[Free Article] A Snapshot of Modern Vintage

[voltron00x]

Last week, I took a look at the Philly Open IV.  This week, I put the field under the microscope.  With 68 players, this was one of the larger Vintage events in the US in 2009 and probably the last one with more than 64 players that'll happen this year, so the data that the field contains is very valuable in forming an understanding of the current Vintage metagame.

In going through the decklists (of which there were 67 - one was MIA), I tried to focus on information that would be valuable to all Vintage players.  I counted the total number of Null Rods, Dark Confidants, and Wastelands in the field.  I break down the performance for all of the major decks and archetypes, including total % of the field and top 8 penetration.  I look at the virtual top 8 to show the full picture including all the decks with 5 wins.  I count every single piece of Ichorid hate.  I break out the differences in Tezz lists:  the Tinker targets, the use of Confidant, and count the number of Tezz lists with Remora, Repeal, Fact or Fiction, Mystical Tutor, Misdirection, and so on.

I think there's a lot of value in this article for anyone who plays Vintage or is curious about what today's Vintage looks like, and I hope you enjoy it.

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/18384_The_Long_Winding_Road_A_Snapshot_of_Modern_Vintage.html

[Yare]

Great article! I really liked how detailed the breakdown was, in addition to your thoughts.

The only thing I didn't really like was the lack of analysis on Stax, but perhaps there just wasn't enough there to make conclusions, as you said.

[Will]

Loved the article Matt.  It was right up my alley in every aspect especially the breakdown that I always try to figure out of where everyone stood in terms of place at the end of the tournament.  Your article makes me wish I hadn't epic failed in the last 3 rounds to end up with 4 wins after starting out 4-0 with 5cStax.  Something to consider if you do another article like this (which you definitely should) is to look up the pilots of each deck and perhaps state who has previously Top8d with the deck, and maybe even create a criteria for and breakdown the archetypes and standings by "established players" if at all possible.  The Stax breakdown was light but you clearly put more time than was required into this and the end result was fantastic.

[Ummmyeh13]

I was thouroughly disappointed by a distinct lack of charts and graphs. I don't feel as though enough time was placed into developing this kind of article. Along with the points others made i feel that the following topics could've been analyzed:

1) I feel as though the weather could've been touched upon. Over a long course of statistical analysis we can notice if certain deck pilots play better during different temperatures/climates.

2) A study into the eating habits of vintage players can easily be correlated with a mid-tournament survey. I'd wager that tezz pilots would have less time to eat between round (considering how frustrating a gifts pile is to make when you've drawn one of the standard pile inclusions), and would learn toward some meager sustinence like crackers or a half a sandwich. Whereas I fully expect Stax pilots to be the guys haumphing down a grease truck sandwich after dropping 3 "lock" pieces down and hoping that is enough to ensure they're the only one playing magic in their match. Wait what's that? Stax lost the dieroll and his opponent had 2 moxes and a basic? Sorry for challenging your right to gorge, allmighty owner of Mishra's Workshop. My sincerest apologies.

2b) Extending...This same survey could include an option to include a rough guess at the player's IQ. I'd love to see the results of comparative archetype IQ analysis. Tezz vs Dredge. Stax vs Dredge. Dredge vs Ponies. Waffles vs Pancakes. All seem like interesting outcomes.

3) As a general note, I feel that more name drops are warranted. Were starting to develop enough nicknames and regional rivalries that I feel a continuous reference to persons by their accepted monikers is always appreciated. Also I'm sure with help we can invent nicknames for people and make some kind of "nickname:potential finish" ratio.

4) Ala #3 (see above), I hereby deem you Land Lubber Elias.

5) Ala #4 (see above), I feel as though my nicknaming abilites are rather suboptimal. Optionally ignore #4 and #5 at your bidding.

I'm sure there are more things to touch on but I feel like this is a step in the right direction for your articles. Just think, pretty soon, you'll be eclipsing the word count of every other writer on the free side combined. Keep up the positive attitude and positive work ethic.

[FAVO!!!!1]

I was thouroughly disappointed by a distinct lack of charts and graphs. I don't feel as though enough time was placed into developing this kind of article. Along with the points others made i feel that the following topics could've been analyzed:

1) I feel as though the weather could've been touched upon. Over a long course of statistical analysis we can notice if certain deck pilots play better during different temperatures/climates.

