[Free Podcast] So Many Insane Plays # 21: Gatecrash Vintage Set Review!

[Smmenen]

You'll notice that I did not publish a set review with this set.   I decided we'd pour everything into the podcast instead.   This is an epic set review.

First, we review all of our predictions from Return to Ravnica, and assess them against top 8 performances from morphling.de

Then, we review each of the cards listed below.  We recorded once the entire set was spoiled on January 23, but it took some time to edit and get up.

Enjoy!!

http://www.mtgcast.com/mtgcast-podcast-shows/active-podcast-shows/so-many-insane-plays/so-many-insane-plays-21-gatecrash-review

Kevin Cron and Steve Menendian review Gatecrash for Vintage.

 
0:00:53: Announcements
0:14:00: Return to Ravnica Report Card
0:34:29: Gatecrash Mechanics
0:52:50: Biovisionary
0:57:21: Blind Obedience
1:00:11: Dimir Charm
1:03:28: Domri Rade
1:05:36: Foundry Street Denizen
1:08:14: Enter the Infinite
1:14:05: Hellkite Tyrant
1:21:11: Illness in the Ranks
1:24:31: Nightveil Specter
1:33:28: Realmwright
1:39:45: Shattering Blow
1:41:26: Thespian’s Stage
2:03:55: Whispering Madness
2:24:36: Balustrade Spy/Undercity Informer

 

Your Hosts: Kevin Cron, Steve Menendian
Show’s Email: SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com
Show’s Twitter: @ManyInsanePlays

[brianpk80]

Thank you for posting.  I like these.

Four minutes in.  I stated "Storm Cauldron" aloud as soon as the question came like an overeager backseat contestant on Magic Jeopardy.  I remember the Mana Crypt errata and to this day would be hard pressed to find a smoother control deck than 4-Crypt U/W.  I had a Soldevi Digger as a kill condition and still remember explaining to opponents why the lock was unbreakable.  I'm glad to see there is a section on Realmwright and look forward to hearing it. 

[Smmenen]

That's hilarious.   Could you post your list?  I'd love to see it. 

[mmcgeach]

Like the podcast.  One simple correction.

So, in the discussion of Hellkite Tyrant, a shops player can put in a metamorph off a Show and Tell, but that metamorph can't copy what the other player puts in play off Show and Tell.  It makes show and tell against shops less suicidal than one might assume.

[Smmenen]

Ah, good point. 

[brianpk80]

Hmmm... this is from memory... over 15 years ago.
I remember that like most control players, in mid-1996, I was running four or five colors, UW with green for Regrowth (Twister recursion), black for Demonic Tutor and The Abyss, Red for sideboard options and Wheel of Fortune.  After Alliances, some friends and I discovered that "joking around" by testing Browse in place of Jayemdae Tome led to an inescapable lock with Soldevi Digger with much better filtering and selection along the way.  When Mana Crypt was unrestricted, I moved back to Tomes but kept the Diggers as the kill.  I ran two, one being insurance against the first being countered or destroyed.  The overwhelming card advantage from the Tomes and obsolescence of Timetwister made me realize I didn't even need the support colors to function, so when the deck was streamlined it was pure UW.  The off-color Moxen were so effectively inferior to the Mana Crypts that I dropped them.  Give or take a few cards, the deck was something like:

1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Black Lotus
1 Sol Ring
4 Mana Crypt
4 Tundra
4 Adarkar Wastes
4 Strip Mines
1 Library of Alexandria
6 Islands
2 Plains

2 Soldevi Digger

4 Jayemdae Tome
3 Disrupting Scepter

4 Disenchant
4 Swords to Plowshares
3 Moat
1 Ivory Tower

4 Counterspell
4 Mana Drain

1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk

That looks about right.  I don't remember what I sideboarded then, probably Circle of Protection: Red, Jester's Caps, maybe even Mirror Universe. 

The game state it inevitably led to was an opponent with no cards in hand or relevant threats on the table.  I'd have an empty library and X cards in hand.  There would a Moat in play.  Opponent would draw a card.  If it wasn't played, it was discarded next turn to the Scepter.  If it was played, I'd counter and the counter would return to my library to be drawn next turn, ad nauseum.  If it was a creature, I might Swords it instead of countering and the Swords would return on my next draw step.  The same was true for for artifacts and enchantments via Disenchant.  If the creature didn't fly, I might let it stay as a seemingly charitable gesture.  Unfortunately, that meant that instead of recycling a Counterspell or Swords, I'd Strip one of their lands and the same Strip Mine would come back next turn.  Eventually even the Counterspells would be unnecessary as they'd have no mana available and if a land was drawn, it was immediately Stripped, but they couldn't hold anything in hand because of the Scepter.  It was a very demoralizing lock and there were no cards printed at the time that could break it.  The actual "loss" occurred during the opponent's draw step after the library had been emptied turn after turn without any impact. 

What I liked about that build in particular is how smoothly it transitioned from survival mode to stability to card advantage to unbreakable lock. 

And while Force of Will existed at the time, Vintage hadn't reached a stage where it was necessary, since Swords to Plowshares solved pretty much any serious problem that could appear on Turn 1/2.  FoW was a $1 uncommon ridiculed because it was "like casting Hymn to Tourach on yourself."    

