Mud should play neither Null Rod nor Juggernaut

[Meddling Mike]

I disagree with the thought that Null Rod shouldn't see play because it's symmetrical or near symmetrical. As Steve pointed out, many of the effects in the deck are nearly symmetrical, but the concept of the deck is that it is designed to work under those conditions. The same logic can be applied to wasteland, it puts you off a land and puts me off a land, but I can cope with losing a mana source because I have a workshop and can potentially replay wasteland with Crucible.

That said, I'm not sure I would say it's "better" than Chalice of the Void. I wanted to list the pros and cons of each, but there's just way too many to list. Chalice is much better in some matchups and on the play and I don't mind seeing multiples. Null Rod is much better against vault/key and after the moxes are already on the table.

Juggernaut's probably not good enough to make the cut these days, but I can accept that under the right metagame conditions he could be playable. I'm not sure that the comparison between that and smokestack is a fair one. I get it, it's a 4cc artifact that takes about a turn before it does stuff, but it's a clock v. a lock. They play better with certain cards, smokestack gets better if you have tangle wires, crucibles, etc. and Juggernaut enjoys the occasional SoFaI, but is a far more independent standalone card. If he were playing the card in lieu of Lodestone Golem (Is this guy enough of a staple yet that I can acronym him as LSG?) and the metagame consists of something other than artifact based wall/mindslaver deck I'd say he's clearly wrong, but it's not that simple, he's taking a different strategy into a different metagame and building to it's strengths.

[Neonico]

This is soo true. I'm no shops pilot, but I'm (m)uch more afarid of facing a shop deck with a billion spheres and a quick clock than i am of facing someign that gives me time to "bounce and trounce"  

See, this intrigues me.  The way I see it taking 5-10 life from my opponent in no way shape or form prohibits them from getting mana needed to cast Hurks or Rebuild.  Juggernaut does NOT have haste.  He has essentially the same 'speed' as Smokestack, a card which DOES prevent the opponent from building up mana under Spheres, Thorns, Chalices, and Tangles.

I think it's easier for the opponent to win with a lower life total than with a lower mana count.

Brassman is very blunt (and probably right) in his assertation of Juggernaut even though you can still win against opponents who play with walls.  It's a shame Rod and Sword can't go in the same deck because a 7/5 pro red and blue that pings for 2 and draws a card is pretty scary.  Btw Brassman mind posting your list in the MUD thread?

In fact, what people seems to forget in their analysis is that you play an average 10 CMC=4 beaters in the deck. It's really common to go Lock on turn 1, beater on turn 2 Beater + lock on turn 3, and that spell GG, when Smokestack instead of beater gives more window of opportunity to deal with the lock giving you at least 2 more turns before being trully effective (Stack isn't effective in games before it htis 2 soot counters and your opponent sacrifice 2 permanent in a single turn)

The second Disadvantage of smokestack in a MUD deck compared to juggernaut (considering they are both counterpart of the other in prison and aggro strategy) is that smokestack needs to play cards i consider subpar maindeck in the actual metagame : Crucible of Worlds (and most Prison MUD also play meytalworker) when juggernaut is just the straightfoward complement for your main strategy and the core of the deck, and it needs nothing more than Spheres in play to be effective.

And to anyone opposing Oath to the viability of the aggro strategy, the fact is that playing juggernauts (not in the deck, i mean having them in play) has allmost never been a problem for me to win against Oath. The clock is so fast that the oath player is often dead on board when he manages to oath up a creature. In my expêrience, Aggro MUD, like MEandeck MUd, are positive against oath, both pre and post sideboard.

[meadbert]

I am still totally confused about how Juggernaut is faster than Smokestack.  Can someone type like a two sentence explanation?
And please do not say something silly like Smokestack with 1 soot counter is not effective.

[madmanmike25]

In fact, what people seems to forget in their analysis is that you play an average 10 CMC=4 beaters in the deck. It's really common to go Lock on turn 1, beater on turn 2 Beater + lock on turn 3, and that spell GG, when Smokestack instead of beater gives more window of opportunity to deal with the lock giving you at least 2 more turns before being trully effective (Stack isn't effective in games before it htis 2 soot counters and your opponent sacrifice 2 permanent in a single turn)

That's not true.  Juggernaut taking 5 life is not as good as my opponent having to sacrificing a permanent.  I would even venture to say that Juggernaut taking 10 life isn't the same as your opponent having to sacrifice THREE permanents, remember Smokestack has a snowball effect.  In your example I don't think 2 locks and gg is going to go the distance.  Smokestack makes the other locks better since many times your opponents have to lose mana sources which can prevent them from doing anything at all.  I will concede that probably versus ANT that 5-10 life matters more.

