[Free Podcast] So Many Insane Plays Podcast Episode 50: Oath of the Gatewatch

[CHA1N5]

http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-podcast-episode-50-oath-of-the-gatewatch-2015-year-in-review/

Kevin Cron and Steve Menendian review Oath of the Gatewatch and the year that was 2015, including our annual Moxie awards!

0:01:00: Announcements: VSL Season 4, Vintage Checklist, NYSE Open IV
0:10:15: Proxy Tournament Hubbub
0:18:40: Steve and Rich Shay’s Letter to MTGO
0:19:00: Battle for Zendikar Report Card
0:22:40: Oath of the Gatewatch Mechanics
0:46:00: Kozilek, the Great Distortion
1:02:30: Spatial Distortion/Warping Wail
1:29:30: Crush of Tentacles
1:43:15: Goblin Dark-Dwellers
1:48:00: Natural State
1:55:50: Sea Gate Wreckage
2:20:15: Overwhelming Denial
2:34:00: Endbringer
2:54:30: Matter Reshaper
3:07:40: Thought-Knot Seer
3:10:30: Sphinx of the Final Word
3:19:15: Deceiver of Form
3:22:15: Reality Smasher
3:28:15: Stormchaser Mage
3:32:30: Dimensional Infiltrator
3:39:40: Hedron Alignment
3:40:30: Jori En, Ruin Diver
3:56:30: Mina and Denn, Wildborn
4:01:15: Wastes
4:04:00: Year in Review
4:06:30: 2015 Moxies!
Total runtime: 4:16:53

[Prospero]

Thank you both for the kind words!  I hope I get to see you both there!

Looking forward to listening to the rest of the podcast, as always!

[Dice_Box]

Four hours? Thanks for making the work day shorter.

[ajfirecracker]

One thing I'd love to hear at the end (and which I think wouldn't add a lot of time to these) would be a recap of your greater-than-zero predictions.

It's really easy to lose an overall picture of the set by the time you finish creating it, since you have such a fantastic level of detail and deliberation with each individual card.

For this set, I believe it's:
Kozilek, the Great Distortion - 1 Kevin / 1 Stephen
Spatial Contortion - 1 Stephen
Warping Wail - 1 Kevin / 2 Stephen
Sea Gate Wreckage - 3 Kevin / 4 Stephen
Endbringer - 1 Kevin
Sphinx of the Final Word - 1 Stephen
Jori En, Ruin Diver - 15 Kevin / 22 Stephen
Waste - 1 Stephen

Based on that highlight, I think the big prediction is that repeatable draw engines might see play (might see a lot of play) and very versatile cards might see a little play.

[diophan]

One bit of analysis I would have considered is Overwhelming Denial in Brian Kelly's Bant/4C mentor control deck. This is more of a hard control deck and has a couple slots that Rich tested with as mana drains on his stream. In my limited experience of playing this deck with mana drains in it, the drains would infrequently resolve in the blue mirror, even if I won the counter war, so gush or some other spell into overwhelming denial to counter a mentor would be huge. In general this card seems most valuable for hard control decks to actually have their counters stick against the pesky delver style countermagic.

Although Jori En is an incredibly interesting card, these predictions seem really high. Even if this card is great, the current metagame doesn't seem grindy enough for the popularity of this card to explode.

[Smmenen]

yeah, who knows, but grindy card advantage always is underestimated, and performs better than expected: see Jace, TMS, Jace, Vryn, etc. 

[Islandswamp]

I just barely downloaded this and listened to the first few minutes, but I want to say thanks for producing my favorite podcast 

I look forward to these and I've enjoyed all of them. Even before I started playing vintage I listened to the show and the way you guys talked about the format made me even more interested in it.

One thing that I would love to hear is another single card discussion. I loved the way you guys broke down Gitaxian Probe and I would love to hear you talk about a card like Mental Misstep or Flusterstorm. I think that discussions like that do a good job of illustrating how deep and complex Vintage Magic really is.

[L0cke17]

One bit of analysis I would have considered is Overwhelming Denial in Brian Kelly's Bant/4C mentor control deck. This is more of a hard control deck and has a couple slots that Rich tested with as mana drains on his stream. In my limited experience of playing this deck with mana drains in it, the drains would infrequently resolve in the blue mirror, even if I won the counter war, so gush or some other spell into overwhelming denial to counter a mentor would be huge. In general this card seems most valuable for hard control decks to actually have their counters stick against the pesky delver style countermagic.