The podcast was good.  I just finished it up.  You two are very spirited. 

The Realmwright section was accurate regarding Workshop decks and pretty thorough.  I can't write it off though for Creature.dec because I've experienced the drawback of Cavern of Souls and hands w. 1 Tundra, 3 Wasteland, 2 Meddling Mage, etc. far too often.  Being able to get colored mana out of a Bazaar also opens up some potential niche design space, without having to consider Riftstone Portal.   

Not even a scornful dismissive mention of High Priest of Penance... So biased against creatures...     

There's a card in the set that puzzles me. 



The last (and first) time Wizards visited that Sanguine Blood effect, they priced it at  in the already power-creeped M10 Core Set.  Hence, the effect was roughly considered by the designers to be on par with resolving a Baneslayer Angel.  Is the effect really that powerful?  Is it relevant that it's now attached to a 2-CC Human Wizard?  Most of the new Guildmages are abysmal, but they sometimes sneak something surprising into an otherwise bad cycle.  I can't believe I'm writing this but, you could seriously kill your opponent in the blink of an eye with a Zuran Orb.  That is strange.  The second ability on the mage is cumulative, so if it triggers twice, the effect is doubled.  Doubled in the sense that if you remove three Jitte counters, an opponent loses 12 life.  This is a bizarre alt-win condition that requires little commitment or constraint on design, thrown onto a utility creature.  I'm not sure what to make of it.   

[Smmenen]

That decklist is awesome Brian.  I love it.  Players need to understand the errata on Mana Crypt that made that deck viable.  They can listen to the podcast or read my 1996 chapter to find out

[PETER FLUGZEUG]

I don't exactly know where you take your data from to evaluate number of top 8 appearances of cards. If you look up on morphling.de, you'll see the number of top8 for nivmagus elemental was 4 (French Open Top8, 41 players). http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1670

Where did you find your one appearance?

[MaximumCDawg]

The game state it inevitably led to was an opponent with no cards in hand or relevant threats on the table.  I'd have an empty library and X cards in hand.  There would a Moat in play.  Opponent would draw a card.  If it wasn't played, it was discarded next turn to the Scepter.  If it was played, I'd counter and the counter would return to my library to be drawn next turn, ad nauseum.  If it was a creature, I might Swords it instead of countering and the Swords would return on my next draw step.  The same was true for for artifacts and enchantments via Disenchant.  If the creature didn't fly, I might let it stay as a seemingly charitable gesture.  Unfortunately, that meant that instead of recycling a Counterspell or Swords, I'd Strip one of their lands and the same Strip Mine would come back next turn.  Eventually even the Counterspells would be unnecessary as they'd have no mana available and if a land was drawn, it was immediately Stripped, but they couldn't hold anything in hand because of the Scepter.  It was a very demoralizing lock and there were no cards printed at the time that could break it.  The actual "loss" occurred during the opponent's draw step after the library had been emptied turn after turn without any impact. 

Well, that shows how sophisticated I was during that era.  I understood the Weismann school well enough to know the scepter lock, but this sort of endgame was completely under my radar at the time.  And I loved Browse!

And while Force of Will existed at the time, Vintage hadn't reached a stage where it was necessary, since Swords to Plowshares solved pretty much any serious problem that could appear on Turn 1/2.  FoW was a $1 uncommon ridiculed because it was "like casting Hymn to Tourach on yourself."    

This, at least, I was not guilty of.  Even my high school brain managed to cobble together "free countermagic is very good" and I traded for all of them from my playgroup.  I had Mana Drains, too, but they wouldn't let me play with them

The last (and first) time Wizards visited that Sanguine Blood effect, they priced it at  in the already power-creeped M10 Core Set.  Hence, the effect was roughly considered by the designers to be on par with resolving a Baneslayer Angel.  Is the effect really that powerful?  Is it relevant that it's now attached to a 2-CC Human Wizard?  Most of the new Guildmages are abysmal, but they sometimes sneak something surprising into an otherwise bad cycle.  I can't believe I'm writing this but, you could seriously kill your opponent in the blink of an eye with a Zuran Orb.  That is strange.  The second ability on the mage is cumulative, so if it triggers twice, the effect is doubled.  Doubled in the sense that if you remove three Jitte counters, an opponent loses 12 life.  This is a bizarre alt-win condition that requires little commitment or constraint on design, thrown onto a utility creature.  I'm not sure what to make of it.   

I think the Guildmages are all actually pretty good, just good for different formats.  Simic recycles both Persist and Undying creatures, gives everything Multikicker, and subs in for Meleria in Pod decks.  Boros and Gruul are Limited bombs.  Orzhov and Dimir are both modern or standard-legal combo pieces with Exquisite Blood and Mindcrack, respectively.

Vizkopa Guildmage in particular really seems potent.  Unlike Duskmantle, she has some pretty relevant abilities without comboing off.  I imagine her in a suiblack Legacy deck that splashes for a few white cards, probably for her and StP.  Turn 1, ritual out a fattie.  Turn 2, hymn.  Turn 3, her.  Each turn after that, you can increase your staying power against the opponent. 