The second Disadvantage of smokestack in a MUD deck compared to juggernaut (considering they are both counterpart of the other in prison and aggro strategy) is that smokestack needs to play cards i consider subpar maindeck in the actual metagame : Crucible of Worlds (and most Prison MUD also play meytalworker) when juggernaut is just the straightfoward complement for your main strategy and the core of the deck, and it needs nothing more than Spheres in play to be effective.

Again, that's not actually true.  You do NOT have to play Crucible to play with Smokestack.   You already run 59-60 permanents, which is enough.  Crucible is golden in the mirrors though.  Even a turn 1 metalworker from my opponent is golden if I can't answer it on the next turn.

And regarding Oath, I just dont feel that a 5/3 is even comparable to they fatties they can put in play for 1G.  If your Jugg can squeeze in for 20 enough for you to win more often than not then you must have the luck of the devil or your opponent is Oathing up Grizzly Bear.

BTW I'm not saying you cannot run Juggernaut, I'm just saying its nowhere near as powerful as Smokestack.  As I have suggested, you can actually run both cards alongside Lodestone Golem if you want to play that meandeck list.  I have tested it and it works when you take out 3 Steels and 1 Razor for 4 Smokes.  Super-high-threat-density.  I'm tired of people thinking you are either Aggro or Stax when you run so many IDENTICAL cards.  Sphere, Chalice, Rod, Thorn, Tangle, Wasteland, Strip are ALL LOCKPIECES  it's getting rather old that some people can't fathom how those cards can synergize with Smokestack.  They see Smokestack as "slow" when it hits the enemy at virtually the same speed as Juggernaut.  It is fair to say that the deck leans one way or the other though.  Staff combo is another beast entirely.

Tell ya what MUD players, take out 4 lockpieces of your choice and add in 4 Su-Chi and tell me if the deck got better or worse.  Then take out 4 more lockpieces of your choice and add in Synod Centurion, test and tell me if it's better or worse.  A MUD DECK NEEDS A BALANCE OF LOCKPIECES AND AGGRO.  If you go to far one way or the other the deck fails.  If you make superlockdown.dec with only 4 Lodestones as win-cons you will probably fail too.  You could add in Orb of Dreams, Winter Orb, Powder Keg, etc. etc....and it would be bad.  MUD without Rods typically uses KARN as it provides all the aggro you need.

[Neonico]

I am still totally confused about how Juggernaut is faster than Smokestack.  Can someone type like a two sentence explanation?
And please do not say something silly like Smokestack with 1 soot counter is not effective.

The fact is that the real true impact on a game for smokestack is when they have to sacrifice a ressource they cannot replace.
And as i don't compare Jugg and smokestack, or Aggro shop and prison shop, i never said that jugg is faster or slower than smokestack. I just said taht you can win faster after having casting a Juggernaut than a smokestack.

And i still think that smokestack alone is bad (you have to have something other than spheres to make it effective, such as tangle or Crucible)

[BruiZar]

Everybody is talking about oath as if oath actually oaths up creatures. May I remind you that very often, perhaps more often than using Oath of Druids, Oath wins by assembling Vault/Key through Tutors, Tezzeret or Jace.

People should discuss the strategy against Oath in the context that not only Oath of Druids wins the game for them. Not running juggernaut doesn´t mean you auto-win because you don´t trigger their Oath with Smokestack (which btw, you also do with Lodestone Golem).

[Smmenen]

I am still totally confused about how Juggernaut is faster than Smokestack.  Can someone type like a two sentence explanation?
And please do not say something silly like Smokestack with 1 soot counter is not effective.

I already answered this question in both of my articles on MUD.

Consider this sequence:

T1: Lodestone Golem
T2: Smokestack or Juggernaut

Which turn two is better? 

Fully analyze.

And then, once you've done that, and you've realized that Juggernaut has more synergy with Lodestone Golem (one of, if not the, best card in the deck) than Smokestack, then consider what I wrote in my MUD article, :

4) Smokestack

It’s a great card, but I think that people are missing the point. You don’t need to lock them out of the game. You want to win the game. Turn 1 Chalice, Juggernaut, turn 2 Spheres, turn 3 Spheres and other lock parts, wins the game.

But more importantly, Juggernaut is better in the matchups where MUD may be weaker: Workshop mirrors and Fish.

It's all about tempo.   Smokestack is about control.   

Consider the very simple sequence:

T1: Mox, Shop, Juggernaut; Underground Sea
T2: Wasteland their their Sea, attack

What you've done is rewind the game exactly one turn, and you've gotten 5 damage out of it.

That's the whole idea about Juggernaut.   

Consider this sequence:

T1: mox, shop juggernaut
T2: Sphere
T3: Sphere
T4: Sphere
T5: Sphere

Now, that's an exaggeration, but it illustrates the main point.   "Sphere" here can be almost any spell in your deck, or Wasteland, since they all do the same thing: gain a little bit of tempo with Jugg in play.    If you consider that every card in the deck is designed to gain a little bit of tempo each turn, whether it's Tangle Wire, Null Rod, Chalice, Wasteland, Sphere, Thorn or Golem itself, then you can see how Juggernaut is faster. 