2) A study into the eating habits of vintage players can easily be correlated with a mid-tournament survey. I'd wager that tezz pilots would have less time to eat between round (considering how frustrating a gifts pile is to make when you've drawn one of the standard pile inclusions), and would learn toward some meager sustinence like crackers or a half a sandwich. Whereas I fully expect Stax pilots to be the guys haumphing down a grease truck sandwich after dropping 3 "lock" pieces down and hoping that is enough to ensure they're the only one playing magic in their match. Wait what's that? Stax lost the dieroll and his opponent had 2 moxes and a basic? Sorry for challenging your right to gorge, allmighty owner of Mishra's Workshop. My sincerest apologies.

2b) Extending...This same survey could include an option to include a rough guess at the player's IQ. I'd love to see the results of comparative archetype IQ analysis. Tezz vs Dredge. Stax vs Dredge. Dredge vs Ponies. Waffles vs Pancakes. All seem like interesting outcomes.

I can't help but agree with this statement... Since I made my transition from dedicated Dredge player to dedicated Time Vault player, I noticed that my diet has changed as well. No longer do I live in the days where I can go to Wawa and order a decent size lunch, followed by a night of whatever alcahol I can get my greedy hands on. Now my lunch looks like it could have been the remeants of an abortion.

As far as the IQ is concerned, I think Mark Hournang can prove that Dredge players drink more than Tez players, but that has yet to be proven on the Stax players. Stax vs Dredge drinking teams has yet to be playtested. But if you want proof that Dregde drinks more than Tez, just look at the photos in Mark Hournang's facebook. Particularly, his current profile pic. Is that enough proof?

P.S. Love ya Marky lol.

In seriousness, I like Wmagzoo7's suggestion, but I feel like that could be a seperate article. Its not like people are not getting to know the major players in our area, much like people are getting to know the Ohio crew in Menendian's article. Something like this could help a new and/or experienced player get into the mind set of our local champions. Kind of like how the deck techs on Wizards coverage helps a player understand the ins and outs of the best performing decks. But again, it should be a different article.

Good job Matt!

[forcethewill]

I was thouroughly disappointed by a distinct lack of charts and graphs. I don't feel as though enough time was placed into developing this kind of article. Along with the points others made i feel that the following topics could've been analyzed:

1) I feel as though the weather could've been touched upon. Over a long course of statistical analysis we can notice if certain deck pilots play better during different temperatures/climates.

2) A study into the eating habits of vintage players can easily be correlated with a mid-tournament survey. I'd wager that tezz pilots would have less time to eat between round (considering how frustrating a gifts pile is to make when you've drawn one of the standard pile inclusions), and would learn toward some meager sustinence like crackers or a half a sandwich. Whereas I fully expect Stax pilots to be the guys haumphing down a grease truck sandwich after dropping 3 "lock" pieces down and hoping that is enough to ensure they're the only one playing magic in their match. Wait what's that? Stax lost the dieroll and his opponent had 2 moxes and a basic? Sorry for challenging your right to gorge, allmighty owner of Mishra's Workshop. My sincerest apologies.

2b) Extending...This same survey could include an option to include a rough guess at the player's IQ. I'd love to see the results of comparative archetype IQ analysis. Tezz vs Dredge. Stax vs Dredge. Dredge vs Ponies. Waffles vs Pancakes. All seem like interesting outcomes.

I can't help but agree with this statement... Since I made my transition from dedicated Dredge player to dedicated Time Vault player, I noticed that my diet has changed as well. No longer do I live in the days where I can go to Wawa and order a decent size lunch, followed by a night of whatever alcahol I can get my greedy hands on. Now my lunch looks like it could have been the remeants of an abortion.

As far as the IQ is concerned, I think Mark Hournang can prove that Dredge players drink more than Tez players, but that has yet to be proven on the Stax players. Stax vs Dredge drinking teams has yet to be playtested. But if you want proof that Dregde drinks more than Tez, just look at the photos in Mark Hournang's facebook. Particularly, his current profile pic. Is that enough proof?

P.S. Love ya Marky lol.

In seriousness, I like Wmagzoo7's suggestion, but I feel like that could be a seperate article. Its not like people are not getting to know the major players in our area, much like people are getting to know the Ohio crew in Menendian's article. Something like this could help a new and/or experienced player get into the mind set of our local champions. Kind of like how the deck techs on Wizards coverage helps a player understand the ins and outs of the best performing decks. But again, it should be a different article.

Good job Matt!

Great article Matt.  Again the in depth coverage of the shops seem to be lacking.  5-2ing with the deck seemed like a kick in the pants for me.  I lost to Sam Best and his triple drains into empty and an oath player whom didn't know his deck nor what creatures were in it.  Also not knowing how to pay magic seems to cost me way to much. 
As far as the drinking aspect of a stax player.  I consider myself to drink a fair amount of the sauce and have played stax welll into my fifth glass of jagger.   Hell i played top 8 and top 4 of the dan heard open sloshed.  I'd take on the whole dredge team in a drinking contest alone. 