The other possibility is Lifelink.dec, because Vizkopa essentially berserks your lifelinkers for 3 as much as you want.   I was actually tinkering around with this concept casually.  Right now, my build is R/W so I can use the Volcano Hellion + (Reckoner / Fanatic / Spitemare / Stuffy Doll) combo, but most of the good lifelink pieces are white.  It runs Knight of the Meadowgrain and that white Join Forces lifelinker.  If I were taking a stab at Vizkopa, I'd start with 4x Knight of the Meadowgrain and 4x Nighthawk.

[oshkoshhaitsyosh]

I like your take on thespians stage, admittedly I went right to that section. Thanks for mentioning me, and I agree that it will show up in lists. Most likely as a 1 of and a 2 of would be a reach IMO. Good stuff guys...

[Smmenen]

I don't exactly know where you take your data from to evaluate number of top 8 appearances of cards. If you look up on morphling.de, you'll see the number of top8 for nivmagus elemental was 4 (French Open Top8, 41 players). http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1670

Where did you find your one appearance?

We recorded I'm January 23rd.  At that time, there was only one top 8 posted with it.

I like your take on thespians stage, admittedly I went right to that section. Thanks for mentioning me, and I agree that it will show up in lists. Most likely as a 1 of and a 2 of would be a reach IMO. Good stuff guys...

Haha.

I said only a one-of.

I was surprised Brian Demars didn't mention this card.  I think this is the card I said would have the most top 8s from the set... What did I predict? 10 or so?  If you top 8 with it, you'll make my prediction accurate

[brianpk80]

Well, that shows how sophisticated I was during that era.  I understood the Weismann school well enough to know the scepter lock, but this sort of endgame was completely under my radar at the time.  And I loved Browse!

Well, to be fair, it wasn't the standard use of the Scepter lock, so it's not a serious mark ignorance to not know what a particular player was doing with it.  I'm sure it was discovered somewhere else independently, but this was before everything was so connected online.  The standard use for the Scepter was to create enough of a soft lock that a Serra Angel got through unmolested for a few turns.  City of Brass/Mirror Universe was an alternative to that.  Also, after Alliances, though similar joking around, we discovered that Phelddagrif was far superior to Serra Angel for intended purposes.  It couldn't be Plowshared because of the return clause.  It couldn't be Balanced away because it could create tokens in response.  And your opponent couldn't Mirror kill you because you could give them life. 

This, at least, I was not guilty of.  Even my high school brain managed to cobble together "free countermagic is very good" and I traded for all of them from my playgroup.  I had Mana Drains, too, but they wouldn't let me play with them

I still have a UW school of thought distaste for the card.    

I think the Guildmages are all actually pretty good, just good for different formats.  Simic recycles both Persist and Undying creatures, gives everything Multikicker, and subs in for Meleria in Pod decks.  Boros and Gruul are Limited bombs.  Orzhov and Dimir are both modern or standard-legal combo pieces with Exquisite Blood and Mindcrack, respectively.

I knew of the Mindcrank kill but hadn't thought of the Persist/Undying use fo Simic (Zameck?).  I referred to the new Guildmages as abysmal because while they have interesting and powerful effects, their casting and activation costs are so cumbersome compared to the originals.  It's like reverse power creep. 

The other possibility is Lifelink.dec, because Vizkopa essentially berserks your lifelinkers for 3 as much as you want.   I was actually tinkering around with this concept casually.

I had a chance to test the card for the first time today as well.  The Zuran Orb kill is much easier to set up than I thought.  Do you ever use Cockatrice?

That decklist is awesome Brian.  I love it.  Players need to understand the errata on Mana Crypt that made that deck viable.  They can listen to the podcast or read my 1996 chapter to find out.

FWIW, it might also be helpful to explain to players why the lack of the Play/Draw rule in those times made Library of Alexandria so much more important than it is today.  Good luck. 

[MaximumCDawg]

I had a chance to test the card for the first time today as well.  The Zuran Orb kill is much easier to set up than I thought.  Do you ever use Cockatrice?

No, but I have been meaning to get to it.  The new baby makes actually going to play anywhere problematic.

[Smmenen]

So, people who thought I was undercounting certain cards from Return to Ravnica, what did you think of our report card? 

What did you think of the metric we used for accuracy?  I'm proud that I was so close on these.  It's really funny when I predict the exact amount. 

If you agree or disagree with our predictions, post what you think.

Brian Demars didn't list the three cards I predicted would see the most play from this set in his set review.

[MaximumCDawg]

I haven't listened to the Podcast yet, but I will try to do during my commute tomorrow.  My 2 cents beforehand: remember how you called Mirrodin Besieged the set of many Pithing Needles?  Gatecrash, to me, is the set of many Laboratory Maniacs.  Most of the power level is lackluster, but oh my god they gave us so many combo pieces!  Three of the Guildmages are part of instant-win combos.  Reckoner is a combo card too.  The Rouges are combo cards.  Even some cards that are not really on the radar right now (and may never be) for eternal have combo applications: Reckoner + Boros Charm (indestr) + Azor Charm (lifelink) = arbitrarily large life total.  Alms Beast asks to be abused in The Cure.  Biovisionary asks to be abused with Mirrorweave.  High Priest of Penance begs for ways to break him (I prefer Plague Spitter and Crusade effects or Yamivaya Hollow myself.)  Immortal Servitude is just waiting to be busted open by some kind of abusive recursion or other.  The entire Simic tribe is all based around Johnny-tastic card draw and manipulation of +1/+1 counters. 