***

Just as a side note, I illustrated this principle in an SCG article I wrote six years ago on Tempo :

To illustrate, consider two turns in a hypothetical sample game of TnT (Tools N' Tubbies - a Mishra's Workshop based Aggro deck) versus a generic Type One control deck.

Turn One:
Tubbies: Play Mishra's Workshop and Mox Pearl. Drop Juggernaut.

Control deck: Drop Underground Sea and Mox Pearl

Turn Two:
Tubbies: Attack with Juggernaut. Control player is at fifteen life. Play Wasteland. Wasteland the Underground Sea.

The control player will be at a least at ten life before they get a second land. This simple play effectively sets the control deck back a turn. A turn away from playing Psychatog. A turn away from dropping Exalted Angel as a Morph. A turn away from getting Mana Drain up to counter spells and fuel answers. That is tempo - it was a Time Walk for the Tubbies player. But to what end?

[meadbert]

Consider this sequence:

T1: Lodestone Golem
T2: Smokestack or Juggernaut

Which turn two is better? 

Fully analyze.

The only advantage I see for Juggernaut there is Spell Pierce which is reasonably likely.
They could go land, Mox and then Pierce Smokey.

Past that, your great fear should be a Vault/Key win with Moxen.  Juggernaut and Golem swing for the win on turn 4.
By then you would have ramped Smokey to 2 anyway so Vault/Key cannot get there.
By turn 3 Golem and Juggs have swung for 15, but you are wide open to Vault/Key.
Meanwhile Smokey@1 with Golem messing up bounce makes Vault/Key difficult to pull off.

I saw turn 2 Smokey is better.

Regarding this scenario:
T1: Mox, Shop, Juggernaut; Underground Sea
T2: Wasteland their their Sea, attack

It looks like you will win, but same if Juggernaut had been Smokestack.  What if they do this slightly differently?
T1: Mox, Shop, Juggernaut; Mox, Key, Underground Sea
T2: Wasteland their their Sea (Response Vamp for Vault), attack;Sea, Vault
T3: Play something irrelevant like Golem, Juggs#2, Steel, Resistor, Chalice, Thorn, Wire; Win

In that case Smokey would have won.  Juggernaut loses.

Regarding this scenario:
Turn One:
Tubbies: Play Mishra's Workshop and Mox Pearl. Drop Juggernaut.

Control deck: Drop Underground Sea and Mox Pearl

Smokestack will win here too since you can ramp Smokey to 1 and Waste to wipe their board or Ramp to 1 and play another permament or even hold off on ramping to make them commit more and just Waste right now.

There are scenarios where you might lose like they go Mana Crypt, Land, Tinker next turn but so does Juggernaut.


In all of this the main advantage I see for Juggernaut is that he cannot be Spell Pierced.

[Troy_Costisick]

By turn 3 Golem and Juggs have swung for 15, but you are wide open to Vault/Key.

Well, yeah, but two Fetch Lands, a Vamp Tutor, and a FoW is five life and they're dead.  Golem and Juggs makes using common cards more dicy.  Can you imagine if Tez stilled use Confidant?

[meadbert]

Or two Fetch lands and Vampiric Tutor might mean you are dead since they now have Vault/Key.

[Smmenen]

Consider this sequence:

T1: Lodestone Golem
T2: Smokestack or Juggernaut

Which turn two is better?  

Fully analyze.

The only advantage I see for Juggernaut there is Spell Pierce which is reasonably likely.
They could go land, Mox and then Pierce Smokey.

Past that, your great fear should be a Vault/Key win with Moxen.  Juggernaut and Golem swing for the win on turn 4.
By then you would have ramped Smokey to 2 anyway so Vault/Key cannot get there.
By turn 3 Golem and Juggs have swung for 15, but you are wide open to Vault/Key.
Meanwhile Smokey@1 with Golem messing up bounce makes Vault/Key difficult to pull off.

I saw turn 2 Smokey is better.

I said *fully* analyze, not give me a few possible situations in which Stack is better.

Fully analyze mean, consider a range of permutations around that sequence.

I can do what you just did.  

Consider:

Alternative Sequence 1:

Turn One:

Chalice, Mox, Shop, Lodestone

Turn Two:

Juggernaut OR Smokestack


All I've done is add a Chalice to the turn one play.   That forecloses your Time Vault + Key + Activation on turn four play, that simple addition.    

Now, which turn two is better?

Consider this sequence.