[voltron00x]

I can go back and look at the differences in the 5C Stax lists, but the ones near the top are more or less similar (since they're all NYSE lists).  Roland's list was a bit different than the rest.  There just isn't as much data to break out regarding those Shop lists... they're all so similar.

What exactly would you guys like to know about the Shop lists?

The other thing about Shops at this tournament is that, on average, the skill level of the 5C Stax players (well, really all Shop players as you have Lee on Mono Red and Mykie Noble on WS Aggro) was very high, so one has to wonder what those results suggest.  Its possible that 5C Stax was not a good choice for this tournament, but the skill level of the players was such that they were still able to hit 4 and 5 wins, for the most part.  And again, that's why I looked at the "virtual" top 8, to show that two 5C Stax players just missed out on breakers, and I mentioned Raff, who started 4-0-1 and lost (as I understand it) two tough, close matches at the end of the day.

[Will]

I can go back and look at the differences in the 5C Stax lists, but the ones near the top are more or less similar (since they're all NYSE lists).  Roland's list was a bit different than the rest.  There just isn't as much data to break out regarding those Shop lists... they're all so similar.

What exactly would you guys like to know about the Shop lists?

Here are a few things that I would like to see a breakdown of if you want to spend the extra time to do (not necessary by any means:
-Amount of Dredge Hate in the board and what different cards.
-Number of Gorilla Shamans
-Crop Rotation (Yes/No/Number)
-Balance (Yes/No/Main/Side)
PS: If a large majority of them are the same 75 then you are even more free to disregard my suggestions.    

The other thing about Shops at this tournament is that, on average, the skill level of the 5C Stax players (well, really all Shop players as you have Lee on Mono Red and Mykie Noble on WS Aggro) was very high, so one has to wonder what those results suggest.  Its possible that 5C Stax was not a good choice for this tournament, but the skill level of the players was such that they were still able to hit 4 and 5 wins, for the most part.  And again, that's why I looked at the "virtual" top 8, to show that two 5C Stax players just missed out on breakers, and I mentioned Raff, who started 4-0-1 and lost (as I understand it) two tough, close matches at the end of the day.

So do you think that the deck was carried almost entirely by the pilots and not the other way around?  Basically I'm unsure if you feel that another version of Stax would have been better (you did run B/R at Bluebell) or if you think that the majority of the players would have done well if they had played any archetype for the most part?  

[pierce]

Both of your Philly articles have been excellent. If I had the chance to play in New England, this data would be invaluable towards metagaming.

[voltron00x]

I can go back and look at the differences in the 5C Stax lists, but the ones near the top are more or less similar (since they're all NYSE lists).  Roland's list was a bit different than the rest.  There just isn't as much data to break out regarding those Shop lists... they're all so similar.

What exactly would you guys like to know about the Shop lists?

Here are a few things that I would like to see a breakdown of if you want to spend the extra time to do (not necessary by any means:
-Amount of Dredge Hate in the board and what different cards.
-Number of Gorilla Shamans
-Crop Rotation (Yes/No/Number)
-Balance (Yes/No/Main/Side)
PS: If a large majority of them are the same 75 then you are even more free to disregard my suggestions.    

The other thing about Shops at this tournament is that, on average, the skill level of the 5C Stax players (well, really all Shop players as you have Lee on Mono Red and Mykie Noble on WS Aggro) was very high, so one has to wonder what those results suggest.  Its possible that 5C Stax was not a good choice for this tournament, but the skill level of the players was such that they were still able to hit 4 and 5 wins, for the most part.  And again, that's why I looked at the "virtual" top 8, to show that two 5C Stax players just missed out on breakers, and I mentioned Raff, who started 4-0-1 and lost (as I understand it) two tough, close matches at the end of the day.

So do you think that the deck was carried almost entirely by the pilots and not the other way around?  Basically I'm unsure if you feel that another version of Stax would have been better (you did run B/R at Bluebell) or if you think that the majority of the players would have done well if they had played any archetype for the most part?  

Will, I'll take a look at this later in the week.  In hindsight, you're right, there are plenty of interesting things to review:  I'll look at 5C Stax and break out Balance, Shaman, Trisk / Titan / Karn, Bazaar, Powder Key, and Crop Rot.  I believe most of the #s on these are identical (again, that NYSE influence), but its still interesting to see, either way.