In short: this is a Johnny set.  I don't think I've seen a set with so many cards that challenge you to make them part of a winning strategy since Urzas.  Other sets have had more obvious power (New Phyrexia) or more interesting answers (Mirrodin Besieged) but I can't remember one with so many combos begging to born!

[Smmenen]

remember how you called Mirrodin Besieged the set of many Pithing Needles? 

Wow, you remember my set review from like 2 years ago

Or was that even longer? 

[brianpk80]

So, people who thought I was undercounting certain cards from Return to Ravnica, what did you think of our report card? 

Burning Wish is from Judgment.  It doesn't count.

High Priest of Penance begs for ways to break him (I prefer Plague Spitter and Crusade effects or Yamivaya Hollow myself.)

It's a very solid card even without being broken.  We've been testing him in Human decks and he's made a positive impression.  It's tempting to get thrown off by making the obvious comparison to Vindicate but despite the superficial resemblance, they're serving different functions.  Vindicate is removal while the Priest is a deterrent and card advantage trickster.  It may just be the best Pendelhaven target of all time.   

I haven't been on this forum regularly in a while and didn't know you had a newborn.  Congratulations.

If you agree or disagree with our predictions, post what you think.

Brian Demars didn't list the three cards I predicted would see the most play from this set in his set review.

You're right about the Thespian Stage and he has the right perspective on Shattering Blow.  For decks that don't effectively ignore the opponent, the ability to remove either Time Vault or Blightsteel at instant speed is huge and there hasn't been a competent card to play that role in two decades.  I suspect underestimating the hatred for blue's win conditions is part of the reason the predictions for Abrupt Decay also missed the mark. 

Making predictions is made more difficult because you're charged with determining both what is strong enough to see play and then where players will devote their attention & enthusiasm.  I have a hard time seeing enough energy being poured into a Whispering Madness engine that produces anything preferable to an already existing combo deck.  Bounce + discard on an opponent is always fun, but it sounds like we're getting into Shocker territory.  On the other hand, maybe it's time to bust out Cavern of Souls naming Insect. 

The black Hermit Druids are ridiculous.  That section was accurate. 

[PeAcH]

@Smennen

Regarding the Enter the Infinite versus Conflux debate, as Carsten Kotter states in his legacy article,

http://www.starcitygames.com/article/25560_Eternal-Europe-ndash-Gatecrash-At-The-Brewery.html

Step 1: Get out Dream Halls.
Step 2: Pitch a blue card to cast Enter the Infinite, draw your deck, and put back a random land.
Step 3: Pitch another blue card to put Omniscience into play.
Step 4: Hard cast Emrakul from hand, getting a Time Walk turn.
Step 5: Take your Time Walk and attack with the tentacle monster.
Step 6: If your opponent is still alive, they might be hoping you'll now deck yourself. Totally devastate them by casting the second Emrakul (killing both thanks to the legend rule) to reshuffle your graveyard (including the Emrakuls) into your library, then use Omniscience to cast another Enter the Infinite, and then cast Emrakul again. Rinse and repeat until your opponent decides this is no fun.

I think Enter the infinite allows for a cleaner streamlined more elegant kill and also more consistent as adding Emrakul eases the 2 card combos with Show and Tell.

As Brian De Mars stated in his Gatecrash review:

http://www.starcitygames.com/article/25579_Gatecrash-Vintage-Set-Review.html

using Dream Halls, Show and Tell et al. a mono blue decklist could go like:

4 Show and Tell
4 Dream Halls
4 Omniscience
4 Enter the Infinite
2-4 Emrakul

Which seems a pretty interesting starting point.

Add blue restricted cards, and Intuitions (maybe with Akk or not) to find missing combo pieces for fully flavor

I think this could be developed to a true Mono U combo deck.

You can also play it UB with Tutors and Will, or UR with Burning Wish a la Legacy with Show and Tell and Enter on the sideboard.

Congratulations on the Podcast!

It´s pretty interesting to have you guys debating over new cards whilst reviewing the impact on the current decklists and playability possibilities.

[MaximumCDawg]

4 Show and Tell
4 Dream Halls
4 Omniscience
4 Enter the Infinite
2-4 Emrakul

My God, it's like someone just crammed all of the most ridiculous, over-the-top effects in a single deck and called it a day.  I like it!

[Killane]

In your analysis of Nightveil Spectre, you asked if we've seen a card that allows you to cast an "extracted" card. Praetor's Grasp saw a great deal of discussion and minimal play, and allowed you to choose what you took - you got Tinker or YawgWill or Ancestral every time, and it's still terrible.

[Smmenen]

In your analysis of Nightveil Spectre, you asked if we've seen a card that allows you to cast an "extracted" card. Praetor's Grasp saw a great deal of discussion and minimal play, and allowed you to choose what you took - you got Tinker or YawgWill or Ancestral every time, and it's still terrible.