Alternative Sequence 2:

Turn One:

Mox, Shop, Lodestone

Turn Two:

Juggernaut OR Smokestack

Ancient Tomb or City of Traitors (or another Shop), Null Rod

It's very similar to the first sequence, except that we have Null Rod instead of Chalice

Now, which is better? Smokestack or Juggernaut?

Clearly Juggy, imo. 

But, these are just possibilities, just as Vault + Key plus multiple moxen is a possibility.  

That doesn't prove or disprove anything.  

My main contention is that Juggernaut is more synergistic, in the main, than Smokestack with Lodestone Golem.  

Regarding this scenario:
T1: Mox, Shop, Juggernaut; Underground Sea
T2: Wasteland their their Sea, attack

It looks like you will win, but same if Juggernaut had been Smokestack.  What if they do this slightly differently?
T1: Mox, Shop, Juggernaut; Mox, Key, Underground Sea
T2: Wasteland their their Sea (Response Vamp for Vault), attack;Sea, Vault
T3: Play something irrelevant like Golem, Juggs#2, Steel, Resistor, Chalice, Thorn, Wire; Win

You totally missed the point.  I wasn't offering up that example as a real example of a viable Vintage line of play.   Rather, I was using that example to illustrate the principle of Tempo, the idea that certain sequences rewind the game.   And then, with that principle clearly in mind, to show how every card in the deck attempts to do this.   That's the entire point of Juggernaut, which you don't understand.  

That's why I said:

T1: mox, shop juggernaut
T2: Sphere
T3: Sphere
T4: Sphere
T5: Sphere

Again, by Sphere I don't literally mean SPhere, but I mean practically speaking any lock part, whether it's Null Rod, Chalice, Sphere, Thorn, Sciultping Steel copying another Sphere efect, Tangle Wire, 3Sphere, Wasteland, or Trinisphere.   The idea is that Juggernaut followed by a sequence of lock parts creates tempo, such that you win the game.

I was trying to answer your question as to how Juggernaut is faster: that's how.

Now you are twisting around the analysis into other possibilities, such as if they have Vault Key, etc.    You are missing the broader point.    It's funny, when I try to answer your question, using general ideas, you then point out specific sequences that undermine those general points.  But if I use specific sequences, then you could talk in general about how those sequences aren't the general rule.    That's why I chose general principles rather than talking about specific sequences.  

It isn't my claim that Juggernaut is always optimal in MUD, or that Null Rod is always optimal.  I'm simply showing that there are reasons to include them, contrary to your absurd assertion that both cards are always wrong.    Secondly, I'm trying to show you how Juggernaut can be faster than Smokestack, and the answer is when you view every lock component as a tempo play that asymmetrically buys time to attack.

[meadbert]

Alternative Sequence 1:

Turn One:

Chalice, Mox, Shop, Lodestone

Turn Two:

Juggernaut OR Smokestack


All I've done is add a Chalice to the turn one play.   That forecloses your Time Vault + Key + Activation on turn four play, that simple addition.   

Now, which turn two is better?

Vault/Key is not forclosed at all.
They can still play Turn 1 Land, Key.
Then turn 2 Vault and turn 2 win.  The key difference is they cannot Vamp for Vault so they must have the combo to start with.
Either way, Chalice@0 + Lodestone on the play is an almost certain win already so what you play next is not that relevant.
I submit that in this case Sphere effects would be better than Juggs or Smokey anyway.
I would still rather have Smokestack since they will never have more than one permanent and you just auto win.
They cannot even Pierce it which is usually the main drawback.

Alternative Sequence 2:

Turn One:

Mox, Shop, Lodestone

Turn Two:

Juggernaut OR Smokestack

Ancient Tomb or City of Traitors (or another Shop), Null Rod

It's very similar to the first sequence, except that we have Null Rod instead of Chalice

Now, which is better? Smokestack or Juggernaut?

Clearly Juggy, imo. 
 

I would still rather have Smokestack here by far.
So once Lodestone Golem hits the primary threat is Vault/Key.
Rod should stop that but what if it is countered.
If your opponent is getting read to drop Vault/Key then they can let Juggernaut resolve and Force Null Rod.
Furthermore if they have Pierce they cannot even use it on Juggernaut and will have to use it on Rod, although presumably they would have played Vault or Key.

The advantage of Smokestack over Juggernaut here is that it is also Vault/Key hate so even if your opponent has a Force, Smokestack or Null Rod will get through.

This does show Null Rod's power though.

Do you see that how in all of these examples you might as well go turn 2 Mishra's Factory + lock components.
Then just swing for 19 by turn 4?

If you want to convince me that Juggernaut is superior to Smokestack you should probably be considering hands that do not start with turn two Lodestone Golem.

[Prospero]

Meadbert, I have enjoyed reading your excellent analysis in this thread.  Thank you for the contribution.