The real question with Overwhelming Denial I think is what spells can you actually cast on your opponents turn consistently besides gush. I haven't gotten to the part of the podcast yet where they discuss the card, so I don't know if they brought that up, but that seems like the biggest issue with using it defensively in a control list. I suppose you can just pay 4 for it consistently, but that seems too slow to deal with a mentor/delver style list. That said I really like the card, and I will definitely be playing it at least as a one-of.

[MaximumCDawg]

I just barely downloaded this and listened to the first few minutes, but I want to say thanks for producing my favorite podcast  

Me toooo.

Started listening and popped around to the parts I was most interested in.  My contributions so far:

1. It might be too early to judge BOZ.

I noticed the all-zero report card for Battle for Zendikar before Kevin wrapped it up.  I remember thinking, "Yep, that's about right."  That set is poop for Vintage, and I hope it shows people that, yes, it can get worse than Theros.  

That said... many of the cards in BOZ may get significantly better in light of Oath of the Gatewatch.  That set brings the Eldrazi tribe into full maturity with useful utility creatures all up and down the curve.  Modern and even Legacy have been tinkering with using the Eldrazi-specific Sol lands (Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple) to accelerate into powerful threats very quickly.  Some people on these boards are suggesting such a deck could even exist in Vintage.  I am not one of those people right now -- though I'd love to see a new archetype -- but even I think that it would probably be appropriate to re-evaluate cards from BOZ after we see if the cards from Oath are successful in making new homes for them.

2. Steve was right about "playtest" cards.

You guys did not make it explicit, but WotC now has three definitions they've put out there in their published materials.
1. Counterfeit - A copy or reproduction of an actual magic card.
2. Proxy - A substitute provided by a judge when a card is damaged in an event.
3. Play-test - A card that stands in for another but would not pass as authentic under even the most casual observation (normally a basic land with sharpie, but the definition is not so limited).

I think this is really important to bear in mind going forward because, as we battle the Chinese counterfeits, we want to steer the community away from casually interchanging the terms.  They're emotionally charged terms, so people who like counterfeits want to call them "proxies," and we in the Vintage world have called play-test cards "proxies" forever.  It's time to start insisting on the right terms.

3. Colorless requirements might diversity manabases.

Kevin was very precise (and correct!) in pointing out that it is not hard to construct a mana base that supports colorless, it is not just typically done in Vintage at the moment.  This is an enormously meaningful point, and I really hope Wizards provides ample support for the Colorless-cost requirement in future sets to push the issue.  Simply put, the Revised Duals are NOT the de facto best lands anymore.  

Sure, there was Snow Mana in the past, but that never got pushed to any power level where people were tempted to play it.  Oath already has many totally decent support cards for the colorless requirement, and if we keep getting more, you will have a legitimate question about whether you play duals or pain lands, fetches or filters, etc.  This is the first time I've seen Wizards do something that they could push to really break the fetch+dual monopoly on Vintage, and I'm stoked to see if they follow through.

Go, go wizards!  Take advantage of this opportunity!

[desolutionist]

Nice podcast. I think you guys overlooked some applications for Goblin Dark Dwellers, specifically it's ability to cast cards that don't have mana costs such as Living End.

[GrimLavamancerBeats]

Sweet, can't wait to listen to this on the drive tomorrow. I'm excited to hear about Jori En.

[gkraigher]

Re: colorless requirements might diversify manabases

tendo ice brisge's price has jumped accordingly with the smart money. 

[nedleeds]

Nimbus Maze is next ... U/w Wailing tempo (?)

[MaximumCDawg]

Almost done with the podcast.   I feel like you guys misread Jori, however.  She does not trigger whenever you cast the second spell each turn. It's whenever you cast YOUR second spell each turn.  I.e. casting a counter spell does NOT auto draw you a card like you seemed to suggest.

Does this change your prediction?

[Smmenen]

Almost done with the podcast.   I feel like you guys misread Jori, however.  She does not trigger whenever you cast the second spell each turn. It's whenever you cast YOUR second spell each turn.  I.e. casting a counter spell does NOT auto draw you a card like you seemed to suggest.

Does this change your prediction?

No, we read the card correctly.  That's why we emphasized cards like Snapcaster Mage.

[MaximumCDawg]

Almost done with the podcast.   I feel like you guys misread Jori, however.  She does not trigger whenever you cast the second spell each turn. It's whenever you cast YOUR second spell each turn.  I.e. casting a counter spell does NOT auto draw you a card like you seemed to suggest.

Does this change your prediction?

No, we read the card correctly.  That's why we emphasized cards like Snapcaster Mage.