I wouldn't say Praetor's Grasp is "terrible," but is too narow.  This card has potentially greater value both because it deals damage and is reusable. 

[Smmenen]

You're right about the Thespian Stage and he has the right perspective on Shattering Blow.  For decks that don't effectively ignore the opponent, the ability to remove either Time Vault or Blightsteel at instant speed is huge and there hasn't been a competent card to play that role in two decades.  I suspect underestimating the hatred for blue's win conditions is part of the reason the predictions for Abrupt Decay also missed the mark. 

Can you elaborate on this?  I'm not sure I know what you mean.  Abrupt Decay doesn't actually stop blue win conditions aside form Time Vault.  It doesn't stop Jace, Tinkerbot or Yawg Will. 

I'm still shocked by the prevalance of this card. 

[brianpk80]

Can you elaborate on this?  I'm not sure I know what you mean.  Abrupt Decay doesn't actually stop blue win conditions aside form Time Vault.  It doesn't stop Jace, Tinkerbot or Yawg Will. 

I'm still shocked by the prevalance of this card. 

Blue has two win conditions that end the game within a turn.  Obviously, Jace and Yawgmoth's Will help to set up and protect the kills but they're nonlethal intermediate steps incapable of randomly ending the game on Turns 1 and 2.  Keep in mind that a deck using Yawgmoth's Will to kill in the very early game is going to qualify as combo, a different beast. 

When building a disruption deck, the first order of business is preparing for an early Tinker or Vault that's likely to be protected by some counter magic, a tall constraint understanding that (1) over-preparing for one increases vulnerability to the other and (2) over-preparing for both weakens you v. the rest of the field.  Brian's point on Shattering Blow underscores an appreciation of (1).  I'm not sure you've contemplated how absurd it is that in two decades of printings, despite sharing the same type (artifact), there hadn't been a single playable instant that could hit either of them interchangeably until Gatecrash.  Bounce doesn't get the job done v. Time Vault and destruction is null v. Blightsteel.  Shattering Blow fills that void.  That said, it's still subject to (2) and that can help explain Abrupt Decay's popularity.  Abrupt Decay is comparable to Grafdigger's Cage in the sense that they both address a breadth of urgent threats.  It's similarly relevant (maybe even better) v. Oath and is not utterly dead v. Landstill, Fish, and Workshop where Cage would be.  And of course, nothing precludes you from running both.  But yes, the ability to respond to Vault + Key without interference from blue is its biggest selling point and helps navigate the design constraints mentioned above.  Does that make sense? 

[MaximumCDawg]

Can you elaborate on this?  I'm not sure I know what you mean.  Abrupt Decay doesn't actually stop blue win conditions aside form Time Vault.  It doesn't stop Jace, Tinkerbot or Yawg Will. 

I'm still shocked by the prevalance of this card. 

Blue has two win conditions that end the game within a turn.  Obviously, Jace and Yawgmoth's Will help to set up and protect the kills but they're nonlethal intermediate steps incapable of randomly ending the game on Turns 1 and 2.  Keep in mind that a deck using Yawgmoth's Will to kill in the very early game is going to qualify as combo, a different beast. 

When building a disruption deck, the first order of business is preparing for an early Tinker or Vault that's likely to be protected by some counter magic, a tall constraint understanding that (1) over-preparing for one increases vulnerability to the other and (2) over-preparing for both weakens you v. the rest of the field.  Brian's point on Shattering Blow underscores an appreciation of (1).  I'm not sure you've contemplated how absurd it is that in two decades of printings, despite sharing the same type (artifact), there hadn't been a single playable instant that could hit either of them interchangeably until Gatecrash.  Bounce doesn't get the job done v. Time Vault and destruction is null v. Blightsteel.  Shattering Blow fills that void.  That said, it's still subject to (2) and that can help explain Abrupt Decay's popularity.  Abrupt Decay is comparable to Grafdigger's Cage in the sense that they both address a breadth of urgent threats.  It's similarly relevant (maybe even better) v. Oath and is not utterly dead v. Landstill, Fish, and Workshop where Cage would be.  And of course, nothing precludes you from running both.  But yes, the ability to respond to Vault + Key without interference from blue is its biggest selling point and helps navigate the design constraints mentioned above.  Does that make sense? 

I've tried Abrupt Decay in BUG Fish, and it's been frustratingly bad against alot of decks.  Yes, it hits vault-key and other Fish, but that's about it.  It was hilariously terrible against Salvager and Shops.  I feel like it's a very good sideboard card against Noble Fish. 

[MaximumCDawg]

Okay, got through most of the podcast.  Awesome cast, as per usual!  A few props and slops:

Props: Whispering Madness.  I am one of those people who really got into Vintage formally in the last three years.  Just as you predicted, I saw this and said, "Well, Windfall sees no play, so why would a more expensive, quasi-enchantment version see play?"  But, in listening to your cast, I think I've come around a bit.  One thing you did not mention, but I think is very relevant, is that this is designed to windfall TWICE for four mana.  That is, you cast this when you have an evasive creature, and then you can wheel twice if you would like to.  That's potentially filling your yard with up to fourteen cards; that's not bad at all. I'm intrigued at the concept of a Cerebral Assassin-like list using this.

