Mud should play neither Null Rod nor Juggernaut

[meadbert]

I will uses Menendian's list from last weeks article as an example:
1 Tolarian Academy
4 Ancient Tomb
4 City Of Traitors
1 Strip Mine
4 Wasteland
4 Mishra's Workshop
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
3 Sculpting Steel
4 Tangle Wire
1 Trinisphere
4 Null Rod
4 Sphere Of Resistance
4 Thorn Of Amethyst
4 Chalice Of The Void
1 Razormane Masticore
4 Juggernaut
4 Lodestone Golem
sideboard
2 Crucible Of Worlds
3 Relic Of Progenitus
4 Tormod's Crypt
4 Duplicant
2 Razormane Masticore

First Null Rod:

The first question to consider is how many of your cards do you cut off versus how many of their cards do you cut off?

Tez will typically run something around 9 artifact mana, a top, + Vault/Key for 12 artifacts that are shut off.

Voltron Oath runs 8 artifact Mana + Vault/Key for 10 cards.

TPS runs 10 artifact mana and Jar for 11 cards.

Noble Fish runs maybe 4 artifact mana.

Dredge runs none.

Note: Tez and Oath each run Tez which is significantly weakened by Rod. 

How many cards are you cutting off in your own deck?

This list contains 9 artifact mana and 4 Null Rods.  Your first Rod cuts off the other 3 so it cuts of 12 cards.

Null Rod cuts off as many or more cards in Mud as in any other and this is not even considering Chalice of the Void and Tangle Wire redundancies.

The next question is how useful are these cards once shut off?

Oath, Tez and TPS have a decent amount of filter.  They run cards like Brainstorm, Ponder, Thirst, Preordain, Impulse and See Beyond which can be used to filter through dead artifacts.
Mud has no such filter.  It top decks blindly and must keep any dead cards it draws.

Further more the previously mentioned decks have the option of bouncing Rod at an opportune moment and then playing and using artifact it has.  Mud does not have this option (although versions with Smokestack can always sacrifice Rod to Stack.)


Going outside of this list Null Rod has some dissynergy with Chalice, Tangle Wire and Smokestack.  Basically opening with Chalice@0 in a deck with Null Rods and a full set of artifact mana is dangerous because you have largely shut off your own Rods and your artifact mana making Chalice possibly worse for you.  Chalice@1 is still a very strong play.
Null Rod can be redundant with Tangle Wire because your opponent will simply tap their dead artifacts.
Likely it is redundant with Smokestack since they will just sacrifice their dead artifacts to Stax.

In order to make Null Rod useful in Shop shell one must add Bazaar of Baghdad.  Once Bazaar is added your ability to filter out dead cards becomes better than your opponents.

The other card that should not be run at all in type 1 right now is Juggernaut.  My problem with Lodestone Golem is that it just happens to be bad against most of the best win conditions right now in that it triggers Oath and does not impact Vault/Key.
Juggernaut is even worse.  Juggernaut attacks into Narcomoebas to create Bridge tokens.  Juggernaut grants any controller of Sphinx of the Steel Wind 6 life be sacrificing itself.
Juggernaut is removed with Mishra's Factory that may be replaced with Crucible of Worlds in other Mud decks.

Juggernaut is weak in most situations.

With a Lodestone Golem out Juggernaut provides no additional disruption, but speeds a 4 turn clock into a 3 turn clock for 4 mana.  If your opponent lost just 1 life on his own then Mishra's Factory, Sword of Fire and Ice and Solemn Simulacrum could all have done the same thing.

If you already have Lodestone Golem out you do not need Juggernaut to help him.  You only need disruption to delay.

What about with no Lodestone Golem?  Perhaps we have disruption and then Juggernaut is the win.  After all, Juggs wins 4 turns later all by himself which is solid.
That is true and Juggernaut is decent here, but still far worse than Smokestack.  Smokestack is "slow" but it does force your opponent to sacrifice 10 permanents in the same amount of time that Juggernaut wins.  Winning might be better than Annihilator (10), but what about doing 15 damage or Annihilator 6?  What about 10 damage or Annihilator 3?  Furthermore, just like Rod, Smokestack also hates out Vault/Key.  Going infinite with Smokey@1 out is tricky and with Smokey@2 forget about it.
If I have a Sphere or two out then I would much rather have Smokey set to 1 or 2 than have swung for 5 or 10 with Juggernaut.

If you already have some disruption with Sphere effects then Smokestack becomes a lock in a turn or two while Juggernaut just eats away at a life total and waits for Oath, Vault/Key or even the lowly Mishra's Factory to drop and end the party.
Four Turns is an eternity to wait hoping that Oath does not hit.

A much better replacement for Null Rod and Juggernaut in Mud is Karn, Silver Golem.  Karn does not effect Vault/Key which is significant, but it is an extremely fast clock and it does eat Moxen in general.  If you keep the board clear of Moxen and get a Resisitor or Thorn out then your opponent needs 5 mana for Tinker which is no easy task.
Also, even if your opponent can Tinker, you have a decent chance of swinging for the win through Sphinx of the Steel Wind or other Tinker targets.