As I recall, the Ichorid hate was by and large all the same: 4 Leyline plus 1-3 artifacts and presumably 2-3 REB / Pyro to protect Leyline from Chain of Vapor.

My point about 5C Stax is just that its hard to understand the results of the deck, 5C Stax, without taking into account the high skill level among the pilots of 5C Stax at this tournament.  I can sit here and say, 5C Stax is a solid choice because most of the players had 4-5 wins - but I feel disingenous saying that, because I think a lot of those players would've hit the same win total regardless of their deck choice (as long as it was something legitimate and Tier 1 or 2).  So, just a caveat I feel is needed in this particular instance.

[psyburat]

Sorry for challenging your right to gorge, allmighty owner of Mishra's Workshop. My sincerest apologies.

This is a common misconception.  I managed to pilot the deck with nothing to feast upon beyond a Wawa breakfast sandwich, two bananas and a cocktail of various energy beverages.  This may have contributed to my Top 4 finish, although I didn't have a chance to discuss diets with the other Workshop players.

EDIT:  I also need a nickname.  A spelling variation of my first name isn't cutting it.

[Ummmyeh13]

Haven't we been over this before Flash(inventing nicknames by the post)...You were playing a fish deck. Not a shop deck. The face that 4 Mishra's Workshop made it onto your decklist is nothing more than simple coincidence.

[voltron00x]

From my article this week:

5C Stax Breakdown - Philly Open IV

Balance - 3 of 8 main, 1 of 8 sideboard
Tinker - 8 of 8
Gorilla Shaman - 1: 5 of 8, 2: 2 of 8
Duplicant - 4 of 8
Chalice of the Void - 1 of 8 main, 5 of 8 sideboard
Demonic Tutor - 8 of 8
Vampiric Tutor - 7 of 8
Thorn of Amethyst - 6 of 8
Sphere of Resistance - 3 of 8
Karn, Silver Golem - 6 of 8
Sundering Titan - 7 of 8
Crop Rotation - 1: 6 of 8, 2: 1 of 8
Ancient Grudge - 2 of 8 main, 3 of 8 sideboard
Triskelion - 6 of 8 main, 2 of 8 sideboard
Bazaar of Baghdad - 7 of 8
Dark blast - 1 of 8 main, 1 of 8 sideboard
Platinum Angel - 2 of 8
Memory Jar - 2 of 8
Null Rod - 1 of 8

[thecman]

Was there only one deck that overlapped on Spheres and Thorns, or were the decks running Spheres all running the full 8?

[Gekoratel]

Ici Li was playing at this event and his mono-red Stax list runs a full 4 Sphere, 4 Thorn.  Not sure if that is the information you need thecman.

[voltron00x]

I didn't count Ici's list, because it was mono-red.

Of the 5C Stax players, 2 ran 4x Sphere, 5 ran 4x Thorn, and 1 ran 4x Thorn, 4x Sphere.

[psyburat]

I didn't count Ici's list, because it was mono-red.

Of the 5C Stax players, 2 ran 4x Sphere, 5 ran 4x Thorn, and 1 ran 4x Thorn, 4x Sphere.

What place did Mr. 9Sphere get?  Not looking for a list, just curious how he ranked amongst the field and his 5Sphere brothers.

[Grand Inquisitor]

My point about 5C Stax is just that its hard to understand the results of the deck, 5C Stax, without taking into account the high skill level among the pilots of 5C Stax at this tournament.  I can sit here and say, 5C Stax is a solid choice because most of the players had 4-5 wins - but I feel disingenous saying that, because I think a lot of those players would've hit the same win total regardless of their deck choice (as long as it was something legitimate and Tier 1 or 2).  So, just a caveat I feel is needed in this particular instance.

I was curious about this too.  My observation is that this archetype has been on a downward slope since around GenCon and that Oath makes it even tougher.  Still, given the little I know about the NYSE contingent, I expected to see some solid opponents playing it and was right.

A few questions come to mind?

1) Is 5c Stax customizable enough to handle this meta?
2) If so, was the lack of success because the meta was still well prepared for 5c Stax?
3) If still (1) but not (2), was the custumization incorrect?

I don't have tons of experience with the deck, but I do think null rod is really strong right now.  Why are none of the lists playing it?

[voltron00x]

My point about 5C Stax is just that its hard to understand the results of the deck, 5C Stax, without taking into account the high skill level among the pilots of 5C Stax at this tournament.  I can sit here and say, 5C Stax is a solid choice because most of the players had 4-5 wins - but I feel disingenous saying that, because I think a lot of those players would've hit the same win total regardless of their deck choice (as long as it was something legitimate and Tier 1 or 2).  So, just a caveat I feel is needed in this particular instance.