Slops: Steve, what are you smoking with respect to Nightveil Specter?  Bad card is bad.  I was especially surprised to hear you say that exiling a card at random from your opponent's deck was somehow not clearly worse than making them discard.  Seriously?  Before you exile the top card with Specter, what is on top of their deck? A random card.  What is there after you exile it?  ANOTHER RANDOM CARD.  Specter's "capping" effect is almost 100 percent worthless.  It changes nothing at all about the state of the game.  Sure, you get lucky and exile Time Vault once.  For each time that happens, 59 other times you exile a card you don't care about.  Specter is good or bad entirely based on the fact that it psuedo-draws cards from your opponent's deck and allows you to "hide" them in exile until you cast them. 

The comparison to Dimir Cutpurse is apt, but remember that Cutpurse has no evasion and Specter does.  That's potentially huge.  Selkie, for example, sees play basically on the back of its Islandwalk; I doubt it would play without it.

Gonna finish Podcast tomorrow! Maybe you'll talk about all the other weird combo cards in the set..?

[brianpk80]

I've tried Abrupt Decay in BUG Fish, and it's been frustratingly bad against alot of decks.  It was hilariously terrible against Salvager and Shops.  I feel like it's a very good sideboard card against Noble Fish. 

The same is of course true for the Cage which is one of the most played cards.  I suppose that could also be said for most disruption pieces and many forms of countermagic.   

Yes, it hits vault-key and other Fish, but that's about it. 

And Oath of Druids, Dark Confidant, Crucible of Worlds, Phyrexian Revoker, Chalice @ 2, Lab Maniac, etc.  Personally, I don't know if I'd run either Abrupt Decay or Grafdigger's Mistep Bait since I prefer disruption on legs, but I appreciate the reasoning behind doing so.

[Smmenen]

Can you elaborate on this?  I'm not sure I know what you mean.  Abrupt Decay doesn't actually stop blue win conditions aside form Time Vault.  It doesn't stop Jace, Tinkerbot or Yawg Will. 

I'm still shocked by the prevalance of this card. 

Blue has two win conditions that end the game within a turn.  Obviously, Jace and Yawgmoth's Will help to set up and protect the kills but they're nonlethal intermediate steps incapable of randomly ending the game on Turns 1 and 2. 

Yes, but the strength of TIme Vault as a combo is directly related to the presence of cards like Tinker, WIll and Jace.  There is no doubt that part of the strength of Jace is its ability to quicly assemble and protect the Time Vault combo.   Since the very first Jace decks in the format, that was more than evident. 

I'm still not understanding your point relative to blue's win condtions.   Yes, blue has two effective game enders; Time Vault and TinkerBot.  Abrupt Decay only stops one of them, and does, from what I can see, very little else.

I'm still at a total loss for why Abrupt Decay is good in Vintage:

* Doesn't kill or stop Lodestone
* Doesn't kill or Stop Blighttseel
* Doesn't kill or stop Jace

What other spot removal in this format sees play that doesn't do at least 1 or 2 of the three above? 

When building a disruption deck, the first order of business is preparing for an early Tinker or Vault that's likely to be protected by some counter magic, a tall constraint understanding that (1) over-preparing for one increases vulnerability to the other and (2) over-preparing for both weakens you v. the rest of the field.  Brian's point on Shattering Blow underscores an appreciation of (1).  I'm not sure you've contemplated how absurd it is that in two decades of printings, despite sharing the same type (artifact), there hadn't been a single playable instant that could hit either of them interchangeably until Gatecrash.  Bounce doesn't get the job done v. Time Vault and destruction is null v. Blightsteel.  Shattering Blow fills that void.  T

That's a fair point I had not considered.  That said, we explicitly acknowledged the fact that it can remove both Blightsteel and Time Vault in our analysis.  I still don't think it's going to see much play, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

Abrupt Decay is comparable to Grafdigger's Cage in the sense that they both address a breadth of urgent threats. 

This is where I disagree.  Cage's strength comes from its efficiency and lack of color requirements.  It can go into anything.  Abrupt Decay is the exact opposite in that regard. 

Okay, got through most of the podcast.  Awesome cast, as per usual!  A few props and slops:

Props: Whispering Madness.  I am one of those people who really got into Vintage formally in the last three years.  Just as you predicted, I saw this and said, "Well, Windfall sees no play, so why would a more expensive, quasi-enchantment version see play?"  But, in listening to your cast, I think I've come around a bit.  One thing you did not mention, but I think is very relevant, is that this is designed to windfall TWICE for four mana.  That is, you cast this when you have an evasive creature, and then you can wheel twice if you would like to.  That's potentially filling your yard with up to fourteen cards; that's not bad at all. I'm intrigued at the concept of a Cerebral Assassin-like list using this.

I think the better home is in a Steel City Vault revival.  I've been trying to get Brian to rebuild that deck.  I may well do that myself.

Slops: Steve, what are you smoking with respect to Nightveil Specter?  Bad card is bad.

Ugh, I hate that meme. 