Unlike Rod and Juggernaut which can be dead or worse against Dredge, Karn is actually solid.  You can animate your own Mox to RFG Bridges and the clock provided by Karn is superior to Juggernaut's.

Against Fish, Karn has fewer artifacts to eat and might be shut off by Rod, but even then it can block a Goyf for a long time. (Darn exalted)

One of the best uses of Juggernaut used to be in the mirror.  This is no longer as strong with so many Mud lists running Mishra's Factory which they may be recurring with Crucible of Words.  Karn now wins the aggro race and if your opponent drops a Stack, Karn helps win the permanent war.

One place where Juggernaut is still strong is against Ad Nauseam Tendrils where just s swing or 2 severely impacts your opponent's ability to combo out.

[Smmenen]

First Null Rod:

The first question to consider is how many of your cards do you cut off versus how many of their cards do you cut off?

Didn't we already have this conversation, in the context of Matt Sperling's article here .

Your conclusions are far too broad.   You list the major decks in the format, and suggest that Null Rod is either good -- or not -- against them, and then conclude that you shouldn't run Null Rod.  That methodology doesn't weight matchups by appearance, importance, or anything.  

Let me respond to your criticism of Null Rod:

Null Rod cuts off as many or more cards in Mud as in any other and this is not even considering Chalice of the Void and Tangle Wire redundancies.

This fact doesn't really matter.   First of all, most of the lock parts in this deck are symmetrical, on their face, but asymmetrical, in terms of impact.   

The fact that you cut off as many moxen as your opponent doesn't matter because you are the lock deck!  You are ok losing access to your moxen because you have compensatory features in your deck, like Workshop, Tomb, and City of Traitors.   

And in those matchups where Null Rod is weaker, like Dredge and Fish, you sideboard them out, or compensate with other deck features.   That's how decks work.   If your metagame is mostly Dredge or Fish, then I'd reconsider that decision.  But your analysis doesn't weight matchups.   

Also, I really like Null Rod against other MUD decks, which run cards like Karn, Trike, SOFI, Metalworker, and sometimes cards like Arcbound Ravager.   

The next question is how useful are these cards once shut off?

Oath, Tez and TPS have a decent amount of filter.  They run cards like Brainstorm, Ponder, Thirst, Preordain, Impulse and See Beyond which can be used to filter through dead artifacts.
Mud has no such filter.  It top decks blindly and must keep any dead cards it draws.

Further more the previously mentioned decks have the option of bouncing Rod at an opportune moment and then playing and using artifact it has.  Mud does not have this option (although versions with Smokestack can always sacrifice Rod to Stack.)

Going outside of this list Null Rod has some dissynergy with Chalice, Tangle Wire and Smokestack.  Basically opening with Chalice@0 in a deck with Null Rods and a full set of artifact mana is dangerous because you have largely shut off your own Rods and your artifact mana making Chalice possibly worse for you.  Chalice@1 is still a very strong play.
Null Rod can be redundant with Tangle Wire because your opponent will simply tap their dead artifacts.
Likely it is redundant with Smokestack since they will just sacrifice their dead artifacts to Stax.

In order to make Null Rod useful in Shop shell one must add Bazaar of Baghdad.  Once Bazaar is added your ability to filter out dead cards becomes better than your opponents.

Your claims are so broad, it's breathtaking.   If Null Rod is *only* useful in a Shop shell if you have Bazaar, then why does it sometimes show up in Shop decks, and tournament winning Shop decks?   Obviously, those Rods proved useful. 

Null Rod serves a number of vital functions in Workshop decks:

1) It serves as a lock part, that attacks your opponents mana supply.   The fact that it attacks your own is no different than how Sphere or 3Sphere is symmetrical.   Not even Chalice can stop their mana once it's been played.  Null Rod can.   That's an advantage of Null Rod over Chalice. 

2) It is strategically useful, in stopping Yawg Will (generally, Yawg Wills like to abuse Moxen, Lotus, and other accelleration).   It also slows the opponents ability to resolve Tinker, which is often played with moxen under Spheres.   And, obviously, it stops Key Vault.

3) It synergizes with Lodestone Golem tremendously.  With Golem, your opponent will be able to play moxen unhindered.  Null Rod may be one of the strongest cards in the format with Golem.   

4) It fills gaps that other key cards feature.  For example, both Golem and Spheres allow your opponent to play Moxen.   These artifacts eventually help them break your soft lock.   Null Rod dramatically reduces the chances that they can.   

Juggernaut is weak in most situations.

I mean, really?

Weak in many situations, I can admit.  But in most?   Good luck proving that claim.  

You aren't saying anything new about Juggernaut that hasn't been said before.   Also, your comparisons to Smokestack are inept. 

MUD decks are different.  You can just substitute a card for another.   Smokestack and Juggernaut are not directly comparable.   The shell around them and the metagame largely determines which is optimal.   That's why, in my article on MUD, I posted three different MUD lists that emphasized different things.  You are trying to make a blanket claim that is largely acontextual (despite a reference to some major decks), and thus deeply flawed.   