Oh.  Well, without snappy, why did you guys say that as soon as the opponenr plays a spell on their turn, it's easy for you to draw off Jori?  I thought you were saying that when you counter a spell,  you draw a card. 

[Chubby Rain]

Almost done with the podcast.   I feel like you guys misread Jori, however.  She does not trigger whenever you cast the second spell each turn. It's whenever you cast YOUR second spell each turn.  I.e. casting a counter spell does NOT auto draw you a card like you seemed to suggest.

Does this change your prediction?

No, we read the card correctly.  That's why we emphasized cards like Snapcaster Mage.

Oh.  Well, without snappy, why did you guys say that as soon as the opponenr plays a spell on their turn, it's easy for you to draw off Jori?  I thought you were saying that when you counter a spell,  you draw a card. 

Because them playing a spell unlocks the 10 or so counterspells most decks running Jori will play.

[MaximumCDawg]

Almost done with the podcast.   I feel like you guys misread Jori, however.  She does not trigger whenever you cast the second spell each turn. It's whenever you cast YOUR second spell each turn.  I.e. casting a counter spell does NOT auto draw you a card like you seemed to suggest.

Does this change your prediction?

No, we read the card correctly.  That's why we emphasized cards like Snapcaster Mage.

Oh.  Well, without snappy, why did you guys say that as soon as the opponenr plays a spell on their turn, it's easy for you to draw off Jori?  I thought you were saying that when you counter a spell,  you draw a card.  

Because them playing a spell unlocks the 10 or so counterspells most decks running Jori will play.

Well... so what?  That's what I thought Steve and Kevin were saying, but if your opponent plays a spell, and you play a counterspell -- if that's all that happens -- you DO NOT draw a card.  Jori only draws when you play YOUR second spell each turn.  You dig my question?

I mean, yeah, you could toss two counterspells at the same target to draw a card, but that's just cycling a counterspell.  Is that what you guys are all talking about doing?

[Chubby Rain]

Well... so what?  That's what I thought Steve and Kevin were saying, but if your opponent plays a spell, and you play a counterspell -- if that's all that happens -- you DO NOT draw a card.  Jori only draws when you play YOUR second spell each turn.  You dig my question?

I mean, yeah, you could toss two counterspells at the same target to draw a card, but that's just cycling a counterspell.  Is that what you guys are all talking about doing?

Your opponent either fights over the spell, giving you a chance to counter it back to draw a card, or lets it be countered and then you can fire off an EoT Bolt, Ancestral, Thought Scour, Dig, etc. for the second spell. In any case, your opponent casting a spell makes it much easier to get to that magical threshold of 2 spells per turn.

No, we read the card correctly.  That's why we emphasized cards like Snapcaster Mage.

Speaking of Tiago, he unfortunately does not work the way you mentioned with the Surge mechanic (during discussion of Crush of Tentacles) - it's considered an alternative cost. Also, Dragonlord Kelly has run Snapcaster Mage in some of his Oath decks (response to segment on Goblin Dark-Dweller). It's a pretty solid hit if you also milled a Will, but was cut from the Champs deck as Brian wanted the more stable 4c mana base against Shops and the Black cards are awkward at best in that matchup.

[CHA1N5]

Unfortunately, you have to take all our evaluations of the Surge cards plus JE,RD as a whole to understand where we were coming from specific to JERD.  We had previously analyzed how to achieve Surge on your opponent's turn for Overwhelming Denial, so we didn't rehash it all for JERD, even though there is a considerable functional difference between 1 spell and 2.  We had previously established that getting the first spell is partially reliable via typical, non-counter instants such as Brainstorm, Ancestral, Mystical, Gush, etc.  The fact that these instants are not a high percentage of current decks is why Steve concluded that you would be able to draw between about 2 out of every 3 of your opponent's turns.  My opinion is that 1/3 is reliable, but that's with current decklists and not one built to maximize JERD.  Both of our predictions are based on bolstering your non-counter instants with counterspells, which is why we so quickly shifted to talking about how important it is that your opponent plays spells.

I think that, with a dedicated deck, JERD could be pushed to draw on your opponent's turn about 50% of the time.  That's why the deck construction exercise is one that I'm especially looking forward to.