[TheBrassMan]

Meadbert spelled out what I was thinking pretty well.  I would like to add though, that the situations where smokestack wins out are multiplied in post-board games (which as we all know, are more common than preboard games).

with Lodestone+Smokestack it plays out like this
T1 lodestone                                          opponent plays land, has one mana
T2 smokestack attack player to 15             opponent plays land, has two mana and access to Nature's Claim
T3 ramp, attack to 10                              opponent plays land, has two mana and access to Nature's Claim
T4 attack to 5,     T5 attack to 0,
None of the opponents cards besides Claim ever become relevant

with Lodestone+ Juggernaut, it plays out:
T1 lodestone                              opponent plays land, has one mana
T2 jugg, attack to 15                  opponent plays land, has two mana and access to Nature's Claim
T3 attack to 5                            opponent plays land, has three mana and access to Hurkyl's Recall

If the opponent is running 4 claim and 0 hurkyls, this is largely irrelevant (though a single Claim does not beat either hand).  If they're running 3 Hurkyl's and 0 claim, it could easily be the difference between a win and a loss.  This is more important if they have a mox in their opening.  Then the Smokestack player is cutting off Rebuild, Energy Flux, and Rack and Ruin as well.  The only advantage to winning fast is cutting off the outs that their draw step would give them, but in many opposing deck configurations, the Smokestack cuts off many more outs than their draw step gives them.  As a player of blue decks, a resolved Juggernaut very often means "I need to draw a Hurkyl's fast or I'll lose", here a resolved Smokestack in the same situation means "I lose."

But of course as I just said, I'm a player of blue decks.  If my opponent played turn one workshop crucible go, I would not be excited to play a turn one smokestack - and a Juggernaut would be totally fine there.  There are certainly examples of situations where Juggernaut is superior, but I'm not sure the ones being thrown around are too conclusive.

[Troy_Costisick]

Okay,if he spends all three of his mana to play Hurkyl's Recall on his own turn, then what does he do?

[Smmenen]

If you want to convince me that Juggernaut is superior to Smokestack you should probably be considering hands that do not start with turn two Lodestone Golem.

I have been very clear that I am making no such argument. I very clearly stated what my goal was:

It isn't my claim that Juggernaut is always optimal in MUD, or that Null Rod is always optimal.  I'm simply showing that there are reasons to include them, contrary to your absurd assertion that both cards are always wrong.    Secondly, I'm trying to show you how Juggernaut can be faster than Smokestack, and the answer is when you view every lock component as a tempo play that asymmetrically buys time to attack.

You are the one who is trying to say that card A is better than Card B.   I was very clear that that's not my goal at all.  In fact, it's the opposite!  

This thread begins with the assertion that Null Rod and Juggernaut are ALWAYS wrong in MUD.   That's what this thread title states, and that's what the first post attempts to argue.

I devised a few scenarios where I felt that Juggernaut is superior to Smokestack.  That doesn't mean that I'm saying that Juggernaut is better than Smokestack.  Rather, I was devising scenarios so you could see that your claim that Juggernaut should never be in MUD is overly broad.  

Now, you've twisted those examples into thinking that I'm saying that Juggernaut is better than Smokestack!  Nothing could be further from the truth!  

In my MUD articles here and here . I reviewed every single MUD list that had made a top 8 since the printing of Lodestone Golem, and then I presented a comprehensive analysis of those lists, and a composite.   Then, I identified the major debates in MUD.

But my main point was that there are many ways to build MUD, and that players should select a build that is internally synergistic and metagame sensitive.   That's why I offered three different MUD lists in the second article, one that is Aggressive, one that using Smokestack, and one that uses Metalworker.  Each list looks every different.   In some lists, Juggernaut is optimal.  In some, it's not.   Your opening post is too broad, and fails to recognize the role that both Null Rod and Juggernaut plays.  Instead, it's just full of anecdotal examples of when and how these cards are weak, and doesn't prove the breadth of your assertions.  

You claim that Null Rod and Juggernaut are always wrong.  I'm showing that sometimes they are better than other cards.  That doesn't mean that they always are.  But that there is an argument for including Juggernaut and Null Rod.   That's why I also disagree with Andy when he says that if you aren't included Null Rod, your list is wrong, and if you include Juggernaut, your list is wrong.  I'm trying to get away from such bright line rules.   

Now, looking at those scenarios again:  

Alternative Sequence 1:

Turn One:

Chalice, Mox, Shop, Lodestone

Turn Two:

Juggernaut OR Smokestack


All I've done is add a Chalice to the turn one play.   That forecloses your Time Vault + Key + Activation on turn four play, that simple addition.    

Now, which turn two is better?

Vault/Key is not forclosed at all.

You are correct, it doesn't foreclose Vault Key, but it does foreclosure using other cards to assemble the combo.