[Odd mutation]

Hi Meadbert,

I took Stephen's exact list to a third place finish in Breda (The Netherlands) last Sunday. You can read my report and thoughts on the deck here.

I can only attest to Null Rods power, especially next to Lodestone Golem. I was sceptical about Juggernaut at first too but now am convinced it belongs in the deck. At first I prefered Triskelion but it's harder to cast, serves another purpose you don't really need here -I believe- and it doesn't go well with Null Rod.

Robrecht

[madmanmike25]

Does anyone think Null Rod is better than Chalice of the Void?  I ask that because I see so many comparisions of those two cards.  I believe Chalice is superior since it can be free and is actually useful in multiples whereas a second Rod is no better than the first.  Drawing three Rods in a no-draw deck may cost the game.  And yes, Ichorid/Fish don't care about Rod.  I think if you are already running 4 Chalices then you better know your metagame quite well to warrant the inclusions of 4 Rods maindeck.  Ever consider putting 1-2 Rods sb?  Remember folks, our pillar is Workshop not Rod.

Smokestack and Juggernaut are not directly comparable.

I disagree quite strongly with this.  I have typically thought that these 2 cards were in direct competition for deck space.  Seeing as how Oath is pretty much the deck to beat, how can Juggs even come close?  Would I rather my opponent be at 5-10 less life or have 1-2 less permanents in play?  Orchard tokens are GREAT with Smoke out.  Smoke with even just 1 counter is far better than a Juggernaut if your opponent gets Key+Vault online.....or if they cast Oath.....or if they Tinker... 

Which scenario are you more likely to win A) Turn 1 Smoke and CotV@0 or B) Turn 1 Jugg and CotV@0.  If you really think scenario B wins more frequently then you have never had your opponent play 2-3cc game-winning-broken-ass spells.

If you want to find an equilibrium in Smmemen's list it's quite simple.  Take out the 3 Sculpting Steels and the lone Razormane to add in four Smokestacks.  Now THATS a sick deck.  It's aggressive and versatile.  You also have a way to comeback if you fall behind.  Steel is too iffy against Oath.  Too bad you can't copy Vault and then Key because you've already lost at that point.

p.s. For the record I don't think that just because a decklist wins a tournament that it's proved all it needs to prove.  I know because I've won some tournys with decklists that I felt weren't optimal in hindsight.  Sometimes you just win the cointoss/topdeck better/make fewer errors.  Many types of MUD lists can make T4's so don't get carried away and read too much into it.  MUD lists have won plenty without Rods, it's Lodestone Golem that makes the deck a contender once again.

MUD lists can be tailored to suit Null Rod......or cards like Karn/Trike/Metalworker/Staff.  It's more of a preference issue to be honest.

[Smmenen]

Does anyone think Null Rod is better than Chalice of the Void?  I ask that because I see so many comparisions of those two cards.  I believe Chalice is superior since it can be free and is actually useful in multiples whereas a second Rod is no better than the first.  Drawing three Rods in a no-draw deck may cost the game.  And yes, Ichorid/Fish don't care about Rod.  I think if you are already running 4 Chalices then you better know your metagame quite well to warrant the inclusions of 4 Rods maindeck.  Ever consider putting 1-2 Rods sb?  Remember folks, our pillar is Workshop not Rod.

Smokestack and Juggernaut are not directly comparable.

I disagree quite strongly with this.  I have typically thought that these 2 cards were in direct competition for deck space

That doesn't mean that these two cards are directly comparable.   Decks with Smokestack are very different than decks with Juggernaut.  They are trying to do different things.

You can't just swap out one for another.  Your whole deck needs to be rebuilt.   Read my article on MUD,  here, and you'll see that what we can MUD is really very different decklists.   ANT and TPS are different decklists.   Decks with Smokestack and Juggernaut are totally different decks, as well, even though they can sometimes inhabit the same list.

If you are just swapping out Jugg for Stack or vice versa, your deck is misbuilt.   The goal of any deck is to maximize synergies.  You can't just swap a totally different card in or out for another.   You have to rebuild the whole thing. 

[TheBrassMan]

Does anyone think Null Rod is better than Chalice of the Void? 

To directly answer your question, yes. Yes I do.

I agree strongly with everything Stephen is saying in this thread, that these cards are not directly comparable in a vacuum.  However, generally I find Smokestack abusive strategies to be much more effective than Juggernaut abuse strategies, and would not seriously consider playing a Juggernaut deck with anything on the line.  The same could be said of Null Rod over Chalice, though I have no real problem with running the two alongside each other.

MUD lists can be tailored to suit Null Rod......or cards like Karn/Trike/Metalworker/Staff.  It's more of a preference issue to be honest.

This statement is completely true, but it's important to note that basically all deck choices are.  It's personal preference to play Lotus Petal over Black Lotus, but it's also just worse EV.  Some people have more success with worse cards, and it's their preference to do so, but just getting better and running stronger cards would give them consistently higher finishes.

[meadbert]

I think Chalice is better than Rod mostly because you can set it at 1 or 2 to stop Vault/Key although Tinker dodges that.
Chalice@1 in conjunction with Leyline gets close to locking out Dredge.
Also Chalice@2 shuts of Oath and wrecks fish.  Chalice's flexibilty and usefulness in duplicates are its primary advantages.