What was my prediction in terms of top 8 appearnces ?  Zero.  So what's the issue?

 I was especially surprised to hear you say that exiling a card at random from your opponent's deck was somehow not clearly worse than making them discard.  Seriously?

I don't believe I didn't say it wasnt worse -- I just don't think it's so clearly worse as to be automatically dismissed.

 Before you exile the top card with Specter, what is on top of their deck? A random card.  What is there after you exile it?  ANOTHER RANDOM CARD.  Specter's "capping" effect is almost 100 percent worthless. 

I totally disagree with this.      I don't think it's 100% worthless.  I think it has value.  I wish we had mentioned Praetor's Grasp in our discussion/

[brianpk80]

Yes, but the strength of TIme Vault as a combo is directly related to the presence of cards like Tinker, WIll and Jace.  There is no doubt that part of the strength of Jace is its ability to quicly assemble and protect the Time Vault combo.   Since the very first Jace decks in the format, that was more than evident.  

Stephen, Time Vault + Voltaic Key and Blightsteel Colossus are the win conditions.  I don't see the point in pretending we can't differentiate between an engine or advantage spell and a win condition.  Is Dark Ritual the same thing as Tendrils of Agony?  Is Intuition the same thing as Psychatog?  If your only criterion is "makes me more likely to win the game," then Brainstorm, Mox Pearl, and Wasteland are all win conditions and the idea of even delineating a definition for one loses all meaning.  

Yes, blue has two effective game enders; Time Vault and TinkerBot.  Abrupt Decay only stops one of them, and does, from what I can see, very little else.

It's uncounterable.  Suppose there were a deck whose strategy was to find and resolve an Oath of Druids and protect it.  Or a deck that could negate all of your disruption by tutoring up a Voltaic Key or lucking into it, with backup.  Or a deck that upon recognizing you're playing a Fish variant locks you out with a Chalice @ 2.  If you don't see the appeal of a 2-CC uncounterable instant that's almost never dead weight, I don't know what to tell you.  I'm not saying it's the greatest card ever or even that I'd run it, but when you view things from the perspective of creature decks, the biggest challenge is preparing for a diversity of exigent threats that are now at saturation levels while minimizing dilution.  You don't seem to have a problem with Grafdigger's Cage's popularity, even though it gets Misstepped, bounced, and destroyed like crazy and has zero application to Workshops, Bomberman, Landstill, RandomScrub.dec, Fish Mirror, etc.  

I'm still at a total loss for why Abrupt Decay is good in Vintage:

Good and popular are two different things.  

* Doesn't kill or stop Lodestone
* Doesn't kill or Stop Blighttseel
* Doesn't kill or stop Jace

What other spot removal in this format sees play that doesn't do at least 1 or 2 of the three above?  

Fire/Ice.

But what an arbitrary list.  I'm guessing it excludes Time Vault because pretending Time Vault is not a relevant card in the format helps advance your argument that Abrupt Decay's popularity is mystifying, and that is disappointing.    

That's a fair point I had not considered.  That said, we explicitly acknowledged the fact that it can remove both Blightsteel and Time Vault in our analysis.  I still don't think it's going to see much play, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

It would make a respectable sideboard card.  But again, whether something is good is not tantamount to something being popular.  

This is where I disagree.  Cage's strength comes from its efficiency and lack of color requirements.  It can go into anything.  Abrupt Decay is the exact opposite in that regard.  

I think the prevalence of Mental Mistep has warped everything to a point where "Not having a converted mana cost of " becomes advantageous.  The fact that Abrupt Decay differs from Cage in that it only fits in decks running   doesn't negate the similarities I pointed out; they're both functioning as "answers" and the strength lies in the breadth of threats from which they defend.  Is it strong enough?  Perhaps not, and that says more about the inadequacy of existing answers when the field is this dangerous and diverse.  I simply volunteered an ungrudging explanation for the card's popularity so to continue to pretend that Time Vault & Oath of Druids are irrelevant and or that there is no distinction between a win condition and a draw engine solely for argument's sake would be unfair and unnecessary.  

I totally disagree with this.      I don't think it's 100% worthless.  I think it has value.  I wish we had mentioned Praetor's Grasp in our discussion/

On the other hand, I do get your point on random exile having value though it's small and difficult to quantify.  And random discard isn't what it once was.  

[Smmenen]

Yes, but the strength of TIme Vault as a combo is directly related to the presence of cards like Tinker, WIll and Jace.  There is no doubt that part of the strength of Jace is its ability to quicly assemble and protect the Time Vault combo.   Since the very first Jace decks in the format, that was more than evident.  

Stephen, Time Vault + Voltaic Key and Blightsteel Colossus are the win conditions.  I don't see the point in pretending we can't differentiate between an engine or advantage spell and a win condition.  

If we are going to be technical about it, Time Vault + Voltaic Key is not a win condition.  It doesn't satisfy rule 104 for ending the game.  It's no less an intermediate step than casting Tinker, Jace, or Yawgmoth's Will in that respect.

We are getting off point though.   Your point is that Time Vault/key and TInkerbot are blue's win conditions.   I get that.  The point I'm making though is that Abrupt Decay only deals with one of them.  Your entire point seems to be that Abrupt Decay is good because of how it interfaces with blue.