In any case, that's completely irrellevant.  The question is: which card is better in this scenario? Smokestack or Juggernaut?   I'd rather have Juggernaut here.   The fact that they can win if they naturally draw Vault and Key and 3 lands is an out, but the vast, vast majority of the time you win with Juggernaut here.  Again, you are getting too bogged down in specifics.   Specifics are completely irrellevant because in Vintage we can construct scenarios that support or counter almost every assertion we could make.  

Alternative Sequence 2:

Turn One:

Mox, Shop, Lodestone

Turn Two:

Juggernaut OR Smokestack

Ancient Tomb or City of Traitors (or another Shop), Null Rod

It's very similar to the first sequence, except that we have Null Rod instead of Chalice

Now, which is better? Smokestack or Juggernaut?

Clearly Juggy, imo.  
 

I would still rather have Smokestack here by far.
So once Lodestone Golem hits the primary threat is Vault/Key.
Rod should stop that but what if it is countered.
If your opponent is getting read to drop Vault/Key then they can let Juggernaut resolve and Force Null Rod.
Furthermore if they have Pierce they cannot even use it on Juggernaut and will have to use it on Rod, although presumably they would have played Vault or Key.

The advantage of Smokestack over Juggernaut here is that it is also Vault/Key hate so even if your opponent has a Force, Smokestack or Null Rod will get through.

This does show Null Rod's power though.

You claim to have read my articles on MUD, yet I repeatedly raised similar situations showing the power of Null Rod.  You admit that Null Rod is not always wrong now?

The second thing I was trying to address is this:

I am still totally confused about how Juggernaut is faster than Smokestack.  Can someone type like a two sentence explanation?
And please do not say something silly like Smokestack with 1 soot counter is not effective.

This is the other main thing I was trying to answer.   The answer is Tempo.   I think I did a pretty good job of explaining this, but you pretty much ignored it:

I was using that example to illustrate the principle of Tempo, the idea that certain sequences rewind the game.   And then, with that principle clearly in mind, to show how every card in the deck attempts to do this.   That's the entire point of Juggernaut, which you don't understand.  

That's why I said:

T1: mox, shop juggernaut
T2: Sphere
T3: Sphere
T4: Sphere
T5: Sphere

Again, by Sphere I don't literally mean SPhere, but I mean practically speaking any lock part, whether it's Null Rod, Chalice, Sphere, Thorn, Sciultping Steel copying another Sphere efect, Tangle Wire, 3Sphere, Wasteland, or Trinisphere.   The idea is that Juggernaut followed by a sequence of lock parts creates tempo, such that you win the game.

I was trying to answer your question as to how Juggernaut is faster: that's how.

Every play in this deck can be a lock part or a tempo play.   I prefer a list that does *both*.  Juggernaut makes for great tempo plays.  Every time you play a Sphere, a Thorn, a Tangle Wire, etc you are playing mini Time Walks, but only if Juggernaut is in play, and you are doing something to take advantage of it.  That's how Juggernaut is faster.  It creates tempo, and wins the game faster than Smokestack.  




 

[TheBrassMan]

Okay,if he spends all three of his mana to play Hurkyl's Recall on his own turn, then what does he do?

He doesn't, he plays it on your turn, after any pre-attack decisions have been made, preferably with something like a chalice or sphere on the stack.  Then on the following turn he follows it up with something that wins (like a literal win, or a card that recovers, like a planeswalker, or flux, or force your replayed threat, whatever).  If he has the follow up, Jugg cost the match.  If he doesn't have the follow up, it didn't really matter which one you played.  Really it's when there's an accelerant involved and you start talking about 3 drops that it matters.  If there's a mox the smokestack is the difference between Rack and Ruin and not, and if he has to play a main phase rack and ruin on Jugg and Lodestone for some reason, he'll do so happily.

[Troy_Costisick]

Okay,if he spends all three of his mana to play Hurkyl's Recall on his own turn, then what does he do?

He doesn't, he plays it on your turn, after any pre-attack decisions have been made, preferably with something like a chalice or sphere on the stack.  Then on the following turn he follows it up with something that wins (like a literal win, or a card that recovers, like a planeswalker, or flux, or force your replayed threat, whatever).  If he has the follow up, Jugg cost the match.  If he doesn't have the follow up, it didn't really matter which one you played.  Really it's when there's an accelerant involved and you start talking about 3 drops that it matters.  If there's a mox the smokestack is the difference between Rack and Ruin and not, and if he has to play a main phase rack and ruin on Jugg and Lodestone for some reason, he'll do so happily.

If he plays Hurkyl's pre-attack with Sphere on the stack, the MUD pilot will certainly have enough mana by turn four to just replay Golem, and the blue player is back to being limited to 1 mana spells again and has only 5 life to spend on Fetches, Tutors, and FoW.  The attack would likely come first, though.  In which case, the MUD player would probably be able to replay his entire board. 