I do not like Triskelion in a deck with neither Worker nor Welder.  Karn seems best here, although 5cc is worse than 4cc.

Getting back to Juggernaut and Null Rod:

Null Rod a close call.  In my analysis I basically said Mud probably shuts off more of its own cards  than its opponents, but excluding Fish and Dredge the difference is not that great.  Null Rod is certainly not terrible and as Steve said, although you are shutting off your own cards you are the lock deck so you need them less.

Juggernaut is not a close call.  While powerful in a vacuum it is just terrible in the current metagame for all the reasons that I listed. 
The one matchup where I liked it (ANT) was the matchup where Odd Mutation boarded it out.

I have been testing this deck a lot.  Ironically what I have been seeing is the opposite of what happened to Odd Mutation at his tournament.
Basically I have been seeing a very strong matchup against ANT, TPS and Non Oath Drain decks.
The Dredge matchup is favorable.
The Oath matchup is poor.
The Noble Fish matchup is poor.
The Shop mirror is poor.

On the whole not bad results at all, but I think they could be better.

Stax can get Smokestack to 1 against Oath and then use Factory beats to win.  If an Orchard hits you Waste it on their turn and then sac Token to smokey.
Juggernaut does the reverse and triggers Oath while mana denial in general is ineffective at keeping 2cc spells off the table.

Factory with Crucible is an annoyance for Fish.  Their options are to swing with a token Goyf in which case you can chump block and replay with Crucible endlessly or they can attack with multiple creatures and just lose Meddling Mage etc to Factory.
Fish cannot combo out and needs it permanets so Smokestack is a huge threat if it resolves
Juggernaut is definitely good against Fish, it is just worse than Crucible of Worlds and Smokestack.
Obviously Null Rod is weak against Fish.

Although Juggernauts used to be great in the Shop mirror that is not as true now that Mishra's Factories and Duplicants are so common.
Also, playing 0 basics or Crucibles while packing your own Rods is a huge risk against another Shop deck that might be playing Crucible.
That token Crucible means they can Wastelock you if you drop Rod or they recycle Factories to remove attacking Juggernauts and Lodestone Golems if you do not drop Rod.
Either is bad.

Add to that the problem of Ensnaring Bridge.
This deck has no realistic way of removing Ensnaring Bridge.
Option #1 is to play Sculpting Steel on opposing Smokestack and then somehow win a permanent war with neither Welder nor Crucible.
Option #2 is to lock out opponent with Spheres and Rod and then wait for their hand to fill to 5 cards so you can attack.  This implies that you kept in your mana denial
against a Stax deck which is generally not what you want to be doing.  Instead you probably want to board out Resistors for Duplicants.
Even if you do drop some lock components, Bazaar messes this up and if they can use Crucible to recycle their lands they can keep playing out their hand for a long time.

Much of my criticism is answered with the board.  I do like the two Crucibles in the board although I wonder if there should be more since you really want them against any deck with Wasteland.
Razormane Masticore is great against Fish so some of my criticisms are resolve there.

So here are some questions I have from those of you who have been testing Steve's list:


#1:  Lets say Null Rods should be kept in some number.
Is four Rods the correct number for the main deck?
I notice that Odd Mutation almost always boarded out 1 and that was even against lists where Rod is supposedly good.
Perhaps 2 or 3 Rods would be better?

#2 Can some number of Karn, Silver Golems be substituted for Juggernaughts?  Karn comes down a turn later, but eats Moxen and is a faster clock.

#3 Might 4 City of Traitors be too many?  In Steve's article I see that City led to either a game loss or at least a mulligan in certain situations.  2 Cities are bad.  Just dropping
from 4 to 3 halves the probability of having 2 in opening hand.  If City were dropped, what makes the most sense as a replacement.  One option is Serum Powder which
seems suboptimal in this list because of the Rods (although given how much Odd Mutation mulliganed perhaps they are okay.)
Another option is Factory which can be a clock, can block Juggernaught or is a way to win through a resolved Oath.
Another option is Petrified Field which can recur Wasteland, Strip Mine or Workshop.
A final option is Ghost Quarter which is probably not the way to go without Crucibles.

#4 Is it okay to have no reliable way of removing Ensnaring Bridge?  Can we really get away with hoping to lock out a Lock deck post board given that both guys are probably boarding out Spheres?  What options exist other than Smokestack for handling Ensnaring Bridge.  Power Keg is possible.  It is solid against Fish, removes Welders, Bridge tokens, Orchard tokens and Warrens tokens.  The problem is that Keg has some dissynergy with Rod.

[TheBrassMan]

I think Chalice is better than Rod mostly because you can set it at 1 or 2 to stop Vault/Key although Tinker dodges that.

I really couldn't let that slide.... Null Rod stops Vault AND Key, even if they're already out, even if they have a Tinker, and costs less mana than a chalice at 2.  Chalice is actually much worse at that job, which you've stated is the reason it's better.