To me, that's utterly mystifying.  It barely interfaces with blue.  It kills Time Vault and that's pretty much it.  It doesnt stop Tinkerbot, Jace, Will, or much else...

Yes, blue has two effective game enders; Time Vault and TinkerBot.  Abrupt Decay only stops one of them, and does, from what I can see, very little else.

It's uncounterable.  Suppose there were a deck whose strategy was to find and resolve an Oath of Druids and protect it.  Or a deck that could negate all of your disruption by tutoring up a Voltaic Key or lucking into it, with backup.  Or a deck that upon recognizing you're playing a Fish variant locks you out with a Chalice @ 2.  If you don't see the appeal of a 2-CC uncounterable instant that's almost never dead weight, I don't know what to tell you.

Yes, it's uncounterable, but Ancient Grudge can fight through a counter in a similar way, and yet also destroy one of the most important permanents in the format, Lodestone Golem.

When evaluating Abrupt Decay in our Return to Ravnica podcast and set review, I think that the inability to deal with Jace or especially Golem is a paramount limitation. 

 I'm not saying it's the greatest card ever or even that I'd run it, but when you view things from the perspective of creature decks, the biggest challenge is preparing for a diversity of exigent threats that are now at saturation levels while minimizing dilution.  You don't seem to have a problem with Grafdigger's Cage's popularity, even though it gets Misstepped, bounced, and destroyed like crazy and has zero application to Workshops, Bomberman, Landstill, RandomScrub.dec, Fish Mirror, etc.  

Let's not get confused here.  Grafdigger's Cage does many things, but it is used primarily in this format as an Anti-Dredge and Anti-Oath tactic.  For decks like Workshop, there is nothing more efficient in those roles, given the scope.   

I'm still at a total loss for why Abrupt Decay is good in Vintage:

Good and popular are two different things.  

* Doesn't kill or stop Lodestone
* Doesn't kill or Stop Blighttseel
* Doesn't kill or stop Jace

What other spot removal in this format sees play that doesn't do at least 1 or 2 of the three above?  

Fire/Ice.

[/quote]

Fire/Ice is barely played in this format, if at all. 

But what an arbitrary list.  

How is that an arbitrary list?  Isn't killing Lodestone one of the most important things in the format?  Same Tinker/Bot and Jace? 

I'm guessing it excludes Time Vault because pretending Time Vault is not a relevant card in the format helps advance your argument that Abrupt Decay's popularity is mystifying, and that is disappointing.    

Ok, let's add Time Vault to the list.   What spot removal spells in the format don't:

* Kill Lodestone
* Remove Blightsteel
* Kill Jace
* Destroy Time Vault

It seems to me that basically every spot removal spell that is played in the format does at least 2 of the 4. 

This is where I disagree.  Cage's strength comes from its efficiency and lack of color requirements.  It can go into anything.  Abrupt Decay is the exact opposite in that regard.  

I think the prevalence of Mental Mistep has warped everything to a point where "Not having a converted mana cost of " becomes advantageous.  

I don't think that's the case at all.  Being efficient is still far more important than being potentially vulnerable to MM as a general matter.  But more particularly, MM seems to have declined in popularity in Vintage tournaments over the last 6 months. 

The fact that Abrupt Decay differs from Cage in that it only fits in decks running   doesn't negate the similarities I pointed out; they're both functioning as "answers" and the strength lies in the breadth of threats from which they defend.

It does though.  Part of the importance of Cage is that it serves as an anti-Dredge and anti-Oath tactic in decks like Workshop or White Trash that lack the colored mana to play the best black dredge hate or best anti-oath spells.  Abrupt Decay is among the hungriest colored requriement spells in the format.  Cage is the exact opposite.

[brianpk80]

Your entire point seems to be that Abrupt Decay is good because of how it interfaces with blue.

No, it isn't.  My point was that the card is popular because it has effective uses against a broad palette of threats. 

To me, that's utterly mystifying.  It barely interfaces with blue.  It kills Time Vault and that's pretty much it.  It doesnt stop Tinkerbot, Jace, Will, or much else...

It stops Bobs, Trygons, kills Snapcasters & Trinket Mages, Vendilion Cliques, Oath of Druids, artifact mana, sidesteps MM and negates Force of Will.  Of course blue is going to have other routes to victory; that's why it's one of the best decks in the format. 
 

The fact that Abrupt Decay differs from Cage in that it only fits in decks running   doesn't negate the similarities I pointed out; they're both functioning as "answers" and the strength lies in the breadth of threats from which they defend.

It does though.  Part of the importance of Cage is that it serves as an anti-Dredge and anti-Oath tactic in decks like Workshop or White Trash that lack the colored mana to play the best black dredge hate or best anti-oath spells.  Abrupt Decay is among the hungriest colored requriement spells in the format.  Cage is the exact opposite.

That "negates" the fact that they're both "answers" to a breadth of threats?  No.  I don't see how jumping through all of these rhetorical hoops is preferable to simply saying, "Ok, your explanation made sense.  I think there are better cards to run, but that helps demystify why so many other players would be drawn to it."