[MagiKarp]

If he plays Hurkyl's pre-attack with Sphere on the stack, the MUD pilot will certainly have enough mana by turn four to just replay Golem, and the blue player is back to being limited to 1 mana spells again and has only 5 life to spend on Fetches, Tutors, and FoW.  The attack would likely come first, though.  In which case, the MUD player would probably be able to replay his entire board.

It is certainly true that the MUD player will probably have the opportunity to rebuild most, if not all of their board that turn after Hurkyl's resolves, but the opponent has bought themselves at least one more turn in this scenario. In every game I have played in which I have given an opponent this opening using the reasoning that I was going to win on my next turn, I have almost invariably lost on that one turn.

Why give your opponent that additional opportunity?

[Troy_Costisick]

If he plays Hurkyl's pre-attack with Sphere on the stack, the MUD pilot will certainly have enough mana by turn four to just replay Golem, and the blue player is back to being limited to 1 mana spells again and has only 5 life to spend on Fetches, Tutors, and FoW.  The attack would likely come first, though.  In which case, the MUD player would probably be able to replay his entire board.

It is certainly true that the MUD player will probably have the opportunity to rebuild most, if not all of their board that turn after Hurkyl's resolves, but the opponent has bought themselves at least one more turn in this scenario. In every game I have played in which I have given an opponent this opening using the reasoning that I was going to win on my next turn, I have almost invariably lost on that one turn.

Why give your opponent that additional opportunity?

The thing is, he hasn't improved his position any.  He's back to having two sphere effects in play, staring at 5 or 10 power across the board, and being down to a small amount of life.  He'll have to cast Vault/Key under those circumstances.  That's not likely.

[meadbert]

T1: mox, shop juggernaut
T2: Sphere
T3: Sphere
T4: Sphere
T5: Sphere

Would Smokestack be better here?

What if they go turn 1 Tinker after your Juggernaut?
What if they let Juggernauth resolves, Pierce or Force Sphere and then Tinker turn 2?
What if they go turn 1 Mox, Key, Land, Vamp for Vault?
We if they are playing Oath?

[Smmenen]

T1: mox, shop juggernaut
T2: Sphere
T3: Sphere
T4: Sphere
T5: Sphere

Would Smokestack be better here?

First of all, that's a different question than the one you asked, which was: 'how is Juggernaut faster?'   

Secondly, there is no reason you can't run both Smokestack and Juggernaut.

But taking your question seriously, there are three possible answers:   Yes, No, It Depends/Maybe.   I think the correct answer is probably 'it depends,' which is why I reject your claim that Juggernaut (and Null Rod) should never be in MUD.   

It's also possible that the answer is not only unknown, but unknowable, at least practically speaking.   That also leads me to reject your claim that Juggernaut is always bad.   

Explanation: There are considerations that can't be easily measured or known.   For example, implicit in your question is the question of: is it better to win now or later?  Or, what outs does my opponent have if I try to win now?  And, what outs does my opponent have if I try to win later?  Compare the two answers to decide.   By winning later by playing Smokestack there, instead of Juggernaut, you give your opponent more time to draw more cards and see a larger mix of cards.   Part of the power of Juggernaut + using Spheres as Tempo is the fact that your opponent sees a much smaller mix of relevant cards.   They may see only 7 to 10 cards in which to draw something relevant.   Smokestack followed by those tempo plays gives them more time not just to do something (like Nature's Claim), but to find a relevant card.   With Juggernaut followed by consecutive lock pieces for tempo, your opponent has much less opportunity to *see* answers, regardless of whether they can use those answers.  And, some non trivial amount of the time, seeing those answers will permit them to use them, even with a strong soft lock.   

What if they go turn 1 Tinker after your Juggernaut?
What if they let Juggernauth resolves, Pierce or Force Sphere and then Tinker turn 2?
What if they go turn 1 Mox, Key, Land, Vamp for Vault?
We if they are playing Oath?

Those are all possibilities.  Those are all things that could happen.   And, in the right circumstances, you will make other plays that diminish these chances.  You aren't bound to play turn one Juggernaut if it's the wrong play. 

I could raise questions in the same vein about Turn 1 Smokestack:

What if they Wasteland or Strip Mine your Workshop, and you get locked under your own Spheres, even with Smokestack out, and therefore you can't keep playing permanents and you have to let the Stack die, and they play more lands than you and get control over the board position? 

[MagicMan]

Steve you mentioned the possibility of playing both Juggernaut and Smokestack together, which is exactly how my deck list has turned out the last few days that I have been working on it. Actually I'm  running Juggernaut, Smokestack, and Null Rod!  How about a list like this?