Chalice does have some flexibility in other matchups, like oath as you mentioned, which is certainly nice, but Workshops already struggle on the draw, and Chalice is just worse there.  Really though, shutting off artifact mana is an important enough job to warrant some number of both.

I can't really comment on the specific questions about Steve's list, as my shop list is very different.  The list I play runs 3 Null Rods, 0 Juggarnaut, 0 Karn, 0 City of Traitors, and I'm comfortable with just Smokestack against Ensnaring Bridge; stopping them from hitting 3 mana or stopping them from playing down to 4 cards in hand are also valid plans. 

[Bill Copes]

#3 Might 4 City of Traitors be too many?  In Steve's article I see that City led to either a game loss or at least a mulligan in certain situations.  2 Cities are bad.  Just dropping
from 4 to 3 halves the probability of having 2 in opening hand.  If City were dropped, what makes the most sense as a replacement.  One option is Serum Powder which
seems suboptimal in this list because of the Rods (although given how much Odd Mutation mulliganed perhaps they are okay.)
Another option is Factory which can be a clock, can block Juggernaught or is a way to win through a resolved Oath.
Another option is Petrified Field which can recur Wasteland, Strip Mine or Workshop.
A final option is Ghost Quarter which is probably not the way to go without Crucibles.

Crystal Vein isn't a terrible option if you're running crucible.  I'd rather be running factories, myself.

[madmanmike25]

Does anyone think Null Rod is better than Chalice of the Void? 

To directly answer your question, yes. Yes I do.

And I would disagree with you on that.  While you can run both, if you had 4 slots left and were forced to choose between Rod or Chalice in a MUD deck, Chalice is much more potent and versatile in my opinion.  Another way to say that is that I've seen more decks run Chalice and NOT Rod than I have seen lists that run Rod and NOT Chalice.  I think depending on the rest of the deck, in most cases several Rods can easily be included.  The printing of Lodeston Golem supports my claim.  You are FAR more likely to be able to cast CotV@0 AND a Lodestone Golem than you are able to cast Lodestone AND Null Rod on the same turn.  Six mana isn't always online turn 1 with high frequency.  Four mana isn't that difficult to get and from my experience that is a common and potent play.  Again, you can mix Rods and Chalices and that may alleviate some issues people seem to be having.  But a MUD deck that runs Null Rod and not Chalice strikes me as inferior.

MUD lists can be tailored to suit Null Rod......or cards like Karn/Trike/Metalworker/Staff.  It's more of a preference issue to be honest.

This statement is completely true, but it's important to note that basically all deck choices are.  It's personal preference to play Lotus Petal over Black Lotus, but it's also just worse EV.  Some people have more success with worse cards, and it's their preference to do so, but just getting better and running stronger cards would give them consistently higher finishes.

I'm not sure I understand your addition to my statement.  Lotus Petal is clearly worse than Black Lotus.  I think that it would be ignorance, and not preference, to use Petal instead.  Are you relating Chalice and Null Rod to your Petal and Lotus comparision?  Are you trying to say that adding Null Rod(being the stronger card in your opinion) would lead to "consistently higher finishes"?

I think a lot of you underestimate MUD decks that use activated abilities that cannot be played alongside Null Rod.

[fatalist.remix]

Much of my criticism is answered with the board.  I do like the two Crucibles in the board although I wonder if there should be more since you really want them against any deck with Wasteland.

I took second at RIW's Vintage tournament with Menendian's deck this weekend with only one minor variation.  I went down to three Null Rods main and added a second Razormane main while swapping them around in the board for three Crucibles and one Masticore side.  Null Rod was good all day, especially against the other MUD decks that were running sets of Metalworkers in place of Rods.

[TheBrassMan]

Another way to say that is that I've seen more decks run Chalice and NOT Rod than I have seen lists that run Rod and NOT Chalice.

This will likely not endear me to the reader, but it's been my opinion for a long time that the majority of lists are just wrong.  This is not limited to Stax by any stretch.  Most lists are wrong, period, which means it does not surprise me that  you've seen more lists running chalice and not rod.  This opinion, of course, is highly debatable and subjective, and while I firmly believe it, I won't judge you or defend it if you disagree.

That said, currently my list runs 4 Chalice and 3 Null Rod.  You could interpret this as me favoring Chalice if you like.  I think Null Rod is the stronger, more important card, but run only 3 because it's redundant in multiples, where chalice is not.  (Similarly, Tendrils is the most functionally important card in TPS, but players rarely run more than 2.)  I would be more likely to cut chalice than Null Rod were I short of slots, but it's clear we just disagree on that.  I think that Null Rod is more important in the games that matter most, meaning the mirror, and Tezzeret and artifact mana heavy decks on the draw.

I think that it would be ignorance, and not preference, to use Petal instead.  Are you relating Chalice and Null Rod to your Petal and Lotus comparision?  Are you trying to say that adding Null Rod(being the stronger card in your opinion) would lead to "consistently higher finishes"?

