things much worse, as I predicted at the time (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/16161_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_MayJune_Vintage_Metagame_Report.html )

Who cares about manadrain in those conditions ? who cares about thirst for knowledge ?

Exactly.

The french players who made their opinion known in this thread are basically making the same two contradictory claims that Neonico was making:

1) Mana Drain based TIme Vault decks can be beaten.

2) Mana Drain decks are dominant, but that's ok.

The claims don't make sense.    Fish decks may have tactical advantages over Mana Drain Tez/Drain Tendrils decks, but they don't win tournaments!   Because they don't win tournaments, you can't say that: oh, the metagame is fine, since these Drain decks can be beaten.   Of course they can be beaten.  That's not the problem!  The problem is that they are still too good!

It is not OK to have Mana Drain decks performing at nearly 50% of Top 8s, especially when a more diverse metagame is possible through BETTER use of the banned and restricted list. 

[Neonico]

@Troy :
How can you compare a 2/2 for 2 exalted with seal of primordium, especially not considering the fact that Selkie has been printed since then ?
I really don't kid myself... Just Try Noble fish with Qasali, + rods + Stifle + Selkie and you'll see how it's easy to beat drain with this decks.
And actually, Noble fish did a really good showing in a 371 players tournament, going 8-1 in swiss and only loosing against the winning shop deck in the 1/4 final, savagely beating alot of drain decks in the swiss.
So no, i'm not kidding myself, but you just showing why Tezz is dominant in number and results : because people dismiss good strategies against those decks before testing them...

The french players who made their opinion known in this thread are basically making the same two contradictory claims that Neonico was making:

1) Mana Drain based TIme Vault decks can be beaten.

2) Mana Drain decks are dominant, but that's ok.

The claims don't make sense.    Fish decks may have tactical advantages over Mana Drain Tez/Drain Tendrils decks, but they don't win tournaments!   Because they don't win tournaments, you can't say that: oh, the metagame is fine, since these Drain decks can be beaten.   Of course they can be beaten.  That's not the problem!  The problem is that they are still too good!

I think that you can't admit that those 2 claims aren't contraditory.

Yes Vault decks can be beaten and yes mana drain dominate and that's okay. And why is it not contradictory ? simply because in france, whoever try to build some decks that can beat consistantly Drain/vault decks allmost ALLWAYS top8 in those tournaments.

The big problem is that not enough people try to find some valuable anti vault strategies, such as 3x maindeck crash in the gobelin list i posted, and when someone such as stormanimagus post an innovative list acheiving this goal, you have reactions such as Troy's one (i don't flame there, hope you will understand what i mean). This mainly comes from that not enough players are regulary testing the format.

[Smmenen]

How can you compare a 2/2 for 2 exalted with seal of primordium, especially not considering the fact that Selkie has been printed since then ?
I really don't kid myself... Just Try Noble fish with Qasali, + rods + Stifle + Selkie and you'll see how it's easy to beat drain with this decks.
And actually, Noble fish did a really good showing in a 371 players tournament, going 8-1 in swiss and only loosing against the winning shop deck in the 1/4 final, savagely beating alot of drain decks in the swiss.
So no, i'm not kidding myself, but you just showing why Tezz is dominant in number and results : because people dismiss good strategies against those decks before testing them...

Fundamental Attribution Error.  The results in the data are not a function of a few individua's decision making.   The data I have reflects the choices of hundreds and hundreds of players, with dozens of Fish decks represented.   If Fish decks were capable of winning tournaments, we would see at LEAST one tournament victory.   

The French keeping invoking the fundamental attribution error.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error
"In attribution theory, the fundamental attribution error (also known as correspondence bias or attribution effect) is a theory describing cognitive tendency to predominantly over-value dispositional, or personality-based, explanations (i.e., attributions or interpretations) for the" tournament outcomes. 

[Neonico]

Well steve, sorry, you're really alot clever than i am and i really don't care. But stop with all those Attribution errors or whatever it is.
We are in real life there.
I don't speack theory there, because theory is also something that can kill the format.
Question is : is there new card that help against Vault/key decks ? Or is there good strategies against those decks ? I think i answered alot better than you did, simply because the fact that a deck isn't top8ing in a tournament NEVER MEANS that it can't beat dominant deck.
Just puut the 2 decks together, play them one aginast the other and see what happens. After that, if a Noble fish deck commes in a tournament, makes 5 rounds, wins 3 drain matchup and loose to ichorid and combo for example, it will not top8, but still does the job : beating drain deck.

the fact is that Noble fish deck have faced alot of scepticism, such as Troy shown in this thread. But it starts doing some results (i tend to think that 1/4 final of a 371 players tournament is enough to compare to any of all of your datas) simply because it starts to rise in numbers.... Let's speack of that in 2 monthes and you'll see that the more people will realize that it beats drain consistantly, the more it will be played and the more it will post results...

And i'm sorry. But i think you're wrong on this " The data I have reflects the choices of hundreds and hundreds of players, with dozens of Fish decks represented.   If Fish decks were capable of winning tournaments, we would see at LEAST one tournament victory." because you don't analyse breackdowns but Top8 or tournaments winning decks only... And how a deck that finish 10th of a tournament is worst than the 8th ? That can't prove anything because of alot of factors. The 8th can have more avoided his bad matchups for example....

[klu]

Why do you want people not to play the best spells of Vintage ?
As i previously said, blue/black just pack the best cards ever printed. People play mana drain because it's just the best counterspell effect available. They play TFK because it's with intuition/AK the only remaining blue draw spell.

But i sware that even if you restrict both of them, people will still play Ub decks. Because they ARE Vintage.