I was curious about this too.  My observation is that this archetype has been on a downward slope since around GenCon and that Oath makes it even tougher.  Still, given the little I know about the NYSE contingent, I expected to see some solid opponents playing it and was right.

A few questions come to mind?

1) Is 5c Stax customizable enough to handle this meta?
2) If so, was the lack of success because the meta was still well prepared for 5c Stax?
3) If still (1) but not (2), was the custumization incorrect?

I don't have tons of experience with the deck, but I do think null rod is really strong right now.  Why are none of the lists playing it?

I'm not an expert on Stax, but here's my take.

Null Rod is awesome in B/R Stax, but the normal 5C Stax shell can't really support it correctly.  Karn and Powder Keg turn off with Null Rod, and 5C Stax is actually running a similar fast-mana suite as Tezzeret (5 Mox, Lotus, Sol Ring, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault), which is a serious problem in a mana denial deck that isn't drawing cards like B/R Stax (and therefore doesn't see the same flow of lands off the top).  While I wouldn't say Null Rod is "effective" against 5C Stax, it also interferes with it enough that it isn't that good in the typical version.  You could definitely build one that cuts the 2 Kegs and 1 Karn for 3 Null Rod... you'd still have 2 Mox Monkeys for artifact control.

HOWEVER, my experience thus far with B/R Stax is that it is much more vulnerable to Rebuild / H. Recall than 5C Stax.  5C Stax uses Keg and Karn to blow up fast mana (among other roles); B/R Stax uses Null Rod to lock it down.  The former means that while H. Recall / Rebuild are still kind of an out, they still leave the Tezz / TPS player short on mana (in theory).  However, banking on Null Rod in the latter plan means that if Rebuild / H. Recall resolve, Tezz has all the mana it needs to untap and win.  That's been my problem with the B/R deck thus far.  It feels like it has a much more even match-up vs Tezz than 5C Stax does, but I also think it has better balanced match-ups against a wider field.  Against Tezz, it really wants something like Gorilla Shaman to take out moxes and keep Tezz off the Key/Vault plan.

I definitely think 5C Stax can adapt to any metagame, especially the NYSE guys like Nick - they don't consider ANY card an "automatic include" which is key for adapting a deck to a new metagame.

As far as Oath, I don't think the typical 5C Stax pilot fears Iona Oath all that much - those SB Gargadons and Chalice go a long way to taking a relatively even match-up preboard and making it a positive one for games 2 & 3.  While I know my list hasn't been as popular since the release of Iona, one of its benefits is a much better G1 match-up vs Shops.

[Will]

A few questions come to mind?

1) Is 5c Stax customizable enough to handle this meta?
2) If so, was the lack of success because the meta was still well prepared for 5c Stax?
3) If still (1) but not (2), was the custumization incorrect?

I don't have tons of experience with the deck, but I do think null rod is really strong right now.  Why are none of the lists playing it?

Nick (Prospero) is definitely the right person to answer this one but I'll give my point of view.  

1.  I really think that 5cStax is more than capable of handling the meta without much customization let alone with it.  While the current list is focused on dealing with Tezzeret as its primary concern, many of the components of the deck serve many different purposes in a wide array of matchups while still shining against Tezzeret.  The usefulness of many cards in matchups outside of Tezzeret can be supported by the fact that there are few if any dead cards in most matchups and besides Dredge and Oath (depending on your sb) you should never board out more than 5-6 cards for any specific deck.  

2.  I personally don't think the meta was over prepared for Stax since I didn't lose any games to vast amounts of hate or really narrow hate but maybe I just didn't see it.  I think I got Grudged twice and maybe Rack and Ruined once, but that was it.  The lack of success was because I'm a scrub and went 4-0 then 0-3 in the tourney.  I also heard Raf. lost out which means the deck could/should of had 2 Top8s instead of none.  

3.  My list felt fine throughout the whole day and I was 2 cards off in the main and I think 4 cards off in the board from most of the NYSE crew.  Coming into the day I expected lots of Tezz and more Oath then there turned up to be which was correct, but only a couple cards in my board seemed questionable which is definitely a good thing for a whole deck.  

For 5cStax Null Rod sort of goes against what the deck tries to achieve in that we play robots that we try to power out with Mana Crypt/ Vault which get blanked by Null Rod.  Also, in 5c your moxen are just as important if not more important than your opponents which leads me to what the deck does play.  Karn, Powder Keg, and 2 Mox Monkeys take the place of Null Rod in most situations while also having added flexibility.