Well yes - but more importantly (to be less subtle) I'm equating preference with ignorance, or at best the willful decision to run a suboptimal card because you enjoy it more.  I'm a firm believer in "there is only one correct play, and many mistakes," but this is outside the scope of a Workshop discussion.  Really any debate we have with Chalice is academic, as we both think the card is worth running.  It's really closer to Null Rod vs Metalworker (but actually more complex than that, as Stephen wrote).  

I think a lot of you underestimate MUD decks that use activated abilities that cannot be played alongside Null Rod.

That's what it really boils down to.  You think I'm underestimating activated abilities and I think you're underestimating Null Rod (and/or overestimating activated abilities).  We're probably both a little right

[Neonico]

In fact, i think that it's just a matter of consistency, because lot of MUD games play only with 10 cards and no draw/CA engine.

 - The actual MUD lists tend to be able to etablish a very hard lock, but sometimes fail to be able to kill before the opponent can break it (EoT rebuild, my turn GG) that's why playing 8 juggernauts lik instead of 4 seem to be correct for me. I think that the correct number of CMC=4 creatures in an aggro build is 10. (That's why i agree with smennen when he suggested to add 1 Suchi in his build). I had the exact same analysis as fatalist, removing 4th rod for Another beater.

 - The lodestone golem is a fast clock and can delay any spell but the moxen, making it less non-symetric card than any other in the deck. That's why having acces to 6-8 cards that avoid moxen use is also correct to me. Also it's just not consistency, it's also that fitting that role, one is good on the play and have other uses after turn 1, the other is good both on the play and on the draw.

And to be honest, it's hard to agree/disagree with the "null rod and juggys are useless in MUD" statement whithout a list to see what you play instead.
I also don't understand the "Null rod shuts down many card in your deck" argument. Fact is that it's really non symetrical, even if it hurts more card in your deck than in your opponent's deck, simply because you play Shops, City of traitors and Ancient tomb.... Even landing null rod turn 1 often let you with the 4-5 manas you'll need on turn 2 to correctly operate.

[BruiZar]

Another way to say that is that I've seen more decks run Chalice and NOT Rod than I have seen lists that run Rod and NOT Chalice.

This will likely not endear me to the reader, but it's been my opinion for a long time that the majority of lists are just wrong.  This is not limited to Stax by any stretch.  Most lists are wrong, period, which means it does not surprise me that  you've seen more lists running chalice and not rod.  This opinion, of course, is highly debatable and subjective, and while I firmly believe it, I won't judge you or defend it if you disagree.

That said, currently my list runs 4 Chalice and 3 Null Rod.  You could interpret this as me favoring Chalice if you like.  I think Null Rod is the stronger, more important card, but run only 3 because it's redundant in multiples, where chalice is not.  (Similarly, Tendrils is the most functionally important card in TPS, but players rarely run more than 2.)  I would be more likely to cut chalice than Null Rod were I short of slots, but it's clear we just disagree on that.  I think that Null Rod is more important in the games that matter most, meaning the mirror, and Tezzeret and artifact mana heavy decks on the draw.

I think a lot of you underestimate MUD decks that use activated abilities that cannot be played alongside Null Rod.

That's what it really boils down to.  You think I'm underestimating activated abilities and I think you're underestimating Null Rod (and/or overestimating activated abilities).  We're probably both a little right

The optimal mix for me is 4xNull Rod 2xChalice of the Void. This gives you 6 ways to blank moxen on the play and gives you enough Chalices to ensure that they can be used to blank an Oath while not cluttering your hand up on the draw. Welding out moxen with Null Rod in play is a good way to take advantage of otherwise useless moxen. My  favorite Workshop deck with Null Rod is Stax running Goblin Welder and a single Tetravus. Tetravus is an overlooked card that can chump Sphinx all day long and works under a Null Rod and under an Ensnaring Bridge. Best of all, he doesn´t require mana.

The most important choice is not Between Null Rod or Chalice of the Void, it is between Null Rod and Karn, Silver Golem. Lists running welder can afford to run Gorilla Shaman instead of Karn, Silver Golem, but it's just not as good as Karn.

[madmanmike25]

That said, currently my list runs 4 Chalice and 3 Null Rod.  You could interpret this as me favoring Chalice if you like.

Yeah, that's how I would interpret it.  Honestly vs Oath I'm all about CotV@2 because it still shuts off Vault.  After that just stop Tinker.  I'm still more concerned about Oath of Druids than I am Key+Vault.  Null Rod makes a broken 2cc enchantment......a broken 2 cc enchantment.  Games 2-3 CotV@1 becomes more potent due to Natures Claim.  Does Null Rod become more potent?

It's really closer to Null Rod vs Metalworker (but actually more complex than that, as Stephen wrote).  

Perhaps, but I've been able to run both Karn and Triskelion without Metalworkers though, so yeah thats a tad oversimplified.

That's what it really boils down to.  You think I'm underestimating activated abilities and I think you're underestimating Null Rod (and/or overestimating activated abilities).  We're probably both a little right.