Magic Man - MUD

// Lands
    1 Strip Mine
    4 Mishra's Workshop
    1 Tolarian Academy
    4 Wasteland
    4 Ancient Tomb
    4 Mishra's Factory

// Creatures
    4 Lodestone Golem
    3 Juggernaut

// Spells
    1 Trinisphere
    4 Crucible of Worlds
    4 Sphere of Resistance
    4 Smokestack
    1 Sol Ring
    1 Mox Emerald
    1 Mox Jet
    1 Mox Pearl
    1 Mox Ruby
    1 Mox Sapphire
    1 Black Lotus
    3 Null Rod
    4 Chalice of the Void
    4 Tangle Wire
    1 Mana Crypt
    3 Thorn of Amethyst

[TheShop]

The most relevant part of this whole conversation is the opponent's ability to cast their mass bounce spell.  Anything that does not hinder them in that way would not be an option for me.  I agree with BrassMan's mana assessment the most.  Keeping them with limited options all along the way is the real goal.

Also, if I had the ability to drop turn 1 Chalice + X, I might be persuaded to play Chalice + Smokestack instead of Lodestone as that would keep them from ever getting to bounce mana (unless they are hinting pierce of course).  Playing smokestack baits them to cast force of will because they are likely to lose if it resolves and you will clear the way for a golem.  If you drop chalice + juggs, they are much less likely to force the juggs.  They are actually more likely to counter the chalice than a 5/3. 

I like the idea of smokey + any other lock component much better than juggs + any other lock component.  Smokey + sphere can lock them completely out of the game on its own.  Juggs + sphere lets them build out and win.  Smokey + chalice/rod acts similarly while juggs + chalice/rod allow them time to cast bounce.  Even if juggs is more synergistic with lodestone, he is not more synergistic with the 4 sphere, 4 chalice, 4 thorn...  I think I would rather play sculpting steel to have a second golem with some other utilities than have a jugg.

[meadbert]

So here is a play question.

You are on the play with Meandeck Mud preboard against Noble Fish with maindeck Predators.

Your opening hand is:
City of Traitors
Sphere of Resistance
Null Rod
Mana Vault
Sphere of Resistance
Mox Jet
Chalice of the Void

You have not made mulliganing decisions yet.  If you choose to keep, assume they also keep a hand of 7.

What do you do?

[Smmenen]

I talk about that hand in my articles.  In fact, I drew a hand just like that.  If you read my article you know I said to muligan that hand.  

Steve, this verges very closely on spam.  Not everyone who reads TMD has premium SCG access, nor should they be required to in order to understand the logic of your posts.  If you'd like to elaborate on your assertion so everyone can appreciate your thinking, by all means, please do.  But this post conveys very little beyond an exhortation to buy premium access to read your articles, which isn't a useful contribution to this discussion.  -DA

[meadbert]

I saw some similar hands, but not that one.
Also you were playing against Tez I thought and I did not know if that changed anything.

You listed a few kinds of hands not to keep.  Clearly this is a hand with no beaters, but you cannot mulligan to one of your 9 beaters all the time.
If you can win without an early beater, it seems dropping multiple Resistors on turn 1 should do it since that is up there in turn 1 Trinisphere land.

This might be "Bad Mana," but with 5 mana available on turn 1 including the two pieces of artifact mana to complement City of Traitors it is hard to see this as that bad.
If the mana is bad it would open the question of what is not bad mana?  Must you mulligan any hand without Academy, Shop or Tomb?
That seems like a losing strategy without Serum Powders.

Also going for that one good land is riskier against decks packing Wasteland since you may only get to use them for a turn anyway.

Should this hand really be mulliganed?

[Bill Copes]

Should this hand really be mulliganed?

If I knew I was playing against wastelands, then this is a dead hand that will probably fold without some seriously lucky topdecking.

Why is this hand an auto-mull against Tezz?  You don't need to blow your full load on turn one if you're afraid of shutting off your turn 2 plays.

What's wrong with turn one: City of Traitors, Mox Jet, tap jet to cast vault, chalice @ 0, tap city to cast resistor, pass?  You'll have 6 mana up on turn 2, to cast the follow up resistor + whatever threat/lock you may draw.  I do see that Null Rod is not so great with this hand.

[meadbert]

Rod is not terrible.  Mana Vault is not really shut off since you get your first use which is the most important use anyway.
Basically you are just shutting off your Mox and you have to expect to shut off a mox on average.

[Bill Copes]

Rod is not terrible.  Mana Vault is not really shut off since you get your first use which is the most important use anyway.
Basically you are just shutting off your Mox and you have to expect to shut off a mox on average.

What you say is true, but if you ponder the next couple of turns, it's kind of a dead card.  You don't want to cast it turn 2, because after you tap out vault, you will functionally have only 2 mana in the consecutive turns  . . . unless you luck into a shop or academy.  Chalice on 0 is already cutting the opponent out of most of their acceleration, so it's kind of redundant.