[MaximumCDawg]

Unfortunately, you have to take all our evaluations of the Surge cards plus JE,RD as a whole to understand where we were coming from specific to JERD.  We had previously analyzed how to achieve Surge on your opponent's turn for Overwhelming Denial, so we didn't rehash it all for JERD, even though there is a considerable functional difference between 1 spell and 2.  We had previously established that getting the first spell is partially reliable via typical, non-counter instants such as Brainstorm, Ancestral, Mystical, Gush, etc.  The fact that these instants are not a high percentage of current decks is why Steve concluded that you would be able to draw between about 2 out of every 3 of your opponent's turns.  My opinion is that 1/3 is reliable, but that's with current decklists and not one built to maximize JERD.  Both of our predictions are based on bolstering your non-counter instants with counterspells, which is why we so quickly shifted to talking about how important it is that your opponent plays spells.

I think that, with a dedicated deck, JERD could be pushed to draw on your opponent's turn about 50% of the time.  That's why the deck construction exercise is one that I'm especially looking forward to.

Ahhhh, now I get it.  You guys were working from the baseline that casting a single instant on the opponent's turn to advance your own game is trivial to do (1/3 of the time or more), and so you just concluded that when your opponent gives you an opportunity to cast a counterspell as well, it's basically a sure thing you can trigger Jori in a non-wasteful way.

Okay, I get it now, thanks for the clarification!

Speaking of Tiago, he unfortunately does not work the way you mentioned with the Surge mechanic (during discussion of Crush of Tentacles) - it's considered an alternative cost. Also, Dragonlord Kelly has run Snapcaster Mage in some of his Oath decks (response to segment on Goblin Dark-Dweller). It's a pretty solid hit if you also milled a Will, but was cut from the Champs deck as Brian wanted the more stable 4c mana base against Shops and the Black cards are awkward at best in that matchup.

Yeah, I noticed that as well.  You can't Tiago in a Surge card for the same reason you can't Tiago in a Force of Will or Gush for their alternative costs.  He doesn't let you cast the card; he gives it Flashback equal to it's mana cost.

[Smmenen]

Almost done with the podcast.   I feel like you guys misread Jori, however.  She does not trigger whenever you cast the second spell each turn. It's whenever you cast YOUR second spell each turn.  I.e. casting a counter spell does NOT auto draw you a card like you seemed to suggest.

Does this change your prediction?

No, we read the card correctly.  That's why we emphasized cards like Snapcaster Mage.

Oh.  Well, without snappy, why did you guys say that as soon as the opponenr plays a spell on their turn, it's easy for you to draw off Jori?  I thought you were saying that when you counter a spell,  you draw a card.  

No, I was saying that I think that a deck designed to do so could reliably trigger Jori 4 out of 6 turns (sequenced between yourself and your opponent).  Snapcaster Mage helps because he's got flash, and can be played on your opponent's turn, proactively.  

 

You can't Tiago in a Surge card for the same reason you can't Tiago in a Force of Will or Gush for their alternative costs.  He doesn't let you cast the card; he gives it Flashback equal to it's mana cost.

I assumed that flashbacked spells were cast - as they add to storm, hit the stack in the same way, etc.  I thought a flashback spells would trigger Jori, but you are saying they do not? Flashback is defined as "casting" a card, so I assumed that it satisfied the requirements for triggering Jori:

702.33a Flashback appears on some instants and sorceries. It represents two static abilities: one that functions while the card is in a player’s graveyard and another that functions while the card is on the stack. “Flashback [cost]” means “You may cast this card from your graveyard by paying [cost] rather than paying its mana cost” and “If the flashback cost was paid, exile this card instead of putting it anywhere else any time it would leave the stack.” Casting a spell using its flashback ability follows the rules for paying alternative costs in rules 601.2b and 601.2f–h.

[Chubby Rain]

From the Comprehensive Rules (Oath of the Gatewatch (January 16, 2016))
702.116. Surge

702.116a Surge is a static ability that functions while the spell with surge is on the stack. “Surge [cost]” means “You may pay [cost] rather than pay this spell’s mana cost as you cast this spell if you or one of your teammates has cast another spell this turn.” Paying a spell’s surge cost follows the rules for paying alternative costs in rules 601.2b and 601.2f–h.

Snapcaster Mage is still pretty good with Crush of Tentacles as it lets you reuse the comes into play ability but it does not work with Surge.

http://mtgsalvation.gamepedia.com/Surge

[Smmenen]

From the Comprehensive Rules (Oath of the Gatewatch (January 16, 2016))
702.116. Surge

702.116a Surge is a static ability that functions while the spell with surge is on the stack. “Surge [cost]” means “You may pay [cost] rather than pay this spell’s mana cost as you cast this spell if you or one of your teammates has cast another spell this turn.” Paying a spell’s surge cost follows the rules for paying alternative costs in rules 601.2b and 601.2f–h.