Oh no, I don't underestimate Null Rod.  I never said I agreed with the title of the thread.  If fact the two cards are quite complimentary, having Null Rod out lets you start setting your Chalices @ 1.  I'm just saying that there is no way it is possible for Rod to be better than Chalice in my opinion.  Yet another fact is that back in January of '07 I started a Null MUD thread without Metalworkers.  Believe it or not, the thought of not running Metalworkers back then was quite a new concept.  God, if only we had Lodestones back then...
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=31732.msg457420#msg457420

To clarify my position I'll say (yet again) that MUD can go many directions and cards like Juggernaut, Smokestack, Null Rod, Sculpting Steel, Serum Powder, etc. etc. can still make appearances in T8's or T'4s in smaller events.  Why can't we all just agree that Lodestone Golem is an awesome card that allows MUD builds to vary?

@Bruizar  If participating please remember this is a MUD thread and talking about Welders to swap out moxen doesn't really apply here.

[TheBrassMan]

Alright, I think I understand your perspective a little better now.  I guess the argument "which is better, null rod or chalice" is a little silly, when we both agree that they're both strong. 

I think where I'm coming from is that Chalice is so pervasive, I've just seen a lot of really terrible lists with Chalice in them, of course I've also seen good ones.  Null Rod is less common and more specific, and as I think it's correct, "any given Chalice+Shop deck" is going to be, on average, worse than "any given Null Rod +Shop deck", just based on probability, even if every Null Rod deck is also a Chalice deck.  I mean you could replace chalice with Workshop entirely.  "The average Workshop deck is worse than the average Workshop+Null Rod deck."  I believe that statement, but I would unquestionably cut Null Rods before I would cut Workshops.  I have no idea if that line of reasoning made any sense, I honestly felt a little ridiculous typing it out.

I will most definitely agree with you that Lodestone is ridiculous, and is in fact so good that a variety of builds can compete/crush opposition.  However I think that just because Lodestone makes multiple builds much stronger, some of those builds are still weaker than others, and those builds are still incorrect, even if they're much better than they used to be.  I think Null Rod is one of the cards that makes it into a correct build, and I'm not particularly excited by the cards it fights with, like Triskelion, Metalworker, Karn (though if I were tempted by one it would be Karn).

I have no problem conceding though, that if there is a correct build, it almost definitely runs both Lodestones and Chalices.

[meadbert]

So a significant advantage of Juggernaut over Smokestack is Spell Pierce. 

[Neonico]

That, and also smokestack is allways at least 1 turn to slow for me when I tested it out....

[Smmenen]

Yeah, Meadbert, none of your reasons for dismissing Juggernaut are actually new.   Juggernaut has long been a whipping boy of Vintage, winning tournaments while being scoffed at.    Your analysis makes it seem like you think you can devise an objective answer to a highly contextual question.  And in the process, you fail to appreciate what Juggernaut does and why its there.   

Decks with Smokestack are more likely to be designed to survive a long game.    My MUD list is not.   It's designed to impose a nearly insurmountable short term lock such that Juggernaut, et al will win the game before the opponent can  break out.   It recognizes that the opponent may be able to play spells, but it tries to delay their relevance or address them directly.  Thus, while my MUD list recognizes that the opponent can resolve Oath, it tries to win the game before Oath can be activated or just after the first Oath activation.  And so on.   

[aosquirrels]

To clarify my position I'll say (yet again) that MUD can go many directions and cards like Juggernaut, Smokestack, Null Rod, Sculpting Steel, Serum Powder, etc. etc. can still make appearances in T8's or T'4s in smaller events.  Why can't we all just agree that Lodestone Golem is an awesome card that allows MUD builds to vary?

Amen to that.  It's all a matter of what you are comfortable with.  This past weekend I played in the finals where I was playing MUD w/metalworker and my opponent was playing MUD w/null rods.  Even though I lost the match 2-1 it doesn't change my preference of which version to play. 

[meadbert]

That, and also smokestack is allways at least 1 turn to slow for me when I tested it out....

How is Smokestack slower than Juggernaut?

[TheShop]

That, and also smokestack is allways at least 1 turn to slow for me when I tested it out....

How is smokestack any slower than Juggs?  That is a card that potentially doesnt even effect the gamestate until they die 4 turns later.  At least I can pay 4 to own a permanent the next turn.  1 permanent loss in a deck full of components is absolutely, unequivocally NOT slower than a 5/3.

On a more general note:

I am not sure I could write off either method after reading this and knowing that juggs whipped people all day long back in the days before "the man show" existed and knowing that smokestack has been in the vast majority of winning stax decks in history.

Also, null rod seems far more efficient when used in a deck with bazaar.  Being able to play spells from your busted lands is not as helpful when the cards in your hand are turned off.  Blue decks will be filtering.

[Neonico]

Smennen perfactly answered this question.