Snapcaster Mage is still pretty good with Crush of Tentacles as it lets you reuse the comes into play ability but it does not work with Surge.

http://mtgsalvation.gamepedia.com/Surge

Yes - Snapcaster Mage specifies that you can't use alternative costs, so you couldn't pay a Surge cost on a spell targeted with SCM.  But Snapcaster Mage supports Surge in the sense that it is a proactive spell that can be played on the opponent's turn to get to Surge.

I was responding to the point that was made above that flashback is not "casting."  According to its definition, flashback IS casting spells, so a flashbacked spell should trigger Jori, En. 

[Chubby Rain]

From the Comprehensive Rules (Oath of the Gatewatch (January 16, 2016))
702.116. Surge

702.116a Surge is a static ability that functions while the spell with surge is on the stack. “Surge [cost]” means “You may pay [cost] rather than pay this spell’s mana cost as you cast this spell if you or one of your teammates has cast another spell this turn.” Paying a spell’s surge cost follows the rules for paying alternative costs in rules 601.2b and 601.2f–h.

Snapcaster Mage is still pretty good with Crush of Tentacles as it lets you reuse the comes into play ability but it does not work with Surge.

http://mtgsalvation.gamepedia.com/Surge

Yes - Snapcaster Mage specifies that you can't use alternative costs, so you couldn't pay a Surge cost on a spell targeted with SCM.  But Snapcaster Mage supports Surge in the sense that it is a proactive spell that can be played on the opponent's turn to get to Surge.

I was responding to the point that was made above that flashback is not "casting."  According to its definition, flashback IS casting spells, so a flashbacked spell should trigger Jori, En.  

Ok, then we are simply not on the same page. I was referencing the discussion on Crush of Tentacles in which you specifically mentioned Snapcastering Crush of Tentacles for Surge.

Edit: Snapcaster is great with Jori. Because of this, I think it has a lot of potential in Modern Grixis control, where decks are already running 4 Snapcasters, 4 JVPs, Thought Scours, Bolts, Kohlagan's Commands, etc.

[MaximumCDawg]

I was responding to the point that was made above that flashback is not "casting."  According to its definition, flashback IS casting spells, so a flashbacked spell should trigger Jori, En.  

Yea, I meant that Snapcaster does not say, "You may cast that instant or sorcery" but instead says "That instant or sorcery gets Flashback."  When you activate the Flashback, yes, it totally gets "cast" at that point.  So, it doesn't "specify" that you can't use alternate costs, it just doesn't really care about them because Flashback is an ability that is tied to the normal mana cost of the spell.

[evouga]

I was surprised by Kevin's enthusiasm for Kozilek. Emrakul is miles better on every axis except casting cost. Even in Omni-Tell I would play Emrakul over Kozilek any day of the week, as the 15 damage attack + sac 6 wins the game on the spot 90% of the time, and in the few cases where the opponent sacs 6, deals with whatever other spells I cast during my free turn, and still manages to untap and win the game (e.g. opponent has tons of life, a mentor, and an army of tokens), it's hard to imagine Kozilek faring much better.

[mmcgeach]

I was surprised by Kevin's enthusiasm for Kozilek. Emrakul is miles better on every axis except casting cost. Even in Omni-Tell I would play Emrakul over Kozilek any day of the week, as the 15 damage attack + sac 6 wins the game on the spot 90% of the time, and in the few cases where the opponent sacs 6, deals with whatever other spells I cast during my free turn, and still manages to untap and win the game (e.g. opponent has tons of life, a mentor, and an army of tokens), it's hard to imagine Kozilek faring much better.

True story.  I once show and tell'ed, putting in yawgmoth's bargain, and my opponent put in Emrakul.  My opponent attacked me on the next turn, but I sacc'd six mana sources and blocked with baleful strix.  I then won on my turn with bargain.

[mmcgeach]

Also really want to highlight and give thanks for both Kevin and Steve's generous appreciation of the Sphinx Tribal archetype. 

[Islandswamp]

I was surprised by Kevin's enthusiasm for Kozilek. Emrakul is miles better on every axis except casting cost. Even in Omni-Tell I would play Emrakul over Kozilek any day of the week, as the 15 damage attack + sac 6 wins the game on the spot 90% of the time, and in the few cases where the opponent sacs 6, deals with whatever other spells I cast during my free turn, and still manages to untap and win the game (e.g. opponent has tons of life, a mentor, and an army of tokens), it's hard to imagine Kozilek faring much better.

My favorite part of casting emrakul (with or without omniscience) is the"can not be countered" clause. No fussing around with Force, just a flying spaghetti monster 👾.