As shown by the name of the section this thread is in, people tend to compare 2 totally différent approach for MUD :
 - one is very close of fish, playing denial strategy to gain enough tempo to win with his beaters,
 - one other Plays a board control strategy

juggys and null rod are good in the first when stack, Karn and metalworker are good in the second. It's not a good thing for me to make statements like "juggys and null rod shouldn't be player in MUD

[TheBrassMan]

Note that I'm not implying Juggernaut doesn't make sense in some lists.  I'm saying that if Juggernaut makes sense in your list, your list is probably wrong.  I would never suggest someone play Tinker over Lightning Bolt in a burn deck, but I would certainly tell a friend to play a deck with Tinker over a deck that actually wants Lightning Bolt.  Sure Juggernaut rewards different kinds of play, and promotes a different kind of strategy, but some strategies are just worse than others.  Sure aggro MUD is better than a lot of decks, I'm not trying to put it on the same level as Vintage Owling Mine or Stasis, but in my opinion it's worse than others as well.  As in all things, good is the enemy of correct.

I can only speak for myself here, I don't know if this is in line with what meadbert intended the thread to be about.  I think this line of discussion is on topic for this thread, but if I'm derailing here let me know and I'll shut up for y'all

[Neonico]

It's where i allmost entirely disagree with you....
With so many sphere effects aviable, I really think that the best strategy is to win before your opponnent can break out....

And there is one major argument to play this strategy more than any other workshop based strategy : it consistently beats the mirror match playing more prison style, playing metalworker, etc....

[Killane]

It's where i allmost entirely disagree with you....
With so many sphere effects aviable, I really think that the best strategy is to win before your opponnent can break out....

And there is one major argument to play this strategy more than any other workshop based strategy : it consistently beats the mirror match playing more prison style, playing metalworker, etc....

This is soo true. I'm no shops pilot, but I'm uch more afarid of facing a shop deck with a billion spheres and a quick clock than i am of facing someign that gives me time to "bounce and trounce" 

[TheShop]

You are on a clock either way, it's just not as immediately visable...you also have the ability to bounce in either scenario.  Sphere+no mana is just as lethal as sphere + 5/3 reducing life to 0.  The soft lock stage in prison is directly comparable to life totals 20-1 vs aggro.

[TheBrassMan]

And there is one major argument to play this strategy more than any other workshop based strategy : it consistently beats the mirror match playing more prison style, playing metalworker, etc....

This is interesting, the shop matchup is one of the reasons I prefer Stax with red (and Null Rod) to MUD.  I can see the argument for Juggernaut in that match, though I think there are better options, many of which are red.  I am glad to see that pretty much everyone in this thread thinks Metalworker sucks though

This is soo true. I'm no shops pilot, but I'm uch more afarid of facing a shop deck with a billion spheres and a quick clock than i am of facing someign that gives me time to "bounce and trounce" 

This is exactly why I think Smokestack is stronger than Juggernaut.  If you have enough lands to Hurkyl's right now, neither Smokestack nor Juggernaut will stop you, though Smokestack forces them to Hurkyl's now, and Juggernaut gives them a few turns to build a better hand.  If you don't have enough mana the turn after Smokestack hits, you never will - the game is already over (note that this is a 1 turn clock).  If you don't have enough mana the turn after Juggernaut hits, you have three turns to find it.  This is really only how the Tezzeret and TPS matchups play out, as those are the most Hurkyl's centric.

On the other hand Fish and Ichorid can just block or race a Juggernaut - but in all fairness Smokestack isn't very exciting there either.

The Oath matchup is clearly embarrassing for the Juggernaut player, as an early Smokestack turns a great Oath hand into a loss, where an early Juggernaut turns a bad Oath hand into a win.

Juggernaut is probably better in the shop mirror, though not dramatically, and this is really contingent on the rest of your deck.

Besides the fact that it is often much faster than Juggernaut, Smokestack also gives you outs to things you can't otherwise beat.  Smokestack/Wire used to be the only out to Tinker, though Sculpting Steel has become strong in this regard.  The list at the beginning of the thread, however, concedes to something like Ensnaring Bridge, but -4 juggernaut +4 smokestack and it wouldn't even notice the card was there.

Actually now that I think about it... as Stax is the matchup I'm most afraid of going into GenCon... scratch all that.  ALL HAIL JUGGERNAUT AND METALWORKER!

[madmanmike25]

This is soo true. I'm no shops pilot, but I'm (m)uch more afarid of facing a shop deck with a billion spheres and a quick clock than i am of facing someign that gives me time to "bounce and trounce" 

See, this intrigues me.  The way I see it taking 5-10 life from my opponent in no way shape or form prohibits them from getting mana needed to cast Hurks or Rebuild.  Juggernaut does NOT have haste.  He has essentially the same 'speed' as Smokestack, a card which DOES prevent the opponent from building up mana under Spheres, Thorns, Chalices, and Tangles.

I think it's easier for the opponent to win with a lower life total than with a lower mana count.

Brassman is very blunt (and probably right) in his assertation of Juggernaut even though you can still win against opponents who play with walls.  It's a shame Rod and Sword can't go in the same deck because a 7/5 pro red and blue that pings for 2 and draws a card is pretty scary.  Btw Brassman mind posting your list in the MUD thread?

[TheBrassMan]

I feel like a jerk saying this, but it's one of two decks I'm looking at for GenCon, and I'd rather not throw it out card for card until I play it/discount the idea.  It's definitely closer to what people would call a Stax deck than a MUD deck, and while I don't make the differentiation myself when I test/brainstorm, this may not be the best thread for it anyway.